Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle1
NREL Planning & Analysis
NCSLJune 2009
Strategic Energy Analysis Center
Strategic Energy Analysis Center
Energy Forecasting
& Modeling Group•Energy Economics
•Energy System Planning
•Risk and Uncertainty Modeling
•Energy Infrastructure Planning
Technology Systems and Sustainability
Analysis•Technoeconomic
Assessment•Life Cycle Assessment
•Infrastructure & Systems Analytics
•Energy/Water Analysis•Resource Use
Optimization
Market & Policy Impact Analysis•Electric Regulation &
Policy•Transportation Market,
Fuels, & Policies•Green Power & REC
Markets•Economic Impact
Analysis•Advanced Financial
Analytic Methods•International
•R&D Program Benefits Assessment
•Portfolio and Risk Assessment
Strategic Energy Analysis Center
Doug Arent, Director
Data Analysis & Visualization
•Geospatial Analytics•RE & EE Data Warehouse•Integrated Resource Assessment•Advanced Visualization
NREL Strategic Energy Analysis
Integrated analyses that advance the understanding of the value of technology in the context of dynamic global, national, and local markets, policies, energy resources and loads, and infrastructure.
Analysis Across the Framework• Resource Analysis
– Where are the resources and how much do they cost?– How much resource can contribute to a sustainable energy pathway?
• Technology Feasibility Analysis– Which technologies have the greatest potential for economic success?– Where should research efforts be focused?– What are the necessary infrastructure systems and how much do they cost?– What technology combinations enhance market adoption and sustainability?
• Energy Market Analysis– What are the market adoption scenarios?– What are the impacts, costs, and financial risks for market transformation?– Which resource/technology combinations meet the needs of the various markets?
• Policy Analysis– What are the impacts of various policy options on market adoption?– What are the impacts of various policy options on technology evolution?– How do policies at different scales interacts and form a comprehensive policy?
• Sustainability Analysis– What are the sustainability impacts of different resource/technology options? – What are the trade-offs between different energy pathways?– What are the geographic differences in sustainability impacts?
Analysis done across the framework permits a more comprehensive understanding of the various energy options.
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Resource Use Optimization
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Understanding Energy Resources and potential impact of technology advances on national goals
• Example: Solar resources in the Southwest. Resource (technical) potential to “economic” (e.g. commercially feasible) to “accessible” and links to transmission access, markets, pricing, technology adoption (learning) and thus technology advances….
• Gross irradiance is baseline: Analysis to refine to “economic potential” to accessible and linkage to technology adoption, learning and advances in technology.
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Market Development Insights: ReEDS- Regional Energy Deployment Systems Model
A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S.
Designed to estimate market potential of energy technologies in the U.S. for the next 20 – 50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
ReEDS Model:Detailed Treatment of Wind Grid Integration Issues
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Transmission Constraint Analysis
2004
2007
2005
2006
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Modeling
“The Grid”
Loads
Reserve Margins
Ancillary Services
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
PHEVs* Can Increase Wind Penetration
* Assumes 50% PHEV-V2G penetration by 2050
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Many (most?) major energy market drivers are highly uncertain and outside the scope of most energy market models
Nuclear emergesTechnology AvailableToo cheap to meter
Gas declines PIFUA prohibits
Nuclear declineInterest rates3-Mile Island (1979)Chernobyl (1986)Regulation
Gas increases(50+ GW added in 2002)PIFUA changedPURPACC efficiencyLow price through deregulation
Coal declinesCAAAderegulation
63 GW Science & TechnologyAdvances, particularlyFor Basis ScienceAre also highly uncertain
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
What Might a Stochastic Model Show You?
Incorporating uncertainty into an energy market model conveys significantly more information than a single point estimate
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Systems….
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Environmental Analysis: Life Cycle Assessment
non-renewable
energy
non-renewable materials
emissions
energy
final product
net emissions
emissions
emissions
emissions
emissions
emissions
emissionsraw materials
raw materials
energy
energy
energy
energy
energy energy
waste materials
Intermediatefeedstock
Intermediatefeedstock
Intermediatefeedstock
Extractionprocess
Process Process
Process
Wastedisposal
Extractionprocess
Processof
Interest
Life cycle system boundary
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Sustainable Energy Use
• Energy choices have global implications:– Greenhouse gas emissions– Water resource distribution– Mineral consumption– Equipment manufacturing and transportation
• Renewable energy technologies should be more sustainable– Need to verify this is true before it’s found out that we’ve missed
some important impacts– Renewables are not a one-size-fits-all solution
• Resources geographically distributed• Energy use patterns vary globally• Growth rate and installed infrastructure may limit choices
– Economic optimization of the use of geographically-distributed resources
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Sustainability Analysis
• Components of sustainability analysis– Environmental– Economics and financing– Externalities costs
• Question being answered:– What are the sustainability metrics for the blends
of technologies available to meet different energy needs, given varying resource availabilities and development status?
Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Policy Context: RPS Analysis, The Bingaman Bill
Example State Compliance Portfolio under RPS
NREL Planning & AnalysisStrategic Energy Analysis CenterNREL Strategic Energy AnalysisAnalysis Across the FrameworkResource Use OptimizationUnderstanding Energy Resources and potential impact of technology advances on national goalsMarket Development Insights: ReEDS- Regional Energy Deployment Systems ModelReEDS Model:�Detailed Treatment of Wind Grid Integration IssuesSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle ModelingPHEVs* Can Increase Wind PenetrationMany (most?) major energy market drivers are highly uncertain and outside the scope of most energy market models�What Might a Stochastic Model Show You?Systems….Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Sustainability AnalysisPolicy Context: RPS Analysis, �The Bingaman Bill
