The Unintended Consequences of Green

Consumption

Steve Sorrell

University of Sussex, UK

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Topics

Rebound effects for households

Sources of confusion and dispute

Policy implications

2

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Rebound effects - households

Lower running

costs

Driver further or more often

Lower petrol bills

Holiday in

Spain

Less energy

More energy

More energy

Direct

Indirect

Embodied energy

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Determinants of rebound effects

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• Direct: – Own-price elasticity of energy service and share of

energy in total cost of energy service

• Indirect:– Income elasticities, cross-price elasticities and energy

intensities of complementary and substitute goods

• Embodied:– Equipment lifetime and energy required to

manufacture and install compared to alternative(s)

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Estimates of direct rebound effects

Service Range of estimates

Best guess No. of studies Confidence

Car transport 3 -

87% 10-30% 17 High

Space heating 1 -

60% 10 –

30% 9 Medium

Space cooling 1 –

26% 1 –

26% 2 Low

Other 0 –

39%

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On a consumption basis, total and indirect UK household carbon emissions are rising

Indirect emissions due to imported goods are rising faster

Source: Druckman & Jackson (2009)

Indirect matters!

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Global carbon flowsInter-regional fluxes in MtCO2 /year (2004)

Source: Davis and Caldeira (2010)

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Estimating the UK carbon footprint

Percentage change between 1990 and 2004 (CO2e )

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Estimates of direct + indirect effectsAuthor Effects captured Efficiency or

sufficiencyArea of consumption Estimated

rebound effects

Lenzen & Day (2002)

Income Efficiency & Sufficiency

Food; heating 45-123%

Alfreddson (2004) Income Sufficiency Food; travel; utilities 7-300%

Brannlund (2007) Income and Substitution

Efficiency Transport; utilities 120-175%

Mizobuchi (2008) Income and Substitution

Efficiency Transport; utilities 12-38%

Kratena (2010) Income and Substitution

Efficiency Transport; heating; electricity

37-86%

Chitnis et al (2011)

Income Sufficiency Transport, heating, food

7-51%

Methodological approaches very diverse.Results may refer to energy, carbon or GHGs

Several studies have methodological weaknesses

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Simple ‘sufficiency’ actions

• Household heating: reduce thermostat by 1oC (10%)

• Food: reduce food waste by one third (33%)

• Transport: replace car journeys

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0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Household thermostat

Food Travel All actions

GHG

emiss

ions

(tCO

2e)

Expected GHG reductions (ΔH) (tCO2e)

GHGs due to use of avoided expenditure (ΔG) (tCO2e)

7%

51%

25%

34%

Estimated rebound effects

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Varying the respend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Behaviour as usual

Worst case Best case 100% investment

GHG

emiss

ions

(tC

O2e

) Expected GHG reduction (ΔH ) (tCO2e)

GHGs due to use of avoided expenditure (ΔG) (tCO2e)

Rebound34%

Rebound515%

Rebound12%

Rebound26%

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Summary

Evidence base reasonable for direct effects but very sparse for indirect and embodied effects

Direct effects

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Topics

Rebound effects for households

Sources of confusion and dispute

Policy implications

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“The concept of a nontrivial rebound effect…..is without basis in either theory or experience. It is, I

believe, now widely accepted to be a fallacy whose tedious repetition ill

serves rational discourse and sound public policy” (Lovins, 1988)

“With fixed real energy prices, energy efficiency gains will

increase energy consumption above what it would be without

these gains)” (Saunders, 1992)

A polarised debate

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Sources of confusion

• Varying definitions of the relevant variables and the appropriate system boundaries

• Rebound effects are hard to measure and the causal links are unclear

• Energy efficiency improvements rarely occur in isolation– e.g. ‘green’

commercial buildings improved labour

productivity by 16%, with labour costs 25*energy costs

• Underlying theoretical disputes over the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

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Improved efficiency of steam engines

Lower cost steam

Greater use of steam engines

Coal-mining Steel-making

Lower cost steel

Lower cost rail transport

Lower cost coal

Jevons’ Paradox

“….It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth…. Every improvement of the engine when effected will only

accelerate anew the consumption of coal…”(Jevons, 1865)

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Topics

Rebound effects for households

Sources of confusion and dispute

Policy implications

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Directions for policy

Allow for rebound in policy appraisals

Introduce progressive efficiency standards

Impose increasingly stringent carbon taxes or emission caps

Seek comprehensive, global climate agreement to prevent all forms of carbon leakage

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Beware unintended consequences…

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The Unintended Consequences of Green ConsumptionTopicsRebound effects - householdsDeterminants of rebound effectsEstimates of direct rebound effectsIndirect matters!Global carbon flowsEstimating the UK carbon footprintEstimates of direct + indirect effectsSimple ‘sufficiency’ actionsSlide Number 11Slide Number 12SummaryTopicsA polarised debateSources of confusionJevons’ ParadoxTopicsDirections for policyBeware unintended consequences…