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Does the exchange rate regime impact the number of students who choose to go abroad for university?
Question
● International students and a developing economy
● The role of exchange rate regimes in a developing economy
Why these variables?
● David Singer (2010)● Remittances and exchange rate regimes
● Beine, Noel, & Ragot (2014)● International student mobility
● Nicita (2013)● International trade and exchange rate regimes
Literature
● Fixed (including traditional peg and currency board)● Crawling peg or band● Managed floating● Free floating● Free falling● Dual market
(based on Reinhart and Rogoff’s classification)
Types of Exchange Rate Regimes
● Number of Outbound Tertiary Students (UNESCO 2014)
● Exchange Rate Regime and other data (Rogoff & Reinhart 2010)
● Mean X: most regimes are a crawling peg or band● 1.9
● Mean Y: average students studying abroad● 9,719
Methodology
● Years: 1999-2007
● Number of Countries: 177
● Number of Country-Year Observations: 1,593
Methodology Cont.
rrcoarse=1 rrcoarse=2 rrcoarse=3 rrcoarse=4 rrcoarse=5 rrcoarse=6n=504 n=449 n=194 n=39 n=30 n=23
Std. Dev.=40.98765
Std. Dev.=18.06112
Std. Dev.=19.14948
Std. Dev.=14.80739
Std. Dev.=12.84519
Std. Dev.=3.408907
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
10.8510.14
15.21
9.528.84
4.40
Number of Outbound Students by Exchange Rate Regime
Exchange Rate Regime(rrcoarse classification)
Num
ber
of O
utbo
und
Ter
tiar
y St
uden
ts (t
hous
ands
)
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
l.outbound 1.104106(0)
1.086759(0)
1.09105(0)
1.077737(0)
rrcoarse -335.722(0.01693)
-678.293(0.007101)
-304.141(0.052843)
-461.866(0.022286)
gdppc_ppp -0.06204(0.018409)
-0.0745(0.092266)
-0.05222(0.091099)
-0.03108(0.107379)
remitpgdp 3.544398(0.675961)
29.7662(0.809534)
2.652465(0.754546)
remit_usd 1.05E-07(0.036453)
7.64E-08(0.275642)
1.36E-07(0.0191)
rem_lag -2.66477(0.786039)
-74.4585(0.558675)
-2.15632(0.820637)
kaopen_lag 6.280963(0.945856)
-21.5797(0.893735)
-55.2557(0.605674)
trade_pgdp -3.87783(0.24953)
-4.48025(0.396365)
-4.51047(0.24854)
grads -0.00011(0.906796)
0.000312(0.699682)
_cons 955.519(0.036153)
2319.89(0.010042)
1026.962(0.04797)
1073.238(0.039799)
Observations
842 354 842 401
Number of Countries
75 120 86
Regression Results
Dependent Variable Outbound Students
This table depicts the result of four of the eleven regression analyses conducted.
• Consistently negative correlation
• Varying statistical significance
• Effect of exchange rate regime is consistent, but not robust.
Conclusion
• Under-reporting• Missing control variable data
• Misaligned timeframes• New variable
• Unequal development
• Future Study• Filling data gaps
Discussion