Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization North American Economic Trends...

Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization

North American Economic TrendsConducted Via American Consumer Opinion® Online: 2000-2012

2

North America Economic Trends: 2000-20121-817-640-6166 | www.decisionanalyst.com

Copyright © 2013 Decision Analyst

Page

Preface 3

Background 5

Countries Included in Report 6

Intellectual Property 7

North America Summary 8

Economic Index—Then and Now 9

Housing Purchase Plans 10

United States 11

Canada 20

Mexico 29

About Decision Analyst 38

Contact Decision Analyst 39

Table Of Contents

http://www.decisionanalyst.com/

3



Decision Analyst Economic Index

Investment Optimism

Inflation Perceptions

Purchasing Outlook

Home Purchasing Outlook

Credit Limit

Job Availability

Graphs included in this report:

Objectives

The primary objective of this report is to present a high-level overview of important

economic trends in North America, as seen through the eyes of ordinary men and

women. This report will provide some perspective on the economies of the U.S.,

Canada, and Mexico, and what the future may portend. The data comes from Decision

Analyst’s Economic Index Survey from 2000 through the end of 2012.

Preface


4



Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index Survey is conducted monthly via the Internet

among several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The

respondents are from Decision Analyst’s proprietary American Consumer Opinion®

panel, one of the world’s largest online panels with eight million members worldwide.

The monthly data is aggregated and reported by quarter in this report. The Economic

Index is reported monthly. The margin of error is less than three percentage points,

plus or minus, at a 95% confidence level for most of the percentages.

Preface


5



Economic Index

The survey results are inputs to an econometric model that produces the Economic

Index. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator by six to 12 months for

general economic activity in each country surveyed.

When the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an

expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth

economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. However,

these guidelines vary by country.

Three-Month Moving Average

The Index numbers for Mexico are a three-month moving average to smooth month-to-

month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the

two previous months.

Background


6



Countries Included in Report

The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month in the countries shown below. The time span for this report is from January 2000 through December 2012.

U.S.Total Sample: 440,820

Began: Q1 2000

MexicoTotal Sample: 26,856

Began: Q2 2003

Canada Total Sample: 94,493

Began: Q1 2000


7



Intellectual PropertyDecision Analyst is the sole owner of these survey results. Decision Analyst grants its clients the right to review and use these results in their businesses. However, these results cannot be published, reprinted, released to the media, or posted on any website without written permission from Decision Analyst.

©



North America Summary

9



*Three-Month Moving Average

United StatesApril 2003: 109

December 2012: 101

Mexico*April 2003: 96

December 2012: 95

Canada April 2003: 107

December 2012: 97

Economic Index: Then and Now April 2003 to December 2012


10



Housing Purchase Plans

Question: In the next 12 months, which of the following are you very likely to do? Take a vacation costing more than $1,000; Buy a new PC or computer equipment for home; Buy new furniture for home; Buy a new car or truck; Remodel your existing home; Buy an existing or pre-owned home, and/or Buy a newly built home.

2%Build New Home3%

6%Buy existing or

pre-owned home

9%

9%Remodel Existing Home13%

Buy furniture23% 16%

Q4 2012Q2 2003

United States

6%Build New Home6%

4%Buy existing or

pre-owned home

4%



Q4 2012Q2 2003

Mexico

1%Build New Home3%

3%Buy existing or

pre-owned home

7%



Q4 2012Q2 2003

Canada



United States

12



59%14%

4%

24%

Employed full-time Employed part-time

Unemployed but looking Not employed outside the home

46%

14%10%

30%

United States Economic Summary

6%Believe jobs are plentiful and easy to find47%

39%Believe prices are increasing rapidly28%

27%Planning to take a vacation costing more than $100040%

January 2000:

125

December 2012:

101

Economic Index

Believe stocks and mutual funds will increase in value56% 23%

Q4 2012Q1 2000

Q1 2000

Economic Indicators

EmploymentQ4 2012

21%Do not own a credit card11%


13



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-1270

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Month - Year

Ind

ex

LowJanuary &

February 2009: 85

HighMay & June 2000:

132

Economic Index United States

While the end of 2007 was the official start of the Great Recession, the economy never really recovered from the declines in 2000. The Index has been slowly and steadily increasing for the past four years, suggesting a very slowly expanding economy.


14



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Will increase in value Will stay about the same Will decrease in value

Investment Optimism: United States

Question: In your opinion, will stocks and mutual funds increase in value, or decrease in value, over the next six months? Stocks and mutual funds will increase in value; Stocks and mutual funds will stay about the same; or Stocks and mutual funds will decrease in value.

Among Adults Aged 18+


15



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Increasing rapidly Increasing slowly Staying about the same or decreasing

Inflation Perceptions: United States

Question: In your opinion, are the prices you pay for goods and services…? Increasing rapidly; Increasing slowly; Staying about the same; Decreasing slowly, or Decreasing rapidly.



16



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Take a vacation costing more than $1,000 Buy a new PC or computer equipment for home Buy a new car or truck

Purchasing Outlook: United States




17



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Buy new furniture for home Remodel your existing home Buy an existing or pre-owned home Buy a newly-built home

Home Purchasing Outlook: United States




18



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Very close to total credit limit Somewhat close to total credit limit Not close to total credit limit Do not own a credit card

Credit Limit: United States

Question: Thinking about all of your credit cards, how close are you to the total credit? Very close to total credit limit (the maximum amount you can charge); Somewhat close to total credit limit; Not close to total credit limit; or Do not own a credit card.



19



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jobs are plentiful and easy to find Jobs are available, but you have to search for them Jobs are scarce

Job Availability: United States

Question: Currently, how plentiful are jobs in your area? Jobs are plentiful and easy to find; Jobs are available, but you have to search for them; or Jobs are scarce.




Canada

21



18%

16%

48%

18%

Very close to credit limit Somewhat close to credit limit

Not close to credit limit Do not own a credit card

11%

12%

65%

11%

Canada Economic Summary

25%Believe jobs are scarce16%


17%Plan to purchase a new PC33%

January 2000:

117

December 2012:

97

Economic Index


Q4 2012Q1 2000

Economic Indicators

Credit LimitQ1 2000 Q4 2012


22



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Month - Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: Canada

Over the past four years, Canada’s Economic Index has gradually moved upwards. The trend of the Canadian Index suggests slow growth for 2013.

HighJanuary 2006: 126

LowJanuary &

February 2009: 88


23



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Investment Optimism: Canada




24



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Increasing rapidly Increasing slowly Staying the same or decreasing

Inflation Perceptions: Canada

Question: In your opinion, are the prices you pay for goods and services…? Increasing rapidly; Increasing slowly; Staying about the same; Decreasing slowly; or Decreasing rapidly.



25



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Purchasing Outlook: Canada




26



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Home Purchasing Outlook: Canada




27



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Credit Limit: Canada

Question: Thinking about all of your credit cards, how close are you to the total credit? Very close to total credit limit (The maximum amount you can charge); Somewhat close to total credit limit; Not close to total credit limit; or Do not own a credit card.



28



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Job Availability: Canada





Mexico

30



20%

17%

18%

44%

Very close to credit limit Somewhat close to credit limit

Not close to credit limit Do not own a credit card

22%

25%28%

25%

Mexico Economic Summary

37%Believe jobs are scarce51%


27%Planning to remodel existing home22%

April 2003:

96December 2012:

95

Economic Index


Q4 2012Q2 2003

Q2 2003

Economic Indicators

Credit LimitQ4 2012


31



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Month - Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: Mexico

Despite growing problems related to drug-driven violence, Mexico’s economy appears to be closely tracking the U.S. economy. The Economic Index has trended slightly upwards for three years, hinting at slow growth in 2013.

LowOctober 2008: 75

HighNovember 2007:

108

LowAugust 2009: 75

*Three-Month Moving Average — The Index numbers for Mexico are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the two previous months.


32



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Investment Optimism: Mexico




33



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Increasing rapidly Increasing slowly Staying the same or decreasing

Inflation Perceptions: Mexico

Question: In your opinion, are the prices you pay for goods and services…? Increasing rapidly; Increasing slowly; Staying about the same; Decreasing slowly; or Decreasing rapidly.



34



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Purchasing Outlook: Mexico




35



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Home Purchasing Outlook: Mexico




36



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Credit Limit: Mexico

Question: Thinking about all of your credit cards, how close are you to the total credit? Very close to total credit limit (The maximum amount you can charge); Somewhat close to total credit limit; Not close to total credit limit; or Do not own a credit card.



37



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Job Availability: Mexico




38



About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm, serving a number of major corporations, advertising agencies, and consulting firms. The name, Decision Analyst, reflects the company's decision-oriented, analytical corporate philosophy.

The firm conducts multinational studies on an array of topics, spanning industries from packaged goods to high technology. The firm places great value on hard work, meeting deadlines, and staying within budgets. The focus of Decision Analyst’s efforts is decision-oriented marketing research and analytical consulting. Research must lead to decisions, to actions. The education and training of our staff reinforce this decision-analytical emphasis. Decision Analyst seeks the synergy inherent in combining qualitative research, quantitative research, secondary data, and advanced analytics (marketing science and operations research techniques), as required by the objectives of each research project.

Decision Analyst is a corporation chartered in the state of Texas in 1978; it is totally owned by its employees. Decision Analyst is an active member of the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO) and subscribes fully to the Code of Standards and Ethics for Survey Research specified by CASRO. Also, Decision Analyst subscribes to and supports the ethics and quality standards set forth by the Advertising Research Foundation, the American Marketing Association, the Marketing Research Association, the Marketing Science Institute, INFORMS (Institute of Operations Research and Management Science), and ESOMAR (The World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals).


Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization Copyright © 2013 Decision Analyst

Jerry W. ThomasPresident/CEO

[email protected]

Decision Analyst 604 Avenue H East, Arlington, Texas 76011

817.640.6166 ~ 1.800.ANALYSIShttp://www.decisionanalyst.com

mailto:[email protected]


Date post:	02-Jan-2016
Category:	Documents
Upload:	nathan-stafford
View:	212 times
Download:	0 times

Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization North American Economic Trends...

Documents