STATUS OF WHEAT PRODUCTION

AND FOOD SECURITY IN MOROCCO Nsarellah N.

On behalf of the

Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Morocco.

Food security conference

8 – 11 Octobre 2012

Addis Abeba Ethiopia

Outline :

• Current wheat situation and trends in Morocco

• Constraints: wheat production and food security

• Conclusions: long term research goals and

development strategies

Wheat in Morocco • Bread wheat > 2Mha, durum wheat 1Mha • Major staple, consumption: 220 Kg/cap/yr. • 36 Millions people, producction of 5 to 6 MMT. • Mainly in rainfed / drought-prone areas • Mediterranean climate, F-W-S growing season, mild winter, wide regional variability • Highly variable precipitation pattern and large inter-annual fluctuations.

Wheat and barley, perfectly fit for :

• Environment (rainfall, Tc, variability ..)

• Technology (Agronomy, rotation, weed

control, ...)

• Full integration with animal production

• Profitability (500 US$ - 2000 US$ /

ha)

• Mediterranean culture

Description of the value chain

• 1.2 Million producers, 300,000 market oriented

• Industrial millers: 211 units (143 BW, 58DW 19

barley) capacity 9,1 Million MT.

• Small millers 10,000 units 35% of volumes

• Service and products providers (seed, fertilizers,

phyto sanitary, agricultural equipment

• Collectors, traders, intermediaries, storers,

distribution

• Traditional processing and products. Modern

bakeries, couscous / pasta factories.

• Organisations of professionnals

Recent history

• Dams and irrigation plans (>1 MHa)

• Financing and agricultural banks

• Intensification programs (fertilizers, mechanisation etc.. )

• Breadwheat intensification pgm 1980s

• Collecting and pricing for breadwheat.

• Variable taxation of imports / liberalisation

• Storage facilities support,

• Agricultural Insurances

• Green Morocco plan

Areas planted

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 0001960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Years

10

00

Ha BW

DW

Barley

Policy favoring

breadwheat

Wheat Production

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Years

x 1

000 Q

x

Breadwheat

Durum wheat

Wheat Yields

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Years

Qx/h

a

BW

DW

Sufficiency rate 1995 - 2007

y = 2,4638x + 35,762

R2 = 0,3143

y = 0,5438x + 62,269

R2 = 0,027

0102030405060708090

100

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-200

0

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

Years

%

co

vera

ge

Tx couverture BT

Tx couverture BD

Linéaire (Tx couverture BT)

Linéaire (Tx couverture BD)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

576mm639mm

478mm

438mm

383mm

Moving averages of rainfall in Meknes (favorable wheat area)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1 910 1 920 1 930 1 940 1 950 1 960 1 970 1 980 1 990 2 000 2 010 2 020

Plu

vio

mé

trie

(m

m) 378mm

1915 - 1939

365mm

1940 - 1979

293mm

1980 - 2006

Rupture

Settat

Moving averages of rainfall in Settat (dryland wheat area)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rende

ment (Q

/ha)

Contribut ion to deviat ion

E

G

GE

contribution to deviation

Genotype(G)

Location (L)

Year (Y)

G x L

G x Y

L x Y

G x L x Y

In this case study:

The environment is responsible

for 50 - 89% Of the variation

(most of it related

to water availability)

The genotype, (G and GE) is

responsible for 11 to 50 %

24 varieties,

5 years and

five sites

Water is the main stress and is affecting all

stresses

Good years stresses

• Waterlogging related root rots

• Yellow and brown rusts

• Septoria, helminthosporium

• Hessain fly, sawfly,

• End of season heat

Dry years stresses

• Water stress

• Hessian fly

• Dryland root rot

• Yellow rusts, leaf rusts

• heat

Water availability

also affects

farmers

Behaviour too

Wheat research in Morocco

• Breeding, Biotechnology, genetic resources

conservation

• Crop management, conservation agriculture ..

• Plant protection IPM.

• Grain quality improvement, add value of end products

• Socio-economy

• Research and development

• INRA is main, 12 exp. Sites, 300 researchers.

• Long established work with CGIAR centers (CIMMYT and ICARDA) Joint activities, networks and projects on related fields with ICARDA. Numerous collaboration in USA and EU.

• North Africa and S. S. Africa

Recent policy (Green Morocco Plan, or GMP)

• Encourages aggregation and organization of production • Agregation includes all activities in value chain; It could be related to end production at the level of the farm, the community and the national market. • State support is for accepted integrated projects. • Helps investments in inputs, machinery or infrastructure that would improve productivity; • Certified seed is one of the emphasized factors. • GMP aims at improving productivity while cutting on wheat areas in drought prone zones.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728

Années

Ren

dem

ent (

Q/h

a)

1979

1987

1995 2000

1999

1997

1981

1980 1983

1993

1992

1982

1984

1985

1989

1990

1998

2001

2002

2005

1986

1994

1991

1988

1996

2004

2003

2006

Trends in breadwheat

Zones to be

unsupported

Basic constraints still remaining 1. Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and

abiotic stresses: High Risk for investments

2. Small size and fragmentation of holding: technical difficulties hampers modernisation of production

3. The value chain is continuously changing: relations, prices and services, role of the state, world market. etc..

ADD Interaction of all above

Our response to constraints

1) Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and abiotic

stresses: High Risk for investments

• Scientific research : crop production technologies, crop

varieties, natural resources management, grain quality,

basic scientific and socio economic knowledge.. Results are

all there but still needs adoption (C. seeds) and impact

•What about development alternatives (irrigation ?) Yields in irrigated areas can be > 5T/ha at the farm, Supplemental

irrigation may double yield in dry years. 150 dams,

Our response to constraints (2)

Small size and fragmentation of holdings:

technical difficulties hampers modernisation

of production

• Development: Agregation, and other forms of

farmers organisation.

• State facilitates or subsidizes modern agriculture

(projects)

Our response to constraints (3)

The value chain is continuously changing: clients

preferences, relations, prices and services, role of

the state, world market. etc..

• Forum for networking and contacts of value chain or

system.

• State subsidises / facilitates agregated production. (Millers,

seed producers, producers etc.. )

•Agregator can be any of stake holders. Helping other

private entrepreneurs establish.

Conclusions Research must continue: Diagnosing, preventing

losses, developping technical solutions But the greatest remaining challenges are : 1. Technology transfer

2. Value chain integration

3. State policies and legislations

4. Integration of research in the value chain

Closing comments:

• States should schift from a cost benefit analysis

to an oportunity cost analysis to better adress food

security.

• Climate and global market changes are and will

be impacting Morocco and North Africa heavily;

they should be our main worry in tackling food

security.

Drier, Hotter, & More Variable

Thank you for your attention