HOW SOME DATA LIVE, SOME DIE, AND SOME ARE BORN TOO LATE: Thoughts on the Ephemera of the Houston

Surveys STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG

The Rice University Ephemera and Archives Conference

2 December 2011

KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2011)

Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 30 successive representative samples of Harris County residents.

In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.

The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of …

a restructured economy and

a demographic revolution.

These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HOUSTON (1982–2011)

THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY

The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city and state were so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a high-technology, knowledge-based, fully globalized economy. There are two compelling consequences of this new reality . . .

The growing inequalities. The traditional blue-collar path to a middle class standard of living has largely disappeared. Most good jobs today require technical skills and educational creden-tials; and the income inequalities, due to educational disparities and government inaction, are growing ever wider and deeper.

The new importance of quality of place. A city’s prospects will now depend increasingly on its ability to attract and retain the most innovative companies and talented individuals. To prosper in today’s economy, Houston will need to grow into a much more aesthetically and environmentally appealing destination.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2010)

With the passage of time, important questions from earlier years may fade into insignificance. But these, at least, can be archived and remain to serve as part of the historical record.

Some examples:

* The anticommunism of the Cold-War era (1982-1993).

* The definitive transformations in family roles (1982-2005).

* The way Houstonians responded to the Katrina evacuees (2006).

ARCHIVAL ITEMS THAT ARE NOW PRI-MARILY OF HISTORICAL INTEREST

THE ANTICOMMUNISM OF THE COLD-WAR ERA (1982-1993)

THE DEFINITIVE TRANSFORMATIONS IN FAMILY ROLES (1982-2005)

THE PERCEIVED EFFECTS OF THE KATRINA EVACUEES (HOUSTON AREA SURVEY, 2006)

These are the questions that should have been asked in the earlier years. That opportunity has come and gone, and the insights they might have provided can never be retrieved.

Some examples:

* Is pessimism about the future of the American economy increasing?

* Is there a growing recognition of the importance of a college education in shaping economic outcomes?

* Is there a new interest among area residents in mixed-use, pedestrian-oriented urbanism?

THE REAL EPHEMERA: CRITICAL SURVEY QUESTIONS THAT WERE NEVER ASKED

IS PESSIMISM ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY INCREASING ?

IS THERE A GROWING RECOGNITION OF THE IMPORTANCE OF A COLLEGE EDUCATION ?

IS THERE A NEW INTEREST AMONG HOUSTONIANS IN MIXED-USE, PEDESTRIAN-ORIENTED URBANISM?

* Survey research has the potential to provide important additions to the historical archive, tracking the shifts in public perceptions that accompany societal developments.

* But this can happen only if researchers have the foresight to ask the right questions at the right time, in order to document the changes that occur in public opinion.

* Thus the greatest loss of all is in the questions that cannot be archived because no one thought to ask them in the earlier years. These are the real ephemera, the ones that survey researchers regret the most.

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS: EPHEMERA AND ARCHIVES IN SURVEY RESEARCH

CONTACT INFORMATION

THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITYPROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON,

CO-DIRECTORS

For copies of the following publications:

the report on the first 24 years of Houston surveys, 2005

the report on six major sectors of the greater Houston region, 2007

or to download additional reports and PowerPoint slides

Please visit the institute’s website:

www.kinder.rice.eduPhone: 713-348-4132 or kinder@rice.edu