Summary for Policy Makers and Technical Summary - Arabic

8/3/2019 Summary for Policy Makers and Technical Summary - Arabic

1/110

2007


2/110


3/110

2007G JdG jdG

Andy Reisinger

jd dG Y~dG I~Mh FQdh~dG eG dG ,dG

G H G

Rajendra K. Pachauri

dh~dG eG dG FQG H G

SSCG HdG jaeG d dG jdG

G H G dh~dG

SSCG HdG ja

Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson,

William Hare, Saleemul Huq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ul-

rike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno, Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville

Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravin-

dranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci, Stephen

Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart,

Dennis Tirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe

G H G dh~dG eG dG Jf

:jdG Gg LGe

G dh~dG eG d HGdG dG jJ KdG edG baCG ge .dG jdG :2007 G J :2007 ,G H G dh~dG eG dG:](hQ) SSCG HdG ja[ G H

.U104 ,GjS ,L ,G H G dh~dG eG dG .[R.K Pachauri! A. Reisinger

:dG jd dG Y~dG I~Mh

Andy Reisinger, Richard Nottage, Prima Madan

CG efHd I~G

dG GjG OUQCd

Q`````M


4/110

G H G dh~dG eG dG Jf

2008 ,G H G dh~dG eG d X G L

2008 hCG dG

ISBN 92-9169-622-6

e ILe e SG Rjh .d CHh NBG T CHh kfhdEGh YW dG H G H G dh~dG eG dG e A LdG hCG SG hCG dG Wh jdG CH SGG LJh .kVGhh kec Q~G H jT dH PEG hO jdG Gg

:dG GdG Y eH jd hCG jdG

IPCC

c/o World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

7bis avenue de la Paix Tel. : +41 22 730 8208

P.O Box No. 2300 Fax.: +41 22 730 8025

CH- 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]

G dh~dG eG dG fL e CGQ CG Y dG GMCG e M CH J G Gg e~G dGh OGG VY jW.eJ hCG gOh~M H j a hCG ,Jd hCG e hCG j~e hCG bEG hCG ~H C fdG VdH j a G H

JT Y d kJ G H G dh~dG eG dG b e H Ue hCG I~e fCG j IO~ e hCG cT cP EG.J hCG cJ dG

~jdG W

2007 dG d Hf IFH jFa e I~MGh g G H G dh~dG eG dG

Hf SD e eY g Hf IFL dG~e Jh Hf IFL .Hf SDe


5/110

OH 1988dG G H G dh~dG eG dG fCGI~G CG efHh jG OUQCd dG G dH ce,G H G dG eG J jh H foCGh ,dVhh ,G d jObG - YLGh dG QKBG j~JhJQ~UCG dG IO~G G~G ODJh .HSd bGh JGSGkFQ kGQhO G dP e G H G dh~dG eG dGJ EG HSd SS Jh OYG Y eG I~Ye De i~d bKe IQe EG Ld UN HSG ~bh ,GfCG dG G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG GWCG

.H G 1997 d Jc cJhH h 1992 dG

1995h 1990) dG jQJ e S FfEG e dG Q~UCGh,dG bQdGh ,UG jQdGh (2007 dG jdG Gg K 2001hY e~j Sb LGe UCG dG ,G SGQ~dG jQJh.dGh AGG e gZh ,AdGh ,SdG fU SGh f~cCG K jJh SMG{ Y UN jJ JGQe ~MCG hW jM{ Y UN jJh ,2005 dG Q~U dG zHdGOG{h ,2005 dG Q~U idG zdG NG dGh hRhCG ~j~L e QuM dG za~dG GRZ O WdG FGd LdG

.zGh G J{ Y a bQh kdM q~Jh .2006 dG

2007 af /dG jJ 17 ~YG dG dG jdG GHh

HQCG e dCj dG HGdG dG jJ j fSEH a .z2007 G J{ GH dG GW MGe Y Q~U dGh G~baCG dEG UJ dG L SG j dG j dGhjb ~j~dG Lh Y hJ dJ Y jh KdG edG~cDj a :G J G~e SdG fU gG Ve gVjh ;jH fCG EG e ijh BG Fb G J CGfeEG jh ,G bGh a QG dG QGMG QKBG,dd k jdG ~jh ;J e q~d G JdG GJ i~e e q~G EG eJ dG LddGh ,SdGh

.G NG

FQ dDe 500e cCG QT kGRQH kGREG HGdG dG jJ q~ojhY ShCG YCG EG ~SG ~bh ,VGSG N 2000 Jh VhcQe dhO Fe e cCG jdG Hh~G EG u~obh ,SGh J AGN G~HCG e IK ALh .a dG eEd feG Y f CG Ofh .hJh Jh SM e e d

,G H G dh~dG eG dG e AYCh , kL

jdH G dG Y~dG I~Mh UHh ,dG Y~dG G~Mh XhRenate IQc~dh ,dO OQGGh bdG ~ HdGh dG

.bJG feCG Xh ,dG IJS ,Christ

SG h~dG J dG Gh eG eH cfhe M dG RMCG ~bh .Ye H AGd Y~dG ~Jh ,dedG G~dG e AGG e kGc kGO~Y dYCG cGTEH UN f SG h~da ;dfG M JGObG dG G~dGh.dG YLG Q dG d dG I~YG ~J e qdG eG Hh~e L gG~HCG dG hdG hQ kjCG cfh

.bhm~ AGQBG aGJ EG Ud dG GQhO ke

,Rajendra K. Pachauri Qc~dG ,dG FQ f CG Of kGNCGhdG Gg Y GYEGh .c hOh H G OL LJ ddIFL bdG Gg e JOHh c da ,BG ke Se

.2007 dG d Hf

Qahd dG faY Y GYEd UdG g f CG kjCG Ofhb cdG ~J ~a ,Jad ~j~dG SCH fQT Yh Bert Bolin/hCG fc 30 G aGhh ,d FQ hCG UH S jY

.G Yh jG OUQCG Y IgH IM ~H 2007 jO

hQL ejG OUQCd dG d dG eCG

Achim Steiner

d I~G CG efH ,dG j~G

j~`````J

iii


6/110


7/110

AG j edG SdG fd eh dG jdG GgG dh~dG eG d HGdG dG jJ e FdGh HGdGfU NJh .z2007 G J{ G G Hojh jdG Gg j ,G UCG e gZh edG SdGdG GP G G J Y eG ~MCG H edGjdG Gg e VdGh .jObG Y LGh dGh dGdG YdG QGdG UCG e gZh eG I~Ye gJ N Lh Se H SG Jh ZU Y UGh

.fEG H G

baCG ge IOQGdG eG dG jdG f jhhCG edG jdG jJ :gh HGdG dG jJ KdG edGY dG edG jdG jJh ,zFjdG dG SSCG{ YY ddG edG jdG jJh ,zgAGREG dGh e dGh QKBG{,dG jQJ e iNCG jQJ Y kjCG ~jh .zG J J{d ja jdG c ~bh .INCG UG gjQJ SgG KdG edG baCG jQJ e mc dDe e eh Gd kahh .dG FQ Y jh ,HGdG dG jJ bdG GUMh a Z SCH jdG he dDG ~YCG ,dG

.dGh dG Fbd dG dG Y JGP

dG GP edG FG e FW dG j dG h jh

jh ,dG JbCG VGe S EG e edG SdHe ~MGh e cCG j dG d kbO gfG dG jdG,SdG fd e :jAL jdG jh VGG JVGG J ddG a G GHCG eCGh .e jJhJ VdGh RjEG VGZC dh ,G jdG GGHCG e H ~MGh Ve e cCG j dG FG H

.zSdG fd e{`dG

dGh hCG edG jdG e ee dG Gg j:1VGG GJ CG dG QKBG Yh G GJ e ~U oQ Y

.dG Gh dG fCH VG

QYG j khJ dG SCG dG Gg hj:2 VGdG dG jh .CG jdGh dG G J c,YTEG GKDH GQhe ,JGcJh a~dG GRZ KfH CG~JCG c GPEG e ujh ,G J e dP Y j AfGhFMCGh FjdG fCG h G IOUG GdG iJe G g ~J ~jh .CG jH hCG W SCG EG KdG edG baCG ge L OQh dG eG Y

.HGdG dG jJ

~````

Y KdG edG baCG e ee dG Gg OQj:3 VG~jh .dG Gg QKBGh G J e G Kh~M bjbG GdG Yh KfG gjQS Y f qhDe eeQKBG jh ,~H eh jdGh OG dG G Kh~MYdGh fCH G G J oj CG bj dG

.dGh fEG ad UN kgfG jh .WGh

HSGh dGh dG GQN dG Gg j:4 VGHGdGh dGh hCG edG j dG jJ J HQh .eG~G dG Hh H SG GAGLEGh G J HdG H gJ dG HSG GAGLEG g VG Gg,GhOCGh ,GAG``LEGh ,SdGh ,LddG hjh .2030QRBdG LhCG dP fL EG hjh ,dG VJ dG LGG dch

.jdG OdGh

dG fGG jh ,LCG jW QG dG Gg j:5VGdPh ,dGh dH dG GP jObG YLGh dGhCH jQWEG I~G CG bJG MCGh G~gCG e e f YIQGOEG Qe QWEG G J CH QGdG U jh .G JedGh dG jd UN gfG JGP bdG kde ,WGJ G KfG GQe dG Gg jh .Y LHGOjR e H Jj eh Ye je ~Y a~dG GRZ GcJ

jJh , dG dJ Y e e OQj c ,IQGG LQO kjCG jh .G J QKBG h ,HG LddG fhjh ,G J AGREG d FQ GhO N e HQh~U e X dG I~j~G eG AV Y ~TG fEG EG

.ddG dG jJ

dG ~Y LhCGh G LSG dG Gg Roj:6 VG.FdG

e fCG EG ,JGH Fb Kh Y LH j dG jdG CG ZQhG J{ fG iNCG G~G S dEG dG iQhdG

EG LdH UdG e ~je Y WG VGZC Ujh ,z2007edG baCG jQJ e jJ ch .KdG edG baCG geeh ,e Y a J J a Y e dCj

.GS GS dG JbCG SdG fd eh ,a

GP dG EG Ic GQTEG a G dG jdG eCGhjQdG h HGdG dG jJ edG baCG ge dGGQTEG ~J ,IAGd GJh .dG Y IQOdG dG GP iNCGdG GP GHCG Y EG zSdG fd e{ `dG LG

v


8/110

idG (CD-ROM)fhdEG UdGh .`G ``dG ``jdG jJ edG baCG ge f Y j jdG Gg jfd G Y a ,jfEG dH ec HGdG dGSdG dG H dG jdGh ,dG Gh ,SdGT J fhdEG dG LG GQTEGh .I~G CH

eG e ~je EG H UdG e QdG d IRQH UhjdG Gg ae OQJh .jObG YLGh dGh dGASCGh ,GQNH FGbh ,H Fbh ,d dO

.AGG e LGGh ,jdG LGeh ,dDG

,dGh ,LGGh ,OG~YEG GAGLE ah dG jdG Gg ~YCG ~bhb e boCGh ~YGh ,dG jQH G dGh ,QGbEGh ,OYGhjJ 17-12 ,fSEG ,a) jdGh HdG JQhO dG

.(2007 af /dG

:EG dH ~d UdG g fh

U Vhh j dG Gg U idG SSCG HdG ja UdH b~dG gG G~gL ,FdG

dG L NCG Y GUM j dG VGSG iQ SSCG jQdG e JG Y aG Yh ,QYG

dDG Yh ,FdG G dDG Y AYCG ZdG YCG Gh~YS jdG edG baCG ,FdG

Qc~dG UHh ,dG jd dG Y~dG I~Mh Xeh FQ

KdG edG baCd dG Y~dG G~Mhh ,Andy Reisingerjh Ld YO e e~b

OG~YE YO e e H GVG dG feCG Xe jdG fh GNEGh

d I~G CG efHh jG OUQCd dG G h~dG de ge e e~b h dG feCG Y~d

d SG

e e~b jQWEG bJGh AYCG h~dG eM L

d SG h~dG gee e~b cQG Gh AYCG h~dG eM L Y cQG AGG YO e H b Y ge

.dG GQhOh YLG aSGh ,dG

R.K Pachauri Qc~dGG H G dh~dG eG dG FQ

Renate Christ IQc~dGG H G dh~dG eG dG IJS

vi


9/110

jG

iii j~J

v ~

1 SdG fd e

23 dG jdG25 e~e29 1 VG35 2 VG43 3 VG55 4 VG63 5 VG71 6VG

aG75 J ee EG UdGh ~G dO - hCG76 G Fb - ```fdG90 We G~dG GQOEG ;dG G~MdG ;FdG RedG ,GG - ```ddG92 dDG Fb - ````HGdG94 VGSH Geb jdG jQGh VG Fb - eG

100 SdG - SOdG102 G H G dh~dG eG dG Ye - ```HdG

:2007 G JdG jdG


10/110

dG jdG Gg e G QOG

.Ia c NBG { } SdG H OJ jdG Gg cP OGe EG LG GQTEG

jdG Gg VGeh e~e WCGh ,hG~Lh ,TCGh ,GHCG EG J SdG fd e LGG.dG

ddGh dGh hCG edG baCG ge EG LGG J ,dG VGeh dG jdG Gg e~e hjdG Gg dEG ~j dG G H G dh~dG eG dG jQJ e Zh HGdG dG jJ

.f dG jdG GHCG e iNCG GHCG EG hCG ,dG

.jQdG e IO~ GHCGh a EG bQCG JhddG dG jJ :g dG jdG Gg e G iNCG jQdG

d dG dGh hRhCG W jM CH UG jdG


11/110

:2007 G JdG jdG

SdG fd e

G H G dh~dG eG dG H VG J

/dG jJ12-17 ,fSEG ,a) G H G dh~dG eG d jdGh HdG edG G boCG dG ,G Gg

edG jdG ge IOQGdG FdG dG ~Y LhCGh LSG CH SQ dG Y aGh dG dG ,(2007 af.HGdG dG jJ

:g~YCG dG IOG EG GOSGLenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson, William Hare, Saleemul

Huq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno,

Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry,

Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravindranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci,

Stephen Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart, Dennis

Tirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe


12/110

SdG fd e

2

``````e~e

KdG edG baCG JLCG dG dG EG dG jdG Gg ~jee If jdG Gg jh .G H G dh~dG eG d HdG

.d HGdG dG jJ e NCG AG j QYH G J Yec VJ Y WG G Gg dhJ dG YVG

baCG Vh dG SSCG jQdG h dG jdG Gg d.KdG edG

gQKBGh G IOUG GdG -1

GOjdG ~UQ e VGh h~j c ,a d L NG dG QGMG H,dG AfCG Gh AGdG IQGM LQO Se IOGdG SG JQGh ,SGh f Y dGh ~G HhP Y a

{1-1} .(G 1- dG) dG S iVG IY KG GdG Ia GS e S IY i~MEG JIQGG LQO Sb GhOCG S S IY KG MCG e (2006-1995)FG Id G G CG cdH j~Lh .(1850 e) dG dGe cCG ~j 1je LQO [0.920.56] 0.74 dq~e ddG (2005-1906) YOQGdG (2000-1901) je LQO [0.8 0.4] 0.6 d~e ddG HG G IOjdGh .(SdG fd e 1 dG ) ddG dG jJ IOjdG ~eh dG AfCG L SGh f Y Ie IQGG LQOLQO IOjdG fch .dG ``ddG VdG N Gc dP e cCGe 4 dGh 2 dG) G e SCG HdG WG IQGM

.{2-1 ,1-1} .(SdG fde - 1 dG ) QGMd aGa dG S ie JQG eCGhY e dG S i dG SG JQG ~a (SdG fd2.4] 3.1 Se ~h ,jS /e [2.3-1.3] 1.8S e ~ 1961

HhPh ,QGG SdG dP SCGh ,1993 Y e jS /e [3.8 EG~H j h .dG ~G FUh ,dG GdGh ,j~G QfCGhCG j~Y aNG j 2003h 1993 H e Id SCG ~G c GPEG e

{1-1} i~e ~HCG G IOjRdG) .~Gh dG bQ OUG dG jCG QGMG aGjhQbCG L dG fdG VJ PEG ,(SdG fd e 1-dG dG jdG ~G Me Se CG 1978 Y e YdGe ~je e ,~MGdG ~dG % [3.3 EG 2.1] 2.7 ~ J ~b dGQfCG eCGh .~MGdG ~dG % [9.8 EG 5.0] 7.4 H dG a dGf SG VfG G~T ~a dG AdGh G j~G

.{1-1} .VQCG IdG

bdG AGLCG IRQH IOjR dG OGR 2005h 1900 H e IdG hSBGh SBG Th HhQhCG T h HG jeCGh ddG jeCG eAGLCGh jaCG Gh ,SG dGh ,MdG fG H ,SdG

KCJ dG MG J CG 2Lj ,dG ~dG Yh .SBG L e.{1-1} .dG e OGR ~b H

VfG ~T ~b VG eY G J CG G~L LG eh,HdG We e dG QX f h IOQdG dGh jCG O~Y~b IQGG Le A CG LG eh .IQG dGh jCG O~Y OGR HM bh f CGh ,HdG We e b P e cCG Qj UCGY e ~T ~b SCH dG CGh ,OGR ~b WG e jdG dG

.{1-1} .3dH YJQG QdG ie JQG M O~Y IOjR 1975

FGSG UYCG cM I~T IOjR h~M Y IOUe dOCG gg h~`M Y `dOCG CG Z ,jJ 1970 Y e WCG T jdG OG~YCG VGh G ~Lj h .IOh~ iNCG We IOjdGg c LCG WCG gG ~j~ dG a ,FGSGUYCd

.{1-1}.1970 d HdG IdG UHh ,UYCGVQCG IdG f IQGG LQO Se j CG G~L LjhIa iCG e YCG jdG dG e fdG dG AKCG dGYCG j CG Ljh ,INCG FG GdG K S N

.{1-1}

.j~J bCG Y VG S1300

`dG i~e Ye ~j~dG CG G e h ac GQdG 4IOUG dOCG VJhJQH UN ,bEG NG GdH dM KCJ dG fCG

.{2-1} .IQGG LQOdG GdG J CG dG e dY LQO Y kMG G e~Yh ,j~G GdG Mh O~Y e OGR ~b I~G VQCGh ~GhH GJ EG OCGh ,dG HdGh G We VQCG K

.{2-1} .HG dGh dG dG LdjCG dG

fCG H J CG dY LQ~H bKe MG G eh G jdG IhQPh jG ~jG H jCG KCJ ~b LdhQ~dG,dGh j~G QfCG e G J dG QfCG e ~j~dG HdG

QGG dH GdGh QfCG QGMG CG dG QKBG dhW c.{2-1} .G Yfh

ed G QdG CG Mj ,VQCG LdjEG fCG hG GGh dG a J dG MG f fGh HdGj~M QGMG IgH dG e G~L dY LQO Y Jj ~YUh b dG Jj HdG G fCGh jdG fCG e dG h .~dGdG e dY LQ~H SCGh dGdGh ddG Iah dGh bdG,~G AdG GJ e H j eh G IQGM LQO JQH

.{2-1} .GQh~dGh ,cCG jeh ,MGh

FG 89 e cCG QGMd zHSG{ d bG G aGjh

75 e IPNCe S 29000 Y gO~Y ~jj dG ~UdG fH SS edG) .FMCGh FjdG fCG e ~j~dG c J bh J SGQO e f ~Lj ,dP e ZdG Yh .(SdG fd e -2

CG IQhdH dP j h .IQcG dG 5% H f hCG IOjR feEG g CG j Ggh j~J aCG Y 90% OJ j f EG J ae Sb H IOQGdG bQCG 1.j~J aCG M Ke dG ~Y bf

jdG Gg e~e dG ~Y eoe G QWEG Mhe dG GP Gh .dG ~Yh dG LQO M I se GJ EG J Fe MCH YG dG 2.dG

fCH Jh bEG dG f Yh dG S ie JQG Se Y ~j G~j~T YJQG dG S ie JQGh .G J Y Tf Z fC edG UYCG ASH 3.ee Le Id YS c IOUG dG S ie b e 1% J dG dG dG Y

.1970 Y CG~J dG IdG e IaGG fdG Y Y Gc GOYG ~J 4


13/110

SdG fd e

3

0.5

0

0.5-

50

0

50-

100-

150-

4-

4

0

14.5

14.0

13.5

40

36

32

2000195019001850

(QRCG dH) QGh ~G S W QdG i dG SGh () .dG IQGG LQ~d dG SG (CG) IOUG GdG .SdG fd e - 1 dGIdG d HG SG Y Sb f J bhdG Lh .jHCG /f -SQe /QGPBG Id dG IdG f dG AdGh () (MCG dH) YdG QbCG fHhdG ~Y LhC eT d W IQ~G dG ~Y bf f EG a G WG eCG .jdG dG FGh~dG M j~dG dG Se dG G h .1990-1961

.{1-1 dG} () edG Sd Wh ( h CG) ahG

dG IdG f a dG AdGh QdG ieh IQGG LQO GJ

IQ~fh IOUG GdH UG HOCGh fd GG RGdG.{3-1 h2-1} .edG G~dG RGdG dd Xe

J bEG G d NCG QKBG Af MG Se K gH e ~j~dG HU e ZdG Y jdG dG dG

{2-1}.NG Z cGh dG

j e J dG IQG`G ` LQO GOjdG Q`KBG Q`KBG g eh.{2-1}

e dG dG ddG VdG N Y GMCGh YGQdG IQGOEG=GVG fCG ~Jh G HdG UG YGQR e VQCG IdG

.aBGh FGG H HdG

IQGG Y LdG adG ~e e jdG dG fGL H =,WG H j~G VGeCG bGf Y FQdG GdGh ,HhQhCG

SGh ddG VdG N ~Y SG J dG dG Mh.VQCG Id dG dG

dG a dGh dG e) dG dG jdG fCG H =VjdG e) `dCG L e G WG dch (~Gh

.(G


14/110

SdG fd e

4

2004-1970 VQCG S IQGM LQO `ah FMCGh FjdG fCG `a GdG

FMCG fCGh (MdG dGh ;LdhQ~dGh ;I~G VQCGh ~Gh dG) FjdG fCG fH S G GdG bGe J .SdG fd e-2

dGf e dDe fdG e Ya S AfG ~bh .2004 Y EG1970 Y e IdG dG AGdG IQGM LQO GJ e (HdG FGh jdGh VQCG FMCG fCG)e hCG1990 dG G IdG e IPNCe-1 :ddG jG fdG g aSGh .SGQO577 f e I~e fH S80000 f UCG e dPh fdG e S 29000e) SGQO75 e g fdG SS NCG ~bh .SGQ~dG J e gO SGQO OQGdG d ah gG ~MCG e GJ Jh-3 ;bCG Y eY20 Ia Jh-2 ; g~Ha AdG WG eCGh (HhQhCG SGQO e AL S28000 f e fdG e S29000 f Y SdG g h ,(ddG dG jJ f e Q~U I~j~L SGQO70e jG dG Jh (hCG dG) IRQH GJ J dG fdG SS O~Y LEG22 SdG e WCG OQJh .IQGG LQ~d e j~d J IOUe Ne fH Y :dG dG Yh () ,dG WGh ,G~jRfh ,dGSGh ,SBGh ,jaCGh ,HhQhCGh ,JdG jeCGh ,ddG jeCG :jQdG WG (CG) (dG dG) QGMG aGJ SdGeG hj a (dG WGh ,ddG jeCG e) bEG dG WCG IOQGdG SGQ~dG OG~YCG eCG .dG dGh ,HdG G fh dG dGh ,VQCG dGJ SGh Me jdG GdG bGe CG Z .HdG G fh dG dH G bQCG J dG WG ASH WG Y IaGG bQCG C ,dG

.{1-2 dG}.jG Y

89%94%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%100%98% 96% 91% 94% 94% 90%90%92%94%

3 55 4 55 53 119

NAM LA EUR AFR AS ANZ PR* TER MFW** GLO

5 2 106 8 6 1 85 765 120 24 7645

28.115 28.586 28.671

3.52.01.00.2

2004-1970

-0.2-1.0

1-30

31-100

101-800

801-1200

1201-7500

7,5001


15/110

SdG fd e

5

dG SCG -2

dG jG AgCGh a~dG GRZ GcJ Y CGJ dG GdGdG bdG RGJ J dG TEGh ,VQCG AdG Yh ,G

.{2-2} NG

e jdG fCd f a~dG GRZ e dG KfG OGR ~deY H e 70% IOjdG g f a ,YdG IQdG b e Me

.{2-1} 5.(SdG fd e -3 dG) 2004h 1970OGR ~bh .CG jdG a~dG GRZ gCG HdG ~cCG K jheCGh .2004h 1970 eY H e jJ 80% H jdG RdG Gg KfGI~Mh c EG dH HdG ~cCG K Kf LCG jW VfG

.{1-2} .2000 Y ~H fG ~a IO sQG bdG G~Mh eXe IOjR RhdG ~cCGh ,Gh ,HdG ~cCG K GcJ OGR ~bhRhJh ,1750 Y e jdG Wd f dG iG dG dGh YdG IQdG b ,H dG dG BG Gc GcdG g

.{2-2} .dG BG J dG aG j~G dG e g~j~GAL 379) HdG ~cCG d 2005 Y cdG je eCGhiG Gc Rh ~a (dG GAL 1774) Gh (G dG GOjdG iJh .VG S 650000 I~G IdG dG

QMCG ObdG G~SG EG SSCG H HdG ~cCG K GcJ eh .bCG H dh dP IRQH ge G~SG qdG SCG ahCG G Tf G cJ IOUG IOjdG J CG G~L LGG OjORG ~e fG ~bh .QMCG ObdG G~SGh YGQdG YQOG LEG) KfG LEG AHh j f Y dG FGhCG e

IOjdG LJ H .IdG g AKCG jJ HK (jdGh dG.{2-2} .SSCG YGQdG EG RhdG ~cCG cJ1750 e jdG fCG KCG U QYG G~L dY K gh

.{2-2} .6QGMG Igd SdG IQGG LQO Se IOUG IOjdG e CGG~L LG ehGRZ GcJ IOUG IOjdG EG Lj jdG dG e e~M ~b CG H GRQH GQGMG CG LG eh .7CG jdG a~dGASH) ~M Y IQb d Se H VG G Ia

.{4-2} .(SdG fd e -4 dG) (HG dG~MCG ~b fcdGh dG GKCdG LEG j CG LG eh

JGJh QGMd IOUG CG c h ,VG G IOhHFb HdG GJ h .CG jdG GKCdG J P SGH EGhO bf Y IQGG LQO IOUG GdG hYh Ic

.{4-2} .GRdG

CG jdG a~dG GRd dG KfG

KfG LEG e CG jdG a~dG GRZ f ()2004h1970 eY He CG jdG a~dG GRd dG jdG KfG (CG) .SdG fd e -3 dGdGREG J LGG) HdG ~cCG d ac 2004 Y CG jdG a~dG GRZ KfG LEG e G YdG f () .HdG ~cCG K ae M e2004 Y

.{2-1 dG} .(GMCG

28.7

35.6

39.4

44.7

49.0

1970

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000 2004

1.1%

2.8%

25.9%

13.1%

7.9%

19.4%

13.5%

17.4%

56.6%

14.3%

17.3%

CO2

2.8%

7.9%

I~G CG bJG Y J dG GRdG gh ,jdG ~jQa SG~Sh ,QdH G HchQ~dGh ,HchQahQ~dGh ,RhdG ~cCGh ,Gh ,HdG ~cCG K EG J 5I~G CG bJG HEG hTh J b G~SH dPh ,S Fe N dG QGMG G ge N e g a~dG GRZ Rh Sjh .G J CH jQWEG

.G J CH jQWEGb e Me e jdG fCG Y LdG KCG U jh .~jJ EG jG AgCG GOjdG KCG U H VQCG S IQGM IOjR EG a~dG GRZ GOjdG 60.06+] 0.12+) .W jQGMEG GKCG EG J Gj~dG H dG TEG GdG Ea ,fQG S Yh .(HG G Gh [2.4+ EG 0.6+] 1.6+) jQGMEG GKCG YdG IQdG

.(HG G Gh ]0.30 EG.dM ge EG G dG ~Y M H ~j 7


16/110

SdG fd e

6

hCG jdG hCG dG GKCdG eEG ~J dG NG PdG IcG FH Gh HdG S IQGM XG GdG fQe .SdG fd e -4 dG.1950 EG1901 e IdG HG SG EG fh ~dG e He dG SdG e (OSCG G) 2005EG1906 e ~dG IOUG MG Se Jh .cG~SG Y J ,Ne P N Ic Y IY d 95% - 5 G AbQdG G Jh .FG 50 Y f J dG fG dG EG J G Gh.jdGh dG GKCdG ~J Ne LP Y HQCG Ic Y58 `d95% - 5 G a AGG G eCG .cGdGh dG dG Y LdG a dG GKCdG

.{5-2 dG}

qjQdGh dG IQGG LQO J

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

20001950

1990

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

GKCJ g CG ddG dG jJ Qh~U e ~M dG ~ dG jfGL d IQGG LQO S e e cCG g e EG ~ Xe jH

{2-4} .iNCG Ne{2-4} :jdG GKCdG EG

dG dG AKCG QdG S ie aQ SCG fCG

G~L LjjdG dG eUGY GQe Y dH KCa jdG CG J SCG fCG Lj

IQGG LQO CG J Yh aVEG jQG~e,IQGG a ~J dG dG IQGG LQO e OGR fCG Lj

IOQdG jCGh IOQdG dGhMeh ,IQGG Le Af W OGR fCG j~J bCG Y LjQGJ i~eh ,jdG dG S e H IKCG WG

~j~dG dG M

d c VG KdG OdG GW CG dG QGMG CG LG ehFjdG fCG e ~j~dG IOUG GdG e Y KCG

{4-2} .FMCGhIdG AfCG L ~j~dG QGMG We H G aGdG eCG

G fCG e ~j~dG XG IRQdG GdG bGe Hh VQCGI~H Ua g a dG dG EG ghY Ua Ea ,QGMG eH H LdG Y Fb SGQO H HQ ~bh .LdG Y G~LidG QGMG Hh FMCGh FjdG fCG IO~G HSG

{4-2} .CGQGMG EG ec GhY IOUG dG HSG hY dM Qjh,KCG SGQO e ~j~dG j dG I~G b H dPh CG dGeGY eSEGh ,bEG iG Y dG NG dG OjORGh

{4-2} .SGQ~dG e~J dG fG dG jOh~h ,Ne Z


17/110

SdG fd e

7

.dG jdG Gg 3 VG OQGdG zKfG gjQS Y UG jdG{ G QWEG fG ,H UG jdG IOQGdG KfG gjQd T Y Wd 8G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG Y d TG M e Y j~G SGQ~dG J M dG SdG N Ne SS Y J gjQdG gh

.Jc cJhHh.dG gjQS KfG GQe 5 dG j 9

QKBGh bG NG dG -3

e d dG SdG X fCG Y Ic dOCGh c aGJ gOjORG j S ,eG~G dG SQ e dH j eh G J

{1-3} .eOdG dG OdG a~dG GRZ e dG KfG

eG dG Vh idG KfG gjQS Y UG jda,KfG gjQS Y UG jdG) G H G dh~dGH a~dG GRZ e dG KfG IOjR h~M bj (2000-5 dG) 2030h 2000 edG H (HdG ~cCG K ae) 90%-25bdG N Y dZ jQMCG ~obodG AHh ,(SdG fd edG M e gjQdG J Kh .~H eh 2030 Y M dG

{3-1} .9,8Kfd aVEG J J G~Y ~MCG gjQSYCG ~ hCG dG ~H dG a~dG GR`Z `KfG QGSGhG f I~j~Y GJ EG ODjh QGMG e G~je j ~b ecCG dP j CGG~L LG eh ,jdGh OG dG AKCG dG,SdG fd e -1 h~G) jdG dG Y c

{1-2-3} .(SdG fd e -5 dGh

j QGMG LQO YJQG eOdG G~dG ~j CG bG egjQS e Y H ~MGdG ~dG je LQO 0.2 fcJ je HoCG d Mh .H UG jdG IOQGdG KfGbj ,2000 Y je ~Y Ie jG AgCGh a~dG GRZ LdP ~Hh .~Y c je LQO 0.1 f j QGMG JQG h~M

e e gjQS Y ~jGe H IQGG LQO WSEG bS{2-3} .KfG gjQSeY (SdG fd e -1 h~G) WSEG f jhdG bdGh dG ~Y LQ~d dH dh ,ddG dG jJ eCG EG SSCG dH jdG dP Hj cCG a IQGG LQ~dG IQhO ibCG G~Je EG j MG PdG ShCG dG~cCG d Gh VQCG UeG e j QGMGh .HdG -CG jdG KfG f ~jj ,G dG OLG HdGH Xe jJ ja YdG Gg Ib eCGh .G dG bdG

{3-2 !1-2-3} .PdGEG ODJ dG G QKBG H a I~j~dG jOh~G EG Gfh

j~J aCG hCG LQCG qj jdG Gg Ea dG S ie JQG

(aVEG NG Sd eT Z) 2100h 2000 edG H a~dG GRZ Kf gjQSVQCG S IQGM LQ~d WSEGh

VJ gjQS S :aVEG NG SdG Z (HdG ~cCG K ae) a~dG GRd dG KfG:idG MdG .SdG fd e -5 dGdH G G) (KfG gjQH UG jdG Qh~U ~H) GNCG IQG gjQdG fdG G fh (fe N) UG jdG gjQS e dGO

:dG MdG .QdG GRZh ,RhdG ~cCGh Gh ,HdG ~cCG K J KfGh UG jdG f ~H IQOdG gjQdG f ec G G VJh .(OedGNCJh .jdG dG IcG Pd GQGSG gQYH B1h ,A1Bh ,A2 gjQdG VQCG S QGMG Se gh P I~Y e Y Se EG edG G JdG dG GQh~dG P IcG Y EG j EGh jQS a igdG G eCGh .jG AgCGh a~dG GRd LCG Ib KfG jCG QYG WSEG g(e N c ec N) Gj~dG aCG EG dG dG MdG G G Jh .2000 Y je ~Y G dG GcdG J M ,Gh iGIdG EG LJ f LQO g IQGG LQO Lh .2099 - 2090 edG H Id dPh ,UG jdG gjQS e dG~dG dG gjQd qG LG dG EGh

{3-2h3-1 dG} .1999-1980

A1B

B1

A2

B2

2000

(80%)

A1FI

A1T

2100 2000 1900 2100 2000

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

1.0-

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

eqyrGtCO


18/110

SdG fd e

8

bf EG UJ d JGP jdH dG ~Y M ddG jdG hJ dh . 2099-2090 IdG EG jdG Gg WSEG J H ,2100 Y EG ddG dG jJ WSEG J 10.SdG fd e 1 h~G IOQGdG H T

.ddG OGG fG ,WCG LCd be Y Wd 11

(SdG fd e -1 h~G) OQjh .JQG Gd bCG G~M hCG,102099-2090 IdG QdG i dG JQG S WSEGLQO Y J WSEG gh .PdG EG ~J WSEG ghdG edG QKBG h HdG - G IQhO G~J G dG ~YdG QYG Vj Gdh ,j~G FdG a~J GdG K~Z .dG S ie JQ ib Oh~M H bdG idGdGh ~fjL ~G a~dG ~jGJ ge Y J WSEG CG j hCG ~jj ~b dP dh ,1993-2003 Id IOUG ~H HG

{1-2-3} 11.G

CG CH ddG dG jdG IQcG J e YCG K BG ~LJ,jdG CG J a ,iNCG bEG dGh QGMd G

{2-2-3} .dG ~Gh aG gGdG fGL Hh ,dGh

:{2-2-3} :j e bEG GdG JddG VdG N e ~Yh HdG a ~TCG Y QGMG j G T e AGLCGh HG G fOCG ~M EG j H dGe - 6 dG) GNCG ~UQ dG gd GQGSG e WCG

(SdG fde HhdG Y IOjRh ,~G AdG e Me TfG ahh ;QdG a j~G bdG Me Jh ,~dG FGO VGQCG

H fEa ,UG jdG gjQS ~J dG WSEG ddG ~G c j Oj jdGh OG dG e NCG AG.dG dG dG NGhCG

LGh ,aG qG gGX bh QJ IOjR h~M G~L LG e.~j~dG dGh ,IQG

dG ~Jh ;jQG~G UYCG I~T IOjR h~M LG e.jQG~G UYCG O~d dG VfH

G jQG~G G T J dG UGdG GQe CGh ,dGh ,jdG GJ j ,ddG dG G

.IQGG LQOCG LG eh dG VdG N ~Y dG OGOj CG G~L LG eg QGSG dP h ,jQG~G T HdG We e j

.j~M ~UQQfCG jL OGOj CG bj dG e H fCHJe KgjQG~G WG H h) dG VdG N ~Y G aGJh idGh SdG VdG N ~Y aG WG H j CGh ,(WdGWG e ~j~dG CH dG e dY LQO jCG gh .jQG~G WGGh ,I~G jdG Zh ,SG dG VM e) MdG Td f G OQGe f S (jRGdG T Th ,jaCG

.{5-3 T ,1-3-3} .G

dG e G~je ddG dG jJ Qh~U e jLCG dG SGQ~dG MJCGd G ~Gh dH G QKBG Mh bd G

.{2-3-3 ,1-3-3} .G

eG g Y eCG ~j :SdG fd G -7 dG

dG ~jGH QKBG ~jGJ jdG MdG VJh .YdGh fCd I~j~GdG Q jCG GKCa GQ~G bdGh G eCG .IQGG LQO {1-3-3} .(dG MdG)

QKBG H Y eCG SdG fd e 2 h~G OJh. W G

{3-1 h~G} jdGh OG dG jf dG S ie JQGh dG dG QGMd G SG:SdG fd e 1 h~G

dG S ie JQG IQGG LQO J dG(1999 - 1980 `H fQe 2099 - 2090 ) (O)(CG)(1999 - 1980 `H fQe 2099 - 2090 je LQO)

PdG Y Fb i~e LdG i~e j~J aCG~G a~J jdG ej~dG GdG J dG

d HdG GcdGaGe Z 0.9 0.3 0.6 ()20000.38 0.18 2.9 1.1 1.8 B1 jQdG0.45 0.20 3.8 1.4 2.4 A1T jQdG0.43 0.20 3.8 1.4 2.4 B2 jQdG0.48 0.21 4.4 1.7 2.8 A1B jQdG0.51 0.23 5.4 2.0 3.4 A2 jQdG0.59 0.26 6.4 2.4 4.0 A1F1 jQdG

:Me.~UdH G OdGh ~dG M e jeh eg JJ Je P e IPNCe LG dG ~Y bfh Gj~dG aCG EG IQGG LQO J ( CG )

.g~Mh Gh G d dG GQh~dG P e e 2000 d HdG jdG ()GRZ Y dG G YTEG KDd HG HdG ~cCG d aG jdG GcdGh .UG jdG e qdGO gjQS S g YCG IQcG gjQdG c (),UG jdG IOQGdG dG~dG VdG gjQdG (hCG edG jdG ~YCG dG ddG dG jJ e 823 U fG) 2100 Y jG AgCGh CG jdG a~dG

.GdG Y G GAL 1550h ,1250h ,850h ,800h ,700h ,600 Q`J `dG G`cdG g A1Flh ,A2h ,A1Bh ,B2h ,AIT! B1 gjQdG iCG.je LQO 0.5 VCG 1899-1850 IdG dG f Y dh .1999-1980 IdG Y NG oj IQGG LQO dG (O)


19/110

SdG fd e

9

VQCG S QGM `aGG dG

gjQS e A1BjQd WSEG Se jG Jh .(2099-2090) jdGh iOG dG NGhCG dG IQGG LQ~d G GdG .SdG fd e :6 dG.{2-3 dG} .1999-1980 IdG EG J IQGG LQOh UG jdG

12G H G~j~T GKCJ WGh YdGh fCG KCJ CG Ljh{3-3-3}

{3-3-3} :YdGh fCG:IO~ LdjEG fCG

SM H G WGh ,ddG HdGh ,GQ~dG :VQCG -VfG H SG dG e LdjEG fCGh ;QGMd

dG j M jQG~G IG HdGh ;QeCG SIO~G dG H G Gh hfG :MdG -

FMCG Gh ,IO~G dG H fLG dG :jdG -QGMd SM H jdG j~G

h 13SdG VdG N ~Y aG WG H G OQGe ,dG dGh QeCG S GdG H aG jQG~G WG

~Gh dG HhP Y ~J dG WG hG aGJ dG H dG VdG N ~Y YGQdG

Gh dG S ie JQG N H G MdG fCG aG dG gGX e ~jGG

.f~G dG IQ~dG hP dG H jdG dG

{3-3-3} :WGfCG J dG G QGMG ~e JQG QKBG H dG dG jdG Gh dG

G d G QKBGh dG Y IQ~dG ~J H jaCG J QKB SSCG dGh dG VJ a j dG IdG QG

G GddG fdG adG H jaCGh SBG idG Ghd~dG ,UGdG gh ,dG S ie JQ VdG feEG JQGh

.jdG fdGh

VJ ,JG N~dG GP J M a ,iNCG We NGO h

dch ,Wd UN H (dG Qch WCGh AGdG e) dG H.{3-3-3} .iNCG fCGh WG H

G OjORG EG 1750 Y e CG dG HdG UeG iOCGiODjh .I~``Mh 0.1 H dG dG ``LQO Se ~``Jh G. dG e ~je EG G dG HdG ~cCG K GcJ ~jGJh~M bJ UG jdG gjQS SSCG Y FdG WSEGh0.35 h 0.14 QG~ Y G S LQO Se VfGd IOUG QKBG CG ZQh .jdGh OG dG i~e Y I~Mh

d jQ~dG dG CG EG ,~H KJ G dG Ge) dG Qd fG G FdG Y S QKBG d J CG bj{4-3-3} .d HdG dGh (fLG dG

.dG Y IQ~dGh ,SGh ,G d G ~Gh bdGh G EG dHh ,dG GP G HOCG Y AGG M SSCG Y O~M 12.MdG Th MdG WG a 13


20/110

SdG fd e

10

dG IQGG LQO Se H JG QKBG Y eCG(ObG -YLG QGh ,IQGG LQO J fh ,dG i~e H QKBG J)

S ieh) G Gd G dG QKBd VJ eCG :dG MdG .dG dG QGMd oG SH JG QKBG Y eCG:SdG fd e -7 h~GAGOdG Gh .jdGh OG dG dG dG IQGG LQO Se JQG e H JG (U dd j M ,G dG HdG ~cCG Kh ,dGAH JG jdG QGMG ie EG J NG~c dG jCG WGh YdG ASCG OJh .IQGG LQO JQG e J dG QKBG EG a G dG eCG ;QKBG H HJe dG eCGh .B2h ,B1h ,A2h ,A1Fl UG jdG gjQS QWEG G G EG f G d aVEG QKBG a fdGh G IQ~d qdG OdG eCGh .e KCGqG QGMd LG bdG EGh j~J aCG EG G Gh dG J :dG MdG .dY G ac dG je Jh .Gj~dG g Q~j a G J

{6-3 dG} .1999-1980IdH fQe2099-2090Id dG dGq~dG gjQdG VGZC

1999-1980 2099-2090

6.4C

5.4C

0 1 2 3 4 5

1999-1980

50 1 2 3 4

30%

30%

40%~15%~

50 1 2 3 4

2080-20004.2 40%


21/110

SdG fd e

11

{2-3-3} .WSEG H Wd bG QKBG H Y eCG :SdG fd e -2 h~G

...````HJ

.G J Y TdG FG OLEG JQ T e 250h 75 H e Vj CG bG e ,2020 Y H fEG eCGh .QeCG Y ~J dG YGQdG UG FG 50 EG J H VfG G~dG H ~j S ,2020 Y H dG KCdG ~jj Ggh .jaCG G~dG e ~j~dG G~j~T VJ d Vj CG ba ,AGdG EG UdG feEG dP ,YGQdG

.jdG AS e bJh FGdG eCG YJ eCGh .dG Ic G MdG WG Y G dG S ie JQG KDS jdGh OG dG jf bh

.LEG G dG e 10%h 5% H hGJ f Y J CG a dGhGJ H jaCG MdG Th MdG WG Me ~jJ CG bJ WSEG Ea ,NG gjQdG e Y ahh .2080 dG H 8%h 5 H

Lh ,bTh ,HLh ,SBG Sh HdG G aGJ jdGh OG dG N H j CG WSEG H bG e .idG QfCG VGMCG UN ,bT

WG cC VY bT Lh ,bTh ,SBG L dH G idG Ghd~dG We UN ,MdG WG S .idG Ghd~dG H QfCG a H dch ,jdG fdG OjORG H

G SdG H JJ dGh dGh dG OQGG d J dG dG G J Yj CG WSEG H bG e .jObG dGh dGh jdG

SEG Ve H IadG ~eh WG VGeCH HUEG ~e IOjR ,bT Lh ,HLh SBG T ~j CG bG e .WSEG H LdhQ~dG IQh~dG bG GdG EG dP ijh ,Gh fdH SSCG JG

jL{ a ,LdjEG dG bGG H FMCG dG Ic IQN 2020 Y H ~ CG WSEG H bG e

.zHhJ jhh ~fjc{h zjQ jQHbdG WG Hh ~KQf h ,dGSCG Lh T 2030 dG H FG eCG ce ~J CG WSEG H bG e .G~jRf e

AGLCG H h ,dGSCG Th L e LGGh YGQdG fEG 2030 Y H j CG WSEG H bG e iNCG WG H dhCG ~FGa J WSEG H bG e fCG EG .FGGh G OjORG H G~jRf e bdG

.G~jRf

EG G~jRfh dGSCG We H dG dG dGh MGdG jJ 2050 dG H ODj CG WSEG H b G e .MdG fdGh UGdG JGJh I~T IOjRh dG S ie JQG W be

N ~jGJ dG QKBG Jh .HhQhCG dG UCGh OQGG ~U Y bEG aNG e G J ~jj CG bG e .(dG S ie JQGh UGdG H) dG OjORGh MdG fdG JGJ OjORGh LG NG~dG fdG h~M

f J) GfCG Ic IQNh ,jdG MdGh i~G AdG Jh ,j~G QfCG LGJ G WG LGJ S .(JG KfG gjQS M ,2080 dG H 60% EG WG H

J e gh ,(Gh IQGG LQO JQG) G J H HhQhCG L GMCG iOJ CG WSEG H bG e

LfEGh ,dG MdGh ,FG bdG feEGh ,G aJ bJ EG G J ODj CG bj c ,G d VY dM.Y H UG.FdG FGG JGJh G Le H dG WG e G J ~jj CG jCG WSEG H bG e

EG HdG e H JG VfGh IQGG LQO YJQG dG e H ODJ CG WSEG H bG e MdG WG ~Lj dG JdG AdG M EG e j Sh .hReCG T fadH FGSG Hd jQ~dG G~SG

.MdG T Wd JdG AdG.JdG jeCG I~j~Y jQG~e We GfCG VGfG T FMCG dG Ic IQN h~M N g

Y S bGY j ,YGQdG fGG LfEG dch G UG H LfEG J CG WSEG H bG e CG WSEG H bj ,Y LHh .d~G WG jdG a U OGOJ CG WSEG H bG eh .FGdG eCG

.(Se K) G N e fj jdG SdG O~Y OGOj,idG Sd G aGJ Y Gc GKCJ j~G QfCG GhRh dG CG GdG KDJ CG WSEG H bG e

.bdG ~dJh ,YGQdGh

VfGh ,jdG fdG IOjRh ,dG cGdG VfG HdG G QGMG j CG WSEG H bG e .G~FGR jRJ YRG FG OQGG Y adG bJh ,dG a~dG dG YGQdG U LEG IOjR EG iODj G ~e G qJ dG Gg e hCG OdG ~J CG WSEG H bj UG Lh L j~ QX WSEG H bG eh .iNCG EG e e aNG e dh ,20%h 5% H hGJ H

.aH ~J Fe QOe Y ~J dG jdG UG hCG ,d SG IQGG LQO YCG e jdGach G Le O~Y OjORG gh ~dG e G~je qM L dM VJ dG ~G dG Gg AKCG LGJ CG b G e

.dH IQV QKBG J MG e ,J~eh.dGh dG e YJ dG GJ QKBG H dG e ~je EG MdG dGh G VS

jaCG

SBG

G~jRfh dGSG

HhQhCG

JdG jeCG

ddG jeCG


22/110

SdG fd e

12

S ie JQGh aG jG gGdG I~Th JGJ ODj CG bj{5-3-3} .jdGh dG fCG J e S QKBG EG dG

gGXh Yb Y eCG SdG fd e 3 h~G OQj.IQ ae

hd dG S ie JQGh CG dG QGMG j CG bG eJG~Jeh NG dG bJ dG edG GdG EG Gf eOb

{3-2-3} .a~dG GRZ GcJ J iL GPEG M

dG d HG (hb I~Y) LCG jdG Q~G QGMG eCGhdG Va HGdG dG jJ ddG edG jdG gO~M dG dG

.SdG fd e 8 j~G dG QfG j CG WSEG H bG ehdG PdGh .2100 dG ~H dG S ie JQG j ~fjL

JQGh eJ GhR z~fjL{ j~G dG GhR Y VJQGMG Se H GPEG QeCG S f dP AGL e dG S ieje LQO 4.6 h 1.9 H hGJ dG IOjdG dG B GRhe dG~fjL IQGM LQO eCGh .YdG IQdG b e Me H fQe~G d Y ~SG dG d He a G HGEG ~dG G ee J dGh ,S 125 000 b fG idG NCGYJQGh ,dG VQCG j~G dG i~e J Y ~T fCG

{3-2-3} .QeCG 6h 4 H hGj dG S ie

J CG ,JWSEG H ,dG dG PdG SGQO bJhhO IOh``dG e LQO Y HG dG a j~G dG~jGJ H c M OGOj CG b Jh SGh f Y S HhPZ e GPEG j~G dG aU IQN bh ` fCG Z .dG S

{3-2-3} .j~G dG c RGJ Y ~d ej~dG jdG

````HJ :SdG fd e -2 h~G

GdGh ,dG ~Gh ,j~G FdGh ,j~G QfCG fh oS VfG g G FMCGh FjdG QKBG gCG SG fGGh ,j~dGh ,ILG QdG e FdG e ~j~dH IQV QKBG e aGj e e dG LdjEG fCG

.IdGJ Y TdG QKBG UHh , QKBG J CG WSEG H bG e Ea dG dG jdG d dH

.~Gh dG GMCG

.j~dG UCG dG Y Wh SSCG dG J QKBG Y IQdG QKBG J ~b NG LGG VfG f KCd VY dG e IO~ Hh LdjEG f J CG WSEG H bG e

.GfCG GhZ Lh J dG

SSCG dG O~j ,iNCG MdG WGh ,dGh ,UGdG ~eh ,dG e dG ie JQG b j CG bG e .jQG G YG~dG jG BGh WGh

dG VHEGh AWGdG OdG Gg TCG Y eCG eh ,G OQGG Y MGdG GMCG OJ KDj CG bG e .fLG

Gh jQdG Qc IdG QG e ~j~dG G OQGe J EG ,dG Gg e H ,G J ODj CG b G e .QeCG g ~J Ga AKCG Y dG d g~Y OQGG g J LQO EG dPh ,OdG

.ddGh SdG VdG N ~Y bGdG QG UHh ,NG~dG GfCG GhZ OGOJ CG bj ,IQGG LQO JQG eh

fd e 6 h~G) HGdG dG jJ ddG edG jdG gO~M dG dG dG d HG (hb I~Y) LCG jdG Q~G QGMG:SdG fd e 8 dGIdGh YdG IQdG b e Me H QGMG jJ GJ j Ggh ,SdG fd e 6h~H fQe SS LQO0.5bf QG~ IQGG LQO Se ~bh .(SdG2100 Y H ODJ dG a~dG GRZ KfG gjQS ah .hb H i~e Y RGdG ie e dG IQGG LQO Se j dG je e ~Yh .1999-1980H bj (eGh HGdG dG ,HdG ~cCG K ae e G GAL850h A1B (600hB1 UG jdG gjQS je e fQd Hb je ~Y dG EG eCGh .je LQO3 g G SM CG VGaG Yh dG bh dPh ,dG RGdG IQGM LQ~d IQ~G IOjdG e jJ %70h65 H e H qb dG PdG WSEG

{4-3 dG} .GcH RGdG IQGM LQO H G e fEa ,(SdG fd e 11 dG ,fdGh hCG dG) Gc fOCG je ~Y dG gjQS

HGdG dG jd ddG edG jdG gO~M dG dG dG a VGZC 1999-1980IdG EG dH GQ~e hb I~Y `a QGMG

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1999-1980

GdG

IdG QG

:Me,dY K hCG G~L dY K eEG Gj~dG g a dGh ,dG edG jdG Vh dG SdG fd G f e IPNCe OdG c Ea ,j e Z MGU jdG Gg cj e

Q~e EG dG edG jdG Vh idG S dG fd G jh .(WG ,YdG ,dG ,MGdG ,G ,LdjEG fCG ,YGQdG) Yd SfG j .dGh ,dG GQeh ,KfG gjQSh ,G J ~eh M H a jdG J dG QKBG bJh M eCGh .IQGG LQOh ,edG dGh ,Gj~dG


23/110

SdG fd e

13

~J eCG gh ,aG jG gGdGh G gGX GJ Y TdG G d G QKBG Y eCG:SdG fd e 3 h~GJh .dG Y IQ~dG GQJ hCG GJ CG QYG H eCG g NCJ .jdGh OG dG NGhCGh e M bf ~ WSEG EG

{2-3 h~G} hCG OdG IQcG gGdG EG dG OdG IOQGdG Gj~dG LQCG

dG QKBG hCG LG QKBG H EG CG idG QGMG ODj ~b{4-3} .G J Mh ~e Y bj dPh ,J

YJQG dG e j~G FdG e AL IQN J ~bh,MdG G SSCG GJ h~Mh ,GQeCG dG S ie QGh QfCG Gh d~H QKBG ~TCG j ,G VGQCd GrnZhi~e Y GdG g h~M WSEG H bG eh .G

S ie JQG JG OSG dh ,dG BG ~ eR{4-3} .edG e hb i~e Y dG

.a LQ dG QKBG H EG G J ODj CG LG ehb dG GfCG e jJ %30 EG 20 H e CH Se K ghOjORG Rh e GPEG VGfG cCG VJ VJ CG Lj BG MIdH fQe) je LQO 2.5h 1.5 H e dG IQGG LQO Se

:Me.jdH J dG UdG e ~je Y Wd ,hCG edG jdG jJ 7-3 h~G fG (CG

.Y c a GQGMG dGh jCG cCG (Le Id YS c IOUG dG e FG ~MGh YCG fCG Y O~jh .bEG dG fCG Yh dG S ie Se Y G dG S ie ~j (

.eejG Y bEG dG fCG GdG KCG j h LG IdG Ge Y 2100 d G dG S ie JQ dG SG ~jj ,ac gjQdG (O

.dG d aG

dG H G FdG QKBG Y eCG G Gh (CG)IgdGG ``````LQ CGG O S G Gd WSEG EGjdGh O```GgjQSG~SH

KfG

fCGh ,LGGh ,YGQdG{5-4 ,4-4} LdjEG

G OQGe{4-3}

fEG U{4-8 ,2-8}

Gh WGh YdG{5-4 ,4-7}

,VQCG Me e LQO cCG IOQH dh jCGdh ``jCG ,GO~```Y ``bCG h

GJGJ cCGh IQM

()OJ hCG I~cDe

G~L Le

G~L Le

Le

Le

(O)Le

dG dG O```jORGVfG ;IOh````H ````cCG``cCG dG ``dGGG J OjORG ;aO

WG dG VfGOLEG H aO cCGN O``````jORG ;QG``````G

IdG FGG

jJ ;dG J QGVCGY IQ~```dG ~``Yh ,`H`dGJ H VQCG Ma

H HdG

~``J ;````````VGQCG Q```g~```Jah Q````J /``````dG;TGG fh ;UGFGG f W OjORG

IdG

;UH J QG``VCGQTCd ```j`` dG A`````dEG

J QG```VCG ,(YbG).fLG dH

,Gh ,dG e HdG G Th

dG G OQGe Y QKBG;dG HhP Y ~JGOG~`èEG H Y Q``KBG

G

;G Y dG O``jORGG Yf ce

ddG Qc

Yf Y S Q``KBG;aGh dG G;````G GOG~`````èEG ````JIQ~f J G e

G

bf ShCG Fe OLEG

j dG AHdG fGedG G GOG~eEG

G aGJ f VfGG J H HdG

G

adG ~e VfGAG`` ``L ```è ` `j````````dGOd VdG VfG

H IadG N OjORGG H UN ,G,eG VGeCG hPhG h `````dG h

YLG

,I``à```dG ````N O`````jORGVG````èCGh ,```HUEGh d G h ``j ~``` G

j~Gh

h~``M ``W`` O````jORG;AGh AGdG fAS bh W OjORGW O``jORG ;jdG``VG`èC``H ```H`````ÙEG

AGdGh AH dG

``bh ``W` O`````jORG````H```````ÙEGh I````à`````dG

AH dG VGeCGh~H e HGVG ;AGdGh.e~dG

``bh ``W` O`````jORGH HUEGh IadG;fdG ````dGG dG Q``KBG

IdH

;a~d bdG Y dG VfGYf ~J ;~jdG Y dG OjORGFSh J J ;~G AGdGY QKBG ;~Gh dG H dG

jdG MdG

jdG UTCG IM Yf LGJihCe H IQG WG jdGh G Y QKBG ;Se

AGdGh

dGh IQdGh WG J: f dG H G hSSC G d G Y W VIQ``````N ;````````j```dGh ```j`````G

.G

YdGh WG e f~dJ MG LGJ ;GhIg ``````MG ;````F``G ``b````dG

dG

jdGh fdG AGL e dGUG eCdG cT b ;JdG

WG ~V dG HMG ;QNCd VG WGG IQNh ,dG Ig

dJ He MGdG jM dJ;VGQCG G~SG H MdGdGh ``` ```dG `````fG `````MGfdG jCG fG ;SSCG

.YCG jQG~G

/aGO Hf LQO YCGO`````jORG .````M ```L``èMe e JGdG

.VQCG

.dG dG O``jORGe JGdG O```jORG

.WG

O``jOR``H G ``KC``JG

fdG f OG~TGjQG~G

JQG h~M f ~jGJi```````è ````````èA SH) dG S

()edG


24/110

SdG fd e

14

Se IOjdG RhJ e~Y fCG EG PdG WSEG Jh .(1999-1980f VGfG f J ,jJ je LQO 3.5 dG IQGG LQO

{4-3} .dG AfCG L (qG GfCG e %70-40) IcdG ~j CG ,dG PdG IcG Y AH ,G~L LG eh;WCG G dG HfG GQh~dG GDWJ hdGh iOG

a IQGG LQO OGOJ CG WSEG H bG e fEa dP ehHfG GQh~dG ~j CG LJG~L ~G eh .HhQhCGh WCG G h .jdGh O` G dG AKCG Gc L e dG.bKe J dG HfG GQh~dG UCG WCG GdG JY GQh~dG Gg IGh IdG GdG QKBG J CG LG ehUeGh ,SCG ~Feh ,jdG LdjEG fCG LfEG GJAdGh ,G cCG GcJh ,HdG ~cCG d Gd G UeG h HdG GdG J Qh .Hd JdG

{4-3} .NG d G~Je HdG ~cCG

14dGh dG GQN -4

e bf ShCG dG dh ,dG GQN e SGh Y ~LJOh~Mh LGM gh .G d VdG e ~d e G dG

{2-4} .ec a ee Z GJ dJh

dG GMCG J dG G~MCG QKBG IQGOEG aM S dhHG dG HG~J aVEG HG~J PJG He j dP eh .Gh,WSEG H bG G Jh G d dG QKBG e ~dOdG hCG eOdG j~dG AKCG noj dG dG f Y dG Hgh .iNCG V H G J QKB VdG bj ~bh .eOdG KdG

IGhG ~Yh ,dGh ,dG NG QNCG Y e CJ dG,jObG dG gGh ,FGdG eCG G~fGh ,OQGG Y G{2-4} .R~jEG Ve e VGeCG QfGh ,YGdGh

.Oh~ Q~H a QL J g G J e dG Hhj e~Y UHh ,G J Lh dG j CG da

fd e -4 h~``G) ShCG Yb GQO``e U dGd Hb d I~j~Y GQN OLh dY K gh .(SdG.dG EG f Je I~FH hCG/h ,e H YdG H IOh~ J~Fah dG d dG Gj~dG Ea ,dP e ZdG Yh

{1-4 h~G ,2-4} .jd

d jObGh YLG dH Kh WJQG dG Y IQ~dG JJ{2-4} .G Hh ~MGdG G Jhe jRJ YRe

IQ~da .dG GAGLEG dah J e ~ LGG e Y ghUCG :dP ,d LfEG I~YdH KCJh ejO dG YSCGQh ,Y LG b SGh dGh ,jdGh dG G SCGQ.LddGh ,dGh ,edG N~dGh ,Gh ,SDGh dG GKCd VY GJ dG Y dY IQ~b j~d dG G Mh

{2-4} .aG dGMCGh Jh G J

EG YCG e G SGQ~dGh YCG EG SCG e G SGQ~dG Jh

d V jObG feEG YIc dOCGh Je aGJ EG SCGCG eOdG OdG dG ie Y a~dG GRZ KfGEG KfG e j CG hCG GRdG g WSEG bG IOjdG Hj.15(SdG fd e 10h 9 dG) dG jG hO e,dG iG Y SGQ~dG e YdG jg JG e ZdG Yh

{3-4} .YdG iG Y H Ic aNG ~LJ

eRdG dG feEG c ~J CG I~Mh LdJ eEH dhH j dG ObG dG feEG h .b CG LGG dGREGh ac SS Vh N e EG bdG dG feEG Y

{3-4} .(SdG fd e -5 h~G)dG Ua CG EG a YCG EG SCG e G SGQ~dG eCGhe W Z 6 H KfG e J CG j aU S dHVJ dG LGG Y dG j e gh 2030 dG jS HdG

{3-4} .dG S

.eG dG VG Gg jh H H j CG GQG g CG EG ,I~M Y c dGh dG hj dG Gg CG e ZdG Y 14e I~Mh c H Y Ge) HdG d e ie ah Kfd SSCG H fQe dG a~dG GRZ VfG QG~e d zdG feEG{e Vh 15

.dG VGZC zjObG dG feEG{h zbdG dG feEG{ EG jCG dG feEG Jh .(N hCG j HdG ~cCG d aG KfG dGh (UG dG cdGh G f Lh j ) UG G ~eh UG ddG EG ~J dG dG feEG gbdG dG feEG

.dG UeG e ~ LGG CG EG fG e ,dG GAGLEGh SdG dP ,dG hH Dd ah bJG ~eh ;G f Lh j ) YLG G ~eh YLG aGh ddG QYG H NCJ dG feEG gjObG dG feEG.LGG dGREGh GAGLEGh SdG N e J dG IAc CG QYG Y ,(UG dG hG e~j dG J e bCG YLG

SGQ~dG gh .e FGd LdJ Y cJh dG GQN J EG ~J YCG EG SCG e G SGQ~da ,dG e G fCG G~SH dG feEG Q~JSGQ~dG g ~Jh .c ObG f Y dG GQN feEG a SCG EG YCG e G SGQ~dG eCG .dG ObG K VJ Yb SGQO IOY J

.dGh dG ObG G~Je YJh ,dG GQN Y eeh Y e GWCG


25/110

SdG fd e

15

{1-4} .dG M Je G dG Y IQ eCG:SdG fd e -4 h~G

:Me

.G QGfEG fCG Y I~j~Y Yb e iNCG eCG J ~b

SSCG dG e QSG GQGb Y JJ CG bG eh ,2030h 2005 edG H 16QhO jJ 20 e RhJ dJ bd Y d Gf a~dG GRZ KfG Y i~G I~H GQKBG Sj Qh .SSCG dG e SCGQ h GOLe e gZh bdGfc EGh M ,I~j~Y GOY G HdG Ldd SGdG QfG

CG dhCG Gj~dG Jh .HGL LddG g hCG GQSGje EG dG bdH G HdG ~cCG K KfG JZdG Y ,QSG CG Gc S 2030 Y H 2005 Yfh cJ OJ f H hGj G VEG QSG U CG e

{3-4} .%10 EG %5

20 x 1210 = H 20000 = jJ 20 16

SSCG SdG QWEG

eG IQGOEG ;WdG G SSG WG IQGOEG ;````G OQG```

H

;SDG UEG ;jdGh dG SSAH ;jQ~ dG ;MUEGh VGQCG eG;dG LGG ;UG eCJ ;GQ~dG

jdG GAYEGh Y~dG e

J GQYG e~J dG FGdGh jGG~SG SS ;dG Y G

eCdG ;AdG fGb ;VGQCG

J H J edG d SShJ ;IR```è U `è~``N ;````G

hOh bEG

;dG IQ~dG e) eG dGLGG ;(i``NCG YdG e HGhdG

jdG GAYEGh Y~dG e dG

dG SS G J GQYG eOjdGh dG QSG ;WdG

I~G WG e UN

aGMh ;bd Wh FGdh SSQOG G~SG d deh jVje ````G ````J ``èO ;````j~````dG

dG

dG JGSEG /QN

jJ J ;QeCG e IOjR;G G~SG IOYEG ;Y aGh G

dGh G G~SG IAc ;G

;UG Jh YGQdG ~YGe j~JIQGOEG ;UG bGe JhdG dH e ,VGQCGQTCG YGQR N e HdG jMh

LGMh ,GeCG G~e ;bGG JeG ;edG dG jJ ;UGdGWc WQ VGQCG /QGgCG OjEGh VGQCGdG S i e JQG ~V Ua

dG dG LGG jM ;dGh

;G bhCG d dG NbGe ;dG QGdG e~Ne ;H G VGeCG aeh

UEG aGeh feCe

f ;g~FGYh MdG G jJQfCGh YCG Je EG ddG GQ~eYUG dG Y OYG ;j~L

je Vh ;bGG J/JdG IOYEGdGh j~j~G dGh d Jh JjdGh QGMG cG iNCG SSCG

jRdGh SQEd SSCG dG jJ;aGd VQCG SCG ~e ;dG;IO~G QOG G~SG ;bdG IAce ~MGh Q~e Y OYG J

bdG QOe

d FdG UdGh bGbG =OdG G)

(UdG =FG Gh;jOG LGGh jdGh dG OQG``G

e QRB````dG ;G OQG`` eG IQGOEGiNCG YdG

EG UdG ;dGh Ld dG bG~Y WCG Se ;GSCG ;I~j~L G``fCGG e ~FGY ;dG VdG N

zI~j~G{

J feEG ;LddGh dG LGG;eG IQGOEGh SdG ;bGG

eG~G dG G~gCG e QRBdG

Oh~M ;(dG dG) dG dG Oh~Me~G ie aQ ;dG IQ~dG ;aG

IG Yf ;dG

j~dG ;I~j~G G jJ/HPLCG bG dG QKBG ;LdGh dGYUG dG e) iNCG YdG J;I~j~G G ~FGY ;(bdG G~SG ~jj ~b

G UCG e cCG Y GTEG

W aGJ ;Ld dGh dG LGG èOEGh LdJ ;GKCJ bCG

(bdG b e) FdG YdG

dG LGG ; Y FG~H EG UdG;I~j~G LddG b ;LddGhG~SG ;I~`j~`G LddG Ic

G OQGG

dG

G

YGQdG

/SSCG dG) WG

WG a(MdG

jdG dG

MdG

dG

bdG


26/110

SdG fd e

16

J VG SSCG H fQe ,YCG EG SCG e G SGQ~d W 2030 d dG M IQ~G ObG dG feEG:SdG fd e 10 dG{2-4 dG} .G SCG GJ e dG Z GQG feEG g J h .YdG

:MeG~SG KfG CG CG ,d FdG ~G H KfG jRJ EG bdG g ~Jh .b c IQ~e dG jObG feEG bf EG J jOdG G (CG

.bdG ~jQJ b M dh ,FdG G~SG Yd ah AHdG.HdG d Je je EG I~G J UHh SGQ~dG aGJ i~ feEG M j~J N (

OQGdG SSCG N dGh bdG GOG~eEG Yb ~YGh ,KfG gjQS Y UG jdG e B2 SSCG N YdG b ~YG ~a . SSCG N b c ~SG (N e cG idG e~SG G b h ;A1Bh B2 g KfG gjQS e KG H Sh SSCG N EG AdG b ~SGh ;z2004 d dG bdG aBG{ cG idG MCG e ~J SSCG N LGGh YGQdG e~SGh ;d e SSCG N AfE KfG gjQS Y UG jdG OQGdG A1B SSCG

.B2 SSCG N e.a Q~e h~dG GdG C d dG eG EG cJ (O

GOG~eEG b G IQGGh AHdG ~dJh IQGG fEGh ,OGG IAc GQN e ALh ,dGh G J dG HdG ~cCG K N KfG :g I~G dG (`gHfCG Nh dG Le Y LdG KfG Jh dG e eh ,G dG Je GQG eh ,aH jaG fh dGh ,dG cGh ,bdG

.15%h 10 H KfG d jObG feEG LEG Gj~dG ~J fh .dGh bdG GOG~eEG Yb e jQdG GRZh ,RdG

YCG EG SCG e G SGQ~dG ah IQ~e2030 Y `a dG M ObG dG feEG

2.4-4.7 0.4-1.01.3-4.22.3-6.42.5-5.55.3-6.71.6-2.5

US$100/tCO2-eq in GtCO2-eq/yr:

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


27/110


28/110

SdG fd e

18

ed Me YG dGh SdG e SGh Y gSdG J J feEG bJh .dG YC aGM OjEfd e 5h~G) YdG dGh edG hdG Y dGh

{3-4} .(SdG

Vhh ,Y LH FEG SdG G SS eOEG jh

,hG~d HdG NdGh ,SdGh FGdG Vah ,jG Vhh FGdGjdGh dGh ,eYEG GhOCGh ,YdG bJGh ,dG aGGh{3-4} .dGh

e dG EG ODj ~b HdG QSC da eY OLh EGLdG Y FdG SGQ~dG VJh .YdG c dG feEGae e W /GQhO 80h 20 H e EG dG HdG QSCG JQG CG550 Qj ie ~Y dGh j 2030 dG H HdG ~cCG Kie ~Yh .2100 dG H HdG ~cCG K ae e G GALbf N EG G LddG dG ODj CG GP dGHdG ~cCG K ae e W /GQhO 65h 5 H e EG J QSCG

{3-4} .172030 dG H

dG GAGLEG CG YIc dOCGh JG e dY LQO ghVfG f dG e) jdG i~G Y aGe ae EG ODJ CG

{3-4} .dG dJ e Gc GAL VJ CG (AGdG JG~dG GAGLEG CG Y Se dOCGh JG e dY LQO gh,dG KfGh dG ObG Y KDJ ~b hCG aG LQ~G

{3-4} .18BG M e Z Gj HdG J i~e e ZdG YQMCG Obd IQ~G G~dG bJ Q ,ddG jdG cP ch(AGS ~M Y a LQ~G Z G~dGh hCG aG LQ~G G~dG)H LEG G dG dch ,QSCGh dG VfGY G~j~T GOYG ~a VfG dP i~e eCGh .dG SS

{3-4} .dG S hXh edG SdG GQGH G VGaG

GdG CG YSe dOCGh JG e dY LQO jCG ghJ J CG IQGOEG SQh ,dG CGh ,IG SCG

{3-4} .YdG L G J

N e dG a~dG GRZ KfG d I~j~Y GQN ~LJhGREG e CG Y Ic dOCGh JG e dY LQO gh .h~dG hdGJc cJhHh G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJ XGSdG e Y Vh Y Gh ,G d Y HSG AfEGJ ~b I~j~L SDe dBGh Hd dhO S AfEGh ,WdG edG jCG ~J RMCG ~bh .G J dG dG O SSCG

G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG S dG EG dG{5-4} .aVEG dh~dG GQOG H MbGh

G~Ya dG dBG f SJh hdG OL e ~jG H eCGhddG S hCG dG e e ie d dG ddG JG~gCG ~j~ e YG UdG H OG g J CG h .dG

;WdG hO iG Yh bEGh h Yb GAGLEGh KfdJh ;ce SS OYGh ;dG dGh j dGh dG eGHh

{5-4} .jdG GhOCG f SJ hCG ;FEG Lh GP GAGLEG

NCd NG HSG GQN e GQN J ,Yb H h.eG~G dG OHCG e iNCG OHCG e VQdG h QRBdG LhCHZ SdG e gZh dG ObG SH G GQGdG eCGh,dG Y IQ~dGh ,KfG Y Gc GKCJ KDJ CG a NG

{8-5 ,4-4} .Wd VdG Hbh

dG GQ~b Rj CG eG~ SG cCG dG L Y dG EGJ Q dh ,Wd VdG Hbh KfG j CGh ,dGh

J eEH fCGG~L Lj ,iNCG Mf eh .dP J S VJ FGYG dG h .eG~G dG G ~dG AHEG EG ODj CG GFEG G~gCG H bYEG EG G J ODj CG ,dG Gg e

{8-5} .dCd

i~G ~H QG -5

IOG e IQY gh ,zG J GN jH N~J{ ~j e ~j~ EGM Y j ,G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG e fdGg Y GQGb PJG ~Yj CG d h .JGP b EG ~j

G J AGREG dG j~d je ~J I~YG g Jh ,dCGIOGh SSCG dG{ G QWEG} .zSSCG{ H Uh

{5 VG ,zG J CH I~G CG bJG e fdG

,G AGREG SG fCG e ~j~dH HQ 19SSCG dGfCGh ,FG OQGGh ,dGh ,SSCG dGh ,AGdG ~jQJ a ,dG FdG FMCG GQh~dGh ,LdjEG fCGh ,MdGG QWEG} .G dGh G GQhO TCGh ,j~G FdGhCH jQWEG I~G CG bJG e fdG IOGh SSCG dG{

{eG VG zG J

,aGG g AGREG f~dG dG dG f ~j PdG eh dRdG LdG EG G~J jdG Gg G dG ObG ddG dch dG aGM SGQO EG17

.jdGh OG dG GW dG GAGLE edG dG dHh ,ee dJ OLh ~Yh ,aT GSCG OLh Ve ,KfG WEG dG OdH NCj f ghGRdG hCG GQG hCG ,(VGQCG G~SG e) YdG hCG ,WG H ~SG e GPEG LG dG d dG ~jJ Sh .e eR Ia ddG EG g d dG Jhh G ~FGa EG J PdG gh .G LddG dG dP EG VCG GPEGh ,GOGG NQh ,HdG jV GOGjEG G~SGh ,bCG SSCG N EG OSG ~Y Sheh ;dG SGQO Y J c ~J RGMEG ~T ~a G LddG dG EG ~J dG odG eCGh .IGhG jb hCG Y LH dG GAGLE aGG dG EG~J e VfG OGOjh VfG ~J dG e e i G ddG Ea ,G LddG dG QYG J dG PdG eCGh Fb ge jb J dP

.dG iedG jdG Gg HGdG VG e UdG e ~je Y G 18

,jRJ fGLh ,e dG feEGh ,YLQ /gQGSGh ,bJh QKBG M jG g Jh ,HOCG IQG jG e O~Y Y AH SSCG dG ~j~ 19.gCGh ,LQCGh


29/110

SdG fd e

19

GQWEG J ddG dG jJ IO~G zG dG SCG{ GJ,g zSCG{ g J Hh .SSCG dG d YWG e ~j~dG O~oMh .ddG dG jJ gQU ibCG J fEahCG WG H j CG bj ,WSEG H hCG dG e dY LQ~HbdG a ~dh .IQGG LQO V IOjR h~M ~Y j CG

dG) dGh (ddG dG jJ zdG SCG{ SSCG) QKBG H{2-5} .(QKBG g e dG Y IQ~dG J,YdGh ,fCG dG hd OCG ~j~ EG dP ijhJ W OLh Y I~jGG dOCG EGh ,Wd VJ ~TCG WGh

{5-2} .edG e IO~e hb i~e Y Fg gQKBG YY ibCG I~j~L dOCG X .IO~eh I~ja fCG d VJ dG WG g AGREG dGh I~jdG fCH J dG G d IOUG QKBGG FdG Jh dG LdjCG dGh G e) QKBGLQO iNCG IOjR h~M ~Y dG QKBG OG~TH dPh (ddG e Gc YCG dG e LQO Y J dG WSEG Hh .IQGGdG QJh GfCG H VGfG boj ,ddG dG jJ WSEG

%30h 20 H e CHSe K gh .QGMG QGSG e fLGGOjORG LGJ CG Lj BG M b dG GGh dG GfCG e jJje dG IQGG LQO Se J e GPEG VGfG N CG dG OGRh .je LQO 2.5h 1.5 H hG`j 1999-1980je LQO 2h 1 H hGj dG IQGG LQO Se YJQGie a jJ je LQO (2.5 1.5 H e) 1999 je ae ~j~dG Lh L GQNCG j (YdG IQdG b e Ia.FMCG d G dG e ~j~dG a ,IO~Gh I~jdG fCG.f~e dG Y JQ~bh QGG OLEd VY fLG daje LQO 3h 1 H hGj YJQG dG S IQGM LQO JQGhe EGh d ~jGe QJ EG WSEG H ODj CG b j

bCJ hCG QGM J ~j e ,SGh f Y fLG dG~jj CG WSEG H bG eh .fLG dG SGH NeIdG QG h dG dG UCG dG VJ

{5-2} .QGMGQNCaG gGdG d HSG J .aG dG gGX W IOQGdG LQ~dH fQe Wd VdG LQO JQG Y INCGh~M bJ dG WSEG cCG K BG ~LJh .ddG dG jJ dch ,fdGh ,G Leh ,G M O~Y GOjR

{5-2} .IQdG gQKBGVCGh ,WG H IOM aNG ~LJ .dG fh QKBG jRJ .G J AGREG V cCG J e Gc ObG VdG M e dG Qch AGdG e e a V ~jGJ Y I~jGe dOCG gh,dP EG aVEGh .e~G G~dG jCG EGh ,a edG G~dG f~dG VdG N ~Y bGdG G bCG WG CG Y cCG dOCG ~LJ{5-2} .idG Ghd~dGh aG WG c ,cCG W eY LGJ

U CG EG WSEG J ,ddG dG jH fQe .dLEG QKBG j CG bj G d fh dG jW Y JBG dhCG aGQGVCG ~jJ CG bj H ,LQ~dG ~e QGMG j e~Y JhQPQKB adG ddG JJ CG bG eh .QGMG LQO JQG e

.{5-2} bdG ~jGG QGMG

QGMG CH dG e dY LQO ~LJ .IdG I~jdG WG W

H dG S ie JQG EG ODj I~j~Y hb i~e Y dGj CG bG e fCG EG WSEG J idG ~Mh QGG SdGIQN MJ CGh jdG dG AKCG IOUG dG e Gc cCG aCG a g ee Hh .dH JG QKBGh MS WeQh ~jZ j~G FdG ge N CG ddG dG jJdG S ie aQ aVEG ge HG dG G ~bh j~G FdG P WSEG bG G e cCG j ~b ~gT dG ej~dG ~G Y CG g dP Sh .hb N jFdG P ec LGQOEG Q~J dGh INCG ~UdG Me.~G G~a ~e ~jJ ~b HGdG dG jJ b dG j~G

{5-2}

~Mh dG h ~Mh dG fCHdG e dY LQO gh,NBG g~MCG j CG G e fCG Z ;G J QKBG L j CG

{5-3} .~H ~M EG G J W j CG e h

dG QKBG ~dGh jdG j~G Y jQhV dG jhgh .f~dG dG gjQS M ~ ~b dGh QGMG Y CJZ G J eCGh .ec a ee Z d dJh Oh~Mh FGYdG fCG IQ~b ~dG i~G Y Rhj CG LG a Gj Oh~G g H a dG bdGh .dG Y jdGh IQG~GhIG dG GAGLEG Ea Gdh .iNCG EG e eh NBG EG b e

HdG J dG SSCG dG OH ~dG QGSG EG ODJ ~be e H j eh G J e dG EG ODJ ~bh ,aH{2-5 ,3-5} .dG

Sh . hCG gNCJ hCG QKBG e ~j~dG e ~G dG SGH OdG hCG j~dG i~e Y dG GQSGh Od jJ eCGh .fOCG J je H Ua c KCG eOdG KdGe ~jjh ,UdG g e RQH f Y ~a GNCe J KfG{3-5 ,4-5 ,7-5} .G J QKBG TCG e ~TCG TC VdG W

J CG j ,G dG a~dG GRZ cJ J Mhd dG ie fG ch .dP ~H Jh JhQP KfG

{4-5} 20 .VfG dPh IhQdG J H GSEGe Oj ,SdG fd e 11 dGh 6 h~G heh dG GcJ a e d HG KfG jS ie LCG jW JQGh dG QGMd RGJ e dEG ODJe ie d G dG eCGh .21a QGG SdG H dG

6 h~G fG) bCG dG EG dH 2090 dG H J CGh ,2015 dG H JhQP KfG J CG QhdG e sG fOCG dG gjQS d dH 20.Kfd j~H GQe ~J dG gjQ dG H dG G J ~e Ic QGa Jh .(SdG fd e


30/110

SdG fd e

20

eYh dG IQGG LQO Se :ddG Ffh ddG dG jd ddG dG gjQS FN .SdG fd e 6 h~G{1-5 h~G} .(CG) jdG LCG RGdG dM ~Mh QGG O~dG H dG S ie JQG

Q```````eCG IQGM LQO je f Y G AL G AL

6 1.4 0.4 2.4 2.0 50- EG 85- 2015 2000 490 445 400 350 hCG18 1.7 0.5 2.8 2.4 30- EG 60- 2020 2000 535 490 440 400 fdG21 1.9 0.6 3.2 2.8 5+ EG 30- 2030 2010 590 535 485 440 ddG

118 2.4 0.6 4.0 3.2 60+ EG 10+ 2060 2020 710 590 570 485 HGdG9 2.9 0.8 4.9 4.0 85+ EG 25+ 2080 2050 855 710 660 570 eG5 3.7 1.0 6.1 4.9 140+ EG 90+ 2090 2060 1130 855 790 660 SOdG

:MefG) HdG IQhO G~Je G~a H j fOCG J ~b ,g qG dG SGQO OQh dG ~G g ,dG e e ie d KfG VfG ~e EG (CG

.(3-2 VG jCG2005 dG IG a~dG GRZ HdG ~cCG K ae cJ LE j~J aCGh .2005 dG G GAL 379 G dG HdG ~cCG K GcJ H (

.HdG ~cCG K ae e G GAL 375 J CG jdG KCdG eGY L KCG U J dG dd HG dG H .G GAL 455 QjRdG IO~e gjQdG fQe e d HdG ~cCG K KfG LQOoCG ~bh .ddG dG jd dG jQdG jRd 85 `dG Gh 15 `dG G bdG g HJ (

.(SdG fd e 3 dG fG) HdG ~cCG K Y IG gjQdH.je LQO 3 g G S aCG j~dG (O

dZ h .NG dG Qb H a~dG GRZ GcJ J bh bG dG IQGG Se Y j RGdG dM dG IQGG LQO Se CG M (`g.(21 TG jCG fG) 2150h 2100 edG H a~dG GRZ GcJ J ~j ,qG gjQdG

P) f H Ne P G~SH dG g Q~ob ~bh .bCG Y I~j~Y hd RGdG j h ,d QGG SdG SEH EG j RGdG dM dG ie JQG (hS aCG j~dG EG ~J dG (EMICs) ~dG SG VQCG f P e ~j~dGh (AOGCM) Gh iG dG H dG GQh~dG P g e hP ~MGhLCG jW QGG SdG iODj CG WSEG M bG eh .j~G GdGh j~G QfCGh ~G FU HhP eSEG J dh (SS LQO 3 gh G

.YdG IQdG b e IdG ie a dG QGMG Se e je LQO d 0,6h 0,2 H e EG

ie QJ dG IQGG LQO Se Ea ,dG je e EG dH eCG .HGdG dG jJ dG gjQd Me Z dG Gg GW IQGG LQO QJ Gj~J 21 RGdG IQGM LQO H a (SdG fd e 11 dG ,fdG dGh hCG dG) G dG je gjQS e eCG .b hb i~e Y RGdG

.e bh

JQG dM bO ~TCG Geh HCG bJ a IQGG LQO d{4-5 ,7-5} .SG g VfG dM G SM

j Sh .M eCG QGMG AGL e dG S ie JQGhC ah a~dG GRZ GcJ J ~H I~j~Y hd QGG SdGie YJQG jdG ~j ,IQ~G dG je e ie

OG dG WSEG H Kh~M bj e Gc j dG S~fjZ j~G FdG G~d FdG gG eCGh .jdGhK~j dG dP j JQG gh ,QeCG H JQG EG ODJ CG aYdG IQdG b Jje QGMG Rh dM dPh ,QGG SdGeCGh .hb I~d IOjdG g QGSGh je LQO 4.6h 1.9 H hGj jW eR Ga i~e Y QGMd ~G FU HSGh QGG SdG ba hCG dG jG ~Y a~dG GRZ GcJ J CG a

{3-5 ,4-5} .I~j~Y hd dG S ie j

qG dG je CG YIc dOCGh aGdG e dY LQO gdM MG LddG e Y f N e ZH ac Vjh ,eOdG OdG AKCG dG J CG bG e dG hCG

jRJh gfh Y Gh gjd dah Se aGM OLh dP

{5-5} .H dG GP FGdG EG dGh

e 80%h 60 H e CG EG qG dG gjQS L JhY ,YdG dGh ,bdG G~SGh aJ e JCJ ~b VfG

NCGh .gjQdG e ~j~dG FQ GQhO ODJ bdG IA c CHGQNh d edG Zh HdG ~cCG d edG dG GQHe ddGh fhG e G~je aj jdGh VGQCG G~SG dGYSh ,Ie GQSG f~G dG je Jh .ddG MMWh G KfG GP e~G LddG jRJ G~L Ic

{5-5} .jQdG dG j ~b ,Ldd a fh V jQSG a~J h~Hh

jdG J G eh .KfG c N dG e

HdG G~SG f~j dG Ldd aVEG ddG d

{5-5} .a

dG

dG~YHdG~cCGKcJ

()(GGAL379=2005)

~YHdG~cCGK

aecJ

a~dGGR`Zj`dGdG

jGAgCGh

()(GaGAL375=2005)

~cCG

`KKfIhQ`dGS

(,CG)HdG

ddGKfGdG

e%)2050

dGHdG~cCG

(,CG)(2000YKfG

adGIQGGSeIO`jR

dMYdGIQdGbeIa

SGj~dGaCahhRGdG

(`g,O)G

dGS

ieSeIO`jR

YdGIQdGbeIaadG

QGGO~dGAGLehRGdGdM

(h)~Mh

qGgjQdGO~Y


31/110

SdG fd e

21

N EG H H ddG gh 2050h 2030 edG dG ObG ~U Y IQ~G dG ddG .SdG fd e 7- h~G{2-5 h~G} .LCG jW J je f~dG dG GQ SSCG

MdG)2100 EG2000 e Id dG gjQS d KfG bfh 2000 EG1940 e IdG HdG ~cCG d dG KfG .SdG fd e 11 dGe GbG eCGh .(dG MdG) YdG IQdG b e IdG Se a RGdG dM dG IQGG LQO Se LG IOjdGh dG ~g H HG bdGh ;(idGe dG a) G~gC ah dG gjQS fG dG Jh .YCG J je VJ dG gjQdG UHh ,hb I~Y j CG a RGdGLQO3gh G S zaCG j~dG{ z1{ :G~SH YdG IQdG b e Ia Se a dG IQGG LQO Se J bf dG MdG Jh .(SOdG EG hCGLG d fOCG ~G z3{ ,(G G YCG MCG G) SS LQO 4.5gh G S LG d YCG ~G z2{ ,(G G Sh OSCG G) jedG INCG SSCG N gjQd KfG f EG idG MdG G AGOdG G Jh .(G G SCG QRCG G) SS LQO gh G S90 EG 10 e G Ha RdG IO~e gjQdG h g~Mh HdG ~cCG K J gjQS KfG bf eCGh .(2000) KfG gjQS Qh~U e f,HdG dGREGh QTCG b ~H J dGh VQCG a IOLG FMCG dG KfG J PdG e HdG ~cCG K KfG :Me .eH jQdG jRJ e

{1-5 dG} .G HdG Jh G FGMh

dG je e Y RGdG IQGM LQOh HdG ~cCG K KfG GOjR

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

20-

10

8

6

4

2

0

100090

080

070

060

050

0400

300

280

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

.PdG VGaGh dG Gj~H G UdG e ~j 17 TG fG 19

OGR c Y H OGOa dG ObG ~U Y dG dJ eCGhg Jh .(SdG fd e 7 h~G) HU dG ~g.22dG SG Y YdGh G~dG H Gc aNG ddG

{6-5}

dG ObG ~U Y dG ddG Se Ea ,2050 dG h~cCG K ae e G GAL 445h 710 H dG ~H dG dG e %5.5 H fh %1 H OjORG H hGj HdGGDWJ Hj dPh .(SdG fd e 7h~G) dG LEG0.12

Y J H LEG G d dG dG SG {6-5} .SS f

G d dG dG ~e Se VfG (%) LEG G dG VfG f (%) CG LEG G dG VfG Sh G AL) dG jeje f O , LEG (HdG ~cCG K ae e

2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030

0.12 > 0.12 > 5.5 > 3 > `````e ``````Z (O)535 4450.1 > 0.1 > 4 dS e j 2.5 EG 0.2 1.3 0.6 590 535

0.05 > 0.06 > 2 EG -1 1.2 EG -0.6 0.5 0.2 710 590

:Me.LEG G dG bQCG J dG dG gjQSh SSCG N ad edG HOCG c e h~G Gg IOQGdG dG J

.dG dG S ~e EG GOSG dG LEG G dG (CGK ae e G e GAL 535-445) hCG dG jh .LEG G dG IOjR EG a dG dG eCGh .fG ~Y Oj G fd 90 `dGh 10 `dG G f (

.a HOCG Y AH YCG ~G j~J (HdG ~cCGVfG gh ,GdG Y 2050h 2030 H LEG G dG VfG EG ODj ~b dG dG Ia AKCG VfG Se Y dG dG ~e VfG M ~j (

.dEG QG.YCG dJ EG eY ODJ iG Je SSCG Nh .e SSCG N Y Y H ~Jh f O~dG b SGQ~dG J (O

.ddG OdG G LEG G dG Vf YCG j~dG dG g HJ (`g


32/110

SdG fd e

22

.O~G d M jh dG ~dG Y oj G J QGVC jObG ddG aU 23

J WG IQGOE IQe Y Y J G d H SG EGaGh ,G J QGVCG EG QYG H Jh ,dGh dG

{1-5} .WG e bGGh ,IGhGh ,jQGSGh JGe ~jJ aU jS dJ G J QKBG VJ CGG~L LG ehYLG ddG Gj~J eCGh .dG IQGG LQO JQG eh bdG

GQhO 12 Se H ~a ,AGdG VSG dG Gj~dG g ,23

HdGj~ dG f dh ,2005 dG HdG ~cCG K e d jeCG.(HdG ~cCG K e d /GQhO 95 EG GQhO 3-) SGh f 100 `dG,G SM VGaG H aNG EG c H dP LjhjObG QKBGh ,IGhGh WG jb e edGh ,HSG NCJh,KQdG MG~a MOa J CG j dG FG GQOEGh ,jObG Zhe aNG a dd dLEG Gj~dG eCGh .G ~ehdJ Q~J fCGG~L LG eh ,dGh WGh YdG H QKBG

HdG Z QKBG e ~j~dG J CG fC dG gQ~b hO FG{7-5} .dG Sd

eG dG e I~G IOh~G dhCG dG FdG J,G M e fQd Hb Y H fCG EG dG aeh dddG ie hCG KfG Q VGdG ~j~dH o~H J dh

{7-5} .ddG aG J e~YgjQS dG Z FdG dG i~MEG G SM Jh

{4-5} .IQGG LQ~d e j G dGa a~dG GRZ e dG bJh H G GQG eCGhHh BG KfG J GSEd jObG ddG H fRGG NCdG Y j dG LCG I~dGh LCG SG HG WG

{7-5} .G d HSG


33/110

Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson, William Hare, Saleemul

Huq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno,

Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry,

Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravindranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci,

Stephen Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart, Dennis

Tirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe

SSCG HdG ja

Terry Barker

SG HdG ja

Abdelkader Allali, Roxana Bojariu, Sandra Diaz, Ismail Elgizouli, Dave Griggs, David Hawkins, Olav Hohmeyer,Bubu Pateh Jallow, Lu!ka Kajfe-Bogataj, Neil Leary, Hoesung Lee, David Wratt

:2007G J

dG jdG

dG jdG

G H G dh~dG eG dG H VG J

,fSEG ,a) G H G dh~dG eG d jdGh HdG edG G ,I~M Y c ,DhGLCG boCG dG ,jdG GgIOQGdG FdG dG ~Y LhCGh LSG CH SQ(IPCC) dG Y aGh dG dG ,(2007 af /dG jJ17-12

.HGdG dG jJ edG jdG ge

:g~YCG dG IOG EG GOSG


34/110

```````e~e


35/110

``````e~e

26

``````e~e

KdG edG baCG JLCG idG dG Y dG j dG Gg ~jJ Y ee If jh .G H G dh~dG eG d HdeG dG Y QOdG HGdG dG jJ e NCG AG UH

.G H G dh~d

fCG Y gQKBGh G IOUG G dG hCG VG jGdG SCG dG VG qj H ,HSCG Y dG H jdGh dQKBGh G G H J WSEG ddG VG ~jh .IOU

. gjQS AV H dG GP

dG OdG ~e Y dGh dG GQN HGdG VG bj

L g H HGdGh ,d HSGh QKBGh ,CG jH G J c Vj GQWEG SQ- 1 hCG dG

d HSGh QKBGh CG jH G J c Vj GQWEG SQ

H bdG eG VG qjh .eG~G dG e JYJh eOdGQe e bfGh ge SSCG Y cCG GOYG OYH dGh dG~Y LhCGh SSCG SGdG LSG SOdG VG jh .i~e ~HCG

.dG Gg G SSCG dG

,CG jH G J e Vj GQWEG SQ g - 1 hCG dGdG jJ Q~U e~Yh .L H HGhdGh ,d HSGh ,dG Gg QKBGh

Uh HGhdG g Ud SSCG H Me eG fc 2001 Y ddGKfG e gQKBGh NG GdG SG CG ,YdG QY G jBG G e H HGhdG g a q eh .jObG h YLG eGhd G GQG J CG ,jCG YdG QY G Y Y JdG KfG d G WG e J ~b d G dG KfG Obh

. G j


36/110

``````e~e

27

http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/ar4-workshops-express-meetings/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdffG 1

dG ~Y ee

KdG edG baCG b e dG ~Y LhCG e GQWEG Oq~ G H G dh~dG eG dG J~YCG dG dG ~Y CH 1LdG IcGa .GQG e I~e dG ~Y e Ye oof Jh Y e OGe qJ edG baCG C Y QWEG Ggh .dG jdG Gg hcjh .YLG dG hCG LddG QdG J e~G J W Y Y H J dG dG e~G dGh GTDGh fdG

.e YdG e fGL dG edG jdG jh ,dG dG Y ddG edG jdG cj H hCG dG Y hCG edG jdGW Y ~a e ~MGh c NGO eh oodG g H e QNG eCG .UG d e f dh ,dG ~Y LhCG Uh oof KK ~Jh

.G dG dG ch GU i~e Y dDG AGG Mh MG eGhCG MGh jdG e NDJ dG eG CG) dOCG Yfh QG~ f cGQOEG aj Uh dG ~Y Uj c J dG ~Y qnj e~ajdG e~ j dG Ggh .(e SG M HdG aGdG ie iCG) JG LQOh ,(U hCG U VGaG hCG GOYG c GPEG e Jh ,PdGaGe ;Se dOCG ,dY LQ~H aGe ;Ic dOCG ,dY LQ~H aGe :e J EG h JG H VGh e e S N e ddG edG

.dEG ,Se dOCG ;Se~j dG dEG ~j dG dG hCG PdG hCG fdG GU i~e AGG M e~e dG Y cCG GOYG ~j J dG ~Y qj e~Yh;10 e 5 `H Q~J Se K ;10 e 8 `H Q~J dY K ;10 e 9 Y J G~L dY K :FU SG j CG MG j~d dG dG je Se

.10 e 1 e bCG G~L f~e K ;10 e 2 `H Q~J f~e Kbf ~J (PdG Ff hCG MG e) dOCG e Y FMEG dGh AGG M G~SH e Ff AGREG dG ~Y j e~Yh;50%< e~Y e cCG LQCG ;66% < Le ;90% < G~L Le ;95% < jd Le ;99% < VGaG ~cDe :h~G MG b Y d ddG LQCG

.1% > FSG f Y ~e ;5% > jd ~e ;10% > G~L ~e ;33% > ~e ;66% EG 33% OSG hJ OJ LQCG.LQCG J SSCG H hCG edG jdG ~SG H LQCGh dG J H dG edG jdG L

e ee EG G LSG ~J e~Yh .jdG Gg H j dG edG baCG jQJ OQGdG dG ~Y J dG jdG Gg j.G edG baCG jQJ e IPNCG UdG e e dG ~d ~G UdG j ,eY ja e cCG

LQCG g CG iCG) 90% H dG dM j ~Y bf EG jdG Gg ae Sb H IOQGdG bdG bdG J ,dP N cj eh.j~J aCG M Ke dG ~Y bf CG IQhdH dP j h .(QcG bdG dG e 5% `H Q~J f hCG IOjH


37/110

1

gQKBGh G `a IOUG GdG


38/110

gQKBGh G `a IOUG GdG 1V

30

G J IOUG MG 1-1

M e G J c a ~J RMCG ,ddG dG jJ Qh~U efdG Y e ~j~dG SJh jJ Y N e edGh jJh dG ~Y LhC aCG dGh aGG dGh ,fdG h

{SdG fd e hCG edG jdG} .ShCG f Y Sd

G J jJG dh~dG eG dG b e eG~SG H G J jGQNG G~SG e) ~j~ G dM J EG G HId jh ,FN J hCG/h Sh GJ N e (FMEGG J CG EG jh .WCG Ga hCG GOY J e IOY ,dheGg j .H f Y CG W J Y f AGS ,edG e Y ~j,G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG Y d G~SGTe Z hCG Te H ioj G J EG G J j MEG j eY jh ,dG G dG jJ q~j H f EG

.fQd Hb eR Ga IOUG dG G J

Se GOjdG BG qH gh ,a d VGh NG dG QGMGhJQGh ,SGh f Y dGh ~G HhPh ,Gh AGdG IQGM LQO,4-8 ,3-2 hCG edG jdG} .(1-1 dG) dG S i dG S

{SdG fd e ,5-5 ,5-2e (2006-1995) VG IY KG GdG e S IY i~MEG Jhe) dG dG IQGG LQO Sb ILCG S H IQGM GdG ~T 0.56] 0.74 -ddG (2005-1906) FG Gd dG G eCGh .(1850 S(0.8 0.4) 0.6 -ddG HG dG G e cCG ~a S S LQO [0.92Gh .(1-1 dG) ddG dG jJ OQGdG (2000-1901) SS LQO 0.10] 0.13) 2005 EG 1956 e eY G Ia dG QGMd de Y FG Id dG G V Qj (~dG SS LQO [0.16

{SdG fd e ,2-3 hCG edG jdG} .2005 EG 1906

N ~Y YJQG OGOjh dG AfCG L e IQGG LQO JQGhG IQGG LQO Se JQG ~bh .(2-1 dG) dG ddG Vd.VG FG Gd dG SG V hj a ddG dG.(5-2h 2-1 dG) G e SCG HdG We QGMG chG IQGG LQO Se CG 1961 Y e IOUG MG Jh80% e cCG YJ G CGh ,e 3000 bCG YCG M OGR ~b ddG Sd I~j~L XCG ~bh .NG dG EG aG IQGG eShCGh dG AG IQGM LQ~d YdG QbCGh ~WG SGH jLLQO Md dG QGMG ~ T QGMG ~e SHhdG e{SdG fd e ,2-5 ,4-3 ,2-3 hCG edG jdG} .dG IQG.(1-1 dG) QGMG e a dG S ie JQG OjORG eCGhGQYG dG e [2.3 1.3] 1.8 dG ie JQ dG SG -H ~a1993 Y e dG e [3.8 2.4] 3.1 fh ,2003 Y Mh 1961 Y e1993 e IdG SCG ~G Gg c GPEG e ~H j h .2003 Y 1993 Y eh .LCG WCG G IOjR hCG j~nY aNG j 2003 IQ~G jOdG eSEG LEG e 57% H d QGG SdG Sj~G QfCG VfG SCG a ,dG S ie JQG FdG J~a e SCG ~a G dG eCG ,28% H j~G G dGh

V eSEG g LEG c 2003 EG 1993 e IdG h .dG j~G.ITe OUG dG S ie JQG LEG e e dG ~Y fe 1 h~G ,SdG fd e ,5-5 ,8-4 ,6-4 hCG edG jdG}

{SdG fdQGMG e dc e ~Gh dG Me IOUG VfGhdG M dG SG CG 1978 Y e JGdG fH Jh .(1-1 dG)Gg OGOjh ,~dG % ]3.3 EG 2.1[ 2.7 H J ~b dG dG ~G

Se ~Th .~dG % ]9.8 EG 5.0[ 7,4 EG d dG a dG.VQCG IdG f VfG dG AdGh G j~G QfCG J jJ 7% H Se ~J dG VQCG M bCG ~G fGhHdG a VfG Gg -jh ,1900 dG e dG VQCG IdG fe ~dG FGO VQCG W YCG IQGG LQO Y H JQGh .15%S S LQO 3 a dG dG e jdG dG fK

{SdG fd e ,5-5 ,8-4 ,7-4 ,6-4 ,5-4 ,2-3 hCG edG jdG}e ~j~dG jCG ~UoQ ,G VGMCGh ,WGh ,GQdG ie Yhe IdG J~T gG ~UQh .iNCG Ne fGL LCG jW GdGOGR ,IdG g GWh .IdG WG e ~j~dG dG c 2005 EG 1900Th ,HGh ddG jeCG e bdG AGLCG Ic IOjR dG,SG HCG dG ,MdG fG H ,Shh SBG Th ,HhQhCGJ CG 1Lj ,dG ~dG Yh .SBG L e AGLCGh jaCG GhedG jdG} .jdG dG S e JG ~b H IKCG G

{SdG fd e ,9-3 ,3-3 hCG:VG G GdG AKCG aG jG G~MCG H I~T hCG/h JGJ JhgJGJ b ~b dG Leh IOQdG dGh jCG J CG G~L LG e =jdG} .IQ`G dGh ``jCG JGJ OGR H ,HdG We e a

{SdG fd e ,8-3 hCG edG.HdG We e a OGR ~b G Le JGJ j CG LG e =

{SdG fd e ,8-3 hCG edG jdG}g LEG e AL hCG) dG dG G~MCG JGJ j CG LG e =,8-3 hCG edG jdG} .HdG We e a OGR ~b (IjdG QeCG

{SdG fd e ,9-3OGR ~b 2dG S ie e JQG h~M ~e j CG LG e =edG jdG} .1975 Y e dG AfCG L bGG e c O~Y

{SdG fd e ,5-5 hCGUYCG f IOjR h~M J IOUe Me EG ~J dOCG ~LJhEG j e g CG c ,jJ 1970 Y e WCG T I~j~dG jQG~GJfH Yf J dG iNCG WG H UYCG J f IOjRUYCG S Yfh OdG IO~e dG eCGh .dG e d GQ~e~a jJ 1970 Y JGdH JhdG ~UdG Y A~d HdG jQG~GjdG} .jQG~G UYCG f LCG jW gG c Y J~qY

{SdG fd e ,8-3 hCG edG

Id dG dG IQGG LQO Se j CG G~L LG ehIa iCG Y c YCG jdG dG e dG dG AKCG VQCGYCG SG j CG LG eh ,INCG FG GdG iNCG S 50e ,6-6 hCG edG jdG} .j~J bCG Y VG 1300 `dG GdG

{SdG fdIdG f dG AdGh ,dG S ieh ,IQGG LQO GJ

dG VQCG

.G g Vd e~G OQGdGh zdG ~Y e edG{ G QWEG fG .dGh dG ~Y Ud jQe GQY g FG H YGh dGh LQCG EG J dG GQdGdG dG e 1%YCG fCH g qjh .bEG dG fCG Yh dG S ie Se Y ae YJQG dG S ie JQG ~jh .G J EG iJ dG efJ UYCG ASH

.e Le Ia dG S ie ~Ud YS c J


39/110

gQKBGh G `a IOUG GdG 1 VG

31

0.5

0

0.5-

50

0

50-

100-

150-

4-

4

0

14.5

14.0

13.5

40

36

32

2000195019001850

dG AdGh () ;(MCG dH) JGdG fHh (QRCG dH) QGh ~G S W dG S i dG SGh () ;dG IQGd dG SG (CG) IOUG GdG .1-1 dG j~dG SG EG G G Jh .1990 1961 IdG HG- SG Y Sb f J bhdG ch .jHCG /f SQe /QGPBG d dG VQCG IdG f SCG hCG edG jdG} () edG `Sd Wh ( h CG) ahG dG ~Y LhC eT d W IQ~G dG ~Y hJ f EG a G MG eCG .jdG dG FGh~dG J M

{SdG fd e-3 dG ,13-5 dG ,2-4 dG ,1 dG ,1-3 IQe

dG VQCG IdG f `a dG AdGh dG ieh ,IQGG LQO GJ

NG Gd IOUG QKBG 2-1

.1970 e IdG J fH Y Y c H UdG g ~JFjdG dG IOUG gG hJ dG SGQ~dG O~Y JQG ~bhjJ Qh~U e Gc YJQG bEG NG GdH bYh FMCGh

e f gh .fdG Y Yf jCG h .ddG dGe ,IOUG G dH G HdGh fdG M e GG RG dGfd e dG edG jdG} .edG G~ dG d d VGh IQ~f

{SdG

dG M e LQO YCGh bf ShCG J AGLEG SGQ~dG g MJCG ~bh.ddG dG jJ AL fQe QKBGh OUG QGMG H bd INCG bEG GdG CG 2dY K{ g CG dG Gg SGhjdG} .zFMCGh FjdG fCG Y Xe QKBG d c IQGG LQO

{SdG fd e dG edG

CG G eh GQdG L ~UQ Me EG ~J dG dOCG JhYJQH UHh ,bEG NG GdH KCJ dG fCG e ~j~dG

{SdG fd e dG edG jdG} .IQGG LQOVQCGh ~Gh dH G dG fCG CG dY K gh

:eCG H j ah .dH KCJ (~dG FGO VQCG a ) I~Ge 3-1 dG edG j dG} j~G GdG O~Y JQGh JG=

{SdG fd

jdG GQfGh ~dG FGO VGQCG We VQCG K ~Y ~jGJ={SdG fd e 3-1 dG edG jdG} .G WG

ddG dG HG dG LdjEG fCG H GJ= QGGh ,dG ~ G FMCG G~MdG bGdG a ,3-1 ,4-4 dG edG j dG} .FGdG dG e JG jG

{SdG fd e 4-15fCG ~ ddG QKBG CH dY K OLh I~jGe dOCG JQfCG e ~j~dG HdG IG a~dG IhQPh jG OjORG :LdhQ~dGe ~j~dG QfCGh GdG QGMGh dG Y I~ G QfCGh j~GedG jdG} .G Yfh iQGG dG J dG QKBG H e WG

{SdG fd e 3-1 ,2-15 dG


40/110

gQKBGh G à IOUG GdG 1V

32

HdG G fCGh jdGh VQCG fCG) FMCG fCGh (MdG dGh ;LdhQ~dGh ;I~G VQCGh ~Gh dG) FjdG fCG fH S G GdG bGe 1-2 d

jG J SdG gh .SGQO577 e I~e fH S80000 f e fH S29000 f AfG ~bh .2004-1970 IdG dG AGdG IQGM LQO GJ eh J (FMC

f e IPNCe g fdG SSh .gO SGQO c OQGdG dG H dPh ,gG e CG e GJ Jh(3) ,bCG Y eY20 Ia Y ~h(2) ,~H hCG1990 dG J(1) :dd

Ne fH Y AdG WG h .HhQhCG SGQO e AL S28000 f e fH S29000 f Jh ,(ddG dG jJ f e Q~U I~j~L SGQO70 f e) SGQO75

:jQdG Wd dPh z1{ (dG dG) QGMG e G e jG dGh .(dG dG) e GJ e fdG SS O~Y LEG J2 X 2 WCGh .IQGG LQ~d e j~d ac IOUe

WCG IQcG SGQ~dG OG~YCG eCGh .dGh HdG Gh dGh VQCG :dG dG Y z2{ ,dG WGh ,G~jRfh ,dGSGh ,SBGh ,jaCGh ,HhQhCGh ,JdG jeCGh ddG jeC

fCGh jdG fCH G bQCG J dG WG ASH WG e IaGG bQCG C dG eG Y hj a (dG WG EG ddG jeCG e) dG bE

{9-3 dG ,hCG edG jdG ;9-1 dG ,8-1 dG ,SdG fd e 1 dG dG edG jdG} .SdG MG jdG GdG bGe jG Y J h .HdG

89%94%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%100%98% 96% 91% 94% 94% 90%90%92%94%

3 55 4 55 53 119

NAM LA EUR AFR AS ANZ PR* TER MFW** GLO

5 2 106 8 6 1 8 5 765 120 24 7645

28.115 28.586 28.671

3.52.01.00.2

2004-1970

-0.2-1.0

1-30

31-100

101-800

801-1200

1201-7500

7,5001

2004-1970 ,dG IQGG LQO àh FMCGh FjdG fCG à GdG


41/110

gQKBGh G `a IOUG GdG 1 VG

33

g ,GfCG e SGh Y EG I~G dOCG OGR G~L dY K gh,VQCG FMCG fCG Y jb GKCJ KDj ~dG j~M QGMG CH dGIgh ,QTCG GQhCG Qc HdG G~MC G dG e GdG a c ~j GGh dG GfCG h ,dG Vhh ,QdGFGhCG e JGdH IOUG MG Y AHh .dGh dG WG GWG e ~j~dG e QX dY K Cf ,jdG dG fKcCGh WCG SG Jj HdG JdG Ad G zQGNG{ e ,2-14 ,2-8 ,3-1 dG edG jdG} .~dG j~M QGMG H IQGM

{SdG fdGdG C`H dG g ,V I~j~L ` dOCG Y J dY K ghJQH JJ HdG H UGh jdG FMCG fCG IOUG,dGh ,i~G AdG dH U Y G```Jh G IQG` M ` LQObdG :j e GdG g Jh .GQh~dGh ,cCG jehN ~Y bGdG G SCGh ,dGdGh ,ddG Iah GJhbGdG GdG fGG dGdGh ddG Iah GOjRh ;ddG VdGGdGh bdG GdGh ;ddG dG Nh ddG VdG N ~YG J QKBG Y I~jGe dOCG OLh e ZdG Yh .QfCG SCd IGY G H G OLEG M QKBG a j ,fLG dG jdG} .(dGh dG ~U GaEG e) iNCG OLEG M e gZ

{SdG fd e ,3-1 dG edG

jdGh dG dG J bEG NG d iNCG QKBG BG Jh.NG cG eGdGh dG H e ~j~dG HU e ZdG Y

{SdG fd e ,fdG edG jdG}

fCGh IQG~G fCG Se H IQGG LQO JQG QKBG Kh ~bh:ddG jdG

e dG dG dG VdG N ~Y LGGh YGQdG IQGOEG=~Jh ,b P e HCG HdG e bh UG YGQR e ,VQCG IdGe ,3-1 fdG edG jdG} .aBGh FGG H HdG HGVG

{SdG fdLQO WG IOjdH G adG e ,jdG dG fGL H=H j~G VGeCG bGf Y FQdG GdGh ,HhQhCG IQGG~jGJh SG J dG dG cdG QdGh ,HhQhCG WGIdG e dG dG SdGh dG VdG N ~Y G gfd e ,J e 8 ,2-8 ,3-1 ,dG edG jdG} .VQCG

{SdG

a dG SGe bh dG e) dG dG jdG fCG H=Y Ob Va e) dCG L e JQG f~e WG h (~Gh dG

{SdG fd e ,3-1 ,dG edG jdG} .(G VjdGVGQCG G~a e jdG dGh dG S ie JQG jhfdG J dG QGVCG h , MdG WG hGh WdGJ QKBG g CG IQG HdG e j fCG Z .I~j~Y W MdG

fd e ,iJ Le 1

,3-1

,dG edG jdG} .HK gG ~H{SdG

FjdG fCG `a GdG JG3-1QGMG e FMCGh

S Yh G GdG dG QGMG Y aVEG dOCG j f h dG AdG f e ~UdG Mj e dP ,``VQCGa bh ,dG ~G bJh ,dG VQCG IdG f dG ~GFGO VQCG f Jh ,j~G QfCG HhPh ,dG ~Gh GdG ~JQGh ,IG IQGM LQO Sh ,HdG IQGM LQO OjORGh ,~dG

.dG S ieSS e 89% e cCG QGMd HSc d bG Gh jdGh ,SGQO 75 e I~eh IOUe S 29000 gO~Y Rhj dG fdGjdG} .(2-1 dG) FMCGh FjdG fCG e ~j~dG dG dG J

{SdG fd e ,4-1 dG edG

gJ ~UdG Mj NG fGG H 4-1

e ~j~ iNCG fGL gh ,J NG fGG H CG h~jdG ~G ge ~Jh .fdG jc ~Y H dPh ,J ~b fc GPEG

dh ,IO~ bGe GJh dG H J HG dG G ~Y e eh FMEG gCG P OdG O~e FMEG Se ~LjSe Gh dG e jdG jG IQGG LQO JQG h~M:e ,iNCG Ge e ~Lh GPEG e ~j~d ac dOCG ~LJ h .c IQdOdGh HGhdc IdG gGdG hCG dG d dG HfG GQh~dGUYCd dG O~dG VGh e ~Lj h .HGdG UGdGh dGh

{SdG fd e 3-5 ,4-4 ,8-3 ,2-3 hCG edG jdG} .jQG~G


42/110

2

````dG ````SCG


43/110

dG SCG 2 V

36

dG SCG

,G d CG jdGh dG cG eGdG VG Gg hj,4YTEG ,G dG Gcda ,a~dG GRZ KfG S a

.NG QKBGh HSGh

IG a~dG GRZ KfG 1-2

Ggh ,NG dG YTEG GKDG Y IG a~dG GRZ JI~G CG bJG Y UG a~dG GRZ KfG hj d

.G J CH jQWE

Me e jdG fCG Y TdG a~dG GRZ e dG KfG OGRhjdG} 5.(1-2 dG) 2004h 1970 H e %70 H YdG IQdG b e

{SdG fd e ,3-1 ddG edG

JKfG OGR ~bh .CG jdG a~dG GRZ gCG HdG ~cCG K j W Z 38 EG 21 e dPh 2004h 1970 H e %80 QJ H jd.(1-2 dG) 2004 Y CG jdG a~dG GRZ KfG LEG e %77dG GdG AKCG HdG ~cCG d aG KfG ~e JQGh(jS HdG ~cCG K ae e W Z 0.92) 2007-1995 H e INCW Z 0.43) 1994-1970 HdG IdG AKCG Y c Gc cCG YJQ,1 dG G ,3-1 ddG edG jdG} .(jS HdG ~cCG K ae e

{SdG fd e

KDG b J jdG Gg h .G d dBG UH edG gC TDe gh G dG VQCG f LQGh JBG bdG H RGdG J eY KCd Se g YTEG KDG.(2 /Gh) HG G GdH Y jh 1750 S ~Y IO~G YdG IQdG b e hX EG f GdG Y YTE

.G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG IQcG jdG ~jQa SG~Sh ,QdH G HchQ~dGh ,Hc QahdGh ,RhdG ~cCGh ,Gh ,HdG ~cCG K KfG a j.G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG L HEGh J b G~SH dPh Y Fe N dG QGMG ge feEG N e g a~dG GRZ SJh

.G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG L HEGh J bQ bh Y Fe N dG QGMG feEG jdG Gg ~j.jG AgCGh a~dG GRZ e N hCG a a~dG GRZ dG g J ~b

() HdG ~cCG K ae GcJh KfG

dG Y (YTEG GKDG) iQGMEG gKCJ a~dG GRZ J.G dG gYh YTEG FN N Gf dG NGSSCG Y j e Se SGH jQGMEG GKCdG g Y dG h

.YTEG KDc HdG ~cCG KHdG ~cCG K fG c g HdG ~cCG d aG fG h e bh YTEG KDe K~j idG f KCdG ~ o CG dGGRZ e e RZ e fG c K~ dG KCdc e eR aCGe aG g Y G h .a~dG GRZ e N e hCG a~dGeR aCG dG QGMG feEH a~dG GRZ fG V NM N e Y G a a~dG GRZ dHh 6.ejh .I~M Y RZ d HdG ~cCG d aG KfG LEGe GRZ KfG fQ G~e Se HdG ~cCG K aefG) G d HSG f Y j fCG Z ,a~dG GRZ

.(10-2 hCG edG jdG~b idG HdG ~cCG K cJ g HdG ~cCG d aG cdG K e e N K~j dc YTEG KDe KCJ e f Q~dG ~oj

7.GKDG UY e iNCG UYh HdG ~cCG

~cCG K a2004 Y KfG LEG e CG jdG a~dG GRZ f () .2004 Y EG1970 Y e CG jdG a~dG GRZ e dG jdG KfG (CG) 1-2 dG,2 ,1 ,CG1 TCG ddG edG jdG} .(HdG dGREG J LGG) .HdG ~cCG K a2004 Y CG jdG a~dG GRZ KfG LEG e G YdG f () .HdG

{dG

CG jdG a~dG GRd dG KfG

28.7

35.6

39.4

44.7

49.0

1970

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1990 2000 2004

1.1%

2.8%

25.9%

13.1%

7.9%

19.4%

13.5%

17.4%

56.6%

14.3%

17.3%

CO2

2.8%

7.9%

gQ~e 2004 EG 1970 e IdG a~dG GRZ KfG idG IOjdGhjQdGh dG G Yb a SCGh ,YdGh ,dGh ,bdG GOG~eEG() 1-2 dG hj .bCG ~ dh YGQdGh (HdG dGREG a ) LGGh


44/110

dG SCG 2 VG

37

a~dG GRZ KfG jRJ () .(h~dG Y jH UG jdG fG)2004 Y h~d G YG S M ~MGdG Od bEG a~dG GRZ KfG jRJ (CG) - 2-2 dGMdG I~YCG IOQGdG jG dG Jh .2004 Y G h~dG Y LEG G dG a (FGdG IdG OJ Y AH) LEG G dG e jeCG QhO d bEG

{SdG fd e ,()3h (CG)3 dG ddG edG jdG} .a~dG GRd dG KfG e e c f EG

(FGdG IdG OJ Y AH) LEG G dGh dG M a~dG GRZ Kf bEG jRdG

and M&TandM&T

(2000)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

5000040000300002000010000600050004000300020001000 00

e 3-1 ddG edG jdG} .2004 Y a~dG GRd YdG QOG.{SdG fd

(%33-) dG KfG Y dG bdG I~T VfG KCG chdGh (%77) dG N~dG iKCG LG e bCG 2004 EG 1970 e IdGG HdG ~cCG K KfG ~jGd gch ;(%69) dG fdGK Kf LCG jdG VfG e 2000 Y ~H fG ~bh .bdHe ,2 dG ,3-1 ddG edG jdG} .IOQe bW I~Mh d HdG ~cCG

{SdG fdKfG h ,~MGdG OdG NO IRQH G~dG H aNG GJhhCG aG LQ~G G~dG T ,2004 Y a .bdG I~Th ~MGdG Odf -Hh ,dG S e %20G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJHH SCGh FGdG IdG Od W %57 dG LEG G dG eddG edG jdG} (2-2 dG) a~dG GRZ e dG KfG e %46

{SdG fd e ,3-1

G J c 2-2

dG jG AgCGh a~dG GRZ GcJ J dG GdG EGRGJ ~ GJ g dG TEGh ,VQCG AdGh ,GY GdG g KDJh .G d c Jh NG dG bdG.VQCG IdG S Yh G dG NGO TEG fGh ,QfGh ,UeGfCH Ua eGdG g f bdG RGJ dG hCG HjEG GdG eCGhG Y IOhdG hCG QGMG GKCJ H fQG ~J 4YTEG GKDe

{2 dG G ,hCG edG jdG} .dGa~dG GRZ e Ie GRZ HQCG e KfG EG jdG fCG iODJhe Y) fHcddGh ,RhdG ~cCGh ,Gh ,HdG ~cCG K :giG dG GcdG ~jJh .(ehdG hCG jQdG hCG jQdG J GRdG

.e dG Y e cCG KfG J e~Y a~dG GRd

G dG RhdG ~cCGh ,Gh ,HdG ~cCG K GcJ OGRhBG J JHh ,1750 Y e jdG WdG f e H dG

aG ~G Y e O~j dG YdG IQdG b e Me gGe Gh HdG ~cCG K GcJ eCGh .(3-2dG) dG BG J dGGW G~FS c dG dG dG Gc Rha 2005 Y G dG

HdG ~cCG K GcJ dG GOjdG LJh .VG S 650000`dG VGQCG G~SG J j a ,SSCG H QMCG ObdG G~SG EG IOUG IOjdG CG G~L LG eh .bCG ge dh e ge dPH ,QMCG ObdG G~SGh YGQdG EG hCG G LJ G cJedG jdG} .YGQdG EG hCG G RhdG ~cCG cJ IOjdG LJ

{SdG fd e 3-7 ,3-2 hCG

QJ b e dG G dG HdG ~cCG K cJ JQGh

.2005 Y G GAL 379 EG YdG IQdG b G GAL 280INCG dG GdG HdG ~cCG K cd dG IOjdG ~e chSdG A~H e Y c cCG (jS G AL 1.9 :S 2005-1995),(jS G AL 1.4 :S 2005-1960) G d IG ITGedG jdG} .iNCG EG S e IOjdG ~e J OLh e ZdG Y dPh

{3-1 ddG edG jdG ,SdG fd e 3-7 ,3-2 hCG GAL 715 QJ b e dG G dG G cJ JQGhdG J FGhCG dG GAL 1732 EG YdG IQdG b dGe IOjdG ~e fGh .2005 Y dG GAL 1774 -Hh ,jdGLEG) KfG LEG e j VfG gh ,jdG dG J FGhCGhCG edG jdG} .IdG g GW HK j c PEG (dGh jdG QOG

{SdG fd e 4-7 ,3-2GAL 270 QJ b e dG iG dG RhdG ~cCG cJ JQGhedG jdG} .2005 dG GAL 319 EG YdG IQdG b dG

{SdG fd e 4-7 ,3-2 hCGe (fHchQ ahQ~dG a ) fHcddG e ~j~dG cJ JQGh.jdG fCG g JQG SSCG dGh ,YdG IQdG b jJ dGe UG jdG ;SdG fd e 3-2 hCG edG jdG}

{SdG fd

1750 e jdG fCG KCG d dG SG G~L dY K ghHG G Gh [+2.4 EG 0.6+] 1.6+ -j YTEG KDe d QGMG eY c{SdG fd e 9-2 ,5-6 ,3-2 hCG edG jdG} (4-2 dG)

HdG ~cCG K GOjR Y LdG YTEG GKDG -jhCG G~L LG eh ,HG G /Gh [2.5 EG 2.1+] 2.3+ RhdG ~cCGh Gh


45/110

dG SCG 2 V

38

cCG e Z ~e YdG dG AKCG GKDG g OjORG ~e jH YTEG KDc HdG ~cCG K OGRh .(4-2h 3-2 dG) Y BG IY eY VG Y FG GW ~Y iCG cCG dG gh ,2005h 1995 H e %20

{SdG fd e 4-6 ,3-2 hCG edG jdG} .j~J bCGHdGh ,jdG UN) jG AgCG jdG gG hYTEG KDe IH GOe e ~j (QdGh ,GdGh ,OSCG HdGh ,dGS VH ~j Te Z KDeh He e /Gh [0.1- EG 0.9-]-0.5 Q~b Te

.dG Y jCG jG AgCG KDJh .He e /Gh [0.3- EG 1.8-] 0.7- Q~b{SdG fd e 5-7 ,9-2 ,4-2 hCG edG jdG}

~b 1750 dG e dG TEG GdG CG Q~noJ fQG S Yhe /Gh [0.30 + EG 0.06+] 0.12+ QG~e W YTEG GTDe dH K~MCGjdG} .ddG dG jJ QcG j~dG f e bCG j e gh ,He

{SdG fd e 7-2 hCG edG

G~JGh G SM 3-2

GKDG EG NG dG HS Se RGd G SM JRGdG dM dG QGMd dG SG fCH Jh .IG YTEG

dG jJ Qh~U e RG ~dG eCGh .HdG ~cCG K cJ Ye ~HSS LQO 4.5h 2 H G SM -J CG Lj J e qa ddGLQO 1.5 Y J CG G~L ~jh ,SS LQO 3 aCG j~dG j CG YaGJ CG Z ,SS LQO 4.5 Gc J dG dG ASG h .SS,6-8 hCG edG jdG} .dG Jh Sj IOUG MG e PdG

{SdG fd e ,2-10 QWEG ,6-9TG fG jh .e KD HSG J hCG ~jJ CG G~Jd h W ge jdG fCG Y TdG (a~dG GRZ ~MCG) AG QdGcJ JJ dG IQGG LQO Se JQG e fCG EG .YTEG GKDGe GKDe d d FQ HjEG G~Je e gh SHhdG AG QHSM Y KDj ~Je cCG AG QH GJ h .G J GKDGGJh .ddG dG jJ Y c aCG BG a Hh ,RGd GG~JGh NG dG Jh .dG ~d cCG Q~G dG e G~JGG~Je ,G S a .G HS fG CG c HedG jdG} .dG VdG N HSG jJ EG dG ~G VHfd e 5-2 dG G ,3-1-2 dG G 2-9 ,6-8 ,8-2 hCG

{SdGdG e HdG ~cCG d Gh HdG UeG e QGMG jhgh .G dG J dG CG jdG KfG f ~jj ,GdG HdG ~cCG d cCG GOjR HdG IQh~d HjEG I~JG jdGjdG g KCG Ib CG Z ,e KfG jQd NG dG e ~jeh iGG ,7-3 hCG edG jdG} .G PdG H e H J I~JG

{4-4 dG edG jdG ;SdG fd e ,4-5 dG

G J hY 4-2

HSG e dG MdG e e IOUG GdG fc GPEG e hdG jGRZ hCG dG TEG GdG e) LQG GKDG EG bG.Fja dG j~dG V dG e e Zh ,(CG jdG a~dG

{SdG fd e 4 :dG G ,hCG edG jdG}

VG S BG 10 `dG N RhdG ~cCGh ,Gh ,HdG ~cCG K GcJ -2-3 dj~L Y e IPNCG SdG J .(IdG MdG)1750 dG eh (IdG MdG)G) G dG Y eh ( SGQO EG GdCH G RedG J) aL.IdG MdG e dG QhG 1970 d dH HG YTEG GKDG J .(AGG

{SdG fd e ,1 dG ,hCG edG jdG}

Y e fH EG GOSG a~dG GRZ `a dGj~M fHh aL j~L

400

300

200019001800

350

1

0

350

250

2000

1500

1000

500

330

300

270

240

200019001800

200019001800

0

0.2

0.4

2000

1500

1000

500

330

300

270

2005

0.1

0

050001000


46/110

dG SCG 2 VG

39

````YTEG G```KDG ```fe

dBGh eGdG e gZh RhdG ~cCGh Gh HdG ~cCG K M e1750 `H fQe (dG ~Y bf e95% EG5h Gj~dG aCG)2005 YTEG GKDd dG SG 2-4 dG

b Gd aVEG Me ~jJ I~ IG cGdG GQK Y TdG jG AgCG Jh .dG d qG iGh KDd (G dG) ~dG GG QWEG fL EG dPh ,G iNCG{SdG fd e 2 dG ,hCG edG jdG} .dH GdG oj dG G iNCG QKBG G YdG dG f j h .GQdG Y

(CO

2)

[1.83 1.49] 1.66

[0.53 0.43] 0.48[0.18 0.14] 0.16[0.37

0.31] 0.34

[0.65 0.25] 0.35

[0.12 0.02] 0.07

[0.05 -0.15] 0.05

[0.0 0.4-] 0.2-

[0.2 0.0] 0.1

[0.1- 0.9-] 0.5-

[0.3- 1.8-] 0.7-

[0.03 0.003] 0.01

[0.30 0.06] 0.12

[2.4 0.6] 1.6

(N

2O)

(CH

2)

210-1-2

e dG IQGG LQO Se OUG JQG e hY G~L LG e

jdG a~dG GRZ GcJ OUG JQG EG jdG dG e

e CG{ ddG dG jJ SG CG e RMCG e~J dP jh 8.CG

IOjdG EG ij CG LG e eG G GdG N OUG QGMG

e 4-9 hCG edG jdG} .(5-2 dG) .za~dG GRZ GcJ

{SdG fd

aVEH ,Gh G dG dG SGh QGMG e ~UQ e eCGh CG dH GOSG ~G e fCH SG ~jDa j~G dG QfG EGGKDG cP hO eG G GdG N dG NG dG JAKCG h .ahe W SCG EG a ij fCG G~L LG e fCGh ,LQG~jdG EG iOCG ~b fcdGh dG GKDG CG LG e IdG gIQGG LQO J N e NG dG QGMG cG ~bh .QGMG EG dhG~L LG eh .G dG QeCG e IQGM LQOh jGh dGGKCdG EG SJGdG IOhHh SHhdG QGMG OUG dG ij CG

OjORG CG LG eh .SJGdG hRhCG Ofh a~dG GRZ OjOR cGjG AgCG C OUe g cCG GQGMG ~MCG ~b ~Mh a~dG GRZ GcJKh~M bG e c dG QGMG H hO dM ~b CG jdGh fcdGG ,7-9 ,5-9 ,4-9 ,5-7 ,2-5 ,8-4 ,4-3 ,2-3 ,9-2 hCG edG jdG} .gd

{SdG fd e ,1-4 dG

eG eY G AKCG CG H c QGMG ~M ~b fCG LG eh

.(5-2

dG) (HG dG G ASH) I~M Y IQb d Se M{SdG fd e ,4-9 ,2-3 hCG edG jdG}

HdG ``a ``cCG H QG``MG a ,IOUG QG``MG ``CG EGGKDG J P EG c edG Qh CG J GJh ,Gha W GKDe ~SG G d hOe P ~Lj a .CG jdGG ASH) gO IQb jQdG SdG QGMG gG EG UJh,2-3 hCG edG jdG} .jdG dG e dG dG GW (HG dG

{SdG fd e ,2-4 dG G ,4-9

.dM e EG ~j G dG ~Y dG 8


47/110

dG SCG 2 V

40

jQdGh dG IQGG LQO J

MG Se Jh .e CG jdGh dG hCG a dG GKDG G~SH NG PdG Ic FH dGh jQdG dG IQGG IOUG GdG fQe .5-2 dAbQdG WTCG Jh .50% G J -J M e N SQ iLh .1950h1901 H KG ~G EG fh ~dG fQe (OSCG G)2005 EG1906 e Id IOUG j~dY58`d95%-5 dG a G AGG WTCG eCG .cGdGh dG dG Y LdG a dG GKDG ~J Ne P N Ic Y IY d 95%-5 dG

{SdG fd e ,4 dG ,hCG edG jdG} .e CG jdGh dG GKDG ~J Ne LP Y HQCG Ic

Y OUG IQGG LQO J hYh Ic HU ~LJ GJh

dG e j f cCG dG G J J M ,VCG bf,G GKDG dM dG ~Y CG c .LQN GKDe f bG Gd

e j I~JG jdGh ,VQCG G~SG Jh jG AgCG Y TdG c

IOUG dG dG GdG a~dG GRZ OjORG QhO j~J d

{SdG fd e ,4-9!3-8 hCG edG jdG} .IQGG LQO

Xe jH GKCJ CG ddG dG jJ Qh~U e RMCG dG ~dG j

fGL e iNCG fGL J H IQGG LQO Se e ~HCG g ~

,5-9 ,4-9 hCG edG jdG} .jdG CGh aG IQGG LQO e

{SdG fd e

~b GOH jCG cCGh GOHh GM dG cCG IQGM LQO J CG LG e

jdG GKDG CG dG fLQ j h .CG jdG GKDG f JQGSCG ~b GKDG g CG LG eh .G Le g Ua OGR ~b CG jQG~G a IQGG CGh UGdG GQe dha jdG CG J VQCG IdG f GQhO IOUG GdG CG Z .VQCG IdG f GKDG d HSG P SGH IcG J e cCG J dGfd e ,3-10 ,5-9 ,4-9 ,6-3 ,5-3 hCG edG jdG} .jdG dG AKCG

{SdGJQG SCG ~b CG jdG GKDd HSG CG G~L LG ehY dOCG H gh .jdG dG e dG dG dG S ie

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

20001950

1990

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

20001950

1900

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0

1.0

0.5

0


48/110

dG SCG 2 VG

41

SGdG IOUG dG CG dP ,LdhQ~dG IQh~dG Y dG KCdGEG dG LQCG cCG eh .jdG dG HdG Y dG dGIKCG WG Me IOjdG EG dG G SCG ~b dG KCdGjdG} .dG dG G~MCG JGH dch jdG dG S e Hfd e ,3-4 dG G ,1-4 dG G ,5-9 ,5-5 ,3-3 hCG edG

{SdG

e KCG d c VG KdG OdG GW CG dG QGMG CG LG eFjdG fCG e ~j~dG IOUG GdG M e dG iG Y

{4-1 dG edG jdG} .FMCGh

WG H G aGdG CG AH J SGQ~dG e Y dJ CG cdG bGG Hh VQCG IdG AfCG FS Je QGMG Hf ~J dGg QGMG e G dG fCG e ~j~dG Ic IOUe GJ ~J hCG IQGG LQO dG dG EG a ij CG G~L ~G e aGJH H HGQ OLh P Y FdG SGQ~dG e ~j~dG XCG ~a .fCG

,CG dG QGMG Hh FMCGh FjdG fCG e IO~G HSGQGMG h~M EG J dG dOCG dP EG VCG GPEGh .V SGQ~dG g O~Y dhIQb d Se VG G GdG AKCG CG H cCG dG QGMG j CG LG e H ,(HG dG G ASH)dG fCG e ~j~dG Xe GKCJ KCG ~b VG KdG OdG GWdG edG jdG ;SdG fd e 4-9 ,2-3 hCG edG jdG}

{SdG fd e ,4-1HSG SC edG hdG hO BG a IOLG GdGh OdG eCGdGh .ec GhY CG jdG GKCdG EG dG fCd IOUG.SGQ~d VG bGGh ,dG Wh ,fCG O~Y M e IOh~ MGY g cCG bEG iG Y IQGG LQO dG dG Jha .LQG GKDG Y TdG GdG ~j~ Y KDj ,dG iGG~SG J e) Ne Z iNCG eGd e KCJ ~Lj ,bEG ~dGe 4-1 ,3-1 ,2-1 ,dG edG jdG} .(IG GfCGh ,dGh ,VGQCG

{SdG fd


49/110

3

kah jdGh dG i~G GP QKBGh G J gjQd


50/110

gjQd ah jdGh dG i~G GP QKBGh G J 3 V

44

KfG gjQS 1-3

a~dG GRd dG KfG CG Y 9Ic ``dOCGh c aGJ gdG SdG ZQ G dG OdG N O`jORG J S.bdG GP eG~G dG SQ e H j eh G J dY UG jdG Qh~U e f dG Kfd SSCG N gjQShG H G dh~dG eG dG Vh dG KfG gjQS

dP OQh dG gjQdG H dG M e T(SRES, 2000

dGh ,UG j dG IOQGdG gjQdH G QWEG fG) jd{SdG fd e ,2-3 ,3-1 ,ddG edG jdG} 10(3-1

G IOjR (SRES) JWSEG H UG jdG gjQS bJZ 36.7 h 9.7H hGj ~ dPh a~dG GRd dG Kfd SSC.2030 Y EG 2000 Y e IdG (90%-25) HdG ~cCG K ae e WH QMCG ObdG j CG WSEG H bj ,gjQdG g hWSEG H bj ddh .~H eh 2030 Y M dG bdG N Y e IdG bdG G~SG Y LdG HdG ~cCG K KfG ~jJ ,3-1 ddG edG jdG} .IdG J 110% EG 40 ~ 2030 Y EG 2000

{SdG fd eKfG gjQS Y UG jdG Qh~U e f dG SGQ~dG eCGhd bCG b e~SG ~a (UG jdG ~H X dG gjQdG iCGH NCJ dG SGQ~dG J CG Z .dG WSEG S ,KfG cGdG WSEG g GQOEG Y j fCG J I~j~G fdG WSEKfd dLEG jG J ObG dG e iNCG cG dGh ,JdG jeCGh ,jaC ObG dG WSEa .W GJ UG jdG ~H IQOdG SSCG N gjQS 2030 Y M ShCkGKCJ EG KDj Gg dh ,jdG dP AL bCG KfG gjQS Y,ddG edG jdG} .dLEG KfGh dG ObG dG Y kH

{SdG fd e ,3 - dG G ,2-3jG AgCG q c ,aU GOu``e G``KCG jG AgCG ~h,OSCG HdGh ,jdG ~cCG K dP ,jG AgCG FS KfGhbj Y Hh .UG jdG YCG dG gjQdG ,dG HdGhedG jdG} .UG jdG cP Y KfG VfG WSEG H

{SdG fd e ,3 - dG G ,2-3 ,dd

.zG g T Y Wd e~G dG ~Y e edG{ G QWEG fG .dGh dG ~Y Y jQe GJ Fe H IOQGdG dOCG/aGdG EG GQTEG bJh .Jc cJhHh G J CH jQWEG I~G CG bJG GQOEG AGREG G~Y ~MCG SGQ~dG Jh .dG SdG Z aVEG Ne SS Y SSCG N gjQS J 1

.5 VG dG gjQS KfG GQedG S G~SG jh .G~dG H LEG G dG fQ Se ~jh .KfG gjQS U QSCG G~SG M Tf Qh~j ,ddG dG jJ Qh~U e 1dG G~dG H N~dG fQe Y J dG dG AGLEG ~Y e a (PPP) FGdG IdG OJ G~SG eCG .Y H Loj dG G J dG dG AGLE (MER) dG ~FdKfG J M HdG e G~S SfG Ggh .dG ~FdG dG S G~SH Y j jdG Gg IOQGdG dG G~MdG eh .dG MGe M e Gc aNG Je ,ddG edG jdG} FGdG IdG OJ IQY G~SH dP EG Qj FGdG IdG OJ e G~SH dG G~MdG Y soj e~Yh .IjG VGZC (MER) dG ~FdG dG S

{SdG fd

(SRES) KfG gjQS Y UG jdG IOQGdG gjQdGG H G dh~dG eG dG Vh dG KfG gjQS Y UG jdG aUG gjQdG EG (SRES) UG jdG jJ j~H FEG GQe VJ dG (A1, A2, B1, B2) gjQdG e a HQCG EG UG jdG IOQGdG gjQdG b ~bh .(SRES, 2000)Y UG jdG IOQGdG gjQdG J h .a~dG GRd KfG EG iODJh LddGh jObGh aGZ~dG cG idG e SGh bfY J e eCGh ,G NG GdG J

Date post:	06-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change
View:	221 times
Download:	0 times

Summary for Policy Makers and Technical Summary - Arabic

Documents