Verge / EFF: History Began with frustration with limitations of STEEP taxonomy Overly broad - human systems blur STEEP boundaries STEEP views change from the point of origin What categories help define our lives as human beings? “Culture points”: highlighting key experiences as human beings Explore change at the point of impact on people and human systems Still arguing whether “Destroy” is a key aspect of human experience Intellectual roots in anthropology, ethnography, and ethnographic futures research (Robert Textor), as well as social impact assessment. “LOTS of people – consultants in particular – talk about the “drivers” of change. And they’re usually referring to technology when they do so. I prefer to think about how change happens across the various segments of human experience. Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time,
Transcript
Verge / EFF: HistoryBegan with frustration with limitations of STEEP taxonomy
Overly broad - human systems blur STEEP boundaries
STEEP views change from the point of origin
What categories help define our lives as human beings?
“Culture points”: highlighting key experiences as human beings
Explore change at the point of impact on people and human systems
Still arguing whether “Destroy” is a key aspect of human experience
Intellectual roots in anthropology, ethnography, and ethnographic futures research (Robert Textor), as well as social impact assessment.
“LOTS of people – consultants in particular – talk about the “drivers” of change. And they’re usually referring to technology when they do so. I prefer to think about how change happens across the various segments of human experience. Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not.”
Richard Lum, M.A., Ph.D. FuturesVision Strategy Foresight LLC
Michele Bowman, M.A. FuturesAndSpace Consulting
EFF Verge: Case StudiesFutures presentations / workshops by AndSpace Consulting:
About identifying eternal verities around which change swirls
Fidelity Bank
Price Waterhouse Coopers
Massachusetts Department of Education
Women in Technology
Nissan Motor Company
Ford Motor Company
Babson College, Boston, Massachusetts
Future presentations / workshops by Infinite Futures:
President’s Panel, American Library Association
Singapore Civil Service College
Future presentations / workshops by The Futures Company:
Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea
Eurostar
Michele Bowman, M.A. FuturesAndSpace Consulting
Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. FuturesInfinite Futures
Andrew CurryThe Futures Company
EFF Verge: Case Studies
Pitney Bowes:Futuring GroupGrowth Strategy Group
MTV User Profiles: Social Technologies presented at Trends conference: “The Future of Happiness”Created user profiles for MTV’s new customers:
Today’s users increasingly pragmatic in pursuit of happinessUser profiles: enabled comparative analysis of details of users’ lives
Health and Safety Executive ScenariosProvided organizational frame and focus for rich welter of detail generated by workshop discussionsEnabled detailed comparison across the scenarios on issues critical to stakeholders and policy-makers.
Christian Crews, M.S. FuturesPitney Bowes
Andy Hines, M.S. FuturesTerry Grim, M.S. FuturesSocial Technologies
Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. FuturesInfinite Futures
“The VERGE framework has proven extremely valuable at Pitney Bowes in translating thinking about the future into innovation and strategic decision-making. We've used VERGE in several invention and strategy contexts to organize and make sense of the changes in the customer communications environment. ...In addition, the immediacy of VERGE content provokes leaders to shift strategies ahead of potential disruptive change, and to see these disruptions as opportunities, not threats.”
Christian CrewsPitney Bowes
VERGEEthnographic Futures Framework
Focus not on the drivers, but on the impacts: How does change ripple out across the various segments of human experience?
Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not.
Michele Bowman and Richard Lum
Goal: Use the EFF to imagine how 2050 in your scenario might differ significantly from today, and identify what changes might occur between now and 2050 to create your scenario.
• Major actors:–Winners?–Losers?–Businesses?–Organizations?–Nations?
Personalise this, eg, young female entrepreneur; senior environmental regulatory officer; teen consumer; etc….
Exercise 1, making change distinct:
The processes and technology through which we create goods & services
The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we aquire and
use them
Social structures & relationships which link
people and organizations
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
Verge/EFF: scenario building focused on people:
EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of AndSpace Consulting
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us,
including:
Social Values & AttitudesScientific Models
CultureEconomic Systems
ReligionPolitics & Public Policy
What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?
Example: radical biotechnology:No extinction exists between ‘natural’ and ‘artificial’; highly elastic notions of what ‘human’ looks like…
Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations,
including:
DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle Groups
Work & EconomyHabitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & PracticesGovernment
International RelationsEducation
How will we live together on planet Earth?
Example: radical biotechnology:New ‘synthetic’ ethnicities; some ecosystems treated as living works of art; international regulatory compacts to monitorImpacts of bio-designs.
The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including:
Information TechnologyMusic
MediaVisual ArtsLanguage
Space
What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things?
Example: radical biotechnology:DNA-based computing possible; gifts of bio-designed life the new Valentine bouquets; genetically engineered organic sculptures…
The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services,
including:
EngineeringWealth
ManufacturingInnovation Processes
Life SciencesMaterials Sciences
Nanotechnology
As human beings what will we be inspired to create?
Example: radical biotechnology:Many new materials ‘manufactured’ on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’ monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc…
The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy
them, including:
Consumer GoodsEnergy
Food & AgricultureHouse & Home
Entertainment & LeisureHealthcare
Natural Resources
Touch Points
How will we use the earth’s resources?
Example: radical biotechnology:More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to others of their kind, optimise their intake / output of energy and waste….
You have been assigned a scenario to explore.Your task is to consider what changes might arise from now until 2050 given the drivers defining your scenario. Using the discussion questions below, imagine how 2050 in your
scenario might differ significantly from life today.
What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?
How will we live together on planet Earth?
What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things?
As human beings what will we be inspired to create?
How will we use the earth’s resources?
1st horizon
2nd horizon
3rd horizon
Time
Dominanceof model
YourScenario
2050Drivers
Impacts
Impacts
Impacts
ImpactsImpacts
Impacts
2010 2020 2030 20502040
What would make this happen?Create a timeline.
Reporting back.
• You have ONLY TEN MINUTES, so…– Choose the most vivid details to make
news headlines for your future, e.g.:• Headlines,• People in the news,• Newsworthy events, breaking news
– Be bold, be brief, be specific.
Characters and their organizations, conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:
• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:
• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how their impacts might emerge over the timeline;
• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict and collaborate;
• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do they generate as people and issues interact?
• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!
Exercise 2, adding details:
How is 2050 different from 2009?
• Scenarios tell a vivid and plausible story about a possible future
• Drivers and emerging issues of change redefine who has resources and power
• New and old characters interact to create events in this new context
• Their interactions include conflict and tensions as well as new collaborations
• The scenario story describes not only what’s happening in 2050, but how 2050 happened: the timeline.
The processes and technology through which we create goods & services
The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we
acquire and use them
Social structures & relationships which
link people and organizations
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
Verge/EFF: scenario building focused on people:
EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of AndSpace Consulting
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us, including:
Social Values & AttitudesScientific ModelsCultureEconomic SystemsReligionPolitics & Public Policy
Actors: opinion leaders in the news (bloggers? virtual reality celebs?); scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revplutionaries… who are they and what new models and paradigms are they proposing?
New concepts, ideas, and paradigms
Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations, including:
Actors: how do businesses work together in this future -- how do unions and businesses relate? Who are the key NGOs? Is the UN still relevant? What’s the most important government agency? How do families work?
The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including:
Information TechnologyMusic MediaVisual ArtsLanguageSpace
What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things?
Actors: who’s the most influential news source, and why? Who are the newest celebs and what do they promote? What’s the biggest media company? What’s the new diplomatic language?
The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services, including:
Actors: who are the angel investors in this future? Who manufactures goods, and where -- what’s the newest big MNC/TNC? What is the ‘next big thing’ in this future, and who is the “Bill Gates”? What universities produce the most discoveries? Where and how is food produced?
The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them, including:
Actors: what is the equivalent of a shopping centre? Who owns it? Is the line between producing food and consuming it distinct or blurred? Does everyone own their own home -- are homes detached, or are flats the norm? What’s the biggest energy company? What organisation provides healthcare? Who handles waste?
1st horizon
2nd horizon
3rd horizon
Time
Dominanceof model
YourScenario
2050
Drivers
Impacts
Impacts
2010 2020 2030 20502040
Who and what would make this happen?Create a timeline.
Actors
Actors
Actors
ActorsEventsEvents
Events
Events
Events
Impacts
Events
Reporting back.• Inter-group diplomacy: have your rapporteur
compare notes with your paired group’s rapporteur:– Identify two common / similar events or conditions within
your scenario emerging from your discussions;– Identify two events or conditions within your scenario that
are unique to each of your groups -- let the other rapporteur ID it for you.
• Both groups working on a scenario offer a single report with 5 highlights: 3 common and 2 unique.
• Based on this, the plenary will vote on suggested names for the three scenarios.
