STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS:
THE ROLE OF PHOSPHATE ROCK MINING & SUPPLY SECURITY FOR IMPORT-DEPENDENT COUNTRIES
Bernhard Geissler, Gerald Steiner, Ludwig Herman, & Michael Mew
contact:[email protected]
UNECE
Resource Management Week 2019
Genève, 30th of April 2019
TD LAB FOR SUSTAINABLE MINERAL RESOURCES
2Geissler et al. 2019
STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS
Scientific Co-Lead Co-Leader Practice
Gerald Steiner(Danube University /CSH Vienna)
Michael C. Mew(CRU International)
Bernhard Geissler(Danube University)
Ludwig Hermann(ESPP and PromanConsulting)
Roland W. Scholz(Danube University / formerly ETH Zürich)
Michael Obersteiner(IIASA)
www.donau-uni.ac.at/smr-tdlab
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART 1: The Extended P Supply Chain
PART 2: Supply Security for Importing Countries
PART 3: Circular Economy of P
PART 4: Best Practice Cases
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PART 1: THE EXTENDED P SUPPLY CHAIN
DYNAMIC NATURE OF RESOURCES
5
Geopotentialreserves and resources
of the future, unknown
at present
Resourcescurrently not
(economically) feasible
Reserves(economically)
feasible
dynamic
boundaries
virtual flow of stocks due to re-categorization
increasing (geological)
assurance
inc
rea
sin
g
ec
on
om
ic
(su
sta
ina
ble
)
fea
sib
ility
Geissler et al. (2019b) based on Wellmer (2008) / Wellmer and Scholz (2017) / Tilton and Lagos (2007)
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EXTENDED PHOSPHORUS SUPPLY CHAIN (EPSC)
6
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beneficiationexploration excavation processing use
soil erosion (mostlyon cropped soils) surface water run-off(mostly on grassland)food waste overfertilization (excess plant uptake of P)
PRE-MINING MINING POST-MINING
mining ratio beneficiation rate
agricultural use• fertilizer (MAP, DAP, TSP)• animal feednon-agricultural use• food additives, industrial use
quantities partly known quantities known
rock material below cut-off grade (economic profit + resource loss) & zero grade waste (no loss)==> in solid and effluent forms (e.g., clay)
drill tests, drill core analysis + further exploration methods of:
brownfield areas • on mine sites• close to known depotsgreenfield areas• unexplored territory• explored territory for
another commodity
reserves @ grade
ore @ grade concentrate @ grade
primarilyfertilizers
screening• washingseparation• grindingfurther treatment• flotation• chemical treatment
wet chemical processing to fertilizer (with phosphoric acid as major intermediate product)thermal processing toe.g., elemental P, high-purity acid, building blocks for industrial chemicals
quantities knownquantities mainly unknown
touched (above cut-off grade: economic + resource loss) &untouched (below cut-off grade: economic profit + resource loss)==> possibility of stockpiling for later processing (no loss, besides weathering over time)
open-pit (i.e. surface, open-cast) mining• draglines• bulldozers, trucks, pit-cars• blastingunderground mining• conventional
room mining• continuous mining transport
on-site / off-site e.g.,rail, truck, conveyor systems
transporton-site / off-site e.g.,rail, slurry pipelines, truck
transport e.g.,rail, trucks, plane, ship
planning• scheduling• economics• environment• legislative• social
primary physical mining efficiency (i.e., primary recovery rate)
secondary recovery rate
quantities partly known
at reserve, resource or geopotential levels(not considerable as losses)
use efficiencyexploration efficiency
URR
low grade P-material (additional: heavy metals, uranium and rare earth elements)
PH
ASE
SA
CT
IVIT
IES
LOSS
ES, W
AST
E +
OV
ERLO
OK
EDO
PP
OR
TUN
ITIE
S
INTE
R-
MED
IATE
SEF
FIC
IEN
CY
based on Steiner et al. (2015)
DATA RELATED ISSUES
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$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
PR
pro
du
ctio
n [
mill
ion
to
ns]
USGS [DS140 historic series, reported in metric tons]
BGS [annual yearbooks converted to metric tons, since 1970 metric tons]
USGS [annual yearbooks converted to metric tons]
IFA [metric tonnes]
Price Series [USD, 1950$ index]
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015PR
pro
du
ctio
n [
mill
ion
to
ns]
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015PR
pro
du
ctio
n [
mill
ion
to
ns]
BGS USGS IFA
a)
b)
Long term PR production series, by data source Recent PR production by data source
Geissler et al. (2018a)Geissler et al. (2018a)
wo
rld
wo
rld
ex
Ch
ina
PART 2: SUPPLY SECURITY FOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES
PR MARKETS – A GLOBAL PICTURE
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Geissler et al. (2018) Van Kauwenbergh et al. (2013)
Global PR production in 2015 PR deposits by type of origin
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
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USA
Brazil
Russia
ChinaMorocco
South Africa
Jordan
36%
12%
2%
35%
14%6%
3% 3%
3% 1%
19% 15%
4% 4%
PR-M % Share of Global Production Capacity 2013
69%
54%
61%
66%
83%
64%
84%
83%
64%
74%
69%
69%
72% 74%
X %X%PR-M % Share of Global Production Capacity 1983
Benefication Ratio 1983 Benefication Ratio 2013
72%
61%
Others20% 23%
Major Producer
Steiner and Geissler (2016)
Minor Producer
CURRENT RESERVE SITUATION
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
GT
year
s
Global phosphate rock reserve-to-production and reserve base-to-production ratios
RPR RBPR Reserves Reserve-base
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
year
s
Country-based phosphate rock reserve-to-production and reserve base-to-production ratios
US (RPR) China (RPR) Jordan (RPR) Morocco (RPR)
Russia (RPR) US (RBPR) China (RBPR) Jordan (RBPR)
Morocco (RBPR) Russia (RBPR)
Geissler et al. (2019b)compiled from USGS data Geissler et al. (2019b)compiled from USGS data
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MARKET CONCENTRATIONS 1/3
12
Geissler et al. (2019b)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
HH
I
HHI developments of reserves and reserve-base
HHI reserves HHI reserve-base
STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS
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MARKET CONCENTRATIONS 2/3
13
Geissler et al. (2019b)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
HH
I
Glo
bal
PR
co
nsu
mp
tio
n [
mill
ion
met
ric
ton
s]
Global PR volumes and corresponding HHIs based on BGS/ITC data
Total Production Total Imports Total ExportsHHI Production HHI Imports HHI Exports
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MARKET CONCENTRATIONS 3/3
14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
HH
I
Glo
bal
vo
lum
e [m
illio
n m
etri
c to
ns
of
pro
du
ct]
Global PA volumes and corresponding HHIs based on Fertecon/CRU data
Total Production Total Imports Total Exports
HHI Production HHI Imports HHI Exports
Geissler et al. (2019b)Geissler et al. (2019b)
STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
HH
I
Glo
bal
vo
lum
e [m
illio
n m
etri
c to
ns
of
pro
du
ct]
Global DAP volumes and corresponding HHIs (country-based) on Fertecon/CRU data
Total Production DAP Total Imports DAP Total Exports DAP
HHI Production DAP HHI Imports DAP HHI Exports DAP
PART 3: CIRCULAR ECONOMY OF P
MACRO PERSPECTIVE: PHOSPHATE ROCK MINING – INNOVATION – NEXUS
16
Social
Ecological Economic
inter- and intragenerational fairness
within global boundaries shareholder responsibility
waste utilization
improving P2O5
recovery
sustainableinnovation
recovery of by-products
Geissler et al. (2019b)
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MICRO PERSPECTIVE: COST STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN 1/2
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0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Hunnan Average Karatau
shar
e o
f p
rod
uct
ion
co
st e
lem
ents
[%
]
Other Consumables Energy Labor
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Igneous Sedimentary
shar
e o
f p
rod
uct
ion
co
st e
lem
ents
[%
]
Other Consumables Energy Labor
Geissler et al. (2019a) based on CRU data
Global comparison Weighted average: Igneous vs. Sedimentary
Geissler et al. (2019a) based on CRU data
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MICRO PERSPECTIVE: COST STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN 2/2
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
OCP Florida Jordan China/Yunnan
sha
re o
f p
rod
uc
tio
n c
ost
ele
me
nts
[%
]
Other Consumables Energy Labor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Kola U/g Kola O/pit S Africa Tapira Brazil
sha
re o
f p
rod
uc
tio
n c
ost
ele
me
nts
[%
]
Other Consumables Energy Labor
Geissler et al. (2019a) based on CRU data
Sedimentary Deposits Igneous Deposits
Geissler et al. (2019a) based on CRU data
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TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY
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beneficiationexploration
Agricultural Phosphorus Use
Circle
recycling
processing
use
excavation
sustainable mine planning strategies
recovery of by-products e.g.,- uranium- rare earth elements
waste utilization of high-volume by-products(e.g., phosphogypsum)
improvement of P2O5recovery- tailings,
overburden, clay, etc.
- (improved) flotation processes
- ….
runoff to aquatic systempolicy on
recycled fertilizer
stock in soils
losses from recovery
?
Geissler et al. (2018b)
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PART 4: BEST PRACTICE CASES
JDC’S IMPROVED HARD PROCESS (IHP)
21
Blake (2017)
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KHOURIBGA-JORF LASFAR PIPELINE
22
based on OCP S.A. (2017)
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Jorf Lasfar Hub
Head Station
Settat Khouribga
El JadidaTerminal Station
primary pipeline: 187 km
secondary pipelines: 48 km
STRIVING TOWARD A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR PHOSPHORUS: THE ROLE OF PHOSPHATE
ROCK MINING
Bernhard Geissler, Gerald Steiner, Ludwig Herman, & Michael Mew
contact:[email protected]
UNECE
Resource Management Week 2019
Genève, 30th of April 2019
REFERENCES
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• Geissler, B., Mew, M.C., Weber, O., Steiner, G., 2015. Efficiency performance of the world’s leading corporations in phosphate rock mining. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 105, 246–258.
• Geissler, B., Steiner, G., Mew, M.C., 2018a. Clearing the fog on phosphate rock data – Uncertainties, fuzziness, and misunderstandings. Science of The Total Environment 642, 250–263.
• Geissler, B., Hermann, L., Mew, M.C., Steiner, G., 2018b. Striving Toward a Circular Economy for Phosphorus: The Role of Phosphate Rock Mining. Minerals 8, 1087.
• Geissler, B., Mew, M. C., Matschullat, J., & Steiner, G. (2019a). Innovation potential along the phosphorus supply chain: A micro and macro perspective. Manuscript soon to be Submitted for Publication.
• Geissler, B., Steiner, G., & Mew, M. C. (2019b). Phosphate supply security for importing countries: Developments and the current situation. Manuscript Submitted for Publication.
• Tilton, J.E., Lagos, G., 2007. Assessing the long-run availability of copper. Resources Policy 32, 19–23.
• Reichl, C., Schatz, M., 2018. World Miningdata 2018. Austrian Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism, Vienna.
• Mew, M.C., Steiner, G., Geissler, B., 2018. Phosphorus Supply Chain—Scientific, Technical, and Economic Foundations: A Transdisciplinary Orientation. Sustainability 10, 1087.
• OCP S.A. (2017). The Slurry Pipeline Revolution.
• Steiner, G., Geissler, B., Watson, I., Mew, M.C., 2015. Efficiency developments in phosphate rock mining over the last three decades. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 105, 235–245.
• Steiner, G., Geissler B., 2016. Developments and Efficiency Consideration in PR mining: Past – Present – Future. 5th Sustainable Phosphorus Summit. Kunming, China.
• Van Kauwenbergh, S., Steward, M., Mikkelsen, R., 2013. World Reserves of Phosphate Rock a Dynamic and Unfolding Story. Better Crops 97, 18–20.
• Wellmer, F.-W., 2008. Reserves and resources of the geosphere, terms so often misunderstood. Is the life index of reserves of natural resources a guide to the future?. Zeitschriftder Deutschen Gesellschaft für Geowissenschaften 159, 575–590.
• Wellmer, F.-W., Scholz, R.W., 2017a. Putting Phosphorus First: The Need to Know and Right to Know Call for a Revised Hierarchy of Natural Resources. Resources 6, 20.
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