STEPsScenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task

1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action +

Additional Research

Gothenburg, Sweden, 15 June 2006Gothenburg, Sweden, 15 June 2006

Carlos MarquesTIS.PT, Portugal

Carlos.marques@tis.pt

STATE OF THE ART IN TRANSPORT AND ENERGY

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 2

• Background context• Road transport technologies• Other transport modes• Prospects on Transportation Fuels• Energy Supply to the Transport System• Policies on transport and energy• Conclusions

STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATIONSTRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION

Developing long term scenarios on the future of the European Transport System requires a thorough understanding of the context to which transportation is subject.

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 3

• ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TRANSPORT SECTORTRANSPORT SECTOR

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

EU-25 TOTAL EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Source: EUROSTAT, Energy, Transport, and Environment Indicators, ed.2005[1], p.137

[1]http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/pls/portal/url/page/PGP_MISCELLANEOUS/PGE_DOC_DETAIL?p_product_code=KS-DK-05-001

““transportation is clearly a fundamental cause of climate change” transportation is clearly a fundamental cause of climate change” (EC, 2004)(EC, 2004)

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 4

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

• UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSPORTATION DRIVING UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSPORTATION DRIVING FORCESFORCES

Projected Evolution of Mobility (pass.km) and GDP (EU-15), 1980 … 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Index (

1980=

100

)

Passenger-km

GDP

Source: Eurostat, 2001; EEA, 2000

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 5

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

• UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSPORTATION DRIVING UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSPORTATION DRIVING FORCESFORCES

Car ownership rate vs. GDP per capita

Source: UNEP Report 2002 [1]

[1] http://www.acea.be/ACEA/20020518PublicationUNEPReport.pdf

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 7

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

• EVOLVING CAR MANUFATURING CONTEXTEVOLVING CAR MANUFATURING CONTEXT

Source: Eurostat, 2001; EEA, 2000

Disruptive technologies come at high cost

The challenge for vehicle manufacturers is about making winning bets on technology, at high risk.

The emerging strategies that each car manufacturer adopts along the evolving pathway will therefore play a crucial role

There is a strong interdependency between Car Manufacturers Strategies and Energy Sources and Costs

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 8

STATE OF THE ART IN TRANSPORTATION STATE OF THE ART IN TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIESTECHNOLOGIES

ROAD TRANSPORT

•Internal Combustion Engines •Natural gas vehicles •Hybrids •Electric vehicles •Fuel Cells and hydrogen

RAILWAYS

MARITIME

AIR TRANSPORT

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 9

PROSPECTS ON TRANSPORTATION FUELSPROSPECTS ON TRANSPORTATION FUELSTransport fuel pathways

Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2004 - Sustainable Mobility Project

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 10

PROSPECTS ON TRANSPORTATION FUELSPROSPECTS ON TRANSPORTATION FUELSMatrix of possible fuel/propulsion system combinations

Source: Frost & Sullivan in WBCSD[1], 2004

[1] World Business Council on Sustainable Development, 2004

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 12

ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMPrimary Energy SourcesPrimary Energy Sources

ENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE EU-30

Source: EC Green paper of Security of Energy Supply, 2000

The situation as of 2000 was already acknowledged to be far from promising. It was clearly stated that ‘…even if the EU has managed to reduce its energy intensity (the quantity of energy needed to produce a unit of wealth), all the warning lights are flashing. Energy consumption is rising by 1 to 2% a year. Dependence on EU countries is starting to rise above 50% again. Our scarce domestic resources are beginning to run out; in the case of coal, we talk about ‘economic depletion’, as it is far too expensive to mine…’

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 13

ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMPrimary Energy Sources

DISCOVERY OF REGULAR OIL CURRENT AND FUTURE

(based on Exxon Mobil Data, 2002)

Source: CAMPBELL C.J., 2005

EU CRUDE OIL SUPPLY

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 14

ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMWell-to-Wheel Fuel Energy Balances

• To shift from a oil based transport system will require adapting infrastructure of supply depending on choice of technology.

• Besides the cost of any changes in the supply infrastructure, the most important balance will be the well to wheel balancing, ensuring that effective improvements in energy dependence from fossil fuels and their external consequences are taken into account

PROBLEMS WITH PRODUCTION OF ENERGY CARRIERS, SUCH AS HYDROGEN

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 16

Improved DIESEL

Price

Refuel

Investments

Security of supply

Cost-effective and commercial potential

N/A

None in terms of infrastructure

Lower Energy use & emissions

Slightly Less imports

Biofuels

Somewhat Expensive

Potentially 100% indigenous

Can be mixed in the current diesel or gasoline

Energy/ Environment

May share current distribution channels

Advantageous CO2 balance

ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 17

NGV’s

Cost-effective and with commercial potentialLimited places to refuelCan be used in many existing cars with modifications. Investment is neededPotentially 20-25% less consumption and CO2

emissions than gasoline

Is also imported and similar to oil “supply constraints”.

Hydrogen

Expensive

New cars needed. Investment needed in storage and distribution.

Need investments in production and distribution

Depending on how electricity is produced. No emissions from the car.

Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity.

Price

Refuel

Investments

Security of supply

Energy/ Environment

ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 18

Electric cars

Batteries are costly

Slow but easy recharging

More efficient. Emissions depending on how electricity is produced. Zero Local emissions

Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity

Hybrid cars

Still expensive. Trend is to decrease price/Scale Prod.

Few in Energy Supply

Some decrease in Fuel Dependence.

Up to 30% fuels savings and corresponding emissions, in particular Urban

Everywhere (Diesel, NGV…)

Few, apart from vehicles

Price

Refuel

Investments

Security of supply

Energy/ Environment

ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 19

EU POLICIESEU POLICIES

EUROPEAN POLICIES ON TRANSPORTS AND ENERGY

•Common Transport Policy•Vehicle Taxation•Fuel Taxation•EC Policy on Biofuels•Alternative Fuels Support Policy•EC Procurement of Cleaner Transport Technologies

ENERGY SECURITY POLICY

•EU Priorities on Oil Security (EC Green Paper)•Constraints to Security of Energy Supply•Disruption Risk Mitigation Strategies

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 20

EU POLICIESEU POLICIES

The EC GREEN PAPER expressed the following 3 major constraints to the SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY:

• GEOPOLITICAL constraints weigh heavily on the energy sector, hence with a strong impact in transportation. Europe imports 50% of its needs. Around 2030 this figure will have risen to 70%., concerning almost exclusively fossil fuels if nothing is done.

• ENVIRONMENTAL constraints are making themselves felt in daily life. It is necessary to lay the groundwork to produce energy or to travel in a way which is more sustainable. Fossil fuels give rise to many environmental problems connected with their combustion and transport applications

• GEOLOGICAL constraints in 50 years, there will be almost no more oil or gas. Alternatively, it will be very costly to extract these products, in a way which bears no relation to current prices. In other words, these natural resources exist in finite quantities and we are just squandering them.

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 22

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Through 2010 Initiatives will be taken to slow the growth rate of oil use / CO2 as much as possible. To do that, NGVs (ICE), Biofuels and HYBRID vehicles seem promising alternatives right from today, with the particularity that HYBRIDs may clear the way to fully electric vehicles relying either on improved energy storage capacity or on Fuel Cells running on Hydrogen

After 2010 Expectations seem to be towards a more sustainable transport system, featuring near-zero CO2 emissions in urban contexts and decreased relative dependence on oil (but perhaps not in absolute values), based on a growing share of an improved generation of EVs and HYBRID based on NG, Biofuels and Diesel, as well as ICE improvements. Fuel cells hold a potential, yet to be released, depending on large scale clean production and distribution of Hydrogen.

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006 Slide 24

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

HENCE, the challenge is not only to consider what we know already today, but also what might result from influencing key drivers such as growing evidence of climate change consequences, including in the economy itself, rising oil prices in result of a possible shift from a mild demand driven context to a more severe oil supply driven context.

STEPS acknowledged the existence of worrying signals regarding conventional energy availability and severe environmental consequences, as underscored by key international organizations.

The RECOMMENDATION of this preliminary part of the study was that the usually seen as “BAU” trends and perspectives should rather be seen as optimistic viewpoints in the development of scenarios, as worrying signals are consistently pointing at the emergence of disruptive developments in the ENERGY / TRANSPORTATION conventional relationship.

STEPsScenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects

Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task

1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action +

Additional Research

Gothenburg, Sweden, 15 June 2006Gothenburg, Sweden, 15 June 2006

STEPs Project – Scenarios for STEPs Project – Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply Transport and Energy Supply

and their and their Potential EffectsPotential Effects

Thank youThank you