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we should expect more intensive activityas time goes by.
Thus, with population densityincreasing, the number of deaths would beexpected to increase over time.
In reality, the casualty rate hasdecreased.
In 1930 three people were affected byhurricanes for each person killed. By 1989that ratio had shifted to 100 000 to one.
The ratio of dollar value of damage to people killed rose from US $5 000 to US $20 000 000 during the sameperiod.
The reduced death rates are due largelyto improved warning systems andpreparation.
Some progress has been made towardreducing damage, but that is a moredifficult issue.
By definition a hurricane is a large non-frontal tropical depression or cyclone withwind speeds in excess of 119 kilometresper hour (kph) – by contrast a tropicalstorm has wind speeds of 63 to 119 kph.
The hurricane season of the GreaterCaribbean Basin runs from June 1 throughNovember 30, and an estimated 84 percent of activity can occur between Augustand September.
Hurricanes cause damage due to theirhigh winds, heavy rainfall, and stormsurge. Winds up to about 162 kilometresper hour can cause moderate damagesuch as blowing out windows. Above thatvelocity, winds can cause structuraldamage.
Heavy rainfall can cause flooding whileputting at risk all structures andtransportation facilities in valleys, whiletriggering landslides.
Storm surge is a risk factor whichpersons living or working in coastal areasneed to be cognisant of.
By definition it is a rise in sea level dueto the impact of on-shore winds and lowbarometric pressure.
Storm surges of 7.5 metres abovemean sea level are not unknown and asurge of over three metres would not beuncommon for a large hurricane.
Storm surges present the greatestthreat to coastal communities and 90 percent of hurricane fatalities could be due todrowning caused by the inability of peopleto escape these storm surges.
If heavy rain accompanies one of theseevents and hurricane landfall occurs at apeak high tide, the consequences can becatastrophic.
The excess water inland could createfluvial flooding, and the simultaneousincrease in sea level blocks the seawardflow of rivers, leaving nowhere for thewater to go.
Positive advancesIn the past three decades the ability to
forecast and monitor these storms hasincreased greatly, something which hashad a dramatic impact on the saving oflives.
So far has technology advanced thatthe time and location of landfall and theresulting damage can be estimated.
The United States National HurricaneCentre (NHC) uses this information toissue track prediction and intensityforecasts every six hours for tropicalstorms and hurricanes in theAtlantic/Caribbean region.
The National Oceanographic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA) hasdeveloped the model – Sea Lake OverlandSurge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) whichsimulates the effects of a hurricane as itapproaches land.
This technology helps to determinewhich areas should be abandoned andplan evacuation routes.
At the national level non-structuralmitigation strategies could includecampaigns to create public awareness ofwarning services and protective measures,since informed citizens would be morelikely to check the condition of their roofsand other structures at risk.
Good examples of such campaignsmay be found in The Bahamas, Barbados,and Jamaica.
Insurance can also be structured toencourage sound land use and structuralmitigation actions.
Among the important structuralstrategies would be codes to regulate the design and construction of buildings.
In public works, the influence wouldextend to construction of breakwaters,diversion canals, and storm surge gates as well as the planting of trees to serve aswindbreaks.
All these approaches could be effectivein large urban settings wherecommunications are good and institutionalarrangements are firmly in place.
National emergency preparednessoffices usually do not have the resourcesto function effectively in areas of lowpopulation density when faced withwidespread catastrophes such ashurricanes.
Preparedness optionsAn alternative would be to prepare
small areas to respond to emergencies by relying on their own means.
The approach followed by theOrganisation of American States (OAS) in collaboration with the Pan CaribbeanDisaster Preparedness and PreventionProject (PCDPPP) in several EasternCaribbean countries, involves training localdisaster managers and community leadersin urban and rural settlements to organisedisaster risk assessment and mitigationinitiatives in their communities.
A training manual and accompanyingvideo was produced for this purpose andshould be available.
The focus is on lifeline networks(transportation, communications, water,electricity, and sanitation) and criticalfacilities (health and education facilities,police and fire stations, communityfacilities, and emergency shelters).
Combining the disaster preparednessefforts of the PCDPPP programme withdisaster prevention through the integrateddevelopment planning of the OAS clearlyillustrates that the interface of disastersand development is possible.
2. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
Stories by DAVID ALLEYNE
NO ONE in his or her right mind should wish to experience the devastationwhich a hurricane can bring, unfortunately these highly dangerous weathersystems are a way of life for millions of people in the Caribbean Basin.
In this region, hurricanes cause more damage and disturb the lives ofmore people than any other natural hazard.
Such is their destructive potential that in Mexico and Central America,they are second only to earthquakes.
Available data suggests that between 1960 to 1989 hurricanes killed28 000 people, disrupted the lives of six million, and destroyed propertyworth US$16 billion in the Greater Caribbean Basin.
This data does not include details of losses in the United States and USterritories.
Even though Barbados has had an incredible run of luck, smallcountries like ours are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, since they canbe affected over their entire land mass and major infrastructure andeconomic activities may be brought to a crippling halt by a single event.
More significant, however, is the record ofour efforts at reducing these impacts.
Hurricane intensity has not abated,indeed the experts have been warning that Progress on
reducingvulnerability
REDUCED DEATH rates havebeen due largely to improvedwarning systems andpreparation. (RC)
GIVEN the technology which exists todayit would be impossible for Barbadians tobe caught off guard by the arrival of ahurricane.
There is cable and satellite televisionaround the clock, you can access localradio stations at any hour and, of course,there is the Internet.
With so many options any of us cancheck the progress of a tropical systemwhenever we feel inclined,
Contrast our position with thecommunications situation in this countryapproximately 55 years ago.
Save for the wired network ofBarbados Rediffusion Service Ltd –which not every household could afford –there were no locally operated radiostations in this country.
Hence any warnings given ahead ofJanet would have been limited.
Barbadians who experienced theravages of Hurricane Janet would recallthat the system struck the island early inthe morning as people were preparing togo about their daily routine.
Our housing stock was nothing likewhat we have today and 20 000 personswere left homeless with a death toll ofapproximately 38.
Stories still live on among Barbadiansin the sixties age group and older aboutthe traumatic experiences of runningthrough the winds and rains in search ofshelter.
Tales of people running crouched overespecially when whistling noises filled theair as loose galvanise sheets sailedthrough the air above their heads werecommon place in the aftermath.
Some Barbadians tried valiantly to savethe roofs of their modest wooden homesby tying the rafters down with ropes.
Needless to say that strategy did notwork for everyone.
With precious little street lighting itwould have been traumatic indeed.
Now compare that situation to modernBarbados where state-of-the-artcommunication links including a newDoppler radar installation abound.
No one should be caught off guard bythe approach of a hurricane today, notwhen it is possible to go to the web site ofan agency like the Florida-based NationalHurricane Centre (NHC).
We may suffer from other issues likepoor drainage in several areas or thequality of some of our existing housingstock, but the lack of adequate warningshould be the least of our worries.
As we enter the second andtraditionally more active half of the annualAtlantic Storm Season all of us should beaware.
Every Barbadian household should beprepared for anything.
Property insurance coverage should beactive and adequate and all necessaryrepairs to homes should be completed.
Stocks of key supplies including non-perishable food, flashlights, portableradios and additional batteries, protectivegloves and footwear, containers fordrinking water and additional supplies ofmedication, should be at hand.
The approach of emergency responseagencies has changed in recent years. Nolonger do they preach state organisedrelief but rather self-reliance.
Depending on what the hurricaneleaves in its wake, it could take fromseveral hours to a couple of days for reliefefforts to reach certain areas.
Self reliance means that groups of ablebodied individuals should have cometogether by now to indentify theirneighbours who would be mostvulnerable.
There should be an inventory of the
number of four by four vehicles whichwould be the best option of getting aroundin the aftermath.
Residents should have an idea of howmany generators and power saws wouldbe available after the storm’s passage aswell as who would be expected to comeand lend a hand with the clean up.
Granted that the State would play itspart but depending on the severity of theimpact, the response time could be drawnout.
Individual expectations during a posthurricane response should be reasonable.
If your roof is blown off, the most thatrelief officials would do in the short-termwould be to provide plastic sheeting toprotect the contents from further damage.
It would be asking too much to see atruck loaded with roof sheets and woodturn up to put a roof back on.
Unlike several of our Caribbeanneighbours Barbados has not beensubject to a direct by a hurricane in almost55 years.
Based on the laws of probability ourluck cannot hold out forever.
One of these days a system is going toscore a direct hit and unless we dragourselves out of what has evolved into asense of significant complacency, the costof the devastation is bound to besignificant.
For years, local engineers have beenwarning that a significant percentage ofour housing stock would be vulnerable tothe ravages of a severe storm.
They have declared that poorconstruction techniques have beenadopted and this is where the much talkedabout Barbados Building Code would putthe brakes on future construction whichdoes not meet required standards.
When the roof of a house or otherbuildings fails during a hurricane or severetropical storm, the entire structure andcontents would be compromised.
When roofing systems fail, they usuallydo so at areas most susceptible to uplift:the perimeter, corners, along seams, andaround the location of rooftop
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 3
Technology takes awayelement of surprise
• Continued on next page
TRACKING a hurricane today is hardly a problem. There are many optionsavailable: cable and satellite television around the clock, local radio stationsand, of course, the Internet. (FP)
accessories, such as vents, satellitedishes, or air conditioning chill water units.
Members of the engineering communitywould no doubt argue that damage bywind could be avoided as long as careand diligence are applied both during thedesign and placement phases.
Indeed, most roofing systems ifproperly designed, should withstand high-wind events and even hurricane-forcesituations.
Because home construction is thesingle largest expense that mostindividuals will undertake in their lifetimes,availability of funding often dictates whatwe do, how we approach the project.
Human nature being what it is, somepeople would be inclined to cut cornerswhen the time to put on the roof comes.
When a storm comes, many ownersgraphically see where they went wrong.
Wind tunnel testing has shown that aroof with multiple slopes, such as a fourslope hip roof performs better under windforces compared to the gable roof withtwo slopes.
Gable roofs are, however, morecommon because they are cheaper tobuild.
An optimal roof slope should be around30 degrees.
A single slope roof is notrecommended because uplift forcesgenerated during a storm can tear theseoff quite easily.
On houses with a double-span roof it isimportant to structurally disconnect thetwo roofs. If not, the collapse of one roofmight trigger a failure of the other.
A hip-roofed home of a cubical form isconsidered one of the best configurationsto use in high wind or hurricane proneareas.
To reduce wind uplift forces on a roof,an opening in a zone of negative windpressure would be helpful in alleviatingwind pressures and creating a balancebetween indoor and outdoor pressures.
Consider roof openings that wouldpromote natural ventilation under regularwarm conditions while reducing windpressures on the roof during hurricanes.
The best locations for such openingswould be close to the ridge, the area oflargest depression on the roof.
Note that some means of protecting theinterior from possible rains should beadopted in these cases.
How well a roof survives an episodecould also be influenced by the type ofroof cover chosen.
Modern options include galvanisesheets, clay tiles and asphalt shingles.
The key to their performance is linkedto how securely they are put on in the firstplace.
Remember when porches were anintegral feature of Caribbean housedesign?
If you wish to add one to your house,bear in mind that porch roofs andoverhangs are often subject to high upliftforces during storms and hurricanes.
It is recommended that they bestructurally disconnected from the mainstructure, especially at roof level becausea collapse of these elements could triggera wider roof failure.
Keep roof overhangs as short aspossible too.
A significant percentage of the housesin Barbados are of masonry constructionbecause it is generally accepted that theseare more resilient to wind damage.
Attention should always be paid to roofconstruction and how it is attached to themain frame.
A well-constructed masonry structurewith firm foundations should normallysurvive floods better than lighter weightwood buildings.
To get the most out of your investment,masonry walls should be reinforced andexterior walls connected to providecontinuity.
Compared to wood, exterior walls inmasonry structures are more resistant towindborne debris and require lessmaintenance.
They are, however, more affected byground movement – for examplesubsidence – which can lead to cracks inthe walls.
Masonry walls also require a moresignificant foundation system due to theirgreater weight and tend to become morevulnerable with time due to deteriorationcaused by weather or groundwater.
Good materials make a buildingstronger against wind loads and flooding.Walls can suffer damage duringwindstorms from direct pressure or fromsuction forces.
The quality of mortar is important sinceit binds the blocks and prevents themfrom moving. It is equally important to usestrong masonry units. The use of strongmortar with weak masonry units couldmake the wall more prone to cracking.
Connections between walls should bestrong.
In masonry walls, this could beachieved by using beams with horizontalreinforcement at the top of the walls andat floor level to tie the walls together andincrease their lateral resistance.
Corners should be made stronger byadding reinforcing bars to horizontalmortar joints.
The strength of a masonry building canbe greatly improved by tying the wall topstogether by a continuous ring beam.
This ring must be well connected to thewalls, and to the adjacent roof or floor.
In tall walls, another beam isrecommended at the lintel level.
When hollow masonry blocks are used,a beam generally consists of U-shapedconcrete blocks with the concrete cast inthem.
Reinforcing bars in the concrete shouldhave an adequate cover and shouldprovide continuity at the corners.
Floor joists and roof trusses should bebolted to the beam as well.
4. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
• From Page 3.
Strong structures key to survival
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 5
Handling aftermath amatter of preparation
PUBLIC drinking watersupplies are put at risk bystorm surge and floodingthat often accompanyhurricanes or storms. (FP)
DEPENDING on how hard yourneighbourhood or your entirecountry is impacted, the return tonormal following the passage of asevere storm can take quitesometime.
How well you survive this initialpost-impact period would beinfluenced by your level ofpreparedness at the outset.
The stresses and strains of anapproaching hurricane or majorstorm can take a toll on family,friends, and neighbours.
There would be worries aboutthe psychological stress on thethousands who would have fledstorm-damaged homes to staywith friends and family or seekrefuge in crowded shelters.
The stresses and strainscreated by displacement canpromote domestic violence,substance abuse, depression,
and even suicide.The days and weeks
immediately after a hurricane arelikely to be rough.
In addition to your physicalhealth, you need to take sometime to consider your mentalhealth as well.
Some sleeplessness, anxiety,anger, hyperactivity, milddepression, or lethargy would benormal, and could go away withtime.
Should you feel any of thesesymptoms acutely, seekcounseling.
Individual responses to athreatening or potentially-traumatic event may vary.Emotional reactions may includefeelings of fear, grief anddepression.
Physical and behaviouralresponses might include nausea,
dizziness and changes inappetite, sleep pattern, as well aswithdrawal from daily activities.
Responses to trauma can lastfor weeks to months beforepeople start to feel normal again.
Seek medical care if youbecome injured, feel sick, orexperience stress and anxiety.
There are many things you cando to cope with such a traumaticepisode.
Incorporate as many elementsof your normal routine into yourdisaster plans as possible,including activities to allay thechildren’s fears.
Be aware that you would havefewer resources to attend to yourday-to-day conflicts, so resolvewhat you can ahead of time.
Turn to family, friends, andimportant social or religiouscontacts to set-up support
networks to help deal with thepotential stressors.
Let your children know that itis okay to feel upset whensomething bad or scary happens.
Even though your normalroutine would be interrupted,certain aspects of life must goon.
You must do all that you canto secure a supply of food.
Immediately after the all-clearis given, go check the supplies ofperishable food in your home anddetermine how much of it is stillfit for human consumption.
A refrigerator will keep foodscool for about four hours withoutpower if it remains unopened.
If the period without electricityis likely to exceed four hours, addblock or dry ice to yourrefrigerator to help preserve yourfood for a longer period.
Thawed food can usually beeaten if it is still ‘refrigerator cold’,or re-frozen while it still containsice crystals.
Discard any food which hasbeen at temperatures greaterthan 40 degrees Fahrenheit orfour degrees Celsius for twohours or more, or any food thathas an unusual odour, colour, ortexture.
As long as the power is out,keep refrigerator and freezerdoors closed as much aspossible to keep food cold for aslong as possible.
Public drinking water suppliescould be at risk if the hurricane orstorm is accompanied by stormsurge and flooding.
Drinking contaminated watermay cause illness and you should
• Continued on next page
6. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
not assume that water in ahurricane-affected area is safe.
Play it safe and use bottledwater for eating or drinking.
If you do not have bottledwater, and you are not sure ifyour tap water is safe boil all thatyou intend to use for domesticpurposes, especially drinking.
If boiling is not an option, addsix drops of unscented liquidhousehold bleach per gallon ofwater, stir it well, and then let thewater stand for 30 minutes beforeyou use it.
If you have them, water-purifying tablets will do the job aswell.
There is always the possibilitythat water may contain fecalmaterial from overflowing sewagesystems and agricultural andindustrial waste. Although skincontact with floodwater does not,by itself, pose a serious healthrisk, there is risk of disease fromeating or drinking anythingcontaminated with floodwater.
Do not allow children to play infloodwaters and wash their handsfrequently especially beforemeals.
Never allow your charges toplay with floodwater-contaminated toys that have notbeen disinfected.
The bottom line – always playit safe in post-hurricaneconditions because the potentialfor illness and injury could beextremely high.
First aid is extremelyimportant when exposure to
waters potentially contaminatedwith human, animal, or toxicwastes.
Should you be injured duringclean-up operations, immediatelyclean all open wounds and cutswith disinfectant and clean water.
Apply an antibiotic ointment todiscourage infection.
Should a wound developredness or swelling, seekimmediate medical attentiongiven that a tetanus shot mightbe required.
When the wind and watersrecede, people in areas impactedby a hurricane will continue toface a number of hazardsassociated with clean-upactivities.
Play it safe and wearprotective gear while working.
Hard hats, goggles, heavywork gloves, and watertightboots with steel toes arerecommended.
Always wear earplugs or otherprotective equipment to reducenoise risk from chain saws,backhoes, and other heavyequipment.
Prolonged exposure maycause ringing in the ears andsubsequent hearing damage.
Water and downed or exposedelectrical cables can be a badmix during post hurricaneconditions.
If water is present anywherenear electrical circuits andelectrical equipment, turn off thepower at the main breaker on theservice panel.
For your own safety, do not
turn the power back on until theequipment has been inspectedby a qualified electrician.
Never enter flooded areas nortouch electrical equipment if theground is wet, unless you are 110per cent certain that the power isoff.
If clearing or other work mustbe performed near a downedpower line, contact the utilitycompany first.
Extreme caution should beexercised when moving laddersand other equipment nearoverhead power lines to avoidinadvertent contact.
When using gasoline anddiesel generators to supplypower to a building, switch themain breaker or fuse on theservice panel to the ‘off’ positionprior to starting the generator.
Remember the dangers whichcan be posed by carbon dioxideas you use generators to deliverpower.
Carbon monoxide is anodorless, colourless gas whichcan prove fatal if inhaled insufficient quantity.
During the clean-up, operateall gasoline or diesel-powereddevices such as pumps,generators, and pressurewashers outdoors whereventilation is adequate to ensure
your safety from carbonmonoxide poisoning.
If heavy lifting is required,precautions should be taken toavoid back injuries associatedwith manual lifting and handlingof bulky debris and buildingmaterials.
To help prevent injury: Useteams of two or more to movebulky objects.
Avoid lifting any material thatweighs more than 50 pounds (perperson) and use properautomated-assist lifting deviceswhenever possible.
Whatever you do, keep safetyforemost in your mind.
A study of 2 090 hurricane-related emergency visits duringand after Hurricane Hugo in1989, conducted by the Centersfor Disease Control andPrevention in Atlanta and theNorth Carolina Department ofEnvironment, Health and NaturalResources, found that 88 percent of the patients were treatedfor injuries.
Insect stings and woundsaccounted for nearly half of thetotal cases. Nearly one-third ofthe wounds were caused bychain saws.
Motor vehicle accidents andfalls were also major causes ofhurricane-related injuries.
• From Page 5.
Playing it safethe way to go
WATER and downed or exposed electrical cables can be abad mix during post hurricane conditions. (FP)
JAMAICAN YOUTHS wading in floodwaters left in the wakeof Hurricane Ivan. (FP)
AT LEFT: Some of the membersof Barbados’ roving responseteams who are trained torespond at a moment’s noticeshould a crisis arise.Inset is Randy Chandler of theBarbados Citizens’ Band
Association.Below: The volunteers need to be wellequipped to do the job. Here are some of thetools of the trade. (Pictures by Rawle Culbard)
WHEN HURRICANES, floods, masscasualties or earthquakes threatenBarbados, much of the response effortrevolves around the efforts of groups ofvolunteers who readily brave the situationto be part of a coordinated response.
By definition volunteers are not paid fortheir work, but there are times when weowe them more than a mere thank you fortheir efforts to assist persons in need orsupplying information to make for a morecoordinated response.
Among those selfless heroes are themen and women of the various DistrictEmergency Organisations (DEO) acrossBarbados.
According to the chairman of the StJohn DEO, John Haynes, its all aboutcommitment.
Noting that “we are into the peak of thehurricane season” he said every DEOacross Barbados must be ready torespond at a moment’s notice should therebe a storm system heading our way.
“The volunteer situation as it is now isone which does not wait until thehurricane season is upon us. We do a yearround preparation so that by the time thehurricane season gets here we would beable to respond in case of anyeventuality.”
Truth be told, Haynes said“volunteerism is not an easy task”.
Stressing that this was not aphenomenon unique to Barbados, the StJohn DEO chairman said even serviceorganisations encounter problems findingvolunteers.
“Anybody who comes to the table tovolunteer always asks what is in it for me,as opposed to what can they give to theorganisation.”
He said people often approach because“they are looking for a piece of change”.
Outside of the hurricane season, DEOchairmen try to keep their members sharpand, said Haynes: “We are now looking atcomprehensive disaster management –how we manage disasters as opposed tomerely responding to them.”
He noted that the initiative calls for yearround training and the sensitisation ofcommunities.
Asked about the level of personnelwhich would be required to make sure that
a DEO functions effectively, Haynes said:“A complement is based on the populationof the area for which you haveresponsibility.”
He noted that the St John DEO has apopulation of approximately 7 800 personsunder its mandate “and therefore what wedo is to set up persons within districts ofthe parish – what could be termed cellgroups – and the numbers are determinedby how large an area you are looking at”.
Haynes also spoke of a recentlyconcluded study of the Martin’s Bay area,which he termed “one of the mostvulnerable areas in our parish”.
According to him, Martin’s Bay is hometo 181 males and 180 females “and in thatarea we have a chap named William wholeads a team of nine other persons, andthat complement would be able to look atanything which happens in that area”.
He also noted that each member of theteam was trained in first aid, five in searchand rescue techniques and all havecommunications training.
Haynes said the need forcommunications during times of crisismeans that an alliance exists between thevarious DEOs and the Barbados CitizensBand Radio Association based at NurseryDrive, St Michael.
On the issue of resources to carry outthe mandate of a DEO, the St Johnchairman noted that it was hard toquantify adequate because one wouldnever know beforehand, the scale of anytragedy which might impact an area.
Even so, “We always prepare for theoverwhelming situation.”
According to Haynes, St John was inpossession of four chain saws, six handheld radios to supplement what the DEOhad before and “there’s a base stationtoo”.
The organisation also has first aid kits,rope and other items which would come inhandy should a storm strike Barbados.
He also disclosed that should anepisode occur, the St John DEO couldcount on the assistance of the agricultureplantations – few that they were, acrossthe parish.
“At the moment, our resources includean emergency operations centre equippedwith cots, stretchers, computer capability
and a generator ... so we are pretty muchprepared in case anything happens.”
Asked how a DEO recruits itsmembership, Haynes said it was notnecessary for one to reside in theparticular area or constituency.
“To become a member is an easy thing,
once you are in helping others, interestedin being a volunteer and in being trained torespond. And you do not have to attendmeetings every time we have one. As longas you have training and if somethinghappens, we can call on you – that is theimportant thing.”
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 7
Response teamsever ready to act
8. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
WILL we make it to November 30 withoutany major alarms?
This is the question which we inBarbados should be pondering now thatthe second and traditionally more activepart of the 2010 hurricane season hasbegun.
While it is true that Barbados hasenjoyed an incredible run of luck since thepassage of Hurricane Janet onSeptember 22, 1955, we should notexpect that our luck will hold forever.
Even then we were lucky because at itsstrongest Hurricane Janet was adevastating Category Five system whichleft significant death and destruction in itswake.
It emerged out of what forecasterstermed a weak tropical wave movingacross the Atlantic in mid-September.
By Saturday, September 21, TropicalStorm Janet was positioned east of theLesser Antilles.
Approximately 24 hours later the
system had developed into a CategoryThree hurricane, on a track towardsBarbados.
The size of the eye was an estimated37 kilometres wide.
Thousands of Barbadians were lefthomeless after winds estimated at 125miles per hour battered the island.
Grenada and some of the Grenadineislands felt Janet’s fury as well.
As it moved through the easternCaribbean Sea, conditions becameunfavourable for continued development,and Janet weakened to a minimalhurricane on September 23.
Over the next few days, Janet steadilyintensified with better conditions, reachingpeak wind speeds of 175 miles per houror 280 kilometres per hour winds in thewestern Caribbean Sea – making it one ofthe most intense Atlantic hurricanes onrecord.
Janet remained a Category Fivehurricane, and made landfall near the city
of Chetumal, Mexico on September 28.It brought heavy flooding and wind
damage to the Yucatan Peninsula andBelize – known then as British Honduras.
As it crossed the peninsula, thehurricane weakened to a 100 mile perhour or 160 kilometres per hour system.
Over the Bay of Campeche, it did nothave much time to strengthen, makinglandfall between Vera Cruz and Naulta,Mexico on September 29 as a 110 milesper hour or 175 kilometres per hourstorm.
Janet dissipated the next day overMexico.
In view of the devastation it caused,the name was retired and Janet holds thedistinction of being one of the few stormswhich caused a hurricane hunter to crash.
Given that tropical storms andhurricanes can be exceptionallyunpredictable in their behaviour, the bestthing that we can do is to be prepared forthe worst.
Lest we forget... Janet VILLAGERS hurry by a house that was tossed onto another one
as Janet unleashed her fury on Barbados. (FP)
PART of a tree in Belleville, StMichael, uprooted by the ragingwinds of Hurricane Janet. (FP)
ALARMS for the 2010 Atlantic Storm Season have beenfew, but renowned researchers Philip Klotzbach andProfessor William Gray are standing by the initialprediction that the season should be a very active one.
Just a few weeks ago on Wednesday, August 4, theirlatest assessment suggested there was no reason toback away.
“We have maintained our forecast from early June andcontinue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricaneseason in 2010 due to unusually warm tropical Atlanticsea surface temperatures and the development of LaNiña. We anticipate a well above-average probability ofUnited States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”
Explaining the rationale behind their annual predictionsthe researchers said a few things should be noted by allabout the Atlantic Ocean.
According to Klotzbach and Gray: “The Atlantic basinhas the largest year-to-year variability of any of the globaltropical cyclone basins. People are curious to know howactive the upcoming season is likely to be, particularly ifyou can show hindcast skill improvement overclimatology for many past years.”
They warned, however, of the challenges of preciselypredicting the season’shurricane activity in earlyAugust.
“Our early Auguststatistical forecastmethodology shows strongevidence over more than 100past years that significantimprovement overclimatology can be attained.”
Why issue an annualassessment?
“We issue these forecaststo satisfy the curiosity of thegeneral public and to bringattention to the hurricaneproblem. There is a generalinterest in knowing what theodds are for an active or aninactive season. One mustremember that our forecastsare based on the premisethat those global oceanicand atmospheric conditionswhich precededcomparatively active orinactive hurricane seasons inthe past provide meaningfulinformation about similartrends in future seasons.”
The team also cautionedthat their research efforts“do not specifically predictwhere within the Atlanticbasin these storms will strike”.
According to them, the probability of landfall for anyone location along the coast is very low and reflects thefact that, in any one season, most United States coastalareas would not be impacted by a hurricane no matterhow active the individual season might be.
Even so, Klotzbach and Gray urged all coastalresidents to prepare for an active hurricane season everyyear.
They reminded that tropical cyclones could devastatecommunities even if seasons were classified as inactiveor active and it would only require one landfalling systemto make it an active season for residents of an area.
They also noted that data obtained through July 2010suggested that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season wouldbe much more active than the average of the seasons1950 through 2000.
The outlook spoke of 2010 recording about 10hurricanes – the average being 5.9.
An estimated 18 named storms – the average being9.6 storms – was also mentioned.
A possibility of 90 named storm days as against anaverage of 49.1 was alluded to as well.
If Klotzbach and Gray are correct there could be 40hurricane days well above the average of 24.5 hurricanedays.
At least five major hurricanes (Categories 3-4-5) morethan double the average could impact the region too,bringing 13 major hurricane days more than double theaverage of 5.0 hurricane days.
“We have witnessed the development of La Niñaconditions over the past couple of months, and webelieve that a moderate La Niña will be present over thenext several months. The trend towards La Niñaconditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical windshear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.Another reason for our continued active seasonalforecast is the persistence of anomalously warm seasurface temperatures in both the tropical and NorthAtlantic.”
According to the researchers these sea surfacetemperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic are at near-record warm levels.
“These very warm waters are associated with dynamicand thermodynamic factors that are very conducive foran active Atlantic hurricane season. Another factor in themaintenance of our very active season forecast is theanomalously low sea level pressures that have occurredacross the tropical Atlantic in June and July.“
Klotzbach and Gray also said they were issuing ahurricane forecast for activity in the Caribbean Basin,based on a statistical prediction scheme that utilises 60years of past data – a model which was predicting a veryactive season for the Caribbean.
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 9
Klotzbach, Graysticking to forecast
PHILIP KLOTZBACH (FP)
PROF. WILLIAM GRAY (FP)
HU
RR
IC
AN
E T
RA
CK
IN
G C
HA
RT
Atl
an
tic O
cean
Cari
bb
ean
Sea
10. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
BE
FO
RE
•Ke
ep y
our
radi
os t
uned
to
one
of t
he l
ocal
stat
ions
. Mak
e ce
rtain
the
batte
ries
are
fresh
inyo
ur p
orta
ble
radi
o.•
Stay
awa
y fro
m b
each
es a
nd o
ther
low
-lyin
gar
eas
which
may
be
swep
t by
high
tide
s or
sto
rmwa
ves.
Lea
ve e
arly!
Roa
ds to
hig
h gr
ound
may
beco
me
impa
ssab
le h
ours
bef
ore
the
hurri
cane
hits
land
.•
Stor
e an
ythi
ng t
hat
coul
d bl
ow a
way:
gar
bage
cans
, gar
den
tool
s, fu
rnitu
re a
nd p
lant
s. R
emov
etre
e lim
bs th
at c
ould
fall
on y
our h
ouse
or p
ower
lines
.•
Lock
gar
age
door
s. A
wnin
gs s
houl
d be
tie
dse
cure
ly or
take
n do
wn. B
oard
up
wind
ows.
•Do
not
dra
in y
our
swim
min
g po
ol.
Turn
off
all
elec
trica
l poo
l equ
ipm
ent.
Add
extra
chl
orin
e to
avoi
d co
ntam
inat
ion.
•Bo
ats
shou
ld b
e ha
uled
out
or m
oore
d st
rong
ly.Do
not
try
to s
ecur
e yo
ur b
oat i
n ro
ugh
wate
r.•
Mak
e ce
rtain
you
r ca
r is
safe
– p
refe
rabl
y in
aga
rage
. Fill
your
tank
with
gas
olin
e.•
Keep
you
r fla
shlig
ht in
goo
d wo
rkin
g or
der.
Beve
ry c
aref
ul if
you
use
can
dles
and
/or
porta
ble
cook
ing
equi
pmen
t.•
Fill
clean
con
tain
ers
with
drin
king
wate
r. Pu
tla
rge
wate
r con
tain
er in
the
bath
room
. Toi
lets
will
not
flush
if
wate
r su
pply
is in
terru
pted
. Fi
llba
thtu
bs a
nd s
inks
.•
Be s
ure
you
have
ple
nty
of n
on-p
erish
able
food
on h
and.
•Fi
re c
an b
e a
serio
us p
robl
em. H
ave
a go
od fi
reex
tingu
isher
nea
rby.
An a
ltern
ative
is a
buc
ket o
fsa
nd.
DU
RIN
G•
Keep
you
r ra
dio
tune
d co
ntin
uous
ly to
a lo
cal
stat
ion
for f
requ
ent h
urric
ane
upda
tes.
•St
ay in
side!
Lea
ve o
nly
if or
dere
d to
eva
cuat
e.•
If yo
u m
ust d
rive,
wat
ch fo
r fa
lling
trees
, fal
len
wire
s an
d flo
odin
g.•
Keep
one
win
dow
sligh
tly o
pen
on th
e le
ewar
dsid
e of
you
r hou
se. I
f a w
indo
w br
eaks
, go
to a
nin
terio
r roo
m to
avo
id in
jury
from
flyin
g gl
ass.
•Us
e yo
ur te
leph
one
for e
mer
genc
y ca
lls o
nly.
•If
the
eye
of th
e st
orm
pas
ses
over
you
r hou
se,
stay
ins
ide!
The
win
ds w
ill re
turn
sud
denl
y –
poss
ibly
with
eve
n gr
eate
r for
ce.
AF
TE
R•
Keep
you
r rad
ios
tune
d to
a lo
cal s
tatio
n. M
any
prec
autio
nary
ste
ps m
ust
be t
aken
afte
r a
hurri
cane
pas
ses.
•St
ay a
way
from
disa
ster
are
as! S
tay
away
from
brok
en a
nd l
ow-h
angi
ng p
ower
lin
es.
Notif
ypo
lice
or th
e ut
ility
com
pany
of t
he d
amag
e.•
Stay
hom
e! D
o no
t driv
e!•
Ope
n fre
ezer
s an
d ic
e ch
est
only
w
hen
nece
ssar
y un
til po
wer i
s re
stor
ed.
•M
ake
a lis
t of s
torm
dam
age
to y
ou h
ome.
Tak
eph
otog
raph
s of
th
e da
mag
e fo
r In
sura
nce
purp
oses
.
HU
RR
ICA
NE
PR
EC
AU
TIO
NS
EM
ER
GE
NC
YN
UM
BE
RS
PO
LIC
E E
ME
RG
EN
CY
. . . . . . . . .211
DE
PA
RT
ME
NT
OF
EM
ER
GE
NC
YD
EF
EN
CE
FO
RC
EM
AN
AG
EM
EN
T . . . . .427-8
513
EM
ER
GE
NC
Y . . . . . . . . .436-6
185
OR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .438-7
575
FIR
E E
ME
RG
EN
CY
. . . . . . . . . . .311
OR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .422-7
725
Q.E
. H
OS
PIT
AL
. . . . . . . . . .436-6
450
CO
AS
T G
UA
RD
EM
ER
GE
NC
Y– 4
27-8
819
HO
W T
O T
RA
CK
AH
UR
RIC
AN
EAl
way
s ke
ep y
our r
adio
s tu
ned
to a
loca
l sta
tion
sinc
e th
ey g
ive
regu
lar &
relia
ble
bulle
tins
Whe
n a
hurri
cane
form
s ra
dio
stat
ions
in B
arba
dos
will
prov
ide
its e
ye p
ositi
on b
y la
titud
e an
d lo
ngitu
de. (
For
exam
ple,
latit
ude
12.5
deg
rees
nor
th a
nd lo
ngitu
de 4
0.6
degr
ees
wes
t).W
hen
the
stat
ions
bro
adca
st a
hur
rican
e ad
viso
ry, u
se th
e ch
art b
elow
to n
ote
the
perti
nent
info
rmat
ion.
The
n m
ark
the
loca
tion
of th
e hu
rrica
ne o
n th
e tra
ckin
g ch
art.
AH
urr
ican
e W
atc
his
pos
ted
for B
arba
dos
whe
n a
hurri
cane
or a
n in
cipi
ent h
urric
ane
cond
ition
pos
es a
pos
sibl
eth
reat
to th
e is
land
. AH
urric
ane
Wat
ch d
oes
not i
ndic
ate
imm
edia
te d
ange
r. H
owev
er, s
afet
y pr
ecau
tions
requ
iring
mor
e th
an 1
8 ho
urs
to c
ompl
ete,
sho
uld
be s
tarte
d im
med
iate
ly.A
Hu
rric
an
e W
arn
ing
is is
sued
whe
n fo
reca
ster
s be
lieve
the
isla
nd w
ill su
ffer
hurri
cane
dam
age.
AH
urric
ane
War
ning
is is
sued
whe
n w
inds
are
exp
ecte
d to
sus
tain
74
mph
or h
ighe
r with
in 2
4 ho
urs
or le
ss. W
hen
a H
urric
ane
War
ning
is is
sued
list
en to
you
r rad
io s
tatio
ns c
ontin
uous
ly a
nd ta
ke a
ll sa
fety
pre
caut
ions
.A
Tro
pic
al
Sto
rm W
arn
ing
is is
sued
for a
reas
not
dire
ctly
affe
cted
by
the
hurri
cane
. ATr
opic
al S
torm
War
ning
isis
sued
whe
n po
ssib
le s
usta
ined
win
ds w
ithin
the
rang
e of
39
to 7
3 m
ph a
re e
xpec
ted
with
in 2
4 ho
urs
or le
ss.
Your
bes
t pro
tect
ion
is to
sta
y in
form
ed b
y ge
tting
the
deta
ils fr
om ra
dio
bulle
tins.
Whe
n an
y di
sast
er th
reat
ens,
TH
E N
AT
ION
is
your
por
t in
the
stor
m. A
s so
on a
sa
hurri
cane
is b
rew
ing
in o
ur a
rea,
you
get
on-
the-
scen
e co
vera
ge fr
om T
HE
NA
TIO
N’s
awar
d-w
inni
ng re
porte
rs a
nd p
hoto
grap
hers
. Get
all
of th
e st
ory
– th
ew
hole
pic
ture
– in
TH
E N
AT
ION
and
SU
N.
CH
EC
KL
IST
FO
R A
HU
RR
ICA
NE
WA
RN
ING
Batte
ry-o
pera
ted
radi
oPe
ts in
side
or o
ther
wise
pro
tect
edFu
nctio
nal f
lash
light
sLo
ose
outs
ide
obje
cts
stor
ed o
r sec
ured
Batte
ries
for r
adio
and
flas
hlig
hts
Firs
t aid
kit
with
ban
dage
s, a
dhes
ive ta
pes,
Cand
les
and
plen
ty o
f mat
ches
antis
eptic
s, e
tc.
Car t
ank
filled
with
gas
olin
eEx
tra s
uppl
y of
pre
scrip
tion
or e
mer
genc
yEx
tra ic
e in
free
zer
med
icatio
nsG
as fo
r you
r coo
king
unit
Tree
bra
nche
s tie
d or
cut
Extra
drin
king
wate
rTV
ant
enna
take
n do
wnTu
bs a
nd s
inks
fille
d wi
th w
ater
Plen
ty w
ell s
tock
ed: c
anne
d go
ods,
milk
, dry
Fire
ext
ingu
isher
cere
al ,
baby
food
, pow
dere
d dr
inks
and
lots
of E
VE p
rodu
cts
Mo
vem
en
t
Fo
recast
Po
sit
ion
Decreasing
Increasing
Direction
Direction
ForwardSpeed(mph)
Forward Speed(mph)
Central Pressure(inches Hg.)
Maximum Wind(mph)
Longitude (°W)
Latitude (°N
)
Date
Tim
e
(CD
T)
Sto
rm N
am
e
Inte
nsit
y
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 11
IMAGINE the chaos and panicwhich would ensue if a keyfacility like the QueenElizabeth Hospital (QEH) wasrendered inoperable due to thepassage of a major storm.
There would be a totalcollapse of medical services inBarbados if our major publicmedical treatment facility wereto be seriously damaged.
Such a scenario has notescaped the consideration ofmajor agencies like the PanAmerican Health Organisation (PAHO) and its goal is toensure that nothing like that every happens.
Throughout the region, member countries have beenworking to make hospitals safe from disasters.
Great strides madeOver the last ten years, great strides have been made
to ensure that hospitals and other key medical facilitieswould not fail during disasters but continue to function inan emergency with trained health workers to deliverneeded care.
In recent times, countries in the Caribbean have beenworking to improve the safety of their health facilities.
As a first step, several states trained a number ofprofessionals to apply the Hospital Safety Index (HSI) – atool to evaluate structural, non-structural and functionalaspects of health facilities.
The HSI provides an indication of a hospital or healthfacility’s ability to continue functioning in emergencysituations, based on structural, non-structural andfunctional factors, including the environment and thehealth services network to which it belongs.
By determining a hospital’s safety index or score,decision-makers should get an idea of its ability torespond to major emergencies and disasters. The HSIdoes not replace costly and detailed vulnerability studiesbut given that it is relatively inexpensive and easy toapply, it is regarded as an important first step towardprioritising a country’s investments in hospital safety.
Determining a hospital’s safety index is regarded as a new way of managing risk in the health sector.
It allows a medical facility's level of safety to bemonitored over time. Safety no longer has to be a ‘yes-or-no’ or an ‘all-or-nothing situation’, it can instead beimproved gradually.
The HSI exercise was developed via a lengthy processof dialogue, testing and revision, over a two-year period,initially by the Pan American Health Organisation’sDisaster Mitigation Advisory Group (DiMAG) and laterwith input from other specialists in Latin America and theCaribbean.
How is it done?There are a number of steps involved in calculating a
health facility’s safety index.
Safe hospitals checklistFirst, an evaluation team uses a standardised safe
hospitals checklist to assess the level of safety inapproximately 145 areas of the hospital.
With the checklist completed, the evaluation teamcollectively validates the scores and enters them into ascoring calculator, weighting each variable according toits relative importance to a hospital’s ability to withstanda disaster and continue functioning.
The safety score is calculated automatically and thefinal safety index score places a health facility into one ofthree categories of safety, thereby helping authoritiesdetermine which facilities most urgently needinterventions:
Category A is awarded to facilities deemed able toprotect the lives of their occupants and likely to continuefunctioning in disaster situations.
Category B is assigned to facilities which can resist adisaster but whose equipment and critical services mightbe at risk.
Category C denotes a health facility where the livesand safety of occupants are deemed at risk duringdisasters.
Calculating the safety score allows health facilities toestablish maintenance and monitoring routines and lookat actions to improve safety in the medium term.
A total of eight countries – Montserrat, Dominica,Grenada, Anguilla, St. Vincent, St Kitts, Nevis, andBarbados have applied the Index.
After applying the HSI, health facility managers wereable to create safety improvement plans for the hospitalsand prioritise needs for making the facilities safer.
Five out of eight hospitals created safety improvementplans and some countries wasted little time in
implementing strategies outlined in the plans. Caribbean countries also trained senior staff in
interpreting and executing hospital emergency plans and a few facilities carried out simulation exercises totest them.
12. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
HSI helping healthfacilities to measure up
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 13
ALTHOUGH the 2010Atlantic Storm Season isyet to live up to its billing asa period of significantactivity, the potential formayhem before theNovember 30 close is stillforemost in the minds ofreinsurance executives.
It has been acceptedthat hurricane and floodrisks are on the rise in theCaribbean – a situationwhich could threaten theregion’s developmentprospects.
This disclosure wascontained in a study on theeconomics of climateadaptation (ECA) in theregion.
Released by theCaribbean Catastrophe RiskInsurance Facility (CCRIF) it has beengiven thumbs up by the internationallyknown reinsurer, Swiss Re.
In a nutshell, every year hurricanesthreaten the Caribbean, putting lives andproperties at risk from wind damage,storm surge and flooding.
The devastation left by a severeweather system could have the potentialto set back years of development gains inthe region.
Although the 2010 Atlantic hurricaneseason so far has been more like atropical island breeze, its relativetranquillity could be deceiving – thingscould change in a matter of hours.
Hurricane risks are high in theCaribbean, and climate change couldserve to make matters worse.
According to the preliminary findings ofthe ECA study covering eight Caribbeancountries, economic losses from stormsand floods already add up to six per centof gross domestic product (GDP) per year.
Without additional adaptive measures,increasing climate risks could cost someCaribbean states up to nine per cent oftheir annual national income by 2030.
The good news is that severaladaptation initiatives are out there to helpprepare for the worst.
The study also showed that someCaribbean countries can cost-effectively
avert up to 90 per cent ofexpected losses byconstructing sea walls,enforcing building codes andimplementing other preventive measures.
When it comes to protecting localcommunities against the financialconsequences of very rare but severeweather events, insurance – or risktransfer – generally proves to be the mostcost-effective adaptation measure.
Swiss Re supports the CCRIF as thelead reinsurer and has developedinnovative insurance solutions for severalcountries in the region, the Gulf of Mexicoregion and most recently for the Americanstate of Alabama.
The methodology used in theCaribbean study was devised and testedby a consortium of public and privatepartners, including Swiss Re.
It gives decision-makers data to helpin constructing a portfolio of affordableadaptation measures.
Swiss Re contributed analytical inputsto the ECA project in the Caribbean aimedat quantifying climate risks.
So far, the study covers Anguilla,Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados,Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Dominica,Jamaica and St. Lucia.
ECA studywelcomedby reinsurer
ACCORDING to early findings of the ECA study ofeight Caribbean countries, economic losses fromstorms and floods add up to six per cent of grossdomestic product per year. (FP)
IF THE FARM is in a lowlying area, you may needto identify an evacuationsite on higher ground (iffeasible) well in advance.• Choose best location forsheltering animals ifevacuation is not feasible.• The decision to keeplarge animals in a barn(pen) or in open field isentirely up to you.However, if you decide to
keep them in a barn thestructural strength of thebarn should beconsidered.• Remove items from theaisles and walls of thebarn.• Have all animalspermanently identified (forexample, ear tagged ortattooed), and make achecklist of all farmanimals.
• Keep a well stockedlivestock first-aid kit.• Store enough feed andwater for about a week.• Store feed at least twofeet above ground in adry, flood-resistant area.• Identify food and watersupply sources that donot depend on electricity,unless there is a back-up
generator.• Secure temporaryfencing materials to permitquick fence repairs afterthe disaster.• Ensure all loosematerials on your farm aresecurely stored away ortied down.• Prune trees/windbreaksnear livestock houses.
• Secure importantdocuments, including farmrecords, in waterproofcontainers.• Remove and securecovering ofgreenhouses/nurseries.• Secure inputs –fertilisers, pesticides andso on – ensure that theyare stored away from feed
and planting materials.• Secure planting materialfor the post-hurricaneperiod.• Harvest crops which arealready marketable.• Secure beehive boxesand take into building.
14. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
Tips to getyour farmstormready
A SECTION of Dominica where the hurricane crop has been destroyed by Hurricane Georges. (FP)
• Continued on next page.
• Remove irrigation lines.• Clean and clear allwatercourses.• Disconnect all electricalfixtures on farm.• Secure farm machineryand tools• Farm machinery shouldbe filled with fuel(chainsaws, tractors,trucks.)
48 hours before the hurricane• Make a check list of allfarm animals.• Give identification marksto all farm animals.Secure inputs such aslivestock feed andmedicine, to last at leastone week.• Stock pile feed andplace at least two feetabove ground in dry,flood-resistant area.• Remove cattle and smallruminants from low-lyingareas and take to higherground.• Secure importantdocuments in water-proofcontainers.• Farm buildings andlivestock sheds should bestrengthened or checkedand secured as much aspossible.• Store enough water forlivestock to last at least
one week.• Collect eggs.• Prune trees/windbreaksnear livestock houses.• Prune trees andbranches that are directlyover livestock houses andother farm building.
What to do after the hurricane• Visit evacuation site(where applicable) to seeif animals are safe andwell.• Stay clear of fallenpower lines and notify thepower company ofdowned lines• Check for injuredlivestock and treataccordingly.• Round-up stray animals.• Burn or bury anycarcasses.• Assess damage tolivestock, buildings andequipment.• Check for damagedfences and repairimmediately.• Cut and clear fallentrees from fence lines, butstay clear of fallen powerlines.• Remove sharp objectsand debris from pasturesand holding pens.• Milk cows and collectany eggs from poultry.• Salvage any useablecrops.
• Do not use food thathas been in contact withflood water for your familyor livestock.
Fishermen and otherboat operators• Listen and takeseriously all weatheradvisories issued by theMeterological Office• Make earlyarrangements to get yourvessels to safety.• Don’t wait to the lastminute to get the boat outof the water• Secure all equipmentand fishing gear toprevent damage or theft.• Do not remain on thevessel to ride out thestorm or hurricane.• Secure vessels at themooring or harbour.• Do not leave vessels onthe beach – it can bedamaged by stormsurges.• Liaise with the FisheriesOfficers on site to havethe vessel removed by theTractor Service.• Make sure there isadequate rope berthing.• Provide additionalfenders to prevent boatsfrom crashing into eachother.• Ensure that the boat isnot in danger from falling
trees or branches.• Inform all other fishersat sea through radio,flares and othercommunication signals.
48 hours before a hurricane• If time permits, retrievefish pots.• Secure boats away fromthe reach of waves.• Ensure that the boat isnot in danger from fallingtrees or branches.• Remove and secure allgear and safety supplies.• Secure any fish potsthat were retrieved.
36 hours before ahurricane• Move all large vessels tosafe harbour.
• Haul boats to approvedlocations• All hauling of boats will
cease at least six hoursprior to strike of ahurricane.
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 15
LIAISE with the Fisheries Officers on site to have the vessels removed prior to the arrival of a storm. (FP)
Warnings key tofisherfolk safety• From Page 14.
HE WAS a trained civilengineer, and Herbert Saffirwho passed away inNovember 2007, will alwaysbe remembered for hiswork with former director ofthe National HurricaneCentre (NHC) RobertSimpson in developing theSaffir-Simpson hurricanescale, used by forecastersthe world over.
A strong advocate ofeffective building codes,hebegan developing the five-category hurricane scaleduring the late 1960s.
He worked with Simpsonon the project and theirsystem of rating thedestructive capability ofhurricanes on the basis ofwind speed and stormsurge moved into commonusage during the mid-1970s.
Saffir’s innovation rankedstorm destruction by type,from Category 1 – wheretrees and unanchoredmobile homes receive theprimary damage – toCategory 5, the completefailure of roofs and somestructures.
The five descriptions ofdestruction were thenmatched with the sustainedwind speeds that wouldproduce the correspondingdamage.
Discussing his work priorto his passing, he said hisinterest in storm damagebegan in 1947 when he wasassistant county engineer inDade County, Florida.
Saffir had responsibilityfor doing some of theengineering aspects of thebuilding code at that time.
According to him, thedocumentation was reallynot adequate, given thattropical storms andhurricanes were a way oflife in the state.
Most of the buildingcode work was galvanisedby hurricanes of 1926.
According to the pioneer,the devastation caused bythose systems wastremendous and the scaleof damage in present-daydollars,was possibly muchworse than HurricaneAndrew.
In Saffir’s view, eachhurricane that came addedto the impetus for revisingand making building codesbetter.
In 1960, HurricaneDonna moved up the coastand that was the first time,standards were in place ina building code for things
like windows, glass, slidingglass doors etc.
According to him, eachtime a hurricane came in,new issues showed up – aswas the case withHurricane Andrew in 1992.
“The way I got into thehurricane scale, was backin the 1970s, I had acommission from theUnited Nations, of allpeople. They wanted astudy on low-cost housingthroughout the world thatwas subject to tropicalcyclones, hurricanes.They’re the same in Indiaand Australia and Japanand Korea and SouthFlorida, even though theyall have different names.
“And that’s when I gotinto setting forth rules forbuildings, small buildings,residential buildings, and Ialso set up the hurricanescale because there was noscale that corresponded tothe earthquake scales,”said Saffir.
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According to theengineer what hedeveloped with Simpson,was based on the possiblestructural damage whichcould occur from eachcategory of storm goingfrom 74 miles per hour –the minimum type of storm,up to 155 miles per hour.
“I gave the scale to theNational Hurricane Centerfor their use. Bob Simpson,who was the director of thehurricane center at thetime, added a possible tidalsurge, storm surge,possible flooding for eachcategory. Now theemergency managementpeople tell me they don’tknow how they got alongwithout the scale. They useit as far as Australia, inmodified shape.”
Saffir also believed thatthat South Florida, Miami-Dade County, BrowardCounty amd MonroeCounty have the greatestlikelihood of having storms.
Asked about the likelycost increases which wouldoccur if construction wereasked to comply withmeaningful standards, theengineer indicated that youshould not expect to getsomething for nothing.
“Whenever you adopttougher standards, you’regoing to increase the costof construction. There’s nogetting away from that. You
can design for a nuclearblast. You could havedesigned the federalbuilding in Oklahoma Cityto resist the bomb blast ifyou had wanted to put themoney into it. We madeestimates here in Miami-Dade County, and ourpretty detailed estimates forone- and two-storeyresidences showed youwould increase [the cost] byabout five percent. So weaccepted it, you wouldhave to live with that.”
Reflecting on thedevastation whichHurricane Andrew caused,Saffir said it was clear therecommendations of thebuilding standards were notbeing followed.
“Andrew was a stormthat exceeded the designcriteria that we used. Infact, it still exceeds thestorm design that we useand what the state buildingcode would use. We reallyaren’t taking care of everypossible eventuality. There
was a long period ofcomplacency [and] to abuilder, to a contractor, timeis money. They’re always ina rush to get a jobfinished.”
He also predicted thatone day, worse couldcome.
On the value ofevacuating communitiesahead of a severe storm,the engineer said people inareas of possible tidal surgewould do well to get outwhile there was time.
16. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
The scale of hurricanesHerbert Saffir one of the minds behind measuring storms
HERBERT SAFFIR withthe scale he helpedcreate wit, RobertSimpson. (Internet Image)
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 17
IT HAS not beendominating headlines oflate but the debatesurrounding the potentialimpact of global warmingis still very much alive.
Just a few years ago,global warming was thesource of much politicalcontroversy.
As scientificknowledge has grown,the debate has movedaway from whetherhuman activity isresponsible towardsquestions of how best torespond.
Signs that the earth iswarming have beenrecorded all over theglobe.
Just go and researchthermometer records keptover the past century anda half and see howtemperatures havechanged.
Around the world, theEarth’s averagetemperature has risenmore than one degreeFahrenheit or 0.8 degreesCelsius over the lastcentury, and about twicethat in parts of the Arctic.
This doesn’t mean thattemperatures haven’tfluctuated among regionsof the globe or betweenseasons and times of day.
If one averagestemperatures all over theworld over the course ofa year, it should becomeobvious that the mercuryhas been creepingupward.
While we can’t look atthermometers going backthousands of years, wedo have records whichcan help us figure outwhat temperatures andconcentrations were likein the distant past.
Trees store informationabout the climate in theplace where they grow.Each year, trees growthicker and form newrings. In warmer andwetter years, the rings arethicker.
Keys to the past are
also buried under lakesand oceans.
Pollen, creatures, andparticles fall to thebottom of oceans andlakes each year, formingsediments which preserveall these bits and pieces.
The latter contain awealth of informationabout what was in the airand water when they fell.Scientists reveal thisrecord by inserting hollowtubes into the mud tocollect sediment layersgoing back millions of years.
For a direct look at theatmosphere of the past,scientists drill coresthrough the Earth’s polarice sheets.
Tiny bubbles trappedin the gas become piecesof the Earth’s pastatmosphere, frozen intime.
Gases a sign
That’s how we knowthat concentrations ofgreenhouse gases sincethe industrial revolutionare higher than they’vebeen for hundreds ofthousands of years.
Computer models helpscientists to understandthe Earth’s climate, orlong-term weatherpatterns.
These models alsoallow scientists to makepredictions about thefuture climate.
They simulate how theatmosphere and oceansabsorb energy from thesun and transport itaround the globe.
Factors that affect theamount of the sun’senergy reaching Earth’ssurface are what drive theclimate in these models,as in real life.
These include thingslike greenhouse gases,particles in theatmosphere – such as from volcanoes – and changes in energycoming from the sun itself.
Global warming an increasinglyhot topic
SCIENTISTShave overthe yearsbeenincreasinglystudying theearth, itsclimate and itsinhabitants in order tounderstandglobalwarming. (FP)
THE ONLY AtlanticHurricane Hunter flight togo down while flying amission did so onSeptember 26, 1955.
A United States NavyP2V Neptune weatherreconnaissance airplanecode name ‘SnowcloudFive’, flying out ofGuantanamo, Cuba, waslost during HurricaneJanet, 300 milessouthwest of Jamaica.
Snowcloud Five waspart of Airborne EarlyWarning Squadron Four(VW-4), based at theJacksonville, Florida NavalAir Station.
Carrying a crew of nineand two reporters fromthe Toronto Daily Star,Snowcloud Five took offat 06:30 hours local time,and began its initialpenetration intoHurricane Janet at analtitude of 700 feet. At thetime of the crash,Hurricane Janet was aCategory Four hurricanewith 145 miles per hourwinds. The aircraft sentback the followingtransmission and wasnever heard from again:
“Navy reconnaissanceflight 5u93, observationnumber five, at 1330 GMT(8:30 am EST), Monday,located at latitude 15.4degrees north, longitude78.2 degrees west.Oblique and horizontalvisibility 3-10 miles,altitude 700 feet, flightwind 050 degrees (north-east) 45 knots (52 mph).Present weather lightintermittent showers, pastweather same, overcastand some scud below,surface pressure 1 003millibars (29.62 inches),surface winds 050degrees (ne), 45 knots (52mph). beginningpenetration.”
An intensive air and seasearch operation combeda 300 by 200 mile regionof the Caribbean for themissing airplane over aperiod of five days.
In all, 60 aircraft, sevenships, and 3 000personnel were involved.
No trace of SnowcloudFive was ever found.
Dr Hugh Willoughby,
former director of NOAA’sHurricane ResearchDivision, speculated onthe fate of SnowcloudFive in a review ofStormchasers whichappeared in the February,2003 issue of the Bulletinof the AmericanMeteorological Society:
He noted that: “Theenlisted aerographer’smate was left behind thatday in order toaccommodate theToronto Daily Starreporter. This key crewmember was normallyresponsible for keepingthe pilots aware of altitudeby calling out readingsfrom the only radaraltimeter on board,located at the aerologist’sstation. Without him, theaerologist, Lt. WilliamBuck, had to do twodemanding jobs: He hadto simultaneously read thebouncing, flickeringaltimeter and peer downfrom his Plexiglas bubblein the nose to discern thewind from streaks of foamon the sea. It is easy toimagine how he mighthave lost control of thesituation as he struggledto keep the airplane safelyabove the waves andflying perpendicular to thewind towards the eye.”
Personnel lost on themission were:
Lt. Cmdr. Grover B.Windham Jr. ofJacksonville, Florida,plane commander.
Lt (jg) Thomas R.Morgan of Orange Park,Florida, navigator.
Lt (jg) George W.Herlong of Yukon, Florida,co-pilot.
Aviation electronicstechnician second class,Julius J. Mann, 22, ofCanton, Ohio.
Lt (jg) Thomas L.Greaney, 26, ofJacksonville, FL,navigator.
Aviation mechanic firstclass, J. P. Windham, Jr.,32 of Jacksonville, Florida.
Airman Kenneth L.Klegg, 22, of Cranston,Rhode Island.
Aviation ElectronicsMan First Class Joseph F.
Combs of Forest Park,New York.
Aerologist William A.Buck, of Jacksonville,Florida.
Toronto Daily StarReporter Alfred O Tate.
Toronto Daily StarPhotographer DouglasCronk.
18. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
HURRICANE JANET is one of the few storms to havehad a direct impact on Barbados. It was in pursuit ofHurricane Janet that the storm hunter SnowcloudFive vanished. (FP)
Hurricane hunterlost chasing Janet
SEPTEMBER 19, 2010. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. 19
Hurricanes harmful to health
THE death and destruction which hurricanes – likeKatrina – leave in their wake can have extremelyadverse effects on some people. (FP)
HURRICANES are extremely traumaticevents.
The death and destruction which theyleave in their wake can have extremelyadverse effects on some individuals,particularly those suffering from chronicconditions.
Shock and denial are typical responsesto traumatic events and disasters, usuallyshortly after the event, both are normalprotective reactions.
Shock is a sudden and often intensedisturbance of the emotional state whichcan leave individuals feeling stunned ordazed.
Denial involves one not acknowledgingthat something very stressful hashappened, or not experiencing fully the
intensity of the event. As the initial shock subsides,reactions will vary from one person toanother but certain responses are typical.
Feelings may become intense andsometimes unpredictable. A person mightexhibit signs of greater irritability thannormal inclusive of dramatic mood swingsand episodes of depression.
Thoughts and behavioral patterns maybe affected by trauma. Repeated and vividflashbacks have been reported by severalpeople. They may occur for no apparentreason and may trigger physical reactionssuch as rapid heart beat or sweating.
People who suffer from traumaticflashbacks, may find it difficult toconcentrate or make decisions and may
easily become confused.Recurring emotional reactions are
common among trauma sufferers.Reactions may be triggered by sights andsmells which give reminders of preparingfor or responding to the hurricane.
Interpersonal relationships often becomestrained under such circumstances.
Greater conflict, including frequentarguments with family members and peers,would be common.
By contrast episodes of withdrawal andisolation could come to the fore.
Physical symptoms – headaches,nausea and chest pain – may accompanythe stress to the point where medicalintervention could be required. Pre-existingconditions could worsen too.
IS THERE a connectionbetween the onset of thehurricane season andmigraine headaches?
Based on theobservations ofresearchers in Florida,there could very well be a link.
According to thefindings, living in Floridacould be difficult forindividuals who suffer withmigraines and other typesof headaches.
The results of the studyreleased about two yearsago, suggested that a fallin in the barometricpressure could bring on amigraine attack.
During the hurricaneseason in Florida,residents experience a
greater chance of tropical storms and
thundershowers than theydo hurricanes.
There may be lowpressure systems sittingover the state with noactual bad weather.
According to theresearch, it is not so muchthe rain which triggers themigraine attack as it is thelower barometric pressure.
It was reported thatduring a string of sixtropical storms andhurricane fronts over a six week period, manypatients who normally hadperfectly good control of their migrainesexperienced their worstattacks ever.
Extensive research was
carried out to try anddetermine why changes in barometric pressure,temperature and humiditycould have such a profound triggeringeffect on migraine.
Unfortunately nodefinite conclusion hasbeen reached.
More headaches
The effects on theoutdoor environment bythese weather systems, inFlorida, seemed to have aprofound effect onheadache suffers.
Not only did thechange in weather triggerheadache attacks but sodid an increase in pollen,mold and fungus spores.
Patients can oftenclaim that they are feelingthe effects of sinusheadaches.
Truth be told, bona fidesinus headaches belong inthe same category aschances of winning thelottery, one in 14 million –true sinus headaches arerare.
According to theresearchers, what thepatients actually felt was a milder form of migraineheadache, brought on byweather, pollen and moldstimuli.
Migraine headachesymptoms include: nasalcongestion, sinuspressure, sensitivity tolight and nasal drainage.While they might be
termed sinus symptomsby sufferers, they are partof the migraine syndrome.
Because patientsfrequently take sinusmedications to help orstop their headache.
This, unfortunately,reinforces the mistakenbelief that they aresuffering from sinusheadaches.
The fact is, sinusmedications have a similarheadache relief effect asdo those of the morespecific migraine drugs.
About fifty per cent of migraine sufferers find that changes in weather will trigger their headaches when thehurricane season June 1to November 30 arrives.
20. SUNDAY SUN SPECIAL. SEPTEMBER 19, 2010
Printed and Published by THE NATION PUBLISHING Company LTD., Nation House, Fontabelle, St. Michael, Barbados. Telephone (246) 430-5400
The weather can be a headache – literally
RESEARCHERS in Florida have suggestedthat lower barometric pressures – normallyassociated with the hurricane season – couldbring on migranes in headache sufferers. (FP)
