Storms activityand atmospheric circulation

Galina V.Surkova, Alexandre V.Kislov

WP1. High resolution hindcasting of storm surges in the key coastal regions of European Russia (Barents, Black, Baltic and Caspian Seas) and analysis of the relative importance of different ocean-related factors for associated coastal flooding.

WP6. Development of the regional risk assessments of extreme coastal hazards in different regions under present and future climate conditions.

Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory

Automatic classification of atmospheric circulation types accompanied by storm surges

Recognition of these atmospheric circulation patterns in climate projections

Regional projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones in 21st century

Purpose of the work

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I L I C H E V S KO d e s s a _ G M O

T I L I G U L O - B E R E Z A Y N K AO C H A K O V

G e n i c h e n s kK h o r l yS T E R E G U S H I YR A Z D O L N O E

C h e r n o m o r s k o y eY e v p a t o r i y a _ p o r t

A L U S H T A

S T R E L K O V O E

P h e o d o s i y a

M I S O V O EK e r c h _ A M S G + S c h o o lO P A S N O E

Y a l t aS e v a s t o p o l , M G SH E R S O N S S K I Y _ M A Y A KN I K I T S K I Y _ S A D

A n a p aG E L E N D Z I K

D J U B G AT U A P S E

S o c h i _ a g r oS O T C H IG A G R YP I C U N D A

G U D A U T AS U H U M YE S H E R AO C E M C I R I

P O T Y _ p a r k

B a t u m i _ M S GB A T U M Y

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P E S N O YG O G O L S KZ A B U R U N E

O S T R O V _ K U L A L YF o r t - S h e v c h e n k o

A K T A U

B E K D A SK A R A - B A G A Z - G O L

G U V L I A J KK r a s n o v o d s k

C h e l e k e n - p o r t + A M S GO G U R C I N S K I Y - O S T R O V

G a s a n - K u l i

G A N J U S K I N OA s t r a k h a n

L I M A NK A S P I Y S K I YI S K U S S T V E N N I Y _ O S T R O V

T U L E N I Y - O S T R O V

M a k h a c h - K a l a _ G M O

I Z B E R G

H A C M A SS I A S A N

S U G A I TB A K UB a k u _ G M O

N E F T J N I EA R T E M A _ O S T R O V

J I L O Y _ O S T R O V

S V I N O Y _ O S T R O VA l y a t

N E F T E C A L A

L e n k o r a n _ A S

Meteorological observations

Reanalysis

ERA-Interim (0,75x0,75 lat x long, 4-daily)

NCEP-NCAR (slp 2,5x2,5; u,v 1,9x1,9; 4-daily)

Calendar of events

Casp

ian

sea

17 19

Observations on coastal meteorological stations

and 2) known sea storms

events

the most outstanding storm events

1) All events wind speed V>=15m/s

Beaufort scale

…7. High wind,moderate gale 13,9 – 17,1 m/s 8. Gale, fresh gale 17,2 – 20,7 m/s9. Strong gale (storm) 20,8 – 24,4 m/s 10. Storm 24,5 – 28,4 m/s11. Violent storm 28,5 – 32,6 m/s12. Hurricane >33 m/s - hurricane

Storm warning – 25 m/s

Sir Francis Beaufort (1774 – 1857)

But …

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Casp

ian sea

Wind speed frequency

all events with V>=15 m/s (purple)Extreme events/strong storms (yellow)

Sections of the coast

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2

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5

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7Factors

1. Exposition to the wind2. Relief

Nov-March April-Oct

Monthly frequency, v>=15 m/s (1961-1990)

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Nov-March April-Oct

Wind roses for v>=15 m/s (1961-1990)

All stations

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Storms:

Total events, V>=15 m/s (1961-1990)

Month All events

5 days durationand more

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2 26 17

3 30 15

11 31 15

12 27 17

Sum 144 88Number of all events with V>=15 m/s (1961-1990) - >950

western part of the sea

eastern part of the sea

total

Number of extreme storms - 17

and so on …

Before Circulation patterns for extreme storm events

Climate: Mean sea level pressure (1979-2000, Atlas ERA-40)

L

HH

Circulation patternsfor extreme storm events

I (14 events) II (5 events)

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R e f e r e n c e V e c t o r s

0 . 5 1 4 . 0

2011, October, 18 2011, February, 13

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4 0

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6 0

7 0

8 0N

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L

L

LH

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N

H

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R e f e r e n c e V e c t o r s

0 . 5 1 4 . 0

Monthly frequency, v>=15 m/s (1961-1990)Nov-March

April-Oct

Wind roses for v>=15 m/s (1961-1990)

Casp

ian sea

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40

50

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80N

В

НН

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 E3 0

4 0

5 0

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ВВ

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1981, November 4

1952, November 11

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N

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5R e f e r e n c e V e c t o r s

0 . 5 1 4 . 0

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N

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5R e f e r e n c e V e c t o r s

0 . 5 1 4 . 0

1995, March 12

Typical circulation patternsfor extreme storm events

Casp

ian sea

Done by now

•Routine work with initial data •Classification of synoptic situation types accompanied by storm surges

In progress

•Automatic classification of atmospheric circulation types accompanied by storm surges•Regional projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones in 21st century

Thank you !