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SUBPRIME CRISIS – ITS IMPACT
ON GLOBAL ECONOMY
Presented
By
Zaid Baig
MBLA 16
III Sem. l
Content History of global financial crisis. Subprime crisis Why and how it happened Who is responsible What could have been done to avoid the
crisis Effects of crisis on global economy Aftermaths of subprime crisis What we can learn from the crisis Conclusion
List of (recent) recessions (and depressions) that have affected the world
1919-21 Depression, cause-The end of World War I
Great Depression 1930, cause-US Reducing demand for European exports, also high interest rate defending the gold standard.
Mid 1970s recession, cause- oil crisis Early 1990s recession, cause- US savings and
loan crisis leading to the Early 1990s recession. Late-2000s recession, cause- dot com bubble
burst.
Subprime Mortgage Crisis
Sharp rise in home foreclosures in late 2006 Only 9% in 1996, 13% in 1999, 20% in 2006 $1.3 Trillion subprime mortgage as of March 2007 The delinquency rate had risen to 21% by 2008
Subprime Borrowers For poor credit history Limited income
Subprime Lenders Greater risks High returns
New Model of Mortgage Lending
Source: BBC News
Causes of the Crisis
The Housing Downturn Excess supply of home inventory Sales volume of new homes dropped Reduced market prices (10.4% 12/06-12/07)
Borrowers Difficulties in re-financing Begin to default on loans Walk away from properties Fraudulent misrepresentations
Causes of the Crisis
Financial Institutions Attraction from high returns Offered high-risk loan and incentives Believes that will pass on the risk to others
Securitization Mortgage backed securities Risk readily transferred to other investors From 54% in 2001 to 75% in 2006
Causes of the Crisis
Government and Regulators Community Reinvestment Act, encourages the
development of the subprime debacle Glass-Steagall Act contributes to the subprime crisis
(FDIC back up)
Central banks Less concerned with avoiding asset bubbles React after bubbles burst to minimize the impact No determination on monetary policy Institutions risk more because of Fed’s rescue
Direct Impacts of the Crisis
Stock Market
08/15/07 Dow Jones had dropped below 13,000 from July’s 14000
First 3 weeks of 08, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9%
1/18/08 Dow Jones/0.5%, S&P 500/0.6%, and NASDAQ/0.3%
01/21/08 (black Monday) the world’s biggest falls since Sept. 11, 2001
Direct Impacts of the Crisis
Financial Institutions – Bankruptcy
New Century Financial (USA)– Apr. 2, 2007 American Home Mortgage (USA) – Aug. 6, 2007 Sentinel management Group (USA) – Aug. 17, 2007 Ameriquest (USA) – Aug. 31, 2007 NetBank (USA) – Sept. 30, 2007 Terra Securities (Norway) – Nov. 28, 2007 American Freedom Mortgage Inc. (USA) – Jan. 30, 2007
Direct Impacts of the Crisis
Financial Institutions – Write-Downs
Citigroup (USA) - $24.1 bln Merrill Lynch (USA) - $22.5 bln UBS AG (Switzerland) - $16.7 bln Morgan Stanley (USA) - $10.3 Credit Agricole (France) - $4.8 bln HSBC (United Kingdom) - $3.4 bln Bank of America (USA) - $5.28 bln CIBC (Canada) – 3.2 bln Deutsche Bank (Germany) - $3.1 bln
By 02/19/08 losses or write-downs > U.S. $150 blnBe expected exceeding $200 - $400 bln
Domestic Impacts of the Crisis
Home Owners Housing prices down 10.4% in Dec. 07 vs. year-ago Sales of new homes dropped by 26.4% in 07 vs. 06 By Jan. 2008, the inventory of unsold new homes
stood at 9.8 months, the highest level since 1981. Two million families will be evicted from their homes
Minorities Disproportionate level of foreclosures in minority 46% Hispanics, 55% blacks got higher cost loans
Domestic Impacts of the Crisis
Economy Condition Recession Low GDP growth rate Business close out or lose money (banks, builders etc.) Weak financial market Low consumer spending Lose jobs
Other credit markets Credit card Car loan
Global Impacts of the Crisis
Investors will be very cautious to act Lack confidence in stock/bound market
Consumer spending will slowdown Lack of cash or unwilling to spend
World economy may slip into recession U.S. economy condition will affect global economy
GDP growth will be low Lose businesses Lose jobs Economy slow down
Global Impacts of the Crisis
Financial market May take long time to recover
Unemployment rate may be high Slow economy increase unemployment rate
Exports will decrease in China, Korea, Taiwan GDP growth heavily depends on export
Impact on India
Little effect because there was quite a lot of liquidity in domestic markets in countries like India. Lack of exposure to U.S. mortgage securities; and the possibility of lower
capital inflows Public Sector Banks, viz State Bank Of India, Bank Of India, Bank Of
Baroda, Canara Bank, Punjab National Bank etc do not have major exposure to credit derivatives market due to their limited overseas operations.
The first Indian Organization affected by this Crisis was ICICI Bank Ltd. ICICI Bank's profit took a hit of more than Rs 1,050 crores ($264 million) in the year 2007-08. This was an indirect effect. ICICI lost money due to depreciation in the value of securities it bought in the international markets. Due to a rise in global interest rates after the sub prime loan crisis, the value of these securities fell, forcing the bank to provide for the difference from its profits.
Aftermaths There was a total of 2.2 million foreclosures in 2007, up 75% from the roughly
1.26 million RealtyTrac reported in 2006. RealtyTrac said 1% of all US households were in 'some stage of foreclosure' in 2007, up from 0.58% in 2006.
By the end of 2008, home prices had dropped 20% from their 2006 peak.
Many programs have been enacted and legislation passed to help those who have been hit the hardest by the crisis. Some examples include the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and the Homeowners Affordability and Stability Plan.
Former President Bill Clinton and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan indicated they did not properly regulate derivatives, including credit default swaps. A bill called the Derivatives Markets Transparency and Accountability Act of 2009 has been proposed to further regulate the CDS market. This bill would provide the authority to suspend CDS trading under certain conditions.
Government and Central Banks’ Actions
08/2007, President Bush announced – Hope New Alliance 02/13/08, President signed a tax rebates of $168 bln 09/18/07, the Fed dropped rate ½ point 10/31/07, ¼ point cut by Fed 12/11/07, ¼ point cut by Fed 01/22/08 the Fed slashed the rate by 3/4 points to 3.5% 01/30/08 another cut of 1/2 points to 3% Central Banks have pumped billions of dollars to banks Central Banks of the world have done the same thing
Conclusion Can you see that? Everybody wins! Borrowers,
banks and financial institutions are eating the same cheese happily and the cheese is “property appreciation”. Yummy, yummy!
We have learned almost nothing from our past experiences.
Human Greed Regulation Involvement of govt.
Thank You!