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Bull/Bull Market
• Someone who thinks market prices will rise
• A period of rising prices
Bear/Bear Market
• Someone who thinks market prices will decline
• A period of declining market prices
What Lies Ahead?
• The BIG QUESTION in the financial markets is to know,
• People want a financial “Crystal Ball”• What will be the price of corn, SBM and
milk– 3 months– 6 months– 12 months
What Lies Ahead?
• Nevertheless, there are systems that attempt to predict
• Two main schools in the financial markets:– Fundamental Analysis– Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
• Looks at economic factors, known as fundamentals– Dollar– Acres coming out of CRP– Number of ethanol plants coming into production
• In short, it examines the forces of supply and demand
Technical Analysis
• Looks at the price movement of a commodity and uses this data to predict its future movements
• Extensive use graphs of data to “make invisible visible”--called chartists
Key to Technical Analysis
• Identifying a trend• In fact, technical analysis can be
summed up in the saying, “The trend is your friend.”
• Future price movement is MORE LIKELY to be in the same direction as the trend
Technical Analysis
• Something that has always fascinated me• In recent years, I have found it a useful
tool to increase profitability of dairy operations
• I send weekly commodity updates dealing with corn, soybean meal, and milk to clients and other interested individuals
Bullish alignment“Technical buy” signals
