Stream Temperatures & Climate Change: Observed Patterns & Key Uncertainties
Air, Water & Aquatics Program
Dan Isaak, Bruce Rieman, Charlie Luce, Erin Peterson1, Jay Ver Hoef2, Jason Dunham3, Brett Roper, Erik Archer, Dona Horan, Gwynne Chandler, Dave Nagel, Sharon Parkes
U.S. Forest Service1CSIRO2NOAA3U.S. Geological Survey
Metabolic Ecology and Thermal Niches
McMahon et al. 2007
Brown 2004
Temperature &metabolic rates
Isaak & Hubert 2004
In the lab… & the field
Thermal Niche
Regional Scale
Stream Scale
Channel Unit ScaleStream Distance
Ele
vati
on
Bonneau & Scarnecchia 1996
Rieman et al. 2007
Temperature Regulation – Spatial Distributions
Temperature Regulation - Life Cycle
Brannon et al. 2004
Incubation length -Chinook salmon
Spawn timing - Chinook salmon
8/4
8/14
8/24
9/3
7 9 11 13 15 17
Mean Stream Temperature (C)
Media
n R
edd C
om
ple
tion D
ate
Beaver Marsh Sulphur Big Camas Loon
Thurow, unpublished
Dion and Hughes 1994
Growth -Arctic grayling
Migration timing -sockeye salmon
July stream temp
Crozier et al. 2008
Mote et al. 2005
Warmer Air Temps
Westerling et al. 2006
Wildfire Increases
Decreasing Baseflows
Western US – Observed TrendsDeclining Snowpacks
Mote et al. 2005
(Luce and Holden 2009)
Global Trends in Stream Temperatures
Moatar and Gailhard 2006
Webb and Nobilus 2007
River Loire, France (1880 – 2003)
Danube River, Austria (1901 – 2000)
Hari et al. 2006 NAO shift
Global Trends in Stream TemperaturesStreams in Switzerland (1978 – 2004)
•22 of 25 streams show statistically significant warming
Regional Trends In Stream Temperatures
Morrison et al. 2002
Petersen and Kitchell 2001;
Fraser River - Summer
Columbia River - Summer
∆ = 0.18°C/decade
Crozier et al. 2008
Date
∆ = 0.40°C/decade
= reservoir affected (11) = free-flowing (9)
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
Regional Trends In Stream TemperaturesUSGS NWIS Monitoring Sites (1980 – 2009)
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
Seasonal Trends In Stream TemperaturesUSGS NWIS Monitoring Sites (1980 – 2009)
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
Spring Summer
Fall Winter
1980-2009 Warming TrendsMinimally Altered, Free-Flowing Sites
Application of Spatial Statistical Modelsfor Downscaling of Climate Effectson River Network Temperatures
Dan Isaak, Charlie Luce, Bruce Rieman,
Dave Nagel, Erin Peterson1, Dona Horan,
Sharon Parkes, and Gwynne Chandler
Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab
U.S. Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
Boise, ID 83702
1CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences
Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia
Stream Temperature Database14 year period (1993 – 2006)780 observations518 unique locations
Watershed CharacteristicsElevation range 900 – 3300 mFish bearing streams ~2,500 kmWatershed area = 6,900 km2
Boise River Temperature Database
Spatial Statistical Modelsfor Stream Networks
Peterson et al. 2006; Ver Hoef et al. 2006; Ver Hoef and Peterson 2010
Advantages:-flexible & valid covariance structures
by accommodating network topology-weighting by stream size-improved predictive ability & parameter
estimates relative to non spatial models
Boise River Temperature ModelsTraining on left 2007 validation on right
y = 0.68x + 3.82
4
9
14
19
4 9 14 19
Summer Mean
y = 0.55x + 7.79
5
10
15
20
25
30
5 10 15 20 25 30
y = 0.86x + 2.43
5
10
15
20
25
30
5 10 15 20 25 30
Summer Mean
MWMT MWMT
y = 0.93x + 0.830
4
9
14
19
4 9 14 19
Pre
dic
ted
(C
°)
Observed (C°)
Replace with validation
Data from 2007
r2 = 0.68; RMSE = 1.54°C
Training on left 2007 validation on right
y = 0.68x + 3.82
4
9
14
19
4 9 14 19
Summer Mean
y = 0.55x + 7.79
5
10
15
20
25
30
5 10 15 20 25 30
y = 0.86x + 2.43
5
10
15
20
25
30
5 10 15 20 25 30
Summer Mean
MWMT MWMT
y = 0.93x + 0.830
4
9
14
19
4 9 14 19
Pre
dic
ted (
C°)
Observed (C°)
Replace with validation
Data from 2007
r2 = 0.93; RMSE = 0.74°C
Spatial Multiple Regression Model
Non-spatialMultiple Regression Model
Mean Summer Stream Temp
Observed ( C)
Predic
ted (
C)
Non-spatial Stream Temp =– 0.0064*Ele (m)+ 0.0104*Rad+ 0.39*AirTemp (C)– 0.17*Flow (m3/s)
Spatial Stream Temp =– 0.0045*Ele (m)+ 0.0085*Rad+ 0.48*AirTemp (C)– 0.11*Flow (m3/s)
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
14
16
18
20
22
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Su
mm
er
Me
an
Air
(C
)
Summer Stream Flow
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Sum
mer
dis
charg
e (
m3/s
)
Summer Air Temperature
Recent Wildfires
14% burned during 93–06 study period30% burned from 92-08
1946–2006-4.8%/decade
Sum
mer
Disch
arg
e
Sum
mer
Mean
Air (C)
Environmental Trends inthe Boise River Basin
Study period
Study period
1976-2006+0.44°C/decade
Changes in Summer StreamTemperatures (1993-2006)
Temperature ( C)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Basin Scale Burned Areas
Radiat ion
Air Temperature
Stream Flow
∆0.38 C0.27°C/10y
∆0.70 C0.50°C/10y
Thermal Gain Map
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
0
4
8
12
16
7 9 11 13 15
Summer Mean (C)
Juvenile b
ull t
rout
(#/1
00 m
2)
Suitable
High Quality
0
5
10
15
20
25
7 9 11 13 15
Summer mean (C)
Ra
inb
ow
tro
ut (#
/10
0 m
2)
Suitable
High Quality
Rai
nb
ow
tro
ut
(#/1
00
m2)
Effects on Thermal Habitat?
Juve
nile
bu
ll tr
ou
t (#
/10
0 m
2)
Suitable habitat = > 9.0°CHigh-quality habitat = 11.0-14.0°C
Suitable habitat < 12.0°CHigh-quality habitat < 10.0°C
Bull Trout
Rainbow Trout
93-06 Rainbow Trout Habitat ChangesHabitat is shifting, but no net gain or loss
GainNo changeLoss
High-quality habitat = 11.0-14.0°C
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
93-06 Bull Trout Natal Habitat ChangesNet loss of habitat occurring (8%-16%/decade)
No changeLossHigh-quality habitat < 10°C
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
2006 Mean Summer Temperatures
Temperature ( C)
Additional Applications: River Network Thermal Maps
When & where areTMDL standards met?
Additional Applications: Optimizing Sampling Efforts
SE of predictions
Temperature Prediction Precision
PNF
Maps of Spatial Uncertainty
River Network Temperature Models
PNF
BNF
SNFIDPower
USGS
JDUNF
Methods online @:
= Spatial
= Non-spatial
www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/stream_temperature.shtml
Google Search “Stream Temperature”
Large regional temperaturedatabases exist (n ~ 12,000 – 20,000 summers)
Regional Temperature Model Needed
•Historical & future stream temps•Species habitat summaries•1:100,000-Scale NHD+
ICB Streams ~ 250,000 km
A Step Towards a Regional Temperature Model
•42,000 stream km•1,800 temperature sites•6,000 summer observations
NCEAS Lower Snake Study Domain
Regional Bioclimatic AssessmentsNo Stream Temperature Component
Wenger et al., Submitted.
Rieman et al. 2007
Williams et al. 2009
Olden and Naiman 2009
Summer is Not the Whole StoryFull-year Temp Data Needed
Annual Temperature Cycle
Degree Day Chart 2007 - MF Salmon
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
Julian Day
Cu
mu
lati
ve
de
gre
e d
ay
(C
)Air temp MF Lodge
Marsh Cr, 1985m
SF Salmon R, 1569m
Big Cr, 1163m
Summer ~40%of degree days
Annual Accumulationof Thermal Units
??
Julian Day
Cum
ulat
ive
deg-
day
s
Summer
Retrieve data underwater
Acquiring Full-Year Temperature DataUnderwater Epoxy Protocol
Underwater epoxy
Sensors glued to boulders
$100 = 5 years of data
Isaak & Horan 2011. NAJFM 31:xxx-xxx
Regional Temperature Sensor NetworkCurrent full-year stream temperature sites = 1375Planned 2011 deployments ~1,000 (NOAA ~500, PIBO 150, USGS 100-
200, R6/AREMP 200-300, misc. others ? )
Dynamic GoogleMap Tool for Stream Temperature Monitoring Sites
Site Information•Stream name•Data steward contact
information•Agency•Site Initiation Date
www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/stream_temperature.shtml
Google Search “Stream Temperature”
Webpage:
Daly et al. 2008
Spatial Variation in Temperature Changes
Different Climate Forcing?
Past/present glaciationHari et al. 2006
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Present Future
Str
ea
m T
em
pe
ratu
reSystematic Change?
Or Different Sensitivity?
Site-level Change?
Groundwater buffering
Geomorphology
Which Factors Determine Sensitivity?
Riparian Type?
Wildfires?
Hydrology?
Elevational Trends in Warming of Northwest US Streams 1980-2009
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
0
4
8
12
16
7 9 11 13 15
Summer Mean (C)
Juvenile b
ull t
rout
(#/1
00 m
2)
Defining/Refining Thermal Habitat CriteriaWhat is thermally suitable habitat?
Summer Mean Temp
Bul
l T
rout
Dens
ity
Suitable habitat < 12.0°CHigh-quality habitat < 10.0°C
Bull trout thermal criteria
Bear et al. 2007
Field Guesstimates
Lab Measurements
Ecological Temperature Sensor Networks
Salmon River -Chinook salmon natal & migratory habitats
Bull Trout natal habitats
Massive Sensor NetworksEcologically Relevant Climate Downscaling
Continuous Space/Time Air Temp Surface
Continuous Space/Time Stream Temp Surface
Wiens and Bachelet 2009
Better DownscalingHow will global trends affect my stream?
Integrated global-to-regional-to-landscape-to-stream systems
RCMGCM
Key Points:1) Stream temperature is a critical determinant of aquatic
species growth, survival, distribution, and reproduction.
2) Empirical evidence suggests streams are warming in response to climate change. Warming rates are greatest during the summer but will be heterogeneous due to variation in climate forcing, geomorphic factors, and human/vegetative responses.
3) Regional models are needed for accurately predicting thermal responses of streams in a consistent manner. Development of regional models is possible using existing temperature databases in conjunction with new spatial analytical techniques.
4) More full-year, long-term stream temperature monitoring is needed. Full-year data have many applications for understanding climate effects & are inexpensive to collect using modern digital sensors.
Climate Change, Aquatic
Ecosystems, and Fishes in the
Rocky Mountain West:
Implications and Alternatives for ManagementBruce E. Rieman and Daniel J. Isaak
Boise Aquatic Sciences Laboratory
Air, Water, and Aquatic Environments
Rocky Mountain Research Station
322 E. Front St., Suite 401
Boise, ID 83706
1) What is changing in the climate and related physical processes that may influence aquatic species and their habitats?
2) What are the implications for fish populations, aquatic communities and related conservation values?
3) What can we do about it?
Three Questions:
SynthesisDocument
Key ReferencesIsaak, D.J., C. Luce, B.E. Rieman, D. Nagel, E. Peterson, D. Horan, S. Parkes, and G. Chandler. 2010.
Effects of climate change and recent wildfires on stream temperature and thermal habitats for two salmonids in a mountain river network. Ecological Applications 20:1350-1371.
Isaak, D.J., and D.L. Horan. 2011. An assessment of underwater epoxies for permanently installing temperature sensors in mountain streams. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 31:000-000.
Isaak, D.J.; Horan, D.; Wollrab, S. 2010. A simple method using underwater epoxy to permanently install temperature sensors in mountain streams. Visual Guide Available @: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/stream_temperature.shtml/
Isaak, D.J., S. Wollrab, D.L. Horan, and G. Chandler. In Review. Trends in seasonal and ecologically relevant temperature attributes of streams and rivers in the northwest U.S. associated with anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change.
Peterson, E.E., and J.M. Ver Hoef. 2010. A mixed-model moving-average approach to geostatisticalmodeling in stream networks. Ecology 91:644-651.
Rieman, B. E., D. Isaak, S. Adams, D. Horan, D., Nagel, and C. Luce. 2007. Anticipated climate warming effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the Interior Columbia River basin. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 136:1552-1565.
Rieman, B. E., and D. J. Isaak. 2010. Climate change, aquatic ecosystems and fishes in the Rocky Mountain West: implications and alternatives for management. General Technical Report GTR-RMRS-250. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Ver Hoef, J.M., and E.E. Peterson. 2010. A moving average approach for spatial statistical models of stream networks. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:6-18.
Wenger, S. J., D. J. Isaak, J. B. Dunham, K. D. Fausch, C. H. Luce, H. M. Neville, B. E. Rieman, M. K. Young, D. E. Nagel, D. L. Horan, and G. L. Chandler. In Press. Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the Interior Columbia Basin. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.
Wenger, S. J.; C.H. Luce, A.F. Hamlet, D.J. Isaak, H.M. Neville. 2010. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2009WR008839. Data for western US streams available @:http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/modeled_stream_flow_metrics.shtml
Most publications available through: www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/index.shtml orwww.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/awae_home.shtml
National Survey Finds Public Concern About Global Warming Drops
Sharply January 29, 2010 , CBB
Don’t Stop Believing
websites: www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/index.shtml www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/awae_home.shtml
US Forest ServiceRocky Mountain Research StationAir, Water, and Aquatics ProgramBoise Aquatic Sciences Lab
