Still PlanarStill PlanarStill PlanarAfter All These YearsAfter All These YearsAfter All These Years
Michael A Fury Ph DMichael A Fury Ph DMichael A. Fury, Ph.D.Michael A. Fury, Ph.D.InterCrossIP Management LLCInterCrossIP Management LLC
July 16, 2008July 16, 2008
Techcet Group, LLCTechcet Group, LLC
1
[email protected] [email protected] www.techcet.comwww.techcet.com
OutlineOutline
The BusinessThe BusinessThe PlayersThe PlayersThe BuzzThe BuzzThe End
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 2
The Business of CMPThe Business of CMP
Slurries $1.0BSlurries $1.0B 3 year CAGR 0-20%Worth discussing some more?g
Pads $600M3 year CAGR 9-18%3 year CAGR 9 18%
CMP Ancillaries $300MCMP Ancillaries $300MPad Conditioners, Cu PCMP Cleaners, PVA Brushes (excludes filters & retaining rings)
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 3
Brushes (excludes filters & retaining rings)
Slurry Revenue SourcesSlurry Revenue Sources
S-STI8%
ILD16%
Cu barrier19%
Tungsten29%
Cu step 128%
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 4
How Might Slurries Stagnate?3 year CAGR 0-20% ?
Slurry volumes grow with chip volumesSlurry volumes grow with chip volumesas expected
Slurry costs are under a lot of pressureSlurry costs are under a lot of pressureas expected
F b i d b lFab engineers can do more about slurry costs than about other CMP consumable costs
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 5
Fab EngineersgThose Magnificent Men (and Women) in their Polishing Machines
POU slurry dilutionPOU slurry dilution2:1 to 10:1
Lower slurry flow ratesLower slurry flow ratesRemember the Photoresist Alamo!
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 6
Pads Holding Their OwnPads Holding Their Own
Not as much specialization by CMPNot as much specialization by CMP application
Diffuses focusDiffuses focusPad longevity increasing with kinder, gentler conditioning or none at allgentler conditioning – or none at all
Defuses cost pressureP bli i i ll ld ldPublic opinion poll: same old same old
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 7
CMP AncillariesCMP Ancillaries
Pad conditioners are the hotbedPad conditioners are the hotbedNew materials, new designs, new research
Cu PCMP is still a growth marketCu PCMP is still a growth marketW PCMP niches will grow below 45nmS STI PCMP h i i f lifS-STI PCMP showing signs of life
PVA brushes – new names, new designsFilters – the quiet companiesRetaining rings – new materials
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 8
eta g gs e ate a s
The Players - SlurryThe Players Slurry
Cabot, the 800 pound gorilla…p g
TungstenStill the cash coW
RHEM 2%Fujimi 4%
Still the cash coW
DA Nano 8%
Cheil 8%
Cabot
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUGJuly 16, 2008 9
Cabot78%
The Players - SlurryThe Players Slurry
Cabot, the 800 pound gorilla… what the… !?!?!?p g
ILD Cu Step 187% not CabotWas once 85% Cabot
DA Nano 1%
Other9% Fujimi
23%
Planar Sol'n1%JSR 10%
87% not CabotWas once 85% Cabot
Cabot42%Fujimi 12%
Planar Sol'n 7%23%
Cabot 13%
RHEM
DA Nano23%
RHEM 16%
Hitachi 14%
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 10
RHEM30%
RHEM 16%
The Players - SlurryThe Players Slurry
Cabot, the 800 pound gorilla… on a Slim Fast dietp g
Cu Barrier S-STI96% Cabot-free97% Cabot-free
Cabot 3%Fujimi 1%
DA Nano 10%RHEM 4%
Other 10%
96% Cabot free97% Cabot free
Hitachi 11% Planar Sol'n41% DA Nano 6%
RHEM 4%
Cabot 4%
RHEM 16%
Hitachi77%
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 11
JSR 18%77%
The Players - PadsThe Players Pads
RHEM, the once and future King, g
CMP PadsCMP Pads
Thomas West 5%
84% and declining but still hungry
RHEM84% Other 4%
JSR 5%
Thomas West 5%
Cabot 3%
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 12
The Buzz – Big BizThe Buzz Big Biz
Dow Chemical acquires Rohm & HaasDow Chemical acquires Rohm & Haas Corporation for $18.8B July 10, 2008
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 13
The Buzz - SlurryThe Buzz Slurry
Hitachi Chemical commands S-STIHitachi Chemical commands S STIPlanar Solutions – breakout leader in Cu barrierCu barrierFive suppliers over 10% share in Cu t 1 t 20%step 1, two over 20%
Cabot slurry overall revenue share is fdown to 35%, even with 78% of the W
market
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 14
The Buzz - PadsThe Buzz Pads
Innopad & Cabot pads replacing RHEMInnopad & Cabot pads replacing RHEM for W; TWI share is holdingJSR Cu step 1 pads used on AMATJSR Cu step 1 pads used on AMATCabot Cu step 1pads find home on EbaraPraxair ILD pads gaining as AMAT BKMNexPlanar – re-birth on July 10y
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 15
The Buzz – The BizThe Buzz The Biz
Proprietary PCMP cleaners are aliveProprietary PCMP cleaners are alive and well, and getting better
Orphaned EKC & APCI PCMP productsOrphaned EKC & APCI PCMP products need a homeCabot PCMP strategy undefinedCabot PCMP strategy undefined
PVA brushes will live well through several more nodesseveral more nodes
Molded-on-the-core may be the enabler
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 16
The Buzz – The BizThe Buzz The Biz
SEZ into Lam – PCMP in your future?SEZ into Lam PCMP in your future?Fixed abrasive pads have found a non-threatening nichethreatening nicheLam Teres – R.I.P.ECMP – R.I.P.Novellus CMP – resting in piecesg p
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 17
The EndThe End
CMP growth is keeping pace with theCMP growth is keeping pace with the semiconductor industry
Evolution not revolutionEvolution, not revolutionNo threats to CMP status quoS li d k t h illSuppliers and market shares will continue to shift over time, but CMP
illrevenues will soar
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 18
Contact Techcet Group, LLCContact Techcet Group, LLC
Lita Shon-RoyLita Shon Roy925-413-9373LShonRoy@Techcet [email protected]
Michael A FuryMichael A. Fury415-395-6945
@ l C [email protected]
© 2008 Techcet Group, LLCNCCAVS CMPUG
July 16, 2008 19
