Strategic Thinking: Ready for Alternative

Futures Rey LugtuCEO, Hungry Workhorse

Digital & Culture Transformation I n d u s t r y 4 . 0

STRATEGY / TECHNOLOGY / PEOPLE

SOLAR TILES

HYPERLOOP

“There are two futures.”

TIME 2020 2040

Unsustainable,Degradation

Sustainable,Progress

Probability

Probability

Disruption:disturbance or

problems which

interrupt an

event, activity, or

process.

FORBES MOST VALUABLE BRANDS

2018

OIL &UTILITITES

DATA

3 DRIVERS OF

DISRUPTION

DRIVER 1:

MULTIGENERATIONS IN THE WORKPLACE

Generational Differences in Consuming, Buying, Learning, & Working

Hardcore beliefs and values

Adaptable, flexible, technology savvy, goal oriented, and responsible

But also impatient, not attentive to detail, not fully committed to work, and fickle-minded.

Workplace Wisdom, 2010

Easily learns the use of new technology, but quickly lose interest

Most open to change

True digital native

Driven by incentives but will do so only with incentives

DRIVER 2:

Break-neck speed of

technological advancements

Feb 05, 2018

“The pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be this slow again.”

- Trudeau

Internet of Things

WEARABLE TECH

CHATBOTS

ROBOTIC PROCESS

AUTOMATION

Collaborations Tools

ANALYTICS

CLOUD COMPUTING AUGMENTED/VIRTUAL

REALITY

4TH Industrial RevolutionTechnologies Affecting

Industries

DRIVER 3:

Emerging Competitors –

Startups and Tech Companies

Capitalism switchesfrom linear to exponential growth

Organizations & Employees need to be Agile

VU

CA

STRATEGIC

Identifying the

drivers of change

and disruption

Strategic ForesightIdentify Drivers of Change

Strategic PlanningCreate Actionable Plans

THE

WHY

THE

HOW

THE

WHAT

Strategic ThinkingThinking of the Future for Today

3 LAYERS OF STRATEGY

DEVELOPMENT

STRATE

GIES

How do you make sense of

The process of developing strategies is

STRATEGIC

THINKING

Think

tomorrow is

going to be

more of today

“We can't solve

problems by using

the same kind of

thinking we used

when we created

them."

Identify Drivers of Change

Critique Drivers

for Relevance

Imagine what’s

possible

Envision a preferred

future

Plan and Do

Internal Qualitative Intangible Unseen

External Quantitative

Tangible Seen

StrategicPlanning

Strategic Thinking

StrategicForesight

How do we get ready for the alternative futures?

• Integrating the future into

your decision making

processes today by thinking

BIG, DEEP, and LONG.

Strategic Thinking

BIG

DEEP

LONG

Homo sapiens to become a multi-planet species

- Elon Musk

Landing its first transport ship on Mars in 2022

Place a million people on Mars in 40 to 100 years

Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-decisions coalesce to create global futures

Do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment?

ThinkingBig: Thinkingin Systems

Interconnected

Interrelated

Interdependent

Peter Senge, The Necessary Revolution, 2008

Leaders need to learn to

see the larger systems of

which they are a part.

BIG

DEEP

LONG

Full-flow staged combustion has for decades been considered all but impossible by the traditional aerospace players.

DEEP

Assumption 1

Assumption 2

We all have

blind spots

that cause us

to miss or

simply reject

important

information.

Challenge

our beliefs

How deeply are

we questioning

our ways of

operating?

Are our

assumptions

today valid into

the future?

Do we operate fromour interpretation of

the past, or our anticipation of the

future?

BIG

DEEP

LONG

“I’d always been really interested in space, but I didn’t think there was anything I could do as an individual.”

- Musk, 2002

“…it seemed clear that we would send people to Mars. Suddenly I began to wonder why it hadn’t happened already.”

- Musk, 2002

Mars Oasis

Today FutureTIME

UNCERTAINTY

Linear FutureLow

High

The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions

Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)

Trend

Today FutureTIME

UNCERTAINTY

Linear Future

Low

High

Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)

Possible Futures

Trend

And…don’t forget the wildcard…

Wildcards are low

probability, high

impact events

How far into the future are we looking?

Do we understand

the shape of

alternative futures for

our organization?

Thinking Long:

Environmental Scanning

SCENARIOS

Whatever takes you away

from conventional thinking…

Trends

Emerging Issues

The weird and

unimaginable

BIG

DEEP

LONG

“There are two futures.”

TIME 2020 2040

Unsustainable,Degradation

Sustainable,Progress

Probability

Probability

BIGDEEPLONG

There are no future facts

Types of Futures

Today

Possible

Scenario

Plausible

Probable

Preferable

“Wildcard”

Time

Futures Cone developed by Clem Bezold

…how will we learn?

How will

automation affect

our work?

“Look at the

future from the

standpoint of

probabilities”

Digital & Culture Transformation I n d u s t r y 4 . 0

Thank You