INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Strategy of World Bank for Supporting Power Sector Projects in Central Asia
Presentation byRaghuveer Sharma
Team Leader, Central Asia Energy ProgramsThe World Bank, Washington DC, USA
Conference onSustainable Development and Ecologically Secure
Functioning of Uzbekistan’s Energy Sector – Perspectives and Problems
September 20 to 22, 2005Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Strategic Context
• Fast growing demand for energy in Asia (China, India, but also Iran and Pakistan)
• Significant inefficiencies and large investment needs in Central Asia’s energy sectors
• Integrated power transmission systems, but domestic self-sufficiency strategies
• World Bank objective: – Unlocking power sector potential through exports– Priority investments to maximize efficiency gains
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Central Asia’s Electricity Export Potential
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Installed Capacity
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
I nstalled hydro capacity (MW) I nstalled thermal capacity (MW)
Installed thermal capacity (MW) 16300 15000 694 763 318 318 8573 9873 2528 2651 28413 28605
Installed hydro capacity (MW) 2200 2200 2790 2950 4037 4037 1710 1710 1 1 10738 10898
1994 2002 1994 2002 1994 2002 1994 2002 1994 2002 1994 2002
Kaz Kyr Taj Uzb Tur CA
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Annual Generation still less than in 1990
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
105000
GWh
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Power Generation by CA Power System in 1993-2003
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Annual Load CurvesEssentially Winter Peaking System
Central Asian Power System
Annual Load Curves 2000
0.0
1000.02000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.06000.0
7000.0
8000.09000.0
10000.0
Months
GW
h
Central Asia UPS
Kazakhstan South
J SC Kyrgyzenergo
Bark i Tojik
Kuvvat Turkmenistan
Min. of Energy of Uzbek.
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Central Asia and its Neighboring Electricity Export Markets
Rogun HPPInvestment US$2,455 mil.Capacity 3,600 MWAnnual Generation 13,000 GWhAIC of Generation 2.83 cents/kWh
Vaksh Cascade of HPPsActual Annual Generation 14,000 GWhAdditional Generation by the existent Cascade with Rogun HPP 300-1,500 GWh
Sangtuda HPPInvestment US$370 mil.Capacity 670 MWAnnual Generation 2,700 GWhAIC of Generation 1.97 cents/kWh
Talimarjan TPP Unit #1 Units #2-4Investment US$ mil. 100 1,200Capacity MW 800 2400Annual Generation 4,538 13,613AIC of Generation cents/kWh 1.68 2.76
Kambarata 1 HPPInvestment US$1,940 mil.Capacity 1,900 MWAnnual Generation 5,100 GWhAIC of Generation 7.17 cents/kWhKambarata 2 HPPInvestment US$280 mil.Capacity 240 MWAnnual Generation 1,116 GWhAIC of Generation 3.72 cents/kWh
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Central Asia - Supply/Demand Forecasts
Summers
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
GWh
Supply Demand
Winters
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
GWh
Supply Demand
Annual
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
GWh
Supply Demand
Surplus for Export
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Summer Winter
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Central Asia Regional Demand Supply Assessment Summary
• There is a shortage in the winter months currently– But this shortage is small – 5% of demand in those months
• Can be made up by loss reduction, efficiency improvement
• And trading for electricity• Even now, there is quite a surplus in summer – 11000
GWh available for export – minimum of 6000 GWh
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Central Asia Regional ViewExportable Surpluses in 2005
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Possible Transmission Links for Exports
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Estimates of Transmission Costs
Almaty-Urumqui 500 kV DC LineLength 1050 kilometers
Annual Power Transmission 10000 GWh
Investment US$ Mn.210Cost of Transmission 0.83 USc/kWh
SS Surhan-Mashad 500 kV AC Line
Length 1150 kilometers
Annual Power Transmission 10000 GWh
Investment US$ Mn.320Cost of Transmission 0.53 USc/kWh
Kabul-Tarbela 500 kV AC LineLength 360
kilometersAnnual Power Transmission 2000
GWhInvestment US$
Mn.90Cost of Transmission 0.66 USc/kWh
Kandahar-Karachi 500 kV AC LineLength 900
kilometersAnnual Power Transmission 3500
GWhInvestment US$ Mn.227Cost of Transmission 0.97 USc/kWh
Kabul-Kandahar 500 kV AC LineLength 490
kilometersAnnual Power Transmission 5000
GWhInvestment US$ Mn.118Cost of Transmission 0.35 USc/kWh
SS Surhan-Kabul 500 kV AC LineLength 515
kilometersAnnual Power Transmission 10000
GWhInvestment US$ Mn.153Cost of Transmission 0.22 USc/kWh
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Competitiveness of Central Asian Electricity in Neighboring Markets
Table 5. 1: Marginal Costs of Generation in Target Markets versus Import Costs (cents/kWh)
Target Market
Marginal Generation
Cost in Target Market
Supply Options Transmission
Cost
Total Landed Cost of Imports
Afghanistan 3.7 Sangtuda I, Rogun I, Talimardjan I and II
0.51 2.26 – 3.43
Iran 3.6 Sangtuda I, Rogun I, Talimardjan I and II
0.54 2.29 – 3.46
Pakistan 5.6 Sangtuda I, Rogun, Talimardjan I and II, Kambarata II
0.51 2.26 – 3.75
China 3.6 Sangtuda I, Talimardjan I 0.72 2.47 – 3.16
Russia 3.0 Sangtuda I, Talimardjan I 0.55 2.30 – 2.99
Based on Crude Oil prices at US$30/barrel
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002 • Afghanistan
– very keen but needs are small – Will have payment problem, although
under World Bank encouragement willing to use Donors Trust Funds
– Best approach is to supply electricity in exchange for right-of-way to reach Iran and Pakistan
• Pakistan and Iran are real markets– Both have asked World Bank to help
create electricity trade with Central Asia– Both keen to trade with Central Asia
Electricity Exports- Strategic Considerations
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
• Market Risks are real
– Electricity is often equated with national security
– Dependence on imports for large part of need is
not politically viable
• Need to invite importers to have
shareholding in the projects
– This is one way of getting them to commit to
import
• Russian Strategic Interests and Actions
Other Strategic Considerations
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Russia and CISCurrent Energy Interests
Source: The Economist
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
A Strategy for Energy Sector Development
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
Central Asian RepublicsPower Development and Trade Strategy
Loss Reduction &Rehab. Programs
Transmission Links:North-South Project
Power Trading Capacity: Sangtuda
Lev
el o
f R
isk
Low
High
Time Frame
Near-Term1- 5 yrs
Medium -Term3 - 10 yrs
Long -Term8 - 15 yrs
Domestic & RegionalCapacity Balance:
Bishkek II & Talimardjan I
Export MarketNegotiation
South TransmissionLinks Development
Export Capacity PPP:Rogun & Talimardjan II
Russia
Afghanistan
Pakistan
IranChina?
INTERIMCG MEETING
CopenhagenApril 29, 2002
World Bank’s Central Asia Energy Program
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Regional
Loss Reduction
and Rehabilitatio
n
•Public Private Partnership (PPP) for generation and distribution rehabilitation
•Power Plant Rehab•Policy Loans•TA Credit• Distribution PPP
•Pamir Private Power•Energy Loss Reduction Project•Strategy advice
•Policy and Strategy advise•New project for efficiency improvement
Build Winter Capacity
Develop Electricity
Trade Infrastructur
e
North South Transmission Line Project
Water Energy Nexus
Develop Electricity
Trade Capacity
New capacity under PPP
Sangtuda I project as IBRD enclave
Regional Export Potential