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Brierley Newberry: Wolfson Prize 2014 1

The Wolfson Economics Prize 2014Mark BrierleyPatrick Newberry

xecutive Summary

My interest in this years prize isstimulated by three key issues: As a professional architect, a strong

belief that twenty first centurydesigners can create high qualityenvironments that will improve thegeneral standard of residential

housing in the UK. A direct personal recognition that thepresent housing market will not satisfythe aspirations of my children,

The failure of the UK to move fastenough to meet the climate changechallenges that we are presentlyfacing.

I believe that developing effectiveresponses to these issues leads to creative

answers to the competition question.

A Garden City model is proposed which isrepeatable across a large part of thecountry and which offers residents of allages: an attractive and vibrant place to live, high quality, spacious, energy

efficient houses, affordable homes through an

economic model which breaks the

shackles of the present open marketmodel,

an environment which is sustainable

The City is a scalable organic structure,comprising three quarters centred onsecondary schools and fifteenneighbourhoods centred on primaryschools. Each neighbourhood comprisesapproximately 1000 dwellings reflectingnatural large village communities. The

quarters are in turn organized around aCity centre which provides the facilities

making up the Citys social, cultural andcommercial heart. This organic structurecombined with a purpose built sustainablepublic tram system and a network of pathsand cycle ways, offers an attractivephysical environment for residents, whichwill foster a healthy and environmentally

friendly way of life without beingcontrived.

The proposal is for a City of c16,000homes and 40,000 people. This is smallerthan many earlier proposals for newsettlements and has the advantage ofrequiring only a relatively small site. Thisapproach offers a series of smaller citiesinstead of going for one or two very largeconurbations. The smaller scale only

requires 556 Ha of land and is, therefore,less likely to generate the extremeresistance encountered by some of themuch larger City models previouslyproposed.

It is relatively easy to find locations wherecities built on this model could be sited, asis shown by reference to the test locationsidentified in Oxfordshire, Wiltshire, Kentand Essex. The City would be easily

repeatable in different parts of thecountry enabling regional housingshortages to be addressed locally, andproviding houses in places where peoplewant to live.

Cities will be built away from flood plainsand environmentally sensitive locations onsites that are close to major road and raillinks. The model City will comprise homesbuilt to the decent space standards, which

are extremely energy efficient to the 2016Carbon Zero targets, and which are built in


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streets and squares to create attractive,vibrant communities. The City will providecommercial facilities and will be built nearto other centres of employment.

The City will generate its own power fromprimarily green sources and will alsoprovide the infrastructure for otherutilities such as water, drainage and wastedisposal. The utility infrastructure will beprovided free of charge to utilitycompanies (the build cost having beenfunded through the sale of properties inthe City), but in return, utility companieswill be required to provide services to Cityresidents at costs below the national

average. This will still be attractive to theutility companies because they will nothave to bear the capital cost ofinfrastructure. Services such as health andeducation will be provided by county ornational authorities, although theirfacilities will also be built by the City andleased free of charge to the relevantauthorities.

The City will offer owned and let dwellings.

Owned dwellings will be sold on longleaseholds. Economically, the City will beeffectively a mutual organization, runprofitably for the benefit of its occupants.The cost of construction of the entire Citywill be funded by the sale of dwellings andby the sale of leases of commercialproperties. Twenty percent of owneddwellings will be sold at a twenty percentdiscount to low income people to providelow cost housing so as to help

affordability. Ten percent of non low costproperties will be available for rental.

The City will make the market in Citydwellings, offering dwellings for sale andbuying them back when residents want totrade up or down or to leave the City.Properties will be bought and sold by theCity at a Transfer Price which will be basedon the cost of construction plus anadjustment to reflect the net presentvalue of future likely savings in runningcosts for dwellings in the City and an

allowance for inflation. The use of thismechanism will insulate the Citysdwellings from the vagaries of the openproperty market, whilst encouraging theefficient management of the City and its

infrastructure.

The sale price of a house in the Citygenerated using this mechanism is sometwenty percent below the headline UKaverage cost of a house. Low cost housesin the City based on this price mechanismare affordable to couples, with or withoutchildren, using the Shelter affordabilitycriteria. The relative affordabilitycombined with a good mix of owner

occupied and rented properties meansthat a broad spectrum of housingaspirations are satisfied.

The Citys high quality design , combinedwith its environmental friendliness andbeneficial economic positioning should beattractive to new and existing residents.These factors, combined with asophisticated promotion of the need fornew dwellings, backed up by an effective

compensation scheme for existingresidents who are affected by the buildingof a new city should reduce resistance to itbeing built to manageable levels.

The proposed City offers a repeatable,attractive, vibrant, environmentallyfriendly, economically attractive solutionto the Competition question and canexpect to be realistically delivered due toits small physical scale and limited

environmental impact.

We believe the ideas presented in thisresponse deserve to be investigatedfurther and we commend this submissionto the judges.

Mark BrierleyNVB Architectswww.nvbarchitects.co.uk [email protected] 468030 07966 530221
http://www.nvbarchitects.co.uk/http://www.nvbarchitects.co.uk/http://www.nvbarchitects.co.uk/


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The Wolfson Economics Prize 2014

Mark BrierleyPatrick Newberry


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ow would you deliver a newGarden City which is visionary,economically viable andpopular

In addressing the Prize question, oursubmission is set out as follows:-

Introduction 3

Vision and Specification 6

The City Structure and Size 13

Location 16

Economic Model 20

Governance 27

Project Process 29

Conclusion 32

Appendices

A Other LocationsB Economic Model AssumptionsC Construction Cost EstimateD Transfer Price MechanismE Governance


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Brierley Newberry: The Wolfson Prize 3

Introduction

The Wolfson Economics Prize 2014: NewGarden Cities brings together severalfundamental issues which are close to the

heart of any architect concerned with thefabric in which we make our lives. There arethree areas of personal interest which have ledto the preparation of this competitionsubmission:

a A professional confidence that twenty-first century designers can create highquality environments which are asignificant improvement on the generalstandard of residential development in

the UK.

b A direct personal knowledge that thecurrent housing market is unable tosatisfy the aspirations of my children.Young families with decent jobs andsalaries are unable to afford houses inLondon. If this is the situation now, whatchances will my grandchildren have tofind a good place to live? My ownchildren, like many of their generation,

lead a different type of life; more mobileand agile than previous generations withless commitment to a single location andmore global horizons. Solutions whichnecessarily bind home and shelter withfinancial investment and security nolonger seem so relevant.

c The recent history of record extremeweather events in the UK and around theworld realises some of the predictions ofclimate change. This is the biggestproblem facing global society and, asrecent events have shown, large parts ofour current infrastructure cannot copewith the consequences.

A Garden City which addresses these 3 issuesis likely to go a long way in answering thecompetition question.

High quality living environments

There are excellent contemporary examples ofpopular modern living spaces which canprovide a model for the creation of a new

Garden City; developments whichdemonstrate new living arrangements andhouse configurations and explore differentbuilding plans and urban environments.

Building a Garden City from scratch providesan opportunity to showcase these innovativeforms of dwelling, raising their profile andencouraging a much better standard for newhousing across the whole country. The work ofFeilden Clegg Bradley at Cambridge and Street,

provide examples of high density livingarrangements which meet high qualityenvironmental standards.

FCB Accordia, Cambridge

FCB Street, Somerset

The work of Peter Barber Architects atHannibal Terrace, London shows how thestreet can be reinterpreted in a high densitycontext.


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PB Hannibal Terrace, London

In parallel with new housing forms, there aremany examples of high quality landscapeswhich create an inspired setting. Examples canbe found in both the UK and abroad.

Housing Malmo

In the area of modern infrastructure; it is morenecessary to look abroad for good examples.The Dutch approach to integrated transportsystems and the use of shared surface roads,are perhaps the most obvious starting point.

Within the UK, the development of Sustransroutes and the ever increasing popularity ofcycling, together with the development of new

tramway systems in a number of cities,suggests that an approach which focuses onthe safety of walking and cycling and thedevelopment of modern, energy efficientpublic transport systems, will be pushing at an

open door.

These examples confirm that there is littledoubt that our modern environmental designprofessions can deliver innovative, vibrant andpopular new settlements.

The problems of housing availability andaffordability.

The economic and affordability difficulties

inherent in the current housing market arewell documented and have been explored withsome clarity in papers published byorganisations such as Shelter and the JosephRowntree Organisation.

Statistics about the problems are legion,quoting a few examples over the last 12years, salaries have increased by a factor of 2whilst house prices have increased by a factorof 5. Land prices have increased by even

more. The Halifax Bank reports that currenthouse price inflation is running at 8% whilstsalaries are increasing at 2%. The affordabilitygap is getting worse; large areas of the countrynow show house values 10 times or moreaverage incomes.

Shelter have tried to address the question asto what is an affordable house value. In termsof their figures, 80% of the UK cannot provideaffordable housing.

However, house purchase prices are only oneaspect of wider problems within the housingmarket. There is a widespread presumptionthat home ownership is a good thing for allmembers of society. Unqualified pursuit ofthis goal also causes distortion. For a moremobile population, existing models of homeownership are not necessarily appropriate andcan introduce unnecessary friction into thelabour market. There are, therefore, anumber of fundamental questions related toownership of property that need to be


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addressed if all of the present problems withthe housing market are to be resolved.

Whatever the answers, undoubtedly morehouses are required. This raises questions of

land availability and the extent to which a verysignificant number of new houses can beinserted into existing settlements. Add to thisthe need for mobility in business and ayounger workforce which perhaps see their jobs in a global context, the need anddesirability for long-term personal investmentin a very particular location becomes muchless obvious. Other forms of tenure will beneeded in new settlements and, as aminimum, it will certainly be necessary to

demonstrate ease of re-sale.

Investment in property has been verysuccessful for certain groups of the UKpopulation over the last 30 years. Even so,there have been occasions when house valueshave fallen and some owners haveexperienced negative equity. Whilst historicalperformance has overall been positive, it isunlikely that the housing market will continueon that same trajectory. There are other forms

of investment with a better risk profile thatwould be more appropriate for a large sectorof the population in the future.

Separating the provision of affordable shelterfrom property investment is a key issue for thenew Garden City.

Addressing the widening emissions gap

There is a global imperative to deliver on thevarious commitments made through the UNFramework Convention on Climate Change.There is international agreement that theaverage temperature increase across the globeshould be limited to 2C. The apparentcurrent increase in extreme climate events isrelated to an increase in global temperature ofonly 0.8C and our historical carbon dioxideemissions commit the planet to continuedincreases over the coming decades. It will bechallenging to limit the overall increase to only2C as it will require substantial and sustainedreductions of greenhouse gas emissions. In

view of the recent climate response to anincrease of only 0.8C, it is already apparentthat 2C may be too high a level.

However, in spite of this global imperative to

wean the planet off fossil fuels, the currentenergy debate about affordability and livingstandards seems to have smothered the widerdebate. The creation of a new City provides anopportunity to develop a new infrastructuredesigned to address both the globalrequirement to reduce carbon emissions andthe need to deliver affordable energy and thereduction of fuel poverty.

The construction industry frequently uses the

three word mantra mean, lean, green andthis approach will be equally relevant in thedesign of the City.

Mean; reducing the need for energy inthe first place, maximising heat retentionand insulation, maximising passive solargains through orientation, minimisingheat loss through building form.

Lean; where energy is needed use it

efficiently and sparingly, for example,high efficiency boilers and reduction oftransmission losses.

Green; where energy is needed minimisecarbon emissions through the use ofrenewable sources where possible and aflexible infrastructure to allowsubsequent switching where not.

A new Garden City which addresses these 3

issues will be visionary and innovative. Therecan be little doubt that it would also havewidespread popularity.


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completed to be run as commercialbusinesses.

g Be fair. A legacy governance will beestablished to engage the community.

The City management will be responsiveand able to accommodate andcompensate existing residents for any lossin value of their properties arising fromthe development of the City.

g Be affordable and will maximiseopportunities for communityinfrastructure supported by the broadestcross section of residents. A range ofresidency models (owner occupied, low

cost housing, rental properties) will beoffered and will embody a variety ofmechanisms which help separateprovision of shelter from financialinvestment, whilst also facilitatingmovement in and out of the City as wellas within the City, as housing needschange with life stage.

The original Garden City brand offered a better

place to live through the synthesis of town andcountry. It offered an escape from both thegrim environmental and social issues ofnineteenth century urban cities, as well asfrom the poverty of the countryside. Thebrand can evolve and our vision still offers abetter place to live, but also improved cityinfrastructure, fairer housing availability andaffordability, whilst addressing some of theglobal issues of sustainability.


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The City vision is translated into a design briefas follows;

Living Space

The City must be compact for economic, socialand environmental reasons. A high densityCity is envisaged, but houses will still bespacious and comfortable, with each homehaving both privacy and amenity.

There are excellent examples of developmentsthat achieve these criteria, and communityengagement shall explore these ideas todevelop specific briefs for the new City. Thestreet will remain the principal design

component with houses generally in terracedform. Within this simple arrangement therecan be enormous variety. In general buildingform, houses shall be two or three storeys andapartment blocks four or five storeys. Thehouse designs themselves will aim forflexibility, adopting long life, loose fitprinciples. A range of different sized homeswill be provided with the intention ofproviding a mixed community, representing allages and family sizes.

The RIBA have reported on space in houses;(The Case for Space). Houses built in the UKare small by European standards and the RIBAmakes the case that they have become toosmall. In response new standards have beenpublished for London (The London HousingDesign Guide) and these shall be adopted for

the Garden City.

Street layouts shall follow the Dutchwoonerf principles: living streets in the UK.The streets shall be designed to be more than just roads and pavements using shared spaceprinciples. Play and recreation shall be

deliberately introduced to create attractive,active, social public realm. Parking shall beprovided on street and in blocks, with goodpassive supervision.

The public realm will include trees andgardens, and the leafy, green characteristic ofthe original Garden Cities shall remain part ofthe new City identity. The City shall be legiblewith a strong sense of character.Neighbourhood, quarters, and centre hubs will

be integrated with the land form andlandscape features.

Social infrastructure

The City structure of neighbourhoods andquarters will be based on the provision ofschools: Neighbourhoods will be defined as a

residential area supporting a primaryschool hub

Quarters will be defined as a number ofneighbourhoods (typically three to five)supporting a secondary school.

The schools will become the centre forcommunity facilities and provide a focus forthe surrounding residential development,creating involved communities whilst alsomaking maximum use of the Citys assets. TheCity will invest additional space in each of theschools to enhance community use. As is the

case in many new school developments,health care and social service functions will beintegrated in the school design.


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Primary schools will be located together withsmall convenience stores, allotments and shallshare an area of public realm and parkingprovision.

Secondary schools will be located withsupermarkets and other retail facilitiesincluding pharmacy, caf, and fast foodoutlets, creating a larger hub with appropriatepublic realm in the form of park, square and

large shared parking provision.

The City Centre will provide hospital andhealth care facilities, a Further EducationCollege with a theatre and concert hallfacilities, a swimming pool and cinemas, and ashopping mall.

Overall the City will provide excellentcommunity facilities covering sport, music,drama and the arts. The facilities will all becentred in the schools and there will be somedegree of specialism to create variety andfocus.

Partnerships with progressive artsorganisations such as the National YouthTheatre or National Youth Orchestra shall beestablished to inject vibrancy and vitality tothe Citys cultural scene. Sporting facilities willbe designed in such a way that they can beused as part of national sport trainingprogrammes. Gallery space will be offered tonational museums as high quality displayplaces for the ninety per cent of the UKs artcollections that are kept mostly in storage,largely inaccessible to the general public.

Permeability, movement routes and transport.

The City will be compact; a 40,000 populationcity can be only about 3km across. Footpaths


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and cycle ways will be the main communi-cation link through the city. These shall beseparated from the road infrastructure toencourage walking and cycling. Locatinginfrastructure buildings together in hubs

enables all the main components of the City tobe linked by a simple publically run tramway joining the quarter hubs to the City Centre.The tram system will be available free ofcharge to all residents.

Bombardier Flexcity Tram system

There will be a hierarchy of road routesthrough the City and a primary distributionroute round the City linking to both regionaland national infrastructure. The City will havea link to the existing rail network. The newroad infrastructure will supplement existingroutes and will protect existing settlementsfrom the additional traffic created by the City.

Sustainability and energy.

The new Garden City will be an electric cityavoiding an infrastructure based on thecontinued use of fossil fuels. The City willbecome an exemplar for the efficient use ofelectricity. The normal distribution networkwill be re-examined to test for the optimumthresholds of changes between three phaseand single phase supplies.

The City will maximise the use of renewableenergy sources. PV and solar energy will beinstalled on roofs; 30Mw (nominal) of photo-voltaic and solar thermal panels. The building

form will take account of orientation andmicro climate to ensure that the maximum useis made of natural passive resources.

The first CO2-neutral district in the Netherlands; De Stad van de Zon takes its name from the large number of solar roofs, whichgenerate enough energy to cover all the electricity consumed bythe 1400 homes.

The City shall be in control of refuse collectionand recycling. All materials that cannot berecycled will be considered for use as fuel.The City shall provide a 20Mw power plant

which will generate power from local waste,supplemented by the use of biomass. Adistrict heating system will be run from thepower plant to heat the city centre facilitiesincluding the swimming pool.

The City shall be linked to the National Gridand any shortfall between renewables andbiomass generation shall be made up fromnational resources. Any surplus energygenerated by the City will be sold back to the

National Grid.

The City will act as an energy provider. It shallbulk purchase energy to supplement thatgenerated by the City and offer discountedfuel to residents and citizens. The City will alsoconsider the installation in the future of otherclean carbon free technologies.

The City shall plan for the careful managementof water. The design of all the new buildings

shall include low water use fittings. Rainwaterharvesting shall be incorporated and surface


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water drainage shall use sustainable urbandrainage principles, attenuating discharge andminimising flood risk. The City location will besensitive to flood risk.Landscape.

The City shall respect the landscape setting;understanding and analysing the local contextwill be an essential part of the City designprocess. There will be careful management ofland form in order to protect the existinglandscape components of trees, hedges,streams and rivers. Generally materials willnot be taken off site and the ground modellingdesign shall accommodate the impact of theconstruction works involved.

Whilst the overall density will be high (average40 dwellings per hectare), there will be a largenumber of parks and open spaces spreadthrough the City. Each neighbourhood willhave 2Ha of open space and shall share 5Haallocated to each Quarter. These shall bedeveloped as parks incorporating existinglandscape features. The City will have trueGarden City credentials.

High quality external works design shall beapplied in providing the landscape context forthe housing.

New urban landscape at Malmo

The landscape strategy will include protectionof existing villages and settlements around theCity site from the impact, visual and acoustic,of the new City.

A wetland has been created in the Templeborough district nearRotherham.

Work and employment.

The City shall be economically active and shallgrow into a centre of employment. Economicdiversity is an advantage and the City will

encourage and nurture new business fromwithin its own community. The City willprovide an excellent IT infrastructure and easyaccess to serviced offices linked to thesecondary schools and the Further EducationCollege.

Where possible the City will attract partners torelocate and expand into the City, but it willavoid a dependency on anchor businesseswhich, whilst economically attractive in theshort term, can cause severe distortion if theydecide subsequently to scale down operationsor to relocate. A significant retail component isanticipated together with large retail andwarehouse facilities.

Fairness .

The community will be engaged throughoutthe complete development process and thedevelopment process will involve a fairresponse, engagement, accommodation andcompensation with all parties.


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The proposed City size will be such thatlocations can be found which minimise thenumber of existing residents affected by theproject.

The City aims to attract a full cross section ofsociety and homes will be made available on arange of tenures and tenancies available to all.An ownership and governance structure willbe established to ensure that affordability andfinancial investment and risk are appropriate.

Ownership and affordability .

The Garden City will be affordable. The new

Garden City will provide houses through theproposed economic model at below currentmarket valuations for equivalent properties.The City will continue to provide affordableproperties into the future.

The economic model insulates the City housingstock within a closed market. The City willown and retain all the land required fordevelopment and will build all the houses. TheCity will retain an interest in all the properties

and only sell on a long leasehold basis. TheCity will buy back properties on a pre-agreedvaluation basis. This mechanism is describedin more detail in the Economic Model Section.


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The City: Structure and Size

City Diagram

The City is presented as a concept as follows

Each square represents a neighbourhood with aprimary school based hub. Each square is 28ha.Quarters comprise 5 neighbourhoods and arearranged around a secondary school.

City PopulationBy empirical study of infrastructure thresholds

relative to population size we can demonstrate thata 40,000 population city meeting our garden CitySpecification requires a land area of 556Ha. Indiagrammatic terms this is provided within a circleof diameter 2.66km

The City population and neighbourhood structure will be;


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The City will provide the following accommodation. All these facilities are provided in the Cost Plan.


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The City will require the following land area. Allowances to purchase this land are included in the inthe Cost Plan.


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Where can Cities be built?

Location Criteria

The Garden City described so far is a generic

model with no specific geographical location.The model will be valid for a wide range oflocations which satisfy the following followingcriteria.

a Demand. The location must havesufficient housing demand. Testing thiswill involve an analysis of the housingdemand within the region and localdemand within each of the existingsettlements.

b The site must be sparsely populated withfew or no existing settlements within therequired area.

c The site must be large enough, ie 5-6km

d. Network connectivity. The locations mustbe capable of establishing good links withneighbouring settlements and regionaltowns and cities. The location must have

access to national road and railinfrastructure. Testing this criterioninvolves an analysis of networkinfrastructure in the region and thevitality of the existing local economy.

e Environmental sensitivity. The locationmust be environmentally appropriate.The creation of a new City must notdamage or put at risk the existingenvironment. This criterion will be testedthrough reference to Natural England andthe Environment Agency designations.The selection process will filter out Areasof Outstanding Natural Beauty, Sites ofSpecial Scientific Interest, AncientMonuments, Areas of ArchaeologicalSignificance, flood plains, etc. In view ofthe overall housing objective Green Beltdesignations have not been used as anexclusive filter.

Test Locations

The feasibility of creating a new Garden City

using our concepts and design philosophy hasbeen tested on 4 sites selected in Wiltshire,Oxfordshire, Essex and Kent. In each case thesites meet our location criteria ie; the site;

is in an area with an established highdemand for housing

is close to and can be linked to nationalroad and rail infrastructure

can contribute to local and regionalnetworks

avoids environmentally sensitivelocations.


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The 4 sites are;

Wiltshire Site

The selected location in Wiltshire lies to thenorth of the M4 motorway and GWR railwayroutes between Cardiff, Bristol and London.The new City would be located north ofWootton Bassett.

Essex Test Site

The selected location in Essex lies to the eastof the M11 motorway and between the 2 railroutes into Liverpool Street Station. The newCity would be located just east of ChippingOngar

Kent Site

The selected location in Kent lies to the southof the M20 and north of the railway to CharingCross between Maidstone and Ashford. Thenew City would be located east of Headcorn.

Oxfordshire Site

The selected location in Oxfordshire lies to thewest of the A34 trunk road and overlaps theGWR railway routes between Cardiff, Bristoland London. The new city will be created justnorth of Wantage.


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Of these sites, the Oxfordshire site offers themost potential in terms of infrastructureopportunity, existing settlement mitigationand environmental sensitivity. This site istherefore used to demonstrate the viability of

the proposals; the 3 other sites remain viableand are illustrated in Appendix [A].

Oxfordshire Site

Catchment AreaWithin 10km

Abingdon Didcot Wantage

Within 25km Oxford Faringdon Swindon Newbury

Network Routes A34 trunk road; 3km GWR Railway; in site

Settlements within the site 1no Farm; large storage site Several houses

Settlements outside the site Steventon; East Hanney

West Hanney Grove

Site location overlaid on Natural England andEnvironment Agency maps

Site location overlaid on aerial photograph

Flood RiskLarge Thames flood area to north and east

Environment Assets inside the site Old canal 3 woodland areas Hedges and trees

Environment Assets around the site Marshland to north

Power Major substation to east and distribution

grids to east and north


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Oxfordshire City

The City is laid out following the grain of thelandscape. The City sits astride the railway lineenabling a new station to be placed in the City

centre. The quarters are set out to the northand south of the line and astride the existingroad linking Steventon and East Hanney. Anew distributor road is taken from the existingA34 Steventon exit and sweeps south of theCity to join the A338 south of East Hanney.The new road and rail head will enable thedevelopment to proceed with minimumimpact on the existing road network. The Citylocation avoids the floodplain and the designretains the existing blocks of woodland and

some of the landscape hedges and trees. The

City limits are defined by the old canal route tothe NW and the small East Hendred brook tothe SE. A new woodland block to the east willprovide an effective visual screen toSteventon. Flood attenuation lakes can be

created south of the new link road to protectSteventon and to provide an amenityresource.

The City centre is located adjacent to the newstation and provided with a direct link to thenew distributor road. The energy centre islocated adjacent to the railway line. All thefacilities identified for the City can be providedwithin the site and the land take limited to the556Ha provided for in the generic cost plan.

The city plan super imposed on the landscape.


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The Economic Model.

Underpinning the City is an Economic Modelwhich addresses;-

a what will the City cost to create; includingcosts of land, buildings andinfrastructure?

b what will be the ownership model?

c what will be the price of dwellings andwill they be affordable?

d other considerations

What will the City cost to create; including costsof land, buildings and infrastructure?

Costs have been built up based on the Citydesign specification, and include;- acquiring land, constructing infrastructure, building dwellings, offices, other

workplaces and shops.

The Construction Cost Estimate has beenprepared by quantity surveyors. It is robustand uses current prices for infrastructure andhouse building. The assumptions are set out inAppendix [A].

Key assumptions include;- Average density 45 houses per hectare

across each neighbourhood Average cost per hectare of land

250,000

Construction profit margins of the orderof five percent.

Twenty percent of purchased dwellings tobe low cost

Ten percent of non low cost dwellings tobe available for renting, let at normalmarket rents

Interest rates for financing build at 7% Normal commercial rents will be earned

from commercial properties

The Economic Model assumes that the costs ofbuilding commercial properties and facilities

such as schools, hospitals and recreationalfacilities are covered by the cash flowsgenerated from the sale of dwellings andcommercial leases. Any surplus of netrevenues earned by the City is available to

cover any ongoing maintenance costs not metout of service charges or to reinvest inadditional facilities for City residents in thefuture.

It has been assumed that land will be procuredeither on the open market or, more probablyusing a compulsory purchase mechanism, at afair value, recognizing its developmentpotential. However, in assuming a fair value, arate of 250,000 per hectare has beenassumed, which is less than the valuespresently being paid for some new housingsites. An assumption has been made in using alower value that, if land is not available at thisrate on the open market, the presentcompulsory purchase mechanisms would needto be changed so as to set the price at areasonable value, not at the maximumcomparable current open market value.Although this approach may excite someresistance, it can be justified on the groundsthat;

a current open market values fordevelopment land often do not takeproper economic account of the cost ofinfrastructure necessary to make the landusable for development (which weestimate to be at least 150,000 perhectare); and

b the seller of the land would still earn asignificant premium (c 2,500 per cent at250,000 per hectare) over the currentuse (typically agriculture) value of theland and that it is inequitable for thelandowner to realise an excessive profitfrom the sale of the land, simply becauseplanning permission has been granted tochange the land use. To sustain thisposition will require some politicalcourage from Government, but in a

climate where there is a widespreadrecognition that there is a common


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interest in pulling together to resolvethe country s fundamental housingproblems, it should be possible to sell thismessage to the wider electorate.

Given the large number of houses to beconstructed, it is believed that reducedcontract prices can be achieved throughinnovative commercial negotiations with thechosen contractor. Since there is aconsiderable element of repetition in thebuilding of the dwellings and there is aconsiderable quantity of constructionconcentrated in a single location, thecontractor should be able, through application

of good management practices (such asJapanese manufacturing practices or Leantechniques), to reduce the cost of constructingdwellings over the life of the contract.

The cost of construction of the City willultimately be funded through the sale ofdwellings. However, until dwellings are sold,

there is a need to borrow to fundconstruction. It should be possible to structuredebt funding for the City without resort toGovernment guarantees (which would breakthe principle of no Government funding),

particularly given the security that is available.Options for debt funding range fromconventional models such as using thecommercial bond market or commercial banklending to borrowing from insurancecompanies or pension funds, both of whomare, in a time of low returns and continuingeconomic fragility, looking for access to moresecure, higher yield investment opportunities.Private Equity Funds are a further source of

funds that could be tapped.

On the basis that interest rates are likely toremain at historically low levels for theforeseeable future, interest rates used in theeconomic model have been assumed to beseven per cent.


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Capital Flows

Following the approach described above, the costs of construction of the City and capital inflows inthe seven year construction period are as follows;-

Inflowsm m

Sale of Properties;-Residential 2,931 85Commercial Leases 524 15

Total Inflows 3,455 100

Outflows

Site Clearance and Enabling Works 18 1Dwellings 1,592 48Neighbourhood Facilities 154 5Quarter Facilities 125 4Centre Facilities 168 5Transport Infrastructure 154 5Drainage Infrastructure 41 1Utilities 133 4Construction Contingency 119 4

Compensation Cost 27 1Cost of Land 139 4Fees 273 8Financing 328 10

Total Outflows 3,271 100

Net Surplus 184

Appendix [B] shows how inflows and outflowsarise over the seven year period required tobuild the City and to sell the dwellings. The NetSurplus will be available to fund furtherimprovements to the City and to fund theProperty Trust (see section on Governancebelow). It has been assumed that 34m will beretained in the City top company and 150mwill be allocated to the Property Trust toprovide capital for its activities.

The sensitivity of the Economic Model tovariations in assumptions has been tested.

Unsurprisingly, since the cost of construction isthe most significant component of the overallcost of the City, the model is most sensitive tovariations in build cost, with a givenpercentage overrun flowing through as analmost equivalent percentage overrun onoverall cost. If it proves impossible to procureland at the assumed price, and recent openmarket values of land have to be paid, theoverall cost of the City would increase byapproximately five percent.


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What will be the ownership model?

A starting presumption for the City is that itshould offer a choice of property ownershipand property rental. Choice is desirable to

maximize the range of people to whom theCity will appeal. A wholly rental model mightseem attractive, but encouraging the majorityof residents to have a financial ownershipstake in the City over the long term is likely todevelop a stronger sense of community as wellas fostering responsible citizenship and astrong interest amongst residents in sustainingthe City over the longer term as a desirableplace to live. This motivation would increasethe likelihood of residents involving

themselves in shaping the future of the Cityand in taking an active part in evolving themodel.

An ideal modern ownership model needs toenable residents easily to occupy propertiesthat are appropriate to their life stage andfamily status such as single occupancy, adultswith no children, families etc. Friction inproperty markets causes social disruption, forexample, properties that are too small for

families or properties that are too big forelderly people, as well as economicinefficiency through under occupation ofproperties. The conventional open propertymarket relies on normal market forces toensure that there is sufficient liquidity in themarket to enable people to trade up and downas their needs change. Whilst this model canwork, given a plentiful supply of properties ofall types and favourable underlying economicconditions, these conditions do not always

exist with the resulting frictional forcesexacerbating housing shortages.

Equally, although an ownership model hassignificant attractions if the City comprisesonly properties owned by individual residents,the Citys utility as a provider of houses to helpsolve the housing shortage would be severelylimited and a significant percentage of thepopulation excluded.

For these reasons a mix of freehold and rentedproperty models seems logical. However,

building a new Garden City also presents anopportunity to create new, more radical,economic models for property ownership andpricing. A mix of long-leasehold and rentedproperties is proposed, with an innovative

approach to property pricing for ownedproperties, which is cost based and not basedon open market value. Sale and purchase ofowned properties will be through amechanism run by the Governing Board of theCity. This mechanism will offer dwellings topurchasers on long leaseholds at a presettransfer price and will provide an exchange forproperties in the City, encouraging long termdwelling in the Garden City, allowing people totrade house sizes.

The intention of the innovative pricing methodand exchange mechanism is to create afeasible robust economic model whichencourages good economic management ofthe City whilst obviating the more undesirableimpacts of speculation in the domesticproperty market.

The proposed model anticipates residents whowish to own their property in the City buying

what is effectively a right to dwell in the City,enabling them to occupy a dwelling of a giventype and to trade up or down betweenproperty types. As the transfer price ofdwellings is likely to be less than the openmarket value of equivalent properties and theCitys physical design will cause it to beperceived as a desirable place to live, there islikely to be an excess of demand over supplyfor properties. Where a supply and demandmismatch occurs, it will be resolved by use of alottery mechanism to select buyers. When aresident buys their first property in the City,they are then accorded preferential rights tobuy from the stock of dwellings held by theCity when they want to trade up or down interms of dwelling size or specification.

City residents would be able to buy a newproperty from the centrally held stock, makinga payment (or receiving a refund) equivalentto the difference between the transfer price ofthe residents present property and thetransfer price of the new property.


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To provide a mix of owned and renteddwellings, ten percent of the dwellings in theCity that are not offered at a low cost will beavailable for renting at normal market rents.

What will be the price of dwellings and will theybe affordable?

Transfer Price

The Dwelling Transfer Price will be cost based.The starting point for the transfer price is thetotal construction cost of the City as set out inAppendix [C]. To the base figure will be addedtwo additional components;-

a the net present value of ten yearsrunning costs efficiencies, where runningcost efficiencies are calculated as thedifference between the energy, waterand maintenance costs of houses in theCity (which will be borne centrally andrecharged to residents) and the averageequivalent costs for the UK as a whole.The City Governing Board will calculatethe net present values annually; and

b an inflation uplift based on retail prices,excluding normal house prices.

The mechanism will serve several purposes;-

The initial build cost is funded by the firstpurchaser.

A mortgageable value is created so as toenable residents to finance propertyownership.

Transfer of ownership is enabled at asensible capital value, detached from thevagaries of boom/bust fluctuations inproperty values.

Speculation in properties in the City isimplicitly discouraged.

Cost efficiencies from, for example,energy efficiency, are encouraged as theyadd to the value of dwellings through thenet present value model.

Residents are able to trade up and down

between different types of property astheir needs change.

Low cost housing will be provided by offeringup to twenty per cent of the Citys housingstock at any one time at a twenty per centdiscount to buyers who can demonstrate that

they satisfy a set of economic and socialcriteria for owning a low cost dwelling. Theimplicit cost of the discount will be met byspreading the discount across all otherproperties through the cost based transferprice. Low cost housing will thus not beseparately identified, but will be providedindistinguishably throughout the City,achieving maximum social integration andavoiding the creation of low cost ghettos. The mechanism is demonstrated in

Appendix[D]

Affordability

The primary objective of the City is to providehousing to ameliorate the UK propertyshortage that will be attractive to a wide rangeof people, thus helping to lower resistance tothe building of the City. Particular attentionhas been paid to affordability, with the aim ofproviding houses that are reasonably

affordable, whilst recognizing that it is difficultto provide high specification energy efficienthouses in an attractive environment at lowcost. The average cost of new houses in theCity is 203,000, which is 81% of the headlineaverage cost of a UK house (250,000)

Comparing the average cost of houses in theCity with the average cost of houses in theregions in which it is proposed to build the City(or Cities), the cost of houses in the City stillcompares favourably;-

Average cost of houses in the Citycompared with Regional average costWiltshire 86%Kent 80%Essex 78%Oxfordshire 59%England 79%

It should be noted that Oxfordshires averagedwelling cost is distorted by a much richer mixof high end properties than other counties.


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As noted in the section above on TransferPrices for houses in the City, a proportion ofthe Citys housing stock is to be offered at alow cost (funded by increasing the Transfer

Price for non low cost housing). The aim ofoffering low cost housing is to help reduce theaffordability problem which is emerging inmany regions.

In October 2013 Shelter produced a report onaffordability of houses in the UK. The Reportused a particular formula to determineaffordability. Whilst this formula is by nomeans infallible, it provides a reasonable proxymeasure of affordability for a range of social

groupings;-

Comparing the low cost Transfer Price derivedfor the City with the affordable thresholdscalculated by Shelter for the relevant socialgroups shows that the Citys properties, whilstunlikely to solve the affordability problemoutright, do go some significant way to easingthe problem;-

The proposed City offers dwellings which areaffordable in all counties except Wiltshire tocouples with children and are easily affordablein all counties for couples without children.The dwellings as presently specified wouldpose more of an affordability problem forsingle persons on below average incomes. Thisis not wholly surprising given the high

specification of the Citys dwellings and their carbon neutrality.

Running the City

The City will earn revenue from a variety ofsources, the principal sources being as follows:

a) Rental income from dwellings as notedpreviously, ten per cent of the Citysdwellings will be available for rent atnormal market rents. Annual rentalincome from these properties willapproximate to 13m.

b) Rental income from commercial

properties ; offices, manufacturing units,warehouses and retail units will beavailable for rent at normal commercialrates. Annual rental income from theseproperties will approximate to 40m.

c) Service charges for utilities and otherservices ; the City will managemaintenance of residences, energyprovision (including shared heatingschemes), water, drainage and waste

management as well as management andmaintenance of all transport systems andopen spaces and public facilities so as toensure that the Citys sustainabilitypolicies are met and to be able to takeadvantage of economies of scale. TheCity will charge residents for the provisionof these services. These charges will formthe basis for the mechanism included inthe Transfer Price calculation wherebyvalue is attributed to properties based onthe difference between the cost ofrunning residential properties in the Cityand the average running costs forequivalent properties outside of the City.

d) Council Tax; the proposed modelanticipates the City providing many of theservices traditionally provided by County,District and Parish Councils, renderingDistrict and Parish Councils largelyunnecessary the governance modelprescribed for the City providing anadequate measure of democratic control


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over service provision. Council Tax andBusiness Rates will continue to be leviedon properties in the City. A portion willbe retained to cover the cost of servicesprovided by the City, with the balance

being paid over to County Councils tocover the cost of services which areprovided to City residents by the relevantCounty Council. The basis of allocationbetween the City and the relevant CountyCouncil will be as set out in Appendix [B].

e) Commission on sale of properties ; wherethe City sells a property from the stock ofproperties that it holds, it will levy a oneper cent commission, payable by the

purchaser. The rate is lower than normalestate agent commissions as there will beless work involved in selling a dwelling inthe City than is normal, partly because ofthe relative homogeneity of dwellings inthe City and partly because it isanticipated that there will be a strongdemand for dwellings in the City andtherefore marketing effort will berelatively low.

f)

Revenues from sporting and culturalevents the City will have top classsporting and cultural facilities asdescribed in the specification. It isanticipated that these facilities will beavailable to, and will attract, people fromoutside of the City. Revenues will begenerated from City dwellers and non-dwellers attending events, as well as fromsponsorship. It has been assumed that allsporting and cultural facilities will be self-funding from a revenue and coststandpoint. Given the relativeimmateriality of these inflows andoutflows, the model is not sensitive tothis assumption.

In the Economic Model, Commercial rentalstreams have been capitalized and the valuethat would be realized from their sale used tohelp fund construction of the City. Residentialrents and commission on sale of propertieshave been allocated to the Citys PropertyTrust (see below) to fund the running of the

dwelling exchange mechanism and to providean income to pay interest on bonds issued bythe Property Trust to people rentingproperties in the City.


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Governance Model

Successful build and ongoing running of thenew Garden Cities will be dependent in largepart on the legal structure and on the right

governance model to oversee developmentand ongoing management. Building the Cityand running it are two substantively differentactivities and it is proposed that two separatebodies should be established to oversee eachstage.

Development entity

The development phase will be overseen by aDevelopment Company whose objectives will

be to raise the necessary funds and to buildthe City according to the design brief. TheDevelopment Company will be a companylimited by guarantee, wholly owned by themain City corporation. Its directors will beappointed by the Government, drawn fromthe fields of construction, planning andfinance. It will have a finite life, limited to thetime required to build the City and to get it upand running. The Development Company willbe debt funded, with borrowings secured on

the City site and buildings.

Once the City is completed, it will be sold tothe corporation set up to run the City,enabling the Development Company to repaythe debt raised to build the City.

Run entity

The entity that will run the City will also be acompany limited by guarantee, having as

members the residents of the City who owntheir properties, each of whom will own oneshare in the company. These shareholders willhave the right to elect a Governing Board torun the company and the City, the GoverningBoard appointing an executive team to carryout day-to-day management of the City. Thisdevice will introduce a control mechanism toensure that the City is run well and accordingto the principles that the residents havebought into, by buying their properties in the

City. To prevent a takeover by hostile forcesthat might try to break up the City and realize

the latent value implicit in the gap betweenthe cost based transfer price of City propertiesand their open market value, the company willhave a golden share that will have the powerto outvote all other votes in the event of any

proposal to change the Citys fundamentalnature or objectives. The golden share will beheld by the Government to ensure continuity.

To ensure that the Governing Board isconstituted of capable people withappropriate expertise and experience, thegolden share will also carry the right to vetothe election of an unsuitable board member.

Property Trust

The Property Trust will finance the purchaseand sale of properties described in the sectionon Transfer Prices. Of the surplus generatedon the Capital Account, 150m will beallocated to the Property Account to providecapital to fund the stock of propertiesnecessary to provide liquidity to create aneffective market.

It has been assumed that ten percent of the

housing stock will be bought and sold eachyear. Capital of 150m will support this level ofsale, assuming a four to five month saleperiod, which is realistic given the simplicity ofthe ownership model and property history.

Strategic direction of the Property InvestmentTrust will be provided by the Governing Board.It will be managed by the Executive Board.Rented properties will be transferred to theTrust in exchange for shares in the Trust andbonds will be available for issue to peoplewishing to rent properties in the City whowant to invest in the City.

Having the option to buy a stake in the City bypurchasing bonds issued by the PropertyInvestment Trust would give people rentingproperties a greater sense of commitment tothe City. Where these residents who renttheir property decide that they want to tradeup to own a property in the City, they will begranted preference over non-residents inbuying properties from the stock held by the


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City and their bonds will be exchangeable aspart of the purchase price of the property,with the City providing an exchangemechanism, taking the bonds as considerationand reselling them on the open market in due

course.

The proposed Economic Model should attracta full cross section of society offering homeson a range of tenures and tenancies availableto all. The proposed ownership andgovernance structure will ensure thataffordability and financial investment and riskare appropriate and that the City structure issustainable and safe in the long term.

Further details of the Governance Model aregiven in Appendix [E]


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Project process

The creation of the Garden City will bemanaged in the manner of a majorinfrastructure project with clear management

processes and structure. The project stageswill be as follows.

1. Establishing the concept and vision andselling the idea. The vision of a modernGarden City will be fleshed out withexemplar designs for all the constituentcomponents, housing, infrastructure,energy transport, and landscape.Strategies for communicating the conceptwill be developed nationally, regionally

and locally.

2. Selecting sites, securing partners andengaging the community. Customersurveys, market analysis, environmentalstudies and social and industryengagement will all be undertaken toestablish viable locations and projectpartners.

3. Providing an integrated holistic design.

Comprehensive Environmental ImpactAssessments will be undertaken andcommunicated with the localcommunities. Design studies will bedeveloped for all City elements anddiscussed with customer groups. Goodfeedback links will be established with thecommunity to share ideas fordevelopment of the City.

4. Obtaining approvals and consents.Procedures for establishing high designand quality of construction will beestablished. Community engagement willbe maintained and a fair compensationprocedure put in place to address residualimpacts after mitigation.

5. An efficient development mechanismshall be set up with phasing, finance andprocurement, completion and handoverto a legacy management structure. Theprinciples inherent in ConstructingExcellence shall be incorporated into the

procurement procedure. Principles ofcontinuing improvement included inframework contracts in order to delivercost and programme benefits in respectof the high levels of repetition on a single

development site.

6. Occupation of the City. Procedures willbe established for commissioning theinfrastructure whilst construction remainsunderway. A mechanism for providingfeedback and lessons learnt will be builtinto the management approach. This maywell result in modifications to the Cityvision and the brief.

7. Establishing City governance and longterm community engagement. The Citywill be handed over to a legacyorganisation which will manage theclosed housing market and the cityinfrastructure including the tram serviceand the energy service. An effectivemethod of providing communityinvolvement and feedback will beestablished


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up, while at the same time providingdownward pressure on cost.

Development mechanisms, build and legacyprocedures.

The construction of the City will be undertakenby a build authority. The authority will thenhand over the finished product to a legacyauthority. The build authority will awardcontracts through established procurementprocedures which will include safeguards forquality and cost control. Phasing of theconstruction will take into account not onlypractical and funding issues, but alsodisruption and protection of existing

communities.

Programme

A preliminary programme outline would be asfollows;

The business case and general feasibilitywill be established as part of the conceptvision and will follow this competitionprocess. 4 months

identifying locations, securing partnersand identifying stakeholders - 18 months developing the individual schemes,

obtaining all the necessary consents andestablishing the delivery mechanism, - 24months

construction will be phased over 6 years


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Conclusions

The Garden City vision, specification andeconomic model described in our proposalsprovides a compelling answer to the

competition question. The proposals:

Create a vibrant, stimulating place to live.

Present an attractive proposal which willhelp to overcome local resistance.

Have provisions to deal with allreasonable resistance which cannot beovercome solely by the attractiveness ofthe model.

Are a repeatable solution that couldfeasibly be built in a variety of locations tohelp address present housing shortages.

Involve an innovative economic modelthat neutralises the effect of spirallinghouse prices and residential propertymarket price volatility.

Are sustainable both environmentally and

economically.

Incorporate a durable governancestructure which will ensure that the Cityremains true to its founding principles.

Come with a robust programme structurethat, if followed, will ensure successfulcompletion and fulfilment of theCompetitions ultimate objectives.

In the late twentieth century, many Citiesacquired a bad press as places of high crime,pollution and cramped dwelling. This proposalturns the tables on that perception and makesthe case for creation of a new civilised modelfor twenty-first century habitation.

A great city is not to be confused with apopulous oneAristotle

What Next

We believe this competition submissionpresents a winning Garden City proposal. Thecity specification and economic model are able

to offer not only an attractive and sustainablephysical living environment but also publicfacilities, a transport system and an energyplant owned by the City for the benefit of thecitizens.

We believe it would be very beneficial to lookin more detail at these proposals and wesuggest the following next steps:

Prepare the promotional material to take

on a road show to sell the vision andengage the community who would beattracted to the city and might beexpected to move there. This couldinclude a Garden City App whichenables aspects of the City to be exploredthrough a new medium.

Test the cost plan and financial modelwith more detailed figures based on morespecific designs and better assessments

of infrastructure requirements.

Engage with the Construction industry todevelop ideas for continuousimprovement and the investment inconstruction technologies; ie off-sitemanufacture on site, which could providelong term employment opportunitiesonce the City is complete.

Research possible locations more

thoroughly and look in more detail at thesize of the City, potential land take andownership and land values.

We hope you have found these ideasstimulating and we commend this submissionto the judges.

Mark BrierleyNVB Architectswww.nvbarchitects.co.uk

[email protected] 468030 07966 530221
http://www.nvbarchitects.co.uk/http://www.nvbarchitects.co.uk/http://www.nvbarchitects.co.uk/


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Appendices

The Wolfson Economics Prize 2014Mark BrierleyPatrick Newberry


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66530221 The Wolfson Prize Appendix A

PPENDIX [ ] Locations Wiltshire Site

The selected location in Wiltshire lies to the north of the M4 motorway and Great Western railway routes between Swindon and Chippenham. It lies north of the Brinkworth and Grittleton Brook rivers which flow into the Avon at Great Somerford. The new City would be located within the gently rolling countryside north of Brinkworth and Stoppers Hill villages and framed extensive woodland of Melbourne Common wood, Great Witney Wood and Braydon Wood.

Catchment Area Within 10km Cricklade; Purton; West Swindon Malmesbury

Within 20km Stroud Cirencester Swindon Chippenham

Network Routes M4 motorway; 3km GWR Railway; 1km

Settlements within the site 5no farms

Settlements outside the site Brinkworth village;

Stoppers Hill

Flood Risk Woodbridge brook cuts through south edge of site

Environment Assets

inside

the

site

4 small woodland areas Woodbridge brook Ramps hill Hedges and trees

Environment Assets around the site 3no large woodland areas

Power Major substation to north and

distribution grids to east and west


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Wiltshire ity Proposal

The west and south boundaries are kept clear of the villages of Brinkworth and Stoppers Hill, and a small hill provides a visual break between the two locations. The City can be linked to the M4 and have a railway station on the London/Bristol/Wales Great Western line. The woodland stands to the

north frame the city and the brook to the south forms a natural boundary which can be developed into a linear park. Further planting along the valley will provide improved screening and separation for the existing village and their residents.

Sketch showing new city


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Essex Site

The selected location in Essex lies to the east of the M11 motorway and between the 2 rail routes into Liverpool Street Station. The new City would be located just east of Chipping Ongar.

Catchment Area Within 10km Chipping Ongar Chelmsford

Within 20km Bishops Stortford Harlow Epping Braintree

Network Routes M11 motorway; 10km Railway; 3km

Settlements within the site 5no farms Norton Mandeville

Settlements outside the site Cannons Green Norton Heath High Ongar

Flood Risk Roding River flows the west but has no impact on the site.

Environment Assets inside the site 4 small woodland areas Several ponds Small brook Hedges and trees

Environment Assets around the site Roding River valley to west with several

woodlands Countryside with many historic features.


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Essex ity Proposal

The city is kept away from the dispersed settlements to the north and south. The city can be linked to the M11 via the A414 with a bypass to the north of Chipping Ongar Rail. A rail link to Liverpool Street Station, London is available from Chipping Ongar and the city can be linked to Chipping Ongar by

shuttle bus or tram. The scattered woodland landscape which is typical of the valley to the east can be extended through the city and further blocks of woodland to the east can help knit the City in place.



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Kent Site

The selected location in Kent lies to the south of the M20 and north of the railline to Charing Cross between Maidstone and Ashford. The new City would be located east of Headcorn in the gently rolling countryside framed by Dering Wood and the Sherway river..

Catchment Area Within 10km Headcorn

Within 20km Maidstone Ashford

Network Routes M20 motorway; ?km Railway; 1km

Settlements within the site

Properties on Bedlam Lane approx. 15

Settlements outside the site Swifts Green on the edge Southernden on the edge Potters Forstal Egerton Forstal

Flood Risk River Sherway runs through the southern part of the area

Environment Assets inside the site 3 small woodland area Several ponds Hedges and trees

Environment Assets around the site 3no large woodland areas including

Dering Wood and Southpark Wood


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Kent ity Proposal

The City is sited to the north of the Rail line and is connected to the M20 via a new distributor road which winds between the scattered farms to the north. The city sits between the small winding river valleys that flow towards Headcorn. The character of the valleys will be retained as parks and will give

the city its identity. Woodland blocks to the east and west frame the city and give it natural boundaries.



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1

The Wolfson Prize 2014 February 2014

APPENDIX [B] The Economic Model Assumptions Underpinning the Economic ModelKey assumptions

The key assumptions underpinning the Economic Model are as follows;

1. Number of dwellings 16,140 2. Population 40,000 3. Construction of the City will take six years 4. Costs at current levels, no allowance made for inflation 5. Building costs are typical new build costs at 2014 levels and include allowances for

preliminaries, overheads and contractors profit margins 6. All supporting infrastructure needs to be built 7. Electrical demand of 75Mw for the City can be met by a 20Mw waste biomass plant, five wind

turbines providing 2Mw each and 30Mw provided by photovoltaic panels. The balance of energy is to be supplied from the grid

8. Twenty percent of houses assumed to be low cost 9. Ten percent of non low cost houses available for rental 10. Sale prices of houses in year one to be;

Dwelling Type Non Low Cost Low Cost1 bedroom 164,000 126,0002 bedrooms 191,000 147,0003 bedrooms 201,000 154,0004 bedrooms 291,000 224,0005 bedrooms 323,000 0

Average 207,000 163,000

11. Average residential and commercial rents per square metre for the regions selected for the Cities have been used

12. Educational and hospital facilities will be provided free of charge to county/national authorities, which will be responsible for running the facilities and for funding costs

13. One hundred existing dwellings will have to be purchased under the compensation scheme (and held for subsequent letting), at an average purchase cost of 275,000 per dwelling (ten percent over the average cost of a UK dwelling)

14. Dwellings are sold within a year of construction 15. Interest rates for the period assumed to be 7%

16. Inflation assumed to be 2.5%

Outline Costs

Quantity Surveyors were asked to prepare an outline costing for the proposed City, using the specification set out in the essay. Their costings are set out in this Appendix to enable readers to gain an appreciation of the cost of the various components of the City. Some adjustments were made to these costings, as follows;

Given the large number of houses to be constructed, it is believed that a reduction in contract price can be achieved through innovative commercial negotiations with the chosen

contractor in line with the sort of contract negotiation practices that would be experienced, for example, in the Motor Industry supply chain, as anticipated by the Egan Review and


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2


Constructing Excellence. Since there is a considerable element of repetition in the building of the dwellings, the contractor should be able, through application of good management practices (such as Japanese manufacturing practices or Lean techniques), to reduce the build cost over the life of the contract. It has been assumed that a further 10% reduction in the cost of construction of dwellings can be achieved by adopting this approach, which reduces the

construction cost of dwellings produced by the quantity surveyors by some 200m to 1,592m. An allowance of 25m has been made to provide a tramway to link the Citys neighbourhoods

and quarters. An additional 10m has been included for the cost of connecting the Citys drainage

infrastructure to existing drainage systems. An additional amount of 15m has been included for legal and other fees.

Major Cash Flows And Financing Costs

The major cash flows associated with building the City and getting it up and running, including selling

dwellings and leasing commercial properties are as follows;

m Year 1

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Total

Net Capital b f

0 980 1 197 1 088 875 647 404

Build Cost 916 715 396 306 306 306 0 2 945 Sale Proceeds 0 576 576 576 576 576 576 3 456

Net Capital pre

Interest

916 1 119 1 017 818 605 377 172

Interest 64 78 71 57 42 27 12 328 Net Capital

c f 980 1 197 1 088 875 647 404 184

The cash flows set out above summarise the individual cash flows set out in the Capital Account and spread them over the time required to build the City. These cash flows have been used to derive Financing Costs, which have been calculated using a seven percent rate of interest on annual balances. Sale proceeds are calculated using the Transfer Prices set out in the Transfer Prices section.


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3


Council Tax and Business Rates

As noted in the main body, Council Tax and Business Rates will continue to be levied on properties in the City. A portion will be retained to cover the cost of services provided by the City, with the balance being paid over to County Councils to cover the cost of services which are provided to City residents

by the relevant County Council. The basis of allocation between the City and the relevant County Council will be determined as follows;

Expenditure Type Percentage Provided by the City

Comments

Education 0% Infrastructure to be provided by the City, staffing and education services to be provided by the County education authorities.

Transport 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Planning 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Fire and public safety 10% Local public safety measures to be provided as part of the efficient management of the City, Fire and other disaster prevention/remedy to be provided at a County level.

Social care 0% Most efficiently provided by the County.

Libraries 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Waste management 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Trading standards 0% Most efficiently provided by the County.

Rubbish collection 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Recycling 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Council Tax collections 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Housing 100% Total provision by the City as a central part of the proposed model.


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4


Planning applications 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Allotments 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Local amenities (e.g. play areas and play equipment, bus shelters, public seats)

100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Community centres 100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.

Grants to help local organisations

0% Most efficiently provided by the County.

Consultation on neighbourhood planning

100% Total provision by the City as there is no advantage from external involvement.


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1


PPENDIX [ ] onstruction ost

Introductory comment from the Quantity Surveyor:

With the initial feasibility completed there is a substantial amount of design development to be

carried out during the next stages and we would seek to maximise opportunities to reduce costs and manage risks on overall project costs. As part this process we would look to innovative design, alternative methods of procurement and construction and adopt the principles of continuous improvement to ensure value for money is achieved.


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Description Site Clearance & Enabling Works 17,824,000 0.7%

NeighbourhoodsHousing 15 nr 117,436,240 1,761,543,600 67%

Neighbourhood Facilities 15 nr 10,265,750 153,986,250 6%

Quarter Facilities 3 nr 41,504,500 124,513,500 5%

Centre Facilities 168,200,000 6%

Transport Infrastructure 128,690,000 5%

Drainage Infrastructure 30,627,000 1%

Utilities 132,865,000 5%

Construction Contingency @ 5% 125,912,468 5%

TOTAL ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION

COST (as at Q1 2014)2,644,161,818

TOTAL ROUNDED CONSTRUCTION COST 2,650,000,000

New Garden City

Order of Cost Estimate

OVERALL SUMMARY


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Basis of Estimate1

2

Assumptions1 Estimated costs are at current levels: Q1 2014. No allowance has been made for inflation.2 Costs relate to a notional site in South West England.3

4

5

6

Exclusions1 Professional Fees.2 Section 106 and Section 278 allowances beyond items stated.3 Planning fees.4 Land acquisition costs and legal fees.5 Works within third party areas.6 Offsite works beyond items stated.7 Major remediation/contamination/demolition requirements.8 Requisitions and upgrades of the existing utilities beyond the site.9 Buried obstructions and services other than those described within the estimate.

10 Maintenance and replacement costs between completion and adoption.11 Local Authority Supervision Costs.12 Planning Application and Statutory Approval fees.13 Archaeological, Horticultural, Environmental and Arboriculture surveys/removals etc.

14 Development expenses.15 Flooding enhancements to protect developments.16 Income generated from the site.17 Contributions from outside sources.18 Benefits arising from any potential Capital Allowances or Enhanced Capital Allowances.19 Grants from outside sources.20 Tax relief.21 Developer finance charges.22 Inflation beyond base date.23 Design risk and Developer Risk contingencies.24 VAT25 See specific notes within cost plan.

New Garden City

Infrastructure Indicative Costs

BASIS & EXCLUSIONS

This estimate has been prepared to give an indication of the order of cost for the construction of anew Garden City of 16,140 dwellings.

Building prices are typical new build costs at Q1 2014 price levels and include for preliminaries andoverhead and profit. They do not allow for external works, furniture, loose or special equipment andare exclusive of professional fees.

It is assumed water supply to the new settlement would be from an existing supply point andtherefore we have excluded the cost of creating a new reservoir.We have assumed an electrical demand of 75Mw for the settlement which can be met by a 20Mwwaste biomass plant, 5nr wind turbines providing 2Mw each and 30Mw from PV panels. Theremainder to be supplied from the national grid.

Infrastructure costs have been based upon information provided by a Services Engineer andallowances made based upon similar schemes. These costs are site specific and therefore costsprovided within this submission are only indicative.

This estimate has been based upon discussions and indicative dwelling numbers, plot sizes andbuilding areas provided by the submission author. No detailed design information or specificationhas been made available.


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SITE CLEARANCE & ENABLING WORKS SUMMARY Demolitions 2,500,000 Site Remediation ExcludedArchaeology 2,780,000 Bulk Earthworks 9,544,000 Ecology 2,000,000 Existing Woodland Areas 1,000,000 TOTAL CARRIED TO OVERALL SUMMARY 17,824,000

Description Quantity Unit Rate TotalDemolitionsDemolish existing structures ALLOW 500,000

Removal of other above ground obstructions ALLOW 500,000

Break up oversite roads ALLOW 1,000,000 Termination of on site services and fillingredundant pipes

item 500,000

Total Carried to Summary 2,500,000

Site Remediation

Assumed all Farmland with no contamination Excluded

Total Carried to Summary -

ArchaeologySite investigation dig across developable landareas (does not allow for ongoing removalwork)

556 ha 5,000 2,780,000


Bulk EarthworksDevelopable Land 556haTopsoil site strip (200 thick) 1,112,000 m 1 1,112,000 Extra, for double handling 1,112,000 m 6 6,672,000

Provision for reduce level excavation say 0.50mdeep across area of roads to create correctgradients/sight lines

220,000 m 2 440,000

Extra: transport material and placing instrategic 'drainage corridors' to assit withgravity fed drainage

220,000 m 6 1,320,000


EcologyEcology mitigation, including tree protectionand maintaining habitats during constructionprogramme

ALLOW 2,000,000


Existing Woodland AreasManagement of existing woodland areas ALLOW 1,000,000

New Garden City


SITE CLEARANCE & ENABLING WORKS


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HOUSING SUMMARY (1076nr Units) Site Preparation & External Works 18,019,040 Residential Development: 1076nr dwellings 83,061,200 Sustainability Premiums 12,502,000 Car Parking 3,854,000 TOTAL CARRIED TO OVERALL SUMMARY 117,436,240

Description Quantity Unit Rate TotalSite Preparation & External WorksSite preparation works generally 270,000 m 5 1,350,000 Mains utility services 78,848 m 20 1,576,960 Surface and Foulwater drainage 78,848 m 15 1,182,720 Plot external works; roads, lighting and softlandscaping, say 60% site area

162,000 m 80 12,960,000

Private front and rear gardens, assume 3, 4 & 5bed only and 50% dwelling area

23,734 m 40 949,360


Residential Development: 1076nr dwellings1 bedroom (225nr @ 50m) assumed within low

rise apartment building11,250 m 1,250 14,062,500

2 bedroom (330nr @ 61m) assumed within low rise apartment building

20,130 m 1,250 25,162,500

3 bedroom (300nr @ 87m) 26,100 m 950 24,795,000 4 bedroom (183nr @ 96m) 17,568 m 900 15,811,200 5 bedroom (38nr @ 100m) 3,800 m 850 3,230,000 Total Carried to Summary 78,848 83,061,200

Sustainability Premiums

1-2 Bedroom Low Rise Apartment 555 nr 9,000 4,995,000

3 Bedroom Terrace/Semi Detached House 300 nr 12,500 3,750,000 4-5 Bedroom Detached House 221 nr 17,000 3,757,000 Total Carried to Summary 12,502,000

Car ParkingShared surface level car parking assumes 1nrspace for 1 bedroom and 2nr space perremaining dwellings

1,927 nr 2,000 3,854,000


Indicative extra over cost to achieve 'Zero Carbon Homes' status. Assumes base buildcost meets Part L1a of 2010 Building Regulations and methods are: minimum fabricefficiency standards, air source heat pump, PV panels, solar hot water and "allowablesolutions" contribution.

New Garden City


HOUSING (1076nr Units)


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NEIGHBOURHOOD FACILITIES SUMMARY (1nr) BUILDINGSSite Preparation & External Works 1,666,750 Buildings 6,195,000 Sustainability Premiums 1,239,000 Car Parking 200,000 PUBLIC OPEN SPACESite Preparation 200,000 Hard & Soft Landscaping 230,000 Play Equipment 350,000 Allotments 105,000 School Playing Field 80,000 TOTAL CARRIED TO OVERALL SUMMARY 10,265,750

Description Quantity Unit Rate TotalBUILDINGSSite Preparation & External WorksSite preparation works generally 20,000 m 5 100,000 Mains utility services 3,050 m 20 61,000 Surface and Foulwater drainage 3,050 m 15 45,750 Plot external works; roads, lighting and softlandscaping say 60% site area

12,000 m 80 960,000

Public art/features 1 item 500,000 500,000 Total Carried to Summary 1,666,750

Buildings420 child (2FE) Primary School 2,250 m 2,400 5,400,000 60 child (2FE) Nursery School 200 m 1,650 330,000 Community Centre 100 m 1,400 140,000 Local convenience store (shell only) 500 m 650 325,000 Total Carried to Summary 6,195,000

Sustainability PremiumsE/O Cost to

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