CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
Natural Gas In The World – 2016 Edition
CEDIGAZ, November 2016
SUMMARY
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WORLD UGS and LNG Storage June 2016
RECENT STUDIES
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 2016 – SUMMARY
• Worldwide proven natural gas reserves declined by 1.8% to 196,229 bcm as of December 31,2015. • Reserves are highly concentrated, with the Middle East holding 40% of worldwide proven reserves,
followed by the CIS at 34%. OPEC countries control 47% of worldwide reserves and three countries (Russia, Iran and Qatar) account for 55% of global reserves.
• Worldwide marketed natural gas production grew by 1.6% to 3493 bcm (+ 53 bcm) in 2015. This growth rate is slightly higher than that of the previous year (+ 1.3%) but remained slower than the past ten-year average (+ 2.2%/year). Like in 2014, the moderation of gas supply growth in 2015 was mostly explained by demand-side factors.
• In 2015, world gross natural gas production increased at a lower rate than marketed production, up 1.3% to 4359 bcm.
• Quantities of reinjected gas decreased significantly by 3.6% in 2015, reaching 441 bcm. Global flaring and venting amounted to 134 bcm, up 2.1% from 2014. The shrinkage surged 5.7% to 292 bcm.
• In 2015, global unconventional gas production reached 781 bcm, of which 90% was sourced from North America.
• International natural gas trade (including LNG-re-exports) increased strongly by 3.1% to 1043 bcm in 2015, fuelled by both pipeline trade (+ 3.4%) and LNG flows (+ 2.4%).
• In 2015, the inability of natural gas demand to absorb the incremental available supply led to an imbalance on the international market and to a price weakness. International gas prices declined sharply in direct or indirect relation to falling prices of other fossil fuels.
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN THE WORLD
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Proved reserves by region
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
NORTH AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
CIS
ASIA-OCEANIA
AFRICA
Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database
Unit: Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Proved reserves by economic zone
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Other
OPEC
OECD
CIS
Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Regional share of proved natural gas reserves
40%
34%
8%
6% 6% 4% 2%
MIDDLE EAST
CIS
ASIA-OCEANIA
AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Share of proved natural gas reserves by economic zone (31/12/2015)
47%
34%
10% 9%
OPEC
CIS
OECD
Other
Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Cumulated proved reserves growth since 2005
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NORTH AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
CIS
ASIA-OCEANIA
AFRICA
Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database
Bcm
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of marketed production of oil and natural gas in the world
Gtoe
Source : CEDIGAZ
The global Gas/Oil Production Ratio has slightly fallen in recent years as oil production growth, boosted by US tight oil plays, has surpassed that of natural gas.
In 2015, it declined one point to 72% as the production of oil increased faster than gas.
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of the world balance of gas production
Source: CEDIGAZ
Evolution 1980 - 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Other losses*
Flared & vented
Reinjection
Marketed production
Gas reinjected 10%
Gas flared and vented
3% Other losses (shrinkage)
7%
Marketed production
80%
* essentially resulting from the processing of natural gas before it enters the networks, purification and/or extraction of its liquefiable fractions (ethane, LPG, natural gasoline and condensates). This volume includes natural gas used in field and processing plant operations.
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
793
23%
595
17%
952
27%
248
7%
206 6%
168 5%
532 15%
World Total = 3493 109 m3 Source: CEDIGAZ
Marketed natural gas production by region in 2015
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Recent trends in marketed gas production by region
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
North America C.I.S Middle East Asia Oceania Europe Africa Latin America
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Bcm
Source: CEDIGAZ
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of marketed production by geographic zone (1)
Source: CEDIGAZ
Evolution 2005 – 2015: + 2.2%/year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Latin America
Africa
Europe
Asia-Oceania
Middle East
CIS
North America
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of marketed production by economic zone
Source: CEDIGAZ
Evolution 2005 - 2015: + 2.2%/year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Other
OPEC
CIS
OECD
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Marketed production by country
Source: CEDIGAZ
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Uzbekistan
Abu-Dhabi
Australia
Malaysia
Indonesia
Algeria
Turkmenistan
Saudi Arabia
Norway
China
Canada
Qatar
Iran
Russia
United States
2015
2014
Top-15 natural gas producers
Bcm
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS IN THE WORLD
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end-2015 Total resources (Tm3) : 784 Tm3
Conv. : 434 CBM : 50 Tight : 81 Shale gas : 218
Source: International Energy Agency (WEO 2016) based on BGR (2015), BP (2016), Cedigaz (2016), O&GJ (2015), US EIA/ARI (2013), EIA (2015), USGS, IEA databases
Americas
Latin America
E.Europe/Eurasia Europe
Middle East & Africa
Asia-Oceania
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Role of unconventional gas in US marketed gas production
Source: CEDIGAZ Estimate, EIA
5%
1%
14% 18%
57%
5%
80%
Offshore Alaska Other Tight gas Shale gas Coalbed Methane
Total 2015 = 765 Bcm
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS TRADE
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Recent trends in international gas trade
Source: CEDIGAZ
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015
LNG - Inter LNG - Intra Inter - Pipeline Intra - Pipeline
2015 2014 2013
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
The international gas scene in 2015
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Regional importing markets Regional exporting markets
Net imports Net exports
Recent trends in interregional trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Europe Asia-Oceania North America
2013
2014
2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
CIS Middle East Africa Latin America
2013
2014
2015
Source: CEDIGAZ Unit: Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
International imports by region
44%
28%
13%
6%
4% 4% 1%
Europe
Asia Oceania
North America
CIS
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
43%
29%
13%
7%
4% 3% 1%
Europe
Asia Oceania
North America
CIS
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
Total 2014 = 1012 Bcm Total 2015 = 1043 Bcm
Source: CEDIGAZ
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
International exports by region
26%
21%
16%
13%
12%
8% 4%
C.I.S.
Europe
Middle East
Asia-Oceania
North America
Africa
Latin America
25%
22%
15%
14%
12%
8% 4%
C.I.S.
Europe
Middle East
Asia-Oceania
North America
Africa
Latin America
Source: CEDIGAZ
Total 2014 = 1012 Bcm Total 2015 = 1043 Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of international gas trade: Pipeline versus LNG
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Pipeline LNG
From 1996, intra-CIS trade was included
Source: CEDIGAZ
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
International natural gas flows by main country (1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan Germany United States Italy
China Turkey France South Korea
United Kingdom Mexico
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Russia Qatar Norway Canada
United States Netherlands Algeria Turkmenistan
Australia Malaysia
International imports in the top-ten importing countries
International exports in the top-ten exporting countries
Source: CEDIGAZ Unit: Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
World LNG demand by zone
North America
4%
Europe 14%
Asian established markets*
58%
Asian emerging markets
17%
Middle East & Latin America
6%
North America
4%
Europe 15%
Asian established markets*
60%
Asian emerging markets
17%
Middle East & Latin America
9%
* Japan, South Korea & Taiwan
Total 2014 = 314 Bcm Total 2015 = 323 Bcm
Source: CEDIGAZ
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE IN THE WORLD
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of global UGS Working Gas Capacity
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
WGC (bcm)
Ratio WGC/Gas consumption
Sources: Cedigaz UGS Database, Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Regional share of working gas capacity (Total 413 bcm)
38%
29%
27%
4% 2%
North America
C.I.S
Europe
Asia/Oceania
Middle East
Source: Cedigaz UGS Database
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Working Gas Capacity by storage type
12%
80%
0% 8%
Aquifer
Depleted field
Rock Cavern
Salt Cavern
Source: Cedigaz UGS Database
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of the world energy mix
Natural gas 21.3
Coal 27.8
Oil 32
Nuclear 4.8
Renewables 14.1
2015 (%share of primary fuels)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
Renewables
Source: CEDIGAZ Estimate (2015), IEA
Slowing primary energy demand growth and the decline in energy intensity means that the share of gas in the energy mix has increased marginally despite slower gas demand expansion.
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
590
17%
481
14%
964
27.5%
482
14%
132 4%
163 4.5%
681
19.5%
World Total = 3493 109 m3 Source: CEDIGAZ
World natural gas consumption in 2015
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of apparent consumption by geographic zone (1)
Source: CEDIGAZ
2005 – 2015 : + 2.2%/year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Africa
Latin America
Middle East
Europe
CIS
Asia-Oceania
North America
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of apparent consumption by economic zone (1)
Source: CEDIGAZ
2005 – 2015 : + 2.2%/year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Others
OPEC
CIS
OECD
Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of apparent consumption in the top-ten consuming countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Russia China Iran Japan
Saudi Arabia Canada Germany UAE Mexico
United States
Russia
China
Iran
Japan
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Germany
UAE
Mexico
Others
Total 2015 = 3493 Bcm
Source: CEDIGAZ
Top-10 consuming countries
Unit: Bcm
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Recent trends in actual gas consumption by region
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
North America Asia-Oceania CIS Middle East EU28 Latin America Africa Other Europe
2014
2015
Actual gas consumption*
* Figures differ from apparent consumption as actual gas consumption takes stock changes into account.
Source: CEDIGAZ
Unit: Bcm
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
INTERNATIONAL GAS PRICES NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of international oil and gas prices
Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2012 2013 2014 2015
Henry Hub
Europe - Average
Japan LNG
Brent
$/MBtu 2012 2013 2014 2015 Henry Hub 2.8 3.8 4.4 2.6
Europe - Average 11.5 11.8 10.1 6.8 Japan LNG 16.6 16 16 10.2
Brent 19.3 18.7 17.1 9
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION
Evolution of international gas prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Ja
n-13
Feb-
13M
ar-1
3Ap
r-13
May
-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug-
13Se
p-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec-
13Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun-
14Ju
l-14
Aug-
14Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14Ja
n-15
Feb-
15M
ar-1
5Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug-
15Se
p-15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec-
15
NBP Japan spot LNG Japan LNG Oil parity* Henry Hub Europe - Average
* JCC
Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters
$/MBtu
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 2016 Full version (100 slides) + Excel Data Files (Reserves, Production, Trade, Consumption, Underground Gas Storage) available to Cedigaz members Price for non-members: • Full slideshow (PDF): 350 Euros (VAT excluded) • Full slideshow (PDF) + Data (Excel): 1,500 Euros (VAT excluded)
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CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas