Strategic ForesightFrom theory to practice

in the MENA regionIran Focus

Victor Vahidi MottiUniversity of Trento

18 May, 2016

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Content

• Section one: Concepts, Theory and Methods (10 min)• Section Two: Applications and Practice (50 min)

1.Middle East and North Africa overview (10 min)

2.Iran Focus (40 min)• Section Three: Q&A and Discussion (60 min)

• http://webmagazine.unitn.it/evento/sociologia/9402/strategic-foresight

Download the audio recording

You can listen to the audio record of this presentation at the Google Drivehttps://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2xvUx3z5dl-TU42aS12QkpNb28/view?ts=573c847d

Section oneConcepts, Theory and Methods

(10 min)

Definitions and overview Futures Studies defined by Dr. Eleonora Barbieri MasiniEleonora Masini and Knut Samset (1975)“Futures studies... is a field of intellectual and political activity concerning all sectors of the psychological, social, economic, political and cultural life, aiming at discovering and mastering the extensions of the complex chains of causalities, by means of conceptualisations, systematic reflections, experimentations, anticipations and creative thinking.Futures studies therefore constitute a natural basis for subnational, national and international, and both interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary activities tending to become a new forum for the basis of political decision making.”- Masini E, Samset K. Recommendations of the WFSF General Assembly.- WFSF Newsletter June, 1975, p. 15.

Definitions and overview Anticipation defined by Dr. Roberto Poli (2015)An anticipatory behavior ‘uses’ the future in its actual decisional process. To fix ideas, anticipation includes two mandatory components: a forward-looking attitude and the use of the former’s result for action.A weather forecast in itself is not anticipatory in the sense used here.Watching a weather forecast and as a consequence taking an umbrella before going to work is instead an anticipatory behavior. 

Definitions and overview  Strategic Foresight in Slaughter’s (2002) definition:  [It] is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organizationally useful ways; for example: to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy; to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management. 

Some Key Global Organizations

• UNESCO: Anticipation and Foresight• UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Systems• World Futures Studies Federation• Association of Professional Futurists• Millennium Project• Think Tanks, e.g. RAND Corporation

My Divergent and Convergent Framework: foresight-hindsight > insight > action

• Explorative, System Dynamics, Deep Holistic Insights

• Normative, Value Focused Thinking, Strategic Priorities

The normative future path represents the identification of strategic priorities extracted from the means and fundamental objectives, values and vision of an organization which is done through Value-Focused Thinking method and interviews with senior managers. The exploratory future path represents the complex system chains and loops within alternative futures (Collapse, Growth, Discipline and Transformation) through the mental model of each analysts and also based on the building blocks of the futures (events, trends, images and actions) in different space layers (global, national and organizational) and STEEP areas (social, technological, economic, environmental and political).

foresight-hindsight > insight > action

1.  Subscribe to or create and maintain a professional database or repository for environmental monitoring in three planetary, national and organizational layers.

2. Pick a scanning hit form the database and summarize it according to Lasswell’s communication model.

3. Ask each member of the team to identify key variables in the summary and then link them all in chains of perceived cause and effect. This will show the roots and consequences of that issue within the rationale of each four alternative futures or scenarios. A system dynamics software graphic environment such as Insight Maker could be helpful.

4. Provide a list of key systems insights including critical chains and reinforcing and balancing loops.

5. Search the web for a relevant image that helps build a telling story or useful metaphor for transformative change.

6. Assess the positive, neutral, or negative impacts of systematic holistic consequences and implications on all the strategic preferences of the organization.

7. Suggest actions and/or solutions separately for each responsible department in the organizational structure and label those actions into a category which includes continuous improvements, radical fundamental change, hedging or insuring, and stabilizing.

8. Use the organization accounting system and its key items to give an assessment of the costs and benefits of the proposed actions.

9. Report the executive summary of the above to the top management to decide on the proper executive measures to move forward.

10. Go to step 2 and continue

Section TwoApplications and Practice

(50 min)

Middle East and North Africa Overview(10 min)

United Arab EmiratesDubai Foundation of the Future

300 Million USD, 1 Billion Dirham24 April 2016

http://mostaqbal.ae/http://01government.com/

The Foundation, called ‘house of wisdom’, was launched by His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, on Sunday. Shaikh Mohammad also approved the setting up of a Dh1 billion Future Endowment Fund to invest in innovation and perceiving the future. Shaikh Mohammad also approved the Dubai Future Agenda as a strategic framework for the Foundation. Speaking on the occasion, Shaikh Mohammad said that shaping the future and making it is no longer a theoretical concept but a key factor for countries to achieve competitiveness in the global arena.

 

United Arab Emirates

April 25, 2016 . gulfnews.com >>> On his personal twitter account, Shaikh Mohammad said that by 2030, 25 per cent of all transportation trips in Dubai will be smart and driverless, which comes as part of Dubai's strategy to become the smartest city in the world and achieve a sustainable economy in the UAE.

May 06, 2016. engineering.com>>>Dubai Seeks to 3D Print 25 Percent of Its Buildings by 2030. The country will begin by increasing the use of 3D printing in the construction industry by 2 percent starting in 2019, with the belief that 3D-printed construction will be valued at approximately USD$817 million by 2025. In terms of medicine, the leader sees the local industry producing teeth, bones, organs, devices and hearing aids all with 3D printing in the future, anticipating a total value of approximately USD$463 million by 2025. For the consumer sector, Sheikh Mohammed sees a value of approximately USD$762 million by 2025, with the local industry producing 3D-printed household items, optics, jewelry, games and even fast food.

 

Dr. Noah Raford

Advisor at the Prime Minister's Office – UAE

PhD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning.Large scale participatory futures systems : a comparative study of online scenario planning approaches

This dissertation explores the role that participatory online collective intelligence systems might play in urban planning research. Specifically, it examines methodological and practical issues raised by the design and use of such systems in long-term policy formulation, with a focus on their potential as data collection instruments and analytical platforms for qualitative scenario planning.

https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/68444

Qatar• The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies will launch Istishraf : The

Annual Review of Arab Future Studies in 2015. With this new annual publication, the ACRPS responds to the pressing need for a rigorous academic publication devoted to forecasting and future studies in the Arab region. Thought forecasting and future studies have existed in the Arab region for decades, the corpus of material now published in the field allows for a critical, methodical approach to improve the quality of output. In addition to its academic function, Istishraf will further serve to promote development in the Arab states and strive toward better understanding of both internal and external factors affecting Arab development.

• The Project to Forecast the Future of the Arab Homeland• Alternative Arab Futures• Egypt 2020• Syria 2025• Qatar National Vision 2030• Jordan 2025• Israel 2020

Al-Istishraf 

Futures Studies encapsulated in a rich word. The meaning for this Arabic word includes a cloud of notions, and if you translate it into any particular word you may lose the linguistic richness of the Arabic word: Going up on highest ground or guard tower to overlook or oversee the landscape from the above. Raising your feet or putting your hand above the eyebrows to better see the distant horizon. Making conjectures about or investigating or aligning with the future. To be prospective and sustain such an outlook. Have a window to completely see through it into an open or closed space. Expecting something with enthusiasm and excitement. Looking forward and hoping. Knowing and making sense. The word has family resemblance also with and is very close to the notion of excellence, pinnacle, nobleness, respect, honor, and take pride, or welcoming wholeheartedly a guest or a stranger.

Al-Istishraf

Turkey

• YIRCoF ’11• Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresight and Futures• August 24 - 26, 2011, Istanbul• "Theory Building in Foresight and Futures Studies"• YIRCoF ’09• Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresight• September 4 - 6, 2009, Istanbul• "Methodological Issues in Foresight Studies"

Saudi ArabiaSaudi Vision 2030, a post-petroleum future, a shift to investment, to tourism, to logistics as major sources of income Strategic depth in the Arab and the Muslim world, leading power of investment, and a critical link among the three continents

King Salman of Saudi Arabia has said that an agreement has been reached with Egypt to build a bridge over the Red Sea connecting the two countries (Asia to Africa link)

APRIL 28, 2016, New York Times>>>

A pledge to reduce dependence on oil sales, which has made the economy extremely vulnerable to plummeting oil pricesTo decouple the economy from oil without at the same time eroding living standardsto sell shares in the state oil giant, Saudi Aramco, funnel the money raised into a public investment fund, and to shift vital services like education, health care and airports to the private sector

Iran vision 2025

• Adopted in 2005• "Islamic Republic of Iran in 2025 is a developed country that ranks first economically,

scientifically and technologically in the region (of South West Asia ).... with constructive and effective international interactions"

• The Iranian planning experts and officials used internal and external environmental scanning and scenario planning in their deliberations.

• There were three scenarios primarily based on assumptions about the futures of the economic growth rate.

• The first assumes that during the next 20 years, countries in the South West Asia region will develop by an average of their 10-year record. To rank first in this vulnerable scenario Iran has to develop by 5.6% annual growth rate.

• The second assumes that during the next 20 years, countries in the region will develop by their top annual growth rate. To rank first in this scenario Iran has to develop by 11.5% annual growth rate.

• And the third assumption was that in the next 20 years, countries in the region will develop by an average of their top record and average of their 10-year record. To rank first in this scenario Iran has to develop by 8.6% annual growth rate. The latter assumption was both plausible and preferable for the scenario developers and therefore such an assumption substantiates the official 20-year vision document

Balance of PowerDr. Walid Abdel Hay, professor of international relations and futures studies at Yarmouk University, Jordan, a leading scholar of futures studies in the Arabic language

A 2013 Arabic article published on Al Jazeera Center for Studies website on the futures of Iran in 2020.

Uses a multidimensional index for hard (as opposed to soft) power ranking in the region calculated in terms of : Population, Agricultural product, Human Development, Area, GDP, Growth Rate, Military Expenditure, Military Power, Applied Research in S&T

1. Turkey, 2. Iran, 3. Saudi Arabia and Israel, 4. Egypt

The Economist Intelligence Unit, Political Instability Index, indicating social unrest potential

1. Turkey, 2. Iran, 3. Saudi Arabia, 4. Israel, 5. Egypt

Egypt

• WFSF Fellow & Founding Member Emeritus Professor Samir Ghabbour coordinated the Cairo LEALA Pilot. He worked with Cairo University and the Institute of African Research & Studies (IARS) to organize a one-day "Conference on the Future of African World Heritage" in November 2013 at the IARS 

Egypt

A Future Wheel for the impact of climate change

UN

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992, then entered into force on 21 March 1994. The UNFCCC objective is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system“

• The Paris Agreement -- dubbed COP21 was adopted by all 196 Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2015. In the agreement, all countries agreed to work to limit global warming to "well below" 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels.

Morocco

• Mahdi Elmandjra, (1933- 2014) was a leading Arab, Muslim, and Moroccan futurist, economist and sociologist

• Morocco INDC (intended nationally determined contribution):• An unconditional 13% reduction on business as usual emissions

by 2030, with a conditional 32% reduction if Morocco receives “new sources of finance and enhanced support”

• The 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) to the UNFCCC is expected to take place November 7 - 18, 2016. Morocco offered to host this COP.

• In June 2015, the Government of Morocco submitted its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC, announcing targets of reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 32% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU) projected emissions and reaching over 50% of installed electricity production capacity from renewable sources by 2025.

• The plant will have a 500 megawatt (MW) generating capacity….It is expected to supply electricity to 1.1 million Moroccans, increase Morocco's installed capacity of renewable energy from 22 MW in 2013 to 522 MW, a 2,272.7% increase, and cut carbon emissions by 760,000 tons per year.

http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/morocco-advances-indc-targets-with-opening-of-solar-power-plant/

IRES in Morocco  

Considering the context of rapid globalization and the several transitions of the national environment, Morocco has decided to contend with this complexity as a whole and to develop anticipation-based expertise. It is within this framework that the Royal Institute for Strategic Studies (IRES) was established in November 2007.

Key points about the future agenda of the region

• Security and Political Stability (Nationally) • Balance of Power (Regionally)• Science and Technology Leadership (Regionally to Globally)• Post Oil Economy, move to Renewable Energies (Glonacally)• Climate Change, mitigation and adaptation (Globally)

Why USA disengagement?

A Conjecture

• Less dependence on the Middle East oil

• Avoid imperial overstretch

• Prepare a hostile strategy to contain China's rise

Iran Focus(40 min)

A note on the calendar

The official calendar of Iran: Solar Hijri calendar

To convert the Solar Hijri year into the equivalent Gregorian year add

621

Example:

1395 = 2016 - 2017

 

A quick review of some indicators

GDP per capita MENA and IRAN

1989 1990 1991

1992

1993

19941995

1996

1997

1998

19992000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

20062007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10,000

20,000

GDP per capita MENA and IRAN

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

ا*ی*را*ن*

سعودی عرب*ستان*

مصر

ت*رکیه

Inflation in Iran

Growth Rate of Iran

1338

1340

1342

1344

1346

1348

1350

1352

1354

1356

1358

1360

1362

1364

1366

1368

1370

1372

1374

1376

1378

1380

1382

1384

1386

1388

1390

1392

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

Planning for the near future

In addition to its vision 2025, Iran’s administration uses a “central” five-year planning system, the sixth five year plan aims at a 8% growth rate for (1395-1399)( 2016-2020)Key areas of needs for help: Water shortage, growth, regional security, smuggle, technology transfer, health cover and insurance, environmental degradation, family and aging population, pension fundsPopulation 79M to 84M Target: 900,000 jobs in five years (unemployment rate is double among the educated) One digit inflation rate is an ideal (latest 12.8%, was more than 30% recently)More tax collection is also ideal (from 6.5% to 10% Tax/GDP)Less dependence on oil sale (31.5% to 22%)Fertility rate (1.7-1.8 to 1.9-2.1)Unemployment rate target: 7%Investment/GDP is high, or low productivity (need for help)

And sense making of the longer term future

Timeline of Iran 1943-2036 based on Sorokin's DynamicsIn his Social and Cultural Dynamics, his magnum opus, Sorokin classified societies according to their 'cultural mentality', which can be "ideational" (reality is spiritual), "sensate" (reality is material), or "idealistic" (a synthesis of the two). He suggested that major civilizations evolve from an ideational to an idealistic, and eventually to a sensate mentality.In my case study of Iran apparently there is an almost "decade long periodicity" in the timeline oscillating between the drive of ideas and abstracts and drive of material and tangibles.https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/timeline3/latest/embed/index.html?source=18xaZ4DMiX3jJuIfQ2m2IwL5PBZqtFVZ3Oj4DWhxx6L8&font=Default&lang=en&initial_zoom=2&height=650

Closer relationships between Iran and Italy

«Abbiamo un rapporto millenario, che ha visto anche momenti di difficoltà e tensione... Roma ne è stata un esempio», ha notato Renzi. Ma lo sguardo è al futuro. Alla cena (senza vino) era atteso l’amministratore delegato di Eni. Il presidente iraniano è desideroso di mostrare un nuovo volto del suo Paese non solo come mercato appetibile, ma anche come modello di stabilità nel caos del Medio Oriente e come perno fondamentale per gli equilibri regionali e la lotta al terrorismo.

Corriere Della Sera di Viviana Mazza, 25 Gennaio 2016

A select list of Iranian groups ready to join Italian groups

1.University of Tehran’s International Campus - Kish Island (is open to joint degrees, exchange programs)

2.MahMag World Literature. Magazine of culture, arts and humanities (Italian Iranians network of professionals)

3.Kian Sharif Group (helps knowledge-based firms via business consulting and valuation)

4.Mavara Group (provides investment insight reports, business intelligence, economic, social, cultural, technological forecasts)

5.Tadvin Niroo (industrial construction contractor company) 6.Science & Technology Think Thank of the Contemporary

World (offers services in e-learning, futures studies, general and specialized courses for professional development)

Section ThreeQ&A and Discussion

( 60 min)

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BiographyVictor Vahidi Motti, also known as Vahid Vahidi Motlagh, trained as a civil engineer at Sharif University of Technology, is the founder and editor of the website Vahid Think Tank, a member of the Executive Board of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), instructor of the WFSF-endorsed course Applied Introductory to The Art and Science of Futures Studies, member of the Editorial Board of the World Future Review scholarly journal by Sage publication, a member of the Judge Committee of the Association of Professional Futurists Student Recognition Award, co-author of the book The Future of Business, and in 2013, he received the World Futures Studies Federation’s President’s Outstanding Young Futurist Award. He is quadrilingual and reads English, Arabic, Farsi, and Italian. Was also Editor-in-Chief of The Persian Encyclopedia of Future with over 150 entries. He was an invited scholar to speak at International Conferences: a) 2011, April: Italy, Reconciling Babel: Education for Cosmopolitanism, b) 2010, November: Taiwan, Global Transitions and Asia 2060: Climate, Political-Economy, and Identity. He has translated a dozen of key foresight texts into Farsi and published widely on a huge range of different topics, from the study of the brain and consciousness, to diverse areas of technology, global issues, environmental and ecological challenges, methods of strategic foresight, and ethical concerns as they pertain to contemporary affairs and future possibilities.  Main worksThe Future of Business, Fast Future Publising, 2015An Operational Process for Organizational Foresight and Anticipation, World Future Review, 2016Evolving Cultural Identities in a Planetary Era, World Future Review, Vol 7, 2015, pp 224-229 "The futures meme: A new generation perspective", Futures, Vol. 45, January, 2013, pp 62-72• "Shaping the futures of global nonkilling society", Nonkilling Futures-Visions, 2012, p 99• "Global and placeless brains: a third culture perspective", RICOMPORRE BABELE, 2011, p 173• "Ta'wil Al-Ahaadith: A philological perspective to semantic roots of strategic foresight in ancient Arabic", Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 17 Nr. 2, December 2012, pp 101-110• "Which global prospect to bet on: rosy or gloomy", Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 16 Nr. 2, December, 2011, pp 149-154• "Asia's Exotic Futures in the Far beyond the Present", Journal of Futures Studies,Vol. 15 Nr. 2, November, 2010, pp 1-16.