+ All Categories
Home > Documents > subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3....

subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3....

Date post: 08-Jul-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 0 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
28
CBM ~ R 7626 1984 157 TIÏDSCfiRIFTENBUREAU BIF3LI 7?'H~'L- K K?'~'1 i-~"` ~ I!;K'~' HOGt:;`..Ii.~OL TILBUhG subfaculteit der econometrie RESEARCH MEMORANDUM TILBURG UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Postbus 90153 - 5000 LE Tiiburg Netherlands ~ II IIIIIIIN I IN IINI nnI IIIII I I I II II III IIIIIN
Transcript
Page 1: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

CBM ~R

76261984157

TIÏDSCfiRIFTENBUREAUBIF3LI 7?'H~'L- KK?'~'1 i-~"` ~ I!;K'~'HOGt:;`..Ii.~OL

TILBUhG

subfaculteit der econometrie

RESEARCH MEMORANDUM

TILBURG UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICSPostbus 90153 - 5000 LE TiiburgNetherlands

~

II IIIIIIIN I IN IINI nnI IIIII I II II IIIII IIIIIN

Page 2: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12
Page 3: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

Estimation of Rationed and UnrationedHousehold Labor Supply FunctionsUsing Flexible Functional Forms

Peter Kooreman~)

Arie Kapteyn

Department of EconometricsTilburg UniversityP.O. Box 901535000 LE TilburgThe Netherlands

~) We wish to thank J.S. Cramer for helpful comments. Geert Ridder kind-ly provided his maximum likelihood computer program GRMAX.

Page 4: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

Table of contents

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. AIDS and rationing

3. Estimation

4. The data

5. Results

6. Concluding remarks

References

Pag

1

3

8

12

13

17

18

Page 5: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

Abstract

Models of household labor supply are usually estimated usíng data onhouseholds where both male and female partner work in a paid job, withcorrection for selection bias. From an econometric viewpoint, thisapproach is unsatisfactory, as a usually large proportion of the avai-lable data (the one earner families) is not used in the estimation. Inthis paper a household labor supply model is estimated using data onboth one earner and two earner families, and using flexible functionalforms (i.c. the AIDS-specification). Sínce in this case there exists noexplicit closed form for the rationed male labor supply equation (i.e.the male labor supply equation which applies to families with a non-par-ticipating female), numerical methods are used. For comparison, themodel is also estimated using data on two earner families only.

Page 6: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

1

1. Introduction

A distinctive feature of models of female labor supply is themíxed discrete-continuous nature of the dependent variable. As long asthe female labor supply decision is analyzed in isolation, it is ofminor consequence for the estimation method whether the labor supply (orleisure demand) equation is derived within a utility maximízation frame-work or not. In both cases Tobit-like methods are the appropriate toolsfor the estimation of the model. A number of authors have estimatedmodels of female labor supply along these lines, e.g. Heckman (1974),Hausman (1980) and Zabalza (1983). However, if female labor supply isanalyzed jointly with other household decision variables such as malelabor supply or commodity demands, both modelling and estimatíon withina utility maximization framework becomes more complicated.

One of the main reasons for this complication is that one has to

derive equations that give optimal demands for all goods and male lei-

sure if the female partner does not work. As has been shown by Deaton

and Muellbauer (1981), the class of utility or cost functions for which

these conditional or rationed demand equations can be derived explicit-ly, is quite restrictive.

One of the very few empirical studies on household labor supply

and rationing is the paper by Blundell and Walker (1982). In the estíma-

tion of their model only observations on two earner families (i.e. un-

rationed families) are used with a correction for section bias. The ob-vious drawback of their approach (apart from the fact that they employ a

restrictive functional form) is that a usually large proportion of the

available data (the one earner families) is not iised in the estimatíon.

Moreover, it is possible that parameter estimates based on data on two

earner families only do not apply to one earner families because of fac-

tors not cap[ured by the model.In this paper we estimate a household labor supply model using

data on both one earner and two earner families, and using flexible

functional forms. Sínce in this case there exists no explicit closedform for the rationed demand equations, numerical methods are used.

In section 2 we introduce Deaton and Muellbauer's Almost IdealDemand System (AIDS) as our choice of functional form for the descrip-

Page 7: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

z

tion of household labor supply, we present a simple way of incorporatingfamily composition effects into the model and we briefly discuss thetheory of rationing within the AIDS-framework. In section 3 the stochas-tic specification of the model ís presented with the corresponding like-lihoods. The data is described in section 4. Estimation results aregiven in section 5. Section 6 concludes.

Page 8: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

3

2. AIDS and Rationing

2.1. AIDS

As a specification of the model we choose the Almost IdealDemand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980a, 1980b).Within a labor supply context it has been used before by Ray (1982). TheAIDS cost function has the following form

0(u,wm.wf~P) 3 exp(afu.b) (2.1)

where

a- a0 i- amlog wm f af log wf t a log p tY

f 2 Ymm loS2 wm f Ymf l08 wm log wf t YmY log wm log P

t 2 Yff 1082 wf f Yf log wf log PY

1 2t Z Yyy l08 P~

Bm Bf Syb- s0 wm wf P

and

ay - 1 - am - af

Ry~-Rm-Bf

Ymy - -Ymm - Ymf

Yfy - -Yff - Ymf

Yyy - -Ymy - Yfy

(2.2)

(2.3)

(2.4)

(2.5)

(2.6)

(2.7)

Page 9: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

4

wm and wf are the male and female wage rate respectively, measured aftertaxes and p is the price of consumption y which we treat as a compositecommodity.l) The a's, S's and Y's are parameters.

As is well-known, the unrationed compensated demand for leisurefunctions can be found by differentíating the cost function with respectto wm and wf. The unrationed uncompensated demand functions are found bysolving u from

wmT t wfT t ~- Y- exp(atu.b) (2.8)

(where u is non labor family income (e.g. property income or welfarebenefits) and T is the total number of hours per period of time; Y isfull income) and substituting the solution for u into the unrationedcompensated demand functions.

This leads to the following specifications for the AIDS uncom-pensated unrationed demand for leisure functions:

Rm -(Ylwm)(am~mm log wm~mf log wff1'my log PtBm log Y-sm.a) (2.9)

Rf -(Ylwf)(af~mf log wm~l'ff log wf{1'fy log Pt6f log Y-Bf-a) (2.10)

where km and Rf are male and female leisure respectively.In contrast with the linear specifications used by Blundell and

Walker (1982) and those discussed by Deaton and Mullbauer (1981) wherelabor supply functions are either everywhere forward bending or every-where backward bending, the AIDS labor supply functions can be forwardbending in a certain range of wages and backward bending in a differentrange.

The effect of family composition on labor supply is modelled byallowing the a's to depend on the family size:

ai - a~ f ai log N , i- m,f,y (2.11)

1) The extension of the present analysis to a disaggregation of conswnp-tion is straíghtforward. Since we use cross-section data for the empiri-cal analysis, the lack of price variation in this data precludes a dis-aggregation of consumption in the empirical work.

Page 10: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

5

L a0 - 1, E ai r 0

where N is the number of persons in a family.It is easily verified that

g w w3 log N x am log(P) f af log(f)P

(2.12)

(2.13)

which we expect to be positive. Of course, the number of persons in afamily is a rather crude indicator of family composítion, but since themodelling of demographic variables is not the primary aim of this paper,we will stick to this rather simple specification. In any case, we allowthe effect of family size to be dífferent for different expenditurecategories. As such it is slightly more general than the specificationused by Ray (1982).

2.2. Rationing

The rationing theory employed here has been developed by Nearyand Roberts (1980) and Deaton and Muellbauer (1980a, 1981). Let us con-sider the case where female leisure Rf is restric[ed to be equal to Rf.Then the rationed cost function for the household is defined as

R - I~ (u.wm~wf.PrRf) - min (wmkmfwfRffp.y v ~ u) , (2.14)

Y.Rm

where v(km,Rf,y) is the direct household utility function defined onmale and female leisure and total household consumption.

There is a well-known relationship between the rationed and un-rationed cost function:

R - - - - )~ (u~wm.wf.P.Rf) - ~(u.wm.wf.P) f Rf(wf-wf . (2.15)

where wf -~(u,Rf,wm,p,u) is obtained by settíng the compensated demandEor female leisure equal to Rf and solving for Wf~ i.e. Wf is the femalewage rate which would induce the household to choose R- R if theref fwere no rationing.

Page 11: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

6

The rationed compensated demand for male leisure function isobtained by differentiating the restricted cost function with respect towm. In view of (2.12) this yields

aCR aC(u,wm.wf,P) 3C(u,wm,wf,P) 2wf ówfawm - 2wm } aW ' 2wm - Rf. aWm

f

óC(u,wm.wf.P) 2wf 8wf

- aw } Rf ów - Rf 2w -m m m

8C(u,wm,wf,P)- aw (2.16)

m

This is just the unrestricted compensated demand at wf - wf. Let a andb be defined by (2.2) and (2.3) with wf replaced by wf. The uncompen-sated restricted demand for male leisure function is found by solving uf rom

Y - exp(afu.b) f Rf(wf-wf) (2.17)

and next substituting the solution for u into the rationed compensateddemand function obtained from (2.16).

We can rewrite (2.17) as

Y - exp(afu.b) , (2.18)

where Y is defined as

Y- Y- Rf(wf-wf) -(T-Rf).wf t Rf.wf f wmT f u (2.19)

Here ( T-Rf).wf i s the amount of money earned by the female partner inmarket work. Since wf i s the shadow price of female leisure, w R isf' fthe value to the household of the female leisure. So y is the subjecti-vely valued full income in the case of rationin~. We already know thatthe rationed compensated demand i s equal to the unrationed compensated

Page 12: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

7

demand with wf replaced by wf. From (2.18) it is clear that we obtainthe ratíoned uncompensated demand from the unrationed uncompensateddemand if we replace wf everywhere by wf and Y by Y. So, for example,the restricted demand for male leisure RR is obtained from (2.9) asm

Rm -(Ylwm)(amfl'~ log wmi~`fmf log wf~-`fmy log PfBm log Y-Sm.a) (2.20)

Using (2.10) it is also clear that wf must satisfy:

Rf -(Y~wf)(af~mf log wm~ff l08 wf~1'fy log Ptsf log Y-Bf.a). (2.21)

It follows from the analysis by Neary and Roberts (1980) that ifthe parameters of the AIDS specification are such that the direct uti-lity function v is quasi-concave, there will exist a wf ~ wf satisfying(2.21) for any Qf in the domain of v. In contrast with the essentiallylinear specifications used by, for example, Deaton and Muellbauer (1981)and Blundell and Walker (1982), with AIDS there does not exist an expli-cit solution for wf. T'herefore, in the estimation of the model, numeri-cal methods will be used.

We will particularly be interested i n the case Rf - T, i .e. whenthe female does not have a paid job. In that case we have

Y- wm T t wf T f u (2.22)

which would be the full income if the female wage rate were equal to wf.It should be emphasized that the present rationing model is es-

sentially different from the Rationed Almost Ideal Demand System (RAIDS)due tot Deaton (1981). The RAIDS only allows for deriving utility-con-sistent rationed demand functions, given the ration level. In the pre-sent case we have a matchE:d pair of ratíoned and unrationed demand func-tions, consistently describing behavíor under both regimes.

Page 13: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

8

3. F.stimation

The only form of rationing considered in estimation ís the casewhere the female partner attains the maximal amount of leisure, i.e.,

she does not have a paid job. In that case she is rationed at Rf - T. Weshall estimate a model of joint labor supply of the male and the femalepartner in a household and of total consumption. As always, the budgetconstraint (in this case the full income constraint) allows us to dropone equation. We have chosen to omit the demand for total consumptionequation so that we are left with a system of two labor supply equations(or, equivalently, demand for leisure equations) for the male and femalepartner.

Let us introduce the following notation with respect to the i-thhousehold:i E 61 if both partners work;i E eo if only the male partner works.The functional form of the male labor supply changes if a householdswitches from regíme 61 to regime 0~. So we have the following endoge-nous switching model:

~Rf ~ Sf(wm.wf.P~u)

~Rf - Rf

Rm ~ Bm(wm.wfrP~u)

R f - T

km - gm(wm~wf.P~u)

~if A.f ~ T

I ~~ if2f~ T

(3.2)

(3.3)

(3.4)

(3.5)

where gf and gm are the unrestricted AIDS female and male demand forleisure equations, respectively.

Next, we take up the question of the stochastic specification ofthe model. The common practice in estimating demand systems is to addnormally distributed error terms to the demand equations or their shareform, without being specific about the possible sources of the sto-

Page 14: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

9

chastic disturbance. Following this approach it seems natural to writethe stochastic version as follows:

~Rf - gf(wm.wf.P.u) f Ef

Rf - RfI

Rm - gm(wm.wf~P~V) f Em ~

Rf-T

Rm - gm(wm.wf.P~V) t em

(3.1')

(3.2')if Rf ~ T

(3.3')

(3.4')

(3.5')

with em and Ef following a normal dístribution with zero mean and un-restricted variance covariance matrix.

The error terms in ( 3. 3' ) and ( 3. S' ) are equal since the onlydifference is that wf is replaced by wf. However, if the em and ef wouldincorporate random preferences, then the error terms in (3.3') and(3.5') cannot be both additive and normally distributed. For example,let ef - uf t vf, where uf represents random variation of preferencesacross households and vf represents other sources of random variation infemale leisure. Assume both uf and vf to be normally distributed. For arationed household, wf is the solution of

T - gf(wm,wf,P,u) f uf (3.6)

As a result the shadow wage wf is a complicated non-linear function ofuf. Hence, wf is a random variable and its distribution is definitelynonnormal. So, assuming an additive normally dístributed error terms in(3.1') appears ínconsistent with an additive normally distributed errorterm in (3.5').

The non-normality of wf need not be a problem in itself. Thedensities that appear in the likelihood function in the case of randompreferences involve the shadow wage, which has to be integrated out.This can be performed using numerical íntegration techniques and there-fore, the exact distributional form is of minor importance. However,generally these densities cannot be ensured to be proper ones. The rea-

Page 15: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

10

son is that the existence and the uniqueness of the shadow wage cannotalways be guaranteed, unless the cost function is globally concave. Itcan be shown that the AIDS cost function is globally concave if and onlyif all S's are equal to zero and a(wm,wf,p) given in (2.2) is concave(Deaton and Muellbauer, 1980b). However, in that case preferences arehomothetic and the flexibility is lost. It appears that, at least forAIDS, flexibility and global concavity of the cost function are incompa-tible properties.

In view of these problems, we have adopted the following pragma-tic solution. The shadow wage wf is defined as the solution of

T ' 8f(wm.wf.P.u) (3.6')

(i.e. (2.21), with Rf - T) and the error term em in (3.5') is replacedby an error term Em~ which is assumed to be normally distributed, butits variance and correlation with ef are allowed to be different fromthose of e. The foregoing discussion makes clear that if Ef partly re-mpresents random variation of preferences, the distributional assumption

Ron e can only hold true approximately.mTo summarize, we specify the following model:

Rf ' 8f(wm.wf.PrV) f Ef

~

Rf - Rf

Rm - 8m(wm~wf.Pru) f

Rf - T

e m

R -Rm - gm(wm.wf.P.u) f em

} ~if R.f ~ T

( 3.1")

(3.2")

(3.4")

(3.5")

In the estimation the additive error terms are actually added tothe share form of the equations. The model will be estimated on twotypes of data.

Page 16: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

11

Case IData on

then:both 9~ and 61 are used. The likelihood of the observations is

~í i ~i Ri ~i

L1 ~ i E el hl(sf ~sm)i E6G TJ h2(sf~sm )dsf . í3.6)

~where sf, sm and s~ are the budget shares corresponding to lCf, R,m andkm, respectively and T is defined as T-

sity of sf and sm and~i i Rdensities are marginals of the joint density of sf , sm and sm .

Case II

Only data on 61 are used. The likelihood of [he observations is

L2 - II hl(sfi,sm)iEel

Th3(sfi)dsfi,

where h3 is the marginal density of sfi.

(3.7)

We estimate the paramaters in the model (3.1")-(3.5") for bothcases. The likelihoods are maximized using a quasi-Newton algorithmwhich requires no (analytícal) derivatives, as provided by computer rou-tines of the NAG-Library (E~4JBF). For Case I, equation (2.21) has to besolved numerically for all elements of 6~, for all evaluations of thelikelihood function, needed to attain the global maximum of the likelí-hood and to calculate the estimated (asymptotic) variance-covariancematrix of the maximum likelihood estimators. The technique used is acombínation of the methods of linear interpolation, linear extrapolatíonand bisection (NAG-library, C~SAZF). Although concavity of the costfunction and hence the existence and the uniqueness of wf cannot beguaranteed for all elements of 8~, the algorithm always found only onesolutíon for W each time equation (2.21) was solved.f

~iT.wf~Y. hl is the joint den-

ít . .. . . . . .. .. ~i - sR . Bothm

m

~

i

Page 17: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

12

4. The data

The models in section 3 have been estimated using data from alabor mobility survey in the Netherlands, conducted in the Fall of 1982by the Netherland Central Bureau of Statistics and the Institute forSocial Research of Tilburg University. The sample has been drawn ran-domly from the populatíon of all households in the Netherlands whosehead is between 18 and 65 years of age; it contains 1315 households.

From this sample we took a subsample of households containing atleast two adults of different sex, where the male partner is an employedwage earner. The size of the subsample is 507; in 197 households thefemale partner is also an employed wage earner, in 310 households thefemale partner does not have a paid job. Thus, we excluded the self-employed, the households with only one adult, the households where themale partner is unemployed, retired, going to school, dísabled, etc.

To be able to estimate model (3.1")-(3.5") we need observationson (potential) wage rates, also of females who díd not have a paid jobat tlie time of the survey. We followed the standard procedure of con-structing a wage equation for females on the basis of the households forwhich we observe the female wage rate. In our sample, this is only thecase for the 139 households where the female partner works at least 15hours a week.

Using Heckman's procedure to correct for selectivity bias, thefollowing wage equation was estimated (t-values in parentheses):

wf - 2.14 t 0.26 AGE - 0.003 AGE2 -E 1.68 DUM1 ~-

(0.36) (0.63) (-0.74) (1.32)

2.12 DUM2 t 3.01 DUM3 t 1.69 a, R2 - 0.14

(2.78) (1.23) (1.34)

DUM1, DUM2 and DUM3 are dummy variables to represent education, a is theestimated inverse of the Mill's-ratio (see Heckman (1979)).

In the estima[ion of the model the predicted values (with omis-sion of a) for both participating and non-participating females wereused as an instrument for female wage rate.

Page 18: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

13

5. Results

The results of the ML-estimation for both cases are summarizedin table 1. In the first place we notice that the estimates obtained incase I are the most accurate ones, because more observations are usedthan in the other case.

In case I the joint hypothesis am a am and p(em'Ef) - p(Em'ef)is rejected at the 5X-level on the basis of a likelihood ratio test.

Although the differences between the columns seem to be quitesmall, a likelihood ratio test of the equality of parameters acrosscolumns rejects the equality hypothesis.I) There may be a number of ex-planations for these significant differences. For example, ít may be dueto a neglect of the possibly important effect of fixed costs of enteringthe labor market, or may be family composition effects should be incor-porated more elaborately. Whatever the reason might be, it is clear thatone has to be careful ín using data on two earner households only toalso explain the behavior of one earner households, even if selectionbias has been taken into account.

In the remainder of this section we will concentrate on theestimation results of case I. In figure 1 the labor supply functionsimplied by the parameter estímates are drawn.

1) The parameter estimates of case I were inserted in the likelíhoodfunction of case II and vice versa. In both cases the resulting teststatistic implied rejection at the 5i-level of the equality hypo[hesis.

Page 19: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

14

Table 1. Estimation resultsa) ( standard erros in parentheses)

Parameters Case I Case II

0am 0.64 0.69(0.019) (0.023)

1am -0.04 -0.030

(0.004) (0.004)af 0.37 0.31

1(0.034) (0.047)

af 0.07 0.05(0.007) (0.007)

Ymm 0.15 0.14(0.009) (0.009)

Ymf -0.15 -0.16(0.009) (0.010)

Yff 0.15 0.20(0.012) (0.015)

Bm -0.86 -0.96(0.094) (0.123)

Sf 0.12 -0.09(0.061) (0.092)

am 0.027 0.025

af

Ram

(0.0017) (0.0013)0.055 0.029(0.0031) (0.0018)0.025 -

(0.0011)P(Em,ef)b) -0.31 -0.16

R b)P(Em.ef)

(0.13) (0.08)0.17 -

(0.22)

log L 1272.0 913.8

number ofobservations 507 197

a) a0 was fixed a priori for computatíonal reasons (see Deaton andMuellbauer (19806) and Ray (1982)).

b) p stands for the correlation coefficien[.

Page 20: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

15

60

501

40j

301

201

60

501

40j

n m~R- - -.- hf

3oj

201

101i '

IF { 1 { I a` , ' ~~ i i F 1 {6 8 10 12 14 16 18 6~ . 8 10 12 14 16 18

-10F Wm -10`Wf

N-460 60

T ~

50j 50~

40~ ~-' 40~

301 30j

lOr ~ ~ l OF

N-2

-

~ ~ - ~ ~~-- f- f - ~ t---i- ~-- -:~-~ E I6 8 10 12. 14 16 IB 6 8 1D~ 12 14 16 18

1 ~ . ` Wm -1 iWfI

30L

IOF

Figure 1. Labor supply functions 1)

20 7

10.`

-

~ f--~-~1- ~ --i- -t t- 1 1---~---1-- f --~-- --f--~6 8~10 12 14 16 18 0 6 8 10 12i~14 16 18~

1 '~ Wm -10 ,-. ` ~ ' Wf

N-660 r

50

---'--- . 40

30

1) All other variables are evaluated at the sample mean.

Page 21: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

16

The labor supply functions look definitely nonlinear, which un-derlínes the need to use flexible functional forms.

The male labor supply function is backward bending in the lowerranges of wm and forward bending for high values of wm. Male labor sup-ply is rather inelastic, both with respect to wf and wm. Apart from thefamiliar interpreta[ion that substitution and income effect more or lesscancel out, this finding may also point at institutional constraintswhich keep most males at a 40-hour work week. Notice that hR tends to bemeven less elastíc with respect to wm in ratíoned families, where thefemale does not have a paid job. These appear to be the traditionalfamilies where the female does not work and the male has a full-time (~40 houra a week) job. Note that hm is perfectly inelastic with respect~to wf, as it should be and that hm ~ hm íf hf - 0.

Female labor supply is more responsive than male labor supply toboth the male and the female wage rate. If the male wage rate goes up,female labor supply falls. If the female wage rate rises, female laborsupply rises as well.

The estimates of the parameters am and af, representing theeffect of family size on labor supply, are such that the requirementthat a log C~a log N is posítive is statisfied for all sample points.That is, the cost of attaining a certain utility level increases withfamily size.

Obviously, the highest female participation rate and the largestnumber of hours worked by the female, occurs in families without child-ren. When there are children, the female participation rate is very low,unless the male wage rate is low or the female wage rate is very high.In all cases male labor supply is rather inelaetic with respect tofamily size.

Finally, we have investigated whether the shadow wage of a non-participating female exceeded her predicted market wage. In 76Y of allone earner household this requirement was satisfied. The fact thatwf ~ wf in the other cases might be interpreted as an indication of

involuntary unemployment. In either case, the rationing of the oneearner households is modelled appropríately.

Page 22: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

17

6. Concluding remarks

Models of household labor supply are usually estimated usingdata on two earner families only. Thís approach is motivated by the factthat the use of data on families with one earner requires the analysisof corner solutions. Although the theory of rationíng provides an appro-priate framework for the analysis of corner solutions, only restrictivefunctional specifications allow for a closed form for the utility maxi-mizing labor supply in such cases.

However, using numerical methods, we have estimated a householdlabor supply model using data on both one earner and two earner fami-lies, and using flexible functional forms.

The labor supply functions in figure 1 look definitely non-linear, indicating the need to use flexible functional forms. Theresults presented in table 1 indícate, moreover, that for reasons ofestimation accuracy it is worthwhile to employ observations on bothrationed and unrationed households.

Page 23: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

ls

References

Blundell, R. and I. Walker (1982), "Modelling the joint determination ofhousehold labour supplies and commodity demands", The Economic Jour-nal, 92, pp. 351-364.

Deaton, A. (1981), "Theoretical and empirical approaches to consimmerdemand under rationing" in Essays in the theory and measurement ofconsumer behavior, ed. by A. Deaton. New York: Cambridge UniversityPress.

Deaton, A. and J. Muellbauer (1980a), Economics and Consumer Behavior.New York: Cambridge University Press.- and -(1980b), "An almos[ ideal demand system", American EconomicReview, 70, pp. 312-326.- and -(1981), "Functional forms for labor supply and commoditydemands wíth and without quantity restrictions", Econometrica, 49,pp. 1521-1532.

Hausman, J.A. (1980), "The effect of wages, taxes and fixed costs onwomen's labor force participation", Journal of Public Economics, 14,pp. 161-194.

Heckman, J.J. (1974), "Shadow prices, market wages and labor supply",Econometrica, 42, pp. 679-694.-(1979), "Sample selection bías as a specification error", Econome-trica, 47, pp. 153-161.

Lee, L.F. and M.M. Pitt (1983), "Specification and estimation of demandsystems with limited dependent variables", Discussion paper, Univer-sity of Minnesota.

Neary, J.P. and K.W.S. Roberts (1980), "The theory of household beha-viour under rationing", European Economic Review, 13, pp. 25-42.

Page 24: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

19

Ray, R. ( 1982), "Estimating utility consistent labour supply functions",Economics Letters, 9, pp. 389-395.

Zabalza, A. (1983), "The CES utility function, non-linear budget con-straints and labour supply. Results on female participation andhours", The Economic Journal, 93, pp. 312-330.

Page 25: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

IN 1983 REEDS VERSCHENEN

126 H.H. TigelaarIdentification of noisy línear systems with multiple arma inputs.

127 J.P.C. KleijnenStatistical Analysis of Steady-State Simulations: Survey of RecentProgress.

128 A.J. de ZeeuwTwo notes on Nash and Information.

129 H.L. Theuns en A.M.L. Passier-GrootjansToeristische ontwikkeling - voorwaarden en systematiek; een selec-tief literatuuroverzicht.

130 J. Plasmans en V. SomersA Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method of a Three Market Disequíli-brium Model.

131 R. van Montfort, R. Schippers, R. HeutsJohnson S~ transformations for parameter estimation in arma-modelswhen data are notrgaussian.

132 J. Glombowski en M. KrugerOn the R81e of Distribution in Different Theories of CyclicalGrowth.

133 J.W.A. Vingerhoets en H.J.A. CoppensInternationale Grondstoffenovereenkomsten.Effecten, kosten en oligopolisten.

134 W.J. OomensThe economic interpretation of the advertising effect of LydiaPinkham.

135 J.P.C. KleijnenRegression analysis: assumptions, alternatives, applications.

136 J.P.C. KleijnenOn the interpretation of variables.

137 G. van der Laan en A.J.J. TalmanSimplicial approximation of solutions to the nonlinear complemen-tarity problem with lower and upper bounds.

Page 26: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

ii

IN 1984 REEDS VERSCHENEN

138 G.J. Cuypers, J.P.C. Kleijnen en J.W.M. van RooyenTesting the Mean of an Asymetric Population:Four Procedures Evaluated

139 T. Wansbeek en A. KapteynEstimation in a linear model with serially correlated errors whenobservations are missing

140 A. Kapteyn, S. van de Geer, H. van de Stadt, T. WansbeekInterdependent preferences: an econometric analysis

141 W.J.H. van GroenendaalDiscrete and contínuous univariate modellíng

142 J.P.C. Kleijnen, P. Cremers, F. van BelleThe power Qf weighted and ordinary least squares with estimatedunequal variances in experimental design

143 J.P.C. KleíjnenSuperefficient estimation of power functions in simulationexperiments

144 P.A. Bekker, D.S.G. PollockIdentífication of linear stochastic models with covariancerestrictions.

145 Max D. Merbis, Aart J. de ZeeuwFrom structural form to state-space form

146 T.M. Doup and A.J.J. TalmanA new variable dimension simplicial algorithm to find equilibria onthe product space of unit simplices.

147 G. van der Laan, A.J.J. Talman and L. Van der HeydenVariable dimension algorithms for unproper labellings.

148 G.J.C.Th. van SchijndelDynamic firm behaviour and financial leverage clienteles

149 M. Plattel, J. PeilThe ethico-political and theoretical reconstructíon of contemporaryeconomic doctrines

150 F.J.A.M. Hoes, C.W. VroomJapanese Business Policy: The Cash Flow Trianglean exercise in sociological demystification

151 T.M. Doup, G. van der Laan and A.J.J. TalmanThe (2~1-2)-ray algorithm: a new simplicial algorithm to computeeconomic equilibria

Page 27: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

iii

IN 1984 RF.EDS VERSCHENEN (vervolg)

152 A.L. Hempenius, P.G.H. MulderTotal Mortality Analysis of the Rotterdam Sample of the Kaunas-Rotterdam Intervention Study (KRIS)

153 A. Kapteyn, P. KooremanA disaggregated analysis of the allocation of time within thehousehold.

154 T. Wansbeek, A. KapteynStatistically and Computationally Efficient Estimation of theGravíty Model.

155 P.F.P.M. NederstigtOver de kosten per ziekenhuisopname en levensduurmodellen

156 B.R. MeijboomAn input-output like corporate model including multipletechnologies and make-or-buy decisions

Page 28: subfaculteit der econometrie · Table of contents Abstract 1. Introduction 2. AIDS and rationing 3. Estimation 4. The data 5. Results 6. Concluding remarks References Pag 1 3 8 12

V I~ I N~N~6~MN~ IVdm~~~~ I N


Recommended