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TRADING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT 

Stop Hunting withthe Big Players

Boris Schlossberg shows how to exploit the

‘stop hunters’ in the Forex markets using

a simple, mechanical method that only

requires a price chart and one indicator

players understand that stops are critical to their long-term sur-vival. Te notion o ‘waiting a loser out,’ as some equity investors

might do, simply does not exist or most Forex traders. rading without stops in the currency market means that sooner ratherthan later, the trader will ace orced liquidation in the orm o a margin call. With the exception o a ew long-term investors who may trade on a 100% cash basis, the overwhelming major-ity o Forex market participants are speculators. Tereore, they simply do not have the luxury o nursing a losing trade or toolong because their positions are highly leveraged.

Because o this unusual duality o the Forex market (high lever-age and almost universal use o stops), ‘stop hunting’ is a very common practice. Although it may have negative connotationsto some readers, stop hunting is a legitimate orm o trading. Itis nothing more than the art o ushing the losing players outo the market.

In Forex-speak, they are known as ‘weak longs’ or ‘weak shorts.’Much like a strong poker player who may take out less capableopponents by raising stakes and ‘buying the pot,’ large specu-lative players (like investment banks, hedge unds and money center banks) like to gun stops in the hope o generating urtherdirectional momentum. In act, the practice is so common inthe Forex markets that any trader unaware o these price dynam-ics will probably suer unnecessary losses.

Because the human mind naturally seeks order, most resting

F

oreign exchange is the most leveraged nancial market inthe world. In equities, standard margin is set at 2 to 1,

 which means that a trader must put up at least $50 cash tocontrol $100 worth o stock. In options, the leverage increasesto 10 to 1 with $10 controlling $100. In the utures markets,the leverage actor is increased to 20 to 1. For example, in aDow Jones utures e-mini contract, a trader only needs $2,500to control $50,000 worth o the index.

However, none o these markets approach the borrowing in-tensity o the Forex market where the deault leverage at mostdealers is set at 100 to 1 and can to as high as 200 to 1. Tisratio means that a mere $50 in trading capital can control up to$10,000 worth o a currency.

 Why is this important? First and oremost, the high degree o leverage can make Forex trading either extremely lucrative orextraordinarily dangerous, depending upon which side o thetrade you are on. In Forex, retail traders can literally doubletheir accounts overnight or lose it all in a matter o hours i they employ the ull margin at their disposal. Most proessional trad-ers limit their leverage to no more than 10 to 1 and never assumesuch enormous risk. Regardless o whether they trade on 200to 1 leverage or 2 to 1 leverage, almost everyone in the Forexmarkets uses stops.

Stops are Key

Precisely because the Forex market is so leveraged, most market

BORIS SCHLOSSBERG

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Figure 1 : EUR/US - Charts courtesy of Fxtrek by Intellicharts

stop orders are clustered around numbers ending in “00.” Forexample, i the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.3970 and rising

in value, most stops would reside within one or two points o the1.4000 price point rather than, say, 1.4017. Tis one act pro-vides valuable knowledge because it clearly indicates that mostretail traders should place their stops at less crowded and moreunusual locations.

However, the possibility o prot rom this unique dynamico the currency market is more interesting. Te act that theForex market is so stop driven oers the possibility or severalopportunistic setups or short-term traders. In her book, Day Trading the Currency Market  (2005), Kathy Lien describes onesuch setup that is based on ading the “00” level. Te approachdiscussed here is based on the opposite notion o joining theshort-term momentum.

Taking Advantage of ‘The Hunt’

‘Stop hunting with the big specs’ is an exceedingly simple setup,requiring nothing more than a price chart and one indicator.Here is the setup in a nutshell. On a one-hour chart, mark lines15 points on either side o the round number. For example,i the EUR/USD is approaching the 1.4000 gure, the tradermarks o 1.3985 and 1.4015 on the chart. Tis 30-point areais known as the ‘trade zone,’ much like the 20-yard line on theootball eld is known as the ‘red zone.’ Both monikers com-municate the same idea that the participants have a high prob-ability o scoring once they enter that area.

Te idea behind this setup is straightorward. Once price ap-

proaches the round-number level, speculators try to target the

stops clustered in that region. Because Forex is a decentralizedmarket, no one knows the exact number o stops located at

any particular “00” level, but traders hope that the size is largeenough to trigger urther liquidation o positions. Tis causes a

cascade o stop orders that will push price arther in that direc-tion than it would move under normal conditions.

In the case o a long setup, i price in the EUR/USD were climb-ing toward 1.4000, the trader would enter long the pair with

two units as soon as it crossed the threshold at 1.3985. Te stopon the trade would be 15 points lower than the entry because

this is strictly a momentum trade. I prices do not immediately 

ollow through, chances are the setup ailed.

Te prot target on the rst unit would be the amount o initial

risk or approximately 1.4000. Te trader would also move thestop on the second unit to breakeven to lock in prot. Tetarget on the second unit would be at two times initial risk or

1.4015, allowing the trader to exit on a momentum burst.

 Aside rom watching these key chart levels, there is only oneother rule that a trader must ollow in order to optimize the

probability o success. Because this setup is basically a derivativeo momentum trading, it should be traded only in the direction

o the larger trend. Tere are numerous ways to ascertain trenddirection using technical analysis, but the 200-period simple

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TRADING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT 

Figure 2 : USD/JPY- Charts courtesy of Fxtrek by Intellicharts

moving average (SMA) on the hourly charts may be particularly 

eective in this case. By using a longer-term average on short-term charts, you can stay on the right side o the price action without being subject to near-term whipsaw moves.

Note that on September 18, 2007, the EUR/USD is trading well above its 200-period simple moving average. Tis indicatesthat the pair is in a strong uptrend (Figure 1). As price ap-proaches the 1.3900 level to the upside, the trader would initiatea long the moment price crosses the 1.3885 level, putting a stop15 points below the entry at 1.3870. In this particular example,the upside momentum is extremely strong as traders gun stopsat the 1.3900 level within the hour. Te exit or the rst hal o 

the trade is at 1.3900 or a 15-point prot and the second hal is exited at 1.3915 generating 45 points o reward or only 30points o risk.

Te example illustrated in Figure 2 takes place on October 5,2007, but this time it is in the USD/JPY. Te ‘trade zone’ setupgenerates several opportunities or prot over a short period o time as key stop cluster areas are probed over and over. In thiscase, the pair trades well above its 200-period simple movingaverage and the trader would only look to take long setups. At4pm ES, the pair trades through the 116.85 level, triggering along entry. In the next hour, the longs are able to push the pair

through the 117.15 stop cluster level and the trader would sellboth units or a combined 45-point prot.

Te longs cannot sustain the buying momentum but the pair

never trades below 116.85. Te trader could enter once again onthe 7pm ES close o 116.95, keeping a 15-point stop. Only 

two hours later, prices once again rally through 117.15 and the

trader makes a prot on the second trade. Tus, multiple prot

targets are hit as buying momentum overwhelms the shorts and

they are orced to cover their positions, creating a cascade o 

stops that steadily push prices higher.

Conclusion

Te ‘stop hunt with the big specs’ is one o the simplest and

most efcient Forex setups available to short-term traders. It

requires nothing more than ocus and a basic understandingo currency market dynamics. Instead o being victims o stop

hunting expeditions, retail traders can nally turn the tables and

 join the move with the big players, banking short-term prots

in the process.

Boris Schlossberg is the Senior Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com. He is

the co-author of Amazon’s #1 investing book Millionaire Traders – How 

Every Day People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game.

This Investopedia.com article was reprinted with the

permission o Investopedia.com, the web’s largestfnancial education site.

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