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1
Semiconductor Materials Outlook
Strategic Materials Conference
Dan TracySEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group
January 14, 2010
2
Outline
Update on current market and forecast for,
Fab Materials
Packaging Materials
Summary
3
Fab Materials
4
Silicon Area Shipment Index
Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group December 2009
Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month moving average)
507090
110130150170190210230250
Jan-
98M
ay-9
8Se
p-98
Jan-
99M
ay-9
9Se
p-99
Jan-
00M
ay-0
0Se
p-00
Jan-
01M
ay-0
1Se
p-01
Jan-
02M
ay-0
2Se
p-02
Jan-
03M
ay-0
3Se
p-03
Jan-
04M
ay-0
4Se
p-04
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5Se
p-05
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
5
Photoresist Market Quarterly Sales
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$US
Mill
ions
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Global Semiconductor Photoresist Sales
Advanced Positive Negative
Source: SEMI CGMG November 2009
6
Ancillary Chemicals Market (includes developers, removal chemicals, anti-reflective coatings, and other)
104117 116
89
61
95 100
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
$US
Mill
ions
Global Anti-Reflective Coatings Market
*Total may differ slightly due to roundingSource: SEMI CGMG November 2009
Total Ancillary Chemicals
America18%
Europe9%
Japan27%
Taiwan17%
Korea16%
China5%
Southeast Asia8%
2009F = $1,144M
7
Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast
Actual Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Silicon Wafers1 12,830 11,924 7,229 9,010 10,052
Photomasks2 2,975 2,900 2,491 2,590 2,846
Photoresists 1,144 1,116 926 1,091 1,198
Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,219 1,225 1,144 1,350 1,483
Wet Chemicals4 904 923 905 941 983
Gases 3,229 3,100 2,515 2,965 3,257
Sputter Targets4 480 508 356 391 438
CMP Slurry & Pads5 1,024 1,007 897 1,092 1,218
Other/New Materials6 1,271 1,439 1,359 1,575 1,757
Total $25,076 $24,143 $17,822 $21,005 $23,232% Growth -3.7% -26.2% 17.9% 10.6%
US$ Millions
Source: SEMI January 2010
Totals may not add due to rounding
8
Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes
1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers
2. Includes captive market3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective
coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc.
4. Source is Techcet Group LLC, includes precious metals5. Estimates for IC applications only6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric
precursors, organometallic precursors, etc.7. All forecasts in current dollars8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated
Source: SEMI January 2010
9 Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2008; SEMI Forecast
75 mm
100 mm150 mm
125 mm
200 mm
300 mm
Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI.
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
F20
10F
2011
F
Mill
ions
of S
quar
e In
ches
Global Silicon Wafer Outlook by Diameter
10
2009F 2010F %$B $B Change
China 0.84 0.96 14%
Europe 1.93 2.27 18%
Japan 4.97 5.85 18%
Korea 2.77 3.27 18%
North America 3.20 3.76 18%
Taiwan 2.78 3.34 20%
Southeast Asia 1.34 1.56 16%
Total Regions 17.83 21.01 18%
Region
Regional Fab Materials Markets
2009 = $17.8 BillionTotals may not add due to rounding
China5% Europe
11%
Japan27%
Korea16%
North America
17%
Taiwan16%
Southeast Asia8%
Source: SEMI January 2010
11
Packaging Materials
12
Leadframes-Shipments return to year ago levels
Source: SEMI December 2009
Global Leadframe Shipments
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Nov
-09
Mill
ions
of U
nits
IC Discrete
13
Gold Bonding Wire:Transition to Smaller Diameters
% Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
>30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
14
Worldwide SemiconductorPackaging Materials Forecasts
Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Leadframes $3,289 $3,013 $2,586 $2,908 $2,976Organic Substrates1 6,656 7,586 6,967 7,674 8,255Ceramic Packages 1,574 1,501 1,290 1,388 1,429Encapsulation Resins 1,624 1,475 1,284 1,464 1,559Bonding Wire3 3,592 3,968 3,838 4,359 4,446Die Attach Materials4 612 588 582 650 682Others5 242 193 179 207 233
Total $17,589 $18,324 $16,726 $18,650 $19,580
% Growth 4.2% -8.7% 11.5% 5.0%
US$ Millions
Source: SEMI November 2009
15
Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecast Notes
1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates
2. Assume gold value of $660/trz for 2007, $872/trz for 2008, $920 for 2009-2011 forecast period
3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package
dielectrics5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated6. All forecasts in current dollars
Source: SEMI November 2009
16
Packaging Materials Unit Outlook
160.7
18.0
343
7,055
2010F7,4796,5737,574Organic Substrates
(K square meters)
171.3137.4158.0Mold Compound (millions of kg)
20.315.415.8Bonding Wire (billions of meters)
365300331Leadframes(billions of units)
2011F2009F2008Segment
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
17
Regional Semiconductor Packaging Materials Markets
2009 = $16.7 Billion
2009F 2010F %$B $B Change
China 2.42 2.84 17%
Europe 0.55 0.59 7%
Japan 2.71 2.84 5%
Korea 1.95 2.17 11%
Americas 0.48 0.52 8%
Taiwan 3.97 4.51 14%
Southeast Asia 4.65 5.18 11%
Total Regions 16.73 18.65 11%
Region
Totals may not add due to rounding
Southeast Asia28%
Taiwan24% Americas
3%
Korea12%
Japan16%
Europe3%
China14%
Source: SEMI November 2009
18
Trends in China:Packaging houses
- More than 15 companies are capable of substrate-based packaging technology- Seven bumping fabs with wafer size arranged from 125mm to 300mm- TSV for CIS is under mass production
Packaging Materials- China is estimated to represent about 15% of the packaging materials market in 2010- Substrate drives the growth of packaging material market in the next several years- China headquartered packaging material suppliers have made progress in developing
and manufacturing leadframes, bonding wires, mold compounds, solder balls, and plating chemicals
China Semiconductor Packaging Market
Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Packaging Market Overview (new report to be issued)
19
Summary
20
SEMI® 2009 Materials Forecast By Market Region
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia 6.79 6.90 5.99 6.74 7.12China 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.80 4.16S.Korea 6.10 5.90 4.71 5.44 5.92Europe 3.68 3.29 2.47 2.86 3.08Taiwan 8.34 7.90 6.76 7.85 8.55Japan 9.19 9.98 7.67 8.69 9.34N. America 5.25 4.93 3.68 4.27 4.63
2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
$42.47
$34.55
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: SEMI January 2010
$42.67 $42.81$39.65
21
Summary• Semiconductor Materials Market
– 2009 forecasted to decline -19% overall• -26% decline in Fab Material spending• -9% decline in Packaging Material spending
– 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth
• +18% increase in Fab Material spending• +11% increase in Packaging Material spending