Storm-Scale NWP:Storm-Scale NWP:Scientific and Operational Scientific and Operational Challenges for the Next Challenges for the Next

DecadeDecade

Kelvin K. DroegemeierKelvin K. DroegemeierSchool of Meteorology and School of Meteorology and

Center for Analysis and Prediction of StormsCenter for Analysis and Prediction of StormsUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma

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COMET Faculty Course on HydrometeorologyCOMET Faculty Course on Hydrometeorology16 June 200016 June 2000

Boulder, ColoradoBoulder, Colorado

The Future of Operational NWPThe Future of Operational NWP

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10 km

3 km

1 km

20 km CONUS Ensembles

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10 km

3 km

3 km

3 km3 km

10 km

20 km CONUS Ensembles

The Future of Operational The Future of Operational NWPNWP

NEXRAD Doppler Radar DataNEXRAD Doppler Radar DataThe KEY ResourceThe KEY Resource

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New Concept: Abilene + New Concept: Abilene + NEXRADNEXRAD

NCEP

NCDC

OSF

AWC

TPC

FSL

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The Future of Operational NWP??The Future of Operational NWP??

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Meso-scale NWPMeso-scale NWP The prediction of the The prediction of the general characteristicsgeneral characteristics

associated with mesoscale weather associated with mesoscale weather phenomenaphenomena

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6-hour ARPS Forecast at 9 km resolutionWSR-88D CREF (02 UTC 30 Nov 1999)

Storm-scale NWPStorm-scale NWP The prediction of The prediction of explicit updraft/downdraftsexplicit updraft/downdrafts

and related features (e.g., gust fronts, meso-and related features (e.g., gust fronts, meso-cyclones)cyclones)

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NEXRAD Radar ObservationsARPS 90 min Forecast (3 km)

What Resolution is What Resolution is RequiredRequired

for Hydrologic for Hydrologic Applications?Applications?

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Downscaledto 375 m

Downscaling?Downscaling?

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Surface Rainrate (8400)

wavenumber, k, (km-1)

0.01 0.1 1

PSD

(ar

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unit

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1e-1

1e+0

1e+1

1e+2

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1e+5

1e+6

375 m modeled field375 m downscaled field

fitted line

Spatial Accuracy is Key -- Spatial Accuracy is Key -- EnsemblesEnsembles

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3 km ARPS Forecast Valid 00Z Monday, 16 June 1997

Amarillo

Fort Worth

Storm-Scale Ensembles in ActionStorm-Scale Ensembles in Action

5-Member, 3 km ARPS Ensemble

Amarillo

Fort Worth

5-Member, 3 km ARPS Ensemble

Amarillo

Fort Worth

Storm-Scale Ensembles in ActionStorm-Scale Ensembles in Action