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Digital Media Map 2012 Media Disruption: Endless Market Opportunities 2 0 1 4 THE DAILY LIFE OF TOMORROW’S CONSUMER Sara Öhrvall @saraohrvall
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Digital Media Map 2012
Media Disruption: Endless Market Opportunities
2 0 1 4
THE DAILY LIFE OF TOMORROW’S CONSUMER
Sara Öhrvall @saraohrvall
!
1. NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIOR !
2. LIFE IN THE MODERN CITY !
3. DIGITAL COMMERCE !
4. DAILY NEEDS !
!
!
1.NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIOR !
2. LIFE IN THE MODERN CITY !
3. DIGITAL COMMERCE !
4. DAILY NEEDS !
!
2008
NÄSTA STEG: VAR ÄR DEN DIGITALA
MEDIEKONSUMENTEN PÅ VÄG?
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Global Mobile App Downloads (Millions)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
APPMANIA
BY THE NUMBERS: INFORMATION OVERLOAD
Number of times the average user checks his or her phone per day
150
OPINIONS ARE ACTIONSWriting that weds reporting about issues with
directives for making a difference.
BY THE NUMBERS: SOCIAL ACTION
OPINIONS ARE ACTIONS Case: Causes
!
1.NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIOR !
2. LIFE IN THE MODERN CITY !
3. DIGITAL COMMERCE !
4. DAILY NEEDS !
!
A CLOSER CITY LIFE CHANGES IN THE WAY WE LIVE
BY 2050, THE HUMAN POPULATIONS WILL HAVE REACHED 9 BILLION PEOPLE WITH 75% OF THE WORLD’S INHABITANTS LIVING IN CITIES
!!•LESS MOVEMENT, LESS TRANSPORT
•As the cities grow, we no longer want to move across the city area. When transport takes longer than 1 hr/day, people start to look for nearby solutions. (Federal Highway Administration)
!•LESS INTEREST IN CARS
•Total number of kilometers driven by cars globally has decreased every year since 2007, we are less interested in cars and fewer people take a drivers license. Millennials don’t want to own cars (OECD).
!• CASE: The Great City in Chengdu, China will attract 80 000 new inhabitants to a car free city center and in Masdar, United Arab Emirates, 50 000 people will live CO2-neutral without cars. !!!
•(http://vimeo.com/90111478)
MOBILE BUSINESS TO EVOLVE !
•From food trucks to any-product-trucks !
•Pop-up stores, usually reserved for apparel retailers, will diversify as well. !• CASE: Republic Spaces, a marketplace that helps retailers rent out their extra space to emerging designers !• CASE: Boxpark Shoreditch, the worlds first cargotechture container shopping mall opened in 2011 !•CASE: The Movable Movie Theatre by Yasuke Yamamoto's theater is able to fit in to a shipping truck, then fold out like a Russian doll
THANKS TO MOBILE POSITIONING SYSTEMS AND CLOUD SERVICES, PEOPLE DO BUSINESS IN POP-UP AND ON-THE-GO STORES FROM ANYWHERE
POP-UP SERVICES
CHANGES IN THE WAY WE LIVE
SERVICES, PUBLIC & PRIVATE, OUTSOURCED TO MICRO SPACES CLOSE TO CITIZENS’ DAILY FLOW !
• We will see more of urban intervention: reclaimed parking spaces, abandoned rail tracks and roofs and citizen involvement: micro spaces given to citizens to innovate & co-create for a better living environment
! CASE: The little free library, libraries available where people are - as at bus stops and in public parks CASE: Living Innovation Zones (San Francisco). Areas where the city encourage citizens to innovate CASE: Urban farming: The number of green roofs in the US grew by more than 35% last year. (Green Roofs for Healthy Cities)
IN OVER-POPULATED CITIES, PEOPLE WILL LIVE IN SMALLER SPACES - EVERY OUTDOOR SPACE WILL BE NEEDED TO IMPROVE LIFE QUALITY: THE LIVING ROOM MOVES OUT IN THE STREET
MICRO SPACES
CHANGES IN THE WAY WE LIVE
SMART MOBILITY
CHANGES IN THE WAY WE MOVE STUFF AROUND
TRANSPORT WILL BE SMARTER, AND THERE IS LESS NEED FOR TRANSPORT DUE TO E-COMMERCE & DRONE DELIVERIES !
• The flying car era will really begin around 2015 with flying drones, used by FedEx, UPS, Pizza Hut, Safeway. !
• Drones will also enable homes to be taken off the grid with delivery of water and electricity (changing out batteries for the home), trash and sewage pickup. (DaVinciInstitute) !•Driverless cars. Estimates by some leading experts state that traffic flow could improve by as much as 40-50% just by using driverless technology. That means less idling at the traffic lights, and less pollution. (BBC) !!!
•CASE: Hiriko CityCar, a foldable, electric, and shareable two-passenger vehicles designed for on-demand use. The CityCar is on the verge of being commercially available in Europe by MIT industrial sponsors this year.
MOBILITY EFFICIENCY WILL BE REACHED WITH SMART TRAFFIC LIGHTS, LIVE NAVIGATION APPS, BIKE HIGHWAYS AND MULTI-MODAL TRANSIT HUBS
WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY WILL COLLECT INDIVIDUAL DATA. IF AGGREGATED, IT WILL INFORM CITIZENS USING REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE TO IMPROVE COMMUNITIES
CITIZEN SENSOR SYSTEMS
!MODERN CITIES WILL HAVE VISUALIZED DATA FEEDBACK SYSTEMS
• Using simple technology and infrastructure.
• Crowdsourcing systems and just-in-time notifications will help inform of possible improvements using data feedback.
CASE: Copenhagen wheels aggregates real-time air pollution data linked to numer of kilometers bikes
CASE: London Eye light installation to report on the mood in Great Britain surrounding the 2012 Olympics (MIT)
CASE: Bjarke Ingels envisioned how bad citizen recycling results in a 30 meter smoke puff ring, visible across the city, from Copenhagen waste-to-energy plant.
CASE: Openspending - shows citizens how their taxes are spent (UK)
CHANGES IN THE WAY WE LIVE
!
1. NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIOR !
2. LIFE IN THE MODERN CITY !
3. DIGITAL COMMERCE !
4. DAILY NEEDS !
!
RETAIL STRUCTURE CHANGING Percent of retail sales attributable to online in selected categories (US)
Estimates on the share of stores that might close or be repurposed in coming decades range from 15 to 50%.
“People no longer want cities in which no one lives but everyone consumes”
SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN, ICSC 2014
BIG BOX RETAILING CLOSING
SOURCE: BI INTELLIGENCE
OFFLINE PLAYERS LOSING MARKET SHARES Amazon vs Top Retailers (global)
SOURCE: BI INTELLIGENCE40% of shoppers are willing to purchase any type of product from Amazon
(Walker Sands’ 2014 Future of Retail Study)
DAILY NEEDS
CONSUMER DRIVERS NEW BUSINESS CONCEPTS
BACKGROUND Life in the modern city
SPEED !JOINING IN (THE LOCAL COMMUNITY) !COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION !MASTERING KNOWLEDGE !QUANTIFIED SELF
DELIVERY FACTORIES !PROXIMITY SERVICES !ACCESS INSTEAD OF OWNERSHIP !SKILL-BASED LEARNING !DATA-BASED SERVICES
CONSUMER DRIVER: SPEED CONCEPT: DELIVERY FACTORIES
SPEED
!• As time is becoming the modern urban consumers scarcest resource - anything that is performing faster and easier, and saves time, will be in demand. !
• The amount of time spent in physical stores has decreased, whereas the total value of retailed goods has not. (US, Bloomberg) !• In the market, there is a an explosion of ready-to-cook, ready-to-use, food subscriptions and personal curator services !• 52% of consumers would be more likely to shop at a retailer offering in-store navigation on a mobile device, and 59% would be more likely to shop at a store offering self-checkout via a mobile device (Walker Sands’ 2014 Future of Retail Study)
!Our view of time has changed — and so has our tolerance for waiting
Not a prioritized shopping activity
DELIVERY FACTORIES
CONSUMER DRIVER: SPEED CONCEPT: DELIVERY FACTORIES
Do you reserve products online before collecting them in store?
• The number of pick-up points (“click and collect”) will grow dramatically. 63% of US consumers have tried to reserve a product online before collecting the item in store (E-consultancy) !•Shopping with a robot. Connoisseurship is increasingly important. Robots will serve with deep and instant product information/storytelling. !CASE: ICA is offering faster retail experiences with a grocery retail app to sort purchasing lists according to local store layout
!• Locally grown, locally produced, locally presented, locally owned will be back in fashion. With a firm root in the food space, the trend is expanding into a broader consumption space. !• More than a third of consumers this holiday season planned to shop at small, local businesses, up from about a quarter a year ago (Deluxe Corp). !!!!!
!
JOINING IN (THE LOCAL COMMUNITY)
CONSUMER DRIVER: JOINING IN CONCEPT: PROXIMITY SERVICES
!Bulky and daily purchases will all move to ecommerce. Big shopping trips
will be eliminated and proximity services be key.
PROXIMITY SERVICES
• The retail neighborhood funk scene features micro breweries, locally produced food and local talents, as long-distance needs can be catered for using e-commerce platforms. !!• Mobile technology platforms are leveraging location as a key metric for helping citizens seamlessly access a host of services to help them better navigate their urban environments !!• Recycling stations will be a part of local life (CASE: H&M)
“We can be deceived by our ability to communicate with everyone, everywhere. We still occupy only one place at a time. Real power comes from mating our new forms of electronic access with our understanding of places.”
Gary Hack, a celebrated urban planner
René Redzepi gathers ingredients on Dragør Beach, near Copenhagen, for his restaurant, Noma, which has
twice been named the best in the world.
CONSUMER DRIVER: JOINING IN CONCEPT: PROXIMITY SERVICES
CONSUMER DRIVER: COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION CONCEPT: ACCESS INSTEAD OF OWNERSHIP
COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION Collaborative consumption will grow to a large slice of the retail industry. People will be less inclined to own
products and more interested in accessing services.
66% of all consumers say they are enthusiastic about sharing goods (GigaOm)
ACCESS INSTEAD OF OWNERSHIP
CONSUMER DRIVER: COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION CONCEPT: ACCESS INSTEAD OF OWNERSHIP
• Revenue from the sharing economy will surpass $3.5 billion this year, with a growth rate of 25% (Forbes) !• Renting instead of buying will grow 46% across categories in 2015. (Walker Sands’ 2014 Future of Retail Study) !• Spaces for collaborative ownership will be in high demand with collaborative versions of established businesses: travel (AirBnB), transportation (Zipcar), fashion (GirlMeetsDress), crowdfunding (Kickstarter), peer lending (Prosper) & skills (TaskRabbit)
CONSUMER DRIVER: MASTERING KNOWLEDGE CONCEPT: SKILL-BASED LEARNING
MASTERING KNOWLEDGE
!!
• Life-long learning is becoming an important part of people’s life and supplementary education (education outside of schools, universities and learning institutes) is one of the fastest growing media segments. !!• Connoisseurship has become more important due to social media - to both talk about and to find new friends. !• Brands who see the impact of traditional advertising declining will start to look for new ways to add value to their consumers where knowledge will be an important dimension !!
In a quickly changing society, the ongoing, voluntary, and self-motivated pursuit of knowledge is increasingly important
SKILL-BASED LEARNING
• Instead of mass events, retailers offer experiences that happen in the now - just for me. Knowledge is in focus - as was pioneered by Apple Genius Bars and now followed by Lululemons yoga classes and Jamie Oliver’s Recepease. !!!!!!!!!!!!
CONSUMER DRIVER: MASTERING KNOWLEDGE CONCEPT: SKILL-BASED LEARNING
$4.4 trillion
$91 billion
Current size of e-
learning market
2012 global education
expenditure
$191 billion
Current size of supple-mentary
education market
23%2012-2017 CAGR for e-
learning market,the fastest growing market
in education
• Education is the 3rd biggest and fastest growing category in app store, with the highest willingness to pay
In physical outlets In digital outlets
CONSUMER DRIVER: QUANTIFIED SELF CONCEPT: DATA-DRIVEN SERVICES
QUANTIFIED SELF A new breed of super humans who track everything 41%
CAGR GROWTH WEARABLE TECH
CONSUMER DRIVER: QUANTIFIED SELF CONCEPT: DATA-DRIVEN SERVICES
QUANTIFIED SELF: Google Glass
CONSUMER DRIVER: QUANTIFIED SELF CONCEPT: DATA-DRIVEN SERVICES
QUANTIFIED SELF
!!!!!!!!•Individuals constantly send out buying signals.
!• Analytics firm RetailNext tracks millions shoppers yearly by collecting data from more than 65,000
sensors installed in retail stores !
• Axiom, another analytics firm, holds an average of 1,500 pieces of information on more than 500 million consumers around the world, based on data that people put into the public domain. Acxiom can analyze its data to predict 3,000 different propensities, such as how a person may respond to one brand over another.
!•A single customer visit in a store can result in over10,000 unique data points.(HBR)
!•54% of the UK population thinks in 5 years time it will not be possible to turn off
automatically sharing your location and personal data (source: nVision, 2013) !
!
DATA-DRIVEN SERVICES
CONSUMER DRIVER: QUANTIFIED SELF CONCEPT: DATA-DRIVEN SERVICES
!
Case: ProPublica News App
DAILY NEEDS
CONSUMER DRIVERS NEW BUSINESS CONCEPTS
BACKGROUND Life in the modern city
DELIVERY FACTORIES !PROXIMITY SERVICES !SKILL-BASED LEARNING !ACCESS INSTEAD OF OWNERSHIP !DATA-BASED SERVICES
SPEED !JOINING IN (THE LOCAL COMMUNITY) !COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION !MASTERING KNOWLEDGE !QUANTIFIED SELF
Digital Media Map 2012
Media Disruption: Endless Market Opportunities
2 0 1 4
!
…and don’t forget 3D-printing…
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PRINT YOUR DIGITAL LIFE
Digital Media Map 2012
Media Disruption: Endless Market Opportunities
2 0 1 4
TACK! !
MAIL:[email protected] !
TWITTER: @saraohrvall