Strategic Intelligence revisited

GÖRAN MARKLUND

DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

Imagine a Small Country….

Global

Societal Challenges

Source: Rockström, J. and Sukhdev, P. new way of viewing the Sustainable Development Goals. Illustration: Azote Images for Stockholm Resilience Centre

Win

Win

Win

Tax PolicyFinance Policy

Monetary Policy

Industrial PolicyLabour Market Policy

Regional Policy

Foreign PolicyTrade Policy

Migration Policy

Infrastructure PolicyIT Policy

Housing Policy

Research PolicyEducation Policy

Integration Policy

Environment PolicyEnergy Policy

Social Policy

Public Innovation Governance

Sustainable

Cities

Circular

Economy Industry

4.0

Smart

Mobility Health

Life Science

Research and Innovation

Projects, Programs, Clusters

Public Innovation Processes

Governance, Production, Procurement

Smart Regulation

Laws, Supervision, Control

Innovation Policy for System Innovation

Market Failures

(Neoclassical perspective)

Structural System Failures

(Innovation system perspective)

Transformative System Failures

(System innovation perspective)

1) Limited experimental economy*

Weak incentives, information assymetries and capability

deficincies limit ideation and experimentation

1) Infrastructural failures

Under investments in infrastructures due to big uncertainties,

high risk, big scale and long time-horizons

1) Directionality failures

Weak incentives, lack of common visions and weak actor

mobilization stop system transformation

2) Under investments in R&D and Innovation

Genuine uncertainty about results and apprpriability make

cost-benefit-calculus impossible

2) Institutional failures

Laws, property rights, regultations, trust, values, normes and

attidudes could generate negative incentives

2) Demand articulation failures Weakly articulated user and societal needs and weak demand

articulation capablilities limit system renewal

3) Negative externalities

Societally negative effects if private actors do not have

incentives to include such costs in their calcultations

3) Network failures

Weak cooperation limit knowledge exchanges, learning and

empowerment – too strong clusters could lead to lock-ins

3) Policy coordination failures

Under developed processes for multi-level policy and

horizontal policy coordination limit system renewal

4) Overexploitation of socitetal commons

Societal commons – land, water, environment – tend to be

overexploited if they are not priced

4) Capability failures

Lack of key competences, leadrership and organizational

capabilities limit absorption of new knowledge and innovation

4) Reflexivity failures Under developed systems and renewal perspectives in policy,

evaluation and policy learning limit system renewal

Source: Based on Weber and Rohracher Research Policy 41 (2012), p.1037-1047 (*Marklund)

1945- 1990- 2010-

Policy Rationales – Strategic shift

Note: Based on Geels FW. Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy 2002;31(8/9):1257–74.

System Landscape

Value Generation

Syst

em

Re

new

al

Wicked

Problems

Socio-Technical

Paradigm

Silo Organization – Power Structures

Trust – Norms – Routines – Culture

Incentives – Regulations

Path Dependent Research & Development

Mega trends

Technological – Demographical – Political

Innovative

Experiments

Su

sta

inab

ilit

y

Societal Challenges System Innovation

Example: Mobility System

Source: Geels, F.W, Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-study, p.3, Paper presented at Nelson and Winter Conference, June 12-15, 2001,

Aalborg, Denmark, organised by DRUID (Danish Research Unit for Industrial Dynamics), Research Policy and Corporate and Industrial Change.

Evolutionary Processes Evolutionary Learning

Amplify

Select

Experiment

Impact Evaluation Directionality, Empowerment, Reflexivity

Impact Evaluation Directionality, Empowerment, Reflexivity

Impact Evaluation Directionality, Empowerment, Reflexivity

”Summative”

Impact Evaluation ”Formative”

Impact Evaluation

Infogad sidfot, datum och sidnummer syns bara i utskrift (infoga genom fliken Infoga -> Sidhuvud/sidfot)

Value Generation

Syst

em

Re

new

al

Wicked

Problems

Socio-Technical

Paradigm

Silo Organization – Power Structures

Trust – Norms – Routines – Culture

Incentives – Regulations

Path Dependent Research & Development

Innovative

Experiments

Note: Based on Geels FW. Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy 2002;31(8/9):1257–74.

Challenge Driven

Initiatives

Mission Driven

Intiatives

Policy Labs

Testbeds

Small Business

Experiments

Su

sta

inab

ilit

y EU

System Landscape Mega trends

Technological – Demographical – Political

Societal Challenges System Innovation

Infogad sidfot, datum och sidnummer syns bara i utskrift (infoga genom fliken Infoga -> Sidhuvud/sidfot)

Domains for Strategic Intelligence

Source: Grin, J., Rotmans, J. and Schot, J., p.154, Transitions to Sustainable Development New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change.

In collaboration with Frank Geels and Derk Loorbach. Routledge Studies in Sustainability Transitions.

Str

ate

gic

In

tellig

en

ce

Strategic intelligence revisited for a new R&I Policy A policy maker perspective

Societal challenges are generated and sustained by highly complex and strongly path dependent relationships between behaviors, actors,

value chains, institutions, infrastructures etc. To efficiently address such challenges, system transformation would be required. However, R&I

policy is generally based on industry, sector or technological perspectives and often tend to focus on different R&I-programs or schemes. And,

R&I-policy is mostly generated and evaluated within the frameworks of only one or a few ministries, which tend to generate silo perspectives.

However, system transformation to address societal challenges could not be generated successfully by R&I-programs alone. Innovation policy

aiming at successfully address societal challenges would need to orchestrate all policy areas of importance for structures and developments

that are generating and sustaining the challenges. This would require a strategic intelligence based on a much deeper and broader systemic

understanding than what is generally characterizing analysis, reviews or evaluations used in policy strategies. As system

transformation is genuinely uncertain, with strong wicked problem features, innovation policy need

to take an evolutionary perspective and be based on evolutionary principles. This implies, among

other things, that reflexivity through evaluation need to be deeply integrated into the processes to

generate continuous learning rather than being limited to summative evaluations ex post, which is the

dominant practice.

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