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STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK AS COUNTRY PROGRAMME ON CLIMATE

CHANGE INITIATIVES AND PRIORITIES FOR THE ENGAGEMENT WITH GCF

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)Islamabad, Pakistan

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)Islamabad, Pakistan

July, 2017

STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK AS COUNTRY PROGRAMME ON CLIMATE

CHANGE INITIATIVES AND PRIORITIES FOR THE ENGAGEMENT WITH GCF

Copyright © July 2017

Strategic Framework as Country Programme on Climate Change Initiatives and Priorities for the Engagement with Green Climate Fund (GCF)

Ministry of Climate Change3rd Floor, LG&RD Complex, G-5/2, Islamabad, Pakistan.Tel: +92 (51) 9224579, Fax: +92 (51) 9204126Email: [email protected], Website: www.mocc.gov.pk

Prepared by: Syed Rizwan Mehboob (Consultant) National Rural Support Programme (NRSP) Islamabad, PakistanReviewed by: Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)Designed by: Mansoor Abid

Printed by: National Rural Support Programme 7th Floor, UBL Building, Jinnah Avenue, Blue Area, Islamabad, Pakistan. Tel: +92 (51) 2822319, 2822324, Fax: +92 (51) 2822779 Email: [email protected], Website: www.nrsp.org.pk

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) | Islamabad, Pakistan | i

Strategic Framework as Country Programme on Climate Change Initiatives and Priorities for the Engagement with GCF

Executive Summary 1 1. Introduction 4 1.1. Pakistan Climate Change Country Profile 4 1.2. Pakistan Climate Change Scenario 5 1.3. Pakistan Vulnerability Profile 9 1.4. Projected Weather and Climate Changes 9 1.5. Key Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 10 1.6. Key Climate Change Threats 10 1.6.1. Water Resources 10 1.6.2. Agriculture and Food Security 11 1.6.3. Human Health 11 1.6.4. Terrestrial Ecosystems 11 1.6.5. Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems 11 1.6.6. Natural Disasters 12 1.7. Key Emitters Sectors and related mitigation challenges 12 1.7.1. Sector-wise Projection of Emissions 13 1.7.2. Overall Projected Emissions for 2030 152. Country Development Profile 18 2.1. Pakistan Development Profile 18 2.2. Key Climate Change Needs 21 2.2.1. Financial Needs 21 2.2.2. Technology needs Adaptation: 22 2.2.3. Technology needs Mitigation 22 2.2.4. Assessment of Capacity Building Needs 233. Pakistan Climate Change Policy Response 28 3.1. Pakistan Vision 2025 28 3.2. National Climate Change Policy 28 3.3. Framework for Implementation of NCCP 30 3.4. National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy 31 3.5. National Sustainable Development Strategy 2012 31 3.6. National Energy Conservation Policy (2007) 32 3.7. National Operational Strategy for Clean Development Mechanism 2006 32

Table of Contents

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) | Islamabad, Pakistan | ii


3.8. Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (Pak-INDC) 32 3.9. Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) 344. Country Agenda and GCF Engagement 38 4.1. Institutional Arrangements 38 4.2. Engagement with Donors 40 4.3. Roles and contributions of key stakeholders 43 4.4. Country Agenda and GCF Engagement 44 4.4.1. Country Projects/Programmes Pipeline 45 4.4.2. Country Project Preparation Pipeline 46 4.4.3. Country Readiness Programme Pipeline 48 4.5. Proposed Country Project Profile for GCF 50 4.6. Project Briefs for GCF Country Project Profile 535. Monitoring and Evaluation 90

List of Tables

Table 1: 15Table 2: Prioritized technologies in water and agriculture sectors 22Table 3: Capacity Building Needs 24Table 4: Summary of INDC/NDC targets 35Table 5: Relationships with existing Accredited Entities and relevant partners 40Table 6: Overview of Consultation Processes 44Table 7: Priority areas/ concepts identified from across the country 50

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) | Islamabad, Pakistan | iii


ADB Asian Development BankAEDB Alternate Energy Development BoardAEs Accredited EntitiesAF Adaptation FundAIT Asian Institute of TechnologyAJK Azad Jammu & KashmirALGAS Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement StrategyAWD Alternate Wetting & DryingBEPA Balochistan Environment Protection AgencyCBOs Community Based OrganizationsCC Climate ChangeCCA Climate Change AdaptationCDM Clean Development MechanismCEE-CSA Creating Enabling Environment for the Adoption of Climate Smart AgricultureCH4 Methane GasCO2 Carbon DioxideCOP Conference of the PartiesCPEC China–Pakistan Economic CorridorCPEIR Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional ReviewCSA Climate Smart AgricultureCSL Climate Smart LivestockCSLBE Climate Smart Livestock Interventions and on Farm Bio Energy GenerationDFID Department for International DevelopmentDNA Designated National AuthorityDRR Disaster Risk ReductionECC Economic Coordination CommitteeEEZ Exclusive Economic ZoneENERCON National Energy Conservation CentreEPA Environmental Protection AgencyESL Energy Standards and LabelingEWS Early Warning SystemsFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationFATA Federally Administered Tribal AreasFCPF Forest Carbon Partnership FacilityFEW Forestry, Environment And WildlifeFFC Federal Flood CommissionFP Funding ProposalGAPs Good Agricultural PracticesGCF Green Climate FundGCISC Global Change Impact Studies CentreGCMs Global Circulation ModelsGDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment FacilityGHG Greenhouse GasGIS Geographic Information System

List of Acronyms

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GIZ Gesellschaft für Internationale ZusammenarbeitGLOF Glacial Lake Outburst FloodGOP Government of PakistanHFA Hyogo Framework for ActionHHs HouseholdsIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRLF-CRFS Improving Resilience of Local Farmer Communities to Climate Change Impacts By Promotion Of Climate Resilient (Rice) Farming Systems In Pakistan

IRSA Indus River System AuthorityIUCN International Union for Conservation of NatureKfW Kreditanstalt für WiederaufbauKP Khyber PakhtunkhwaKPOD Kadhan Pategi Outfall DrainLBOD Left Bank Outfall DrainM&E Monitoring & EvaluationMCDA Multi-Criteria Decision AnalysisMCM Million Cubic MetersMMD Mirpurkhas Main DrainMoCC Ministry of Climate ChangeMW MegawattNAMAs National Appropriate Mitigation Action(NAP National Adaptation PlanNCCP National Climate Change PolicyNDA National Designated AuthorityNDM National Disaster ManagementNDMA National Disaster Management AuthorityNDRMF National Disaster Risk Management FrameworkNFI National Forest InventoryNFMS National Forest Monitoring SystemNFRRAS Natural Forest Resource Assessment StudyNGOs Non-Governmental OrganizationNRSP National Rural Support ProgrammeNSDS National Sustainable Development StrategyNTFPs Non-Timber Forest ProductsPak-INDC Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined ContributionPARC Pakistan Agricultural Research CouncilPEQS Punjab Environmental Quality StandardsPM Particulate mattersPMD Pakistan Metrological DepartmentPPF Project Preparation FacilityPSDP Public Sector Development ProgrammesPSREP Pakistan Solar and Renewable Energy ProjectREDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest DegradationSEQS Sindh Environmental Quality standardsSLM Sustainable Land ManagementSLMS Satellite Land Monitoring SystemSME Small and Medium-sized EnterprisesTCSA Transformation to Climate Smart AgricultureTNA Technology Needs AssessmentUDP Urea Deep PlacementUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUSD United States DollarVDCs Village Development CommitteesVSBK Vertical Shaft Brick KilnsWAPDA Water and Power Development AuthorityWAPDA Water and Power Development AuthorityWHO World Health OrganizationWWF World Wide Fund for NatureZSD Zoological Survey Department

Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) | Islamabad, Pakistan | 1


Pakistan GCF Country Program presents the strategic framework which has been designed to facilitate access of national and regional stakeholder institutions in Pakistan to the Green Climate Fund window. The framework has been prepared in line with recommended format and instructions by GCF secretariat after detailed deliberations with diverse stakeholders especially provinces whose feedback has been the primary basis of proposed project portfolio in this framework. The document has been prepared in a logical fashion whereby Pakistan’s overall developmental profile as well as climate change policy milieu have been described in sufficient details for providing an overall contextual milieu for the GCF country profile and strategic framework. In these overarching discussions, individual sectors and their implications for climate change policy implementation have been mapped and described for deepening the contextual understanding alongside facilitating appreciation of climate change-related challenges, faced by Pakistan.

These broader policy discussions have been followed by detailed description of country’s experience in terms of GCF engagement which covers the history of association, various steps undertaken to put in place an institutional architect as well as strategies that have driven the working of the GCF engagement at the national level under the aegis of Ministry of Climate Change. Reference has also been made to country priorities drivers which are a reflection of climate related challenges faced by Pakistan at various levels and in different provinces. Role of international development partners as well as Pakistan’s readiness endeavors have also been mentioned in details for further clarifying the role of federal government in coordinating and facilitating access to GCF funding windows for various adaptation and mitigation interventions.

The final section provides a resume of proposed interventions which have been received from various federal and provincial stakeholders for possible funding through GCF facility. The proposed portfolio for strategic interventions has been designed through deliberations in a country level workshop as well as on the basis of feedback received from various provincial governments in recent weeks. The section provides primary details and features of these proposed investment proposal in a manner that national level mitigation and adaptation priorities have been amply covered. Last

Executive Summary




section of the document provides outlines of an M&E system for tracking progress on implementation of this Framework. This Strategic Framework as Country’s Programme for Pakistan on Climate Change Initiatives and Priorities for the engagement with the GCF has been developed as a lively and depth document, duly endorsed by Ministry of Climate Change. While clearly spelling out investment priorities for immediate to medium term, the framework document has in-built flexibility to cater to and reflect any changing provincial level priorities in the coming weeks and months for achieving overall objectives of Pakistan’s Climate Change policy.

Introduction

1



1.1. Pakistan Climate Change Country Profile

Pakistan, the sixth most populous country in the world, lies in a mostly arid and semi-arid geographic area prone to recurring large-scale floods, earthquakes, droughts and landslides. Despite recent economic growth, nearly 30 percent of Pakistan’s 189 million people live below the poverty line and high rates of malnutrition and food security persist. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these challenges. Natural disasters, which already disrupt livelihoods and the economy, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Floods in 2010 affected more than 18 million people and caused an estimated $10 billion in damages. They were followed by heavy monsoon rains in 2011 that affected some 9.7 million people in Sindh and Baluchistan Provinces. Projected temperature increases are expected to be above global averages, negatively impacting agricultural production, water availability and human health. This will be particularly true for large parts of Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan Provinces, already considered intense heat zones. In addition, sea level rise and saline intrusion threaten coastal infrastructure, agricultural lands and aquifers in Karachi (Pakistan’s largest city) and the adjoining Indus deltaic region. Water scarcity is a major impediment to planned growth and development, with far-reaching impacts across all sectors. Current water scarcity is expected to be exacerbated by higher temperatures and longer, more intense droughts.

Pakistan has distinct climate zones, with high altitude mountains in the north and west, arid deserts in the south, the hot and dry Indus River Valley in the center and south, and a humid 990-km coastline. Generally, the lower half of the country is hot and dry, while the north is more temperate and wet. During summer monsoon months (July–September), average temperatures do not exceed 15°C in the north, but reach 35°C in the south and central Indus Valley. Most of the country receives very little rainfall (less than 200 mm/year on average nationally), with the majority occurring in the summer monsoon season. During winter months (December–March), average temperatures are well below 0°C in the highest northern altitudes and 20°– 25°C in the low-lying south. Winter also brings substantial precipitation in northern regions. Inter annual rainfall varies significantly, leading to successive patterns of flood and drought.

1. Introduction

“Nearly 30 percent of Pakistan’s 189 million people live below the poverty line and high rates of malnutrition and food security persist.”



Historical climate trends since 1960 include: Average annual temperature increased 0.6°– 1.0°C, with temperature increases higher in the north. Maximum and minimum temperatures increased, resulting in shorter winters and longer summers. Mean annual rainfall decreased 10–15 percent in arid plains and the coastal belt, but increased in the north due to increased winter precipitation. Number of days considered “hot” increased by 20 and nights by 23. Number of heavy rainfall events increased. Snow cover decreased by about 10 percent. Sea levels rose by 1.2 mm per year.

Future climate projected changes in climate include: Increased temperatures of 1.4°–3.7°C by the 2060s and of 6.0°C by the 2090s, with projected increases higher during winter and in the north. Uncertain mean annual precipitation changes, with projected monthly rainfall changes ranging from a decrease of 20 percent to an increase of 41 percent by the 2090s. While large uncertainties remain, climate models point to increased rainfall from January–June and decreased from July–September. Decreased glacier volume and snow cover. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Rise in sea levels of 30–80 cm by 2100.

1.2. Pakistan Climate Change Scenario

A number of Pakistan’s environmental problems have emerged from resource misuse. Short-term interests have put a great strain on the environmental carrying capacity. In addition, the declining population resource ratio and ensuing poverty have also affected the quality of life. Certain types of developments have themselves contributed to resource degradation and pollution, and made the problems even greater. The situation has become so enmeshed in a vicious circle that it is not possible to separate cause and affect clearly, or to establish dividing lines. For example, it is difficult to establish whether the actions of the poor lead to environmental degradation or the lowered environmental carrying capacity leads to poverty.

The pressures on all kinds of ecosystems in Pakistan are increasing with time. In terrestrial ecosystem, for example, the pressure on cropped area is quite high and the per capita availability of cropped land is only about a quarter hectare per person. Despite expansion in agricultural lands, it declined from 0.46 hectares per capita in 1981 to 0.21 per capita in 2010. The inevitable future increase in population of about 3 million every year necessitates to focus on additional food production and farm output. However, in view of high man-land ratio and limited prospects for increasing arable land, the pressure is on enhancing production through farm inputs and other innovative means.

The process of land degradation has affected a large portion of the country’s agricultural land. The suspended sediment load per km sq of drainage basin in the country is one of the highest in the world. It is an adequate indicator of the intensity of soil erosion, which has affected about 18million hectares of land so far; salt affected soils are estimated to over 5 million hectares; while another 2 million hectares is waterlogged. In spite of tremendous efforts for reclamation, large tracts of irrigated

“The inevitable future increase in population of about 3 million every year necessitates to focus on additional food production and farm output.”



lands are still lying waste as a result of water logging and salinity, mainly in the area where canal irrigation is practiced. Annual costs of agricultural losses from soil salinity, erosion and rangeland degradation have been estimated at 48-100 billion rupees.

Forests cover about 5.2 percent land area in Pakistan. This percentage is quite low as compared to a desired level of 20 to 30 percent. According to the Natural Forest Resource Assessment Study (NFRRAS 2005), forest resources in the country are declining, and it has been estimated that the deforestation rate over the 1990-2005 period was 2.1 percent or 47,000 hectares annually. Among various types, the most valuable coniferous forests are declining at the rate of 40,000 hectares annually. Gilgit Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have the highest annual rates of deforestation (about 34,000 hectares per year in Gilgit Baltistan, and 8000 hectares per year in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). The rate of decline in riverine and mangrove forests was estimated at 2,300 and 4,900 hectares per year respectively. These are alarming rates considering the low level of forest coverage in the country together with high ecological value of forests in maintaining the life support system. Annual costs of deforestation losses have been estimated at 206-334 million rupees.

The low share of the forest area taken in association with the large population of Pakistan gives only 0.033 hectares per capita compared with world average of one hectare (GOP, 2010b). Rising costs and decreased supply is the most likely future scenario of forests in Pakistan, in the wake of increasing population and growing income and demands on forest products. It has been estimated that the annual timber requirement of 2.0 million cubic meters in the early eighties has already doubled to about 4.0 million cubic meters at present, while the contemporary firewood consumption has also almost doubled from 16.6 million cubic meters to 30 million cubic meters (GOP, 2010b) during the same period. No systematic attempt has been made in Pakistan so far to list the diversity, endemism or threats to species of fauna and flora. However, according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals (IUCN, 1996), 37 species and 14 sub-species of mammals in Pakistan are internationally threatened or near threatened. Among birds and reptiles 25 and 10 species are internationally threatened respectively. Some 500-plant species are also believed to be nationally rare or threatened. Regarding genetic diversity, Pakistan is rich in indigenous crops with an estimated 3,000 taxes of cultivated plants. There are about 500 wild relatives of cultivated crops, most of which are found in the Northern Areas of Pakistan (GOP, IUCN and WWF, 2000).

Historically, northern and western Pakistan constitutes one of the world centres on the origin and diversity of cultivated plants. However, this genetic diversity is under serious threat after the introduction of high-yielding varieties and mono cropping. Expansion of land for cultivation, deforestation, overgrazing and dam construction are posing additional threats to wild land races of cultivated crops. Pakistan’s aquatic resources are also under pressure. According to estimates, the Indus River irrigates 80 percent of the agricultural land extending over an area of 21.5 million hectares. With the diversion for irrigation, the amount of water in the Indus River downstream has declined dramatically

“Pakistan is rich in indigenous crops with an estimated 3,000 taxes of cultivated plants.”



from 185,000 million m3 per annum in 1892 to 12,300 million m3 per annum in 1990s. As a consequence of reduced water flows, the natural ecosystem of the Indus Delta has been seriously affected by saltwater intrusion due to backwash from the sea.

The resultant adverse impacts on the ecology and economy of the Indus Delta have contributed to the loss of millions of dollars (IUCN 2003, 2009). Besides problems arising due to water withdrawal, irrigation itself has created several ecological problems. The most serious - water logging and salinity - has resulted from sub-optimum use of water in a badly managed irrigation system. While average water delivery efficiency due to age, overuse, and poor maintenance of canals and consequent seepage has reduced to 35 to 40 per cent from the canal head to the root zone, it has also caused land degradation through water logging and salinity. Pakistan’s per capita availability of water is about 1000 m, which puts it in the category of ‘high stress’ countries. Vision 2030 has estimated that in the wake of high population growth, increasing demands of agriculture and related economic activities, growing urbanization and industrialization, as well as extended periods of droughts, an additional 48 billion m3 water would be required in the near future. This will require water conservation as well as judicious use and management of the available water resources. River flows fluctuate in Pakistan and during flood season, high flows cause serious damage to life and property. Due to low storage capacity, the excessive water cannot be utilized effectively and gets wasted by flowing into the sea. According to current estimates, on average, 43 billion cubic meter of water flows into the sea during the flood season.

The country’s current water storage capacity is only 9 per cent of the average annual flows compared to the world average of 40 percent. Therefore, increasing storage capacity to conserve floodwater must form an important part of the water policy/strategy. Deteriorating water quality is another serious environmental problem in the country. The important sources of water pollution are silt, salt and municipal and industrial waste. The increasing number and size of human settlements in the vicinity of water bodies is a major cause of severe stress on the aquatic resources. The total waste water discharge in Pakistan is estimated to be 7,590 million cubic meters (MCM) per annum (21 MCM per day). Thirty percent of discharge is from industries, which amount to about 6.25 MCM per day (Khan, 2010).

The municipal/domestic discharges are more than half of these discharges. It is projected that both municipal and industrial discharges will double by 2025. Presently, only one percent of urban wastewater is treated in Pakistan, and the remaining flows into streams and rivers without any treatment. The treatment of industrial waste water is particularly essential in view of the fact that currently a considerable amount of their discharge contains toxic chemicals and heavy metals, which find their way into river water and the sea. In marine environment, besides pollution, the shrinking of mangroves has been a serious setback, partly due to excessive water withdrawal upstream of Indus, and as a result of deforestation. Lately the management and afforestation efforts have improved mangrove situation though. In terms of pollution, the worst hit is the Karachi coastline, which is being affected by a number of economic

“The increasing number and size of human settlements in the vicinity of water bodies is a major cause of severe stress on the aquatic resources.“



activities taking place in urban and industrial, port and shipping, municipal and domestic and transportation sectors. A major portion of untreated wastewater from these activities is discharged into the sea mainly through Lyari and Malir rivers. Many creeks and coastal waters in the Karachi area exhibit increased organic loads resulting in an increased productivity accompanied with oxygen depletion of water near the bottom (harmful to benthic shrimps such as penaeid and ground fishes). They have also given rise to noxious phytoplankton and algal blooms in recent years.

The production of fish in Pakistan went up from 272 thousand tons from the sea and 60 thousand tons from inland water bodies in the early nineteen eighties to 668,000 metric tons from the sea and 284,000 tons from the inland water bodies at present. The fish catch potential from the coastal and deep-sea belts in Pakistan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) needs to be estimated urgently, in the absence of modeling of which there is danger that a major expansion of marine fisheries could over-exploit one or more species to the long-term detriment of these resources. The deteriorating quality of urban air and global climate change are the major issues affecting the atmospheric ecosystem in Pakistan. Urban air quality has deteriorated in the wake of growing industrialization, multiplication in number and type of industries, enhanced use of chemicals, fast increasing mechanical traffic and increased energy consumption. Based on existing air quality monitoring data, particulate matters (PM and PM) are the main sources of air pollution. PM concentrations were found to 10 2.5 considerably exceed the limits set by WHO guidelines in all surveyed cities.

Heavy concentrations of PM cause a high burden of respiratory diseases in the population. This is confirmed by World Bank that the estimated high health costs of air pollution related diseases ranged from Rs.62 to Rs.65 billion per year, about 1% of GDP. It is important to consider these kinds of environmental costs in the national planning and decision-making process for attaining economic growth, if the country expects to use the full range of its natural resources most efficiently. It also underscores the urgent need to effectively implement measures to reduce particulate pollution. In terms of climate change, in agreement with the global trend, average annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.6°C during the last century. The rate and nature of change, however, has not only varied over time but also across the country. For example, the temperature increase over northern Pakistan was higher than over its southern part (0.8°C versus 0.6°C). Further, it was higher in the second half compared to the first half of the last century. Projections at the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) in Pakistan, based on historical weather data and modeling have shown a strong correlation among the IPCC’s predictions and projections for Pakistan. Studies based on the ensemble outputs of several Global Circulation Models (GCMs) project that the average temperature over Pakistan will increase progressively corresponding to an increase in average global surface temperature by 2.8-3.4°C by the turn of the present century. The projected temperature increases, for Pakistan as a whole in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s are 1.31°C, 2.54°C and 4.38°C respectively in A2 scenario and corresponding 1.45°C, 2.75°C and 3.87°C in A1B scenario. Climate change will have serious impacts on all aspects of sustainable development in the country - economic, social as well as

“In marine environment, besides pollution, the shrinking of mangroves has been a serious setback, partly due to excessive water withdrawal upstream of Indus, and as a result of deforestation.“



environmental. This is despite the fact that the country contributes very little to the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Its per capita emissions of GHG falls much below the global average with 1.9 tons of per capita GHG emissions. Pakistan stands at a level which corresponds to about one-third of the world average, one-fifth of the average for Western Europe and one tenth of the per capita the emissions in the US, putting it at 135th place in the world ranking of countries on the basis of their per capita GHG emissions.

1.3. Pakistan Vulnerability Profile

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by India, Afghanistan, Iran, and China. It borders the Arabian Sea to the south, and stretches north to the Hindu Kush and Karakoram mountain ranges. Pakistan’s 180 million people are economically and culturally diverse, and live in very different climate zones, topographies, and ecosystems. Most live along the banks of the Indus River, which is prone to severe flooding in July and August. Approximately 33 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Pakistan has rich natural resources, including productive land, water, and mineral deposits, but still grapples with the challenge of balancing economic development with environmental protection. Pakistan is considered a semi-industrialized country and has generally shown slow growth. Its economy increasingly revolves around services, although a large part of the population still lives in rural areas and works in the agricultural sector. Agriculture contributes 22 percent of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 43 percent of the labor force.

1.4. Projected Weather and Climate Changes

Pakistan has 11 climate zones due to its range of topographies and ecosystems, and each of these climate zones experiences different weather and climate patterns. Generally, the coastal areas of the country are dry and hot and the northern uplands get progressively cooler. The winter months (December-February) are cool and dry. The country experiences monsoons from June through September, with a lesser degree of monsoon activity in October and November as well.

Temperature: Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed in Pakistan over the last 50 years. Cold days, nights, and frost have become less frequent whereas hot days, nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. According to Pakistan’s Task Force on Climate Change, temperature is projected to increase from the 1960-1999 baseline by 1.3°C by 2020, 2.5°C by 2050, and 4.4°C by 2080 under the A2 scenario. Under the A1B scenario, temperatures in Pakistan are projected to rise by 1.45°C, 2.75°C and 3.87°C in 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively.

Precipitation: Average rainfall in the arid and coastal plains of Pakistan has decreased by between 10 and 15 percent since 1960, while increasing during the same time period over northern Pakistan. Heavy rainfall events have increased, with the nine heaviest rains recorded in 24 hours all being registered in 2010.

“Pakistan has rich natural resources, including productive land, water, and mineral deposits, but still grapples with the challenge of balancing economic development with environmental protection.”



Sea Level Rise: The low-lying plains along the coast of Pakistan are exposed to the impacts of sea level rise, with conservative scenarios projecting an increase of 40 cm by 2100.

Extreme Events: Pakistan has experienced about 18 extreme weather events since 1990, including the historic 2010 floods, as well as droughts, cyclones, and landslides. Due to the heavy monsoon rains during the summer months, Pakistan often experiences severe flooding in the Indus River basin, where much of the population lives on low-lying lands. Rain- or otherwise- triggered landslides are common in the northern regions of Pakistan, particularly those connected to Azad Jammu Kashmir province. Lowland plains, especially those surrounding the urban areas of Karachi and Hyderabad, are vulnerable to the impacts of cyclones and storm surge. Finally, sparse and erratic rainfall patterns can alter water tables, leading to drought conditions in the southern and central regions of Pakistan.

1.5. Key Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Much of the Pakistani population depends on agricultural activities for food and income. Under future climate scenarios, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall could limit the country’s ability to sustain its current levels of agricultural and livestock production. Agriculture uses 92 percent of the country’s extracted water, which makes it highly vulnerable to changes in hydrologic balance. Pakistan is ranked fourth in the world in terms of the extent of irrigated farmland; about 90 percent of agricultural output comes from irrigated land. The irrigation network receives 50 to 80 percent of its water directly from glaciers and snow melt in the Karakoram Hindu Kush series. Any change in the glacier mass balance will thus directly affect irrigated agriculture. Increasing temperatures could also increase demand for irrigation by triggering evapotranspiration. Further, erratic rainfall could increase the vulnerability of energy production, as 33 percent of Pakistan’s energy supply is hydropower-driven. Availability of freshwater for key requirements such as drinking water and industrial uses will be diminished since most of this water comes from groundwater aquifers. Coastal communities and infrastructure are likely to be impacted by severe cyclones, storm surge, saltwater intrusion, and flooding during wet years.

1.6. Key Climate Change Threats

1.6.1 Water Resources

IPCC predicts a continued decline in freshwater availability (Climate Change and Water”, IPCC Technical Paper VI-June, 2008), particularly in large basins like the Indus, the flow of which constitutes the main source of surface water in Pakistan. According to the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), per capita surface water availability plunged from 5260m3 per year in 1951 to 1100m3 in 2006, and is expected to decrease further with the dual impacts of rising temperatures and increasing demand. A critical irrigation supply scenario is expected to emerge in Pakistan by the year 2012-2013, contributing to a projected 12 million tons deficit in grain production.

“Agriculture uses 92 percent of the country’s extracted water, which makes it highly vulnerable to changes in hydrologic balance.”



1.6.2. Agriculture and Food Security

Climate Change enhances the susceptibility of agricultural zones to episodic natural catastrophes such as storms, floods and droughts, in turn exposing countries to the threat of socio-economic losses. The multi-functionality of agriculture is a recognized feature of Pakistan’s socio-economic system. These observations confirm findings from studies that have demonstrated a sensitivity of cereal and tree crop to changes in temperature and moisture. With just a 1C rise in temperature, wheat yield in Pakistan is estimated to decline by 6-9%. Even lower temperature rises can severely impact cash crops like mango and cotton.

1.6.3. Human Health

In view of the forecasts for future food security, water quality, increasing heat stress and growing frequency of natural disasters, the direct implications of Climate Change for human health are daunting. Furthermore, vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, typhoid and cholera that are already a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in Pakistan are climate sensitive and known to thrive in warmer regions. An increase in epidemic potential of 12-27 per cent for malaria and 31-47 per cent for dengue is anticipated as a consequence of climate change.

The cost of health in Pakistan, which already exceeds one billion US dollars, will keep escalating with the projected climatic changes, and further impact poverty reduction and health improvement targets of the country. Moreover, increasing prevalence of disease in the region has consequences for food security as well: an increasing prevalence of certain types of diseases and ailments among livestock has been observed in the country as an effect of rising temperatures.

1.6.4. Terrestrial Ecosystems

In recent years, enormous pressures have been put on Pakistan’s ecosystems to support the ever-growing demand for natural resources. The most affected areas are coastal and marine ecosystems, forests and mountainous regions and the flora and fauna within them. Climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution, productivity, and health of forests. Grassland productivity is expected to decline by at least 40 per cent for an increase in temperature of 2 – 3° C, combined with reduced precipitation in the semi-arid and arid regions of Asia.

1.6.5. Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems

The climatic and agro-agriculture zones in Pakistan are as sensitive as they are diverse and some are already under threat of extinction as a consequence of global warming. At particular risk from the ecological dis-equilibrium are populations in marginal zones, coastal/maritime, mountain and arid areas. Those living in coastal zones are even

“The multi-functionality of agriculture is a recognized feature of Pakistan’s socio-economic system.”



more vulnerable. Swelling sea levels on the 990km coastline coupled with rising sea surface temperatures could potentially wreak havoc on many coastal towns and cities. Coastal Karachi, Pakistan’s largest urban center, is increasingly subjected to floods and storms, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of people. The survival of important coastal ecosystems like mangrove swamps is also under threat with the intrusion of saline water and rising temperature. The loss of mangroves not only weakens the protection from floods but also destroys the habitat of various species residing within the swamps, some of which are sources of livelihood for poor communities engaging in sustainable fishing.

1.6.6. Natural Disasters

Besides the long-term effects of climate change, as above, there has also been a recorded, dramatic increase in the number and scale of extreme, weather-related events. The British Government (DFID) notes that, ‘Climate change is resulting in an increase in the frequency and severity of climatic extremes, which increases the frequency of weather-related disasters. Climate change hits the poor hardest and the greatest impacts are likely to be on food security, the productivity of agricultural export crops, health, water security and quality. It is also likely to result in the displacement of people.’

Weather-related disasters from less than 200 every year in the decades of 1980s and 1990s, rose to one every day on average between 2000 and 2006. Over the past 10 years, weather-related disasters have affected 2.5 billion people. 98% of those killed in natural disasters across the world are in developing countries, underlining the link between vulnerability to disasters and poverty. Typically, many resources are spent after disasters, rather than trying to prevent the damage they cost by helping the poor to adapt. Not enough is being done globally to adapt to the effects of climate change and prevent weather-related extreme events from turning into human disasters. To-date, there has been no systematic mapping or trend-analysis of weather-related natural disasters in Pakistan.

1.7. Key Emitters Sectors and related mitigation challenges

Quantification of future emissions in Pakistan has been based on possible future scenarios and assumptions, apart from a number of other relevant factors. The country is passing through a unique phase of economic and social development, and is faced with grave challenges, including a rapidly increasing population and threats to its food and energy security. Therefore, a detailed analysis of future emissions is based on a wide range of probable scenarios in different sectors. Since GDP growth is considered to have a strong correlation with GHG emission pathways, particularly during the early developmental phase, it is imperative to establish a realistically credible GDP growth scenario for projecting the levels of GHG emission for this period.

The methodology for quantification of future emissions has been customized to integrate the multiple emerging factors, which historically has not been the practice

“Climate change hits the poor hardest and the greatest impacts are likely to be on food security, the productivity of agricultural export crops, health, water security and quality.”



in Pakistan. The quantification of future emissions based on the ‘business as usual’ scenario is, however, not consistent with future economic growth and developmental objectives of Pakistan. Hence, the methodology has been suitably adjusted to cater for the emerging needs and the forthcoming parameters in the developmental planning of Pakistan.

The Vision 2025 document of the Government of Pakistan sets a target of average GDP growth rate of 7 percent until the year 2025, which has been used for the extended period until 2030. Further incremental growth rate due to CPEC investments, infrastructure development and increasing energy demand has been adequately incorporated. Based on this adjusted GDP growth rate, the sectoral growth rates have been calculated, thereby providing the sector-specific basis for quantification of the projected sectoral emissions till the year 2030. Although historical sectoral growth rates have been duly considered, the parameters for future scenarios are considered to be more relevant.

In an endeavor to fully incorporate possible future prospects and also to undertake the analytical exercise, possible scenarios of emissions growth have been prepared with due care. This helped analyze the overall emissions trajectory on a broad spectrum with comprehensive perspective, leading to the final emissions numbers. Hence, projected emissions for different sectors are believed to be the most representative and quantitatively realistic.

1.7.1. Sector-wise Projection of Emissions

Energy SectorEnergy is currently the largest contributing sector in Pakistan’s emissions profile, contributing nearly 46 percent to total emissions; and its share is likely to grow significantly in future. Calculation of projected emissions for the year 2030 is based on the accelerated growth scenario of the energy sector, adjusted to the average GDP growth rate as estimated by the government. It envisages a high demand power sector growth scenario, which would result in substantial increase in total electricity capacity of the grid by the year 2030, from domestic as well as imported coal power plants and additional hydel generation. Share of LNG and renewable sources such as wind and hydro, is also likely to significantly increase in future. Keeping in view the projected rate of GDP growth and sectoral growth; and taking into consideration the proposed implementation of power generation investment plans, projected emissions for the year 2030 for energy sector are calculated as 898 MT CO2-equivalent.

AgricultureAgriculture is the second largest sector contributing 43% of GHG emissions as recorded in the current GHG emissions inventory. Although the percentage share of agriculture in the coming years is likely to decrease due to expected growth in the industrial and transport sectors, the sector will continue to remain an important emissions contributor due to inherent inter-linkage of agriculture growth with food security and

“Energy is currently the largest contributing sector in Pakistan’s emissions profile, contributing nearly 46 percent to total emissions”



poverty alleviation. While achieving the diversification of the economy, sustained growth in the agriculture sector is one of the priority areas of the national government. The forecasted economic growth rate, duly adjusted, shows a faster agriculture sector growth as compared to its average historical trend of about 03 percent per annum. Minimum agriculture growth rate of 04 percent has been determined by the government to improve food security and ensure minimum nutritional value for the growing population.

Improvement in per capita incomes is already being reflected in a shift in the dietary habits of increasing proportions of population and the trend is likely to be intensified in the foreseeable future. With expected healthy rise in GDP and sizeable impact of CPEC interventions, this growth is likely to be well over 4% per annum. The required adjustment of agricultural growth rate has been taken into consideration while calculating emissions from the agriculture sector. The projected size of total agriculture emissions adds up to 457 MT CO2-equivalent.

Industrial ProcessesShare of emissions from industrial processes currently stands at slightly over 5%, with expectations of exponential growth in the coming years. This growth in industrial activity is considered to be the engine for higher targeted GDP growth beyond the current industrial sector growth of 7% per annum. It is envisaged that CPEC will boost the projected annual average trade volume by 24 percent in 2016-2020 and by another 16 percent in the 2020-30 decade. As the industrial sector is likely to see substantial growth, its share of emissions will also increase in the near future. Projected emissions for the industrial sector for year 2030 are 130 MT CO2-equivalent.

Land Use Change and ForestryHistorical emissions from the land use change and forestry sector remained 2 to 3 percent of overall emissions. The projected increase in emissions is based on massive changes in land use and enormous deforestation which the country is currently suffering and potential use of biomass in energy and industrial processes. Large-scale tree plantation programmes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Green Pakistan Programme are likely to increase forest cover from the current 5 percent to 6 percent, using domestic resources during the period 2016-2020. An approximate amount of US$ 936 million has been allocated for this purpose. An increase in the forest cover from 6 to 10 percent by the year 2030 requires an estimated US$ 3.74 billion. Projected emissions for the land use change and forestry sector for year 2030 are 29 MT CO2- equivalent.

WasteWaste has so far seen a gradual increase in the share of overall emissions in Pakistan. It is expected to grow significantly in the foreseeable future. The share of the waste sector in the current GHG inventory is 3 percent, which is quite low as compared to the size of the population. However, Pakistan is in the midst of rapid urbanization, which would result in a sharp increase in the overall amount of waste generation and consequently an increased share of waste sector emissions. The increased GDP growth rate coupled

“Minimum agriculture growth rate of 04 percent has been determined by the government to improve food security and ensure minimum nutritional value for the growing population.”



with an urbanization growth rate of 3 percent are major considerations in calculation of waste sector emissions. Projected emissions for the waste sector for the year 2030 are 89 MT CO2-equivalent.

Table 1:

SectorsYears

1994 2015 2030Energy 85.8 185.97 898Industrial Process 13.29 21.85 130Agriculture 71.63 174.56 457Land Use Change and Forestry 6.52 10.39 29Waste 4.45 12.29 89Total 181.7 405.06 1,603

1.7.2. Overall Projected Emissions for 2030

Projected levels of GHG emissions and their comparison with the last two GHG inventory years (1994 and 2015) are shown in the table. While from 1994 to 2015 the emissions increased by about 123 percent, the total emissions are expected to increase by about 300 percent for the project.

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Country Development Profile

2



2.1. Pakistan Development Profile

Pakistan has made significant progress in regaining macroeconomic stability over the past three years. Pakistan macroeconomic achievements in the past three years: the fiscal deficit has shrunk from 8 percent to below 5 percent, international reserves have tripled to over $18b, and the rate of growth has increased by a full percentage point to 4.7 percent.

Economic indicators in the first half of FY17 suggest that pressures are mounting for both fiscal consolidation and external balances. The current account deficit will more than double in FY19 from 1.1 percent of GDP in FY16. Reserves are forecast to be around $18b by FY19, still well above three months of imports. The fiscal deficit will widen from 4.5 percent of GDP in FY16 to 5.1 percent in FY18, and will decline slightly to 4.9 percent in FY19. Pakistan has also embarked on an ambitious structural reforms program. Implementation record has been mixed. There were early successes in taxation, the financial sector, the business environment (at both the national and provincial levels), and the electricity sector. However, significant reforms undertaken in the electricity sector have stalled since the Government stopped privatization a year ago.

Circular debt cleared earlier has piled up again nearly to its 2013 levels. There have been efforts to reduce the electricity regulator’s independence. Progress in improving development outcomes have been mixed and investment levels remain very low, at around 15 percent of GDP (both public and private). Maintaining macroeconomic stability and further progress in structural reforms will be necessary to accelerate growth and ensure it is inclusive and sustainable.

Growth, though volatile and low in some periods, has been quite pro-poor in Pakistan over the past decade and a half. The headcount poverty rate has fallen consistently over this period, from 34.7 percent in FY01/02 to 9.3 percent in FY13/14 (using the latest survey data and the old poverty line). Using incidence curves that plot the growth rate in consumption at each percentile of the distribution, it is evident that growth has been pro-poor in Pakistan through much of this period. Looking at the bottom 40 percent

2. Country Development Profile



of the population—a measure of shared prosperity—we see a similar pattern. The Government adopted a revised methodology to measure poverty and a new poverty line in 2016. Under the revised poverty line, the poverty head count has declined from 64.3 percent in FY01/02 to 29.5 percent in FY13/14. Our understanding of what has caused this significant decline in poverty remains incomplete. Important contributors are higher GDP growth in the earlier years, strong growth in remittances, effective social assistance programs as well as rapid and ‘hidden’ urbanization which has led to a very vibrant informal sector.

Pakistan remains one of the lowest performers in the South Asia Region on human development indicators, especially in education and stunting. The Net Enrollment Rates in education have been increasing in Pakistan but still lag behind other South Asian countries. Infant and under five mortality rates represent a similar story. Gender disparities persist in education, health and all economic sectors. Pakistan has one of the lowest female labor force participation rates in the region. Nutrition also remains a significant cross-cutting challenge, as 44% of children under five are stunted.

The spending on health, nutrition, and education, now totaling 3 percent of GDP, significantly lower than most other countries. Increased allocation will only be possible after increasing government revenues. The tax-to-GDP ratio, at 12.4 percent, is one of the lowest in the world and it is still half of what it could be for Pakistan. Continued reforms to broaden the tax base and increase revenues will therefore need to remain a priority. Service delivery is the responsibility of subnational governments, whose capacity varies, but the federal Government needs to play an assertive stewardship role as increased financing has to be accompanied by meaningful improvements in quality of services. A strategy to greatly improve development outcomes would therefore need to combine efforts to increase the level of public spending as well as improving its quality, with a focus on provincial level capacity.

Over the past couple of years, greater decision-making authority has been assigned to provincial governments. The Eighteenth Constitutional Amendment has devolved a number of key functions to the provinces. In total, functions in 17 federal ministries have been devolved, including Agriculture, Education, Environment, and Health. In addition, a greater share of revenues has been passed to the provinces through the National Finance Commission Award (NFC) in order to enable them to perform these functions. As expected, the devolution has posed institutional and capacity challenges at the provincial level, and meeting these challenges will require concerted efforts to enhance sub-national capacity and institutional development, which varies across provinces.

Pakistan’s economy has been facing problems for years, which resulted in a near-crisis like situation in 2013 mainly owing to unstable security situation, crippling energy crisis and ensuing large foreign exchange requirements with alarmingly lower level of foreign exchange reserves. Besides, a number of deep structural problems, that have been there for decades, added to the woe in the form of weak financial position rooted in low tax



revenue, limited exports growth, insufficient investment in human capital development, weak infrastructure and low economic activities. Economic growth of the country, which remained subdued until 2013, started to rebound on account of comprehensive reforms agenda adopted by the government including relief in energy shortages, restoring investor’s confidence, reforming public sector enterprises, increasing the tax revenue and austerity measures to rationalize the current expenditure. GDP posted 4.2 percent growth during 2014-15, up from 4 percent last year.

Government was able to substantially reduce near-term vulnerabilities. It was supported by conducive policies, low oil prices, strong remittances, contained fiscal deficit and declined inflation while foreign exchange reserves improved considerably. The near-term economic outlook for Pakistan is now broadly favorable, although, structural bottlenecks may impede higher potential growth. The main challenges are to reinforce the recent gains in economic stability and generate a sustainable growth momentum by accelerating structural reforms. Key priorities include fiscal consolidation, widening the tax net to enable higher investment in infrastructure and social sectors, fixing the energy sector issues, restructuring / privatizing loss-making public-sector enterprises, improving the business climate for higher growth, continuing the policy agenda to foster financial sector development and continued foreign exchange reserve accumulation.

Overall, fiscal deficit during 2014-15 was recorded at 5.3 percent of GDP, which was lower than 5.5 percent witnessed during the last year. However, compared with budget target for the year, the fiscal deficit was slightly higher. While the fiscal consolidation during the year was challenged by lower than expected tax revenues, expenditures remained under control. Key factors affecting tax revenues were: (i) significant decline in oil prices, which adversely affected sales tax collection; (ii) continuing issues with tax enforcement; and (iii) subdued manufacturing activity.

After several years of weak economic performance, most of the macroeconomic indicators witnessed improvement during the last two fiscal years. During 2014-15, GDP growth slightly increased while key macroeconomic indicators such as fiscal and current account balance improved, inflation rate declined, foreign exchange reserves increased and public debt to GDP ratio declined. Most of the public debt sustainability indicators improved as the government was able to further lengthen the maturity profile of its domestic debt and accordingly refinancing and interest rate risks reduced. External debt sustainability also improved owing to increase in debt carrying capacity of the country.

The near-term economic outlook for Pakistan is now broadly favorable, although, structural bottlenecks may impede higher potential growth. Almost all the components of fiscal operations have achieved their budget targets and support that the current policy is operational in the right direction to ensure macroeconomic stability and conducive environment for development. The central element of government’s economic program was to reduce the budget deficit through a combination of raising tax revenue and reducing current expenditure, especially untargeted subsidies and restructuring of ailing PSEs to eliminate their continuing burden on the public

“The main challenges are to reinforce the recent gains in economic stability and generate a sustainable growth momentum by accelerating structural reforms.”



exchequer. From a revised estimate of 8.8 percent of GDP during 2012-13, fiscal deficit was brought down to 8.2 percent before the actual close and from there on, it has been reduced to 5.3 percent in 2014-15. This performance has paved the way for arresting the deteriorating public debt profile in the country.

Fiscal policy should continue to explore opportunities for augmenting the resource envelop. At the same time, revenue mobilization should be given priority along with rationalization of current expenditure as envisaged in budget 2015-16. The elements of the vision presented were: a) GDP growth to gradually rise to 7 percent by 2017-18; (b) Inflation will be contained to single digit; (c) Investment to GDP ratio will rise to 20 percent in the medium term; (d) Fiscal deficit would be brought down to 3.5 percent of GDP; (e) Tax to GDP ratio will be increased to 13 percent; and (f) Foreign exchange reserves would be maintained at a sustainable level. Further, the principles of sound fiscal and debt management as outlined in the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005 shall be adhered to in the coming years.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet approved the Infrastructure Finance Policy Pakistan 2017 to provide a sound and long-term infrastructure finance framework. Under the policy, a sound and long-term infrastructure finance framework has been provided that caters to both demand and supply side of finance. The policy is designed to attract Foreign Direct Investment and mobilize private financing for public infrastructure.

The policy envisages phase-wise intervention of various areas to increase the quantum of infrastructure financing. It envisages forward looking policy framework for infrastructure finance, good practices infrastructure projects initiation framework, enhanced financial intermediation for infrastructure investment and strengthening of development finance framework.

The policy intends to have particular focus on infrastructure sub-sectors more suited to private sector investment and finance. It would cater to transportation facilities including, but not limited to, ports, terminals, airports, railways, water-ways and toll roads. The Energy including oil and gas, thermal, hydro and other renewable power infrastructure and telecommunications (fiber optics) would also be target under the policy.

2.2. Key Climate Change Needs

2.2.1. Financial Needs

Overall, Pakistan’s adaptation needs range between US$ 7 - 14 billion per annum. Government of Pakistan is in the process of developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) at the national level for creating a framework of action to guide the implementing agencies on mainstreaming of medium and long-term climate change efforts into policies, strategies and programmes. This is to provide capacity support for a more

“The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet approved the Infrastructure Finance Policy Pakistan 2017 to provide a sound and long-term infrastructure finance framework.”



coordinated approach within and among different levels and tiers of the government. Along with NAP, sectoral and sub-national adaptation plans would also be prepared, that would incorporate the recommendations and actions considered so far. These plans would enable the sub-national governments in prioritizing their adaptation needs and allocating corresponding financial resources. Based on economic analyses, a reduction of up to 20 percent in the projected emissions for 2030 would require approximately US$ 40 billion calculated at current prices.

2.2.2. Technology needs Adaptation:

For this TNA exercise, two key economic sectors of water and agriculture are identified as those sectors most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, therefore technological interventions in these sectors are deemed necessary to adapt to climate changes for achieving sustainable socio-economic development in the country. This TNA report, which is prepared with support from GEF, UNEP and AIT, is the outcome of extensive consultation process which led to the identification prioritized sectors and technologies through the use of MCDA tool. The adaptation technologies were prioritized based on a set of the following criteria group with varying weights:

» Benefits –Contribution to economic & social and environmental goals » Relevance to climate change –Potential to reduce vulnerability and built

climate resilience » Cost of technology –Implementation and maintenance

The prioritized technologies in water and agriculture sectors are given below:

Table 2: Prioritized technologies in water and agriculture sectors

Prioritized Sectors Prioritized TechnologiesWater Sector 1. Surface rainwater harvesting

2. Groundwater recharge 3. Urban storm water management

Agriculture Sector 1. High efficiency (drip & sprinkler) irrigation systems for irrigated and rained areas 2. Drought tolerant crop varieties 3. Climate monitoring and forecasting- early warning system

2.2.3. Technology needs Mitigation

The project identified GHG emission reduction potentials in the selected sectors, as well as prioritized technology needs keeping in view the current mitigation potential of the technologies and the national development goals and priority needs identified in National Climate Change Policy and Pakistan Vision 2025. The Vision 2025 aims to double the GDP growth from 4 percent to 8 percent as well as acceleration of huge transportation and industrial activities along the Pakistan China Economic Corridor. The Vision 2025 envisages to double power generation to over 45,000 MW to provide

“Two key economic sectors of water and agriculture are identified as those sectors most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.”



uninterrupted and affordable electricity, and increase electricity access from 67% to over 90% of the population; reduce average cost per unit by improving generation mix and reducing distribution losses; increase percentage of indigenous sources of power generation; and increasing usage of energy efficient appliances/products. As a result the Pakistan‘s GHG emission will rise from 369 tons of CO2 equivalent in 2012 to 1046 and 4621 tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The TNA project implementation is overseen by National Climate Change (CC) Policy Implementation Committee which serves as National TNA Steering Committee headed by the Federal Minister for Climate Change. The Director General (Environment & CC) serves as coordinator and Chairs the National TNA Committee. His office is Secretariat of the TNA Project Management Office which liaise with International Partners and other stakeholders. An Expert Working Group on Mitigation provides technical backup for the TNA process. For implementation of TNA project in Pakistan UNEP engaged the services of two Consultants, one for mitigation and the other for adaptation. The TNA report, prepared with support from GEF, UNEP and AIT, is the outcome of extensive consultation process which led to the identification of prioritized sectors and technologies through the use of MCDA tool.

2.2.4. Assessment of Capacity Building Needs

Potential for mitigation and need for adaptation is well recognized and elaborately documented in Pakistan; and so is the determination of capacity gaps. Need for capacity building exists both at policy as well as operational levels at national and sub-national tiers alike. As an aftermath of the 18th Amendment, sub-national governments are now carrying out both policy and operational work. Hence there is a need for harmonizing national and sub-national policies and synergizing the action agenda so that considerations of climate change can be incorporated into over-arching development planning in a coherent manner. The Ministry of Climate Change, which plays a pivotal role at the national level, would also benefit from institutional strengthening and capacity enhancement. In acknowledgment of the potential for mitigation and identification of priority areas for adaption, an independent assessment of capacity building needs has been carried out, considering following specific aspects:

» In spite of climate change being increasingly recognized as a critical issue interlinked with all key sectors of the economy, the requisite institutional and policy linkages have not been fully established;

» Technical capacity for climate proofing of existing and future developmental projects is low. This has kept climate change largely disconnected from development programs and projects, restraining the country from climate compatible and disaster resilient developmental pathways;

» Mitigation typically requires technological upgrades with sophisticated technical capacity and additional costs. Long-term planning and institutional strengthening, however, remain pre-requisites for adaptation at the local level. For fully realizing the prevailing potential for both mitigation and adaptation,



technical capacity at all levels needs to be enhanced; and » With the bulk of climate change policy implementation actions now to

be implemented by the sub-national governments, the capacity building programmes relating to policy formulations, climate proofing of developmental projects, natural capital management and institutional strengthening shall have to be increasingly implemented at sub-national level

Table 3: Capacity Building Needs

Sector Action Potential interventions

Energy

Awareness raising through promotion of Energy Standards and Labeling (ESL) for manufacturers

and importers, and promotion for

consumers

y Training/advisory support in awareness raising for ESL from agencies and countries that have implemented such programmes

y Training through technical courses organized in Pakistan and abroad

y Training/advisory support for financial institutions on designing and implementing fiscal instruments

y Development of national systems for regulating the renewables and improving institutional / technical linkages with key players in the private sector

Technical expertise in developing, installing

and maintaining solar and wind power

sources

y Training through technical courses organized in Pakistan and abroad

Public sector capacity for promoting, regulating and

monitoring energy Efficiency

y Development of capacity to monitor and verify progress on the enforcement of ESL.

Transport

Awareness raising and provision of incentives

for efficient vehicle Operations

y Development of awareness materials and demonstration events in cities to show how to maintain vehicles efficiently

y Training of vehicle service providers through short courses on dissemination of information to vehicle owners and users

y Preparation of training materials for financial institutions on loan packages to finance efficiency improvements in the vehicle fleet

y Visits of representatives from financial institutions to countries where such loans schemes have been successful

Upgrading and modernization of rail

services

y Training of government officials at the national, regional and city levels on monitoring and evaluating mitigation programs and on methods of management for modern rail systems

y Training of technical staff to operate modern rail systems

Upgrading and development of efficient public

transport systems

y Training of government officials at the national, regional and city levels on monitoring and evaluating mitigation programs and on methods of management for public urban transport systems

y Training of technical staff to operate modern urban transport systems



Sector Action Potential interventionsPublic sector capacity

to monitor and evaluate programs of mitigation and

effectively manage the modernized rail and

energy efficient public transport systems

y Visits of transport specialists to Pakistan y Training of public sector officials on regulating and monitoring modern transport systems

y Study visits of Pakistan staff to countries with modern rail and bus rapid transport in cities

Agriculture

Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)

y Training programs on climate change and CSA for national, sub-national and local authorities by national and international experts

y Training programs on climate change and CSA financing needs for banks and micro-finance institutions

y Farmer field schools focused on specific CSA activities (e.g. soil conservation).

y Exposure visits of farmer groups to different regions to learn about specific CSA activities

y Curriculum development/enhancement within universities and technical institutes providing training for extensions workers on climate change and CSA practices

Strengthening Risk Management system

y Training of extension workers in risk management and risk transfer mechanism

y Developing an institutional set-up for providing agriculture insurance

y Farmer field schools to build awareness of agriculture insurance options

y Study tours of government officials / members of the financial sector in other relevant countries

y Pre-feasibility study to assess viability and capacity gaps pertaining to the development of national weather index insurance system


Pakistan Climate Change Policy Response

3



The national policies on Climate Change and development priorities are reflected in the following government policies:

3.1. Pakistan Vision 2025

The perspective plan, “Pakistan Vision 2025” recognizes climate changes as one of its priority areas. It states that climate change had already begun to impose steep social and economic costs, especially in developing countries. These costs have manifested themselves conspicuously in Pakistan, and include high intensity floods (Flash floods & Glacial lake outburst floods), avalanches and land-slides; persistent drought, sea water intrusion, and cyclone. These disasters have direct and major impact on vital considerations like water, energy, and food security. The Vision 2025 recognizing the impact of vulnerability to climate change and increased frequency and severity of recurring natural disasters, sets out the following key goals for responding climate change induced challenges;

» Design water, food and energy security policies and plans of the country with specific reference to the profound challenges posed by climate change.

» Explicit recognition of the relevant risks (and associated economic and social costs and implementation of well-defined mitigation and adaptation strategies/ measures).

» To promote long term sustainability, conservation and protection of natural resources.

3.2. National Climate Change Policy

The goal of National Climate Change Policy 2012 is to ensure that climate change is mainstreamed in the economically and socially vulnerable sectors of the economy and to steer Pakistan towards climate resilient development. Major policy objectives include the following:

3. Pakistan Climate Change Policy Response

“The Vision 2025 recognizing the impact of vulnerability to climate change and increased frequency and severity of recurring natural disasters.”



» To pursue sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges of climate change;

» To focus on pro-poor gender sensitive adaptation while also promoting mitigation to the extent possible in a cost-effective manner;

» To ensure water, food and energy security of the country in the face of the challenges posed by climate change;

» To enhance the awareness, skill and institutional capacity of relevant stakeholders.

The policy recognizes that developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socioeconomic development. Hence, it is essential that they work together to face these challenges. Pakistan is committed to engage vigorously with the international community to find solutions and help the world towards a new era of global cooperation on climate change. Moreover, the policy focuses on adoption of innovative technological solutions to solve the climate change challenges of mitigation for reduction of GHG emissions in the energy including industries and buildings; agriculture and livestock; forestry; and transport sectors. The Policy recommends following measures in this regard:

a. Ensure that the technology needs to support actions on mitigation and adaptation are nationally determined and are based on national priorities;

b. Promote the development and use of local technologies, based on innovation and technological advancement in the field of climate change, as an effective way to implement adaptation and mitigation measures;

c. Prepare detailed area analysis for possible wind and solar energy sites in Pakistan, and establish regional partnerships for technology transfer and development;

d. Seek technological breakthroughs to harness the potential of geothermal energy in the northern mountain areas of Pakistan;

e. Explore new technological breakthroughs in the field of bio-fuels; f. Obtain and introduce clean coal technologies; g. Ensure technology transfer for the design and manufacture of emission

monitoring equipment, to be installed near urban and industrial areas in Pakistan;

h. Establish a base for technology transfer and absorption at technical institutes, engineering colleges and universities;

i. Ensure transfer of technology for designing electric/ hybrid vehicles in Pakistan; j. Develop new breeds of crops and livestock, which are less vulnerable to climate

change impacts. k. Ensure the access and effective use of opportunities available internationally

for adaptation and mitigation efforts, e.g. through the Green Climate Fund (GCF), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Adaptation Fund (AF), Global Environmental Facility (GEF), World Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and Carbon credit trading.

“Pakistan is committed to engage vigorously with the international community to find solutions and help the world towards a new era of global cooperation on climate change.”



l. Incorporate an appropriate role for women into the decision-making process on climate change mitigation initiatives;

m. Undertake a comprehensive study of the gender-differentiated impacts of climate change with particular focus on gender difference in capabilities to cope with climate change mitigation strategies in Pakistan.

n. Plan the necessary expansion of nuclear power for Pakistan’s energy security while ensuring the highest safety standards

3.3. Framework for Implementation of NCCP

The development of this Framework for Implementation of NCCP is a follow-up of the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), the parent document providing broader framework concerning how to adapt to the changing impacts of climate and how to play a role in its mitigation. This Framework for Implementation of NCCP is developed keeping in view the current and future anticipated climate change threats to Pakistan’s various sectors.

In view of Pakistan’s high vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change, in particular extreme events, like the policy document adaptation effort is the focus of this Framework for Implementation of NCCP document too. The vulnerabilities of various sectors to climate change have been highlighted and appropriate adaptation actions spelled out. These cover actions to address issues in various sectors such as water, agriculture, forestry, coastal areas, biodiversity, health and other vulnerable ecosystems. Notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan’s contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very small, its role as a responsible member of the global community in combating climate change has been highlighted by giving due importance to mitigation efforts in sectors such as energy, forestry, transport, industries, urban planning, agriculture and livestock.

Furthermore, appropriate actions relating to disaster preparedness, capacity building, institutional strengthening; and awareness raising in relevant sectors has also been part of this document.

This Framework for Implementation of NCCP has been developed not as an end in itself, but rather a catalyst for mainstreaming climate change concerns into decision making that will create enabling conditions for integrated climate compatible development processes. It is therefore not a stand-alone document, but rather an integral and synergistic complement to future planning in the country. Further, this Framework for Implementation of NCCP is designed as a ‘living document’. This is because we are still uncertain about the timing and exact magnitude of many of the likely impacts of climate change. We will continue to deepen our understanding of the phenomenon, as we continue to implement our adaptation and mitigation programmes. We will also keep ourselves informed of the latest developments in the science of Climate Change and from experiences in other parts of the world, including through our participation in the process of UNFCCC and related fora. Therefore, we anticipate periodical revision and

“Framework for Implementation of NCCP is developed keeping in view the current and future anticipated climate change threats to Pakistan’s various sectors.”



updating of this Framework for Implementation of NCCP document to address emerging concepts and issues in the ever-evolving science of climate change.

It is also expected that this document will be used to prepare the detailed provincial and local adaptation action plans. In addition, it will also provide a basis and form the building block that will lead to the development of a National Adaptation Plan (NAP), National Appropriate Mitigation Action(NAMAs) Framework and the preparation of the Second National Communication to UNFCCC.

3.4. National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy

The National DRR Policy provides an overall guiding framework for addressing the high levels of disaster risk permeating Pakistani Society. It covers both natural and man-made hazards. The policy seeks to promote priority measures to ameliorate already existing vulnerability to hazards, and equally important measures to ensure future development processes and programs strengthen resilience. The policy serves as a guiding framework both for DRR and relevant development plans and programs to focus attention upon priority issues. Pakistan is one of the signatories of the UN Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. At the core of the HFA lies the integration of risk reduction as an essential component of national development policies and programs. The earthquake in 2005 highlighted Pakistan’s vulnerability to disaster risks and motivated a shift from the erstwhile response-focused to the current, more proactive approach. This shift found its first expression in the National Disaster Management Ordinance (NDMO, 2006, replaced in 2010 by the current National Disaster Management - NDM Act), followed up by the National Disaster Risk Management Framework (NDRMF) (2007-2012) that outlined a comprehensive national DRR agenda. The policy is based upon an extensive review of existing background documentation including assessments, relevant frameworks, policies and plans. The building blocks of the current DRR policy reflect the priority actions of the HFA and are within the NDM Act 2010 that decentralized responsibilities for the implementation of DRR to the provincial and district level. The policy is based upon consultations with district, provincial and national government stakeholders as well as civil society actors and development partners.

3.5. National Sustainable Development Strategy 2012

The National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) defines sustainable development and the pathway to a “green economy” in Pakistan’s context. The overall focus of NSDS in the environmental context is on safeguarding the environment by:

» Conserving and enhancing the natural resource base while protecting biodiversity and managing fragile ecosystems through an integrated natural resource management approach.

» Enhancing the life support system by addressing air and water pollution and reducing the ecological footprint of growth through strengthening the regulatory framework and community based interventions.

“The National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy serves as a guiding framework both for DRR and relevant development plans and programs to focus attention upon priority issues.”



» Preparing for climate change and its accompanying uncertainties through comprehensive adaptation and mitigation planning and concrete implementation measures.

3.6. National Energy Conservation Policy (2007)

The National Energy Conservation Policy (2007) focuses on energy efficiency and conservation measures to reduce CO2 emissions and help Pakistan meet its international climate change responsibilities. The policy underlines that a unit of energy conserved is a unit of energy produced. Efficient use of energy in various sectors of economy to reduce adverse local environmental effects which are otherwise attributed to energy inefficiency and wasteful energy use practices is an important goal of the policy. Provision of energy to rural areas serves the goals of gender equality and mainstreaming energy conservation as a part of development policy process. The policy also provides sectoral guidelines for industrial; transport; building and household; Agriculture including livestock and forestry sectors.

3.7. National Operational Strategy for Clean Development Mechanism 2006

This operational strategy has been developed to fulfill the requirements of establishing a Designated National Authority (DNA) and ensuring transparent, participatory and effective management of CDM process in the country. The strategy describes the functions and powers of the DNA and the national approval process. It builds on preliminary studies for initial projects including Asia Least Cost TNA Report, Climate Change Mitigation, Pakistan 6 Greenhouse Gases Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) and Pakistan’s Initial Communication on Climate Change, which provides a general framework for operating CDM in Pakistan.

3.8. Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (Pak-INDC)

The Pak-INDC Report is being submitted by Pakistan in compliance with its obligations under the UNFCCC process and in recognition of its responsibility to the comity of nations. It demonstrates the country’s resolve to respect the COP-21 mandate and to highlight its commitment to addressing the issues of climate change and associated challenges.

Pak-INDC broadly articulates the major challenges faced by the country, which are likely to intensify in future as a result of climate-induced variability and natural disasters. Actions already underway for reducing GHG emissions and adaptation by way of managing disasters and building resilience capacities are also enunciated. These actions represent Pakistan’s contribution to the global effort towards meeting the ultimate UNFCCC objectives and stabilizing the concentration of GHG emissions into the atmosphere, as stipulated in Article 2 of the Convention.

“Provision of energy to rural areas serves the goals of gender equality and mainstreaming energy conservation as a part of development policy process.”



Adoption of the Paris Agreement has further reinforced the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC and has provided a framework for its realization in a more intense manner with a long-term perspective. The global consensus on limiting temperature increase to below 2 degrees Centigrade is an endorsement of the scientific conclusions reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and provides safeguards for vulnerable regions and countries of the world from irreversible adverse consequences. In doing so, the urgent need for undertaking adaptation measures by all groups of countries has also been underscored. Moreover, it needs to be recognized that without provision of adequate finance, technology development and transfer and capacity building, the consequences for developing countries are likely to remain catastrophic.

Being one of the most climate-change vulnerable countries in the world, Pakistan’s economy is already under severe strain from prevailing and likely future threats of climate change. Adverse climate-related impacts are draining public funds from essential social requirements towards disaster management. The livelihood of the poor and the underprivileged segments of society is particularly at risk from the ever-increasing exposure to natural calamities, such as flash floods, riverine overflows, heavy monsoons, cyclones, droughts and heat waves. As a lower riparian state situated in a semi-arid region, Pakistan also needs to remain watchful of the implications of its water-stressed situation.

The Pak-INDC Report presents the overall GHG emissions profile and future projections, by taking into consideration both the present and future socio-economic parameters, changes in the demographic dynamics and emerging energy needs. It also demonstrates mitigation and adaptation measures already being implemented in Pakistan. The challenges and difficulties being faced by the country and those likely to be confronted in the coming years are also discussed. Efforts have also been made to undertake an assessment of economic and financial implications of different measures which the country shall adopt in order to realize the mitigation and adaptation potential. An economic analysis has also been carried out, in the form of sector-specific abatement costs, which will allow framing of current and future mitigation measures in a measurable costing framework and also enable prioritization of forthcoming mitigation and adaptation actions.

Pak-INDC derives its strength from Pakistan’s Vision 2025, a major policy document which provides a roadmap for national development until the year 2025. Vision 2025 rests on seven pillars for driving growth and development to transform Pakistan into a vibrant and prosperous nation. It envisages adding 25,000 MW of electricity to the national grid by 2025, even though the latest estimates and policy shifts actually necessitate much higher energy supplies. The elimination of current energy demand-supply gap by 2018 and optimizing the energy mix of oil, gas, hydro, coal, nuclear, solar, wind and biomass are some of the key priorities of the policy. Guided by this strategic plan, the Pak-INDC has also benefited from the Government of Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy as well as the National Policy on Disaster Risk Reduction, draft National Water Policy and draft National Flood Protection Plan-IV. Additionally, declared



national policies on energy efficiency, alternative energy and other policy documents have also been referenced.

Pak-INDC outlines a broad range of potential adaptation and mitigation measures. It also lists the challenges associated with the realization of these measures in both current and future scenarios. These are the measures that can lead Pakistan to a climate compatible and low carbon development pathway, provided adequate technical and financial resources are made available by global partners and international development and finance institutions. It would be prudent to stress that these indicators of potential reduction in GHG emissions and adaptation activities should not be considered as an international obligation of the country, unless the resource provisioning is ensured. Furthermore, our projected emissions, adaptation needs and abatement costs are based on present government’s plans and actions, which may be adjusted and reviewed, as deemed appropriate.

3.9. Technology Needs Assessment (TNA)

By recognizing Pakistan’s high vulnerability to climate change impacts, Pakistan adopts TNA process to identify and prioritize adaptation / mitigation technologies for its climate sensitive sectors. TNA process takes a three-tiered approach for finalizing its technology needs. The first level of analysis caters to the country’s developmental priorities in context of its socio-economic demographic and geographic conditions, and the level of climate change risk it is exposed to. It reviews various national and sector-specific development plans, policies and strategies, for example, National Climate Change Policy (2012), water and agriculture draft policies, annual development plans, Vision 2025 etc. It also identifies sector specific vulnerability to impacts of climate change, and important technologies that would help in leading to low-vulnerability pathways in the long run in the face of climate change. The second level of analysis identifies and assess sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Informed by first level of analyses, it finalizes a short list of prioritized sectors with a stakeholder engagement and consultation in the process. The third level of analysis focuses on identifying technologies that would help the government meets its low vulnerability pathway ambitions.

“By recognizing Pakistan’s high vulnerability to climate change impacts, Pakistan adopts Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) process to identify and prioritize adaptation/ mitigation technologies for its climate sensitive sectors.”



Table 4: Summary of INDC/NDC targets

Summary of INDC/NDC targets Estimated resources required USD $

Conditional

Adaptation: Government of Pakistan is in the process of developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) at the national level for creating a framework of action to guide the implementing agencies on mainstreaming of medium and long-term climate change efforts into policies, strategies and programmes. This is to provide capacity support for a more coordinated approach within and among different levels and tiers of the government.

Along with NAP, sectoral and sub-national adaptation plans would also be prepared, that would incorporate the recommendations and actions considered so far. These plans would enable the sub-national governments in prioritizing their adaptation needs and allocating corresponding financial resources.

USD 7 to 14 Billion per annum

Mitigation: Pakistan intends to reduce up to 20 % of its 2030 projected GHG emissions subject to the availability of international grants to meet the total abetment cost for the indicated 20% reduction amounting to about USD 40 billion at current prices.

Unconditional


Country Agenda and GCF Engagement

4



4.1. Institutional Arrangements

In order to achieve the objectives of these policy initiatives, the country has considerably improved and strengthened its climate governance structure over time. Climate change and environmental protection have been extensively recognized in national long-term plans, annual Economic Surveys of Pakistan, annual budgets and associated Public Sector Development Programmes (PSDP). Specific budgetary allocations have been made at national and sub-national levels for execution of the Framework for Implementation of the Climate Change Policy.

Specific activities and responsibilities relating to climate change concerns are coordinated by the Ministry of Climate Change at the national level with corresponding support from the sub-national governments. The Ministry of Climate Change also works in tandem with the other concerned federal authorities, research institutions, universities and private sector organizations.

The Ministry of Climate Change is responsible for supervising and controlling several attached departments and implementation agencies, namely: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) and Zoological Survey Department of Pakistan (ZSD). It also has specialized wings to deal with matters relating to Environment and Forestry.

At the operational level, frequent interaction is maintained with the Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD), Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Federal Flood Commission (FFC), Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), National Energy Conservation Centre (ENERCON), Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) and many private sector organizations.

The National Climate Change Policy and its Framework for Implementation make key recommendations relating to mitigation measures in different sectors including energy, agriculture and forestry. Both documents also provide the policy framework on

4. Country Agenda and GCF Engagement



adaptation measures with particular focus on water, agriculture and livestock, coastal areas, Indus deltaic region, forests and other vulnerable ecosystem.

Technical Needs Assessment (TNA) for climate change mitigation is being undertaken with the assistance of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Preliminary results of the TNA exercise identify a host of mitigation technologies in energy, agriculture and transport sectors with a vast potential for mitigation ready to be harnessed but which remain unrealized due to financial and technical challenges. Only a fraction of the small hydel potential of about 3,000 MW for power generation in the shape of micro and small-scale hydro plants has so far been realized. Similarly, solar photovoltaic and thermal technologies for power generation, water pumping, solar geysers and other renewable energy-uses can curtail GHG emissions. A sizeable potential also exists in making the buildings energy-efficient and achieving fuel efficiency in the transport sector.

Moreover, the agriculture sector offers promising potential for rationalizing the use of fertilizers and improving soil carbon management, promoting use of biogas as a fuel and sustainable forest management for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The wetlands in Pakistan have also been recognized as promising areas for carbon sequestration.

Other key areas relate to (a) establishment of organizational structure at the national and sub-national levels; (b) use of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other market mechanisms to support climate change activities; (c) capacity building; and (d) financing of climate change regime using national and international resources. The Ministry is actively reviewing policy considerations for further integration of market mechanisms in responding to emerging threats in the context of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

One of the key recent developments is formulation of the Pakistan Climate Change Act, which has been approved by the Cabinet and will be introduced in Parliament for enactment in its next session. The proposed Act envisages an over-arching Pakistan Climate Change Council headed by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, with representation of the sub-national governments at the Chief Ministerial level. It also envisages establishment of a high-powered Pakistan Climate Change Authority and Pakistan Climate Change Fund. The Fund would mobilize resources from both domestic and international sources for providing finances to support mitigation and adaptation initiatives in the country.

Pakistan’s Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR), undertaken by United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in 2015 shows that the total estimated federal climate-related expenditure remained between 5.8 and 7.6 percent of total federal expenditures. The relative proportion of the climate-relevant budget spent on adaptation and mitigation varied significantly; adaptation varied between 25 and 60 percent and mitigation between 30 and 71 percent (combined adaptation and mitigation

“One of the key recent developments is formulation of the Pakistan Climate Change Act, which has been approved by the Cabinet.”



benefits were a maximum of 11 percent). While the fiscal space for climate-related development expenditures is tight, it is nonetheless growing.

4.2. Engagement with Donors

The following table provided description of engagement with international development partners in Pakistan for operationalization of GCF agenda, to-date.

Table 5: Relationships with existing Accredited Entities and relevant partners

Entity/ Partner Name

Area/s of focus Engagement in countryEfforts to

strengthen engagement

UNDP

The United Nations Development Programme is an international organization with a strong global presence and mandate concentrated on development, with a focus on sustainable development, climate change and disaster resilience, and governance.

Pakistan is a key development partner supporting the Government of Pakistan in achieving its own development objectives as well as to develop policies, leadership skills, partnering abilities, institutional capabilities and build resilience in order to sustain development results. In 2016, UNDP is continuing its work to support the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), or Global Goals, as they help shape global sustainable development for the next 15 years

GCF Board-Pakistan observer status.Got one project approved from GCF while currently working on GCF projects pipeline.

FAO

The FAO main goals are the eradication of hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition; the elimination of poverty and the driving forward of economic and social progress for all; and the sustainable management and utilization of natural resources, including land, water, air, climate and genetic resources for the benefit of present and future generations

Over the past decade alone, FAO has implemented more than USD 293 million worth of projects (including emergency) in Pakistan, as well as carried out USD 82.41 million worth of regional projects which have benefitted Pakistan. FAO projects are funded by the organization’s own funds, bilateral and multi-lateral aid agencies and governments including the Government of Pakistan.

GCF Board-Pakistan observer status.Working on GCF projects pipeline.






World Bank

The World Bank is an international organization with a strong global presence and mandate to reduce poverty by promoting sustainable economic development. World Bank works in partnership with developing countries through national governments in order to support the coordinated delivery of its projects and programmes in various sectors and through the use of various financial instruments, including grants, loans and guarantees.

As of April, 2017, the World Bank Pakistan portfolio has 29 investment lending projects under implementation with a total net commitment of $5.4 billion. During fiscal year 2016, the World Bank commitments amounted to almost $2.3 billion. FY17 commitments to date are approximately $0.8 billion. IFC’s advisory services program in Pakistan is one of its largest in the region, with 17 active projects and a funding commitment of about $25 million


Acumen

The Acumen Fund, Inc. is an impact investment fund with almost 15 years’ experience in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that serve low-income communities in developing countries primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Acumen has a successful track record in sourcing and executing equity investment opportunities in the clean energy, agriculture and health-care sectors, which provide environmental and livelihood impacts.

Since 2002 Acumen is supporting companies serving low-income communities in new ways. Our investments span from affordable housing and microfinance to improving milk-yields and safe drinking water

GCF Board-Pakistan observer status. Working on GCF projects pipeline.

UNEP

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is an international entity whose mandate is to promote sustainable development and prudent use of the global environment.

UNEP assists many countries to achieve resilient, low-emission pathways through its flagship programmes in adaptation, forestry, energy efficiency and transition to sustainable development. Its key activities include promoting investment in clean technologies in order to reduce emissions, protecting biodiversity and ecosystems, alleviating poverty, and ecosystem-based adaptation in order to reduce human vulnerability and strengthen resilience to the impacts of climate change







IUCN

IUCN overall programme of work focuses on valuing and conserving nature, ensuring effective and equitable governance of its use, and deploying nature-based solutions to global challenges such as climate change.

IUCN Pakistan focus on biodiversity conservation, particularly in the country’s coastal and forest areas, and addressing ongoing challenges to ecosystems and biodiversity preservation, especially in the face of climate change impacts. Work in the country is delivered with a major thrust toward building strong and lasting partnerships with the public sector on new environmental initiatives


KfW

The Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) is an international organization that works together with its partners in developing countries in order to identify projects/programmes which promote sustainable development. With a development mandate that receives funding from both public and private sector organizations, KfW’s activities largely focus on climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. These activities include improving water supply, securing food provision, increasing energy efficiency, employing renewable energies and others. The climate finance activities of KfW include a range of financial instruments, including grants, loans, equity and guarantees.

KfW is supporting the Pakistani government in the fields of energy supply, health care, good governance and financial system development – thereby helping to tap unused development potential.







ADB

ADB works in many areas to address climate change, however its main focus and expertise are in the following subject matter: clean energy, sustainable transport and urban development, land use and forests for carbon sequestration, climate resilient development, as well as strengthening related policies, governance and institutions.

The Government of Pakistan has worked with ADB to strengthen the country’s key infrastructure, boost social and environmental safeguards, and promote information sharing with other countries. The country partnership strategy, 2015-2019 for Pakistan continues to focus on infrastructure development and institutional reforms. It outlines financial assistance in six key sectors: energy; transport; agriculture, natural resources, and rural development; water and other urban infrastructure and services; public sector management; and finance


WWF

The World Wildlife Fund, Inc. (WWF), is an international non-governmental organization. The work of WWF has evolved from saving species and landscapes to addressing the larger global environmental threats and forces that impact them, with people at the centre of its work, and organized around six priority areas for improved environmental management comprising climate, forests, food, freshwater, wildlife and oceans.

WWF-Pakistan has an average of 30 active projects implemented throughout Pakistan to achieve nature conservation and sustainable development goals


4.3. Roles and contributions of key stakeholders

In order to implement GCF Programme efficiently, engagement with key stakeholders is very important. For that reason, GCF Board-Pakistan has been constituted having representation of all relevant stakeholder at federal and provincial level. Provinces have the main role to conceive and implement the project on ground while federal government is always there for necessary guidance, The GCF Board-Pakistan provides the basis for engagement with the relevant authorities moreover training at regular intervals were also convened for capacity building and awareness raising of Federal ministries and provincial departments about GCF guidelines. During development of GCF country Programme consultative workshops were convened the provinces,



accredited entities, NGOs and civil society organizations were invited and presented by their senior management. In light of GCF Strategic Impact areas the participants presented their priority areas and projects for GCF funding. The project once approved will be implemented in the provinces through relevant provincial departments. During the consultation process it was also concluded that in order to better implement the Country programme the conversion of proposed concepts into financeable and bankable project is necessary and for that GCF technical / financial assistance will be required.

Table 6: Overview of Consultation Processes

Stakeholder Group Date of Consultation Type or Objective of Consultation Outcome

Stakeholders Consultation Workshop under GCF Readiness Support Project for NDA Pakistan

March 13th and 14th, 2017

To take feedback from relevant departments/ministries of provincial and federal governments and private sector development organizations/experts on finalization of climate change initiative priorities for Pakistan under future engagement with Greeen Cliamte Fund (GCF)

Feedback taken, recorded and made part of the country framework developed

4.4. Country Agenda and GCF Engagement

During last three years and after attending GCF orientation session for Pakistan held during September, 2015 number of efforts were made for the engagement with GCF Secretariat. For that reason, with support of GCF Secretariat and under their continuous guidance Pakistan have applied for GCF readiness package and also submitted its pipeline GLOF-II project titled “Scaling-up of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Risk Reduction in Northern Pakistan”. Pakistan readiness activities are currently under implementation while Pakistan also got approved its 1st USD 37.5 million grant project from GCF.



4.4.1. Country Projects/Programmes Pipeline

Pakistan current pipeline detail for GCF funding is given below:

Project Title-1: Scaling-up of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk reduction in Northern Pakistan

Description Accredited Entity Submission timeframe

The objective of the proposed project is to empower communities to identify and manage the risks associated with GLOFs and other related impacts of climate change, strengthen public service systems to lower the risk of GLOF related disasters.

Output 1: Strengthened sub-national institutional capacities to plan and implement climate change -resilient development pathways

Output 2: Community-based EWS and long-term measures are up-scaled to increase communities’ adaptive capacity

UNDP Submitted in Nov 2015

Fund level strategic impacts Total financing StatusE.g (1,4) GCF:

US$ 37MOther:

US$ 0,5MApproved at B.14

Action Lead TimelineE.g.: Finalization of feasibility studies AESubmission of proposal AE

Project Title-2: Building Climate Resilient Coastal Communities and Ecosystems in Asia


12 country project that also covers Pakistan IUCN March 2017

Fund level strategic impacts Total financing Status7, 8 GCF:

US$ 77.89MOther: FP received

Action Lead TimelineFP received GCF



4.4.2. Country Project Preparation Pipeline

Project Title-1: Transformation to Climate Smart Agriculture of most Vulnerable Zones of Pakistan


Project objective is to introduce Climate smart agriculture at gross root level to ensure food security, improved livelihood and reduce green-house gas emissions.

FAO March 2017


US$ 33MOther: Proposal is

under review with FAO

regional office. PPF application

under development

Action Lead TimelineDevelopment and submission of PPF request to GCF

FAO

Project Title-2: Adoption of Climate Smart livestock interventions and bio energy generation in Pakistan


The objective of the Project is to create an enabling environment for the adoption of Climate Smart Livestock approach; y To reduce emissions and improve resilience of rural community whose livelihood is dependent on livestock and most vulnerable to climate change impacts in Pakistan.

y To develop and disseminate environment-friendly and cost-effective technologies and management practices

y Bio-energy generation from organic waste for sustainable development in agriculture to attain cost-effective farming systems and reduce greenhouse gas emission.

y Production of biogas from livestock wastes of dairy farms to capture and utilize the CH4 gas as a source of bio energy.

y Conduct diagnostic studies to evaluate the existing pattern of organic-wastes disposal/utilization and the amount of green-house gases emitted in a time span.

y Management and utilization of bio-digesters’ slurry as source of bio-fertilizer to substitute the chemical fertilizer, the main source of greenhouse gases at the stage of manufacturing

FAO December, 2017



y Restoration of degraded grazing lands y Promotion and adoption of alternative energy sources.

y To conserve forest coverFund level strategic impacts Total financing Status

GCF: US$ 33M

Other: FP under development

Action Lead TimelineFP to be developed by FAO FAO

Project Title-3: Development of Climate Change Resilient Natural Resource base to support livelihood of vulnerable communities in upland watersheds


The immediate objectives are as follows: (i) To create enabling environment and mainstream CC in sectoral development planning; (ii) Protect/conserve environmental based assets of the State and downstream areas of River Jhelum and Chenab through Integrated watershed management and sequestering carbon to safeguard vital physical infrastructure downstream in Pakistan; (iii) Undertake CC adaptations and mitigation measures in watershed management to promote social and economic development; (iv) Reduced risks and vulnerabilities of communities from natural disasters and extreme weather events;(v) Fulfil the obligations of international community to mitigate climate change impacts; (vi) Diversified livelihoods and income generation to reduce dependence and pressure on natural resources.In order to achieve the above objective, the project has been designed into two components:

IUCN December,2017


US$ 34MOther:

US$ 24MFP under

development and review in IUCN regional

officeAction Lead Timeline

IUCN country office will be submitting the FP for GEF FP endorsement

IUCN



4.4.3. Country Readiness Programme Pipeline

Project Title-1: Identifying and strengthening an NDA; development of a country programme

Description Delivery Partner Submission timeframe

For activity area 1, implementation will support the NDA (once identified) to establish a multi-stakeholder coordination mechanism and no-objection procedure for Pakistan, among other activities.

For activity area 2, the NDA/FP, will identify and map the investment areas aligned with the national and provincial objectives and priorities for the GCF in order to develop a country programme. The focus is to facilitate coordination, stakeholder engagement, review, and monitoring of GCF activities across the various national/sub-national/international intermediaries.

Implementation for the above activities will be carried out by NRSP as a delivery partner in Pakistan, under the guidance and leadership of the MoCC in its role as the NDA/FP for the GCF. level strategic impacts

National Rural Support Programme (NRSP)

12 months

Total financing Status

GCF: US$ 300K

Under implementation through NRSP

Action Lead Timeline

E.g NDA, Delivery Partner, GCF

Project Title-2: Accreditation support to NRSP


Developing an action plan to meet the ESS, gender and fiduciary standards for GCF accreditation.

PwC


GCF: Disbursed


E.g NDA, Delivery Partner, GCF



Project Title-3: Building Capacity to Advance National Adaptation Plan Process in Pakistan


National Adaptation Plan process that has the objective of: a. Reducing the vulnerability to the impacts

of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience;

b. Facilitating the integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels.

The reduction of vulnerability will then be achieved through implementation of adaptation programmes and projects emanating from the NAP process, facilitating the integration of climate change adaptation into existing strategies, policies, legal frameworks, and programmes. The current proposal aims to achieve this through:a. The development and enhancement

of ‘country capacity’ to promote CCA at systemic, institutional and individual levels; and help poor and climate vulnerable communities in adapting to and building resilience to climate change impacts;

b. Contribution to reduce climate vulnerability by integrating CCA into existing and new policies, strategies, legal frameworks (legislation and regulations) and programmes;

c. Establishment and/strengthening of a system to generate and share knowledge, experience, lessons learned, gaps and needs at international (NAP Expo, side-events during COPs sessions and SBs meetings), national and sub-national levels to advance CCA for the benefit of the poor people and restoration of ecosystem restoration; and

d. Development of a strategy to implement, monitor and communicate adaptation benefits at different levels.

UNEP 12 months


GCF: US$ 3M

Under review with GCF

Secretariat


With GCF for review UNEP, NDA, GCF



Project Title-4: Identifying and Supporting Potential National Entities for accessing and utilizing GCF Resources efficiently and effectively in Pakistan


Pakistan’s request for support from the GCF’s readiness and preparatory programme in Readiness area 3 “Direct Access realized” is aimed in particular for1. Identifying and Supporting the potential

national implementing entities for GCF accreditation

2. Cooperating with the State Bank of Pakistan to raise awareness on the GCF among commercial banks, identify potential implementing entities among the commercial banks and support them in the first steps towards GCF accreditation and in addressing the specific challenges of the financial sector in Pakistan with regard to the access to international climate finance.

GIZ August, 2017


GCF: 306,000 Euro

Submitted to GCF for initial

comments


With GCF for review E.g NDA, Delivery Partner, GCF

July-August,2017

4.5. Proposed Country Project Profile for GCF

During the implementation of GCF readiness support number of consultations were held between the consultants, NDA, Federal and provincial line departments to identify the priority areas and their alignment with the Pakistan’s Climate Change policy, its implementation framework and GCF strategic impact areas. In result of said efforts following priority areas/ concepts were identified from across the country.

Table 7: Priority areas/ concepts identified from across the country

National Level

1 Promotion of Climate Smart Livestock Interventions and on Farm Bio Energy Generation in Pakistan. (CSLBE)

2 Transformation to Climate Smart Agriculture of Most Vulnerable Agricultural Zones of Pakistan (TCSA)

3 Improving Resilience of Local (Rice) Farmer Communities to Climate Change Impacts by Promotion of Climate Resilient Farming Systems in Pakistan (IRLF-CRFS)

4 Pakistan Solar and Renewable Energy Project (PSREP)

5 Greening Public Buildings

6 Waste to energy project for Islamabad



7 Access to financial (microfinance etc) and technical services for agriculture and livestock farmers, enterprises and HHs for addressing issues associated with food security, agriculture and forest protection, promotion of renewable energies across the country etc

Azad Jammu & Kashmir

1 Development of Climate Change Resilient Natural Resource base to support livelihood of vulnerable communities in upland watersheds

2 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation through Efficient Environmental Governance, Capacity Building & Institutional strengthening, Conservation & Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

3 Upstream Investment Safeguarding Downstream Assets

Balochistan

1 Livelihood Improvement for Coastal Communities of Balochistan

2 Quetta the Resilient City

3 Environmental Monitoring System

4 Soil & Water Conservation for Climate Change Adaptation in Upland districts of Balochistan

5 Desertification control program in districts of Nushki, Chagai, Kharan, Washuk, Gwadar, Killa Saifullah Killa Abdullah and Loralai

6 Program for Conservation of Chilghoza forests in Balochistan

7 Program for Conservation of Juniper forests in Balochistan

Punjab

1 Commercialization opportunities for fly ash utilization produced in the Punjab

2 Enhanced environmental quality monitoring system for Punjab’s air surface and ground water resources

3 Business Loan Program for GHG emissions reduction in brick kiln in Punjab

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

1 Addressing the drivers of Deforestation in Malakand civil Division of KP in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation through integrated and collaborative NRM

2 Collaborative and integrated watershed management in Critical Western Arid Watersheds of KPK to address environmental degradation, create resilience against climate change borne adverse impacts and water stresses.

3 Reducing vulnerability and strengthening resilience of communities in the context of climate change and other threats in KPK.

4 Development of the National Forest Monitoring System; pilot implementation of the REDD+NFMS Action Plan in KPK province.

Sindh

1 Water Quality Monitoring of Surface Water Resources of Sindh

2 Revival of Dhoros (Puran, Digiri, 7 Sohni) Siphon super Passages (12) & LBOD Escape

3 Bio saline Agriculture-Cultivation of salicornia Crop (salt loving crop) on an area of 200 Acres in the coastal Zone of Sindh

4 Community based livelihood enhancement of fishermen villages of Thatta Badin



5 Monitoring of Vehicle and Industries to Examine GHG emissions with the objective to Formulate Sindh Environmental Quality standards (SEQS) for Vehicular & Industrial Air Emissions

6 The Protective Plantation of Mangroves in Coastal Areas and Left Bank project

7 Construction of Left Bank Surface Drains (South Mirpur & Ghotki Drains)

8 Construction of Left Bank Surface Drains (Tando M Khan, Tando Adam, Digri Drains)

9 Revival of Dhoros (Bhai Khan, Pithoro, Naro Hakro, Pangrio, & Other Dhoros)

10 Production of Bio-Fertilizers for Assistance of small Growers of Sindh

FATA

1 Integrated Natural Resource Management in FATA

The pipeline of priority concepts listed above comes in result of the continues consultations whether its through GCF readiness deployment or through NDA consultations and training provided to the relevant stakeholders during last few years. The concept listed above are on an initial stage and will be further developed after taking on board the accreditation entities and arrangement of funds for conversion of concepts into full funding proposals. Currently the resources available with GCF are of great importance for us because of the fact that GEF and Adaptation funds are dry due to limited funds so the focus is to avail GCF resources which will be helpful for us to address our climate change issues. The private sector has a key role and is on board for availing GCF resources the focus in also on the development of bankable projects through public private partnership. Where possible an analysis of the methodology used in the prioritization process can be provided as an Annex to the Country Programme. Through GCF Board-Pakistan which have the presence of all relevant federal and provincial stakeholders NDA has organized number of knowledge sharing workshops and Board meetings through which we have explained the GCF guidelines / procedures and in result of this we are quite successful in developing a potential projects pipeline, moreover, through GCF readiness support we are successful in reaching out to all the decision makers and to obtain their consent and ownership for these concepts.



4.6. Project Briefs for GCF Country Project Profile

PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-1: Creating Enabling Environment for the Adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture Practices, at Grass Root level in Pakistan (CEE-CSA)

Focal Area: Cross CuttingProject Duration: 5-7 YearsTotal Cost: USD 33 million

Target Areas: To be decided on basis of Agricultural output Potential and CC Vulnerability Index

Background and Rationale:Agriculture is Pakistan’s most important and yet also most vulnerable sectors to climate change impacts. Droughts and floods are increasingly severe, resulting in reduced agricultural production. At present, there are insufficient financial resources and technical capacity to build the climate-resilience of rural Pakistan by adapting CSA practices and natural resource management to climate change conditions. Although the need to manage Pakistan natural resources in a commercial yet sustainable manner is well recognized, a paradigm shift is required to manage these resources in a climate smart rigorous, strategic manner under changed climatic conditions. Due to the limited availability of water, degraded land resources, increasing pressures of population growth, along with old out dated ways of cultivation and farming. The proposed project will use CSA activities achieve project objectives with ecosystem-based Mitigation and Adaptation approaches. The objective of the project is consequently to build the climate-resilience of farmers, reduce agriculture emissions where possible and ensure food security of people of Pakistan, and facilitate the development of a sustainable natural resource-based (green) economy by implementing project CSA activities. The project will focus on achieving tangible outputs, long-term sustainability of project.

Objectives:The objective of the (CEE-CSA) Project is to introduce climate smart agricultural practices at grass root level with the aim to ensure food security, increase resilience of local farmers, reducing emission while reaping benefits of improved livelihood and environment and ensuring access to existing and new climate-smart technologies for poor farmers.

» Sustainable increases in productivity, farm incomes, food security and climate change are urgent and inter-related issues in the agriculture sector (food security).

» Providing an evidence base for identifying, developing and implementing practices, policies and investments for climate smart agriculture.

» Development of region specific CSA model to save ecosystem of different regions of Pakistan to climate change impacts.

» Reduced GHG emissions per unit of product, and increased carbon



sequestration through the adoption of climate smart agriculture mitigation and adaptation activities.

» Sustainability of CSA interventions through to scaling up of proven technologies and practices, both at community and household level for locally adaptable CSA technique for strengthened resilience of farmers to the impacts of climate change (Adaptation) and capturing financial benefits from potential mitigation co-benefits

» Awareness raising & capacity building of farmers, concerned government officials and CBOs to build a climate change resilient farming system and generally increase the number of farmers using Climate Smart Agricultural practices.

» Development of strategic Region-specific CSA model, according to the different regions vulnerability in Pakistan, to climate change impacts in consultation with all stakeholders according to the local community needs - its demonstration at district level for the specific needs of that region, to create an enabling environment for adoption of CSA interventions.

» Facilitated policy dialogue and preparation of a CSA strategic framework document.

(CEE-CSA) Project Output:To achieve the project goals, the programme will directly target small-land holder farmers, rural households local NGOs and CBOs in Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Baluchistan and Gilgit Baltistan provinces and develop their capacities in climate smart agriculture (CSA), introduce new and improved farming practices through FAO proven applied research and extension approaches (Farmer Field School/Farmer Climate School) and the findings of local agriculture research institutes. The modern environment friendly best farming techniques and management practices will be followed, according to the suitability of agro-ecological conditions of target areas e.g.

» Providing farmers, CBOs, women farmers and youth groups with matching grants (in kind) for scaling up climate-smart agriculture innovative practices and improved service delivery for mainstreaming climate-smart agriculture.

» Equipping the participants of the project with expert groups and farmer field schools with proven CSA techniques, and presenting them to their rural community models and success stories for sustainable and long term adoption of CSA models.

» Improve the utilization rate of selected and drought-tolerant and submergence tolerant seeds and direct seeded cultivation methods.

» Increase the number of farmers using sustainable irrigation techniques by providing farmers, CBOs, women and youth groups with matching grant in kind or subsidized price equipment e.g. drip irrigation system equipment for the adoption of Urea Deep Placement Technique (UDP).

» Increase the use of adaptation approach to reduce emission e.g. alternate wetting & drying (AWD) method of Rice cultivation, dry cultivation of rice and promotion of laser levelling technologies and practices, using alternate



organic fertilizers and pesticide/herbicides, agro-forestry, promotion of NTFPs for conservation of ecosystem services and CSA techniques to minimize climate change risks and enhance food security.

» Promotion of CSA techniques for the reclamation of degraded agro-pastoral land.

» Protect the watershed from erosion and secure irrigation potential. » Mass awareness for switching to other nontraditional cash crops and Improve

market access. » Involving academia and dissemination of latest research for the capacity

building of local governments, farmers’ organizations and incubation centers. » Providing rural and agricultural advisory services through establishment of

dedicated FM radios for information delivery to farmers, upgrading, expanding & delivering weather forecast, and crop price information to farmers in selected community through cell phones.

» Development of farmers’ contingency/emergency response plan to cope with the situations like floods and dry season/drought.

» Improving soil fertility and water management for rain fed crops supporting small- and medium-scale CSA irrigation technologies supporting the consolidation of high potential value chains.

(CEE-CSA) Project Cost Estimation (Approx):Tentative breakdown of costs per component (Amount in USD)

A. Project Main Components Cost: » Component 1: Providing in Kind Matching Grant to Scale Up Proven CSA

Technologies and Practices, Both at Community and Household Level: 09 Million USD

» Component 2: Capacity Development to Implement CSA Practices: 05 Million USD » Component 3: Technology Transfer: 02 Million USD » Component 4: Inclusive Enterprise Development for Sustainability of CSA and

Supply Chain Management: 02 Million USD » Component 5: Promote Sustainable Landscape Management: 05 Million USD

B. Baseline Costs » Data Collection from farmers: 01 Million USD » Need Assessment According to Vulnerability of the Region: 1.5 Million USD

C. Documentation » Report compilation of result of best variety: 0.01 Million

D. Contingencies » 1. Physical Contingencies: 01 Million USD » 2. Price Contingencies: 01 Million USD

E. Project Management Cost: 1,925,000 Million USDF. Agency Fee: 2,952,500 Million USD Total Costs to be financed: 32,477500 Million USDTotal (CEE-CSA) Project Cost: 32,477500 Million USD



Expected OutcomeThe Project seeks to significantly change and improve traditional agricultural practices in line with project objective with the aim to achieve following results;

» Pakistan-specific CSA model developed for linking climate finance (providing matching grant in kind) to famers and with small and medium land holding developed and implemented.

» Farmers’ field schools and Dedicated FM channel established for mass scale awareness about (CEE-CSA) Project initiatives and activities. Development of investment project proposal.

» Monitoring & Evaluation and impact assessment mechanisms » Preparation and dissemination of policy briefs on CSA » Capacity built to plan, implement and finance climate smart agriculture » Decreased production costs and enhanced yield, thus improving farm

profitability » Supplemental farmer income will provide additional short and long-term co-

benefits to the environment, including improving resilience to climate change. » Optimum utilization of agricultural land, switching to other alternative crops,

reducing national trade deficit and improving the patterns of cultivation. » Research and technology transfer of climate smart agricultural techniques and

technology in Pakistan, according to the local needs and vulnerability. » Capacity Built of local entrepreneurs for manufacturing and production of CSA

tools at local level for their cheap and sustainable availability in long term. » SLM practices introduced and implemented accords the country to supplement

the CSA interventions introduced in Pakistan.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-2: Promotion of Climate Smart Livestock Interventions and on Farm Bio Energy Generation, in Pakistan (CSLBE)

Executing Entity: Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Partners:

Sindh Wildlife Departments, Forest Fisheries and Wildlife Department, Punjab, Baluchistan Forest and wildlife department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Forestry, Environment and Wildlife Department, Livestock and Dairy Development Board Pakistan, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore

Focal Area: Climate Change MitigationProject Duration: 5 YearsTarget Areas: National ProjectProject Cost: USD 40 million (approx)

Project ObjectiveThe project aims to increase livestock resources productivity, health, longevity and quality with the focus to improve community livelihoods, in different extremely vulnerable ecosystems of Pakistan through the introduction of climate smart livestock interventions while reducing sectoral emissions from livestock through manure management and promotion of on farm biogas generation through locally adaptable and environment friendly best practices.

Component 1: Formulation of National and Sub-National Climate Smart Livestock Strategies and Action Plan.In Consultation with local stakeholder, provincial line departments planning for land use including zoning and integration of the various land uses to ensure save forest cover near grazing lands, optimal production of goods and services from the land resources;

» Devising a national action plan for Increased productivity and reduced risk, introducing new an efficient animal varieties and different cross breeding practices, while on the same hand focus on reducing emission from livestock at each production stage.

» Identify more climate resilient production systems, including strategies to cope with the events like floods, acute dry seasons and heat waves, developing an action plan for the capacity building of farmers for adopting project interventions and ensuring replication of such action through making livestock farmers communities.

» Development of an action plan for manure management practices for biogas generation at small and medium scale, with the introduction of environment friendly and locally adaptable technology, ensuring its local production for the sustainability of project initiative in long term.



Component 2: Restoration and Sustainable Management of De-Graded Grazing LandsThis component of the project is dedicated for the restoration of degraded gazing lands, in Baluchistan, Punjab, Sindh and KP province. The Following activities will be carried out during the project to achieve this component of the project.

» Land rehabilitation: watershed restoration, torrent and gully control, mechanical and biological measures to control run-off and promote infiltration in degraded land, control of sediment from bad lands and severely eroded areas, where these measures have an economic justification (protection of human settlements, infrastructure, water resources and valuable cropland);

» Forestry support to grazing lands: windbreaks, shelterbelts, woodlots, agro forestry systems, introduction of multi-purpose trees, fodder trees and fuel wood species, introduction of nitrogen-fixing species

» Land reclamation: stabilization of sand dunes (coastal and continental), reclamation of saline soils, reclamation of degraded lands

» Control of desert encroachment: stabilization of sand dunes affecting oases, cropland and infrastructure, establishment of large-scale shelter-belts

» Water conservation and harvesting: phreatophyte control, vegetation manipulation to increase water yield, water spreading, devices to promote ground water recharge and storage, dew harvesting techniques, mulching and other techniques to reduce evaporation losses in cropland and surface water.

» Protection of soil from water and wind erosion and, as a result, maintenance of its fertility;

» Protection of watersheds and water courses to attain a regular flow of high-quality water;

» Stabilization of sands and sand dunes; » Enhancement of vegetative resources for fuel, construction materials, fodder,

food and forage, and other products for use by man. » Protection of soil from water and wind erosion and, as a result, maintenance of

its fertility; » Protection of watersheds and water courses to attain a regular flow of high-

quality water; » Stabilization of sands and sand dunes; » Enhancement of vegetative resources for fuel, construction materials, fodder,

food and forage, and other products for use by man

Component 3: Creating Enabling Environment for the Adoption of Climate Smart Livestock PracticesThis component of the project is more focused towards creating a sustainable environment for the production and management of livestock, and will include following activities to achieve project component objective;

» Capacity Building of Local Livestock Farmers (Pastoral risk management and decision support systems)



» Improve production efficiency » Fitness, Health and Longevity of Livestock » Nutritional Approach Strategy to Mitigate Methane Emission from Animals that

Chew and Cud » Alternative feeding strategies to reduce methane in ruminants » Manipulating nutrient composition of the diet » Animal breeding and selection Breeding more productive animals » Improving diets so that animals produce more protein with less feed and lower

emissions » Better manure management (e.g. composting) » Better herd management to improve output, including better herd health

management » Revival and improved management of degraded grass lands national wide

with special emphasis to the areas with the severe vulnerability to drought (e.g. sowing improved varieties of pasture, rotational grazing) with less reliance on antibiotics

Component 4:This component of the project is focused to the environment friendly manure management, and introduction of biogas generation solution that may be adapted at national scale in long run. Farmers will be trained and educated about a cost effective and easily adaptable technology that may fulfill their energy needs. Private sector will be engaged for the technology transfer and the production of equipment required for the production of biogas solution, the project will also work to develop a market of such equipment and promote healthy completion with the help of provincial stakeholders.

» Identifying cheap and locally biogas production system and technologies, meetings the local needs.

» Promotion of project’s biogas generation solutions to livestock farmers, with the focus on the areas with higher deforestation, providing them an alternative, cheap and sustainable source of energy.

» Training and providing technical support to local manufacturers for the cheap and sustainable supply of tools and equipment for the generation of biogas

» Providing farmers with bio fertilizer with minimum GHG emissions

Expected Project OutcomesWith the completion of the project the following outcomes will be achieved;

1. CSL approach mainstreamed in climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and land-use planning in the livestock sector;

2. Institutional capacities for the implementation of CSL management strategies have been strengthened;

3. CSL approach has been adopted in degraded livestock areas;4. Access to financing instruments for investments in CSL practices in degraded

areas has been improved;



5. GHG emissions from livestock activities have been reduced and monitored in project targeted areas;

6. Better grassland management practices demonstrated with proved results 7. Grassland improved management system developed and demonstrated in the

most affected areas, with the adaptive potential for sustainable use of such management practices.

8. Diagnostic studies to evaluate the existing pattern of organic-wastes disposal/utilization and the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in a time span

9. Management and utilization of bio-digesters’ slurry as source of bio-fertilizer to substitute the chemical fertilizer, the main source of greenhouse gases at the stage of manufacturing.

10. Breeding more productive animals Improving diets so that animals produce more protein with less feed and lower emissions

11. Reducing deforestation and availability of biogas for cooking and energy generation purpose through project’s introduced cheap biogas solution

12. Better manure management (e.g. composting) practices that ensure the recovery and recycling of nutrients and energy contained in manure and improvements in energy use efficiency along supply chains can further contribute to mitigation.

13. Better herd management to improve output, including better herd health management

14. With less reliance on antibiotics, better management of grassland (e.g. sowing improved varieties of pasture, rotational grazing)

15. Re-carbonation of pasture and agricultural soils: Soil carbon sequestration practices, including assessing its potential and developing monitoring methods

16. Research in the areas of farm and system-level modeling integrating biophysical processes, economics and behavioral barriers to mitigation and adaptation

17. Transformation of feeding strategies among mixed and industrial systems to minimize risks of shortages

18. Awareness raising, information and technology transfer, which are still primary drivers of efficiency gains and adaptation

19. Improve and/or reduce intensive production based on ruminant species 20. Improve resilience of grasslands (legume introduction) 21. Improved water management (for livestock and irrigation)



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-3: Greening Public Buildings

Executing Entity: Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Partners: Capital Development Authority, Provincial P&D Departments

Project Duration: 5 YearsImplementing Agency: To be decided

Project Cost: USD 50 million

Objective of the Project:The objective of the project is to lead by example at the forefront of the green building revolution, raise awareness using green inspire the broader implementation of sustainable building practices and encourage the private sector to build green, to develop a roadmap to Green Government Buildings guiding government professionals implementing green building programs and initiatives.

Project Justification » Promote local market green revolution by using best practices in construction,

operation and maintenance of government owned buildings. » Reduce operations and maintenance costs over the life of a building. » Energy and water efficient design paired with green operations practices reduce

operations and maintenance costs over the entire life of the building. » Extend Infrastructure Capacity. » Green buildings diminish the demands on infrastructure through waste and

rain/storm water management efforts » Improved indoor air quality, natural light and flexible design can contribute

positively to staff satisfaction and productivity, reduce absenteeism, improve employee retention and reduce the costs associated with employee relocation.

Component 1: Development of Guidelines and Certification Program for Green BuildingsThe project will develop a guideline and a certification program for green building also providing building owners and operators a concise framework for identifying and implementing practical and measurable green building design, construction, operations and maintenance solutions. The Green Building Programme will work on the following aspects:

» Green building design & construction including new construction, for core & shell, for schools, for hospitals and all new urban construction.

» Green interior design & construction » Green building operations & maintenance » Green homes design & construction » Green neighborhood development



The Certification program for green building will provide third-party verification that measures how well a building or community performs across the metrics that matter most. Impacts of the initiative will be: Energy savings - Water efficiency - CO2 emissions reduction - Improved indoor environmental quality - Stewardship of resources.

Component 2: Green Buildings RevolutionThe Component include community health, economic development energy and water management, environmentally preferable purchasing infrastructure, development public open space planning smart growth, urban forests and tree protection, neighborhood planning, climate change and carbon neutrality transportation planning and waste management. The project also includes the following activities at public buildings;

» Mass awareness rising about project interventions and capacity building of architects town planners and construction firms for the adoption of green building initiatives.

» Switching to efficient renewable source for meeting energy requirements » Installation of Net Metering system to supply the electricity to grid during

holidays » Installation of water harvesting to reduce dependence on ground water » Heat insulation to minimize the use of air-conditioning during summer season » Installation of multiple utility meters per building to identify over consumption » Purchase and installation of ENERGY STAR appliances » Periodic, on-going commissioning and evaluations » Installation of automatic light switches for rooms (rather than on a breaker) » Training of building staff to reinforce sustainable behaviours, such as recycling

and water usage

Project Outcome » Policy and roadmap for the adoption of green building code » Reduced burden on tax payers money for paying the utility bills of public

buildings » Leading by example from the government initiative » Ensuring the development of sustainable cities in long run » Policy interventions and guidelines availability in the shape of green building

certification, which can be made mandatory through legislation.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-4: Improving Resilience of Local Farmer Communities to Climate Change Impacts By Promotion Of Climate Resilient (Rice) Farming Systems In Pakistan (IRLF-CRFS)

Project Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation & MitigationExecutive Entity: Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Government of PakistanImplementing Agency: To be decided

Partners:

Departments of Punjab Provincial Agriculture, KPK, Sindh and Baluchistan, Rice Research Institute, Production Institutes, University of Agriculture Faisalabad

Project Duration: 5 YearsTarget Areas: Rice Growing Areas of Punjab and SindhProject Cost: USD 09 million

Project Objective: » Improving the resilience of rice farmer’s communities, living below poverty line

and dependent on rice farming to impacts of climate Change. » Reducing greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions far below their business-as-usual

trajectory in order to avoid dangerous climate change. » Enabling poor and near-poor rice farmer populations in Pakistan to improve

their standards of living by introducing climate resilient method of rice cultivation.

Project Output: » Policy Recommendation for the farming of climate smart rice techniques and

measures to be adopted at national and sub national level. » CBOs and 1,000 small land holder rice farmers learn the agricultural

techniques that reduce emission from rice paddies. » Introduction of urea deep placement techniques in all rice grwoing areas for

reducing methane emission from rice fields. » Reducing GHG emissions from rice production through the use of climate smart

agriculture approach and resilient farming practices of participating farms. » Allied research with existing rice research institutes and development and

Introduction of climate resilient and high yielding rice varieties in rice growing areas .

» Pilot projects demonstration in all major rice growing areas of Punjab and Sindh by joining hands with farmers and farmer CBOs, for successful demonstration of project interventions.

» Introduction of climate smart water conservation and pest management measures in rice growing areas.

» Documentation of economic and environmental co-benefits of using low-carbon farming techniques in rice cultivation.



» Capacity of local farmers built by creating a cadre of trained activists for new rice cultivation practices who can work as change agent and on-the-ground implementation by sharing rationale, knowledge and techniques.

» Formation of farmer groups comprised of small land holder rice producers, awareness raising, social mobilization and organization.

» Improving livelihood of rice farmers through the development of capacities of small-holder rice farmers in Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) that increase water use efficiency, decrease production costs, improve yields, provide environmental co-benefits and create additional income streams from the marketing and branding of environment friendly rice.

» Development of Climate smart agriculture cultivation practices for rice cultivation according to the local needs and climate patterns

Project Outcome: » Implementation of project policy intervention for climate smart rice farming

practices at national and sub-national level. » Sustainability of project interventions through project’s trained CBO and small

land holder farmers. » Sustainable GHG emissions reduction from rice sector. » Mainstreaming project intervention into National Climate Change Policy and

local adaptation practices. » Replication and upscalling of pilot projects interventions in all the rice growing

areas. Collection and dissemination of crop » Crop cultivation report at grass root level for optimum utilization of agricultural

land by switching to other crops to reduce the trade deficit and to save poor farmers from potential loss from the sale of their produce.

» Project findings and results disseminated through the establishment of diverse group of stakeholders including farmers/farmer organizations, government at local, provincial and national levels, academics, NGOs, civil society organizations and private sector, equipped with the strong science-based knowledge and information necessary to educate and influence policy makers in Pakistan and beyond, with the aim to advocate and stream line the project findings and proven results.

» Identification and demonstration of the most promising and optimal adaptation strategies, both in terms of livelihood security and hydrological sustainability as a consequence of climate change



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-5: Collaborative and Integrated Watershed Management in Critical Western Arid Watersheds of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Executive Entity: Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation

Partners:

Provincial Planning and Development Departments of Forest Environment and Wildlife Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), GCF Accredited Entities, any Other UN Agency as implementing partner

Beneficiary: 30 Million people living in target areas Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces

Project Duration: 5 Years

The Southern part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa receives 300 to 700 mm rainfall; livestock rearing and rain fed agriculture are main sources of livelihoods. Being arid and having dependence for livelihoods on water sensitive sectors, this tract is expected to be impacted hard by deepening of adverse impacts of Climate change and climatic variability. This is already manifested by increased frequency and intensity of droughts, flash and river in floods and changes in intensity, distribution and frequency of precipitation in the tract over last two decades. The hydro-metrological data shows that over last 30 years average temperature of the area has increased by 1 degree Centigrade, while precipitation has decreased by 5%. The dependence of local community on forest wood has further intensified the need for afforestation and alternative arrangements like NTFPs for their needs along with other environment friendly cooking and heating techniques.

Project ObjectiveThe overall objective of the project is to rehabilitate the damaged and fragile western watersheds, collect; store and conserve water, contribute to ground water recharge and regulate stream flows in streams through community-based integrated watershed interventions thereby contributing to food security, afforestation generating of cheap electricity through small dams for local communities and enhanced resilience of the rural vulnerable farming communities to avert climate induced migration.

Project Activates: » Sustainable Watershed Management mainstreamed into Jirga (local village

level government) Watershed Development Plans including parts of Micro-watersheds lying outside the control of local villages of KPK Jirga system and under the management of FEW Department.

» 100 Bio-engineering Structures established for soil and water conservation, Reduced soil erosion, increased bio-mass and enhanced availability of water in the watershed throughout the year

» 1000 Ha degraded watershed planted with fast growing fodder tree species for Reduced soil erosion, increased bio-mass and enhanced availability of water in



the watershed throughout the year » 200 water harvesting structures constructed to increase availability of water in

the dry season by 5% in the treated MWS. » 20 Mini dams for water recharging constructed (delayed action dams) to avert

disaster from flash floods, and availability of water for agricultural purposes » 36 diversion channels and Dykes construction to conserve the local

communities and improve forest cover » Contour trenches on 200 ha carried out » 2000 home-based nurseries established having both forest and fruit plants » 250,000 fodder plants provided to the farmers for farm forestry and agro-

forestry » 5000 Ha land managed through controlled grazing

Tentative breakdown of costs per component: » Sustainable Watershed Management mainstreamed into Jirga (local village

level government) Watershed Development Plans including parts of Micro-watersheds lying outside the control of local villages of KPK Jirga system and under the management of FEW Department. USD: 2.5M

» 20 Bio-engineering Structures established for soil and water conservation, Reduced soil erosion, increased bio-mass and enhanced availability of water in the watershed throughout the year. USD: 7.5M

» 1000 Ha degraded watershed planted with fast growing fodder tree species for Reduced soil erosion, increased bio-mass and enhanced availability of water in the watershed throughout the year. USD: 5.5M

» 200 water harvesting structures constructed to increase in availability of water in the dry season by 5% in the treated MWS. USD: 5.5M

» 20 Mini dams for water recharging constructed (delayed action dams) to avert disaster from flash floods, and availability of water for agricultural purposes. USD: 20M

» 36 diversion channels and Dykes construction to conserve the local communities and improve forest cover. USD: 5.0M

» 2000 home-based nurseries established having both forest and fruit plants. USD: 2.0M

» 250,000 fodder plants provided to the farmers for farm forestry and agro-forestry. USD: 2.0M

» PMC: US $ 0.5M @10 % of total Project

Total: $50.5Million USD Total Co-financing: 50 Million USD (In Kind)

OutcomesThe Following Outcomes ensure a paradigm shift of this project

» Implementation of pilot actions in the selected 30 critical watersheds in the project area to mitigate the impact of the prioritized and most anticipated disasters



» Strengthening the capacity of the relevant government institutions on contingency planning against most likely scenarios in agriculture, livestock and forestry sectors

» Rehabilitation of 30 critical sub watersheds for enhanced productivity through increasing ground water recharge, improving water storage, collecting hill torrents and plugging gullies and regulating sustained water flow and availability for irrigated agriculture downstream on sustainable basis through bio-engineering infrastructures.

» Construction of small dams for water storage for the availability of water throughout the year for farming and generation of electricity for local communities.

» Reduced effects of flood, drought and other potential disasters on the local livelihood and food security of the vulnerable communities through enhanced coping mechanism and resilience building to increase water collection and storage

» Enhanced local capacity of the rural farming communities living in the catchment areas for proper management of these critical watersheds and rangelands

» Enhanced local capacity of the rural farming communities in proper management of critical watersheds and rangelands for improved watershed’s products and services

» Non-timber forest products (medicinal plants, mushroom, fodder) as well as eco-tourism to introduce/ promote to diversify livelihood opportunities of local communities, and in turn create more ownership and interest in the sustainable management of the existing natural resources

Justification of the Project:The project will have significant co-benefits in terms of income generation, sustained capacity-building on land use plans, and climate adaptation, improved quality of human life and reduction in environmental degradation. These are explained as follows:

» The project will generate both on-farm and off-farm employment opportunities for the local communities through the labor intensive interventions such as social forestry and community plantation schemes, growing of nurseries, construction of engineering structures such as retaining wall, gabions, check dams, maintenance and repair of irrigation channels, structures pasture rehabilitation by conserving existing forested slopes and maintaining the natural state of natural flooding buffers along riverbanks and floodplains, but will also be helpful in connecting isolated communities to initiatives which will ultimately provide potential for income generation (such as community-based management of irrigation channels). This will contribute to broader economic and social development benefits for local communities in the area.

» The landscape-level land rehabilitation and stabilization measures to be implemented by the project will improve overall land productivity, both for pasture and farmlands, as well as increase the functional integrity of the



landscape, resulting in greater resilience to climate change impacts both overall and in the constituent productive areas.

» Through soft adaptation interventions, the project will increase ecosystem services and products: support to effectively manage at least 56,500 ha of denuded rangelands and pastures, maintain and enhance forest products that local communities depend on – including non-timber forest products (such as traditional medicinal plants) and even fuel wood, with approximately 2,400 households participating in new livelihood initiatives based on sustainable use of natural resources. (e.g. Non-timber forest products). Sustainable harvesting will ensure that communities will continue to benefit from such services from the forests and rangelands. In particular, the programme will contribute towards increased vegetative cover in degraded areas with focus on catchments of local streams and water sources; increased assets for landless and disadvantaged communities and therefore building their adaptive capacity; and improved management degraded land and water sources.

» The project will also provide support to poor women and other disadvantaged groups to participate in income-generating activities to enhance production. The social impacts of marginalization will be ameliorated through better extension services, capacity building measures and project investment in the target VDCs. Village level information centers will connect villagers with technical data on core systems including water, forestry, crops and livestock, and weather-related information.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-6: Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation through Efficient Environmental Governance, Capacity building & Institutional Strengthening, Conservation & Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

Implementation/ Executing Partners:

Environment Department-AJKMinistry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation & MitigationProject Duration: 4 YearsAreas: AJ&KTotal Cost: USD 200 millionTotal GCF Grant: USD 200 million

Objective: » Strengthening of Environmental Governance to streamline climate change and

environmental concerns in development process. » Soil erosion control, flood protection » Control of air pollution and emission reduction. » Sustained yield of water for irrigation in Pakistan and power generation in the

main rivers through integrated watershed management. » Conservation and improvement of flora and fauna; » Improvement in Solid/Hospital Waste management; » Improvement of capacity of State agencies to comply with or respond to the

obligations of international conventions and protocols

Outcomes: » Develop Climate Change adaptation and mitigation plan and devise a strategy

for its implementation for Azad Jammu & Kashmir. » Food, water and energy securities of the State and the Country through

integrated watershed management in the Jhelum and Poonch rivers basins, in select catchments ensuring no duplication/overlapping, through biological and engineering measures involving local communities.

» Reforestation, Afforestation on denuded areas and Protection of natural forest for regeneration of conifers

» Capping point sources, like automobiles, through efficient monitoring and mitigation response mechanism to minimize the GHGs emissions and improve ambient air quality profile of the State through effectively engagement of concerned stakeholders.

» Develop Strategy and take efficient management measures for Solid and Hospital Waste in AJ&K.

» Develop Sustainable Development Strategy for AJ&K, strengthening of Environmental Assessment and Monitoring Framework of the State and capacity building and technical backstopping of developmental agencies.

» Mass awareness to ensure integrated approach and realize collaborative efforts



for the purpose of environment protection, biodiversity conservation and control of pollution

» Establish 200-Green Clubs in schools as a grassroots initiative. » Exposure visits to climate change and sustainable development initiatives.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-7: Upstream Investment Safeguarding Downstream Assets


Environment Department-AJK, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change AdaptationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: AJ&KTotal Cost: USD 20 millionTotal GCF Grant: USD 20 million

Objective: » Halting and reversing Land degradation/Protection of ecosystems and

biological diversity » Conservation and sustainable development of natural resources endowment by

adopting appropriate land use practices » Involve communities to take responsibilities of planning, implementation,

monitoring, operation and maintenance of project activities » Encourage Grass Root Institutional networking so as to enhance opportunities

for socio-economic empowerment and promote vertical/horizontal linkages for better access to services and resources on a sustainable basis.

» Mainstreaming environment and climate change in development planning » Integrated watershed management and Carbon dioxide sequestration » Ensure REDD+ and clean development mechanism » Increase the animal protein availability and to alleviate poverty through

increasing the income of rural population by intensive inputs of livestock and poultry activities.

» Increase farm production and incomes, while minimizing soil erosion, in densely populated upland areas by improving farming systems, farm technologies and management.

» Achieve improvement in the physical infrastructure for cropping through appropriate on-farm water management, optimizing the use of rainwater in hilly terrain by re-modelling, controlling water losses on sloppy land and bank erosion of streams and rivers.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-8: Development of Climate Change Resilient Natural Resource base to support livelihood of vulnerable communities in upland watersheds


Environment Department-AJK, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC),National Rural Support Programme

Focal Area: Cross cutting (Adaptation and Mitigation)Project Duration: 5 YearsAreas: AJ&KTotal Cost: $ 59 million

Objective:The immediate objectives are as follows:

» To create enabling environment and mainstream CC in sectoral development planning;

» Protect/conserve environmental based assets of the State and downstream areas of River Jhelum and Chenab through Integrated watershed management and sequestering carbon to safeguard vital physical infrastructure downstream in Pakistan;

» Undertake CC adaptations and mitigation measures in watershed management to promote social and economic development;

» Reduced risks and vulnerabilities of communities from natural disasters and extreme weather events;

» Fulfill the obligations of international community to mitigate climate change impacts;

» Diversified livelihoods and income generation

Component 1: Natural resource based CC resilient measures in watersheds adopted at landscape level

Component 2: Enabling environment created for Climate risks vulnerability reduction



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-9: Business Loan Program for GHG Emissions Reduction in Brick Kilns in the Punjab


Environment Protection Department-Punjab, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC),National Rural Support Programme

Focal Area: Climate Change MitigationProject Duration: 7 YearsAreas: PunjabTotal Cost: USD 50 million

Background: » 10,500 Conventional brick kilns in Punjab » Environmental degradation through combustion of various fuels » Lesser heating efficiency » Clay brick manufacturing employees 87,000 families comprising 250,000 adults

Objective: » Providing affordable loans for shifting from traditional Bull-Trench Brick to

Vertical Shaft Brick Kilns (VSBK) » Improving energy efficiency of brick kilns » Switching from conventional inefficient kiln firing coal to VSBK



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-10: Enhanced Environmental Quality Monitoring System for Punjab’s Air, Surface, and Ground Water Resources


Environment Protection Department-Punjab, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation and MitigationProject Duration: 3 YearsAreas: PunjabTotal Cost: USD 50 million

Background:The proposed 3-year programme addresses the full range of the province

» Surface waters, including rivers, streams, inland lakes, and their connecting channels, ground water aquifers,

» Measuring water sediment’s chemistry and stream flows » Ambient air monitoring in large cities for criteria pollutants

Objective: » Assessing the current status and condition of surface waters, ground waters,

and ambient air in all major cities of the province » Evaluation of compliance of PEQS » Measure temporal and spatial trends in the quality of surface waters, ground

waters, and ambient air » Provide data to support EPA Punjab environmental protection programs and

evaluate their effectiveness » Detect new and emerging challenges and problems to quality of surface waters,

ground waters and ambient air



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-11: Commercialization Opportunities for Fly Ash Utilization Produced in the Punjab


Environment Protection Department-Punjab, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation and MitigationProject Duration: 3 YearsAreas: PunjabTotal Cost: USD 25 million

Methodology: » Seeks to mainly develop enterprises that will utilize fly ash as raw material

input in production processes » Added benefits of improving the image of the utility as a result of a reduction

in smaller ash dumps, reuse of fly ash to comply with US EPA Standards and reduce land disposal

» As a pilot project, handholding will be provided for establishment of facility for manufacturing of bricks from fly ash

» Favorable environmental impact, » Replacing cement with fly ash will reduce GHG, » Treatment of sewage sludge, » Soil rehabilitation and agriculture as well as immobilization of toxic elements, » Treatment of acid mine drainage

Objective: » Creation of Fly-ash Knowledge Incubation Centre in EPA Punjab » Exploring commercialization opportunities of fly ash » Facilitate and handhold with prospective entrepreneurs for use of fly ash in

cement, brick, fertilizer and road maintenance sectors » Identify innovative research projects on fly ash, » Financing innovative projects from fly ash, » Commercialization of innovative fly ash projects



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-12: Chilghoza Forest ecosystem and livelihood improvement program, Suleiman Range in Baluchistan & FATA


Forest & Wildlife Department-Baluchistan, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Cross cuttingProject Duration: 10 YearsAreas: Baluchistan & FATATotal Cost: USD 10 million

Objective: » Improvement of the socio-economic conditions of local communities by

undertaking development initiatives through community participation. » Arrest the degradation of Chilghoza forests through the control of commercial

harvesting of trees, investigate various pest control measures, and improve and expand the existing watch-and-ward mechanism.

» Control hunting and trade of key wildlife species and protect the existing wildlife habitats through effective watch-and-ward.

» Control hunting of key wildlife species, especially Markhor, and protect the existing wildlife habitats through effective watch-and-ward.

Outcomes: » Measures taken for conservation and improvement of Chilghoza forests in

Baluchistan and FATA. » Areas of ecological significance for biodiversity conservation and watershed

values conserved and used in a sustainable manner, and significant contributions made to combat climate change and mitigation of global warming.

» Alternative and sustainable livelihood initiatives with elements of enterprise and entrepreneurial skills developed which gradually reduce the degree of dependence on natural resources.

» Local communities well informed about the impact of climate changes and better prepared for adaptation and mitigation as result of global warming and its outcomes like: forest degradation, droughts, floods, etc.

» The best practices in sustainable natural resource management and preservation of local community and/or indigenous knowledge documented and disseminated.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-13: Desertification Control Programme in the Districts of Nushki, Chagai, Kharan, Washuk, Gwadar, Killa Saifullah, Killa Abdullah, and Loralai



Focal Area: Cross cuttingProject Duration: 10 YearsAreas: Baluchistan Total Cost: USD 10.7 million

Objective: » Organization of local communities for integrated management of natural

resources. » Checking land degradation to protect habitations and agricultural lands. » Improving livelihood through increased productivity of productive sectors. » Build capacity of local communities and line departments in INRM practices

Outcomes » Local communities organized, aware, and involved for integrated management

of their natural resources. » Activities initiated for control of land degradation. » Best practices to enhance productivity of agriculture and livestock

demonstrated. » Local community members and staff of line departments trained in INRM

practices.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-14: Environmental Monitoring System


Environment Department-Baluchistan, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Project Duration: 2 YearsAreas: BaluchistanTotal Cost: USD 5 million

Monitoring Needs:What is needed for monitoring:

» Indicators; » Information; » Criteria; » Analysis data; » Setting of objectives; » Decision making

Objective: » Institutional realignment and reorganization » Capacity to monitor will be put in the system » Monitoring tools will be IT based and integrating them in the existing system » Improvement in laws, policies and regulations



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-15: Programme for Conservation of Juniper Forests in Baluchistan



Focal Area: Cross CuttingProject Duration: 10 YearsAreas: BaluchistanTotal Cost: USD 10 million

Objective: » Support conservation of Juniper Ecosystem for its watershed values,

conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of its components to combat climate change.

» Improvement and sustainability of livelihood of dependent communities through linking livelihood with conservation.

» Develop human resource and strengthen local organizations for social and economic development that is environmentally sustainable and gender equitable.

Outcomes » Measures taken for conservation and improvement of Juniper forests in

Baluchistan. » Areas of ecological significance for biodiversity conservation and watershed

values conserved and used in a sustainable manner, and significant contributions made to combating climate change and mitigation of global warming.

» Alternative and sustainable livelihood initiatives with elements of enterprise and entrepreneurial skills developed which gradually reduce the degree of dependence on natural resources.

» Local communities well informed about the impact of climate changes and better prepared for adaptation and mitigation as result of global warming and its outcomes like: forest degradation, droughts, floods, etc.

» The best practices in sustainable natural resource management and preservation of local community and/or indigenous knowledge documented and disseminated.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-16: Livelihood to Coastal Communities of Baluchistan


Environment Departments-Baluchistan, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC),National Rural Support Programme

Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation and MitigationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: BaluchistanTotal Cost: USD 100 million

Background: » The Baluchistan coast which stretches over 720 km. » Pakistan’s coastal zone along the coastline of Baluchistan has immense marine

wealth and opportunities. The communities living along coastline are facing abject poverty, poor infrastructure, non-availability of safe drinking water and poor sanitation. Climate change is aggravating the situation from bad to worst

» In case of integrated approach for development and provision of services and support to their existing profession they can thrive and develop

Objective: » Integrated community approaches to climate change adaptation; » Information and early warning systems on coastal hazards; » Climate change governance; and » Knowledge management » Support to fishermen – one family one boat » Raising 8 Jetties –one for each village/town » Solar energy for these places » Establishing women training centers for net-weaving – gender » Establishing Chain management in fish trade » Studying current marine resources » Pollution level in all organisms and their remedies » Suitable points for oil seed plantations - palm trees wherever possible



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-17: Quetta the Resilient City


Environment Departments-Baluchistan, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Adaptation and MitigationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: BaluchistanTotal Cost: USD 200 million

Background:Quetta used to be the cleanest city. Factors degrading environment

» Population growth » Migrants » Decline in service delivery » Environment remained no priority for governance structure » Climate change --- decrease in sub-soil water –Precipitation » Seismic zone » Institutional lack of response to climate change

Objective: » Social mobilization –environment motivators » Institutional arrangement » Solid waste management company » Parks and horticulture authority » Water recharge – 80 wells for rain harvesting » Increase water storage capacity during drought » Major roads – landscaping and plantation » Drip irrigation in the agriculture district Quetta » Monitoring of elements of environment – BEPA » Improvement under BEPA for mitigation – emissions » Conservation of water resources » Introduction of cleaner technologies in all pollutant sectors –particularly

transport » Enhancing the capacity of concerned departments to bear shocks under

climate change without impacting bio-diversity including human beings » Solarization of houses, double metering system is proposed, incentive based

model » Land use plan



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-18: Addressing the main drivers of Deforestation in the protected forests of Malakand civil division of Khyber Pakhtunkwa in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation through integrated and collaborative natural resource management


Provincial Forest Departments-KP, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Mitigation & AdaptationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: Kyber PakhtunkhwaTotal Cost: USD 70 million

Objective: » Rehabilitation of the degraded forest resource in the Malakand civil division

to cope with the current and upcoming climate change threats through mainstreaming mitigation / adaptation principles and building resilience of the local communities against the potential natural disasters and climate change.

» The project also envisages the reduction of the Greenhouse Gases up to 30% and will thus contribute to the Government of Pakistan’s global commitment of reducing GHG emission

Component and Major Activities: » Awareness raising of the local community about sustainable natural resource

management in the context of climate change; » Capacity building of the communities for enhanced resilience in climate change

mitigation and adaptation; » Minimize and regulate the commercial harvesting of forests; » Integrated and participatory watershed management; » Promotion of alternative energy » Promotion and sustainable utilization of the non-timber forest products; » Promotion of biodiversity; » Participatory land use planning; » Enhance agriculture production in the valley bottoms to avoid conversion of

forest land for agriculture through introduction of climate smart agriculture including appropriate cereal crops and off-season vegetables;

» Introduce controlled grazing to encourage natural regeneration of forests; and » Introduce Monitoring System using advance technologies of GIS and Remote

Sensing.



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-19: Collaborative and integrated Watershed Management in critical Western Arid Watersheds of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to arrest environmental degradation, create resilience against Climate Change borne adverse impacts and water stresses


Forest, Environment and Wildlife Departments-KP, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change MitigationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: Khayber PakhtunkhwaTotal Cost: USD 50 million

Objective: » To rehabilitate the fragile and degraded western watersheds of KP by collecting;

storing and conserving surface water » To contribute to ground water recharge and regulate stream flows through

community-based integrated watershed interventions. » To contribute to food security, and enhance resilience of the vulnerable

farming communities and avert possible climate induced migration.

Component and Major outcomes: » Increased resilience in most vulnerable communities against droughts and

flash floods. » Realization of well-being and creation of food security in disadvantaged areas » Rehabilitation and sustainable management of critical ecosystems » Promote adaptation and avert climate change induced migration possibility » 30 critical watersheds selected and plans prepared and implemented » 100 Bio-engineering Structures established for soil and water conservation » 1000 Ha degraded watershed planted with fast growing fuel, fodder and fruit

tree species and homebased vegetable gardens promoted » 200 water harvesting structures constructed » 20 Min dams for water conservation, use and recharging constructed (delayed

action dams) » 50 diversion channels and Dykes construction » Contour trenches on 200 ha carried out » 5000 homebased nurseries established having both forest and fruit plants » 250,000 fodder plants provided to the farmers for farm forestry and agro-

forestry » 5000 Ha land managed through controlled grazing » 100 water collection and recharge wells constructed



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-20: Development of the National Forest Monitoring System; Pilot Implementation of the REDD+ NFMS Action Plan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province

Focal Area: Climate Change Mitigation & AdaptationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: Khayber PakhtunkhwaTotal Cost: USD 30 million

Objective:To contribute for further refinement of the National Forest Monitoring System for REDD+ in Pakistan through pilot testing the NFMS Action Plan and piloting REDD+ initiative in the province. The project will thus contribute to the achievement of the above-mentioned objectives of the NFMS AP and piloting of REDD+ for voluntary and compliance market. This activity will contribute to strengthening mitigation measures, as such is positively linked to implementation of NCCP of Government of Pakistan.

Outcomes: » Necessary institutional arrangements and legal requirements for the REDD+

NFMS are fulfilled in the KP province; » Capacity gaps of each NFMS unit are filled and necessary preparations made for

the implementation of the NFMS in KP province; » The REDD+ mechanism is pilot tested in two valleys in KP and system of

monitoring, benefits sharing established at pilot level. » Methods, procedures, tools and techniques for the NFMS monitoring and MRV

functions (Satellite Land Monitoring System (SLMS), National Forest Inventory (NFI) and Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHG-I) are harmonized and standardized as per local requirements according to the IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines and requirements;

» A system of reporting along with internal Quality Control and external Quality Assurance of NFMS is established;

» Key stakeholders are engaged and their awareness and capacity regarding implementation of the NFMS enhanced;



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-21: Reducing vulnerability and strengthening resilience of communities in the context of climate change and other natural threats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa


Forest, Environment and Wildlife Departments-KP, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)

Focal Area: Climate Change Mitigation & AdaptationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: Khayber PakhtunkhwaTotal Cost: USD 50 million

Objective: » The overall objective of the project is to regulate water regime, improve

the community livelihoods, and increase local food security, nutritional improvement and resilience building to threats and crises by the climate change through collaborative watershed management in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Component and Major outcomes: » Reduced emissions from Forestry and land use » Increased resilience of most vulnerable people and communities » Health and well-being, and food and water security » Ecosystems and ecosystem services



PROJECT/PROGRAMME TITLE-22: Revival of Dhoros (Puran , Digiri, 7 Sohni) Siphon super Passages (12) & LBOD Escape

Implementation Entity: Sindh Irrigation DepttFocal Area: Mitigation/AdaptationProject Duration: 5 YearsAreas: SindhTotal Cost: USD 15 million

Project Objectives: » To ensure safe, timely, and unrestrained disposal of drainage and storm water. » To rehabilitate and improve the existing LBOD infrastructure. » To divert storm water to dhoros and desert areas under extreme rainfall events. » To improve the drainage of storm water from the left bank area of the Indus

river by reviving the natural water ways

Project Area: » The project will provide drainage and reduce flood damages to about 5.5

million acres in 15 districts of Sindh including Puran, Digri, Sohni, Bhai Khan, Pithoro, Naro, Hakro, Pangrio, & South Khairpur, Ghotki, Ghotki Dhoros, Tando M. Khan, Tando Adam & Digri Drains. It will provide protection from flood damage to a population of about 21 million from about 6.3 million persons that are currently served by LBOD.

» The drainage system and timely evacuation will ensure minimum disruption to access to social services (particularly health and education), availability of fodder for animals, incidence of water borne diseases, and, uninterrupted livelihood activities.

Project Activities:1. Construction of the 50 sub drains, 80 main and branch drains and 150 spinal

drains.2. Raising and strengthening banks of drainage network to avoid over flow and

breaches to the system.3. Re-activation of Dhoros in all 15 districts, the old natural river course to restore

natural drainage. 4. Off-loading of Spinal Drain with the minimum discharge of 3000 cfs by

constructing 03 side weirs. 5. Construction of siphon at outfall points of MMD and LBOD Branch Drains to

divert storm water flows into old Dhoro Puran natural drainage water way and this will release presser from Spinal Drain.

6. Construction of additional Inlets on Sub Drains to support On–Farm Drainage. 7. Construction of Bridges as per need of the area. 8. Increasing the design capacity of KPOD to 7000 cfs for diverting maximum

storm water of Spinal Drain for the benefit of locals. 9. Installation of mobile pumping stations for drainage of low lying areas of Badin



Expected outcomes: » Reduction in flood disaster, increased food security and resilience of the

population against natural calamity. » Increased sustainability of natural water ways with climate change

requirements. » Fulfilling needs of recipient in terms of disaster resilience and food security. » Improved irrigation and drainage facilities and incorporating essential fixes in

water resource strategy.


Monitoring and Evaluation

5



The GCF Country Programme is a living document and will be updated regularly based on the changing circumstances. Current Country Programme will be valid until no significant changes being made in the country strategies or updating made in the Pakistan National Climate Change Policy and its Implementation Framework. The projects pipeline may require regular update because of the fact that when the concepts will be converted to funding proposal they may require more consultations and incorporation of relevant stakeholders input.

The Climate Finance Unit under NDA Pakistan (Ministry of Climate Change) will be responsible for the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of the country Programme progress. The Strategic Framework progress will be monitored on regular basis and progress on pipeline investments will be reviewed during GCF Board-Pakistan Meetings which will be convened on biannual basis. At the project funding proposal stage, the project proponent and accredited entities identified during the development of framework will be requested to indicate the activities, outputs, outcomes and results that they intend to achieve in relation to the results areas of the mitigation and adaptation.

The AE shall provide indicators at activity and output level and report on the indicators at outcome and impact level. The Ministry of Climate Change will also undertake second level monitoring by requesting the AEs to regularly report on the indicators and other relevant project performance indicators. In addition, during the mid-term reviews it will be verified that the AE has performed the required oversight on activities under the monitoring plans of projects financed by the Fund.

5. Monitoring and Evaluation



Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC)3rd Floor, LG&RD Complex, G-5/2, Islamabad, Pakistan.

Tel: +92 (51) 9224579, Fax: +92 (51) 9204126

Email: [email protected], Website: www.mocc.gov.pk

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