StreetEasy is pleased to present our Q4 2008 Quarterly Report on the Manhattan residential market. While the bulk of the report is based on approximately 2,900 recorded sales for this quarter, our Market Snapshot report will give you the most real-time view of how the real estate market is responding to the financial fallout of September 2008 by looking at inventory, price cuts and in-contract data.
Resale closing numbers provide a more timely view of the market than new development numbers since new developments often go into contract as much as 24 months before closing. Days on Market (DoM) data is another important market indicator in the normally fast-paced Manhattan real estate market. With listings across all brokerages, StreetEasy has the most comprehensive view of the market. We seek to continually improve this report and provide data that will be meaningful and useful to you. Please keep sending your suggestions to [email protected].
Significant findings in Q4 2008
MEDIAN CLOSING PRICES DROP. Overall, median prices decreased slightly by 0.1% to $849,000. However, this figure includes new development closing prices which reflect the market at the time these units went into contract, which, again, could have been as much as 24 months ago. While average closing sales prices increased slightly for condo and co-op resales since last quarter, median sales prices actually dropped. Medians are a more reliable statistic as they tend not to be skewed by a handful of outliers.
• Condo resale median sale prices dropped by 9.5% to $950K since last quarter but increased 5.6% since last year. Average sales prices increased by 2.6%, to $1.61M since last quarter but a 22.6% increase since last year.
• Co-op resale median prices declined by 5.2% since last quarter, and by 2.4% since last year. Co-op resale average prices increased by 1.4% to $1.06M since last quarter and by 4.4% since last year.
• New Developments average sales price increased by 24.8% since last quarter to $1.795M but increased by only 0.4% since last year. Median sales price also increased by 24% since last quarter, and by 18% since last year. Our raw data shows that the drop in the number of new development closings, coupled with fewer closings in the low-end of the market, drove average and median prices upward.
VOLUME OF SALES DROPS DRASTICALLY. The number of closings has decreased by 34%, from the 4,300 closings of last quarter, to approximately 2,900. Looking at the closings data for 2005, 2006 and 2007, the fourth quarter is a less active time in the Manhattan real estate market primarily due to the holiday season, as well as being pre-bonus season. From Q3 to Q4, the number of closings dropped 22.3% in 2005, 6.9% in 2006, and 28.3% in 2007. This year’s more drastic 34% drop in activity may be attributed to the market’s reaction to the economic and political events of the last quarter. Co-op resales have decreased by 29.4% since last quarter, while condo resales plummeted by 39.9% and new developments dropped by 37.4%. New development closings made up 40% of the closings, while co-op resales made up 43% of all closings this quarter.
INVENTORY SHOOTS UP. Inventory of available units in Manhattan continued to climb throughout this quarter, staying above 9,000, and peaking above 10,000 in the first two weeks of December. According to our listing database, an average of 338 new listings came onto market every week in this quarter, an increase of 19% since last quarter where we saw an average of 299 new listings per week.
FEWER BROKEN CONTRACTS AND DECREASE IN NEW CONTRACTS. This quarter, there were 141 broken contracts, a 52% decrease compared to last quarter’s number of 291. Additionally, there was a 37% decrease in the number of listings (1,233) that have entered into contract compared to last quarter’s number of 1,973 listings.
MORE & STEEPER PRICE CUTS. This quarter, there were over 1,900 price cuts in available listings for condos, a 34.1% increase since last quarter but more than 2.5 times the number of cuts since last year. Co-ops had a 42.3% increase in the number of price cuts, to just over 2,300 listings. The average cut this quarter for condos was 8.4%, while the average cut for co-ops was 8.2%.
TIME ON MARKET DECREASES FOR CONDOS. The average time on market for condo listings decreased by 5.1% since last quarter, while co-ops sat on the market for 5.8% longer than last quarter. This quarter, condo resales stayed on the market for an average of 105 days, while co-op resales were on the market for an average of 102 days.
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Inventory reached over 9,000 available listings (unique, with verified addresses) in early October. By the beginning of December, inventory in Manhattan had risen to over 10,000. Last quarter, an average of 299 new listings were added every week. This quarter, an average of 369 have been added every week. Additionally, an average of 97 listings have been absorbed every week.
Absorbed listings refer to listings that have either entered into contract or have been taken off the market.
Upper West Side -8.5% 26.0% 43.9% -8.1% 18.0% 24.3%
Upper East Side -7.8% 26.3% 25.9% -8.4% 24.3% 23.0%
Upper Manhattan -9.8% 7.9% 56.2% -7.7% 7.7% 38.4%
% Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since
There were 4,300 listings (approximately 33% of all available listings) that had price cuts this quarter with the most number of cuts in the Downtown, and Midtown markets. Condos had 34.1% more price cuts since last quarter while co-ops had 42.3% more price cuts. Compared to this quarter last year, the sheer number of cuts increased by more than 1.5 times. Condos had an average discount of -8.4% and co-ops had a similar average cut of -8.2%.
This quarter, there were only 133 listings with price increases, 74% fewer than last quarter. Condos had a 45.8% decline in the number of increases. Similarly, co-op listings with price increases decreased by 64.4% since last quarter. Condo listings had an average increase 5.6% while co-op listings had an average increase of 4.7% this quarter.
This quarter, there was a 37% decrease in the number of listings that entered into contract, compared to last quarter of 1,973 listings. Conversely, there were a total of 139 broken contracts this quarter, a 54% drop from last quarter, which had 291 broken contracts. (Please note that broken contracts do not necessarily mean buyers have walked away from deposits. Listings previously in contract that are now available may be due to co-op board rejections, as well as developers allowing buyers out of their contracts.)
More than $10,000,000 7 -63.2% -72.0% 6 -14.3% 200.0% 9 123.3% 12.5%
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
Overall, median prices decreased slightly by 0.1% to $849,000. However, this figure includes new development closing prices which reflect the market at the time these units went into contract, which, again, could have been as much as 24 months ago. Condo resales median price dropped by 9.5% and co-op resales median price dropped by 5.2% since last quarter. Average sales prices increased by 2.6% for condo resales and 1.4% for co-op resales since last quarter. The bulk of closings occurred in new developments (40%) and coop resales (42.8%). 59% of closings were under $1M.
Number of Sales Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2007
Number of Sales 65 -44.4% -17.7% 81 -40.0% -21.4%
Downtown 21 -57.1% -40.0% 8 -74.2% -57.9%
Midtown 14 -46.2% -22.2% 10 0.0% -23.1%
Upper West Side 18 0.0% 63.6% 10 -69.7% -47.4%
Upper East Side 11 -42.1% -26.7% 52 -11.9% 0.0%
Upper Manhattan 1 n/a n/a 1 0.0% n/a
% Change Since % Change Since
The luxury market is defined as the top 10% condo and co-op sales, in terms of price. This quarter, the luxury market was comprised of sales at $2.425M and above, a decrease from last quarter’s 90th percentile price of $3.1M. Average price had an increase of 22.7% since last quarter and 18.5% since the prior year. Similarly, median price increased by 9.9% since last quarter and by 4.2% since last year. The Upper East Side sector had the highest average and median prices out of all the major sectors. Co-op resales made up 56% of closings in the luxury resale market.
Upper West Side $6,096,100 -10.1% -21.1% $6,002,500 34.9% -1.5%
Upper East Side $5,953,832 -53.5% -9.1% $6,200,000 -43.6% 10.7%
Upper Manhattan n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
% Change Since % Change Since
New Devs
Number of Sales Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2007
Number of Sales 114 34.1% -13.6%
Downtown 52 108.0% 188.9%
Midtown 17 -15.0% -57.5%
Upper West Side 11 -56.0% -78.0%
Upper East Side 34 142.9% 47.8%
Upper Manhattan 0 n/a -100.0%
% Change Since
The 90th percentile price among new developments was $3.255M. Average price had declined 27.1% and median price dropped 6.2% since last quarter. The Upper West Side sector had the highest average, while the Upper East Side had the highest median price. The number of sales above $3.255M increased by 34.1% since last quarter, but declined by 13.6% since last year.
Overall, townhouses median sales prices had significant gains since last quarter and last year. While overall median price increased by 49.1%, townhouse median prices across the major markets decreased. Looking at the raw closings data, this is explained by the fact that there were much fewer townhouse closings this quarter, coupled with fewer townhouse closings in the low end of the market, which drove the median price upwards. However, keep in mind that two or three very expensive closings can skew statistics especially since the total number of townhouse closings is less than 30. Volume of townhouse sales in Manhattan overall has declined by 58.2% since last quarter and by 57.6% since last year.
More than $10,000,000 3 0.0% n/a 1 n/a 0.0% 0 n/a n/a
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
The Downtown market experienced a median price decrease of 0.3% to $999K since last quarter but a 10.7% gain in average price. Condo resales median prices dropped by 16.5% since last quarter, and by 5.8% since last year. Co-op resales median sales price dropped slightly by 1.9% and average price declined by 10.9% since last quarter. The number of sales has declined drastically for new developments (39.6%), condo resales (44.7%), and co-op resales (32.3%) since last quarter. New developments made up 55% of the closings this quarter while condos made up 15% and coops made up 30%.
More than $10,000,000 1 -75.0% -85.7% 0 -100.0% n/a 1 n/a -50.0%
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
On the whole, the Midtown market saw a 5.9% increase in median price to $895K, mostly driven by new development closings. Overall average sales price declined by 3.9% to $1.26M since last quarter. Condo resales median price declined by 2.1% while co-op resales median price dropped by 6% since last quarter. Additionally, condo resales are spending 15.1% less time on the market than last quarter, and 3.9% less time on market since last year, while co-op resales are spending 9.1% more time on market since last quarter.
More than $10,000,000 3 -62.5% -40.0% 1 0.0% 0.0% 8 98.5% 33.3%
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
The Upper East Side made significant gains of 22% in overall median price, mostly driven by new development closings at Manhattan House, 255 East 74th Street, Miraval Living and at the Laurel. Median price for condo resales decreased by 11.4% since last quarter, while co-op resales average price decreased slightly by 0.3% since last quarter. Time on market for condo resales and new developments have both declined by 4.9% while co-op resales have increased by 15.5% since last quarter. The number of new development closings doubled to 144 since last quarter while the number of sales for condo resales declined by 43.1% and co-op resales by 31.5%.
More than $10,000,000 0 -100.0% -100.0% 4 33.3% n/a 0 n/a n/a
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
Overall median price for the Upper West Side decreased by 14.4% since last quarter. Condo resales median price declined by 3.5% and co-op resale median price dropped by 14% since last quarter. The significant gains in average and median prices for new development closings can be attributed to 8 closings at 15 CPW and 12 closings at 200 West End Avenue that ranged from $2-9M. Additionally, time on market continues to increase for condo and co-op resales since last quarter while new developments spent 22% less time on market than last quarter.
More than $10,000,000 0 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
% Change Since % Change Since % Change Since
Upper Manhattan was the only major market that had median price gains among condo resales (13.1%) and co-op resales (9%) since last quarter. Overall average sales price in Upper Manhattan declined by 3.5% but condo resales average price increased by 9.5% and co-op resales average price increased by 8.4% since last quarter. New developments in Upper Manhattan had lower average and median sales prices than condo resales. Additionally, they spent an average of 178 days on the market while condo resale units spent an average of 110 days on the market. New developments also made up 48% of the closings this quarter, almost all of which (except for 4 closings) were priced under $500K.
