Strategist’s Handbook:Chart Updates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 3, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
March 3, 2016 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 1S&P 500 Revenues & Margins 2Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 3S&P 500/400/600 Forward Earnings & Margins 4Blue Angels 5Valuation 6-7S&P 500 Sectors Price Indexes 8S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 9Corporate Finance 10Dollar & Commodities 11Stocks & Commodities 12Big Picture 13US Economic Indicators 14-15China 16-17Eurozone 18Oil Demand 19
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2014 2015 2016
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2020
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S&P 500 INDEX 2130.82
1862.49
2043.94S&P 500 (1993.40)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: Dotted line shows 12/31/2014 close.
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Figure 1.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016500
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S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2016*
3/3
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% (157)
-9.8% (28)
-9.9% (60)
-7.7% (62)
-5.8% (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
-12.4% (96)
-13.3% (100)
* Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of 10% or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of calendardays in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 2.
S&P 500
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-25
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S&P 500 REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES(yearly percent change)
S&P 500 Revenues* (-2.9)
Business Sales** (-2.7)
** Manufacturing and trade sales.* Using US dollars per share and based on companies in the S&P 500 index at the start of each quarter.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 3.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 192
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S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFIT MARGIN(without IVA & CCAdj)
Q4Corporate Profits After Tax*(as a percent of nominal GDP)
(blue line)Q3
S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginUsing TR Earnings**
(percent, quarterly, nsa)(red line)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate thehistorical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.
** Operating Proft Margin derived using revenues from S&P and earnings from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 4.
S&P 500 Revenues & Margins
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Figure 5.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017900
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S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual Revenues
Forward Revenues*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201750
75
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175
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2/25
1516 17
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings
Forward Earnings*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20176
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S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Margins* (10.6)
Annual Margins
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201710
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2/25S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS(dollars per share, ratio scale)
Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (124.26)S&P 400 MidCap (83.04)S&P 600 SmallCap (38.25)
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 6.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20173
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S&P PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)
S&P 500 (10.6)S&P 400 (5.9)S&P 600 (5.2)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 7.
S&P 500/400/600 Forward Earnings & Margins
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016600
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S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
S&P 50003/03/16
S&P 500 Blue AngelsImplied Price Index*02/25/16
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 8.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017100
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ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATIONAll Country World Ex-US MSCI Index (In local currencies)03/03/16Blue Angels Implied Price Index*02/26/16
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 9.
Blue Angels
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20178
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FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)
S&P 500 LargeCap (16.0)S&P 400 MidCap (16.7)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.3)
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 10.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165
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MSCI FORWARD P/E(weekly)
Forward P/E*
EMU (13.0)Emerging Markets (11.1)
US (16.0)
Japan (12.1)UK (14.8)
Capped at 20
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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 11.
Valuation
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 175
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S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
S&P 500 Forward P/E* (15.7)
ConsumerComfort Index** (143.6)
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* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.** Index plus 100
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and BloombergBusiness.
Figure 12.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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1.0
1.5
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2.5
Q3
Q4
STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION RATIOS
S&P 500 Market Cap(as a ratio of S&P 500 Revenues) (1.79)
US Equity Market Capitalization Ex Foreign Issues(as a ratio of nominal GDP) (1.53)
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 13.
Valuation
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Figure 14.
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
500
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CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY
S&P 500 sectorprice indexes
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
400
425
450
475
500
525
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INDUSTRIALS
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
450
500
550
3/3CONSUMERSTAPLES
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
600
650
700
750
800
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INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
3/3
ENERGY
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
200
250
300
350
3/3
MATERIALS
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
250
275
300
325
350
375
3/3
FINANCIALS
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
125
150
175
3/3TELECOMMUNICATIONSERVICES
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
700
750
800
850
900
950
3/3
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMarAprMayJun2015 2016
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225
250
275
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UTILITIES
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S&P 500 Sectors Price Indexes
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Figure 15.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20175
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172/2515 16
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(S&P 500 forward earnings*by sector)
Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201713
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3717
2/251516INDUSTRIALS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201713
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CONSUMER STAPLES
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201715
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16INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20175
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456585
105
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15 16ENERGY
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20176
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1516MATERIALS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20178
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FINANCIALS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20177
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16TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720
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6817
2/25
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HEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201711
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16
172/25
15
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UTILITIES
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S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings
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0200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000220024002600
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20163
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S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS(billion dollars, annualized)
Buybacks
Dividends
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD(percent)
Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (3.9)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield* (6.4)
* Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P 500 index.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 16.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016235
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S&P 500 EX-FINANCIALS TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING*(quarterly, billion shares)
* Total shares outstanding for current S&P 500 companies with data for all periods and adjusted for stock splits and stock dividends.Source: Yardeni Research and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 17.
Corporate Finance
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200
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INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.
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Figure 18.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720
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BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)
* Nearby futures price.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 19.
Dollar & Commodities
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars)& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in dollars)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 20.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017300
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CHINA MSCI & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
China MSCI Share Price Index(in dollars)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index(1967=100)
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 21.
Stocks & Commodities
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18001810
18201830
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19201930
19401950
20
40
60
80
100
20
40
60
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100CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1800-1947
War of 1812(1812-1814)
Civil War(1861-1865)
WorldWar I(1914-1919)
WorldWar II(1939-1945)
* Base index from 1800 to 1947 is 1967 = 100.** 1982-84=100.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the US.
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19481958
19681978
19881998
20082018
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Cold War(1946-1989)
Figure 22.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 180
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Jan
AGE WAVE & INFLATION
Inflation Trend**
Age Wave*
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI.* Percent of labor force 16-34 years old.
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Figure 23.
Big Picture
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20163500
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5300
5400
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5600JanYRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE
(billion dollars, saar)
YRI Earned Income Proxy*
Retail Sales ex Gasoline
* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52.Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 24.
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1930
40
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68 Months1/08-10/13
33 Months2/01-11/03
23 Months7/90-6/92
25 Months8/81-9/83
32 Months11/73-7/76
19 Months10/69-5/71
30 Months5/71-11/73
61 Months7/76-8/81
82 Months9/83-7/90
104 Months6/92-2/01
50 Months11/03-1/08
JanCOINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS*(2004=100, sa, ratio scale)
* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries.Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.
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Figure 25.
US Economic Indicators
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201795
100
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Jan
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS
Railcar Loadings:Intermodal Containers(thousand units, 26-wa) (233.7)
ATA Truck Tonnage Index(2000=100, sa) (134.3)
Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 26.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173.5
4.5
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Jan
2/26
CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA(million barrels per day, nsa)
US (9.5)
US + Canada (13.4)
US (9.1)(weekly)
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 27.
US Economic Indicators
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-10
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Dec
Jan
CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Industrial Production* (5.8)
PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (-5.3)
* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 28.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 178.5
8.0
7.5
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6.5
6.0
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2
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Jan
CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN
Non-Gold International Reserves(trillion dollars, nsa)
Yuan/US$(inverted scale)
Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 29.
China
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-1300
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CHINA: NONGOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change) MINUSMERCHANDISE TRADE SURPLUS (12-month sum)(billion dollars)
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 30.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
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10
15
20
25
Jan
Jan
Jan
BANK LOANS & MONEY SUPPLY(trillion US dollars)
China: Bank Loans (nsa) (14.7)
US: Bank Loans (sa) (8.7)
China: M2 (21.6)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China.
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Figure 31.
China
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201660
70
80
90
100
110
120
60
70
80
90
100
110
120EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONEXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION
Germany (Dec=108.5)
France (Dec=87.6)
Italy (Dec=80.7)
Spain (Dec=77.4)
Eurozone (Dec=96.5)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 32.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14EUROZONE: CPI, M2, & LOANS AT MFIs*(yearly percent change)
CPI (Feb=-0.2)
M2 (Jan=5.4)
MFI Loans toTotal Private Sector (Jan=0.3)
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* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs).Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Figure 33.
Eurozone
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
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5
-25
-20
-15
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-5
0
5
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25
Q4
Jan
S&P 500 REVENUES & WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change)
S&P 500 Revenues(using dollars per share) (-2.9)
World Oil Demand(using 12-month average) (1.9)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Institute Supply Management.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100
200
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
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500
600
Jan
Jan
GASOLINE SALES TO US CONSUMERS(billion dollars, saar)
Retail Sales of Service Stations
Personal Consumption Expenditureson Gasoline
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Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 35.
Oil Demand
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