Charting a New Approach

to Security Assessment

in the Americas

byIvelaw L. Griffith

Florida International University

Griffiti@fiu.edu ~~~~~

Strategic OpportunitiesStrategic OpportunitiesMiami~March 9-11, 2005

Restart, Ponder, Be Puzzled

“We need to start afresh, to relax in our gardens, emulate [Isaac] Newton and ponder the scene around us, allowing ourselves to be puzzled by those recurring patterns that seem self-evident but that somehow have never been adequately explained.” ~~ James Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy (1980)

Framework Design

Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework

Three Building Blocks (BB)BB I: Elements of StructureBB II: Core ConceptsBB III: Framework ElementsThe Framework

BB I—Structure

Anarchy & Interdependence Small Size Vulnerability Weakness & Subordination Combined effects of SS, V, W & S

undermine ability of Caribbean states to exercise agency vis-à-vis rest of world and often the region

BB II—Core Concepts

Many concepts, differing meanings

Definitional baselines needed

“Security” “Threats”

“Security”

“Protection and preservation of a people’s freedom from external military attack and coercion, from internal subversion, and from the erosion of cherished political, economic, and social values.” – Ivelaw L. Griffith (1993)

Values include Democratic choice and political stability in the

political area Sustainable development and free enterprise in

the economic domain Social equality and respect for human rights in the

social arena

“Threat” “An action or sequence of events that (i)

threatens drastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state, or (ii) threatens significantly to narrow the range of policy choices available to the government of a state or to private non-governmental entities (persons, groups, corporations) within the state.” – Richard H. Ullman, “Redefining Security” in International Security (1983)

BB III—Elements

Categories & DimensionsThreat Type, Intensity, & ArenaThreat Arena, Threats, and

Response InstrumentsInstruments, Actors, and

Security Engagement Zones

Traditional Issues

Military

Political

Economic

Non-Traditional Issues

Military

Political

Economic

Environmental

CategoriesDimensions

Figure 1 - Categories & Dimensions

Medium

Low

Peripheral External

Internal

High

Core

Threat Type Threat Intensity Threat Arena

Figure 2 - Threat Type, Intensity, and Arena

Poverty

Political Instability

Drugs

Crime

HIV/AIDS

Border & Territorial Disputes

Hurricanes

Internal

External

E, P

P, E

M, P, LE

M, LE, P

P,E

Terrorism

M, P, LE, E

M, D, P

EM, M, E

KEY:

E = Economic LE = Law Enforcement

P = Political D = Diplomatic

M = Military EM = Emergency Management

Figure 3 - Threat Arenas, Threats, and Response Instruments

Instruments

Diplomatic

Economic

Emergency Management

LawEnforcement

Military

Political

Actors

National:

•Individuals•NGOs

•Corporations

International:

•States

•IGOs•INGOs•MNCs

Security Engagement Zones

X Y

NationalBilateral

Multilateral

Sub-region

Region

Hemisphere

InternationalSystem

International

Figure 4 Instruments, Actors, and Security Engagement Zones

Figure 5- Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework

Purpose & Application To provide conceptual architecture for

explanation and interpretation of security structures, patterns, and dynamics, especially in relation to threats, actors, and responses

Heuristic device—not intended to explain each and every component of security scenario

(An heuristic device is a method or technique intended to help discover something or explain a phenomenon; something that serves as guide in experiment or inquiry. Greek in origin; comes from heuriskein, to find; same root as eureka.)

Could be applied empirically to different units of analysis: single state, sub-region, region.

Caribbean and Beyond

Framework for security analysis of the Caribbean, but not only for the Caribbean

Intended to be dynamic, not static Application elsewhere will reveal different

configurations of threats, response instruments, actors, etc.

Same region, different time will reveal different configuration of threats, salience of threats, responses, actors, etc.

Within Region ≠ of Region

Challenges within a region not always same as challenges of a region Regional security is relational Issue of salience: function of threat type

& intensity & influenced by 3 factorsNumber of states affectedDefinition of situation by relevant elitesAmount of resources invested by state

(& non state) actors

Ask, Revise, Collect

“The scholar must have the flexibility of mind to overturn old ways of looking at the world, to ask new questions, to revise designs appropriately, and then to collect data of a different type than originally intended.” ~~ Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry (1994)

Further Information

This framework is outlined in Ivelaw L. Griffith, “Understanding

Caribbean Security: Back to Basics and Building Blocks," Social and Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. (March) 2004, 1-33.

This framework is outlined & applied in Chapter 1 of Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, editor,

Caribbean Security in the Age of Terror: Challenge and Change. Kingston, Jamaica: Ian Randle Publishers, 2004.