Stock Analysis Example

8/7/2019 Stock Analysis Example

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/stock-analysis-example 1/27



for analysis.

sure the return variation

e stock volatility



Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close

3/1/2011 1119 1164 1058.25 1118.2 207600 1118.2

2/1/2011 1157.2 1195.95 1056.1 1112.95 210700 1112.95

1/3/2011 1165 1221 1087.3 1157.15 215600 1157.15

12/1/2010 1067.55 1179 1050 1165.05 152900 1165.05

11/1/2010 1053 1107 1002 1076.7 133300 1076.7

10/1/2010 928.8 1069.6 922.55 1051.8 300500 1049.8

9/1/2010 844 1006 835 922.55 314200 920.8

8/2/2010 846 883.4 829.7 843.85 216800 842.25

7/1/2010 748 858.9 725.5 841.1 364500 839.5

6/1/2010 742 797.45 732.9 751.15 154400 747.97

5/3/2010 756 777 692 742 212100 735.07

4/1/2010 786.9 834.9 730 766 333400 758.84

3/2/2010 763.1 844 755.85 780.8 304700 773.51

2/1/2010 735.45 777 709.6 761 190500 753.89

1/4/2010 750.7 816.4 696.6 735.45 460000 728.58

12/1/2009 696 755.95 677.35 749.75 261700 740.78

11/3/2009 625 711.4 602.25 687.2 369000 678.98

10/1/2009 620 656.85 556.6 626.2 635500 618.71

9/1/2009 534 621.9 519 619.35 627900 610.03

8/3/2009 527 559.9 435.55 527 635900 519.07

7/1/2009 380 540.1 368 526.4 853300 518.48

6/1/2009 680 805 355.25 389.7 461600 382.24

5/4/2009 600 794.7 600 699.75 404900 681.95

4/1/2009 505.25 627.2 505.25 623.2 418700 607.35

3/2/2009 475 585 439.15 540 267300 526.27

2/2/2009 507 526.8 456 480.6 228200 468.38

1/1/2009 485 556.9 466.2 511.95 404400 498.93

12/1/2008 569 591.7 460 478.1 392300 463.14

11/3/2008 560 570 456.1 558.05 471800 540.59

10/1/2008 670 682.8 418 537.45 582700 520.64

9/1/2008 810 875 575 662.75 277400 638.45

8/1/2008 829 870 782.5 812.45 206500 782.67

7/1/2008 858.8 890 719.1 832.55 321700 802.03

6/2/2008 1028 1054 800 858.8 339100 824.36

5/2/2008 930 1047.95 874.9 1029.25 469000 982.61

4/1/2008 815 1038.7 811 919.55 312500 877.88

3/3/2008 869.5 899 755 810.9 196300 774.16

2/1/2008 882 987 821.15 874.3 177700 834.68

1/1/2008 1065.1 1078 730 875.25 167200 835.59

12/3/2007 1015 1124.95 1002.2 1083.35 261100 1030.38

11/1/2007 1065 1065 935 1013.95 217800 964.37

10/1/2007 1060 1151 1000 1037.9 494500 987.15

9/3/2007 1071 1086.9 978 1056.75 312800 1002.35

8/1/2007 1145 1188.4 998 1065 251700 1010.18

7/2/2007 1152 1200 1100.7 1158.45 258600 1098.826/4/2007 1229 1244 1118.2 1149.25 417900 1087.33

5/3/2007 1275 1299.5 1205 1208.6 252700 1139.69



4/2/2007 1223 1330 1171.1 1265.7 283400 1193.53

3/1/2007 1200 1320 1129.85 1231.2 279800 1161

2/1/2007 1300 1350 1170 1188.45 685200 1120.69

1/2/2007 1250 1399 1200 1278.6 277800 1205.7



Adjusted Close price will be used foranalysis

Data Points: 51

Start Date: 2-Jan-2007

End Date: 1-Mar-2011





Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close

3/1/2011 17982.28 18858.3 17792.17 18815.64 18400 ###

2/1/2011 18425.18 18690.97 17295.62 17823.4 23200 17823.4

1/3/2011 20621.61 20664.8 18038.48 18327.76 16600 ###

12/1/2010 19529.99 20552.03 19074.57 20509.09 13800 ###

11/1/2010 20272.49 21108.64 18954.82 19521.25 14600 ###

10/1/2010 20094.1 20854.55 19768.96 20032.34 14400 ###

9/1/2010 18027.12 20267.98 18027.12 20069.12 16600 ###

8/2/2010 17911.31 18475.27 17819.99 17971.12 14900 ###

7/1/2010 17679.34 18237.56 17395.58 17868.29 15600 ###

6/1/2010 16942.82 17919.62 16318.39 17700.9 23500 17700.9

5/3/2010 17536.86 17536.86 15960.15 16944.63 19700 ###

4/1/2010 17555.04 18047.86 17276.8 17558.71 13600 ###

3/2/2010 16438.45 17793.01 16438.45 17527.77 18100 ###

2/1/2010 16339.32 16669.25 15651.99 16429.55 20100 ###

1/4/2010 17473.45 17790.33 15982.08 16357.96 21900 ###

12/1/2009 16947.46 17530.94 16577.78 17464.81 19800 ###

11/3/2009 15838.63 17290.48 15330.56 16926.22 25000 ###

10/1/2009 17186.2 17457.26 15805.2 15896.28 31500 ###

9/1/2009 15691.27 17142.52 15356.72 17126.84 28500 ###

8/3/2009 15694.78 16002.46 14684.45 15666.64 29700 ###

7/1/2009 14493.84 15732.81 13219.99 15670.31 36300 ###

6/1/2009 14790.89 15600.3 14016.95 14493.84 40300 ###

5/4/2009 11635.24 14930.54 11621.3 14625.25 54700 ###

4/1/2009 9745.77 11492.1 9546.29 11403.25 52900 ###

3/2/2009 8762.88 10127.09 8047.17 9708.5 46000 9708.5

2/2/2009 9363.58 9724.87 8619.22 8891.61 36600 8891.61

1/2/2009 9973.06 10469.72 8631.6 9424.24 61400 9424.24

12/1/2008 9162.94 10188.54 8467.43 9647.31 56300 9647.31

11/3/2008 10209.37 10945.41 8316.39 9092.72 48300 9092.72

10/1/2008 13006.72 13203.86 7697.39 9788.06 46400 9788.06

9/1/2008 14412.99 15107.01 12153.55 12860.43 31700 ###

8/1/2008 14064.26 15579.78 14002.43 14564.53 25200 ###

7/1/2008 13480.02 15130.09 12514.99 14355.75 30300 ###

6/2/2008 16591.46 16632.72 13405.54 13461.6 24300 13461.6

5/2/2008 17560.15 17735.7 16196.02 16415.57 20100 ###

4/1/2008 15771.72 17480.74 15297.96 17287.31 21100 ###

3/3/2008 17227.56 17227.56 14677.24 15644.44 25900 ###

2/1/2008 17820.67 18895.34 16457.74 17578.72 16800 ###

1/2/2008 20393.1 21206.77 15332.42 17648.71 21400 ###

12/3/2007 19547.09 20498.11 18886.4 20286.99 13800 ###

11/1/2007 20130.23 20204.21 18182.83 19363.19 16600 ###

10/1/2007 17356.99 20238.16 17144.58 19837.99 30500 ###

9/3/2007 15401.99 17361.47 15323.05 17291.1 20600 17291.1

8/1/2007 15344.02 15542.4 13779.88 15318.6 16700 15318.6

7/2/2007 14685.16 15868.85 14638.88 15550.99 18500 ###6/1/2007 14610.28 14683.36 13946.99 14650.51 14300 ###

5/3/2007 13987.77 14576.37 13562.95 14544.46 15300 ###



4/2/2007 12811.93 14383.72 12425.52 13872.37 18400 ###

3/1/2007 13013.74 13386.95 12316.1 13072.1 18400 13072.1

2/1/2007 14124.36 14723.88 12800.91 12938.09 19000 ###

1/2/2007 13827.77 14325.92 13303.22 14090.92 16100 ###



Adjusted Close value of SENSEX will beused for analysis

Data Points: 51

Start Date: 2-Jan-2007

End Date: 1-Mar-2011





Date Adj Close (TCSAdj Close (SensexRate of Return (TC Rate of Return (Sense

3/1/2011 1118.2 18815.64 0.004717 0.055671

2/1/2011 1112.95 17823.4 -0.038197 -0.027519

1/3/2011 1157.15 18327.76 -0.006781 -0.106359

### 1165.05 20509.09 0.082056 0.050603

### 1076.7 19521.25 0.025624 -0.025513

### 1049.8 20032.34 0.140096 -0.001833

9/1/2010 920.8 20069.12 0.093262 0.116743

8/2/2010 842.25 17971.12 0.003276 0.005755

7/1/2010 839.5 17868.29 0.122371 0.009457

6/1/2010 747.97 17700.9 0.017549 0.044632

5/3/2010 735.07 16944.63 -0.031324 -0.034973

4/1/2010 758.84 17558.71 -0.018965 0.001765

3/2/2010 773.51 17527.77 0.026025 0.066844

2/1/2010 753.89 16429.55 0.034739 0.004376

1/4/2010 728.58 16357.96 -0.016469 -0.063376

### 740.78 17464.81 0.091019 0.031820

### 678.98 16926.22 0.097412 0.064791

### 618.71 15896.28 0.014229 -0.071850

9/1/2009 610.03 17126.84 0.175236 0.093204

8/3/2009 519.07 15666.64 0.001138 -0.000234

7/1/2009 518.48 15670.31 0.356425 0.081170

6/1/2009 382.24 14493.84 -0.439490 -0.008985

5/4/2009 681.95 14625.25 0.122829 0.282551

4/1/2009 607.35 11403.25 0.154065 0.174564

3/2/2009 526.27 9708.5 0.123596 0.091872

2/2/2009 468.38 8891.61 -0.061231 -0.056517

1/1/2009 498.93 9424.24 0.077277 -0.023123

### 463.14 9647.31 -0.143269 0.060993

### 540.59 9092.72 0.038318 -0.071040

### 520.64 9788.06 -0.184525 -0.238901

9/1/2008 638.45 12860.43 -0.184267 -0.117003

8/1/2008 782.67 14564.53 -0.024139 0.014543

7/1/2008 802.03 14355.75 -0.027088 0.066422

6/2/2008 824.36 13461.6 -0.161051 -0.179949

5/2/2008 982.61 16415.57 0.119299 -0.0504274/1/2008 877.88 17287.31 0.133977 0.105013

3/3/2008 774.16 15644.44 -0.072507 -0.110035

2/1/2008 834.68 17578.72 -0.001089 -0.003966

1/1/2008 835.59 17648.71 -0.189047 -0.130048

### 1030.38 20286.99 0.068449 0.047709

### 964.37 19363.19 -0.023077 -0.023934

### 987.15 19837.99 -0.015164 0.147295

9/3/2007 1002.35 17291.1 -0.007751 0.128765

8/1/2007 1010.18 15318.6 -0.080668 -0.014944

7/2/2007 1098.82 15550.99 0.010567 0.0614646/4/2007 1087.33 14650.51 -0.045942 0.007291

5/3/2007 1139.69 14544.46 -0.045110 0.048448



4/2/2007 1193.53 13872.37 0.028019 0.061220

3/1/2007 1161 13072.1 0.035969 0.010358

2/1/2007 1120.69 12938.09 -0.070507 -0.081814

1/2/2007 1205.7 14090.92



Beta

0.693595

Analysis

A Beta value of 0.69 suggests that stock is less

volatile than market in general.

SLOPE function has been used to calculate s

Example:

Stock Beta = 0.69

Market % Return Stock % Return

10% 6.90%

-8% -5.52%

If market return is 10% then stock return will be 6.

If market return is -8% then stock return will be -5

Such stocks have Lower Return but Lower Risk als

compared to overall market fluctuations





ock beta

.9%

.52%

o when





SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.53

R Square 0.28

Adjusted R Squ 0.26

Standard Error 0.1

Observations 50

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 0.19 0.19 18.46 0

Residual 48 0.51 0.01

Total 49 0.7

Coefficientstandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95%Intercept 0 0.01 -0.04 0.97 -0.03

Sensex (x varia 0.69 0.16 4.3 0 0.37

Relationship between Sen

Using regression analysis to produce an equation that will predict a d

Equation of the form of: Y=b1x1+b2x2+….+A

Using the coefficients values the equation for TCS to Sensex relation

y = 0.693x - 0.00064

NOTE:

- Relationship can be said to be linear in nature

- It is a positive relationship which can be derived from the sl

- It is a strong relationship which is evident from a R square

- There are few outlier points also noted in the scatter plot



Upper 95%ower 95.0 pper 95.0%0.03 -0.03 0.03

1.02 0.37 1.02

sex & TCS stock

ependent variable using one or more independent variables.

hip will be:

ope gradient (refer Scatter Plot - TCS Chart)

alue of .277



-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

TCS



Analysis

1) Relationship between Sensex & TCS

2) Strong relationship which is evident f

3) Relationship is positive as indicated b

4) Most of the points fall around the tre

though there are some clear outliers als

0.30

TCS

Linear Regression forTCS



eems to be linear

om the high R Square

y the upward trent line

d line

o



TCS SENSEX

0.00620 0.00986

Variance 0.01430 Variance 0.00825

0.11957 0.09085

0.11957 0.09085

Date

3/1/2011 1118.2 18815.64 0.004717 0.055671 -0.15%

2/1/2011 1112.95 17823.4 -0.038197 -0.027519 -4.44%

1/3/2011 1157.15 18327.76 -0.006781 -0.106359 -1.30%

### 1165.05 20509.09 0.082056 0.050603 7.59%

### 1076.7 19521.25 0.025624 -0.025513 1.94%

### 1049.8 20032.34 0.140096 -0.001833 13.39%

9/1/2010 920.8 20069.12 0.093262 0.116743 8.71%

8/2/2010 842.25 17971.12 0.003276 0.005755 -0.29%

7/1/2010 839.5 17868.29 0.122371 0.009457 11.62%

6/1/2010 747.97 17700.9 0.017549 0.044632 1.14%

5/3/2010 735.07 16944.63 -0.031324 -0.034973 -3.75%

4/1/2010 758.84 17558.71 -0.018965 0.001765 -2.52%

3/2/2010 773.51 17527.77 0.026025 0.066844 1.98%

2/1/2010 753.89 16429.55 0.034739 0.004376 2.85%

1/4/2010 728.58 16357.96 -0.016469 -0.063376 -2.27%

### 740.78 17464.81 0.091019 0.031820 8.48%

### 678.98 16926.22 0.097412 0.064791 9.12%

### 618.71 15896.28 0.014229 -0.071850 0.80%

9/1/2009 610.03 17126.84 0.175236 0.093204 16.90%

8/3/2009 519.07 15666.64 0.001138 -0.000234 -0.51%

7/1/2009 518.48 15670.31 0.356425 0.081170 35.02%

6/1/2009 382.24 14493.84 -0.439490 -0.008985 -44.57%

5/4/2009 681.95 14625.25 0.122829 0.282551 11.66%

4/1/2009 607.35 11403.25 0.154065 0.174564 14.79%

3/2/2009 526.27 9708.5 0.123596 0.091872 11.74%

2/2/2009 468.38 8891.61 -0.061231 -0.056517 -6.74%

1/1/2009 498.93 9424.24 0.077277 -0.023123 7.11%

### 463.14 9647.31 -0.143269 0.060993 -14.95%

### 540.59 9092.72 0.038318 -0.071040 3.21%

### 520.64 9788.06 -0.184525 -0.238901 -19.07%

9/1/2008 638.45 12860.43 -0.184267 -0.117003 -19.05%

8/1/2008 782.67 14564.53 -0.024139 0.014543 -3.03%

7/1/2008 802.03 14355.75 -0.027088 0.066422 -3.33%6/2/2008 824.36 13461.6 -0.161051 -0.179949 -16.72%

5/2/2008 982.61 16415.57 0.119299 -0.050427 11.31%

Average Rateof Return

Average Rate of Return

StandardDeviation(calculated)

StandardDeviation(calculated)

Deviation(formula)

Deviation(formula)

AdjClose(TCS)

Adj Close(Sensex)

Rate of Return(TCS)

Rate of Return(Sensex)

Deviation -TCS



4/1/2008 877.88 17287.31 0.133977 0.105013 12.78%

3/3/2008 774.16 15644.44 -0.072507 -0.110035 -7.87%

2/1/2008 834.68 17578.72 -0.001089 -0.003966 -0.73%

1/1/2008 835.59 17648.71 -0.189047 -0.130048 -19.52%

### 1030.38 20286.99 0.068449 0.047709 6.23%

### 964.37 19363.19 -0.023077 -0.023934 -2.93%

### 987.15 19837.99 -0.015164 0.147295 -2.14%

9/3/2007 1002.35 17291.1 -0.007751 0.128765 -1.39%

8/1/2007 1010.18 15318.6 -0.080668 -0.014944 -8.69%

7/2/2007 1098.82 15550.99 0.010567 0.061464 0.44%

6/4/2007 1087.33 14650.51 -0.045942 0.007291 -5.21%

5/3/2007 1139.69 14544.46 -0.045110 0.048448 -5.13%

4/2/2007 1193.53 13872.37 0.028019 0.061220 2.18%

3/1/2007 1161 13072.1 0.035969 0.010358 2.98%

2/1/2007 1120.69 12938.09 -0.070507 -0.081814 -7.67%

1/2/2007 1205.7 14090.92



0.000002 4.58% 0.002099 -5.0 -0.59 ### ### 0.00002

0.001971 -3.74% 0.001397 -4.8 -0.57 ### ### 0.00004

0.000168 -11.62% 0.013507 -4.6 -0.54 ### ### 0.00011

0.005755 4.07% 0.001660 -4.4 -0.52 ### ### 0.00027

0.000377 -3.54% 0.001251 -4.2 -0.5 ### ### 0.00065

0.017929 -1.17% 0.000137 -4.0 -0.47 ### ### 0.00147

0.007580 10.69% 0.011424 -3.8 -0.45 ### ### 0.00321

0.000009 -0.41% 0.000017 -3.6 -0.42 ### ### 0.00674

0.013496 -0.04% 0.000000 -3.4 -0.4 ### ### 0.01356

0.000129 3.48% 0.001209 -3.2 -0.38 ### ### 0.02624

0.001408 -4.48% 0.002010 -3.0 -0.35 ### ### 0.04878

0.000633 -0.81% 0.000066 -2.8 -0.33 ### ### 0.08713

0.000393 5.70% 0.003247 -2.6 -0.3 ### ### 0.14951

0.000815 -0.55% 0.000030 -2.4 -0.28 ### ### 0.24650

0.000514 -7.32% 0.005364 -2.2 -0.26 ### ### 0.39048

0.007195 2.20% 0.000482 -2.0 -0.23 ### ### 0.59430

0.008320 5.49% 0.003017 -1.8 -0.21 ### ### 0.86903

0.000064 -8.17% 0.006676 -1.6 -0.19 ### ### 1.22094

0.028574 8.33% 0.006946 -1.4 -0.16 ### ### 1.64810

0.000026 -1.01% 0.000102 -1.2 -0.14 ### ### 2.13747

0.122659 7.13% 0.005085 -1.0 -0.11 ### ### 2.66345

0.198637 -1.88% 0.000355 -0.8 -0.09 ### ### 3.18873

0.013603 27.27% 0.074360 -0.6 -0.07 ### ### 3.66791

0.021865 16.47% 0.027127 -0.4 -0.04 ### ### 4.05367

0.013782 8.20% 0.006726 -0.2 -0.02 ### ### 4.30434

0.004547 -6.64% 0.004406 0.0 0.01 ### ### 4.39129

0.005052 -3.30% 0.001088 0.2 0.03 ### ### 4.30434

0.022340 5.11% 0.002615 0.4 0.05 ### ### 4.05367

0.001032 -8.09% 0.006545 0.6 0.08 ### ### 3.66791

0.036375 -24.88% 0.061882 0.8 0.1 ### ### 3.18873

0.036277 -12.69% 0.016094 1.0 0.13 ### ### 2.66345

0.000920 0.47% 0.000022 1.2 0.15 ### ### 2.13747

0.001108 5.66% 0.003199 1.4 0.17 ### ### 1.648100.027972 -18.98% 0.036028 1.6 0.2 ### ### 1.22094

0.012792 -6.03% 0.003634 1.8 0.22 ### ### 0.86903

Deviation ^2 - TCS

Deviation- Sensex

Deviation ^2 - Sensex

Ref NormalDist

TCS(X)

NormalDist -TCS(Y)

Sensex(X)

NormalDist -Sensex(Y)



0.016328 9.52% 0.009054 2.0 0.25 ### ### 0.59430

0.006194 -11.99% 0.014375 2.2 0.27 ### ### 0.39048

0.000053 -1.38% 0.000191 2.4 0.29 ### ### 0.24650

0.038120 -13.99% 0.019574 2.6 0.32 ### ### 0.14951

0.003875 3.78% 0.001433 2.8 0.34 ### ### 0.08713

0.000857 -3.38% 0.001142 3.0 0.36 ### ### 0.04878

0.000456 13.74% 0.018888 3.2 0.39 ### ### 0.02624

0.000195 11.89% 0.014138 3.4 0.41 ### ### 0.01356

0.007546 -2.48% 0.000615 3.6 0.44 ### ### 0.00674

0.000019 5.16% 0.002663 3.8 0.46 ### ### 0.00321

0.002719 -0.26% 0.000007 4.0 0.48 ### ### 0.00147

0.002632 3.86% 0.001489 4.2 0.51 ### ### 0.00065

0.000476 5.14% 0.002638 4.4 0.53 ### ### 0.00027

0.000886 0.05% 0.000000 4.6 0.56 ### ### 0.00011

0.005884 -9.17% 0.008404 4.8 0.58 ### ### 0.00004

5.0



-1 -1

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00



1 1

TCSSensex

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Stock Analysis Example

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