Nebojsa NakicenovicDirector of The World in 2050

Former Deputy Director General

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Former Professor of Energy Economics

Vienna University of Technology

Strategies for achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century and their multiple co-benefits SDGs:

Prosperity

Social Inclusion

Sustainability

ALPS International Symposium: Long-term climate strategy toward

carbon neutrality, Tokyo, Japan – 13 February 2020

2020 #2Nakicenovic

The World is at “Crossroads”Explosive development transgressing

planetary boundaries but many left behind

Global economy increased 100 fold,

energy 50 times and CO2 30 times

Temperature increase over 1oC, about 8

million die due to indoor and regional air

pollution

Achievement of Paris Agreement would

bring multiple co-benefits for people and

the planet

2020 #3NakicenovicThe 2019 projection is based on preliminary data and modelling.

Source: CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al 2019; Global Carbon Budget 2019

Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation

(IPCC “likely” range)

Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.6 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2018, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2019: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 0.6% higher than 2018 (range -0.2% to 1.5%)

Fossil CO2 emissions will likely be more than 4% higher in 2019 than the year of the Paris Agreement in 2015

Paris

Kyoto

2020 #4Nakicenovic

Holocene, Paris &Tipping Elements

Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016

Source: John Schellnhuber et al. 2016

Greenhouse gas emissions pathways

● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2

emissions fall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010 levels)

● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050

● Reducing non-CO2 emissions would have direct and immediate health benefits

SDGs:

Prosperity

Social Inclusion

Sustainability

Nakicenovic 2020 #6Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Nakicenovic 2020 #7

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Nakicenovic 2020 #8

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

co-b

en

efitad

verse effect

Direction depends on mitigation strategy

Robust co-benefits

Robust adverse effectsKrey et al. (submitted) – under embargo, do not cite

Climate Policy Impact on SDGof stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050

Krey et al. (submitted)

co-b

en

efitad

verse effect

Climate Policy Impact on SDGof stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050

Krey et al. (submitted)

co-b

en

efitad

verse effect

Climate Policy Impact on SDGof stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050

Krey et al. (submitted)

co-b

en

efitad

verse effect

Climate Policy Impact on SDGof stabilization at 1.5°C by 2050

Krey et al. (submitted)

2020 #13Nakicenovic

Students studying under street lights

2020 #14Nakicenovic

14

Denmark

Finland

France

GermanyJapan

New Zealand

Norway

Sweden

United Kingdom

United States

y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

Inequality(1985 Gini Coefficient)

Intergenerational earnings elasticity

The Great Gatsby Curve

United States(2010)

y = 2.2x - 0.27R² = 0.76

United States

(2010 Gini)

.

The Great Gatsby CurveHigher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility

Veća prihodna nejednakost povezana s nižom međugeneracijskom mobilnošću

Source: Corak OECD, 2011; Kruger, 2012

2020 #15Nakicenovic

Than a Miracle Occurs

2020 #16Nakicenovic

Grand Transformation

Oran Young, Program on Governance for Sustainable Development

Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org

Interplay and the SDGs

• Fundamentally, there are two agendas

embedded in the SDGs

– We can call them (i) the human security agenda

and (ii) the planetary boundaries agenda

• The challenge is to make these agendas

synergistic rather than competitive

– Consider the case of Africa and the issues of

demographic trends and food security under the

impacts of climate change

2020 #18Nakicenovic

UN DESA and UNFCCC conference on

synergies between the SDGs and the

Paris Agreement – 1-3 April 2019

Copenhagen.

2020 #19Nakicenovic

Human capacity

Demography &

Health

SDGs:

Prosperity

Social Inclusion

Sustainability

Decarbonization

& Energy

Consumption

& Production

Smart Cities

& Mobility

Food, Biosphere

& Water

Digital

Revolution

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)

2020 #20Nakicenovic

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+09 1.E+10 1.E+11 1.E+12 1.E+13 1.E+14 1.E+15 1.E+16 1.E+17 1.E+18

cum shipments (bits)

millicen

ts p

er

bit

1K

4K

16K

64K

256K

1M

4M

16M

64M

Total

~30% decline per doubling

1971

1999

1985

1999

1994

1995

1996

19971998

Source: Gruebler, 2000

Moore’s Law – DRAMS Prices per Bit

Pictures: Courtesy of Charlie Wilson

2020 #22Nakicenovic

y=-0.02ln(x)+0.0822R²=0.33179

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04

De-scaledLearningRate(Cumula

veNumberofUnits)

AverageUnitSize(MW)

'De-scaled'LearningRates(perdoublingofcumula venumbersofunits)

Healey, S. (2015). Separating Economies of Scale and Learning

Effects in Technology Cost Improvements. IR-15-009., IIASA

smaller units

-> more units

-> more opportunities to experiment

-> more learning

geothermal

nuclear

Granularity BenefitsHigher Learning with Smaller Unit Scale After Accounting for Economies of Scale

2020 #23Nakicenovic

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

OECD

Non-OECD

Disruptive Technology Diffusion(access to cellphones)

Cellphones

Δt = 13 yrs

Cellphones

Δt = 11 yrs

Source: Grubler, 2016

2020 #24Nakicenovic

“Everyone” in the World has a

Mobile Phone

Motorola 3200

first GSM phone in 1992

After less than there decades of diffusion

There are now over 9.32 billion phones

(GSMA) for 7.74 billion people, but ….

2020 #25Nakicenovic

Acceleration of Initial Diffusion

Source: Heltemes 2019

2020 #26Nakicenovic

2020 #27Nakicenovic

End-use and Supply Efficiencies and

Upstream Leverage Effect of Savings at Service Level

Energy (all services)

aggr. eff.: 14%

1 EJ saved =

7 EJ primary energy

Water (ex. irrigation)

aggr. eff.: 17%

1 m3 saved =

6 m3 water withdrawn

Materials (ex. steel)

aggr. eff.: 13%

1 ton saved =

8 tons ore mined

2020 #28Nakicenovic

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Savings

Other Ren.

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,

and behavior)

~55% improvement by 2030

~20% renewables by 2030

≈ 1.5oC→ “Early Peak”

Global Primary EnergyALPS Low Energy Demand (LED)

Source: After Grubler et al, 2018

2020 #29Nakicenovic

Digital Revolution – ConvergenceArtificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Big Data, Robotics,

Nanotechnology, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology

The Internet of Things, 3D Printing, Block Chain,

Autonomous Vehicles, Augmented Reality

2020 #30Nakicenovic

3D-printed vascularized-engineered heart

at Tel Aviv University using human tissue,

vessels and other biological materials

(Wieley-VCH, 2019)

PilCam

swallobable-

capcule

technogy

(cs.cmu.edu)

Who is responsible for

authnomous weapons?

(https://futureoflife.org/201

6/11/21/peter-asaro-

autonomous-weapons/)

Robotic exoskeleton that will enable paraplegics

to do the unthinkable or make heavy tools feel

weightless (https://eksobionics.com/eksoworks/)

2020 #31Nakicenovic

Augmented reality is an

interactive experience of a

real-world environment

where the objects that

reside in the real world are

enhanced by computer-

generated perceptual

information

“Futuristic surgery” that

helped young woman

become first to have lung

cancer removed by Da

Vinci robot by Intuitive

Surgical

2020 #32Nakicenovic

Xenobot: world's first living, self-healing robots created from frog

stem cells– they are less than a millimeter (0.1 millimeter) wide – small

enough to travel inside human bodies. They can walk and swim,

survive for weeks without food and work together in groups. The cells

were cut and reshaped into specific "body forms" designed by a

supercomputer – forms "never seen in nature," according to a news

release from the University of Vermont.

2020 #33Nakicenovic Source: Gartner, 2017

2020 #34Nakicenovic

Vision:

Sustainable

Future for All

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses

• cities

• civil society

• science

• IGOs (UN etc.)

→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

→ New values and norms; new morality and ethics

Source: After WBGU, 2011

Legitimacy of

BAU eroding

→ 2050: Sustainability transformation

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

2030 2050

Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sta

ina

bilit

y

2020 #35Nakicenovic

Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sti

an

an

ab

ilit

y

Source: After WBGU, 2011

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

2030 2050

Digitalization for

Sustainability

Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sta

ina

bilit

y

Source: After WBGU, 2019

2020 #36Nakicenovic

Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sti

an

an

ab

ilit

y

Source: After WBGU, 2011

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

2030 2050

Digitalization for

Sustainability

Sustainable

Digitalized Societies

Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sta

ina

bilit

y

Source: After WBGU, 2019

2020 #37Nakicenovic

Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sti

an

an

ab

ilit

y

Source: After WBGU, 2011

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

2030 2050

Digitalization for

Sustainability

Sustainable

Digitalized Societies

Future of Homo

Digitalis?Tra

ns

form

ati

on

to

Su

sta

ina

bilit

y

Source: After WBGU, 2019

2020 #38Nakicenovic

● A new era in human history is emerging! After Neolithic

& Industrial, the Digital Revolution is the next era.

● Digitalization can enable a disruptive revolution toward

a Digital Anthropocene – a quantum leap for civilization!

● The paradox of the Digital Anthropocene – digitalization

essential for achieving the Six Major Transformations &

is challenging the absorptive capacity of society.

● Build responsible knowledge societies capable of taking

action towards sustainability in the Digital Age –

governance urgently needed in Digital Anthropocene!.

● There are only 10 years to 2030!

Some Key Messages

2020 #39Nakicenovic

Taipei Construction at Laan Station

2020 #40Nakicenovic

Welcome to the Digital Anthropocene

naki@iiasa.ac.at

ありがとう