Summary of Findings Post Election Environment Nationwide
Survey, January 2014 The authors views expressed in this document
do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency
for International Development or the United States Government.
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Methodology 1. Scope: Nationwide, 62 Mouzas/Mohallas; 39
Districts; 7 Divisions 2. 1500 face to face interviews with
citizens age 18 or older-potential voters 3. Multi-staged random
sampling: 1. Randomly selected Mouzas/Mohallas (PSU) 2. Households
were selected using systematic random sampling 3. Respondents were
selected using Kish Grid 4. Field work: January 11-15, 2014.
Significant events surrounding the fieldwork: 1. New Government
& Parliament 2. Khaleda Zias speech 3. Pre and Post Election
Violence 5. Call back strategy to increase response rate 6.
Rigorous quality control: supervision, spot checks, trainings for
enumerators 7. No data weighting was employed for this in person
survey 8. National representation of voters with maximum MoE of
+2.53% (@50% Interval-95% confidence level) Supplementary Telephone
Interviews 1.1044 Cellphone users, selected using Random Digit
Dialing method 2.Numbers generated among different carriers based
on known market share 3.Interviews: Jan. 15-19, 2014 4.Data then
weighted based on known population demographics 5.National
representation of Voters with Cellphone with Maximum MoE of Approx.
+3.2% (@50% Interval-95% confidence level) Supplementary Telephone
Interviews 1.1044 Cellphone users, selected using Random Digit
Dialing method 2.Numbers generated among different carriers based
on known market share 3.Interviews: Jan. 15-19, 2014 4.Data then
weighted based on known population demographics 5.National
representation of Voters with Cellphone with Maximum MoE of Approx.
+3.2% (@50% Interval-95% confidence level) Data Sets are analyzed
independently from each other, Phone Survey results presented as
insets
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Demographics (Un-weighted) Gender Age Dwellings Divisions
Religions Based on Education and Occupation of Chief wage earner in
Respondents household; SEC A being Highest to E being Lowest
SEC
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Right-Wrong Track-Longitudinal Trend Overall, do you think
things in Bangladesh are headed in the right direction, or are they
headed in the wrong direction?
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Reasons for Right/Wrong Direction 2.1 Why do you think things
are headed in the right direction? (Multiple) 3.1Why do you think
things are heading in the wrong direction? (Multiple)
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Problems Facing Bangladesh* *Asked as open ended in November
2012 and January 2013; options were read since April 2013 Q5. In
your opinion, what are three (3) main problems faced by
Bangladesh?
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Jan.5 Election Q5. Did you vote in last January 5, 2014
Election? (Nationwide n=1500) Q5. Did you vote in last January 5,
2014 Election? (Where Election were held, n=759)
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Reasons Not to Vote Q6. What is the single main reason why you
did not vote? (Nationwide n=1500) Q6. What is the single main
reason why you did not vote? (where Election were held, n=481)
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Reasons to Vote Q7. What is the single main reason why did you
vote?
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Possible Votes on Jan 5 Q19. Lets assume that the last January
5 election was fully participatory, which political party do you
think you would vote for?
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Votes if Election is held today Q20. If the election is held
today, which party would you think you are likely to vote for?
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Voters Retention and Movement 08 to Current
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Governments Perceived Credibility Q8. In your opinion, the new
government which will be formed as a result of this election will
be highly credible, credible, less credible or not credible? Q9. In
your opinion, should the next government be in power for full term
in the next five years or should it be less than 5 years?
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Re-Election? Q13. In your opinion, should there be another
election before 5 years (within 5 years of current govt.)? Q14.
Regardless of your opinion on Q13. ; do you think will there be
one? Q15. In your personal prediction, how long will you think the
new government will remain in power?
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Election Violence/Fraud Q10_1. Please tell me whether you or
any of your friend/family members see or hear these things happened
in your area or not?
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Post Election Security 11.In your opinion what can be done to
maintain peace and security in your area? Q12. The BEC deployed the
army a couple of weeks before the Election Day, in your opinion,
how long should the Army be deployed?
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Opinions on Current Issues Q21. Im going to read you series of
2 statements that are opposing each other; after each one please
tell me which opinion is closer to your own.
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Opinions on Current Issues-Cont. Q21. Im going to read you
series of 2 statements that are opposing each other; after each one
please tell me which opinion is closer to your own.
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Opinions on Election-Party Breakdown
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Opinion on Possible BNP Activities Q22. I am going to read you
several activities that the BNP might or might not do next to
request election under non-party caretaker government, after each
one, please tell me whether you will highly support, support,
against or highly against such activity by the BNP?
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Opinion on Possible BNP Activities Q22. I am going to read you
several activities that the BNP might or might not do next to
request election under non-party caretaker government, after each
one, please tell me whether you will highly support, support,
against or highly against such activity by the BNP?
Slide 22
Opinion on Possible AL Activities Q23. Im going to read you
several activities that the AL might or might not do next, after
each one, please tell me whether you will highly support, support,
against or highly against such activity by the AL?
Slide 23
Opinion on Possible AL Activities Q23. Im going to read you
several activities that the AL might or might not do next, after
each one, please tell me whether you will highly support, support,
against or highly against such activity by the AL?
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Name Recognition and Favorability Ratings
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Name Recognition and Favorability Ratings: Institutions