LEARN HOW TO INVEST WITH CONVICTION THIS SUMMER
Quarterly Stock GuideSummer 2015
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Stock GuideSummer 2015
The Nasdaq continued its steady uptrend into all-time record highs during the second quarter, currently up over 8% year-to-date. Most leading stocks continue to act well and are hitting new highs along with the general market. With the market in a confirmed uptrend, investors should be looking for breakouts in companies with strong fundamentals and technicals.
This Summer Stock Guide focuses on the process of building conviction in a stock by understanding the fundamental story. The fundamental story identifies the real market leadership, rather than those stocks that follow the general upward movement of the market. Building conviction could mean the difference between holding onto a stock for its longer run and selling too early.
The screens in this Summer Stock Guide were created to locate stocks that have rare growth potential, supported by revenue and earnings growth. These stocks will also need to possess a combination of technical and fundamental strength, a key characteristic of potential model book stocks.
Best returns,
Your MarketSmith Team
Don’t miss our webinar series Stay in Step With the Market for insight into current market activity at marketsmith.com/webinar
Stock Guide Chart Legend
1. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate Over 20% Per Year
2. Company Name
3. Industry Group Classification
4. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Short Interest Value and Percent Change
b. Options Availability and Exchange
c. 50-Day Ratio of Daily Up Volume to Daily Down Volume
d. Ex-Dividend Date
e. Current Yield
5. Ticker or Trading Symbol
6. Top 5 Stocks in Group
7. Primary Exchange
8. Industry Group Relative Strength Rating
9. Common Shares Outstanding (in Millions)
10. Web Address
11. Active stock (NASDAQ only)
12. Floating Supply (in Millions)
13. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate
b. Best RS Line & Rating Factor
c. Earnings Per Share Rank (EPS Rank)
d. Current Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio
e. High and Low Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratios
14. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Debt Percentage
b. New CEO in Last 2 Years
c. Timeliness Rating
d. Accumulation/Distribution Rating
e. SMR Rating
15. Average Daily Volume Over Last 50 Trading Days
16. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Stock Price Relative to Book Value
b. Inventory Turnover
c. Research and Development % of Total Sales
d. Return on Equity Percentage
e. Cash Flow Per Share From Operations
17. Convertible Issues
18. Warrants Outstanding
19. Closing Price
20. % Off High
21. Datablock Containing the Following Information
a. Mutual Fund Sponsorship
b. Bank Sponsorship
c. Management Ownership
d. Alpha
e. Beta
22. Composite Rating
23. Arithmetic Price Scale
24. Key High and Low Price Points
25. 50-Day Moving Average Price Line
26. 200-Day Moving Average Price Line
27. Relative Strength Rating
28. Relative Strength Compared to S&P 500
29. Article in Major Publication
30. *Indicates 2nd Highest Weekly Volume in Last 12 Months
31. *Indicates Highest Weekly Volume in Last Year or Volume 100% or More Above ADV
32. Volume Scale
33. Earnings % Change
34. Qtrly EPS Compared to EPS Same Qtr Last Year (<> denotes pretax, non-recurring items included)
35. Insider Buying/Selling
36. Qtrly Sales Compared to Sales Same Qtr Last Year
37. 50-Day Average Daily Volume
38. High and Low P/E Ratio for the Quarter
39. Dividend Change
40. Security Announcement
41. Cash Dividend for the Quarter
42. *Indicates Earnings Expected to Report Within 4 Weeks
43. *Indicates Earnings Were Reported in Last 2 Weeks
44. Volume Peaks (in Hundreds)
45. Stock Dividend or Split
46. Daily High, Low, and Closing Prices
47. Line Indicates Beginning of Calendar Quarter
48. Indicator for Canadian Dollars
49. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Fiscal Year End
b. Annual Operating Earnings (<> denotes pretax, non-recurring items included)
c. Calendar Year High/Low Prices
d. Earnings Per Share Estimates
e. EPS Estimates % Change
f. Estimate Revision
50. Business Summary
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
17 31AUG
14 28SEP
11 25OCT 9 23
NOV 6 20
DEC 4 18
QTR 1
JAN 10 1 15 29
FEB12 26
MAR12 26
QTR 2
APR 9 23
MAY 7 21
JUN 4 18
QTR 3
JUL 2
XYZ CORP (XYZ) NASDAQ*BLDG-A/C & HEATING PRDS aaon.com
17.1 SHRS / 12.2 FLT / AVG VOL 85,500 $24.13(OH ) -4%
MANUFACTURES HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITION EQUIP- MENT FOR THE INDUSTRIAL/CONSTRUCTION/COMMERCIAL MARKETS.
5/10 TO REPURCHASE 5% OF COMMON STOCK OUTSTANDING.
SHORT INT 24.3 DAYS -3%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.0
CBOE
EX-DIV 6/ 8YIELD 1.5%
GROWTH RATE +31%EARNINGS STAB 13EPS RANK 63PE 16 ( 1.0XS&P)5 YR PE 9- 31
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS B
7/10
ACC/DIST DSMR RATING B
3.50 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 7.5XR&D 13.6%RET ON EQUITY 26%CASH FLOW $2
FUNDS 40%BANKS 8%MGMT 29%ALPHA 0.03BETA 0.98
COMPOSITE RATINGIPO 7/7/07 $ 5.00 (C) (W) 82
EPS DUE 8/10
PRICESCALE
GROUP REL STR 82 RS EPSSmithAO AOS 81 95Watsco WSO 76 82Lennox LII 75 85
EARNINGS HI LO(DEC)$ $04 0.39 14 9
05 0.60 13 906 0.90 19 1107 1.22 23 1608 1.60 23 1209 1.62 22 1410 1.38 EST -15%11 1.62 EST +17%
«
QUARTER ENDED JUN 30, 09 0.43 VS 0.43 0% 68.6 VS 74.8 -8%$ 0.18 13X -- 9X
QUARTER ENDED SEP 30, 09 0.45 VS 0.47 -4% 58.5 VS 79.3 -26% N/A 13X -- 11X
QUARTER ENDED DEC 31, 09 0.36 VS 0.35 +3% 54.2 VS 60.2 -10%$ 0.18 12X -- 11X
QUARTER ENDED MAR 31, 10 0.30 VS 0.39 -23% 49.3 VS 64.0 -23% N/A 14X -- 12X
16
18
20
22
24
400 600 1000
VOLUME(00)
22.32
18.00
20.63
18.49 18.64
22.00
20.72
25.11
21.50
22.41
17704 5376
84
R S LINEVS SP500
CANADIANQTR 4
FORBES06/04/10DIV
INCPSO
2/1
* *
* *
ACTIVE
1 2 3 5 6 8 119 10 13 1514 16 17 18 19 20
21
4 7 12
23
24
25
26
27
28293031
32
33
35 3439 363840 3741
44
42
43
46
47
48
49
50
22
45
Table of ContentsStock Guide Legend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Market Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Building Conviction with Steve Birch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Summer 2015 Screens*
Annual Earnings/Sales Growth 9
Qorvo Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .QRVO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Skechers U S A Inc Cl A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SKX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Mobileye N.V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .MBLY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Blackstone Group LP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .BX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Aspen Technology Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AZPN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Meritage Homes Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .MTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Quarterly Earnings/Sales 13
Cyberark Software Ltd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CYBR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Intrexon Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .XON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Mellanox Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .MLNX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Infinera Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . INFN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Gray Television . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .GTN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Paycom Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAYC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Dynamic/Stable Earnings 17
Ambarella Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AMBA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Arista Networks Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ANET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Palo Alto Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PANW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Facebook Inc Cl A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Alexion Pharmaceuticals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ALXN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Autohome Inc Cl A Ads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ATHM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 26, 2015.
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
4 Market Charts
S & P 500 INDEXCLOSE 2101.49
1991.39
2019.26
2093.55
2119.592125.92
2134.72
1904.78
1820.66
1972.561980.90
2039.69
2067.93 2072.14
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
1830
1880
1930
1980
2030
2080
2130
2180
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
300 M
600 M
950 M
1.5 B
2612291511732062062392612281431173195228251127
JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 2015DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJUL
NASDAQ COMPOSITECLOSE 5080.50
4485.93
4610.57
4810.86 4814.95
5042.14
5119.83
4321.89
4116.60
4547.31 4563.10
4825.93
4888.17
4974.61
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
4150
4250
4350
4450
4550
4650
4750
4850
4950
5050
5150
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
750 M
1.1 B
1.7 B
2.5 B
2612291511732062062392612281431173195228251127
JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 2015DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJUL
5
To learn more about building conviction, we interviewed Steven Birch, president of William O’Neil + Company and a portfolio manager for the O’Neil Companies. Birch joined William O’Neil + Co., Inc. in 1995 as a data research analyst and quickly became one of the company’s top-performing portfolio managers. Later he became a national speaker, joining William J. O’Neil at investing workshops across the country. Since his appointment as president in 2009, Birch has personally driven the company’s product development with his investing expertise and innovative ideas. Here’s his take on building conviction:
Why is the fundamental story so important?The fundamental story is the only way to build your conviction in a company. It helps you understand the reason for the earnings and sales growth, which is the key to investing. It’s not just the earnings and sales numbers on the chart, but the story behind the numbers. The underlying fundamentals show you the likelihood of the continuation of the earnings and sales growth. You’re going to evaluate how quickly the business is growing along with their margins and the quality of the management team. You need to determine if management has the capability to grow the business over the next three to five years and the potential upside of the product/service.
What factors help you determine if a company has model-book stock potential?A stock has to have a combination of technical and fundamental strength. For example, four quarters of top line (revenue) growth is very hard to achieve. You need to try and understand why the market seems so excited about the business. Very few stocks have multi-year advances, so you need to consider where management intends to take the company in the future and how it is going to achieve this goal.
There are three necessary conditions to a high quality stock: fundamentals, technicals, and the general market. All of these factors influence my conviction. You’re looking for a company with strong fundamental operating momentum, an identifiable base with a strong breakout, and an uptrending market. Typically, most investors ignore the general market, which is the most important determinant of current stock prices. In a great market, you’ll make a lot of money in a short period of time provided you’re concentrated in the best merchandise.
Building Conviction with Steve Birch
MarketSmith Education Tips
Summer 2015 marketsmith.com
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
How do you remain patient and wait for the stock’s move to develop?The art is distinguishing when the stock is acting normal and to give it room and when it is acting out of character and should be sold/reduced. The price is paramount and you need to respect what the price is doing. If the price drifts lower and falls 8% below the buypoint, then that’s an automatic sell signal. You can’t fall in the love with the fundamental story and become stubborn. You need to be flexible and, in the end, you have to protect your assets. If the stock turns around, then you get back into it. Typically, I’ll try and wait at least 3 or 4 weeks from my original purchase before reevaluating. It depends on my level of conviction and my understanding of the fundamentals. You should be constantly evaluating, “Why did I buy this? Why do I still own this?”
What percent of your account are you hoping to establish in a stock?Normally, I start with 10 stocks. I’m always focusing on the lead horses, so at the end of a run, I may end up with two or three highly concentrated positions. However, I’m not buying them all at once. First, I have to have low cost basis stock. Secondly, I am adding to these positions from secondary buypoints, like tight areas or subsequent bases. Lastly, I’m always monitoring my positions for sell signals should they start to lag versus the general market.
You start with 10 stocks because you should acknowledge that you may have your money on the wrong horse and spreading your initial money around mitigates some of that risk. Now that you’ve done the work, you need to be patient and flexible. You want the absolute best, but you can trade yourself out of position.
What are some indicators that a stock’s move may be coming to an end?Event disconnect is an obvious candidate, which typically occurs on earnings releases. Essentially, earnings are expected to be at one figure, but are actually at a lower level. The company disappoints investors and the stock gaps down. A more subtle sign is when the stock is no longer participating in the general market rally. There doesn’t appear to be as much interest in the name and the RS line starts to lag. If you combine that with a break of the 50 day moving average line and living below the 50 day moving average line for too long, then there has been a subtle change of character. While this doesn’t mean that the stock has ultimately topped, something new needs to come out to reinvigorate investors’ interests in the company.
MarketSmith Education Tips6
Summer 2015 marketsmith.com
7MarketSmith Education Tips
The selling side is very technical. Your cost basis will tend to influence your decisions. If you have a core position with a low cost basis, then you can afford to be patient and let the stock develop. If you don’t have a profit cushion, then you need to protect your equity.
What’s a good screen to help find potential big winners?Recently, I have been focusing on companies with high three-year earnings and sales growth rates along with lower earnings stability rankings (<30). The Growth 250 is a good idea list, and now you should narrow it down to stocks that you’re comfortable with, like Retail, while potentially ignoring others. I look at fundamentals more than most and we come up with 1000s of stock ideas using screens. It’s about forming a process for yourself to find the merchandise you want to recruit for your portfolio. I’ll focus on a specific industry that I know and disregard the distractions. Don’t feel bad about missing out on a stock that you knew nothing about. You don’t have to be an expert, but you just need to know enough to understand the underlying fundamentals. You want a routine that is consistent and repeatable and you should always be on the prowl for a great stock; it could turn out to be a future model book stock.
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
MarketSmith Education Tips8
9
Visit marketsmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 26, 2015. This screen can also be found in the community section of marketsmith.com.
Annual Earnings/Sales Growth
Leading stocks should have both strong earnings and revenue growth.
These candidates are growing their earnings organically, as
opposed to through cost cutting methods, like layoffs. This
screen identifies stocks that have significant top and bottom
line growth over the last three years. Stocks will be trading
near 52-week highs.
EPS % Company Name (Symbol) Industry Group Growth 3 year Page
Qorvo Inc (QRVO) Elec-Semiconductor Mfg 362 10
Skechers U S A Inc Cl A (SKX) Apparel-Shoes & Rel Mfg 215 10
Mobileye N.V. (MBLY) Auto/Truck-Original Eqp 194 11
Blackstone Group LP (BX) Finance-Investment Mgmt 192 11
Aspen Technology Inc (AZPN) Computer Sftwr-Enterprse 159 12
Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) Bldg-Resident/Comml 132 12
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
10
*QORVO INC(QRVO) NASDAQ 148.5 SHRS / 145.5 FLT / AVG VOL2.94MIL $80.41(OH -8%)ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR MFG qorvo.comMANUFACTURES RF INTEGRATED CIRCUITS USED IN MOBILE DEVICES, BASE STATIONS, WIRELESS NETWORKS AND METERING DEVICES.
7/15 EXPECTS Q2 FY16 EARNINGS OF $1.05 TO $1.15 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES OF ABOUT $690 MIL TO $710 MIL.
SHORT INT .9 DAYS +5%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +65%EARNINGS STAB 99EPS RANK 98PE 11 (0.7XS&P)5 YR PE 13 - 498
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST ESMR RATING A
11.88 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 8.0XR&D 17.2%RET ON EQUITY 13%CASH FLOW N/A
FUNDS 48%BANKS 2%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.08BETA 1.74
51.92
78.05
85.63 86.75
36.60
63.1765.44
77.60
29
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O
1/4
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PRICE SCALE
51COMPOSITE RATING(C)09$ -0.03 $ 23 210 0.48 31 1411 0.61 33 1912 0.18 22 1313 0.18 24 1714 1.79 68 1815 4.6916 4.52EST -4% ↓
EARNINGS (MAR) HI LOSkywks SWKS 97 99Freescale FSL 96 76MACOM MTSI 95 93IXYS IXYS 94 79TowerSemi TSEM 91 73
GROUP REL STR 12 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
1.21 VS 0.48 +152%362.7 VS 310.7 +17%N/A 24X-- 17X
1.46 VS 0.51 +186%397.1 VS 288.5 +38%N/A 22X-- 14X
1.11 VS 0.48 +131%634.9 VS 256.0 +148%N/A 23X-- 15X
1.09 VS 0.97 +12%673.6 VS 316.3 +113%N/A 19X-- 14X
*EPS DUE 10/29 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
1M
3M
8.5M
SKECHERS U S A INC CL A(SKX) NYSE 42.7 SHRS / 32.9 FLT / AVG VOL1.17MIL $111.49(OH -2%)APPAREL-SHOES & REL MFG skechers.comMARKETS MEN'S, WOMEN'S AND CHILDREN'S CASUAL, DRESS AND ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR VIA DEPARTMENT/SPECIALTY STORES
2/15 EXPECTS Q1 2015 EARNINGS OF $0.95 TO $1.05 PER SHARE ON REVENUES OF $690 MIL TO $710 MIL.
SHORT INT 2.1 DAYS -10%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 75PE 32 (2.1XS&P)5 YR PE 6 - 121
DEBT 1%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
6.80 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 5.9XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 14%CASH FLOW $3.83
FUNDS 52%BANKS 0%MGMT 14%ALPHA 0.35BETA 1.1
64.6962.34
70.25
47.76
53.89
64.8999
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING09$ 1.16 $ 30 510 2.78 44 1911 -1.49∆ 23 1112 0.19 22 1113 1.19∆ 34 1714 2.84 64 2615 4.97EST +75% ↓16 6.42EST +29% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOSteveMaden SHOO 90 44Rocky RCKY 89 88Crocs CROX 87 18Nike B NKE 86 89Weyco WEYS 68 84
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
1.08 VS 0.53∆ +104%674.3 VS 515.8 +31%N/A 31X-- 23X
0.48 VS 0.28∆ +71%569.7 VS 450.7 +26%N/A 26X-- 19X
1.10 VS 0.61 +80%768.0 VS 546.5 +41%N/A 26X-- 21X
1.55 VS 0.68 +128%800.5 VS 587.1 +36%N/A 34X-- 22X
*EPS DUE 10/22 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
400K
900K
2M
Annual Earnings/Sales Growth
Summer 2015 marketsmith.com
11
MOBILEYE N.V.(MBLY) NYSE 215.2 SHRS / 92.5 FLT / AVG VOL3.17MIL $53.70(OH -10%)AUTO/TRUCK-ORIGINAL EQP mobileye.comISRAEL-BASED DEVELOPER OF SOFTWARE AND RELATED TECHNOLOGIES FOR CAMERA-BASED ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS.SHORT INT 4.7 DAYS -11%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.1EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 37PE 187 (11.7XS&P)5 YR PE 145 - 262
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
29.61 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 9.9XR&D 25.7%RET ON EQUITY 17%CASH FLOW $0.23
FUNDS 36%BANKS 0%MGMT 16%ALPHA 0.15BETA 1.04
58.6160.28
52.80
48.78
42.51
39.25
32.41
40.01
44.64
96
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
SOPSO
20
30
40
50
60
70
PRICE SCALE
94COMPOSITE RATING$25.00IPO 8/01/1409$1011 -0.06 $12 -0.0113 0.1614 0.22 60 3115 0.45EST+105% ↑16 0.75EST +67% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOGentherm THRM 93 93DelphiAuto DLPH 89 45LearCorp LEA 85 66Metaldyne MPG 82 72Wabco WBC 80 79
GROUP REL STR 37 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.05 VS 0.04 +25%34.7 VS 20.4 +70%N/A 255X-- 148X
0.06 VS 0.08 -25%39.7 VS 31.4 +26%N/A 262X-- 164X
0.08 VS 0.06 +33%45.6 VS 35.7 +28%N/A 205X-- 145X
0.10 VS 0.05 +100%52.8 VS 33.7 +57%N/A 232X-- 182X
*EPS DUE 11/20 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
600K
2M
7.5M
*BLACKSTONE GROUP LP(BX ) NYSE 548.3 SHRS / 542.8 FLT / AVG VOL4.20MIL $41.50(OH -6%)FINANCE-INVESTMENT MGMT blackstone.comPROVIDES GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
8/15 TO ACQUIRE A MAJORITY STAKE IN STEARNS HOLDINGS, A NATIONAL MORTGAGE LENDER.
SHORT INT 2.3 DAYS -6%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 0.5EX-DIV 7/23YIELD 8.8%
GROWTH RATE +154%EARNINGS STAB 49EPS RANK 44PE 13 (0.8XS&P)5 YR PE 10 - 125
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST ESMR RATING B
2.52 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 24%CASH FLOW $3.16
FUNDS 30%BANKS 1%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.01BETA 1.01
36.08
34.70
39.62
44.43
31.3932.12
26.56
32.13
37.28
40.51
39
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O25
30
35
40
45
PRICE SCALE
50COMPOSITE RATING(C)$31.00IPO 6/22/0709$ 0.32 $ 17 310 1.21 15 811 -0.35∆ 19 1012 0.41∆ 17 1113 1.98∆ 31 1514 2.58∆ 36 2615 3.57EST +38% ↑16 3.77EST +6% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LONoah Hlgs NOAH 97 88WisdmtrInv WETF 97 53DiamHill DHIL 95 96MmaCapMg MMAC 94 22SEIInvst SEIC 93 84
GROUP REL STR 51 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.41∆ VS 0.29∆ +41%1679 VS 1216 +38%$0.55 16X-- 12X
0.89∆ VS 1.04∆ -14%2020 VS 2709 -25%$0.44 13X-- 10X
1.00∆ VS 0.44∆ +127%2512 VS 1526 +65%$0.78 15X-- 12X
0.21∆ VS 0.85∆ -75%1225 VS 2257 -46%$0.89 16X-- 13X
*EPS DUE 10/16 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
1.2M
3M
7M
Annual Earnings/Sales Growth
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
12
*ASPEN TECHNOLOGY INC(AZPN) NASDAQ 85.4 SHRS / 84.5 FLT / AVG VOL714778 $46.12(OH -3%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE aspentech.comDEVELOPS ENGINEERING, PLANT OPERATIONS, AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS FOR THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES.
4/15 MARK P. SULLIVAN TO RESIGN AS CFO, EFFECTIVE SEPTEMBER 30, 2015.
SHORT INT 7.6 DAYS +2%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.5EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +138%EARNINGS STAB 38EPS RANK 66PE 25 (1.6XS&P)5 YR PE 25 - 266
DEBT 0%NEW CEO 10/13TIMELINESS CACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
37.99 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 17.5%RET ON EQUITY 742%CASH FLOW $1.59
FUNDS 59%BANKS 0%MGMT 1%ALPHA -0.01BETA 1.09
47.20
40.3739.16
37.42
40.33
45.11
40.83
31.57 32.06 31.63
35.90
57
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O25
30
35
40
45
50
PRICE SCALE
86COMPOSITE RATING09$ 0.57∆ $ 10 510 -1.01∆ 13 811 -0.45 18 1212 -0.06 27 1513 0.58 42 2614 1.05 48 3115 1.60EST +10% ↑16 1.76EST +10% ↑
EARNINGS (JUN) HI LOPaycm Sftw PAYC 98 99Ebix EBIX 98 78ManhAsc MANH 96 97DealerTrac TRAK 96 79Paylocity PCTY 96 52
GROUP REL STR 79 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.35 VS 0.19 +84%107.1 VS 87.6 +22%N/A 49X-- 35X
0.36 VS 0.27 +33%107.8 VS 98.8 +9%N/A 37X-- 26X
0.37 VS 0.28 +32%111.3 VS 103.6 +7%N/A 31X-- 25X
0.39 VS 0.31 +26%114.2 VS 101.5 +12%N/A 34X-- 27X
*EPS DUE 10/28 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
250K
750K
*MERITAGE HOMES CORP(MTH) NYSE 39.7 SHRS / 37.3 FLT / AVG VOL548482 $48.54(OH -2%)BLDG-RESIDENT/COMML meritagehomes.comBUILDS SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED HOMES FOR FIRST AND SECOND-TIME MOVE UP BUYERS IN SOUTHERN, WESTERN AND EASTERN REGIONS
5/15 TO OFFER $200 MIL OF SENIOR UNSECURED NOTES DUE 2025.
SHORT INT 9.9 DAYS +0%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +103%EARNINGS STAB 81EPS RANK 14PE 13 (0.8XS&P)5 YR PE 9 - 277
DEBT 82%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST DSMR RATING B
1.45 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 1.3XR&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 15%CASH FLOW $3.93
FUNDS 56%BANKS 0%MGMT 6%ALPHA 0.03BETA 1.13
43.2442.44
38.93
41.08
38.35
49.90
46.02
37.41
33.1132.40
31.69
41.41 41.74
68
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O30
35
40
45
50
PRICE SCALE
80COMPOSITE RATING09$ -4.99∆ $ 24 810 0.22∆ 25 1511 -0.65∆ 27 1312 1.21∆ 42 2313 3.25∆ 52 3614 3.46 50 3215 3.64EST +5% ↓16 4.27EST +17% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOWCI Comun WCIC 89 72NewHm NWHM 88 84LennarB LENB 86 97LGI Homes LGIH 86 89LennarA LEN 83 97
GROUP REL STR 94 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.79 VS 0.99 -20%556.8 VS 493.8 +13%N/A 12X-- 10X
1.19 VS 1.19 0%698.9 VS 536.2 +30%N/A 12X-- 9X
0.40 VS 0.62 -35%518.7 VS 408.4 +27%N/A 14X-- 9X
0.70 VS 0.85 -18%597.8 VS 505.6 +18%N/A 15X-- 13X
*EPS DUE 10/29 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
186K
450K
900K
Annual Earnings/Sales Growth
13
Visit marketsmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 26, 2015. This screen can also be found in the community section of marketsmith.com.
Quarterly Earnings/Sales
Quarterly earnings and sales provide insight into the company’s current fundamental situation.
This screen focuses on stocks that have significant earnings
and sales growth in the most recent quarter. In addition,
these stocks are showing technical strength. Potential
model book stocks always have a combination of strong
fundamentals and technicals.
EPS % Chg Company Name (Symbol) Industry Group Last Qtr Page
Cyberark Software Ltd (CYBR) Computer Sftwr-Security 1500 14
Intrexon Corporation (XON) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 525 14
Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) Elec-Semicondctor Fablss 445 15
Infinera Corp (INFN) Telecom-Fiber Optics 433 15
Gray Television (GTN) Media-Diversified 400 16
Paycom Software (PAYC) Computer Sftwr-Enterprse 300 16
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
14
*CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD(CYBR) NASDAQ 31.7 SHRS / 19.6 FLT / AVG VOL2.38MIL $65.78(OH -13%)COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY cyberark.comISRAELI PROVIDER OF NETWORK SECURITY SOFTWARE FOCUSED ON PROTECTING PRIVILEGED ACCOUNTS FOR COMMERCIAL ENTERPRISES.
8/15 EXPECTS 2015 NON-GAAP EARNINGS OF $0.62 TO $0.65 PER SHARE ON REVENUES OF $145 MIL TO $147 MIL.
SHORT INT 1.4 DAYS +19%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.6EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +38%EARNINGS STAB 21EPS RANK 99PE 67 (4.2XS&P)5 YR PE 82 - 144
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
10.26 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 14.0%RET ON EQUITY 16%CASH FLOW $0.54
FUNDS 16%BANKS 0%MGMT 38%ALPHA 0.33BETA 1.06
47.0143.49
70.48 69.00
26.66
36.0033.00
47.51
59.42
87
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
POPPOSOPSO
IPO$16.00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PRICE SCALE
92COMPOSITE RATING$16.00IPO 9/24/1409$1011 0.19 $12 0.2713 0.2814 0.49 47 2215 0.64EST +31% ↑16 0.80EST +25% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOImperva IMPV 99 29CheetahMb CMCM 98 82Digimrc DMRC 98 2PaloAltNts PANW 97 99VscoData VDSI 97 97
GROUP REL STR 67 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.19 VS 0.11 +73%28.0 VS 16.9 +66%N/A 133X-- 82X
0.21 VS 0.07 +200%36.3 VS 20.1 +81%N/A 139X-- 94X
0.16 VS 0.01 +150032.9 VS 17.4 +89%N/A 144X-- 84X
0.19 VS 0.08 +138%36.4 VS 21.3 +70%N/A 141X-- 93X
*EPS DUE 11/12 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
400K
1.5M
5.5M
INTREXON CORPORATION(XON) NYSE 115.3 SHRS / 46.1 FLT / AVG VOL1.17MIL $48.28(OH -6%)MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH dna.comDEVELOPS DNA GENE PROGRAMS USING ITS SUITE OF PROPRIETARY AND COMPLEMENTARY TECHNOLOGIES FOR A VARIETY OF END MARKETS
8/15 IN PACT WITH UNIT OF DOMINION RESOURCES TO COMMERCIALIZE BIOLOGICAL CONVERSION OF NATURAL GAS TO ISOBUTANOL.
SHORT INT 6.9 DAYS -24%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD 0.4%
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 77PE5 YR PE 1313 - 2662
DEBT 2%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST CSMR RATING D
12.75 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 5.6XR&D 82.0%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.59
FUNDS 12%BANKS 0%MGMT 60%ALPHA 0.41BETA 1.17
26.6228.78
40.49
50.98
45.96
17.3516.13
38.3337.30
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
PO
PPO
10
20
30
40
50
PRICE SCALE
81COMPOSITE RATING$16.00IPO 8/08/1309$1011 -0.88 $12 -0.8513 -0.41 31 1714 -0.83∆ 38 1315 -0.20EST ↓16 -0.43EST ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOHalozyme HALO 99 48AssemblyBi ASMB 99 44SorrentThe SRNE 99 42Retrophin RTRX 99 41Cempra CEMP 99 35
GROUP REL STR 90 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.53∆ VS 0.16 N/A21.2 VS 6.0 +251%N/A 2662X-- 2126X
0.18 VS -0.13#+238%31.1 VS 7.1 +335%N/A N/A
0.25 VS 0.04∆ +525%33.9 VS 7.9 +331%N/A N/A
-0.37 VS -0.53∆ N/A44.9 VS 11.8 +281%$0.16 N/A
*EPS DUE 11/13 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
250K
650K
1.7M
Quarterly Earnings/Sales
Summer 2015 marketsmith.com
15
MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES(MLNX) NASDAQ 45.9 SHRS / 38.6 FLT / AVG VOL546462 $48.34(OH -8%)ELEC-SEMICONDCTOR FABLSS mellanox.comISRAELI DESIGNER OF ADAPTER, GATEWAY AND SWITCH ICS FOR SERVERS, TELECOM INFRASTRUCTURE EQUIPMENT, AND STORAGE SYSTEMS
8/15 RCVD A CONTRACT FROM KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY TO PROVIDE END-TO-END EDR 100GB/S INFINIBAND SOLUTIONS.
SHORT INT 4.1 DAYS +5%OPTIONS ON AM/NYUP/DOWN 0.7EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +4%EARNINGS STAB 61EPS RANK 86PE 18 (1.1XS&P)5 YR PE 12 - 63
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST DSMR RATING B
2.56 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 11.5XR&D 45.0%RET ON EQUITY 8%CASH FLOW $1.74
FUNDS 31%BANKS 1%MGMT 7%ALPHA N/ABETA 1.02
44.40
46.9647.85
48.83 48.92
50.4451.23
33.33
39.21
40.86 41.00
42.91
44.28
37
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O30
35
40
45
50
55
PRICE SCALE
68COMPOSITE RATING$17.00IPO 2/08/0709$ 0.81 $ 19 610 0.99 27 1411 1.16 37 2312 3.60 120 3013 0.94 65 3214 1.17 46 3015 2.73EST+133% ↑16 2.79EST +2% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOAmbarella AMBA 99 99Vimicro VIMC 99 62Inphi IPHI 97 78SiliconMot SIMO 96 95AvgoTc AVGO 95 98
GROUP REL STR 55 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.28 VS 0.28 0%120.7 VS 104.1 +16%N/A 60X-- 37X
0.59 VS 0.21 +181%141.1 VS 105.6 +34%N/A 63X-- 52X
0.60 VS 0.11 +445%146.7 VS 99.0 +48%N/A 63X-- 38X
0.75 VS 0.15 +400%163.2 VS 102.8 +59%N/A 43X-- 28X
*EPS DUE 10/22 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
122K
450K
1.4M
INFINERA CORP(INFN) NASDAQ 129.6 SHRS / 124.4 FLT / AVG VOL1.81MIL $21.24(OH -7%)TELECOM-FIBER OPTICS infinera.comMANUFACTURES PHOTONIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS USED IN FIBER OPTIC NETWORKS FOR TELECOM, CABLE TV AND INTERNET PROVIDERS.
8/15 TO ACQUIRE TRANSMODE.
SHORT INT 7.2 DAYS +7%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 77PE 37 (2.3XS&P)5 YR PE 25 - 496
DEBT 24%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING B
5.79 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 4.9XR&D 20.0%RET ON EQUITY 11%CASH FLOW $0.64
FUNDS 42%BANKS 0%MGMT 3%ALPHA 0.34BETA 1.4
9.68
11.84
14.9815.74
18.04
20.93
8.329.15
13.28 13.00
17.58
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O5
10
15
20
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING(W)$13.00IPO 6/07/0709$ -0.48∆ $ 10 510 0.21 12 511 -0.29 11 512 -0.39 8 413 0.03 12 514 0.39 15 615 0.71EST +82% ↑16 0.95EST +34% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOAppliedOpt AAOI 93 28Ciena CIEN 91 50AlliFibOp AFOP 89 58Clearfield CLFD 80 36LumosNtwks LMOS 55 22
GROUP REL STR 97 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.11 VS 0.10 +10%173.6 VS 142.0 +22%N/A 88X-- 38X
0.13 VS -0.01#+1400186.3 VS 139.1 +34%N/A 66X-- 40X
0.16 VS 0.03 +433%186.9 VS 142.8 +31%N/A 62X-- 36X
0.18 VS 0.11 +64%207.4 VS 165.4 +25%N/A 54X-- 34X
*EPS DUE 10/22 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
500K
1.6M
5.5M
Quarterly Earnings/Sales
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
16
*GRAY TELEVISION INC(GTN) NYSE 66.1 SHRS / 64.1 FLT / AVG VOL720080 $15.82(OH -5%)MEDIA-DIVERSIFIED gray.tvOWNS AND OPERATES TELEVISION STATIONS IN 44 TELEVISION MARKETS BROADCASTING 140 PROGRAMMING STREAMS.
8/15 EXPECTS Q3 2015 REVENUES OF $142 MIL TO $145 MIL.
SHORT INT 2 DAYS +45%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +42%EARNINGS STAB 84EPS RANK 98PE 10 (0.7XS&P)5 YR PE 3 - 84
DEBT 572%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
3.64 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 25%CASH FLOW $1.82
FUNDS 35%BANKS 0%MGMT 3%ALPHA 0.08BETA 1.36
13.94
10.73
11.73
14.80
16.6716.67
7.16
9.17
13.18
15.02
46
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
PO
PPO
-O6
8
10
12
14
16
PRICE SCALE
72COMPOSITE RATING09$ -0.83∆ $ 3 010 0.16∆ 4 111 0.03∆ 2 112 0.42∆ 2 113 0.32∆ 15 214 0.82∆ 15 715 0.58EST -29% ↑16 1.60EST+176% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOStarz A STRZA 96 64Starz B STRZB 95 64Graham B GHC 91 49WrldWrstln WWE 90 67WaltDisney DIS 88 89
GROUP REL STR 52 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.24 VS 0.12 +100%131.7 VS 88.3 +49%N/A 47X-- 30X
0.53 VS 0.09∆ +489%177.9 VS 95.6 +86%N/A 37X-- 23X
0.10 VS 0.02∆ +400%133.3 VS 91.3 +46%N/A 30X-- 13X
0.17 VS 0.03∆ +467%143.5 VS 107.3 +34%N/A 19X-- 15X
*EPS DUE 11/5 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
158K
500K
1.4M
*PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC(PAYC) NYSE 58.4 SHRS / 23.3 FLT / AVG VOL652080 $35.75(OH -10%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE paycom.comPROVIDES CLOUD-BASED HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE THAT MANAGES EMPLOYMENT LIFE CYCLE FOR EMPLOYERS AND EMPLOYEES.
8/15 EXPECTS 2015 ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $44 MIL TO $46 MIL.
SHORT INT 3.8 DAYS +41%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.8EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +79%EARNINGS STAB 55EPS RANK 99PE 113 (7.2XS&P)5 YR PE 158 - 390
DEBT 35%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST DSMR RATING A
30.08 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.390.5XR&D 2.9%RET ON EQUITY 24%CASH FLOW $0.31
FUNDS 14%BANKS 0%MGMT 29%ALPHA 0.34BETA 1.13
18.3419.24
29.42
35.1235.86
39.75
12.28
14.32
23.4822.58
29.14 29.36
33.8533.85
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-OSO
PSO
+O-O-OSOPSO+O
10
20
30
40
PRICE SCALE
97COMPOSITE RATING$15.00IPO 4/15/1409$ -0.01 $10 -0.0111 0.0312 0.0813 0.0514 0.18 29 1215 0.36EST+100% ↑16 0.47EST +31% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOEbix EBIX 98 78ManhAsc MANH 96 97DealerTrac TRAK 96 79Paylocity PCTY 96 52Shopify SHOP 96 18
GROUP REL STR 79 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.05 VS 0.02 +150%36.6 VS 25.8 +42%N/A 368X-- 178X
0.06 VS -0.02#+400%44.0 VS 30.3 +45%N/A 294X-- 176X
0.12 VS 0.03 +300%55.2 VS 37.0 +49%N/A 303X-- 158X
0.10 VS 0.04 +150%49.0 VS 33.3 +47%N/A 189X-- 114X
*EPS DUE 11/4 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
30K
120K
500K
Quarterly Earnings/Sales
17
Visit marketsmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 26, 2015. This screen can also be found in the community section of marketsmith.com.
Dynamic/Stable Earnings
Large annual EPS increases are a given for potential model book stocks.
Ideally, they will have consistent increases as well. This
screen uses an Earnings Stability ranking to determine the
volatility of earnings over the past few years. Companies
with stable earnings are more likely to continue their
growth into the future than those with volatile earnings.
RS 3 Company Name (Symbol) Industry Group Month Rating Page
Ambarella Inc (AMBA) Elec-Semicondctor Fablss 97 18
Arista Networks Inc (ANET) Computer-Networking 97 18
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Computer Sftwr-Security 93 19
Facebook Inc Cl A (FB) Internet-Content 88 19
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 88 20
Autohome Inc Cl A Ads (ATHM) Internet-Content 84 20
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
18
*AMBARELLA INC(AMBA) NASDAQ 31.3 SHRS / 27.6 FLT / AVG VOL3.40MIL $101.57(OH -20%)ELEC-SEMICONDCTOR FABLSS ambarella.comDESIGNS SYSTEM-ON-A-CHIP SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESSING SOLUTIONS USED IN CAMERAS FOR SECURITY/SURVEILLANCE MARKETS.
7/15 ACQUIRED VISLAB, A VISION AND INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS LABORATORY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF PARMA, FOR $30 MIL IN CASH.
SHORT INT 1.9 DAYS +0%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.8EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +42%EARNINGS STAB 19EPS RANK 99PE 30 (1.9XS&P)5 YR PE 8 - 46
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
11.84 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 13.6XR&D 26.6%RET ON EQUITY 33%CASH FLOW $2.15
FUNDS 24%BANKS 0%MGMT 11%ALPHA 0.45BETA 1.5
33.81
46.78
58.0063.20
77.39
27.4033.71
44.4548.50
68.30
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O0
20
40
60
80
100
120
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$6.00IPO 10/10/1209$ -0.11 $10 0.5011 0.5212 0.50 11 513 0.84 34 914 1.10 58 2115 2.0016 3.04EST +52% ↓
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LOVimicro VIMC 99 62Inphi IPHI 97 78SiliconMot SIMO 96 95AvgoTc AVGO 95 98IntegSilic ISSI 95 28
GROUP REL STR 55 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.68 VS 0.37 +84%65.7 VS 46.0 +43%N/A 37X-- 24X
0.68 VS 0.26 +162%64.7 VS 40.0 +62%N/A 46X-- 28X
0.71 VS 0.25 +184%71.0 VS 40.9 +74%N/A 40X-- 30X
0.88 VS 0.37 +138%84.2 VS 47.0 +79%N/A 53X-- 36X
*EPS DUE 12/4 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,14 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,15 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,15 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
600K
2M
6.5M
*ARISTA NETWORKS INC(ANET) NYSE 66.5 SHRS / 32.6 FLT / AVG VOL728706 $82.24(OH -13%)COMPUTER-NETWORKING arista.comPROVIDES CLOUD NETWORKING SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE FOR INTERNET AND CLOUD SERVICE PROVIDERS, AND NEXT-GEN DATA CENTERS.
5/15 NAMED ITA BRENNAN CFO, EFFECTIVE MAY 18, 2015, REPLACING INTERIM CFO ANDREAS BECHTOLSHEIM WHO REMAINS CHRMN.
SHORT INT 6.8 DAYS -4%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.6EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +64%EARNINGS STAB 29EPS RANK 99PE 37 (2.3XS&P)5 YR PE 43 - 87
DEBT 8%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST ESMR RATING A
8.61 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 7.9XR&D 25.5%RET ON EQUITY 33%CASH FLOW $1.77
FUNDS 22%BANKS 0%MGMT 35%ALPHA -0.02BETA 1
80.53
93.94 94.84
89.89
74.00 74.52
69.46
62.51
70.30
59.16 60.16
56.11
63.16
71
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
PRICE SCALE
91COMPOSITE RATING$43.00IPO 6/06/1409$1011 0.53 $12 0.3313 0.8214 1.55 94 5515 2.16EST +39% ↑16 2.49EST +15% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOSilverSpri SSNI 95 59MRV Coms MRVC 91 25Radware RDWR 84 90JuniperNtk JNPR 84 55IXIA XXIA 83 85
GROUP REL STR 70 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.40 VS 0.22 +82%155.5 VS 101.6 +53%N/A 87X-- 62X
0.53 VS 0.27 +96%173.5 VS 114.8 +51%N/A 83X-- 47X
0.50 VS 0.25 +100%179.1 VS 117.2 +53%N/A 53X-- 43X
0.54 VS 0.35 +54%195.6 VS 138.0 +42%N/A 50X-- 36X
*EPS DUE 11/6 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
102K
300K
850K
Dynamic/Stable Earnings
Summer 2015 marketsmith.com
19
*PALO ALTO NETWORKS(PANW) NYSE 83.7 SHRS / 69.4 FLT / AVG VOL1.39MIL $175.26(OH -5%)COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY paloaltonetworks.comPROVIDES NETWORK SECURITY INFRASTRUCTURE PRODUCTS FOR ENTERPRISES, SERVICE PROVIDERS AND GOVERNMENT ENTITIES.
5/15 ACQUIRED CIRROSECURE, A SILICON VALLEY-BASED CO.
SHORT INT 2.7 DAYS -2%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +67%EARNINGS STAB 15EPS RANK 99PE 238 (15.0XS&P)5 YR PE 168 - 726
DEBT 100%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST DSMR RATING B
29.10 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 17.5%RET ON EQUITY 9%CASH FLOW $0.69
FUNDS 40%BANKS 1%MGMT 8%ALPHA 0.26BETA 1.07
102.45
149.35 150.44
158.24
73.12
87.83
134.07
95
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O60
80
100
120
140
160
180
PRICE SCALE
97COMPOSITE RATING$42.00IPO 7/20/1209$ -0.28 $10 -0.3111 -0.1912 0.22 72 4713 0.24 62 3914 0.43 128 5415 0.83EST +93% ↑16 1.61EST +94% ↓
EARNINGS (JUL) HI LOImperva IMPV 99 29CybarkSftw CYBR 98 99CheetahMb CMCM 98 82Digimrc DMRC 98 2VscoData VDSI 97 97
GROUP REL STR 67 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.11 VS 0.07 +57%178.2 VS 112.4 +59%N/A 238X-- 180X
0.15 VS 0.08 +87%192.4 VS 128.2 +50%N/A 271X-- 214X
0.19 VS 0.10 +90%217.7 VS 141.1 +54%N/A 280X-- 235X
0.23 VS 0.11 +109%234.2 VS 150.7 +55%N/A 311X-- 239X
EPS DUE 9/9 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,14 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,14 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,15 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
500K
1.3M
3.5M
*FACEBOOK INC CL A(FB ) NASDAQ 2,259.7 SHRS / 2,169.3 FLT / AVG VOL24.69MIL $88.01(OH -1%)INTERNET-CONTENT facebook.comPROVIDES A SOCIAL NETWORKING PLATFORM ENABLING MEMBERS TO STAY CONNECTED WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY VIA FACEBOOK.COM.
2/15 ACQUIRED 21-BUILDING, 56-ACRE INDUSTRIAL PARK FROM PROLOGIS.
SHORT INT .9 DAYS -14%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.1EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +56%EARNINGS STAB 19EPS RANK 98PE 46 (2.9XS&P)5 YR PE 34 - 91
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
6.81 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 21.4%RET ON EQUITY 18%CASH FLOW $2.03
FUNDS 35%BANKS 1%MGMT 4%ALPHA 0.08BETA 1.11
76.74
79.7181.16 82.17
86.07 85.59
62.21
73.07
70.3272.51 73.54 73.45
76.79
89
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O
FORTUNE 6/3/15
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O
BARRONS 10/31/14
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O50
60
70
80
90
100
PRICE SCALE
97COMPOSITE RATING(W)(C)$38.00IPO 5/18/1209$ 0.11 $10 0.2811 0.5012 0.53 45 1713 0.91 58 2214 1.76 82 5115 2.07EST +18% ↑16 2.75EST +33% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOYoukuA YOKU 97 8Sina SINA 96 6Momo A MOMO 92 52Autobytl ABTL 91 92Autohome A ATHM 90 99
GROUP REL STR 78 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.43 VS 0.27 +59%3203 VS 2016 +59%N/A 62X-- 51X
0.54 VS 0.32 +69%3851 VS 2585 +49%N/A 59X-- 47X
0.42 VS 0.35 +20%3544 VS 2502 +42%N/A 52X-- 42X
0.50 VS 0.43 +16%4042 VS 2910 +39%N/A 49X-- 42X
*EPS DUE 10/28 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
10M
25M
Dynamic/Stable Earnings
Summer 2015marketsmith.com
20
*ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS(ALXN) NASDAQ 226.2 SHRS / 221.6 FLT / AVG VOL2.35MIL $184.45(OH -9%)MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH alexion.comDEVELOPS THERAPEUTICS TO TREAT HEMATOLOGIC AND NEUROLOGIC DISEASES AND METABOLIC AND INFLAMMATORY DISORDERS.
7/15 RCVD JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF HEALTH, LABOUR/WELFARE APPROVAL FOR MKTG OF ASFOTASE ALFA, TREATS HYPOPHOSPHATASIA.
SHORT INT 2.5 DAYS +2%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +53%EARNINGS STAB 5EPS RANK 87PE 32 (2.0XS&P)5 YR PE 33 - 70
DEBT 4%NEW CEO 4/15TIMELINESS BACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
11.70 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 16.0XR&D 23.0%RET ON EQUITY 38%CASH FLOW $5.67
FUNDS 62%BANKS 1%MGMT 1%ALPHA 0.05BETA 1.46
173.70 173.25
197.64
203.30
189.72 188.35193.27
189.18
154.38157.30
155.01
185.80
176.01171.08
166.72
150.06
157.13
71
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O+O
-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
PRICE SCALE
96COMPOSITE RATING09$ 0.62 $ 24 1510 0.89 41 2211 1.38 72 4012 2.13 119 6913 3.08 133 8114 5.21 203 12615 4.84EST -7% ↑16 5.97EST +23% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOHalozyme HALO 99 48AssemblyBi ASMB 99 44SorrentThe SRNE 99 42Retrophin RTRX 99 41Cempra CEMP 99 35
GROUP REL STR 90 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
1.27 VS 0.83 +53%555.2 VS 400.4 +39%N/A 44X-- 36X
1.30 VS 0.87 +49%599.5 VS 441.9 +36%N/A 42X-- 36X
1.31 VS 1.53 -14%600.3 VS 566.6 +6%N/A 40X-- 33X
1.44 VS 1.12 +29%636.2 VS 512.5 +24%N/A 38X-- 30X
*EPS DUE 10/22 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
600K
1.6M
5M
*AUTOHOME INC CL A ADS(ATHM) NYSE 50.5 SHRS / 40.4 FLT / AVG VOL1.17MIL $49.74(OH -14%)INTERNET-CONTENT autohome.com.cnCHINESE PROVIDER OF INDEPENDENT AND INTERACTIVE CONTENT TO AUTOMOBILE BUYERS VIA AUTOHOME.COM.CN AND CHE168.COM.
6/15 XIANG LI RESIGNED AS PRES, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
SHORT INT 4.3 DAYS +8%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.5EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +78%EARNINGS STAB 7EPS RANK 99PE 21 (1.3XS&P)5 YR PE 34 - 68
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST ESMR RATING A
5.59 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 7.4%RET ON EQUITY 27%CASH FLOW $1.23
FUNDS 14%BANKS 0%MGMT 19%ALPHA -0.13BETA 0.98
57.93
53.56
41.99
47.47
56.59
31.80
38.54
34.14 34.50
44.02
12
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
POPPO
20
30
40
50
60
70
PRICE SCALE
59COMPOSITE RATING$17.00IPO 12/11/1309$ 0.05 $10 0.1211 0.2012 0.3213 0.76 37 2614 1.16 57 2815 1.50EST +29% ↓16 1.95EST +30% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOYoukuA YOKU 97 8Sina SINA 96 6Momo A MOMO 92 52Autobytl ABTL 91 92Tencent Ho TCEHY 90 98
GROUP REL STR 78 RS EPS
26122915117320620623926122814311731952282511JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 15DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.27 VS 0.22 +23%88.8 VS 54.1 +64%N/A 62X-- 38X
0.38 VS 0.21 +81%119.1 VS 63.8 +87%N/A 57X-- 34X
0.28 VS 0.20 +40%100.3 VS 55.0 +82%N/A 42X-- 34X
0.45 VS 0.31 +45%138.9 VS 81.7 +70%N/A 49X-- 36X
*EPS DUE 11/5 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,14 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,14 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,15 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,15
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
122K
450K
1.4M
Dynamic/Stable Earnings
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