Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural SSA: Targeting the

PoorDoug Merrey

FANRPAN Regional Dialogue

2 September 2008, Lilongwe, Malawi

Outline

Overview (adapted from Jerry Nelson, IFPRI)Climate change and variability—impacts on the poorAdaptation strategiesProject goals

Outcome of Kickoff Workshop Roles of FANRPAN and ASARECA Conclusions

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Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & VariabilityChange & Variability

Rich countries emit majority of GHGs Rich countries emit majority of GHGs

Poor countries are more vulnerablePoor countries are more vulnerable

Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation)Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation)

Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resourcesGreater dependence on agriculture and natural resources

Limited infrastructure and low-input agricultureLimited infrastructure and low-input agriculture

Low income, poverty and malnutritionLow income, poverty and malnutrition

Inadequate complementary services, like health and Inadequate complementary services, like health and educationeducation

Weak institutionsWeak institutions

Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience)Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience)

Location matters!Location matters!

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Much Adaptation Policy is Extension Much Adaptation Policy is Extension of Good Development Policyof Good Development Policy

Promote growth and diversificationPromote growth and diversification

Invest in research and development, Invest in research and development, education and healtheducation and health

Improve international trade systemImprove international trade system

Enhance resilience to disasters and Enhance resilience to disasters and improving disaster managementimproving disaster management

Promote risk-sharing, including social Promote risk-sharing, including social safety nets, weather insurancesafety nets, weather insurance

Types of AdaptationTypes of Adaptation Autonomous or spontaneous adaptationsAutonomous or spontaneous adaptations

Response to observed/anticipated climate Response to observed/anticipated climate change without intervention by a public agency change without intervention by a public agency

Initiatives by private actors rather than Initiatives by private actors rather than governments, triggered by market or welfare governments, triggered by market or welfare changes induced by actual or anticipated climate changes induced by actual or anticipated climate changechange

Policy-driven or planned adaptation Policy-driven or planned adaptation Proactive responseProactive response

Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of public agenciespublic agencies

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Adaptation Responses and IssuesAdaptation Responses and Issues

TypeType of of responseresponse AutonomousAutonomous Policy-drivenPolicy-driven

Short runShort run• Crop choice, crop area, Crop choice, crop area,

planting datesplanting dates• Risk-pooling insuranceRisk-pooling insurance

• Improved forecastingImproved forecasting• Policy reformPolicy reform• Technology Technology

disseminationdissemination

Long runLong run

• Private investment (on-farm Private investment (on-farm irrigation)irrigation)

• Private crop researchPrivate crop research• RelocationRelocation

• Public investment Public investment (water storage, roads, (water storage, roads, info infrastructure)info infrastructure)

• Public crop researchPublic crop research

IssuesIssues• Adaptive capacity of poorAdaptive capacity of poor• Social safety netsSocial safety nets

• Uncertain returns to Uncertain returns to investmentinvestment

• TargetingTargeting

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Effective Adaptation Policy StrategiesEffective Adaptation Policy Strategies Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target

the impacts of climate change, particularly on the poorthe impacts of climate change, particularly on the poor

Requires Requires spatiallyspatially targeted adaptation   targeted adaptation  

Market signals Market signals

essential factor in determining the responses to a essential factor in determining the responses to a

changing environmentchanging environment

but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks

equity equity 

Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not

merely reactivemerely reactive

Why does location Why does location matter?matter?

Where do the global climate models agree Where do the global climate models agree (yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red)(yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red)

Low emissions scenario

High agreement southern & eastern Africa

Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 (mm/month) June, (mm/month) June, highhigh emissions scenario emissions scenario

Black – no change

Yellow – decrease in mean

Blue/green – increase in mean

A lot of yellow! Decreasing mean rainfall

Project GoalsProject Goals

Assess where should adaptation Assess where should adaptation policies/programs be targetedpolicies/programs be targeted

Identify what kinds of adaptations might be Identify what kinds of adaptations might be cost-effective and pro-poorcost-effective and pro-poor

Propose methods and tools for policy-Propose methods and tools for policy-makers to evaluate optionsmakers to evaluate options

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Planned Project ProductsPlanned Project Products

Global change scenariosGlobal change scenarios Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic

factors, and alternative policies factors, and alternative policies Typology of production systems Typology of production systems

Integrates biophysical and socio-economic factorsIntegrates biophysical and socio-economic factors Household-level impact and response matrixHousehold-level impact and response matrix Micro-level adaptation case studiesMicro-level adaptation case studies Policy decision framework toolsPolicy decision framework tools

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FANRPAN HostedKick-off Workshop 23-25 June 2008

Outcomes Identified large number of related projects—

agreed to cooperate and build synergies Data base of projects, institutions, individuals

working on adaptation to climate change Commitment of partners present to collaborate

IFPRI, FANRPAN, ASARECA, two German partners (PIK, ZALF), represented governments, African research institutions

Work plan agreed Ideas contributing to project implementation

Indicative List of Suggestions

Agriculture in a wider socio-economic contextEconomic diversification = adaptation strategy

Target and sensitize wide spectrum of stakeholders & decision makers

Participatory pro-active approach with policy makers

Regional focus (SADC, COMESA) makes more sense than purely national approach

Capacity building and practical adaptive strategies will be more valuable than academic publications

Roles—FANRPAN & ASARECA

Facilitate access to data, linkages of international with regional scientistsNetworking function critical given growing

number of projects and activities Assist in design of socio-economic scenarios Organize workshops and consultations with key

decision makersPolicy dialogues as results emerge

Facilitate linking regional students with capacity building opportunitiesSee PhD opportunity at www.fanrpan.org

Conclusion

o Project provides opportunity to build regional linkages and capacityOur strength is capacity to bring researchers together

with regional stakeholders, decision makersPartnership with ASARECA a valuable opportunity

with future potential benefits for regiono Measures to strengthening capacity for

adaptation to climate variability and change is usually good developmental policyBut as a recent Norwegian review of its Malawi

projects show, there are implications: need to diversify – diversify – diversify

Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982

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Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Mozambique flood

From David Grey

Thank you!

Cattle drinking water in the Shinguedzi River, competition for water resources with wildlife in the Limpopo National Park (Mozamique)

Credit: Gilberto Ricardo