1

Transformation,

transitions &

future of

smallholders

recognising

differences

Transition

Increasing GDP/cap

P

e

r

c

e

n

t

a

g

e

S

h

a

r

e

T

o

t

a

l

V

a

l

u

e

Share

Labour in

Agri.

Agri Share

GDP

Value

Agri GDP

VA Agri

Worker

Transformation & Transition

Relative decline of agriculture with economic growth

Most SF today

will not be full-

time SF in

20/30/50 years

Attention!

Not mass exit

Not end of small-

scale farming

Labour transition

may be slow:

SS Africa, 2010--

2020

5

Rural Choices

JobsFarm

RNFE

City

Transition

Brutal

Gentle

Benign Rural Transitions

(FT Comm) Farming

Part-time

Farming RNFERural-Urban Links

Migration

SF

DIFFER3 schema

OECD DAC Rural Worlds

RW1: LSCF

RW2: SF, may hire

RW3: SF survival, food first

RW4: Landless

RW5: Chronic Poor

Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye

Step Up: Potential FT commercial SF

Step Out: diversified RNFE

Hang In: Marginal SF

Latin America [RIMISP]

Latin America: 12 Cs

3%

9%

20%

43%

25%

Commercial Farms

Class A family farms

Class B family farms

Class C family farms

Rural landless

Is it that different in (Eastern) Africa?

SF surveys, 1996/2001

14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Mozambique Zambia

He

cta

res

1st Quartile 2nd Quartile

3rd Quartile 4th Quartile

Policy implications

15

ARD Policy by Cat & Effect

Policy Context Household Assets

Rural Investment

Climate

Peace

Stable Macro-Economy

Low/No Urban Bias

Basic Institutions

Rural Public Goods Roads, Power Human Capital: Education,

Health, Water, Research & Ext.

Correct Rural

Market Failures

↓ TransacHons Costs

↓ Monopoly Power

Esp.: Finance, Inputs

Transfer Capital Grants & Subsidies

Social Protection Jobs

Income Support

Who needs what? A: Step Up B: Step Up C: Step Out Chronic Poor:

Hang In

Rural Investment

Climate

Rural Public

Goods

Correct Market

Failures

Private Sector Approach ?? ??

Institutions, Collectives or State?

Transfer

Capital X X ?? ??

Social

ProtectionX ??

What happens to marginal

SF [C]?

• Part-time/Weekend/Hobby farms

• Entrust/Lend/Rent/Sell to neighbours

Do not (all) leave land

• Support Staple Crops• From 3/6 to 6/9/12 months food supply

Agricultural Policy?

18

Key References

• Timmer, C. Peter, 2009, A World without Agriculture. The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspective,Washington DC: AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute

• Wiggins, Steve, John Farrington, Giles Henley, Natasha Grist & Anna Locke, 2013, Agricultural development policy: a contemporary agenda, Background Paper for GIZ, London: Overseas Development Institute: pp 18–22

• Wiggins, Steve, 2011, Island nation or global citizen? Solving the food crisis by helping small scale farmers, Policy Report, Melbourne: World Vision Australia