STRATEGY & IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

STRATEGY & IMPLEMENTATION PLAN FOR ENHANCING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION & EMPLOYMENT IN NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND

DAF-18004 FINAL REPORTv1.03; December 2018

DECEMBER 2018

V1.03

DAF-18004 FINAL REPORT

STRATEGY & IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

for Enhancing Agricultural Production & Employment in North West Queensland

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All photos used in this discussion document were either sourced by Coriolis from a range of stock photography providers as documented or are low resolution, complete product/brand for illustrative purposes used under fair dealing/fair use for both “research and study” and “review and criticism”. Our usage of them complies with Australian law or their various license agreements.

Copyright © State of Queensland (Department of Agriculture and Fisheries), 2018, all rights reserved.

3

+ Client brief

+ Regions covered by the research

+ Executive summary

+ Background

+ Falling population

+ The case for North West Queensland

+ Three horizons of growth

+ Government actions required to deliver on implementation

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?

WHERE CAN WE GROW?

HOW DO WE IMPLEMENT?

01 02 03 04INTRO

+ Detailed Actions

+ Improvement Opportunities

+ Current Trials

+ Stakeholder Engagement

+ Glossary

APPENDICES

05Pages 04-11 Pages 12-23 Pages 37-69 Pages 70-77 Pages 78+

TABLE OF CONTENTS

4

IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY?

CONTEXT & CONCLUSIONS

Pages 24-36

Client BriefSCHEDULE 1 – REQUIREMENTS

The Supplier must provide the Services specified below to the Customer, in accordance with the Requirements described in this Schedule.

PURPOSE

The Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries (DAF) as lead agency (the customer), are seeking to secure the services of a suitably qualified consultant/service provider or consortium, to develop a long-term strategy and associated implementation plan for enhanced agricultural production and employment in North Western Queensland.

The strategy will focus on expansion, diversification and intensification opportunities linked to the regions agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors.

The strategy will be developed in collaboration with key stakeholders across the supply chain and link with allied components of the broader regional economic diversification strategy.

This body of work will form an integral component of an overarching long-term regional economic diversification strategy for the North West being led by Queensland Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning (DSDMIP).

BACKGROUND

Reference is made to the recently completed Strategic Blueprint for Queensland’s North West Minerals Province (NWMP), the key recommendations and findings of which were as follows:

- Need for regional resource based economies to diversify their economic base to facilitate longer-term economic and community resilience;

- Imprimatur and funding to explore more broadly and build on economic strengths other

than mining (Eg. agriculture, fishing, forestry and tourism), and pursue opportunities to facilitate more diversified drivers of economic growth;

- The NWMP has a strong agricultural base including extensive grazing/beef cattle production, and horticulture and cropping;

- The sector represents the second largest employer in the NWMP, behind mining;

- Acknowledge there are opportunities to increase agricultural diversification, and growth in the NWMP based on a number of current and emergent demands and drivers;

- Three (3) strategic priorities have been identified as central to securing the future of the NWMP:

- Facilitate continued resources sector development

- Diversify the regional economy and create employment opportunities

- Work with businesses and communities to deliver integrated and appropriate services

- Under the auspices of Strategic Priority Two, a ‘Regional Economic Diversification Strategy for North West Queensland’ is to be developed.

- As part of this overarching strategy, DAF has been tasked with developing a strategy to expand commercially viable agriculture related opportunities in the NWMP over the long term, inclusive of a plan to implement key recommended actions.

- Running concurrently DAF will also be supporting opportunities to leverage agricultural research projects and associated investment. The primary vehicles to progress this body of work will be the CRC for Developing Northern Australia and the Centre of Excellence for Rural Economies.

PROJECT AREA

Refer Page 6 of the Strategic Blueprint defines the NWMP (Attachment 1)

From an agriculture, fisheries and forestry perspective it is acknowledged that a broader project area will to be considered inclusive of the Gulf Rivers and parts of central Queensland, having due regard for associated supply and value chains.

SCOPE

The consultant/service provider or consortium will assist the customer by taking the lead in:

a) Developing a strategy to expand commercially viable agriculture related opportunities in the NWMP over the long term; and

b) Prepare a costed implementation plan for key recommendations emanating from the strategy; and

There will also be a role in assisting the customer to engage and communicate the findings and recommendations of the strategy and implementation plan back to key stakeholders (government, industry and community)…

DELIVERABLES/OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES

The consultant/service provider or consortium will deliver:

a) A long-term strategy for enhanced agricultural production and employment in North Western Queensland, and

b) A costed implementation plan

The Strategy and Implementation Plan will inform the overarching Economic Diversification Strategy being prepared for the NWMP.

The successful supplier may want to consider preparing stand-alone reports and reporting mechanisms for each of the major activities or actions associated with their proposed approach/methodology.

5

This strategy covers the North West Minerals Province and associated linkages and supply chains

6Source: “A Strategic Blueprint for Queensland’s North West Minerals Province”, Queensland Government; adapted by Coriolis

Karumba

MOUNT ISA

TOWNSVILLEAirport

Upgraded PortRoad & Rail Hub

CLONCURRY

MCKINLAYRICHMOND

FLINDERS

ETHERIDGECROYDON

CARPENTARIA

BURKE

DOOMADGEE

CAIRNSInternational Airport

Cairns AirhubPort

KARUMBAPort

Note that this strategy and implementation plan forms part of a suite of reports and should be read as a set

7

Executive Summary


North West Queensland’s population has been declining for several decades. This has had flow-on effects for the region’s industries, businesses and communities. There has been considerable government attention given to the issue, most recently in “The Strategic Blueprint for Queensland’s North West Minerals Province.” The Blueprint identified agriculture as a sector with real potential to grow and diversify the regional economy.

This strategy and implementation plan is designed to identify opportunities for increasing and diversifying agricultural production in the North West Queensland region.

The agriculture industry is already the major employer in the region outside of the mining centres of Mount Isa and Cloncurry. Agriculture is targeted as it has the potential to “create” significant new employment that is not dependent on regional population (unlike many service industries). However, agricultural employment in the region has been falling, primarily due to changes in the cattle sector.

IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY IN AGRICULTURE?

North West Queensland consists primarily of warm semi arid and tropical savanna climates, with some warm desert climate around Mount Isa. North West Queensland currently has an almost singular focus on cattle.

There are other countries with very similar conditions that can be treated as strong “climatic peers” for the region. These “peer” countries, predominantly from sub-Saharan Africa, provide a performance benchmark that North West Queensland should aspire to meet. As one example, matching the productivity of Eritrea would result in North West Queensland increasing the value of its agriculture production by ten times. North West Queensland currently produces an average of 1 kilogram of crops per hectare, well below Mali’s 124 or Ethiopia’s 426 kilograms.

Peers produce a much wider range of products for export, including cattle, cotton, sorghum, shea, castor, sesame, mungbean, mango and cassava. These are all products in high demand in world markets.

HOW CAN NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND WIN?

To compete with these peers, North West Queensland

can deliver a region that combines a modern, well developed economy, with African climatic conditions, that is close to key markets and enjoys a excellent reputation as a safe and trusted supplier.

North West Queensland can meet the needs of the customers for these products, particularly those whose supply chain reaches into Africa.

North West Queensland can compete. It is “The Right Place to Grow” many dry climate products, with the land, sunshine, water and resources required for success. North West Queensland is the size of Japan or Germany, with the population of Monaco. In addition, it has plenty of land for considerably lower cost than other regions of Australia. Water is available and the region gets high sunshine hours with mild winter temperatures.

WHERE CAN WE GROW?

North West Queensland has three horizons for agricultural growth. Horizon 1 focuses on growing and building upon the mature cattle industry in the region. Horizon 2 supports emerging products through investment in irrigation infrastructure. Horizon 3 involves developing new dryland products that are new to the region.

8

Executive Summary

With investment across these three horizons, North West Queensland can create $1.35 billion in new agricultural growth. This would create up to 4,800 new jobs in the region, significantly boosting population with all the beneficial flow on effects. Realising growth across these three horizons will require focus and effort by all stakeholders.

HORIZON 1

North West Queensland has an opportunity to produce more high quality, high value cattle. The region has a demonstrated capacity to stock cattle at higher densities than other similar regions in Australia. There are significant opportunities for additional dryland fodder production to support backgrounding operations and for further emphasis to be placed on the region’s 100% pasture-fed position. Other opportunities for growth include increasing land productivity, improving herd genetics, management practices and supply chain efficiency and targeting high value, stable markets. Horizon 1 is working and delivering results. Work on the beef industry in Queensland is ongoing and there are low needs for new government action beyond “business as usual.”

HORIZON 2

North West Queensland can achieve substantial

growth through investment in regional water projects and infrastructure. Currently, very little surface water in the Gulf region is captured and used for agriculture. While the area is not a tropical paradise, it does receive more rain than many countries, including many climatic peers. However, this rainfall varies significantly by location, season and from year-to-year.

There are significant amounts of surface water in the region available for agricultural development, with three general unallocated water releases since 2012.

Development of diversified agriculture in the region will come from continued investment in both the large proposed and in-progress projects in the region. Projects such as the Gilbert River Irrigation Scheme, Richmond Agricultural Project and 3 Rivers Irrigation Project (among others) would unlock over 100,000 hectares of irrigated land for development. There are also a number of smaller opportunities for developing irrigated agriculture in the region, where water allocations have been acquired by existing land owners. Increased irrigation will enable strong synergies and create a positive growth loop in the region.

Research identified six crops, along with goatmeat, as opportunities in Horizon 2. In addition, cotton,

sorghum and mungbean are crops that are able to be grown under dryland or irrigated production systems in parts of the region. Mangoes, grapes and peanuts are more water intensive crops that would work but require irrigation.

Horizon 2 has a number of regional water projects being progressed. Work on these projects is ongoing and they are progressing.

HORIZON 3

Horizon 3 looks at new products not traditionally grown in the North West Queensland region, or indeed in Australia at all, and are therefore outside of the “comfort zone”. These products, grown by climatic peer countries, are drought tolerant, mechanised and non-perishable. Cassava, sesame, castor, shea and jojoba can also be further processed into valuable starch and oil products.

Horizon 3 is potentially transformative for the region and yet receives very little funding currently. A key recommendation of this strategy is that significant new government action is required to realise this clear opportunity for regional transformation.

Further analysis of the “Horizon 3” opportunities is available in a set of related reports.

9

Executive Summary


Significant investment of time and resources is required to realise North West Queensland’s three horizons of growth. We propose a vision for a vibrant and robust diversified agriculture sector, which in turn leads to increased regional production, employment and population.

To support and deliver this vision, the region has four clear, sustainable drivers of growth: (1) a modern economy, (2) an African climate, (3) a location close to key markets, and (4) a reputation as a safe and trusted supplier.

Any government activity will need to be in partnership with regional stakeholders, industry and entrepreneurs.

Key actions are required across all three horizons:

HORIZON 1

Key actions for supporting cattle industry growth under Horizon 1 include:

- Drive on-farm competitiveness

- Enhance supply chain efficiency

- Develop feed grains & fodder crops

- Support regional processing

- Improve regional reputation

- Add value through cattle R&D

HORIZON 2

Key actions for supporting investment in water projects under Horizon 2 include:

- Leverage existing allocations

- Support project proponents

- Enable landholder development

- Support major infrastructure projects

- Improve processes and systems

- Invest in growth

HORIZON 3

Key actions for supporting diversification into new crops under Horizon 3 include:

- Coordinate development

- Develop identified opportunities

- Promote opportunities to attract investment

Progress is not linear; the three horizons support each other and build on growth.

WHAT RESULTS CAN WE ACHIEVE?

With synergised investment of time, passion and capital across the three horizons, the opportunity exists to create $1.35 billion in new agricultural growth in North West Queensland, bringing 4,800 new jobs to the region.

10

North West Queensland has a clear agricultural diversification action plan to realise the opportunity

11Source: Coriolis analysis

NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND DEVELOPS A VIBRANT AND ROBUST DIVERSIFIED AGRICULTURE SECTOR, LEADING TO INCREASED PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION IN THE REGION

MODERN AFRICAN CLIMATE CLOSE TO MARKETS SAFE &TRUSTED

HORIZON 1Grow & build cattle

HORIZON 2Support emerging projects & products

HORIZON 3Discover & develop new options

SUPPORT INVESTMENT IN WATER PROJECTS

1. Leverage existing allocations2. Support project proponents3. Enable landholder development4. Support major infrastructure projects5. Improve processes and systems6. Invest in growth

SUPPORT DIVERSIFICATION INTO NEW CROPS

1. Coordinate development2. Develop identified opportunities3. Promote opportunities to attract

investment

VISION

ACTIONS

DRIVERS

HORIZONS

SUPPORT CATTLE INDUSTRY GROWTH

1. Drive on-farm competitiveness2. Enhance supply chain efficiency3. Develop feed grains & fodder crops4. Support regional processing5. Improve regional reputation 6. Add value through cattle R&D

PRELIMINARY/PROPOSED


+Project Background

+Falling population

01

North West Queensland’s population is in decline and diversifying agricultural production is a potential solution- Total regional population has been declining since the mid 1970’s; longer for some areas

- Regional population is trending down across most regions

- The Strategic Blueprint for North West Queensland identifies agriculture as having the potential to grow and diversify the economy; this research seeks opportunities for increasing agricultural production in the region to create significant new employment

- WHY AGRICULTURE?

- Agriculture has the potential to “create” significant new employment

- Agriculture is the major employer outside Mount Isa/Cloncurry

- HOWEVER

- Agricultural employment in the region has been falling at 4% per year, primarily due to changes in the cattle sector

- The total area of agricultural holdings in North West Queensland is declining

- Increasing agricultural production in North West Queensland faces a range of key challenges

13

Total regional population has been declining since the mid 1970’s; longer for some areas

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1921192319251927192919311933193519371939194119431945194719491951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017

REGIONAL POPULATION IN NORTH WEST QUEENSLANDPeople; 1921-2017

Source: wide range of ABS (and predecessor organisation) publications; Coriolis modelling & analysis

Mount Isa & Richmond appear separately in data

Redefinition of Hughenden & Barkly Tablelands Mount Isa

Cloncurry

Burke/DoomadgeeCarpentariaMcKinlayRichmond

CroydonEtheridge

FlindersOther

Cloncurry

MISSING DATA EXTRAPOLATED

40 years-15,000 people

14

Regional population is trending down across most regions

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Croydon Burke McKinlay Richmond Etheridge Doomadgee Flinders Carpentaria Cloncurry

2002 2017

15

REGIONAL POPULATION IN NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND EXCLUDING MOUNT ISAPeople; 15y change; 2002 vs. 2017

Source: various ABS publications; Coriolis analysis

+303

+11

-161

-174-267

-302

-321

-541

-640

STRATEGIC PRIORITY 1Facilitating continued resources sector

development

STRATEGIC PRIORITY 2Diversifying the regional economy

and creating employment opportunities

STRATEGIC PRIORITY 3Working with businesses and

communities to deliver integrated and appropriate services

The Strategic Blueprint for North West Queensland identifies agriculture as having potential to grow and diversify the economy

16

VISIONStrong and prosperous industries,

businesses and communities in the North West Minerals Province

Develop a regional economic diversification

strategy for North West Queensland

Support key enabling infrastructure

Continue to support the development of the

Jemena Northern Gas Pipeline

Support opportunities to leverage agriculture

research projects

Build entrepreneurial capacity for existing and emerging sectors

Optimise employment opportunities -facilitate

training and development

Prioritise youth employment

Complete an infrastructure audit

Scope opportunities for increasing agricultural

production

Investigate tourism opportunities

Improve the digital presence of regional

start-ups and established businesses

This research seeks opportunities for increasing agricultural production in the region to create significant new employment

Key actions to be delivered in developing the strategy include:

DEVELOP A REGIONAL ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY FOR NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND

The Queensland Government will develop a long-term regional economic diversification strategy to leverage and identify development opportunities in key sectors including resources, agriculture, enabling infrastructure, tourism, and business and industry…

SCOPE OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

The state’s North West presents unique prospects for further agricultural development. In recognising these opportunities across the Province, the Queensland Government will be developing an integrated North West Queensland agriculture plan. The plan will focus on continuing to grow a sustainable and diversified agricultural sector, and will be developed in collaboration with key stakeholders across the supply chain and linked with the broader regional economic

diversification strategy.

…

SUPPORT OPPORTUNITIES TO LEVERAGE AGRICULTURE RESEARCH PROJECTS

The Queensland Government has already committed $1.5 million over three years to stimulate research activity to progress the development of new agriculture opportunities across North Queensland.

This funding will support opportunities to leverage industry-led research and development being undertaken through the Cooperative Research Centre for Developing Northern Australia for increased agriculture production across the Province and other parts of North Queensland.

The Cooperative Research Centre for Developing Northern Australia, currently being established in Townsville, is intended to provide a collaborative research platform to address challenges that have constrained agricultural and broader development in the north and includes a $75 million commitment over 10 years from the federal government.

17Source: North West Minerals Province “A Strategic Blueprint for Queensland’s North West Minerals Province”

p17-19

This work builds on past government strategies, reports and blueprints covering part or all of the region

18

EXAMPLE STRATEGIES AND PLANSSelect recent strategies;

Source: various websites; Coriolis analysis

Why agriculture? Agriculture has the potential to “create” significant new employment

Mining3,246 23%

Agriculture1,308 9%

Manufacturing324 2%

Retail, Accomodation & foodservice

1,778 12%

Utilities206 2%

Construction696 5%

Logistics892 6%

Other542 4%

Services1,063 7%

Government4,315 30%

19

REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND BY SECTORPeople; 2016

Source: ABS Regional Statistics by LGA – Economy and Industry; Coriolis analysis

54%Primarily dependent on regional

population rather than “creating” new employment

34%Mining, agriculture and manufacturing are the key sectors that can “create” significant new regional employment

12%Primarily locals, but also directly benefits from tourism

TOTAL = 14,370 people employed

Agriculture is the major employer outside Mount Isa/Cloncurry

31% 26%10%

1% 1% 1% 4% 1%2%

1% 12% 39%

18% 18%33% 35%

40% 46%

98%

68% 63%51%

82% 81%66% 64%

56% 54%

Doomadgee Mount Isa Cloncurry McKinlay Burke Carpentaria Richmond Flinders Croydon Etheridge

20

SHARE OF TOTAL REGONAL EMPLOYMENT IN MINING & AGRICULTURE% of employed persons; 2016

Source: ABS Regional Statistics by LGA – Economy and Industry; Coriolis analysis

Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Mining

All other

Indigenous Council

Core Mining Regions Agricultural Regions

Agricultural employment in the region has been falling at 4% per year, primarily due to changes in the cattle sector

21

EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING IN NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND People; 2011 vs. 2016

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Source: ABS Regional Statistics by LGA – Economy and Industry; Coriolis analysis

McKinlay

Doomadgee

Cloncurry

5y change

2011 2016

Flinders

5y CAGR

Etheridge

Mount Isa

Carpentaria

Richmond

BurkeCroydon

-43-11

-3%

4

2

124

-2%

-3%

-7%

1,308

44

1,637

26

5569

-28

-58

-39

-37

-80

-31

143

175

206

182

270

11

207

192 149

4

164

-4%-18%

8%

-6%

-5%

1%

317

6

190

280

128

CAGR(11-16)

-4%

KEY DRIVERS

DroughtConsolidationProductivity

Changing ActivitiesChanging Land Use

The total area of agricultural holdings in North West Queensland is declining

19.6 16.6

14.1

12.5

1967 2007-08 2009 2017

22

TOTAL AREA OF AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGS IN NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND REGIONHectares; m; 1967-2017

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Source: wide range of ABS (and predecessor organisation) publications; Coriolis modelling & analysis

35.4

26.1

North West Queensland NRM Regions

Northern Gulf NRM

Southern GulfNRM

33.7

29.1

40y CAGR-1%

8y CAGR-2%

Increasing agricultural production in North West Queensland faces a range of key limitations or challenges

1. Location

2. Environment

3. Water

4.Land

6. Skills & Mindset


See Appendix for full discussion

POTENTIAL REGIONAL

LIMITATIONS OR CHALLENGES

IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY?

+The case for North West Queensland

02

Climatic peers strongly suggest North West Queensland can dramatically increase agricultural production- North West Queensland should aspire to match the performance of African climatic peers

- A range of countries have a similar climate to the region and can be treated as strong peers

- North West Queensland is not currently intensively farmed relative to these strong climatic peers

- Strong climatic peers produce a lot more overall agricultural value per square kilometre

- Climatic peers are achieving export success by producing a wider range of products for export; products that markets want to buy

- Success is possible; North West Queensland is “The Right Place to Grow”; it has the land, water and resources required for success provided they can be utilised

- North West Queensland covers a vast area the size of Japan or Germany

- Land is cheap compared with other parts of Australia

- The region gets high sunshine hours and has warm average temperatures

- Only North West Queensland can deliver a region that combines a modern, developed economy with African climatic conditions

25

North West Queensland should aspire to match the performance of African climatic peers

26

NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND POTENTIAL VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION A$; m; nominal 2017

Source: UN FAOSTAT; ABS; Coriolis estimates and analysis

$760

$2,500

$4,300

$7,600

Current value of North WestQueensland ag

Senegal Burkina Faso Eritrea

10x

5.5x

3.3x

How much would we produce if we could match the performance of this country? (A$; m)

A range of countries have a similar climate to North West Queensland and can be treated as strong peers

27

REGIONS WITH STRONGLY SIMILAR CLIMATIC ZONES TO NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND Koppen-Geiger Classification

Source: WikiCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 (By Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.(University of Melbourne); Vectorized by Ali Zifan. - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences: "Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification”; CC BY-SA 4.0); adapted by Coriolis; Coriolis analysis

STRONG CLIMATIC PEERSIraq

SenegalMali

Burkina FasoNigerChadSudan

South SudanEritreaEthiopiaSomaliaKenya

BotswanaNamibia BSh – Warm semi arid

BWh – Arid desertAw – Tropical savanna (wet/dry)

North West Queensland is not currently intensively farmed relative to these strong climatic peers

28

TOTAL CROP PRODUCTIVITY/INTENSITY: NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND VS. PEERSKilograms/ha; total land area; 2016 or 2016/17*

Note: includes arable crops, root crops, vegetables, tree crops and fruit; * NWQ uses 2016/17. Source: World Bank; UN FAOSTAT; ABS; Coriolis estimates and analysis

426

369

294281

147132124

100

48453914841

EthiopiaKenyaBurkinaFaso

SenegalIraqSudanMaliNigerChadSouthSudan

EritreaSomaliaNamibiaBotswanaNorth WestQueensland

North West Queensland currently produces an average of 1

kilogram of crops per hectare

Strong climatic peers produce a lot more overall total (plant and animal) agricultural value per square kilometre

$25,592

$20,061 $19,584

$13,609

$11,303

$6,642 $6,593 $5,104 $4,878

$3,209 $3,019 $2,743 $2,019 $460 $110

KenyaEritreaEthiopiaIraqBurkinaFaso

SenegalMaliNigerChadSudan*SouthSudan*

Somalia*NWQNamibiaBotswana

29

VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PER TOTAL SQUARE KILOMETREUS$/km2; all agriculture/total land area of country; 2015 or 2016/17^

^NWQ GVP 2016/17; *Uses International Currency; Source: World Bank; UNFAO; ABS; Coriolis estimates and analysis

3.3x

5.6x

10x

Climatic peers are achieving export success by producing a wider range of products for export; products that markets want to buy


NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND

AFRICAN PEER GROUP REGIONS

CATTLE

CATTLE COTTON SORGHUM

SHEA CASTOR SESAME

MUNG MANGO CASSAVA

42.6

24.621.0

15.1 12.78.0 6.4 6.1 2.8 5.4

0.8

5.3

6.37.7

2.11.6

2.11.3 1.5

3.7 0.82.4

Ethiopia Sudan Kenya Mali Niger BurkinaFaso

Iraq Chad SouthSudan

Senegal Somalia Namibia Botswana Eritrea

Climatic peers are producing significantly more crops

31

AGRICULTURAL PRIMARY PRODUCTION BY CLIMATIC PEERSTonnes; m; 2016

Source: FAOStat; Coriolis estimates and analysis

47.9

30.928.7

17.214.2

10.27.7 7.5 6.4 6.2

3.3 0.9 0.7 0.6

Animals

Crops

Success is possible; North West Queensland is “The Right Place to Grow”; it has the land, water and resources required for success provided they can be utilised

32Photo credit: CC BY-SA 3.0 (Ravenspear82); purchased

- Large total area 375,486 km2

- Over 28m hectares of agricultural holdings in the region

- Diverse climatic conditions

- Low cost land currently underutilised

- Fertile soils suitable for agriculture

- Plentiful seasonal rainfall

- Multiple existing dams in the region

- Numerous additional dams proposed or in progress

- Proposed dams will be transformative to regional agriculture

- World class supply chains

- Easy access to Port of Townsville and Cairns Airhub

- Ongoing investment in infrastructure

- Skilled and educated regional population

- Readily available equipment, genetics, systems and support services

LAND WATER RESOURCES

North West Queensland covers a vast area the size of Japan or Germany

2

South Island150

North Island117

West Virginia62

Maine92

Maryland 25

Vermont24

New Hampshire23

Connecticut 13

New Jersey19

New York122

Slovakia49

Ireland70

Denmark43

Switzerland41

Netherlands37

Belgium31

Hungary93

Hong Kong1

Guangdong180

Guangxi195

Hokkaido83

Honshu228

Shikoku19

Kyushu 36

Other 12

Taiwan36

South Korea100

North Korea121

North West Queensland Japan Selec t SE C hina Selec t NE USA Selec t Europe Germany New Zealand Othe r East A sia

33

TOTAL AREA: NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND VS. SELECT REGIONSKm2; 000; 2018

Source: CIA World Fact Book; Wikipedia; Coriolis analysis

378 376 380364

270256

375

357

34*NT Median Indexed; Source: Rural Bank, Australian Farmland Values; Coriolis analysis

Land is cheap compared with other parts of Australia

NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND

$4,051

$8,694

$282

QLD Average

QLD North

QLD West

$3,946

$13,941

$96

NSW Average

NSW North Coast

NSW Western

$1,931

$9,579

$891

WA Average

WA South West

WA North

$310

$620

NT Average*

NT CattleRegion

AVERAGE FARMLAND PRICEA$/ha; 2017

$3,500

$4,706

$733

SA Average

SA York and North

SA Eyre

The region gets high sunshine hours and has warm average temperatures

35

AVERAGE DAILY SUNSHINE HOURSAnnual, 2018

Source: Commonwealth of Australia - Bureau of Meteorology; CC3.0; modified by Coriolis; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/

AVERAGE DAILY MEAN TEMPERATUREAnnual; temperature; OC

Average 7-9 hrs Max. Min. Over # years

.Cloncurry

Normanton 42.9 6.7 18Cloncurry 46.9 2.9 25Richmond 45 -1 21Georgetown 42.8 0.5 14

.Georgetown. Richmond

Only North West Queensland can deliver a region that combines a modern, developed economy with African climatic conditions

36Photo credit: Dollar Photo purchased by Coriolis Research

- Warm semi arid and tropical savanna climates with some warm desert

- Long sunshine hours

- Wet and dry production possible

- Counter seasonal production

- Potential of triple cropping

- Supplied to world market by climatic peers and produced successfully in the region

On the doorstep of East and South East Asia

Modern, efficient economy with strong rule of law

- Strong demand from high value markets

- Excellent proximity to high demand markets in East & South-East Asia

- Short transport times and distances

- In the same (or similar) time zones

- FTA agreements with most key trading partners

- Protected by Australia’s island location and strong biosecurity

- Strong reputation with consumers as a safe and secure food producer

- Strong investor protection, highly ranked in “ease of doing business” and rule-of-law

- AAA sovereign risk rating

Crops suited to regional conditions and climate

AFRICAN CLIMATE

CLOSE TO MARKETS

SAFE & TRUSTEDMODERN

Efficient, world class, modernproduction system

- Very large, highly efficient farms

- World class agriculture production systems and proven capability

- Modern distribution infrastructure

- Well funded science and research

- Highly skilled at producing arable crops at scale in an arid climate

- Skilled and educated farmers

- Long history of agriculture and global trade in QLD

WHERE CAN WE GROW?

+Three Horizons of Growth

03

North West Queensland has three horizons for agricultural growth

38

THREE HORIZONS OF GROWTH FRAMEWORK: NORTH WEST QUEENSLANDModel; 2017

Source: Coriolis analysis




HORIZON 1 HORIZON 2 HORIZON 3

With investment, North West Queensland can create $1.35b in new agricultural growth across these three horizons

Estimated current value ofagriculture in the region

Upside available fromimproved cattle outcomes

Upside available from newregional dams

Upside available from newcrops grown in climatic peers

Regional potential

39

GROWTH BRIDGE: POTENTIAL UPSIDE FROM THREE GROWTH HORIZONSA$; m; nominal 2017

Source: ABS (7121.0; 7503.0); MLA; UN FAO; UN Comtrade; other Coriolis research; Coriolis estimates, analysis and modelling


$760m

+$480m

+$460m

+$400m +$2,100m

+$1.35b


HORIZON 2Support emerging projects

& products


INDICATIVE/DIRECTIONAL

This revenue growth bridge uses the following assumptions

+115,000 ha

(As listed report)

$4,000 ha

(Cotton is $3,000)

HORIZON 2$460mx

Turnoff of 184k new cattle

(better management)

+20% more weight per cow

(more fodder/feed crops)

+20% more $/kg for cattle

(better quality and branding)

1,920k cattle608k turnoff

(est. at 32% of head; Queensland average)

x x x

=

HORIZON 1$480m=

Sesame$250m

(See report)

Mung$70m

(See report)

Shea$40m

(See report)

Other$40m

(Jojoba, castor, etc.; see S1/S2 report)

HORIZON 3$400mx x x =

HORIZON 1 (Cattle improves as follows)

HORIZON 2 (All proposed land comes online at +33% better than cotton, but at cotton productivity (i.e. employment ratios))

HORIZON 3 (New African crops perform as modelled elsewhere and create employment at AU average)


Creating this level of agricultural growth in North West Queensland could create up to 4,800 new jobs

Current employment inagriculture

Upside available fromimproved cattle outcomes

Upside available from newregional dams

Upside available from newcrops grown in climatic peers

Potential regionalemployment

41

GROWTH BRIDGE: POTENTIAL UPSIDE FROM THREE GROWTH HORIZONSA$; m; nominal 2017

Source: ABS (7121.0; 7503.0; 6291.0); MLA; HIA; Cotton Australia; UN FAO; UN Comtrade; other Coriolis research; Coriolis estimates, analysis and modelling


1,308

+800-850

+1,500-2,000

~6,100

+4,800 new jobs

+2,000-2,200


HORIZON 2Support emerging projects

& products


INDICATIVE/DIRECTIONAL

This employment growth bridge uses the following assumptions

+115,000 ha

(As listed report)

0.0172Jobs/ha

(Cotton average)

HORIZON 21,500-2,000 jobs

(1,973)x

$581,040Revenue/employee(Current North West Queensland regional

average)

HORIZON 1$480m /

=

HORIZON 1800-850 jobs

(826)=

HORIZON 3$400m

In new ag revenue

$189,540Revenue/employee

(AU total ag average)

HORIZON 32,000-2,200 jobs

(2,110)/ =

HORIZON 1 (Cattle improves as follows)

HORIZON 2 (All proposed land comes online at +33% better than cotton, but at cotton productivity (i.e. employment ratios))

HORIZON 3 (New African crops perform as modelled elsewhere and create employment at AU average)


Realising growth across these three horizons will require focus and effort by all stakeholders

43


Source: Coriolis model

− Defend and extend profitability of core business

− Efficiency & cost control− Process innovation− Scale/consolidation− Supply chain

− Profits, margins, costs

− Pastoral livestock (cattle)− On-farm feed crops (e.g. sorghum)− Potential for regional abattoir

Strategic Focus

Key success factors

Key metrics

Example products

− Expand and grow emerging businesses & products

− New infrastructure (e.g. dams)− Skills at navigating government− Investment/resources/funding− Speed, flexibility & execution

− Revenue, growth− New investment

− Water intensive products − High value dryland where possible− Including cotton, grain sorghum, mung,

mango, peanuts and grapes

− Discover and develop new options for growth

− Vision & mindset− Risk taking− Market insight− Culture & incentives

− Discovered options− Developments explored/trialled− Investment, number of investors− Quantity /volume of investment

− Climatically suited products− Crops produced in climatic peer group

regions that are demanded in key markets such as Asia

− Including sesame, shea, castor, cassava and jojoba





Progress is not linear; the three horizons support each other and build on growth

44

GROWTH

GROWTH

GROWTH

FodderAnimal Feed

FodderAnimal Feed





Horizon 1 for North West Queensland agriculture is growing and building on the region’s world class cattle operations

45







+$480m+800-850 jobs

North West Queensland has an opportunity to produce more high quality, high value cattle - The North West Queensland Cattle industry is large and productive, but relatively mature

- 99% of regional agricultural production currently comes from cattle, with a regional turnoff of around 800k head/year

- North West Queensland has a demonstrated capability to stock cattle at higher densities than other similar regions due to its productive climate

- Regional cattle numbers have stabilised recently, following a long period of growth achieved, in part, by “replacing sheep”

- Regional cattle farming is improving efficiency and productivity through consolidation into fewer, larger farms

- North West Queensland’s success in cattle is driven by strong drivers and real comparative advantage

- The North West Queensland cattle industry has opportunities for further growth

- There are significant opportunities for additional dryland fodder production to support backgrounding operations

- The region has two distinct supply chains: live animals for export and domestic processing supply

- A new abattoir could be developed to support the region

46


99% of regional agricultural production currently comes from cattle, with a regional turnoff of around 800k head/year

Cattle98.6%

Other 1.4%

47

VALUE OF REGIONAL AGRICULTUREGVP; 2016/17

REGIONAL CATTLE TURNOFF BY DEST.Head of cattle; 2017

Source: ABS: Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced; Coriolis estimates and assumptions

TOTAL VALUE: A$780m

HORIZON 2 HORIZON 3HORIZON 1

Finishing and

Feedlots400,000

Live Export 200,000

Direct to Meatworks 200,000

TOTAL = 800,000 head

Darwin, Karumbaand Townsville

To East Coast and Southern properties for

additional feeding

JBSwift (Townsville)JBSwift (Rockhampton)Teys (Emerald)Others

NorthernTerritories

North West Queensland has a demonstrated capability to stock cattle at higher densities than other similar regions due to its productive climate and a greater area of accessible productive native grasslands

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

NT 09 NT 17 SG 09 SG 17 NG 09 NG 17 SWQ09

SWQ17

DC 09 DC 17 RL 09 RL 17 SAA 09 SAA 17

Cattle Sheep

48

NUMBER OF CATTLE & SHEEP PER 1000 HECTARES OF AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGSHead/1000 ha; 2009 vs. 2017

Source: ABS 7121.0 2016-17; Coriolis analysis

Southern Gulf

Northern Gulf

South WestQueensland

DesertChannels

RangelandsWA

SA AridLands

USING NRM REGIONS

RELEVANT QUEENSLAND REGIONS


Regional cattle numbers have stabilised recently, following a long period of growth achieved, in part, by “replacing sheep”

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1937

1947

1957

1967

1977

1987

1997

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

49

NUMBER OF CATTLE IN REGIONHead; point-in-time inventory; 1937-2017

# OF LIVESTOCK IN REGIONHead; m; 1937-2017

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Source: wide range of ABS (and predecessor organisation) publications; Coriolis modelling & analysis


71 YEARCAGR1%

9 YEARCAGR-3%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1937

1947

1957

1967

1977

1987

1997

2008

2017

Sheep

Cattle

All other livestock

Regional pastoral or beef enterprises are improving efficiency and productivity through consolidation into fewer, larger farms

50

NUMBER OF FARMS WITH CATTLEUnits; 1957-2017

AVERAGE HEAD OF CATTLE/FARMHead/units; 1957-2017

Source: wide range of ABS (and predecessor organisation) publications; Coriolis modelling & analysis

557 579

528

467 467

403 358

1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2010 2017


2,303

1,905

3,136

2,715

3,203

4,270 4,257

1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2010 2017

North West Queensland’s success in cattle is driven by strong drivers and real comparative advantage

High Quality Animals

Highly Skilled Pastoralists

Modern, Innovative Grazing Management Systems

100% Pasture-Fed Animals that are Basically Organic

Environmentally Sustainable Land Use

Massive Area of Native Grasslands



There are significant opportunities for additional dryland fodder production to support backgrounding operations

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Niger Ethiopia BurkinaFaso

Mali Chad SouthSudan

Eritrea Senegal Kenya Somalia Botswana Namibia North WestQueensland

52

EXAMPLE: AREA PLANTED IN SORGHUM: NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND VS. PEERSHectares; 000; 2016 or 17

Source: UN FAOSTAT; ABS (7121.0); Coriolis analysis


The North West Queensland cattle industry has opportunities for further growth

53Source: various published articles and reports; Coriolis interviews; Coriolis analysis

OPPORTUNITY DETAILS PRIVATE INVESTMENT REQUIRED

Land can be made more productive

- Some properties can improve grazing management systems

- Invest in additional water stations

- Invest in fencing to allow break feeding to manage feed

Quality of local cattle not being recognised or realised

- Local cattle do not achieve superior prices

- Other regions are achieving success through strongly focused on feedlotting and Wagyu cattle

- Further investment in premium genetics

- Emphasise and develop grass fed premium

- Invest in production of on-site forage production (e.g. dryland sorghum, leucaena) to maximise weight gain, especially in Downs country (no clearing required)

- JV partnerships between cattle operations and crop operators to utilise products as supplementary feed

More calves can be produced in the North

- Northern region primarily breeding stations

- Feed quality/availability impacts conception rate, and increases turn-off rate

Improve operations on backgrounding properties

- Opportunities to add more weight to cattle on backgrounding properties

- Opportunities for added vertical integration to meet feedlot demands

- On-site feed enables cattle to be held longer and reach higher weights

- Opportunities to utilise potential new regional crops (e.g. Cotton seed as supplementary feed)

Supply chain efficiency can be improved

- Inefficiencies exist in places

- Quality can be improved

- Further invest in holding yards, sale yards, washdown facilities, rail cars, etc.

Progress regional abattoir - Regional cattle are not currently processed in the region

- Construction of new regional abattoir

Target high value, stable markets - Opportunities exist to supply into the boxed beef and export market for pasture-fed, clean green cattle

- Invest in developing vertically integrated supply chains to high value markets

- Emphasise and develop grass fed premium


Horizon 2 for North West Queensland agriculture will be enabled by investment in irrigation infrastructure

54






+$460m1,500+ jobs

North West Queensland can achieve substantial growth through investment in regional water projects and infrastructure

- North West Queensland can create growth through improved access to water

- North West Queensland receives a lot of water, very little of which is currently used for agriculture

- While the area is not a tropical paradise, it does receive more rain than many countries

- However, rainfall varies significantly by location, by season and year to year

- There are significant amounts of water in the region available for agricultural development

- Development will come from continued investment in both the large proposed and in-progress projects in the region

- Major proposed water projects in the region could unlock 115,000ha of productive farmland and enable strong growth

- As an example of other, smaller developments in progress, Etta Plains has 19,500 ha of potential crop land and available water

- Increased irrigation enables strong synergies and creates a positive growth loop for the region

- Research highlights seven products – cotton, sorghum, mung, mango, grapes and peanuts - as Horizon 2 opportunities for North West Queensland (particularly under irrigation)

55


North West Queensland can create growth through improved access to water



Opportunities exist to improve availability of surface water in some locations

- Use of natural rainfall is (obviously) free

- Timing of rainfall can be inconsistent and variable, particularly in some areas

- Diversion of surface water requires a water “allocation” from government

- Allocations do not guarantee water as take, as this is limited at times of drought and no-flow/low-flow

- Funding for development costs to divert and hold surface water are possible

- Produce high value and climatically suitable products

- Access accurate weather forecasting

- Manage timing

- Invest in irrigation

- Explore JV with existing surface water allocation holders

- Investment in establishing water infrastructure for existing allocations

Opportunities exist to store and utilise water as required

- Large amounts of water are available at some times

- There are multiple potential solutions for water storage on site

- Investment in ring tanks

- Investment of weirs, channels and small dams

- Investment in large dams

Massive regional growth will be unlocked by water projects

- Existing dam water (e.g. Lake Julius) expensive and currently unavailable

- Dams require substantial investment

- Major infrastructure projects can have long timeframes

- Water projects must be developed to enable transformative regional growth

- In parallel, implement short/medium term projects using products and locations that do not require large scale infrastructure


North West Queensland receives a lot of water, very little of which is currently used for agriculture

“The Gulf of Carpentaria receives 25.6% of the nation’s water run-off, yet less than 1% of the Gulf’s water is allocated for town, mining, industrial and irrigated agricultural use. According to Gulf Savannah Development, hydrological assessments show that an average annual volume of about 23 million megalitres of water is discharged from the rivers of the Gulf. Compared with the Murray Darling Basin, where the volume of water is 23,734 gigalitres per year, the Gulf region’s catchments receive 95,615 gigalitres per year.” Australians for Northern Developing & Economic Vision (ANDEV), March 2014

“North Queensland’s Flinders catchment, comprising an area of approximately 109,000 km2, drains into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria…Dryland and irrigated cropping currently occupy less than 0.02% of the landscape… The Flinders River is Queensland’s longest river and its largest tributary is the Cloncurry River…The Flinders River has a streamflow of, on average, 2543 GL/year.” CSIRO, Agricultural resource assessment for the Flinders Catchment, 2013

“North Queensland’s Gilbert catchment, comprising an area of approximately 46,000 km2, drains into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria…Dryland and irrigated cropping currently occupy less than 0.02% of the landscape… The catchment has two major rivers, the Gilbert and the Einasleigh, with a combined streamflow at their confluence of, on average, 3706 GL/year.” CSIRO, Agricultural resource assessment for the Gilbert Catchment, 2013

57Source: Submission to the Joint Select Committee on Northern Australia; Submission 147, Appendix C, March 2014; CSIRO


While the area is not a tropical paradise, it does receive more rain than many climatic peer group countries

58

TOTAL AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND VS CLIMATIC PEERS Average precipitation in depth; mm/year; 2014

*Georgetown 14 year average; Richmond 21 year average; Source: World Bank; Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; Coriolis analysis

*


* Note: Significant climatic variability apparent within the season and between seasons

151216

250282282285

322384

416450

534

630686

748

839848900

Niger

Iraq

Suda

nMali

Somali

a

Namibi

aCha

dEri

trea

Botsw

ana

Richm

ond

Austra

liaKe

nya

Sene

gal

Burki

na Fa

so

Georg

etown

Ethiop

ia

South

Suda

n

However, rainfall varies significantly by location, by season…

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Georgetown Richmond Cloncurry Burketown

59

AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALLAnnual; average over 30 years

MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL BY AREAmm; long term*

* Georgetown 14 year average, Richmond 21 year average; Cloncurry 25 year average; Burketown 17 year average; Source: Commonwealth of Australia - Bureau of Meteorology; CC3.0; modified by Coriolis; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/

.Cloncurry


…and year to year

60

GEORGETOWN TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALLmm/total rainfall* 2009vs2013

* Georgetown 14 year average, Richmond 21 year average; Source: Commonwealth of Australia - Bureau of Meteorology

RICHMOND TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL mm/total rainfall* 2009vs2013

0

100

200

300

400

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2009 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2009 2013


There are significant amounts of water in the region available for agricultural development

TOTAL VOLUMES OF “GENERAL UNALLOCATED WATER” (ML) AS OF SEPT

2017*EXISTING IRRIGATION PRIOR TO 2012 (ML)

GENERAL UNALLOCATED WATER RELEASES SINCE 2012 (ML)

GRANTEDJULY 2012

GRANTED NOV 2015

GRANTED AUG 2017

Flinders River Catchment 239,650 17,280 80,000 92,500 7,500

Gilbert River Catchment 467,000 9,115 14,200 Process ongoing

Other Catchments 24,900 7,500

Gulf Total 731,550 94,200 100,000 Process ongoing

61

SURFACE WATER GENERAL UNALLOCATED VOLUMES AND RELEASESML; Water Plan (Gulf) region; 2018

*Current as at 2 September 2017. Source: DNRM Water Resource (Gulf) Plan 2007 Sale of unallocated water: tender assessment report 2013 & 2017; Water Plan (Gulf) 2007; CSIRO; Coriolis analysis


PRELIMINARYReview of secondary sources out of scope

Development will come from continued investment in both the large proposed and in-progress projects in the region

62NWIDF – National Water Infrastructure Development Fund. Source: DSDMIP, Coordinator General projects; various websites; Coriolis interviews; Coriolis analysis

PROJECT LEAD PROPONENT DETAIL CURENT STATUS

15 MILE PROJECT

Flinders Council - Multiple operations proposed at site with multiple business proponents involved: Table grapes (60ha), F&V (60ha); Abattoir and associated feedlot, CYCN Investment (918ha)

- Water sourced from shallow groundwater

- Coordinated Project Status (DSD)- IAR in progress- Issues – restrictions on land clearing

GILBERT RIVER IRRIGATION SCHEME

Etheridge Council - Developing business case to manage 390,000ML; building dam at Green Hills to deliver 200,000ML water and open up 20,000ha; land and water parcels sold separately; 173 jobs and Gross benefit to region $536m

- Mixed land tenure/native title - Builds on previous Green Hills and Dagworth feasibility study (existing

crop/hay operations at Forest Home)

- MIPP2 (DSD) funding to develop business case – based on capital costs of $220-360m

- 10,000ML available on the market but expensive $600/ML ($6m investment)

3 RIVERS IRRIGATION PROJECT

Stanbroke Pty - Plan to irrigate 15,000ha cotton on Glenore Station, proposed ginnery, employing 75 people, current operation dryland

- Water allocation from lower Flinders River – 150,000ML/yr- Applying to change land to freehold

- Coordinated Project Status (DSDMIP)

CLONCURRY BIOFUELS PROJECT

Cloncurry Council - Biofuel Feasibility Study, 4ha farm trials of various crops, proposal for 500ha site; Proposed water from either: Lake Julius, or proposed Cave Hill Dam

- Cave Hill Dam Feasibility Study complete- Looking for NAIF funding, expensive development costs - Lake Julius options high cost ($3,000/ML currently to

mining operations)

RICHMOND AGRICULTURAL PROJECT

Richmond Council - Weir, channel and ringtank for irrigation project; proposal to draw 100,000ML/yr to water 11,000ha; 250,000ML ringtank, 10 blocks, initial cost ~$50m

- Have funding for detailed design plan (MIPP2) - Applied to office of Coordinator General for

Coordinated Project status; water allocation required

NORTH WEST QUEENSLAND WATER STORAGE

MITEZ - Proposed dam at Cave Hill to provide instream storage of 248,000ML in the Cloncurry River would cost $250m; water would cost approximately $6,200/ML aim to provide sufficient, affordable water to develop an irrigated agriculture precinct (sorghum to support feedlot and abattoir)

- Funded by the NWIDF

- Feasibility Study for Dam complete


Major proposed water projects in the region could unlock 115,000ha of productive farmland and enable strong growth

PROJECT NAMEPROPOSED WATER

SUPPLYPROPOSED AREA

IRRIGATED

Gilbert River Irrigation Scheme 200,000 ML 20,000 ha

3 Rivers Irrigation Project 150,000 ML 15,000 ha

Richmond Agricultural Project 100,000 ML 11,000 ha

North West Queensland Water Storage(Cave Hill Dam)

248,000ML 4,000-12,000ha

Dismal Creek Depression (Strathmore Station) 350,000 ML 35,000 ha

Other (Smaller, enterprise driven projects) ~25,000 ha

TOTAL 1,048,000 ML ~115,000 ha

63

MAJOR PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS IN VARIOUS STAGES OF DEVELOPMENTAs of late 2018

Source: various websites; Coriolis interviews; Coriolis analysis


PRELIMINARYReview of secondary sources out of scope

As an example of other, smaller developments in progress, Etta Plains has 19,500 ha of potential crop land and available water

64

EXAMPLE: ETTA PLAINS CROPPING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITYLatest available

Source: Coriolis interview, *AJM Pastoral promotional material

AJM PastoralProperty 28,442ha (120km North Julia Creek)

- 19,500ha potential cropping land- 9,500ha identified for irrigation agricultural development- 10,000ha dryland cropping

- 39,500ML water allocation from the Flinders River

- Gravity feed irrigation, sloping land suitable for irrigation- Opportunity for irrigation and dryland- No clearing required (Downs Country)- Black soil, self-cracking

- Options for sale, long term lease, JV

- Grazing Homestead Perpetual Lease (GHPL) in conversion to Freehold on (Lot 1 on CE3, Lot2 on MF18)

EXAMPLE CROPPING OPPORTUNITIES*

CROP YIELD (T/HA)

PRICE (A$/tonne);

2013WATER USE

(ML/HA)

Sorghum (grain)

7-9 220-280/t 3.5

Cotton 7-9 bales 440/bale 8-10

Mung bean 2.5-3 900/t 6-8

Sorghum (fodder)

n/a n/a 2-4

Chickpea 2.5-3 450/t 3


Increased irrigation enables strong synergies and creates a positive growth loop for the region

INCREASED CROP

PRODUCTION

MORE ANIMAL FEED BYPRODUCTS

MORE, HIGHER WEIGHT CATTLE

REGIONAL PROCESSING

GROWING REGIONAL ECONOMY

GROWING REGIONAL

EMPLOYMENT

CONTINUED REINVESTMENT IN GROWTH


POSITIVE GROWTH

LOOP


Research highlights seven products as opportunities for North West Queensland in Horizon 2


CATTLE COTTON SORGHUM MUNG

MANGO PEANUTSGOATS GRAPES

HORIZON 2 – CAN BE IRRIGATED OR GROWN DRYLAND

HORIZON 2 – ANIMALS


HORIZON 2 – WATER INTENSIVE CROPS

Crosses over Horizon 2 and 3

Horizon 3 for North West Queensland agriculture is new products not traditionally grown in the region and outside “comfort zone”

67






+$400m2,000+ jobs

Research sought high potential products that both fit regional conditions and had large and attractive global markets


Is there a largeand attractive

global market?What the North of WA can produce

MARKET DEMAND

FOCUS OF THIS PROJECT

PRODUCTIONCAPABILITY

Does it have a good fit with

regional conditions?

What markets want that the region can produce


SEE RELATED REPORT FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS

One hundred new and emerging products were considered for the region

Source: Coriolis analysis69

TREE CROPSNUTSCashewCoconutJojoba

PistachioSheaTung

FRUITBaobabCustard AppleDateDesert DateJackfruitLemon/LimeMango

MarulaPitaya PomegranateTable GrapeTamarind

NATIVE FOODSNative Foods(Desert limes, Davidson plum, Kakadu plum, wattleseed, caperbush, wild orange, wild passionfruit, conkerberry, ruby saltbush, desert fig, doubah, emu apple, quandong, bush tomato, parakeelya, bush potato, pencil yam, peppercresses, large pigweed, mulga seeds, dogwood seeds, witchetty bush seeds)

PLANTATIONAfrican MahoganyEucalyptus OilIndian Sandalwood

Oil PalmPongamiaMallee

HORTICULTUREBitter MelonCassavaChilliCucumberHorned MelonMelonOkraOnionPumpkin/SquashSnake BeanSweet CornSweet PotatoTaroYam

BROADACRE/FIELD CROPSANIMAL FEEDAmaranth BambatsiCanary GrassGrain Sorghum

LablabLeucaenaLucerneMaize

INDUSTRIALBlue AgaveCastorCottonFlaxseed GuarHempJuteKenaf

MustardSafflowerSteviaSugarcaneSunn HempTriodia (“Spinifex”)

FOODBambaraCanolaChiaChickpeaCorianderFenugreekFonioLentilMateMungbean

Native RicePeanutPearl MilletPeppercornQuinoaRiceSesameSoybeanSunflowerTeff

ANIMALSAQUACULTUREBarramundiPrawnRedclaw CrayfishSilver Perch

MEATBuffalo MeatCamel MeatEmu MeatGoatmeatKangaroo MeatOstrich MeatRabbit MeatWild Pig

DAIRYBuffalo MilkCamel MilkGoat MilkSheep Milk

FIBRE/LEATHERAlpaca FibreCrocodileGoat Fibre

SEE RELATED REPORT FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS


Six new Horizon 3 products with high potential for growth were identified for North West Queensland



SHEA$40m

CASTOR$20m

SESAME$250m

CASSAVA$10m

JOJOBA$10m

MUNG$70m

SEE RELATED REPORTS FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS

IDENTIFIED POTENTIALLY TRANSFORMATIVE HORIZON 3 OPPORTUNITIES

Crosses over Horizon 2 and 3

The identified Horizon 3 crops can progress rapidly as they overcome regional limitations

1. Location

2. Environment

3. Water

4.Land

6. Skills & Mindset


Robust, transport friendly crops that can be mechanically

harvested

Proven performance in similar climates elsewhere

Highly water efficient with strong tolerance for drought conditions

Do not require irrigationSuited to existing, available land

and locations

Good fit with existing Australian skills and capabilities in arable grains, pulses and tree crops

SEE RELATED REPORTS FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS

POTENTIAL REGIONAL

LIMITATIONS


+Government actions required to deliver on implementation

04

Significant investment of time and resources is required to realisethe opportunity in North West Queensland



HORIZON 2Support emerging products


+$480m+800-850 jobs

+$460m1,500+ jobs

+$400m2,000+ jobs

Primarily existing/ongoing funding Required new funding

North West Queensland has a clear agricultural diversification action plan to realise the opportunity







VISION

ACTIONS

DRIVERS

HORIZONS







investment


Stakeholder, investors and all levels of government need to work collaboratively to realise the opportunity and create change

75

KEY STAKEHOLDERSModel; 2018


LOCALGOVERNMENT

STAKEHOLDERS& INVESTORS

A focused implementation team is needed to bring together the critical “pieces of the puzzle” required to deliver on the plan


LAND SKILLSSUPPLYCHAIN INVESTORS IN-MARKET

CUSTOMER

LAND

SKILLS

SUPPLYCHAIN

INVESTORS

IN-MARKETCUSTOMER

CLEAR NEED FOR AN IMPLEMENTATION TEAM TO PLAY A ROLE

As an example, realising the North West Queensland sesame opportunity requires multiple pieces to come together


EXAMPLE: “PIECES OF THE PUZZLE” REQUIRED TO REALISE THE SESAME OPPORTUNITYModel; 2018

375,486 sqkmin total

29.1m hectares in agriculture

~600 farms in region

AgronomistsCrop FarmersIndustry Bodies

Universities

LAND SKILLS SUPPLY CHAIN INVESTORS IN-MARKET

Bulk HandlingLogisticsGenetics

Trading HousesState Owned Enterprises

Private EquityInvestment Funds

Individuals

Oil ProcessorsBakeries

Food Manufacturing

Why do we need a focused implementation team?North West Queensland has a clear opportunity to transform regional agriculture by adopting identified crops from Sub-Saharan Africa that are in high demand in world markets. North West Queensland has the same climate. North West Queensland also has all of the key elements required for success: land, water and resources.

But success in this transformation is not assured or likely to be easy. The challenge is what Milton Friedman called “the Tyranny of the Status Quo,” the resistance to change that is inherent in any large group, organisation or society. North West Queensland’s pastoralists will not wake up tomorrow and suddenly become sesame farmers tied into complex global supply chains in East Asia. This nascent opportunity will not happen with “business as usual.” Action is required to catalyse investment and transformation.

Any review of organisational success throughout history will immediately reveal that transformative results are exclusively delivered by small, well resourced teams with a clear mandate and mission. Projects as diverse as the Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird, the original Apple Macintosh computer and the first Beatles album were all delivered by small, highly focused teams.

If the Government of Queensland wants to deliver on the transformation of North West Queensland agriculture it needs to form and fund a focused team

with a clear mandate and mission.

This focused team will require an investment by government of between $8m to $10m over four years to deliver growth. This investment is small relative to the $400m/year in potential ongoing new revenue and 2,000+ regional jobs that can be created.

The team requires three specific roles to enable regional agricultural diversification:

1. Development Coordination

We need to own up to the practical and indisputable fact that new land development in North West Queensland is not easy. The development process is long and complex.

Shepherding and coordinating new development through the required processes is the first critical role of the implementation team.

2. Opportunity Development

The three identified high potential opportunities are at varying stages of development in the region. Mungbeans and sesame are a year or two away from scaled up roll-out, while shea has a longer development pathway ahead. All three require both on the ground field work and wider supply chain development and optimisation work.

Nurturing the conditions required for success is the second critical role of the implementation team.

3. Opportunity Promotion

There are large and growing markets for all the high potential products identified, being specifically sesame, shea and mungbeans. However, there are also challenges with existing suppliers and supply chains. Therefore, as documented, there are clear and strong market demands for new supply of all the products identified.

For each high potential product research has identified specific firms that participate in the post farm value chain. For example, key firms in the shea nut/butter value chain include AAK (Sweden), Bunge (USA), Fuji Oil (Japan) and 3F Industries (India). These firms, and others, need to be made aware of the North West Queensland opportunity.

Promoting the opportunity in North West Queensland to specific high potential targets is the third critical role of the implementation team.

- - - -

Only a small, well resourced and focused team can transform regional agriculture in North West Queensland.


The team needs to deliver on (1) development coordination, (2) opportunity development and (3) opportunity promotion


SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT ATTRACT INVESTMENT

1. DEVELOPMENTCOORDINATION

2. OPPORTUNITYDEVELOPMENT

• Opportunity Work-up• Required R&D• Location Identification• Supply Chain Optimisation• Identifying Gaps, etc.

• Investment Identification• Introduce Partners• Develop & Deliver

Messaging• Investment Promotion

3. OPPORTUNITYPROMOTION

• Opportunity Prioritisation• Project Management• Resource Alignment

The Strategy and Implementation Plan and its team needs to be constructed around realising the opportunities

KEY TEAM ROLE

KEY TEAM OBJECTIVES

REQUIRED SUPPORTING ACTIONS

1. Development Coordination

Opportunity Prioritisation

- Identify and understand regional opportunities- Evaluate opportunities across key criteria- Prioritise high potential opportunities

Project Management

- Support new and emerging projects- Coordinate stakeholders and processes- Facilitate on schedule project development/delivery

Resource Alignment

- Identify required resources required for delivery- Enable coordinated resource delivery- Leverage existing available resources


Opportunity Work up

- Plan development and delivery across stage gates- Support “investment ready” opportunity development- Assign roles and responsibilities

Required R&D - Audit existing activities, resources and needs- Deliver focused R&D field trials- Leverage existing research and resources

Location Identification

- Assess specific requirements of opportunities- Engage with local proponents and stakeholders- Verify alignment with specific opportunities

Supply Chain Optimisation

- Audit existing situation and potential needs- Determine optimised delivery model - Facilitate investment at key bottlenecks

80

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION TEAM: KEY ROLES, OBJECTIVES AND ACTIONSModel; 2018


KEY TEAM ROLE

KEY TEAM OBJECTIVES

REQUIRED SUPPORTING ACTIONS


Identifying Gaps, etc.

- Deliver gap analysis to highlight priority needs- Identify solutions to mission critical gaps- Facilitate solutions from existing providers

3. Opportunity Promotion

Investment Identification

- Screen, identify and develop high potential investors- Engage with high potential targets- Leverage state and federal in-market resources

Introduce Partners

- Create real opportunities for engagement with region- Facilitate “pieces of the puzzle” coming together- Encourage engagement with all potential stakeholders

Develop & Deliver Messaging

- Develop clear messaging on specific opportunities- Deliver clear pitch to key stakeholders and investors- Engage with all critical audiences

Investment Promotion

- Identify key markets and events to target- Leverage existing Australian networks (e.g. AusTrade)- Activate potential investors to engage with region

This focused team will require an investment by government of between $8m to $10m over four years to deliver growth

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 4Y TOTAL

1. Development Coordination $0.5-0.7m $0.5-0.7m $0.4-0.5m $0.4-0.5m $1.8-2.3m

2. Opportunity Development $1.1-1.4m $0.8-1m $0.7-0.9m $0.7-0.9m $3.3-4.3m

3. Opportunity Promotion $0.4-0.5m $1.2-1.6m $0.6-0.8m $0.6-0.8m $2.8-3.6m

TOTAL $2.0-2.6m $2.5-3.3m $1.7-2.2m $1.7-2.2m $7.9-10.3m

81

GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT IS REQUIRED IN TEAM DIRECTLY TO FACILITATE GROWTHEstimate; Year1-4

* Assumes some salaries are paid by parent organisations contributing to a “virtual team”; Source: Coriolis analysis

DIRECT TEAM IMPLEMENTATION COSTSDOES NOT INCLUDE ALL WIDER STRATEGIC ACTIVITIES

(See appendix 1 for additional details of those)

This focused team needs to primarily work on delivering the three transformative Horizon 3 opportunities documented elsewhere


These opportunities will not happen with “business as usual”Action is required to catalyse investment and transformation

APPENDICES+A1: Detailed Actions

+A2: Improvement Opportunities

+A3: Current Trials

+A4: Stakeholder Engagement

+A5: Glossary

05

APPENDIX 1DETAILS OF STRATEGY & IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

84

NOTES ON DETAILS OF STRATEGY & IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

This section provides details of on the ongoing service and resource delivery required in agriculture in North West Queensland and the goals, tasks and actions required to

deliver on the strategy and implementation plan for regional diversification of agriculture in North West Queensland.

Numbering is a proposed/preliminary priority listing for each heading.

However, this would be open for negotiation by stakeholders.

There are ongoing requirements to continue to support cattle industry growth in the region (Horizon 1)









VISION

ACTIONS

DRIVERS

HORIZONS





investment


# GOALS/TASKS/ACTIONS TIMEFRAME RESPONSIBILITYEASE OF

IMPLEMENTATION IMPACT

HORIZON 1 - SUPPORT CATTLE INDUSTRY GROWTH1.1 DRIVE ON-FARM COMPETITIVENESS

1.1.1 Focus on net margin per hectare as a measure of profitability and kilograms of beef produced per hectare as a suitable measure of efficiency

1-2 years DAF; MLA 2 4

1.1.2 Increase the number of pastoralists receiving further training in business management and planning 1-2 years DAF; MLA 4 2

1.1.3 Develop measures such as improved grazing management practices, increase soil fertility and land renewal to increase grass utilisation on livestock farms

1-2 years DAF 4 2

1.1.4 Facilitate the further development of educational resources and information on best practice pasture management 6 months DAF 2 2

1.1.5 Develop knowledge transfer programmes and farmer education to ensure improved grassland management

1-2 years DAF 4 4

1.1.6 Explore and develop use of precision technologies, Ag-tech applicable to extensive grasslands based production (e.g. remote soil moisture, feed monitoring and sensing)

1-2 years DAF 2 0

1.1.7 Promote the use of latest on-farm data collection technologies to inform real time decision making processes

1-2 years DAF; service providers 4 0

1.1.8 Expand baseline data collection for region to allow measurement of productivity gains 1-3 years DAF; ABS; ABARES; MLA 4 0

1.1.9 Exploit potential of improved genetics to add value at farm level by improving breeding (including polled cattle to improve handling)

5 years+ Operators; MLA 2 0

1.1.10 Disseminate latest research on increasing cattle fertility levels 6 months DAF; MLA 4 4

1.1.11 Support drought relief to regional farmers As required State 4 4

86DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries; MLA: Meat and Livestock Australia. Source: Coriolis analysis

Low Med High0 2 4

PRELIMINARY/INDICATIVEHORIZON 1: ON-GOING SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS

# GOALS/TASKS/ACTIONS TIMEFRAME RESPONSIBILITY EASE OF IMPLEMENTATION IMPACT

1.2 ENHANCE SUPPLY CHAIN EFFICIENCY

1.2.1 Improve information flow from final consumer of live cattle in Indonesia (and elsewhere) back to producer 1-2 years MLA 0 2

1.2.2Explore options to increase availability of specific, detailed data on results by channel across the total supply chain, to increase transparency and better inform stakeholder understanding of their own specific, realised market returns

6 months Industry; MLA; DAF 2 2

1.2.3 Increase and expand contractual supply arrangements between producers and processors 2-3 years Industry 0 2

1.2.4 Focus on assisting the production of the market required specifications and production systems, to maximise returns to the farmer and the processing industry

2-3 years MLA 2 2

1.2.5 Align and sharpen industry incentives and build strong supply chain relationships with North West Queensland producers 1-2 years DAF; MLA 2 4

1.2.6 Develop innovative customer-focused sectoral supply chain solutions, covering all links within the chain

2-3 years DAF 0 2

1.2.7 Review regional infrastucture audit and support additional supply chain infrastructure upgrades 6 months DAF 4 2

1.2.8 Continue to lobby for funding for roading and rail upgrades Ongoing Local Government 4 2

1.2.9 Prioritise upgrading port infrastructure at Karumba and Townsville (in progress) 2-4 years State 2 2

1.2.10 Identify potential public-private partnerships to invest into supply chain improvements based on industry growth

Ongoing DAF; DSDMIP; TIQ 4 2

87DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries; MLA: Meat and Livestock Australia; ABS: Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARES: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. Source: Coriolis analysis Low Med High0 2 4



1.3 DEVELOP FEED GRAINS AND FODDER CROPS

1.3.1 Research on best performing fodder genetics in fodder crop (by region) 1-2 years DAF; MLA 4 2

1.3.2 Conduct research into best practice in fodder crop production in region 1-2 years DAF; MLA 4 4

1.3.3 Commission research into measurable best practice systems for sustainable intensification on-farm (agronomy, management etc.) 6 months DAF 4 2

1.3.4 Encourage greater use of on-farm production of supplementary feed under dryland production systems (currently under ~8ha/farm on average)

5 years+ DAF 4 4

1.3.5 Develop partnerships with pastoralists to develop “Best Practice Farm Models” to share learning across the region 1 year DAF; MLA 4 4

1.4 SUPPORT REGIONAL PROCESSING

1.4.1 Support the development of strategically located cattle processing facility 2-3 years DAF 4 4

1.4.2 Support on-going viability studies of regional cattle processing 2-3 years DAF; MLA; Industry 2 2

1.4.3 Review existing proposals; prioritise and assist 1 year DAF 4 4

1.4.4 Review existing blockages to regional processing 1 year DAF 4 4

1.4.5 Share learnings on best practice processing to enable low cost, high efficiency, high technology based processing

2 years DAF 2 4





1.5 IMPROVE REGIONAL REPUTATION FOR QUALITY BEEF

1.5.1Implement a strategy to position North West Queensland beef as a premium, sustainable and grass fed product leading to a growth of sales into high end retail and foodservice outlets; develop a "Face of the North West" to personalise the industry

2-3 years Industry; DAF 4 2

1.5.2 Build a strong brand image for North West Queensland beef capable of securing a significant price premium at retail and food service market outlets

5 years+ Industry; DAF 2 2

1.5.3 Investigate opportunities for including animal welfare standards and human health benefits of grass fed beef in the marketing messages for North West Queensland beef

6 months DAF; MLA 2 2

1.5.4 Develop strong reputation for quality and environmental sustainability of North West Queensland beef with customers

5 years+ Industry; DAF 2 2

1.5.5 Identify and promote North West Queensland’s unique selling points, including grassland based rearing, improved animal health, welfare and biosecurity etc

6 months DAF 2 2

1.5.6

Engage with retailers and foodservice operators to develop a partnership approach for the production of a unique North West Queensland beef, ensuring a harmonised and collaborative approach to market specifications, genetics, price points and farm management practices

2-3 years DAF 2 4

1.5.7 Identify global partners for investment into a vertically integrated beef supply 1 year DAF; TIQ 4 4

1.5.8 Explore opportunities to collaborate with TIQ in promoting regional beef industry as a tourist attraction

6 months DAF; TEQ 4 2

1.5.9 Identify, develop, reinforce and secure new markets, as well as supporting the trade in live exports

5 years+ DAF; MLA; State 2 4

1.5.10 Increased level of communication and engagement with and between processors and producers in terms of marketplace developments


1.5.11 Defend interests of the North West Queensland beef sector in international trade agreements pursued by Australia

5 years+ DAF 2 4

89DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries; MLA: Meat and Livestock Australia; DSDMIP: Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning; TIQ: Trade and Investment Queensland; TEQ: Tourism and Events Queensland. Source: Coriolis analysis Low Med High0 2 4




1.6 ADD VALUE THROUGH CATTLE R&D

1.6.1 Review intervention strategies for the rapid recognition, prevention and control of emerging livestock issues

6 months DAF 2 0

1.6.2 Explore options for alternative funding models for research in the sector 6 months DAF 2 2

1.6.3Explore research projects on the advantages of North West Queensland grass fed beef systems in comparison with other production systems (e.g. feedlot) with regards to animal welfare, health and taste along with any other relevant areas


1.6.4 Seek to ensure country of origin labelling requirements for beef in all markets; consider extending these to region of production

5 years+ DAF; State 2 2

90DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries; MLA: Meat and Livestock Australia; DSDMIP: Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning; TIQ: Trade and Investment Queensland; TEQ: Tourism and Events Queensland. Source: Coriolis analysis Low Med High0 2 4


There are ongoing requirements to continue to support emerging projects and products in the region (Horizon 2)









VISION

ACTIONS

DRIVERS

HORIZONS





investment



HORIZON 2 - SUPPORT INVESTMENT IN WATER PROJECTS2.1 LEVERAGE EXISTING ALLOCATIONS

2.1.1 Assist in investment attraction to the region and accessing potential partners 2 years DAF; TIQ 4 2

2.1.2 Develop strategies to support the success of new irrigated crops in the region through public-private partnerships

6 months DAF 2 4

2.1.3 Support trials of irrigated crops across the region 1-5 years DAF 4 4

2.2 SUPPORT PROJECT PROPONENTS

2.2.1 Guide high potential irrigation projects through existing processes and systems Ongoing DAF; DSDMIP; DNRME 4 4

2.2.2 Document potential sources of funding for irrigation projects 6 months DSDMIP 4 0

2.2.3 Create a favourable environment through which the private sector can be involved 1-2 years State; Federal Government 4 4

2.2.4 Develop model business case model for development, provide case studies 1-2 years DAF 4 4

2.2.5 Fund development of feasibility reports and business plans for new irrigation projects Ongoing State; Federal Government 4 4

2.2.6 Continued collaboration by state departments to deliver best economic outcomes while managing environmental outcomes

Ongoing DNRME; DES; DSDMIP; DAF 4 2

2.2.7 Promote regional potential to all levels of government and population outside of region 1-2 yearsDAF; Local Gvnt; NWQROC; MTEZ

4 2

2.2.8 Fund ongoing research into water availability in region Ongoing DSDMIP; DNRME 4 4

2.2.9 Fund additional water flow monitoring stations, where appropriate (to improve data, and effectiveness of existing water rights conditions) 2 years DNRME 2 2




2.2.10 Document all available suitable land for agricultural development Ongoing DAF 4 4

2.3 ENABLE LANDHOLDER DEVELOPMENT

2.3.1 Support existing landholders in developing property 1 years DAF 2 4

2.3.2 Provide extension support to existing irrigation in the region to improve performance and implement best practice

2-3 years DAF 4 4

2.3.3 Promote more efficient use of existing irrigation water (e.g. low pressure drop-tube pivot systems)

6 months DAF 2 4

2.3.4 Explore potential research and demonstration programs to test new and emerging sprinkler and water management technologies

2-3 years DAF; service providers 2 2

2.3.5Reduce regulatory burden to enable North West Queensland to get ahead of its competition in pursuing new opportunities; Government must work to convert this belief into a reality

2-3 years State; Federal Government 2 4

2.4 SUPPORT MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

2.4.1 Examine the processes surrounding access to funding, and bring forward proposals to simplify the process Ongoing DNRME; DES;

DSDMIP; DAF 4 2

2.4.2 Ensure North West Queensland receives a fair share of national investment in infrastructure Ongoing State; DSDMIP 0 4

2.4.3 Review funding options to support private enterprise conducting prefeasibility and scoping work

Ongoing State; DSDMIP 4 4

2.4.4 Provide additional financial support to viable local government initiatives to transform regional economies

Ongoing State; DSDMIP 0 4

2.4.5 Review mechanisms for public private partnership arrangements 3 months State; DSDMIP 4 4

2.4.6 Continue to fund electricity grid expansion and upgrades Ongoing Grid operators 0 2




2.5 IMPROVE PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS

2.5.1 Benchmark the application of irrigation and dam building legislation and standards internationally to identify best practice in cost effective regulation 2-3 years State; Federal

Government 2 2

2.5.2 Disseminate information about government processes required for irrigation and land development (clear steps, stages, timeframes, costs)

6 months DAF; DNRME 4 2

2.5.3 Review effectiveness of existing one-stop-shop system (timeframes, outcomes, costs) 1 year DSDMIP; DNRME 2 2

2.5.4 Review progress of existing red tape reduction programs; ensure program covers issues relevant to agricultural diversification in the NW (track progress) 1 year DAF 4 2

2.5.5 Investigate processes for more efficient facilitation of water trading between rights holders in region

1 year DNRME; DAF 2 2

2.5.6 Develop and promote regional irrigation forums (opportunities for learnings/networking) 6 months DAF 4 4

2.6 INVEST IN GROWTH

2.6.1 Assess Government readiness for agricultural diversification in the region 3 months DAF; DSDMIP 2 2

2.6.2 Ensure that agricultural diversification is a high priority of government leadership 3 months State Gvnt. 2 4

2.6.3 Ensure policy on agricultural development in region is evidence based 3 months DAF; DSDMIP; State 2 2

2.6.4 Assess if agricultural sector’s budget aligns with proposed transformation aspirations 3 months DAF; DSDMIP; State 4 4

2.6.5 Assess and explicitly state the different government objectives for economic diversification in region and reconcile

3 months DAF; DSDMIP; State 2 2

2.6.6 Ensure alignment exists among all levels of stakeholders (Federal, State, Local, landowners)

3 months DAF; DSDMIP; State 2 4

2.6.12 Present a clear, unequivocal, united Government position on development in region Ongoing State Gvnt. 4 4



Regional diversification into new crops needs support (Horizon 3)









VISION

ACTIONS

DRIVERS

HORIZONS





investment

HORIZON 3: DIVERSIFICATION SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS




3 HORIZON 3 - SUPPORT DIVERSIFICATION INTO NEW CROPS

3.1 DEVELOPMENT COORDINATION

3.1.1 Prioritise selected regions, crops, value chains for initial focus of diversification efforts 3 months DAF 4 4

3.1.2 Identify different areas and value chains within region for differentiated approach 3 months DAF 4 4

3.1.3 Develop a collaborative RD&E program with industry, government and university partners 6 months DAF, ONA 2 4

3.1.4 Develop strategies to support the success of new crops in the region through public-private partnerships

6 months DAF 2 4

3.1.5 Ensure best global genetics is available in Queensland; support the movement of these genetics through Australian biosecurity

6 months DAF 0 4

3.1.6 Conduct audit of regional support services focusing on needs of new crops 6 months DAF 4 2

3.1.7 Investigate new supply chain models that lead to value chain integration with key buyers in high value markets

6 months DAF 2 4

3.1.8 Develop optimum business models for each product and form commercial scale pilot programmes in order to prove the model before roll out across the individual operators

2-3 years DAF 2 4

3.1.9 Develop supportive policies for skills, research and effective regulation of new products 6 months DAF 2 2

3.1.10 Investigate potential lifecycle of high value waste streams emerging from new products 6 months DAF 2 4

3.1.11 Support localised weather and climate forecasting services Ongoing DAF 2 4

3.1.12 Establish grants program for farm level soil testing and monitoring program Ongoing DAF 2 2

3.1.13 Continue to support biosecurity controls in the region Ongoing DAF 4 2

3.1.14 Continue to support pest management programs in the region, focussing on those pests creating barriers to diversification

Ongoing DAF 4 2

96DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries. ONA: Office of Northern Australia. Source: Coriolis analysis

Low Med High0 2 4

PRELIMINARY/INDICATIVEHORIZON 3: DIVERSIFICATION SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS



3.2 OPPORTUNITY DEVELOPMENT

3.2.1Identify and equip regional “change agents” who are the frontline people helping producers to diversify (combining agronomy, farm management); create strong linkages into existing capacity-building DSD are working on in region

1-3 years DAF; DSD 2 2

3.2.2 Invest in specific leadership training for project managers and agricultural diversification team

3 months DAF; DSDMIP 2 4

3.2.3 Identify and host world class producers of identified Horizon 3 products operating at scale in climatic peer regions

6 months DAF; TIQ 4 4

3.2.4 Host regional field days offering hands on experience with new crops suited to the region Ongoing DAF 4 4

3.2.5 Establish demonstration farms across region to provide best practice example and training opportunities

5+ years DAF 2 4

3.2.6 Conduct audit to identify skills and capabilities gaps in the region; create strong linkages into existing capacity-building DSD are working on in region

6 months DAF; DESBT; DSD 4 2

3.2.7 Develop and promote regional provision that is specifically targeted at meeting the skills needs of employers in the cropping sector

Ongoing DESBT; DAF 2 2

3.2.8 Encourage existing cropping operator collaboration to improve skills 6 months DAF 2 4

3.2.9 Develop funding programme to access industry Agronomists 1 year DAF 2 4

3.2.10 Deliver targeted skills development support for the growing cropping sector 6 months DESBT; DAF; Industry bodies 2 4

3.2.11 Promote the sector and create opportunities for underrepresented groups 1-2 years DAF; State 2 2

3.2.12 Encourage training in risk assessment and management for producers moving into new cropping industry

Ongoing DESBT; DAF 4 4

97DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries; DSDMIP: Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning; DESBT: Department of Employment, Small Business and Training. TIQ: Trade and Investment Queensland. Source: Coriolis analysis Low Med High0 2 4




3.3 OPPORTUNITY PROMOTION

3.3.1 Investigate and develop new funding models 6 months DAF 2 4

3.3.2 Explore opportunities to develop and pursue collaboration with industry and government partners

6 months DAF 4 4

3.3.3 Identify and investigate world class, well-resourced global agribusiness firms that are investing in large scale tropical savannah/sahel production projects targeting exports

6 months DAF; TIQ 2 4

3.3.4 Develop promotional materials for region and specific opportunities as they arise to be distributed throughout government network and other agencies

Ongoing DAF; DSDMIP; TIQ 4 4

3.3.5 Promote diversification opportunities in the region to relevant state, national and international organisations

2-3 years DAF; TIQ 4 4

3.3.6 Organise tours, field days, showcases of the region to identified potential investors 2-3 years DAF; DSDMIP; TIQ 4 4

3.3.7 Investigate potential of regional investment attraction team/office to feed investor pipeline and co-ordinate investment attraction

6 monthsDAF; DSDMIP; MITEZ; NWQROC

4 4

98DAF: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries; DSDMIP: Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning; TIQ: Trade and Investment Queensland; MITEZ: Mount Isa to Townsville Economic Development Zone; NWQROC: North West Queensland Region of Councils. Source: Coriolis analysis Low Med High0 2 4


APPENDIX 2: DETAILS OF IMPROVEMENT OPPORTUNITIESIncreasing agricultural production in North West Queensland faces a range of key limitations or challenges

1. Location

2. Environment

3. Water

4.Land

6. Skills & Mindset


POTENTIAL REGIONAL

LIMITATIONS OR CHALLENGES

1. Opportunities exist to improve regional cost competitiveness through better logistics and infrastructure



Opportunities exist to improve regional logistics efficiency

- Many activities currently require more time and cost than they should

- Road transport times to ports and regional centres can be excessive

- Freight and transport costs can be high

- Receiving timely services can be challenging

- Implement products that are non-perishable, hardy and transport friendly

- Develop efficient logistics systems

- Create close relationships with suppliers and contractors

Opportunities exist to further invest in regional infrastructure

- Road

- Rail

- Electricity

- Port

- Some key roads remain unsealed and narrow (e.g. East of Georgetown)

- Rail incompatible gauge NT to QLD

- Unreliable electricity at some locations Townsville port currently unable to support large container ships (channel widening project underway, to allow larger ships)

- Karumba port limited capacity beyond live cattle, mining and fishing

- Ensure high efficiency of all operations

- Consider local electricity production (e.g. solar)

Opportunities exist to improve regional supporting products and services

- Potentially higher costs of sourcing inputs

- Access to some products or services can take too long

- Regional support in some areas is limited

- Plan for more inventory on hand of key parts

- Implement better planning and scheduling

- Coordinate with other operators to share costs, equipment and service calls

2. Opportunities exist to better manage and respond to environmental conditions



Opportunities exist to improve response to environmental outcomes

- Rainfall volumes and timing both extremely variable (e.g. early rain)

- Potential for flooding in rainy season- Cyclone zone in the Gulf

- Temperatures can be very high for extended periods

- Region historically prone to drought

- Water inundation and water logging

- Risk of burn/wilt to crops

- Grow climatically suitable products

- Implement ongoing risk assessment


- Manage timing precisely

Opportunities exist to better utilise the wide variety of soil types in the region

- Crops and development highly dependent on regional soil type

- Two key soil types: (1) vertisols (black cracking soil with high fertility, good water holding capacity) and (2) red soils (low fertility, low water holding capacity and poor structure)

- Unable to access land on vertisols (black cracking) after rainfall

- Clearly assess local soils before development

- Plan and schedule for access on black soils

- Utilise all available regional soil type resources (e.g. CSIRO reports)

Opportunities exist to improve pest management systems and strategies

- Presence of various pests: locust swarms, brolga (Australian crane), fruit bats, kangaroos, wild dogs, and various insects

- Potentially for crop loss from insects and birds

- Potential for animal losses from wild dogs

- Risk mitigation for new development required

- Identify chemical and physical crop protection system before production

- Research into best varieties

3. Opportunities exist to enable more regional water



Opportunities exist to improve availability of surface water in some locations

- Use of natural rainfall is (obviously) free

- Timing of rainfall can be inconsistent and variable, particularly in some areas

- Diversion of surface water requires a water “allocation” from government

- Allocations do not guarantee water as take is limited at certain times

- Development costs to divert and hold surface water are possible

- Produce high value and climatically suitable products


- Manage timing

- Invest in irrigation

- Explore JV with existing surface water allocation holders

- Investment in establishing water infrastructure for existing allocations

Massive regional growth will be unlocked by dams

- Existing dam water (e.g. Lake Julius) expensive and currently unavailable

- Dams require substantial investment

- Major infrastructure projects can have long timeframes

- Government must build more dams to enable transformative regional growth

- In parallel, implement short/medium term projects using products and locations that do not require large scale government infrastructure

4. Opportunities exist to better enable land development…



More land could be converted into freehold land

More land could be leased by the government to operators

Traditional owners of the land (Aboriginal groups) are not currently fully realising the potential of their land

Foreign investment restrictions on land ownership could be relaxed

- 28% of land in QLD is freehold, 64% is leasehold

- Freehold land can be developed

- Leasehold land is government owned land under (term leases, perpetual leases and freehold leases); Pastoral leases are term leases and can only be used for the purpose identified in the lease

- Some leaseholders may not be making large scale, long term investments in their property

- Crown Aboriginal Land is freehold (held in Trust) and can be developed

- Development on land with Native title must include the rights of, and engage with, the Traditional Owners; activities may be impacted by ‘future acts’

- Changes to use of leasehold land could be made less time consuming and lower cost

- Foreign investment restrictions are currently in place in Australia

- Ensure rules and conditions for crop production are understood and that clear property rights exist

- Focus high investment development in high potential lands

- Work with traditional owners in development process from planning stages forward

- Potential to form JV with existing pastoral lease holders

… continued

1041. https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/pdf/2017-07-03/act-1999-090. Source: various published articles and reports; Coriolis interviews; Coriolis analysis


Processes required to achieve approval to clear vegetation for high value agriculture can be improved

- Under the Vegetation Management Act 19991

-Vegetation is a native tree or plant other than the following - grass or non-woody herbage; a plant within a grassland regional ecosystem; a mangrove

- Limitations are placed on what vegetation is able to be cleared for high value agriculture

- Sites previously identified which had a clearing permit or which have a PMAV can be cleared and can be developed

- Projects with “Coordinated” status have less restrictive rules on land clearing

- Clearing regulated vegetation possible: under an exemption, if the activity fits within the scope of an “Accepted Development Vegetation Clearing Code”, Area Plans or under a permit1

- Development possible on Downs country where no clearing is required

- Develop in previously cleared areas

- Smaller organisations and family businesses will struggle to participate in significant land development

- Check regulations prior to development

- Focus on large projects; unfortunately this will increase project risk

- Budget for time delays and cost overruns in approvals process

- Projects must be large enough to afford minimum required paperwork

- Attempt to be declared a “Coordinated Project” by the Queensland Coordinator-General allowing for a coordinated planning and assessment process

Land development regulation and processes can be improved

- Land development in Australia is regulated

- Extensive “Impact assessments” are required

- Significant time can be required to progress through the required stages

- Development must consider impacts on nationally important flora and fauna, ecology, wetlands, heritage places, etc.

- Any activity causing serious environmental harm requires approval (e.g. relevant activities are aquaculture, feedlots, food processing production etc.)

5. Opportunities exist to develop regional skills and change regional mindsets



Opportunities exist to attract new labour to the region and develop local skills

- Low resident population

- Low availability of labour across all job types or specialisations

- Some specific or specialised skills do not exist locally

- Difficult to access reliable labour

- High cost of labour in the outback

- Develop employee sourcing and retention plan

- Implement products that can be mechanically harvested

- Build accommodation for labour (e.g. seasonal)

Opportunities exist to develop local skills with climatically suited products

- Limited crop production in the region

- Many high potential products have had limited or no trials in the area

- Developing new products in new regions is risky and requires significant time

- Trials across multiple locations to test conditions

- Focus efforts on species with proven results in the region

- Focus efforts on products with high returns that are climatically suited to the region

- Partner with external parties with new capital and new expertise to reduce risk

- Partner with land-owners to lease or sublease land for new developments

Opportunities exist to engage and enhance regional mindsets regarding development opportunities

- Primary producers are typically risk adverse with a limited appetite for high risk projects

- Need to support and celebrate first movers and pioneers in the region

- Existing operators may currently view themselves are “pastoralists” not “farmers”

- Some existing operators may not currently interested in diversified agriculture

APPENDIX 3: DETAILS OF CURRENT CROP TRIALS

STATION CROPS COMMENTS/NOTES

Etheridge Strathmore Station Cotton (6,000 acres)Sorghum, cowpea, mungbean, sesame (past trials)

Tried sesame but too early in trial, didn’t manage it well and it also flooded

Pappalardo Family/ Marathon Man Co Mangoes (22,000 R2E2; 16,000 Kensington Pride) -

Forest Home Station Cotton (130ha), corn, sorghum, hayGrain sorghum, mungbean, sesame trial, soybean trial

Using pivot irrigator; currently looking for share farmersContains a DAF research site that is trialing Cotton varieties, mung beans, sesame and soybeans in partnership with Forest Home

N/A N/A “Rumours” of peanuts, neem trees, diesel trees in the region in past

Burke Gregory Farm (part of Gregory Downs Station, 226,425ha)

Irrigated forage crops and native grasses baled (338ha) Owned by Paraway (Macquarie)

Escott Station Sorghum silage, Rhodes grass into hay -

Cloncurry Stanbroke (Three Rivers Project) Cotton, chickpeas Unclear if anything in ground yet; 15,000ha proposed; 28,800 ML allocation already; wants 122,000ML more

Cloncurry Biofuels Trial (in township) Sorghum, leucaena, sesame, canola, safflower, mustards, guar bean, pigeon pea, sunn hemp, sunflower, soybean, agave

Day to day work done by untrained council workers; very unsophisticated irrigation system

Carpentaria Lorraine Station Maize silage (150 ha of maize in 2017; 45t/ha; 6,500tonnes; 11,500t in 2016)Rhodes Grass hay, maize silage for own feedlot, grain sorghum

(240,000ha; 17,000 breeder cattle; 7,500 head feedlot (only 1,600 in it recently); 900ha irrigated cropping)“Rumoured” to have tried soybeans4 ringtanks; most recent was $5m investment

Richmond Silver Hills (500ha irrigated cropping) Sorghum silage for feedlot (grain & feed), mungbeans with irrigation, maize silage and grain for flour, cotton, adzuki bean, chickpea, guar bean (past trials), etc.

Guar beans didn’t work (wrong variety)

Sutherland Station Sorghum, forage/pasture -

AJM Pastoral Sorghum, forage Successfully grew sorghum 2018

106

KNOWN OR RUMOURED REGIONAL CROP PRODUCTIONAs of mid-2018

Source: various published articles; interviews, Coriolis analysis

PRELIMINARYKnown incompleteTreat as directional

Sorghum and cotton stand out as crops that are somewhat proven in the region, followed by mungbean and sesame

74

33

2222

11111111111

SorghumCotton

MungbeanSesame

Rhodes grassChickpeas

MaizeSoybeansCowpeaMangoesLeucaena

CanolaSafflowerMustards

Adzuki beanGuar bean

PeanutNeemDiesel

107

NUMBER OF KNOWN, RUMOURED OR TRIALED PRODUCTION SITESSeparate farming operations; 2018 or recently

Source: see page prior (various published articles; interviews)

SomewhatProven

More Speculative PRELIMINARY

Known incompleteTreat as directional

APPENDIX 4: STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT Thankyou to the stakeholders and teams who kindly gave their time and energy to the project

108

STAKEHOLDERS

- Warren Devin (Mayor), Etheridge Council- Norm Garsden (CEO), Etheridge Council- Gary Pickering (Operations), Croydon Council- Jane McNamara (Mayor), Flinders Council- Graham Sealy (Councillor), Flinders Council- Ernie Camp (Mayor), Carpentaria Council- Jack Bowen (Mayor), Burke Council- Mike Hayward (CEO), Burke Council- Mark Crawley (Deputy CEO), Mount Isa City Council- Greg Campbell (Mayor), Cloncurry Council - Belinda Murphy (Mayor), McKinlay Council- John Kelly (CEO), McKinlay Council- Peter Bennett (CEO), Richmond Council- Kevin Bawden, (Councillor), Richmond Council- Corbett Tritton, Silver Hills- James Lord, May Downs- Nikko Lord, Sutherland Station- Jim Lindsay, KLR Marketing- Peter Anderson, Strathmore- Alister McClymont, AJM Pastoral- Alison Collier, Port of Townsville- Helaina Bannister, Port of Townsville

- Andrew Maclean, Southern Gulf NRM- Glen Graham, MITEZ- Jed Matz, CRCNA- Tim McGrath, QDAF - Peter Leach, QDAF- Peter Siemen, QDNRME- Cameron Venables, QDNRME- Paul MacIntosh, Pulse Australia- Mark Schmidt, Australia Mungbean Assoc.- Brett Williams, QUT- Surya Bhattarai, CQU- Oron Gar, Equinom- Chris Lambridge, University of Queensland- Murry Smith, GHD- Tony Matchett, Savannah Agriculture Consulting- Angus Macdonald, Marsden Jacobs Associates- Joe Moro, Mareeba F&V Growers Assoc.- Steve Scurr, Pinata- Paul Fagg, Skybury Coffee- Denis and James Howe, Howe Farming- Colin and Ursula Verde, Red Claw Aquaverde

PROJECT SPONSORS

- Adam West (Regional Director - North Region), Queensland Department of Agriculture & Fisheries

- Gareth Jones (Manager, Regional Agribusiness Development, Trade & Investment), Queensland Department of Agriculture & Fisheries

- Greg Mason (Senior Industry Development Officer (Agribusiness)), Queensland Department of Agriculture & Fisheries

NWMP STRATEGIC BLUEPRINT – PROJECT LINKAGES

- John Hoare (Director - Economic and Industry Development) Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning

- Kate McClean (Project Manager, NWMP), Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning

INTERVIEWS AND ANALYSIS

- Tim Morris (Director), Coriolis Australia- Virginia Wilkinson (Director), Coriolis Australia- Nicki Hall (Consultant), Coriolis Australia- Professor David Hughes, “Dr Food”, Imperial College,

London

APPENDIX 5: GLOSSARY OF TERMS

109

A$/AUD Australian dollar FY Financial year (of firm in question)

ABS Absolute change HS Code Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System

ANZSIC AU/NZ Standard Industry Classification JV Joint venture

AU Australia m Million

Australasia Australia and New Zealand n/a Not available/not applicable

b Billion Nec/nes Not elsewhere classified/not elsewhere specified

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate N/C Not calculable

CIF Cost plus Insurance and Freight N.H Northern Hemisphere

CN China R&D Research and Development

CSIRO Crown Scientific Institute Research Organisation S.H Southern Hemisphere

EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization T Tonne

FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations US/USA United States of America

FOB Free on Board US$/USD United States dollar

FTA Free Trade Agreement

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