STRATUS CONSULTING

Adaptation in the United States:Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along?

Joel B. Smith

Stratus ConsultingBoulder CO

2nd National Conference on Climate ChangeUNAM

Mexico CityOctober 18, 2011

STRATUS CONSULTING

Review Different Levels of Government Adaptation in US

• Federal government is at the top– Smallest part of

pyramid

• States are in the middle

• Localities at the bottom– Largest part of

pyramid

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Review Different Levels of Government Adaptation in US

• Start at Bottom• Adaptation at Local

Level• Adaptation at State

Level• Adaptation in

Federal Government• Selective Examples

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Local Level Adaptation

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New York City

• Strong Executive Leadership

• Involve researchers and practitioners

• Apply risk management principles– Plan for low probability

high consequence outcomes

• Identify specific and quantifiable outcomes

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NYC Organization

• Mayor Bloomberg has been driving force behind the plan– What happens when his term ends?

• Funding from Rockefeller Foundation• Convened New York Panel on Climate

Change (NYPCC)– Experts who advise on science and adaptation

• Developed sustainability plan (PlaNYC)

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NYC Water Resources

• Supplies– Protect Watershed– Invest in pipelines for

redundancy

• Water Quality– Bluebelt wetlands– Improve Combined

Sewer Overflow retention– Improve storm sewers

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Other NYC Initiatives

• Plan for disasters– Heat waves, heavy rains, storm surges, high

winds…

• Improve air quality (contributes to 6% of deaths) – Use of more fuel efficient vehicles and cleaning – Phase out dirtiest heating oils

• Plant 1 million trees

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Chicago

• Preparing for heat waves– 1995 hundreds dead– Heat watch warning

system– Cooling centers

• Protect air quality• Reduce stormwater

risks• Use green urban design

– Green infrastructure becoming more popular

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Small Cities: Keene NH and Spartanburg SC

• Keene now plans for 200-year flood to address greater variability– Hurricane Irene

• Spartanburg built on knowledge of climate change impacts to improve resilience

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Regional Cooperation: Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact

• Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Monroe

• Signed compact in 2009 to coordinate mitigation and adaptation

• Develop regional action plan• Seek federal funding for

modeling and plan preparation • Propose state policies

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Water Resources Adaptation

Leadership by Water Utilities

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Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA)

• 10 major water utilities across the US e.g.,– SF, NYC, Seattle, MWD…

• Common voice on climate change adaptation matters

• Sponsor research to support adaptation– Use of climate and water

models– Decision making

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Seattle

• Approach: Invest in actions that mitigate uncertainty and enhance flexibility and resiliency so that system managers can continue to meet their responsibilities.

• Adjust operations to test system flexibility

• Enhance information networks

• Engage in ongoing research

• Maintain portfolio of response options

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Seattle Climate Change Scenario Analysis

Source: City of Seattle

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State Government Adaptations

Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change

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State Governments

• Several have taken a leadership role

• Some have done statewide priority setting with stakeholders– Maryland, Alaska, Florida

• Others have emphasized sector adaptation

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California

• Extensive research effort on impacts and adaptation

• Statewide adaptation strategy– Coordinated DNR

• Water Resources– Dept Water Resources

• Coastal Resources– Cal Coastal Commission

• Forests– DNR

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California Adaptation Objectives

• Reduce per capita water use by 20% by 2020

• Avoid significant new building in areas vulnerable to– Erosion– Flooding– Fire

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Maryland

• Initially focused on sea level– Detailed level of planning

• Expanding planning to a number of sectors– Human health– Agriculture– Chesapeake Bay and

aquatic ecosystems

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One Key Issue: Leadership

• Florida demonstrates that attention to adaptation can change with leadership

• Gov. Christ was very committed to action on climate change– Stakeholder process to set priorities– Florida Energy and Climate Commission

• Work has for the most part been stopped by Gov. Scott and Legislature– FLECC abolished

• Demonstrates need to institutionalize adaptation

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Federal Action on Adaptation

• Adaptation planning at agency level

• Coordinating committees by sector

• National sector plans

• No integrated national strategy

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Executive Order 13514

• Signed Oct 5, 2009• Require each agency

write Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan

• Manage effects of climate change on each agency’s operation and mission

• Each agency just completed a vulnerability analysis

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Agency Adaptation Planning

• Some started under Bush Administration

• Some undertaking coordinating role

• Some supporting adaptation by stakeholders

• Some focusing on vulnerability of their facilities

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Department of Interior

• Most ambitious adaptation efforts

• Landscape Conservation Cooperatives– Coordinate activities

at ecosystem level

• Regional Science Centers– USGS

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Environmental Protection Agency Office of Water

• Strategic Plan on Adaptation– Manage impacts of climate

change on water resources

• Climate Ready Water Utilities– Support water utilities on

adaptation

• Climate Resilience and Evaluation Awareness Tool– Tool to help utilities analyze

vulnerability and adaptation

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Other Agency Efforts

• Department of Transportation– Supporting Adaptation Planning in States and Fish

and Wildlife Refuges

• Federal Emergency Management Agency– Updating flood zone maps

• Defense Department– Analyzing risks of climate change to US facilities

• NASA– Analyzing risks to its facilities

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Federal Agency Adaptations

• Some agencies focusing on their own assets and missions, e.g., Defense

• Others taking on a coordinating role, e.g., Interior

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Concluding Thoughts

Where is the US on Adaptation?

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Is the US Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along?

• We’re not The Leader in adaptation– Other countries such as the UK more organized

• Action has mainly been self-motivated– No requirement to adapt

• CA requiring adaptation by localities

• Adaptation is not required for all nor is it coordinated– For example, no minimum standards

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Is the US Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along?

• Many state and local governments have shown leadership and developed adaptation plans– Are good models

• The federal government is starting to address adaptation– In early stage

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Is the US Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along?

• Is a voluntary effort good enough?

• It allows for experimentation, which is good

• Will not create the comprehensiveness needed to address adaptation

• The glass is half full, but needs more water!

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Some Lessons Learned

• Importance of Executive leadership– Strong signal needed from the top

• Importance of central coordination– Out of office of Chief Executive or

Department/Agency/Ministry

• Vulnerability assessments needed

• Yet, most adaptations are “no regrets”

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Some Lessons Learned

• Adaptation is not solved overnight– It takes persistence– Effective governance on adaptation can take a

decade to build

• Adaptation is a process, not a single decision– Must be revisited and revisited

• Networks are critical– Need to have groups, sectors that will affect each

other work together• Agriculture and Water Resources• Involve key stakeholders

STRATUS CONSULTING

Thank you!

jsmith@stratusconsulting.com