STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR EDUCATION

A forward looking approach on the future of learning

Beris Gwynne

Education for Peace in a Multi-Religious ContextGeneva, 10th December 2018

High Level Political Forum On Sustainable Development: 2019 Focus on SDG 4 and links to other SDGs

■ The timing of this initiative to promote discussion on “Education for Peace in a Multi-Religious Context” is extremely significant.

■ UN-DESA/ Division for Sustainable Development Goals (DSDG), is co-leading the thematic review of SDG 4 which will be under review during the 2019 High-level Political Forum focusing on the theme Empowering people and ensuring inclusiveness and equality. The review is structured to identify progress made and challenges encountered in the implementation of SDG 4, and also to assess interlinkages with other SDGs 8, 10, 13, 16 and 17

– Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

– Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

– Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries

– Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

– Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

– Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

■ As a central part of this review, the Global Education Meeting was held in Brussels from 3 to 5 December 2018 to take stock of where we are in terms of progress towards SDG 4; to share knowledge about success stories, good practices and challenges; to identify particular areas of concern; and to suggest ways forward in terms of policies, partnerships and coordinated actions at all levels.

Establishing a Culture of Peace and Sustainable Development - at the heart of UNESCO’s mandate

“Education shall be directed toward the full development of the human personality and to the strengthening of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. It shall promote understanding, tolerance and friendship

among all nations, racial or religious groups and shall further the activities of the United Nations for the maintenance of peace.”

Article 26, The Universal Declaration of Human Rights

Since its inception, UNESCO priorities have included training and research in sustainable development as well as literacy and skills for life, human rights education, inter cultural dialogue/competence, skills for peaceful relations, good governance, the prevention of conflict and peace building, and Holocaust remembrance.

■ Knowledge of rights and freedoms is considered a fundamental tool to guarantee respect for the rights of all. UNESCO’s work in human rights education is guided by the World Programme for Human Rights Education.

■ In addition to its earlier work on on Culture & Religion for a Sustainable Future, UNESCO partners with the World Conference on Religions for Peace

■ UNESCO is concerned by the rise of racism, xenophobia and intolerance, and considers that education is essential to strengthening the foundations of tolerance, reducing discrimination and violence. Launched on 18 January 2012, the UNESCO-USA-Brazil project “Teaching Respect for All” aims to design a curricular framework to fight racism and promote tolerance, which countries can adapt to their respective contexts and needs.

■ UNESCO recognizes that teaching the lessons of the Holocaust is fundamental to establishing respect for human rights, basic freedoms and the values of tolerance and mutual respect. UN Member States are encouraged to develop educational programmes to transmit the memory of the Holocaust to future generations so as to prevent genocide from occurring again. UNESCO promotes these learning materials and provides a platform for institutions, teachers, students and interested parties to access resources on Education for Holocaust Remembrance.

Establishing a Culture of Peace and Sustainable Development - at the heart of UNESCO’s mandate (2)

In addition,

■ UNESCO’s Interreligious Dialogue programme, an essential component of Intercultural Dialogue, aims to promote dialogue among different religions, spiritual and humanistic traditions in a world where conflicts are increasingly associated with religious belonging.

■ International cooperation is promoted through programmes on the management of transboundary sites such as World Heritage sites, biosphere reserves and geoparks, and of transboundary water resources, as well as Water for Peace programmes such as From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP). UNESCO is leading the United Nations International Year of Water Cooperation 2013(link is external), to promote deeper cooperation to tackle the rising demand for water access, allocation and services.

■ Several international projects established under the auspices of UNESCO aim to promote solidarity and peace in the Middle East through scientific cooperation. These include one of the most ambitious research facilities in the Middle East, known as SESAME (Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and Applications in the Middle East), and the Israeli-Palestinian Science Organization (IPSO).

■ Within the context of its intergovernmental mandate and universal membership, UNESCO has focused its work in science on issues of global concern requiring multinational collaboration such as in the fields of freshwater resource management, ocean health, climate change, renewable energy, natural disaster reduction, biodiversity loss, and capacity building in science, technology and innovation.

■ But with so much “activity”, how satisfied are we with progress in “education for peace”, given competing agendas, short (donor) concentration spans and current challenges?

Accelerating Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity"Business as usual" is not an option.”

■ Club of Rome: Limits to Growth (1968) to Come On (2018)

■ Sustainable Development: Stockholm (1972) to Rio (1992), Johannesburg (2002), Rio (2012)

■ Biodiversity, Desertification, Climate Change, Mitigation, Adaptation (Kyoto to Paris)

■ Children, Gender, Population and Development and the Millennium Development Goals

■ Disaster Risk Reduction (Sendai) and World Humanitarian Summit (Istanbul)

■ Trade and Development, Investment and Indebtedness

■ Failures in governance (local to global): tax avoidance/Tax base erosion, Corruption

■ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) / Agenda 2030

■ Demographics, Inequality and Human Mobility (including urbanisation)

■ Technology, AI and robotics and the Future of Work

■ Violent extremism and the Future of War

“Problems cannot be solved with the

same mind set that created them.”

Albert Einstein

Learning and the Future

“Those who don’t learn from the past are doomed to repeat it”

.

Why Strategic Foresight?

■ Creates a neutral space for multi stakeholder creativity, imagination, speculation – no blaming – no right answers

■ Facilitates a deep dive into authoritative analyses, beyond headlines or tweets in terms of how we got to where we are, Challenging assumptions and revealing world views, misconceptions, gaps

■ Takes the long view on where we’re going, helping to make sense of complexity, accessing a range of tools and techniques (complexity or systems thinking, adaptive management, co-created partnerships etc)

■ Reinforces an informed sense of urgency while re-igniting optimism with regard to human agency to shape how the world “could be”

■ By working backwards (back-casting), it enables the discovery and design of preferred, alternative futures with new narratives, new metaphors, new strategies and systems – new modalities for partnering, creative use of technology and innovative financing

UNESCO: Learning to live together

■ Serving as a laboratory of ideas, UNESCO is called to tackle today’s

challenges and prepare for those of tomorrow, as well.

■ Keeping an eye on tomorrow is one of the guiding principles of UNESCO,

where the foresight function plays an essential part in identifying possible

futures and exploring new paths for action in all its fields of competence.

■ Anticipation and foresight are interdisciplinary activities aiming at

enriching the international public debates.

■ Collective intelligence knowledge creation helps to crystalize thinking and

experimentation “outside the box”.

UNESCO: Towards Anticipatory Leadership (Learning to Use the Future More Effectively)

■ The borders of the mind, dividing economic from social phenomena or one country

from another, exist as lived experience. In the present, right now, crossing these

borders can be sources of joy, of bloodshed, of understanding.

■ The future is different – future experiences have not yet happened and so borders

in the future are easily redrawn, forgotten or even invented.

■ This means that anticipation, the way humans imagine the future, is a powerful tool

for seeing today’s borders in different ways – ways that could be more sustainable,

equitable and peaceful.

■ Futures Literacy Labs

From Futures Literacy to Collective Intelligence, Knowledge Creation and Anticipatory Leadership

■ Facilitating a common understanding where we are and how we got

here

■ Interrogating current assumptions, world views, systems, narratives

and metaphors

■ Imagining/envisioning where we might be 30, 40 or 50 years from

now – the known and unknown

■ Developing plausible scenarios based on best understanding of

current and foreseeable trends

■ Actively re-aligning current world views, strategies and systems and

planning transition strategies for implementation

Definition of a used future?

A practice that continues even though it is no

longer linked to the broader vision or strategy

or the changing world, preventing the

emergence of alternatives, delaying uptake of

potentially important opportunities.

Sohail Inayatullah

Is the current approach to “education” futures-fit?

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Farm Security Administration: Homeless family, tenant farmers in 1936. (Photo from the Franklin D. Roosevelt Library, courtesy of the National Archives and Records Administration.)

Weston-Super-Mare and Dresden in ruins after aerial bombing, July 1942 and February 1945

Civil War in the Horn and in Central and West Africa

Violent conflict in South East Europe, UkraineEquivalent levels of sustained violence in societies in Latin and Central America

War in the Middle East, in Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Yemen) and Central Asia

Korea, India/Pakistan/Kashmir, Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Myanmar,

Millions of people killed, injured, development gains reversed, infrastructure destroyed, the fabric of human society damaged, and seeds sown for the next round.

Disarmament efforts slipping with the arms trade in conventional weapons (legal and illegal) and a resumed arms race, to create more “advanced” “autonomous” weapons, space force

Nuclear non proliferation agreements unravelling

European Refugee Crisis?Poorer countries host most of the forcibly displaced (UNHCR)

■ According to a new UNHCR study, most of the 3.2 million who were driven from their homes in the first half of 2016 found shelter in low- or middle-income countries.

■ An estimated 362,000 refugees and migrants risked their lives crossing the Mediterranean Sea in 2016, with 181,400 people arriving in Italy and 173,450 in Greece. In the first half of 2017, over 105,000 refugees and migrants entered Europe.

■ Over 647,000 Rohingya refugees have fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar since 25 August 2017

■ More “officially recognised” refugees and displaced than ever before (nearly 70 million) but just the tip of the iceberg in terms of “people on the move” and likely to intensify.

■ Growing numbers of displaced putting short and longer-term hospitality to the test and presenting new sets of challenges but also opportunities in education

Human intelligence Embracing complexity and ambiguity

Shaping the future of people and planet

• What are the implications of a failure to implement Agenda 2030 and achieve the SDGs?

• What would business “unusual” look like? What are required “paradigm shifts”?

• Do we seriously think it’s possible to achieve such radical changes in behaviour?

• Do we have the necessary analytical tools to move from incrementalism and improvement to true innovation

• What would be the enablers and inhibitors of such changes?

• What would it mean to replace the current “used future” in relation to education?

• How do we incentivise this shift? How would we measure transformation?

• Are we willing to try a strategic foresight approach to the complex of issues encountered in relation to “education for peace in a multi religious context”?

21st Century livelihoods

There will be plenty of jobs in the future: You just won’t be able to do them

The World Economic Forum has said robots

and AI could replace 5.1 million jobs by 2020

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/plenty-jobs-future-you-just-wont-able-do-them-caroline-fairchild/?trackingId=7AwcK27U6qhU12QY2Sq0Fw%3D%3D

Recommended top skills 4th Industrial Revolution jobs and success in managing disruption in the future of “work”

Equity in Education - Breaking Down Barriers to Social Mobility

■ In times of growing economic inequality, improving equity in education becomes more urgent. While some countries and economies that participate in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) have managed to build education systems where socio-economic status makes less of a difference to students’ learning and well-being, every country can do more.

■ Equity in Education: Breaking Down Barriers to Social Mobility shows that high performance and more positive attitudes towards schooling among disadvantaged 15-year-old students are strong predictors of success in higher education and work later on.

■ The report examines how equity in education has evolved over several cycles of the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). It identifies the policies and practices that can help disadvantaged students succeed academically and feel more engaged at school.

■ Using longitudinal data from five countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States), the report also describes the links between a student’s performance near the end of compulsory education and upward social mobility – i.e. attaining a higher level of education or working in a higher-status job than one’s parents.

■ But who’s world view? What of learning and the search for meaning?

21ST CENTURY COMPETENCIES

Power and Profit? or Precaution, (shared) Prosperity and Peace?

Gerd Leonhard on The future of technology and humanity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uo1FlcQENk

What kind of world do we want?

What value do we place on relationships

in society?

On individual and collective rights?

On responsibility in society, government

and business?

Where might there be opportunities for

strategic alliances?

Observers or actors?

21st century livelihoods

■ Informality is an important characteristic of labour markets in the world with millions of economic units operating and hundreds of millions of workers pursuing their livelihoods in conditions of informality. Informality exists in all countries regardless of the level of socio-economic development, although it is more prevalent in developing countries.

■ More than 60 per cent of the world’s employed population earn their livelihoods in the informal economy. The 2 billion women and men who make their living in the informal economy are deprived of decent working conditions., with women and children and youth especially vulnerable

■ Evidence shows that most people enter the informal economy not by choice, but as a consequence of a lack of opportunities in the formal economy and in the absence of other means of livelihood.

■ The informal economy comprises more than 60% of the global labour force and more than 90% of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) worldwide. (more than 2 billion)

http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_627189/lang--en/index.htm

http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_626831.pdf

WORLD MAP BY PERSONAL WEALTH

World by population

World by births

WHO HAS THE POWER?

Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google-Alphabet, Net-flix and Amazon

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What will “learning” look like in the 21st Century

1. End of shelf life for many of our current “institutions”

• Theoretical, Organisational, Regulatory, Theological (TORT)

• Primacy of learning at home, in faith communities, even at schools and universities challenged by alternative narratives /competing pedagogy

2. Education as “life long learning” (Latin “educare”, German “bildung”, English “formation”) Learning as a two way process, reducing unequal access to quality education, bridging generations and cultures

3. Killer disconnect between what is “taught” and what is needed and between efforts to promote rights, good citizenship and peace to children and young people when this is set aside by adults – requiring much greater investment in “education for peace” for adults (Parliamentarians, Military, Civil Servants)

4. Work in progress to “modernize”

• content (fit for purpose) re-balancing emphasis on life skills, rights and responsibilities for citizenship

• curriculum design (led by UNESCO-IBE research on neuroscience, the impact of technology on learning and pedagogy (digital dividend or digital divide) and

• delivery (in space and time with exponential increase in “mobility” (2019 Global Education Monitoring Report - Migration, displacement and education: Building bridges not walls )

• extensive work underway in the humanitarian sector in relation to education in emergency settings and the effects of deprivation and trauma on cognitive development

5. Increasing interest in strategic foresight in schools, universities, in UN Organisations and Specialised Agencies (UNICEF, UNHCR, IOM, OHCHR, FAO, UNECE) and in key sectors (CIRAD).

Obstacles?

■ Carelessness in assessing risks and lack of sophistication /depth in understanding the

past and the systems that reinforce repetition

■ Over-estimating human ingenuity, under-estimating the scale and complexity of the

challenge

■ Human nature, expressed as paralysing anxiety regarding the scale of the challenges and

speed of change, or fear of implications for individual or organisational power/positions

■ Confusion, misconceptions resulting from poor communication or disappointment at

failure to demonstrate practical benefits from knowledge and skills transfer for futures

thinking

■ In financially difficult times, take up of additional “bottom lines”, applying ethical and

rights-based standards is slow and appetite for experimentation is low.

■ There are few incentives for risk taking for transformational change and a pre-disposition

to plan from where we are instead of from where we want to be.

Obstacles?

■ Leadership failures (amoral, short term, populist), perpetuating

naivety and/or complacency

■ Asymmetry in multi-stakeholder engagement (Government, Business,

Epistemic Communities, Media, Society) with contrary impact on

– World views, narratives, support systems

– Knowledge and experience and how these are mediated given power

differential

– Cross cultural communication and interpretation gaps (not only cultural,

but disciplinary, sectoral, professional, technical etc)

– Allocation of human, technical and financial resources

– Identification of performance indicators to incentivise accountability for

timely progress towards agreed goals

Ptolemy, circa 150 AD.

Hecataeus, 500 B.C.

Albrecht Dürer, 1471-1528

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Potential■ According to Pew Research Center's 2012 global study of 230 countries and

territories, 16% of the world's population is not affiliated with a religion, while 84% are affiliated.

■ Local to global, even greater investment in greater understanding between and within faith communities is needed to build relationships based on respect and to strive to act together in multilateral initiatives, embracing diversity, acknowledging and working together on areas of difficulty.

■ Without evidence of such relationships, efforts to stand for and to promote education for peace in multi-religious contexts will be compromised.

– ‘Welcoming the Stranger: Affirmations for Faith Leaders’” was the culmination of a UNHCR Dialogue on Faith and Protection convened in December 2012 by then UN High Commissioner for Refugees, now United Nations Secretary General, Mr António Guterres.

– The Charter for Faith-Based Humanitarian Action was endorsed at the World Humanitarian Summit by more than 160 faith-based actors (FBOs and religious Leaders), representing all major faith traditions and different geographical regions. The charter presents concrete commitments from religious leaders and other humanitarian actors to increase the impact of faith-based actors in reducing humanitarian need and suffering, and to call for their inclusion within policy- and decision-making at all levels of humanitarian response.

– Oct 16-19 Rome - Recently, ACT Alliance, ADRA International, Anglican Alliance, Arigatou International, Islamic Relief Worldwide, International Partnership on Religion and Development (PaRD), Joint Learning Initiative, Mennonite World Conference, Micah Global, Salvation Army, Seventh Day Adventists, World Evangelical Alliance, World Council of Churches co-organized the Faith Action for Children on the Move Forum. Forum Partners believe that by working together we can end violence against children in all its forms.

– "Respecting Mother Earth and caring for ecological systems, the most vulnerable communities and all future generations" is an Interfaith submission to Talanoa Dialogue 2018, at the 24th Conference of Parties (COP24) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2-15 December 2018.

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A NEW NARRATIVE FOR COLLECTIVE ACTION BY CIVIL SOCIETY (FAITH ALIGNED AND SECULAR) IN

PARTNERSHIPS WITH GOVERNMENTAL AND PRIVATE SECTOR ACTORS

I21st Century competencies (2)

■ From 2020 Hindsight . . .

. . .TO 2050 FORESIGHT.

The future is an asset, a resource,

a narrative to be employed.

Tomorrow’s Universities initiative

Global Futures Geneva Perspectives:

Learning for Resilience in the 21st Century