• Seamless Suite of Products

• Climate Weather Linkages

Strategic Issues

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasonsYearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

Fore

cast

Lea

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me

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

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Mar

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Life

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Spa

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Spa

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Rec

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Eco

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Env

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Env

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Avi

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Seasonal Predictions

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasonsYearsYears

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fore

cast

Lea

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Models*

Global Forecast System

North American Mesoscale Model

Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS

-GFDL -WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

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Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs*

* Potential ensemble candidates

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Satellites99.9%

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFS

1.7B Obs/Day

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA Model Production Suite

MOM3

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansRTOFS/HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

ClimateForecastSystem

Regional Analysis

GSI

Global Ensemble

Forecast System(w/ Canada)

Dispersion

Air QualityWith ARL

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suitewith Code Origins

Severe Weather

Rapid Update for Aviation

Hurricane Forecasts

Global Analysis

GlobalForecasts

RegionalForecasts

Real-Time OceanForecast System

& Waves

Short-RangeEnsembleForecast

NW

HWRF

NCEP

EXTERNAL

SREF

WAV/NAM

40%60%

32%68%

77%

23%

82%

18%

40%60%

62%38%

91%

9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

50% 50%

• Increasing emphasis on Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System

• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to

hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface

radiance data• All models run within ESMF

– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales

• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

Forces for Change

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

• Computer upgrade at risk in next procurement cycle– Impacts new programmatic requirements (ISI/CFS upgrades;

HFIP; NextGen; Fire Wx; MME;…)

Issues

Ongoing Opportunities• OAR/GFDL/EMC MOM4 for climate applications and MME potential• OAR/GSFC/EMC accelerated ESMF applications• OAR/ESRL/EMC: FIM• JCSDA partnership (GMAO; EMC) leading to accelerated 4DVAR• WRF/DTC/HWTB/EMC ensemble and HFIP partnerships working to accelerate

short-range ensemble application• NOPP/Navy/EMC: Global HYCOM