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State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for Public Policy and Social Research [email protected] 517.353.2961
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Page 1: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

State of the State Survey

Summer 2017

Charles L. Ballard

Professor, Department of Economics

Director, State of the State Survey

Institute for Public Policy and Social Research

[email protected]

517.353.2961

Page 2: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

State of the State Survey

Summer 2017

Michigan Residents Give

Thumbs Up to Economy,

Thumbs Down to Elected Leaders

Page 3: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

About SOSS Wave 74

954 Interviews Completed

April 19, 2017 – July 30, 2017

Margin of Error: + 3.17%

Male: 48.4% Female: 51.6%

White: 75.5% Black: 13.4%

Page 4: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

President Trump received a rating

of “excellent” or “good” from

28% of Michigan residents.

That’s lower than Clinton or

Obama ever received, but higher

than George W. Bush received in

his last two years in office.

Page 5: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Excellent Good Fair Poor

8.6

19.4 20.6

51.4

Pe

rce

nt

Michigan Residents' Ratings of President Trump's Performance, Summer 2017

Page 6: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

35.4

44.3

49.5

56.0

53.0

55.1

40.8

66.9

47.4

42.3

32.4

27.5

20.5

17.3

57.7

36.9

43.1

41.5

44.0

37.6 39.5

43.0

49.6

28.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pe

rce

nt

Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating U.S. President's Performance as "Excellent" or "Good," 1995-2017

Clinton

Bush

Obama

Trump

Page 7: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

We asked about President

Trump’s ban on travel from six

Muslim-majority countries:

Response Percentage

Strongly approve 21.0

Somewhat approve 20.3

Somewhat disapprove 16.6

Strong disapprove 40.4

Page 8: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Percent

Rating Trump

Opinion of the “Excellent” or

Travel Ban: “Good”

Strongly Approve 76.1

Somewhat Approve 38.7

Somewhat Disapprove 35.6

Strongly Disapprove 17.1

Page 9: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Governor Snyder’s approval

ratings improved slightly,

but his favorable ratings

remained below 30%.

Page 10: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Excellent Good Fair Poor

5.2

24.1

37.0

33.7

Pe

rce

nt Michigan Residents' Ratings of

Governor Snyder's Performance, Summer 2017

Page 11: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

44.5

31.5

19.3

33.0

36.8 35.5 34.0

29.2

35.6

39.2 37.1 37.9

35.6

41.8

25.3 25.2

29.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Pe

rce

nt

Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating Governor Snyder's Performance as "Excellent" or "Good," 2011-2017

Page 12: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

55.0

50.6

46.7

52.5

49.5

43.7 43.6

57.2

48.7

35.3

34.4

25.3

23.0

31.0

20.7

31.8

35.1

32.9

38.1 38.7

25.3 25.2

29.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pe

rce

nt

Year

Percentage of Michigan Residents Rating Performance of Governors as "Excellent" or "Good," 1995-2016

Engler

Granholm

Snyder

Page 13: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Excellent Good Fair Poor

8.6

19.4 20.6

51.4

5.2

24.1

37.0 33.7

Pe

rce

nt

Michigan Residents' Ratings of the Performances of President Trump and Governor Snyder,

Summer 2017

Trump

Snyder

Page 14: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Attitudes by

Race and Gender

Page 15: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Views of Michigan Residents

by Race and Sex

State of Michigan

Women Men Whites Blacks

Trump

“Excellent” or “Good”

28.0% 22.8% 33.3% 31.1% 7.7%

Snyder

“Excellent” or “Good”

29.3% 26.2% 32.5% 31.6% 12.2%

Page 16: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Attitudes by Political Party

Page 17: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Views of Michigan

Residents

by Political Party

State of

Michigan Republican Independent Democrat

Trump

“Excellent” or

“Good” 28.0% 69.3% 28.4% 2.7%

Snyder

“Excellent” or

“Good” 29.3% 57.4% 31.8% 9.2%

Page 18: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Regional Attitudes

Page 19: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Views of Residents from Different Regions in Michigan

* Allegan, Barry, Ionia, Kent, Montcalm, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Ottawa Counties

State of Michigan

City of Detroit

Wayne, Oakland, Macomb

Grand Rapids Area*

Trump

“Excellent” or “Good”

28.0% 14.7% 28.0% 29.8%

Snyder

“Excellent” or “Good”

29.3% 14.4% 31.6% 26.7%

Page 20: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Assessments of the current

financial situation continued the

upward trend of the last 8 years.

The percentage saying “excellent”

or “good” rose to its highest

level since 2002.

Page 21: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

13.5

48.8

28.8

6.4

2.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Excellent Good Just Fair Not So Good Poor

Perc

en

t Michigan Residents' Assessments of Their Current Financial Situation,

Summer 2017

Page 22: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

55.1

60.9

60.2

61.4

64.1 63.9 62.9

62.2

54.0

56.4

54.9

49.3 50.8

43.4 44.0

47.3 47.3

52.1 52.8

51.9

58.9

56.9 58.2

62.3

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Pe

rce

nt

Year

Percent of Michigan Residents Who Rate Their Current Financial Situation As "Excellent" or "Good," 1994-2017

Page 23: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

When asked whether they

are better off than one year

ago, Michigan residents

gave ratings that were

slightly better than in the

previous round.

Page 24: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

47.8

31.5

20.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Better Off About the Same Worse Off

Pe

rce

nt

Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better Off Than One Year Ago, Summer 2017

Page 25: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

52.6

50.2

53.2 55.8

61.6

48.4

40.2

35.4

31.7

27.4

19.8

14.4

23.0 26.2

36.3

38.1

49.7

43.8

44.9

47.8

18.5

17.7

18.1

14.3

15.2

24.2

31.8

44.5 44.6

59.6

62.6

50.6

45.1

35.6

34.6

31.3

23.0 25.9

21.9

20.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Pe

rce

nt

Year

Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Are Better Off or Worse Off Than One Year Ago, 1995-2017

Better Off

Worse Off

Page 26: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Michigan residents’ assessment of

whether they will be better off

one year from now declined

somewhat from the previous

survey.

Page 27: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

56.7

21.9 21.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Better Off About the Same Worse Off

Perc

en

t

Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will Be Better Off One Year From Now, Summer 2017

Page 28: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

57.2 58.6

65.9

66.6

70.5

60.0

66.2

59.8 60.1

50.5

51.4

45.1 46.4

48.6

54.0

48.4

56.9

54.2

56.9

64.0

58.7

60.7

56.7

13.1

12.3 11.9 9.5

10.7

19.9

14.7

19.1

20.1

26.1

29.2

35.5 34.7 33.1

28.5

30.4

23.2

25.8

21.9 16.9 19.0

16.7

21.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pe

rce

nt

Year

Michigan Residents' Beliefs About Whether They Will Be Better Off One Year From Now, 1995-2017

Better Off

Worse Off

Page 29: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

For all three of these

measures of consumer

confidence, the ratings

are much better than in

2006-2011, but still lower

than in 1999.

Page 30: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Reports of current financial situation, for

different groups of Michigan residents:

“Excellent” “Not So Good”

or “Good” or “Poor”

State of Michigan 62.3% 8.9%

Men 63.9 7.9

Women 60.7 9.9

White 65.4 8.6

Black 39.1 13.0

Page 31: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Reports of current financial situation, for

different groups of Michigan residents: “Excellent” “Not So Good”

or “Good” or “Poor”

State of Michigan 62.3% 8.9%

Republican 78.9 2.7

Independent 61.7 8.1

Democrat 55.7 13.0

Income Above $100K 85.4 1.6

Income $50K - $100K 72.4 4.4

Income $20K - $50K 43.4 14.0

Income Below $20K 23.7 28.9

Page 32: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

Reports of current financial situation, for

different groups of Michigan residents: “Excellent” “Not So Good”

or “Good” or “Poor”

State of Michigan 62.3% 8.9%

Aged 65 and Over 69.7 6.2

Aged 30-64 59.8 11.4

Aged 18-29 63.9 3.1

City of Detroit 59.4 12.7

Wayne, Oakland, Macomb 63.6 17.7

Grand Rapids Area 67.1 5.7

Page 33: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

How to Learn More about SOSS:

http://ippsr.msu.edu/SOSS/

Charles Ballard: [email protected]

517.353.2961

Matt Grossmann: [email protected]

517.884.8640

Cynthia Kyle: [email protected]

517.353.1731

Graham Pierce: [email protected]

517.884.0364

Page 34: State of the State Survey Summer 2017...State of the State Survey Summer 2017 Charles L. Ballard Professor, Department of Economics Director, State of the State Survey Institute for

THANK YOU!


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