Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016 Market Update · 2018-01-13 · are bound to profit from it!”...

Copyright © 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016 Market Update

Jeffrey A. Hirsch CEO: Hirsch Holdings | Editor-in-Chief: Stock Trader’s Almanac

Investment Committee Consultant: Probabilities Fund Mgmt. LLC

Webcast | Wednesday, February 10, 2016 | 12pm ET

Copyright © 2000-2016 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com 2

Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy, nor sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, product, service or investment. The opinions expressed herein do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate. All information and opinions expressed herein are current as of publication and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves substantial risk. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using this information. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in this presentation, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No one should make any investment decision based on this information without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the information herein and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. No warranty is or may be construed to be created or extended by informational, sales or promotional materials.


50 Years of Research


June 1980 Super Boom T-Shirt


Wall $treet Week April 1978


25 Years on The Street

Financial Media Contributor



Almanac Investing Philosophy

“Those who study market history are bound to profit from it!”

But…

“Use history as a guide, not gospel.”

— Sam Stovall

Almanac Research Process

50 Years Analyzing, Researching & Testing Every Stock Market Trend Imaginable Publish Findings On An Annual Basis Update Weekly & Monthly Construct Portfolios


Almanac Investing Process

Cycles, Seasonality & Recurring Patterns Current Trends & Economy Monetary and Government Policy Market Internals & Sentiment Fundamentals & Technical Analysis



Major Investment Cycles

War & Peace and the Markets Secular Bull & Bear Markets Decennial Cycle – 5th Year Best Gains, 12-1 4-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle

2-Term Presidents Different

Seasonal Cycles Best Six Months November-April Sectors & Commodities

Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Intraday January Indicators

2015 Forecast Recap

Expected usual 50% move from the midterm low to the pre-election year high to be below average in the 20-30% range as Fed rates hikes loom large.

Toward the later part of 2015 the economy is prone to slowing as Republicans and Democrats begin the next battle for the White House.

Expected a high most likely in the first half of 2015 around Dow 19000, S&P 2250 and NASDAQ 5000, slightly higher or lower than NASDAQ’s all-time high.

Then a move sideways to slightly higher throughout the last half of 2015 with an ultimate high near yearend 2015.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Made new highs on all the major averages, clearing 5000 on NASDAQ But DJIA and S&P 500 came up a bit short of our forecast at 18312 and 2131 respectively. Dow was up 19% from its 2014 midterm year low to its 2015 high – S&P 22%. The economy is arguably slowing and the battle for the White House raging. So all in all, not perfect, but not too shabby.



2015 1st Losing DJIA Pre-Election Year Since 1939

“If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods,

it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.”

— Edson Gould (Stock market analyst,

Findings & Forecasts, 1902-1987)


Bad Best Six Months Switching NOT Good


Market Expected The Fed To Cut Back To Zero?



BETTER WATCH OUT! Santa Claus Should Fail to Call

New Year Santa Rally Year1994 – 0.1% – 1.5% Flat1995 0.2% 34.1%1996 1.8% 20.3%1997 0.1% 31.0%1998 4.0% 26.7%1999 1.3% 19.5%2000 – 4.0% – 10.1% Bear2001 5.7% – 13.0%2002 1.8% – 23.4%2003 1.2% 26.4%2004 2.4% 9.0%2005 – 1.8% 3.0% Flat2006 0.4% 13.6%2007 0.0% 3.5%2008 – 2.5% – 38.5% Bear2009 7.4% 23.5%2010 1.4% 12.8%2011 1.1% – 0.003%2012 1.9% 13.4%2013 2.0% 29.6%2014 0.2% 11.4%2015 – 3.0% – 0.7% Flat

S&P 500 % ChangeLast 5 Days Of Year + 1st 2

January Indicator Trifecta



Presidential Term 8th Year | Why ‘16 Could Be Lousy

Dow Theory Sell Signal – Transports Not Confirm


The Pros & Cons of Forecasting

Pros Seasonal BSM Holding August Support? Election Year January Has Chance


Cons Fed Tightening 1st Down Pre-Election DJIA

Since 1939 8th Year of Term Descending Flag Busted Tepid Econ Dow Theory Sell Dec Low Violated No Santa NDR Bear China, Oil, Iran, BRICs, etc.

Current Sector ETFs


Small CapStock Portfolio


Mid Caps & Large Caps


Seasonal Support for a Tradable Crude Oil Bottom


2016 Outlook & Forecast


Four Horsemen of the Economy & Housing

Dow Jones Industrials Unemployment Rate Inflation Consumer Confidence Existing Home Sales Housing Starts New Home Sales NAHB-HMI


Unemployment


Inflation


Consumer Confidence


Existing Home Sales


Housing Starts


New Home Sales


NAHB-Housing Market Index


Pulse of the Market


Down January Down February


February Outlook

Weak Link in Best Six Months Up Little Better Than 50/50 Marginal Gains Large Caps Small Caps Better R2K 1.3% But No Jan Effect This Year Down January = Down February Except Last 3 Expiration Week Spotty Long-term Record, Week After Has A Clear Negative Bias Losses Past 26 Years Presidents’ Day Lone Holiday Weak Day Before And After Friday Before Exceptionally Treacherous Declines Persist 3 Trading Days After Since 1980


2016 Forecast “Less Than Sanguine”

2016 STA June 2, 2015, Page 6 Outlook Election years average DJIA 4.8%, 8th years, average -13.9%, down 5 of the last 6. So we see two scenarios for 2016:

If Fed is right and energy and commodities decline transitory & prices stabilize, expect average election year gains in mid-single digits.

If Fed is wrong and oil and commodities suffer further &junk bond scenario unravels we may begin a mild bear market.

Reassess end January Next bear market may begin in 2016 or already be underway and could take the

market 20-30% lower into 2017-2018 in the last cyclical, garden-variety bear market that finally puts an end to this secular bear that began in early 2000.

We do not expect much upside over the next few years in the market. After next bear market our Super Boom forecast kicks in. Raised the floor on our

initial forecast, but the 500+% move to Dow 38820 by 2025 is still on target.


Secular Markets & 500% Gains


Next Super Boom


5000

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30000

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40000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Copyright © 2011-2015 Jeffrey A. Hirsch & StockTradersAlmanac.com. All Rights Reserved.

15-Year Projection Dow Jones Industrials 2009-2025

Actual DJIA 2009-8/31/2015April 2011 ForecastJan 2014 Updated ForecastJul 2014 Updated ForecastMar 2015 Updated Forecast

DJIA Up 500% 2009-2025

Sideways Market Launching Pad While Inflation Rises

Inflation Levels Off

Super Boom Begins 2017-2018

US Withdrawsfrom Afghanistan

Leveraging the Probabilities

DIY – Stock Trader’s Almanac StockTradersAlmanac.com

Bi-weekly Research, Analysis, Signals & Alerts Stocks & ETFs: Includes Annual Stock Trader’s Almanac 20% OFF 1-Year | PROMO CODE: MTA16

Probabilities Fund Management Investment Committee Member Uses My Research Implementing Strategies Probabilities Fund Long/Short Equity Fund (PROTX) 2015: Tactical Long/Short US Equity & Sector Rotation New Probabilities Almanac Trader Stock Fund


ProbabilitiesFundManagement.com


Upcoming Events

February 16 Dallas Association for Technical Analysis (AfTA) February 21-23 NYC Traders Expo February 25 Boston AAII Special Interest Group March 3-5 World MoneyShow Orlando @ Disney March 8 Palm Beach Traders March 9 Southeast FLA IBD Meetup Available For:

Conference Keynotes Trading Workshops Investment Club Meetings Client Events



Thank You!

Jeffrey A. Hirsch is CEO of Hirsch Holdings, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor eNewsletter, and an Investment Committee Member at Probabilities Fund Management, LLC.

He is the author of Super Boom: Why the Dow Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It and The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles.

The Data-Rich & Data-Driven 50-Year Market Cycle Analysis of Stock Trader's Almanac is the only investment tool of its kind that helps traders and investors forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence. Please visit www.stocktradersalmanac.com.

DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy, nor sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, product, service or investment. The opinions expressed herein do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate. All information and opinions expressed herein are current as of publication and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves substantial risk. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using this information. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in this presentation, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance.

No one should make any investment decision based on this information without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the information herein and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. No warranty is or may be construed to be created or extended by informational, sales or promotional materials.

http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/

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Stock Trader’s Almanac 2016 Market Update · 2018-01-13 · are bound to profit from it!”...

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