Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios

Glenn Horrocks

John Tonitto

BWRS

Scenarios

• Tower Logs

• Witness Report: Blenman

• Witness Report: 4wd party

Stochastic AnalysisStochastic Analysis

Scenario 1: Tower Logs

Nominal STD Source

Tower bearing at 19:36:00 320° 2° Log transcript

Tower range at 19:36:00 48NM 0.5NM Log transcript

Aircraft Heading 140° 10° Log transcript

Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment

Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment

Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis

Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis

Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis

Wind direction 230° 10° John Watson’s analysis

Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience

Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2 GH and JT experience

Burraga Swamp

Mt Lumeah

Careys Peak Track

Allyn River

Paterson River

Burraga Swamp

Mt Lumeah

Scenario 2: Blenman

Nominal STD Source

Blenman’s Location 5540 4910 0 Eyewitness account – JT

Time of Blenman’s sighting 19:38:30 0 Eyewitness account – JT

Aircraft distance from Blenman

7km 0.5NM Eyewitness account – JT

Aircraft bearing from Blenman

240° 2° Eyewitness account – JT

Aircraft Heading 45° 30° Eyewitness account – JT

Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment

Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment

Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis

Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis

Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis

Wind direction 230° 10° John Watson’s analysis

Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience

Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2 GH and JT experience

Burraga Swamp Paterson River Allyn River

Mt Lumeah

Scenario 3: 4wd

Nominal STD Source

Location at 19:31:10 4540 4010 0.5NM Eyewitness account – JT

Aircraft Heading 45° 30° Eyewitness account – JT

Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment

Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment

Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis

Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis

Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis

Wind direction 230° 10° John Watson’s analysis

Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience

Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2 GH and JT experience

Burraga Swamp

Paterson River Allyn RiverWilliams River

Careys Peak Track

Rawdon Vale(25km W of Gloucester)

Burraga Swamp

Paterson River

Allyn River

Careys Peak Track

Mt Lumeah