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Sterlite Technologies Ltd (STL) is a largest manufacturer of Power Conductors, Optic Fiber and Optic Fiber Cables. It is expanding its capacities in Optic Fiber from 9 mn km to 20 mn km and in Power Conductors from 160,000 MT to 200,000 MT by FY12, to capture a significant market share of the emerging demand in both these industries, globally. The company is at a significant advantage to its global peers due to its geographic location and lower cost of production due to its backward integration. Power Conductors and Optic Fibers demand to augur well for STL STL holds 25% market share for conductors in India and holds 14% market share in Africa. Over the next few years, huge spending of US $ 150 bn is likely on T&D grids globally. Majority of the order in India for conductors would be floated by PGCIL. PGCIL being the largest customer of STL, the growth in volume of conductors for STL would be in excess of 20% over three years. The demand for fiber optics will be driven by internet penetration and broadband subscribers in China and India, STL has 45% market share in India and 7% market share in China. We expect STL’s bare fiber optic production volume to grow at a CAGR of 37% and Fiber Optic Cable production to grow at CAGR of 27%. Capacity expansion would drive the volumes STL is expanding its capacities from 160,000 MT to 200,000 MT by FY12. It is also in the process of expanding its current capacity of 9mn km of fiber optic to 20 mn km by FY12. We believe that the company would enjoy economies of scale post expansion and would enable sales volume in conductors to grow at a CAGR of 22% from FY09 to FY12 and sales volume in fiber optic and fiber optic cables to grow at CAGR of 39% and 29% respectively from FY09 to FY12. Forayed as an EPC contractor into Power Transmission projects via BOOM STL has set a vision to become a leading player in Power Transmission. In line with this vision the company has been able to win the first mega independent power project from Power Finance Corporation Ltd. We believe that this segment could catapult the company’s revenues and on completion of the project it will position it as a key player in the Power Transmission projects. Net sales to grow at CAGR 13% over next two years. We believe that the capacity expansion would drive enable the company to grow its net sales by 13% CAGR from FY09 to FY12. We expect that the realization for Optic Fiber would stay around $8/fkm and for Optic Fiber Cable would stay around $22/fkm. However the realization of the conductors normally remain volatile. OUTLOOK & VALUATION STL is on an expansion mode for all its manufacturing capacities and envisions to capture a substantial market share in the next two years. The environment for both its products power conductors as well as optic fiber is very conducive for investments. The global demand for Optic Fiber would be driven by China and India and that for Power Conductors will be fueled by additional investment in transmission and distribution lines in India. With expanded capacities we believe it will enjoy economies of scale and improve its margins to 16% by FY12. At CMP of Rs.405 the stock is trading 12x FY11E EPS of Rs. 32.6 & 10x FY12E EPS of Rs. 41.7. Given the proven track record of the management, we believe that STL will be able to achieve the expected growth and thus we initiate coverage with a BUY rating on the Company with a target price of Rs.500 (based on 12x its FY12E EPS of Rs 41.7). Initiating Coverage Sterlite Technologies Ltd. March 02, 2010 BUY MEDIUM RISK PRICE Rs.405 TARGET Rs.500 POWER SHARE HOLDING (%) Promoters 43.52 FII 4.15 FI / MF 17.44 Body Corporates 9.66 Public & Others 25.24 STOCK DATA Reuters Code Bloomberg Code STTE.BO SOTL.IN BSE Code NSE Symbol 532374 STRTECH Market Capitalization* Rs. 31,753 mn US$ 690 mn Shares Outstanding* 78.4 mn 52 Weeks (H/L) Rs.443/48 Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 105,031 Shares Price Performance (%) 1 M 2M 3M 2 31 70 200 Days EMA: Rs. 286 *On fully diluted equity shares Part of Bonanza Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the report For private Circulation Only. Sushil Financial Services Private Limited Member : BSEL, SEBI Regn.No. INB/F010982338 | NSEIL, SEBI Regn.No.INB/F230607435. Office : 12, Homji Street, Fort, Mumbai 400 001. Phone: +91 22 40936000 Fax: +91 22 22665758 Email : [email protected] KEY FINANCIALS Y/E Mar Revenue (Rs mn) APAT (Rs mn) AEPS (Rs) AEPS (% Ch.) P/E (x) ROCE (%) ROE (%) P/BV (x) FY09 22892 1165 18.0 22.7 22 13 20 4 FY10E 23457 1964 30.4 68.4 13 18 27 3 FY11E 28807 2559 32.6 7.4 12 19 26 3 FY12E 32982 3269 41.7 27.7 10 20 27 2 ANALYST Viral Shah | +91 22 4093 5045 [email protected] SALES: Devang Shah | +91 22 4093 6060/61 [email protected] Nishit Shah | +91 22 4093 6074 [email protected]
Transcript
Page 1: Sterlite Technologies Ltd. · Sterlite Technologies Ltd (STL) is a largest manufacturer of Power Conductors, Optic Fiber and Optic Fiber Cables. It is expanding its capacities in

Sterlite Technologies Ltd (STL) is a largest manufacturer of Power Conductors, Optic Fiber and Optic Fiber Cables. It is expanding its capacities in Optic Fiber from 9 mn km to 20 mn km and in Power Conductors from 160,000 MT to 200,000 MT by FY12, to capture a significant market share of the emerging demand in both these industries, globally. The company is at a significant advantage to its global peers due to its geographic location and lower cost of production due to its backward integration.

Power Conductors and Optic Fibers demand to augur well for STL

STL holds 25% market share for conductors in India and holds 14% market share in Africa. Over the next few years, huge spending of US $ 150 bn is likely on T&D grids globally. Majority of the order in India for conductors would be floated by PGCIL. PGCIL being the largest customer of STL, the growth in volume of conductors for STL would be in excess of 20% over three years. The demand for fiber optics will be driven by internet penetration and broadband subscribers in China and India, STL has 45% market share in India and 7% market share in China. We expect STL’s bare fiber optic production volume to grow at a CAGR of 37% and Fiber Optic Cable production to grow at CAGR of 27%.

Capacity expansion would drive the volumes

STL is expanding its capacities from 160,000 MT to 200,000 MT by FY12. It is also in the process of expanding its current capacity of 9mn km of fiber optic to 20 mn km by FY12. We believe

that the company would enjoy economies of scale post expansion and would enable sales volume in conductors to grow at a CAGR of 22% from FY09 to FY12 and sales volume in fiber optic and fiber optic cables to grow at CAGR of 39% and 29% respectively from FY09 to FY12.

Forayed as an EPC contractor into Power Transmission projects via BOOM

STL has set a vision to become a leading player in Power Transmission. In line with this vision the company has been able to win the first mega independent power project from Power Finance Corporation Ltd. We believe that this segment could catapult the company’s revenues

and on completion of the project it will position it as a key player in the Power Transmission projects.

Net sales to grow at CAGR 13% over next two years.

We believe that the capacity expansion would drive enable the company to grow its net sales by 13% CAGR from FY09 to FY12. We expect that the realization for Optic Fiber would stay around $8/fkm and for Optic Fiber Cable would stay around $22/fkm. However the realization of the conductors normally remain volatile.

OUTLOOK & VALUATION STL is on an expansion mode for all its manufacturing capacities and envisions to capture a substantial market share in the next two years. The environment for both its products power conductors as well as optic fiber is very conducive for investments. The global demand for Optic Fiber would be driven by China and India and that for Power Conductors will be fueled by additional investment in transmission and distribution lines in India. With expanded capacities we believe it will enjoy economies of scale and improve its margins to 16% by FY12. At CMP of Rs.405 the stock is trading 12x FY11E EPS of Rs. 32.6 & 10x FY12E EPS of Rs. 41.7. Given the proven track record of the management, we believe that STL will be able to achieve the expected growth and thus we initiate coverage with a BUY rating on the Company with a target price of Rs.500 (based on 12x its FY12E EPS of Rs 41.7).

Initiating Coverage

Sterlite Technologies Ltd.

March 02, 2010 BUY MEDIUM RISK PRICE Rs.405 TARGET Rs.500

POWER

SHARE HOLDING (%)

Promoters 43.52

FII 4.15

FI / MF 17.44

Body Corporates 9.66

Public & Others 25.24

STOCK DATA

Reuters Code Bloomberg Code

STTE.BO SOTL.IN

BSE Code NSE Symbol

532374 STRTECH

Market Capitalization*

Rs. 31,753 mn US$ 690 mn

Shares Outstanding*

78.4 mn

52 Weeks (H/L) Rs.443/48

Avg. Daily Volume (6m)

105,031 Shares

Price Performance (%)

1 M 2M 3M

2 31 70

200 Days EMA: Rs. 286

*On fully diluted equity shares

Part of Bonanza

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the report For private Circulation Only.

Sushil Financial Services Private Limited Member : BSEL, SEBI Regn.No. INB/F010982338 | NSEIL, SEBI Regn.No.INB/F230607435.

Office : 12, Homji Street, Fort, Mumbai 400 001. Phone: +91 22 40936000 Fax: +91 22 22665758 Email : [email protected]

KEY FINANCIALS Y/E Mar

Revenue (Rs mn)

APAT (Rs mn)

AEPS (Rs)

AEPS (% Ch.)

P/E (x)

ROCE (%)

ROE (%)

P/BV (x)

FY09 22892 1165 18.0 22.7 22 13 20 4

FY10E 23457 1964 30.4 68.4 13 18 27 3

FY11E 28807 2559 32.6 7.4 12 19 26 3

FY12E 32982 3269 41.7 27.7 10 20 27 2

ANALYST Viral Shah | +91 22 4093 5045 [email protected]

SALES: Devang Shah | +91 22 4093 6060/61

[email protected]

Nishit Shah | +91 22 4093 6074 [email protected]

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Power Conductors and Optic Fibers demand to augur well for STL

India is likely to continue witnessing a significant growth in infrastructure due to Government’s thrust on the sector and its importance in rising GDP of the country.Two of the key sectors on which infrastructure depends are Power and telecommunication. STL is well place to capture the strong demand for optical fiber, with expanding wireless subscriber base & increasing internet usage and large spending on Power T&D.

Power Conductors India demand for Power is expected to grow at the average rate of 8% up to 2017, the country’s demand for power will soar over 300 GW from current of approximately 120 GW. The Power sector is likely to require US $ 600 bn investment by 2017, of which US $ 110 mn will be needed for Transmission and US $ 190 mn for distribution. As per the 11th five year plan India would invest Rs. 8370 bn in Power Sector, of which Rs. 1400 bn would be invested in transmission and Rs. 2870 bn would be invested in distribution. This means an opportunity of Rs. 315 bn alone for Power conductors. There are at least 5 conductors in case of HVAC and 3 in case of HVDC. The average weight/ km of transmission conductors range from 1.8MT/km-2.1MT/km and in case of distribution lines the same ranges from 90kgs/km-120 kgs/km. This implies that an incremental transmission line demand of 1 ckm p.a. would translate into conductor demand of 9 MT, while on the distribution side, an incremental network addition of 1 Ckm works out to 0.5 MT. Based on this, there would be a requirement of approximately 2.1 mn MT of conductors leading to a average demand of ~ 300,000 MT per year over five years.

Source: Company

STL holds 25% market share for conductors in India and holds 14% market share in Africa. Over the next few years, huge spending of US$ 150 bn is likely on T&D grids globally. India’s top five players contribute 60% of the country’s total capacity, with the remaining 40% being supplied by 300 smaller and more regional manufacturers. Both STL and Apar Industries (its competitor) also export significant volume to emerging economies in the SAARC region and in Africa. Majority of the orders on the power conductors would be floated by Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL). PGCIL has a capital expenditure outlay of Rs.546 bn out of which 25% would be allocated for Power conductors. PGCIL is the largest customer of STL with an order book of ~ Rs. 16 bn. We believe the Company is very well placed to

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capture the growth in the Power conductors business and would deliver a volume growth of + 20% in conductors over next three years.

Fiber Optics and Fiber Optic Cables The demand for optic Fiber is driven mainly by telecom and internet usage. The increasing internet penetration and continuous rise in the wireless subscribers have been key growth drivers for these sectors. Global demand for Fiber optics would be driven by China and India

The Internet now touches over 1.6 bn users directly, a penetration of 24% (as a % of Population) as on March 31, 2009. Over the period 2000-2008, internet penetration has grown by a CAGR of over 20%. Asia has the largest subscriber base (650 mn users) accounting for 41% of the total internet users. However, Asia’s penetration is still low at only 17%. India has 81mn users (a penetration of 7.1%) and it has registered a CAGR of 42% over the last eight years. China has a user base of 298 mn, a penetration of 22% and a CAGR of 38% over the same period. Despite these high growth rates and large volume of users, the penetration in both these countries is still very low compared to countries like South Korea, Japan, and Singapore. That indicates the huge potential for growth that is possible in these economies.

Source: www.internetworldstats.com

The number of global broadband subscribers grew from 350 mn in 2007 to 400 mn in 2008 as per Point Topic, a UK-based research agency. Industry projections by In-Stat indicate that broadband subscribers will reach over 875mn by 2012. By that time, according to some industry estimates, one in every ten households would be served by a Fiber-to the-X architecture.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

World Internet penetration

Internet penetration

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Source: ITU, www.internetworldstats.com

In India majority of the demand would be fueled by following reasons:

VAS: Innovative product offerings will imply a move towards non-voice Value Added Services (VAS), which will drive up the bandwidth requirements of networks. Emphasis on service quality will ensure deployments of Next-generation backbone networks; of which optical fiber is one of the most important components. 3G & Wimax: Wireless technologies like 3G and WiMAX, which are also expected to make broadband ubiquitous, are fueling fiber demand. Broadband Users: Increasing focus of private telecom operators on providing Internet and broadband services to capture market share in the currently small but growing pie. Cellular Network: Strengthening of the backbone and linking of cellular towers to the optical backbone.

Demand update on Fiber Optics and Fiber Optic Cables For the first three quarters of 2009, China’s bare Fiber imports were 34% of total imports in all markets. Based on partial Q4 trade data and the market information available in early January, China imported 24 mn km of bare fiber in 2009, or 13% of the 181 mn km of fiber produced worldwide last year. In addition, Chinese Fiber makers produced 66 mn km, which was 37% of the 181 mn km. Preliminary year-end results show worldwide optical cable shipments of 163 mn fkm in 2009, an increase of 17% from 139 mn fkm in 2008. China’s optical cable demand grew 90% from 42 mn fkm in 2008 to 80 mn Fiber-km in 2009. In other words, China’s increase of 38 mn Fiber-km offset a net decrease of 14 mn Fiber-km in all other markets, to result in worldwide growth of 24 mn fkm. Although many FTTH (Fiber-to-the-home) projects slowed down in 2009, projects in Korea, Slovakia, Taiwan, and the UAE maintained reasonable momentum. New projects got underway in Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Switzerland, and the UK. In some cases, national government authorities stepped in to help with financing. And recent news items indicate that national projects in Greece and New Zealand have been delayed but not entirely derailed.

0

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16

Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09

Bill

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Internet and Broadband users growth

Internet Broadband

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We believe that the global demand for fiber optics cable would grow at 10% annually until 2012.

Source: CRU, UK & Sushil Finance Research Estimates The strong growth witnessed by China and India would benefit STL significantly as it occupies 45% share in optical fiber & cables in India, over 7% market share in China and 5% share in Russia. We expect STL’s bare fiber optic production volume to grow at a CAGR of 37% and Fiber Optic Cable production to grow at CAGR of 27%.

Capacity expansion would drive the volumes

Power Conductors STL is one of the largest manufacturing capacities players in Power conductors. STL’s products in this category include a range of power-transmission conductors at extra-high voltages (EHV) (400-800kV), high voltages (66-220kV), and power distribution conductors (11-33kV). The manufacturing processes at its plant in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, are fully integrated, starting from aluminum ingots to aluminum power conductors. The plant manufactures different types of conductors, including:

Aluminum conductor steel reinforced (ACSR)

all-aluminum alloy conductor (AAAC)

aluminum conductor steel supported (ACSS)

Currently, STL has a manufacturing capacity of 160,000 MT which was expanded from 109,000 MT in FY09. Its capacity has grown at a CAGR of 35% from FY07 to FY09. The company is in the process of further expanding its capacities to 200,000 MT by FY12.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E

Global Optic Fiber Demand

mn km

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Source: Company We believe that the expansion is well timed as the transmission sector is at an inflection point and would need significant addition of transmission lines in the coming years for evacuating large amount of power, which will be generated due to significant capacity

addition during 11th and 10th plan. PGCIL contributed 59% of FY09 power-conductor sales, while the different SEBs contributed 29% of the total. The size of the orders in the conductors segment from PGCIL and SEBs average Rs700-800m, and are normally delivered within 10 months of receiving the order. We expect sales volume in conductors to grow at a CAGR of 19% from FY09 to FY12.

Fiber Optics and Fiber Optic Cables STL is the only fully integrated manufacturer of Fiber optics in India along with global players’ viz. Corning Inc (USA), Fujikura (Japan), Sumitomo Electric and Furukawa Electric. However, due to its geographic advantage of having the complete plant at one location and cheaper labor costs. It is currently the least cost producer of optic fiber STL incurs a total cost of about US $5/fkm as against cost of about US $6‐6.5/fkm for other players. In India most of the players viz. Vindhya Telelink, Finolex Cables,Aksh OptiFibre procure the intermediate ingredient preform (used to make optic fiber) either from STL or from outside India.

STL is the 5th largest player of Fiber Optics in the world. It is in the process of expanding its existing capacity of 9 mn km to 12 mn km by FY10 and then to 20 mn km by FY12. It expects a capital expenditure of Rs. 2.5 bn for this expansion. It is also expanding its fiber optics cable capacity to 10 mn km in FY12. Post this expansion it would become the 3rd largest player of Optic Fiber in the world after this expansion and expects to capture 10% of the global market share and 45% market share in India. We expect the sales in volume in fiber optics to grow at CAGR of 39% from FY09 to FY12 and sales volume in

fiber optic cables to grow at a CAGR of 29% from FY09 to FY12.

60,000

90,000109,000

140,000

170,000

200,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Power Conductors Capacity

Capacity (MT)

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Source: Company

Forayed as an EPC contractor into Power Transmission projects via BOOM

STL has set a vision to become a leading player in Power Transmission. In line with this vision the company has been able to win the first mega independent power project from Power Finance Corporation Ltd. for its East-North interconnection mega transmission project. The East-North interconnection mega transmission project, which aims to evacuate power from the North-East and Eastern states to the Northern region of India, is the first Mega Independent Power Transmission Project to be awarded in India. The project involves establishment of two 400 KV Double Circuit transmission lines that would respectively connect the Indian states of Assam with West Bengal and Bihar. The project has been awarded to STL on a ‘Build, Own, Operate and Maintain’ (BOOM) basis, wherein the transmission lines would be commissioned within 3 years and the Company would operate and maintain the same for a minimum tenure of 22 years thereafter. The project, costing about Rs.8 bn, was won by STL on the basis of its technical and financial credentials through a Tariff based Bidding Process conducted by PFC. We believe that this segment could catapult the company’s revenues and on completion of the project it will position it as a key player in the Power Transmission projects.

46

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FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Fiber Optics Capacity

Capacity mn fkm

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Net Sales to grow at CAGR 13% over next two years STL sales grew by 35% YoY in FY09. 68% of its sales came from India, 24% from Africa and 8% from M.E. PGCIL has remained one of the major clients for the company contributing 59% to its revenues.

Source: Company

We believe that the capacity expansion would drive enable the company to grow its net sales by 13% CAGR from FY09 to FY12. Optic Fiber capacities around the world have remained stable and no new capacities are expected to come on stream in the near future. We expect that the realization for Optic Fiber would stay around $8/fkm and for Optic Fiber Cable would stay around $22/fkm. We have not increased realization for FY11 and FY12 either as we expect them to remain stable. However the realization of the conductors normally remain volatile due to fluctuation in the prices of aluminum, (a key ingredient for the conductors). We have increased our realization of aluminum by 6% in FY11 and kept it flat in FY12.

Source: Company & Sushil Finance Research Estimates

STL’s Order book at the end of Q3FY10 stood at Rs.21.5 bn of which orders worth Rs.16 bn are from power conductor segment and Rs.5.5 bn are from telecom segment. We expect the sales to grow at 13% CAGR over next two years.

68%8%

24%

Geographic distribution of Revenues

India ME & Europe Africa

12%

29%59%

Client-wise distribution of Revenues

EPC SEB PGCIL

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0

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25,000

30,000

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FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E

Gro

wth

(in

%)

Am

ou

nt

(in

Rs.

mn

)

Sales Analysis

Sales Sales growth

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With the increase in capacities we believe that STL will enjoy economies of scale which could further bring down its cost of production in fiber optics from $5/fkm. On the power conductors, we expect that although the volatility in raw material prices would impact its EBITDA margins, the EBITDA /tonne would remain in the range of Rs. 11,000 to 12,000 per tonne. On a blended basis we expect the STL to deliver an EBITDA margin of 16% by FY12 We expect the net profits to grow at a CAGR of 29% over next two years.

Source: Company & Sushil Finance Research Estimates

STL has issued two sets of warrants to its promoters: -A total of 6.45m warrants issued on 2 April 2009, which can be converted into

6.45m shares at Rs65/share -A total of 7.3m warrants issued on 15 October 2009, which can be converted into 7.3m shares at Rs148.5/share.

Comparison with Global Peers

Company Year Revenues (Rs. mn)

Operating Income (Rs. mn)

OP Mrgn (%) ROE (%)

EV (Rs. mn)

EPS ( Rs.)

Furukawa FY08 414368.5 17095.9 4.13 6.4 290963 7.7

FY09 47624.5 4490.9 0.94 (19.9) 343515 (24.6)

Sumitomo FY08 896618.5 52577.7 1.1 9.5 543326 39.8

FY09 977205.5 10834.6 5.86 1.9 638420 10.3

Fujikura Ltd. FY08 232718.1 7189.9 3.09 1.9 112668 4.3

FY09 264178.4 105.9 0.04 (9.5) 149232 (24.3)

Corning Inc. CY08 260853.5 52054.4 20.16 45.8 1324239 67.3

CY09 258231.5 30896.2 11.84 13.9 1193630 66.2

Sterlite Technologies FY08 16857.9 1994.8 11.8 35.1 31525 14.7

FY09 22892.3 2341.5 10.2 20.1 30003 18.0

0.0

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FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

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ou

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(in

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Rs)

EBITDA & EBITDA Margins

EBITDA EBITDA Mrgn (%)

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Risks & Concerns Delay in the pick of demand globally for fiber optics and fiber optic cable could lead

to slowdown in sales of company’s products.

Sudden Volatility in prices of aluminum and foreign exchange fluctuation would largely affect the margins in the conductors segment and can impact our earnings estimates.

Slowdown by PGCIL in awarding contracts for power conductors can possibly impact the sales of the company.

Any over capacity of fiber optics and fiber optic cable, globally can impact the sales of the company.

OUTLOOK & VALUATION STL is on an expansion mode for all its manufacturing capacities and envisions to capture a substantial market share in the next two years. The environment for both its products power conductors as well as optic fiber is very conducive for investments. The global demand for Optic Fiber would be driven by China and India and that for Power Conductors will be fueled by additional investment in transmission and distribution lines in India. With expanded capacities we believe it will enjoy economies of scale and improve its margins to 16% by FY12. At CMP of Rs.405 the stock is trading 12x FY11E EPS of Rs. 32.6 & 10x FY12E EPS of Rs. 41.7. Given the proven track record of the management, we believe that STL will be able to achieve the expected growth and thus we initiate coverage with a BUY rating on the Company with a target price of Rs.500 (based on 12x its FY12E EPS of Rs 41.7).

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PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT Rs.mn

Y/E March FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Net Sales 22892 23457 28807 32982

Raw material 17309 16397 20316 22878

Manufacturing Cost 1378 1791 1959 2210

Staff costs 491 590 678 780

Admin. & Other Exp. 556 469 576 660

Selling Expenses 756 774 951 1088

R&D Charges 60 80 90 100

PBIDT 2342 3356 4237 5266

Interest 532 420 462 508

Depreciation 425 528 636 743

Other Income 30 65 78 90

Extraordinary items 319 (101) - -

PBT 1094 2574 3218 4105

Tax 193 530 659 836

RPAT 902 2044 2559 3269

Extraordinary adj (263) 80 - -

APAT 1165 1964 2559 3269

BALANCE SHEET STATEMENT Rs.mn

Y/E March FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Share Capital 323 323 392 392

Reserves & Surplus 5834 7811 10337 13445

Share warrants money - 376 - -

ESOP o/s 53 53 53 53

Net Worth 6209 8562 10781 13890

Secured Loans 4679 4913 5158 5416

Unsecured Loans 287 287 287 287

Total Loan funds 4966 5200 5445 5703

Deferred tax liability 560 575 590 605

Capital Employed 11735 14337 16816 20198

Net Block 5453 6525 8589 9446

Cap. WIP 1114 800 500 800

Fixed Assets 6567 7325 9089 10246

Investments 920 920 920 920

Sundry Debtors 5459 5720 7261 8584

Cash & Bank Bal 779 1320 406 1060

Loans & Advances 2012 2186 2571 2801

Inventories 1004 1348 1948 2507

Current Asst. 9253 10574 12185 14953

Curr Liab & Prov 5005 4482 5378 5922

Total Assets 11735 14337 16816 20198

KEY RATIO STATEMENT

As on 31st March FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Growth (%)

Net Sales 36 2 23 14

APAT 23 69 30 28

EBITDA 17 43 26 24

Profitability (%)

EBITDA Margin 10 14 15 16

Adj. PAT Margin 5 8 9 10

ROCE 13 18 19 20

ROE 20 27 26 27

Per Share Data (Rs.)

Adj. EPS 18 30 33 42

Adj. CEPS 23 40 41 51

BVPS 96 132 138 177

Valuations (X)

PER 22 13 12 10

PEG 1 0 2 0

P/BV 4 3 3 2

EV / EBITDA 13 9 9 7

EV / Net sales 1 1 1 1

Dividend Yield (%) 0 0 0 0

Turnover Days

Debtors days 87 89 92 95

Creditors days 101 95 92 90

Gearing Rations

Total Debt to Equity 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 Source : Company, Sushil Finance Research Estimates

CASH FLOW STATEMENT Rs.mn

Y/E March FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

PAT 902 2044 2559 3269

Depreciation 359 528 636 743

Chg in Deferred tax 178 15 15 15

Chg in Working cap 2387 (1302) (1630) (1570)

Cash flow from operations

3826 1285 1580 2457

Chg in Gross PPE (574) (1600) (2700) (1600)

Chg in WIP (751) 314 300 (300)

Chg in Investments (860) - - -

Chg in others - - - -

Cash flow from investing (2185) (1287) (2400) (1900)

Chg in debt (1666) 234 246 258

Chg in Share Capital - 1 69 -

Chg in reserves 12 27 104 (0)

Chg in ESOPS (5) - - -

Chg in warrants money - 376 (376) -

Dividend (94) (95) (138) (161)

Cash flow from financing (1753) 542 (95) 97

Chg in cash (112) 541 (915) 655

Cash at start 891 779 1320 406

Cash at end 779 1320 406 1060

Page 12: Sterlite Technologies Ltd. · Sterlite Technologies Ltd (STL) is a largest manufacturer of Power Conductors, Optic Fiber and Optic Fiber Cables. It is expanding its capacities in

March 02 , 2010

12

Sterlite Technologies Ltd.

Rating Scale

This is a guide to the rating system used by our Equity Research Team. Our rating system

comprises of six rating categories, with a corresponding risk rating.

Risk Rating

Risk Description Predictability of Earnings / Dividends; Price Volatility

Low Risk High predictability / Low volatility

Medium Risk Moderate predictability / volatility

High Risk Low predictability / High volatility

Total Expected Return Matrix

Rating Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Buy Over 15 % Over 20% Over 25%

Accumulate 10 % to 15 % 15% to 20% 20% to 25%

Hold 0% to 10 % 0% to 15% 0% to 20%

Sell Negative Returns Negative Returns Negative Returns

Neutral Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable

Not Rated Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable

Please Note

Recommendations with “Neutral” Rating imply reversal of our earlier opinion (i.e. Book Profits / Losses).

** Indicates that the stock is illiquid With a view to combat the higher acquisition cost for illiquid stocks, we have

enhanced our return criteria for such stocks by five percentage points.

“Desk Research Call” is based on the publicly available information on the companies we find interesting and are

quoting at attractive valuations. While we do not claim that we have compiled information based on our meeting with

the management, we have taken enough care to ensure that the content of the report is reliable. Although we have

christened the report as “Desk Research Calls” (DRC), we intend to release regular updates on the company as is done

in our other rated calls.

Additional information with respect to any securities referred to herein will be available upon request.

This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Sushil Group clients only and should not be reproduced, re-circulated,

published in any media, website or otherwise, in any form or manner, in part or as a whole, without the express

consent in writing of Sushil Financial Services Private Limited. Any unauthorized use, disclosure or public

dissemination of information contained herein is prohibited. This report is to be used only by the original recipient to

whom it is sent.

This is for private circulation only and the said document does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities

mentioned herein. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its

accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are

requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy or sell any

security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the

material. The information, on which the report is based, has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be

reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or

complete. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.

Sushil Financial Services Private Limited and its connected companies, and their respective directors, officers and

employees (to be collectively known as SFSPL), may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the securities

mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. SFSPL may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior

to the publication thereof.


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