Summer 2011A Climate Outlook

Warm or ColdWet or Dry

Matt MasekNWS Meteorologist, WFO North Platte , NE

May 25, 2011

Today’s OutlineRevisit last year (2010)What has happened this spring (2011)Summer Outlook (2011)

North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)

North Platte Spring (March, April, May)North Platte Summer (June, July, August)

North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)

MAY MAY

2010 2011

North Platte Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)

Valentine Spring/Summer 2010 (2011)

Valentine Spring (March, April, May)Valentine Summer (June, July, August)

ValentineSpring/Summer 2010 (2011)

MAY MAY

2010 2011

ValentineSpring/Summer 2010 (2011)

ENSOEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)3 Phases – Based on a section of the southern

Pacific Ocean (region Niño 3.4) temperature, departure from normal.ENSO Warm (3 months +0.5°C) - El NiñoENSO NeutralENSO Cool (3 months -0.5°C) - La Niña

Effects on the United StatesMost prevalent in Winter MonthsHurricane Season

Winter Months (Dec – Feb)

ENSO 2010Summer 2010 Phase

Weakening El Niño

Winter 2010-11 Phase Moderate-strong

La NiñaSummer 2011 Phase

Weakening La Niña

2010 to 2011 Opposites

U.S. Drought Monitor

After an El Nino Winter

After an La Niña Winter

So what is expected for the rest of the Spring and

Summer of 2011?

CPC OutlooksCPC – Climate Prediction Center6 to 10 day outlook & 8 to 14 day outlooks are

produced daily (Above Normal, Normal, Below Normal)

One month outlook and 3 month outlooks issued on the third Thursday of the month (Tercile Forecast)

One month outlook updated on the last day of the month (Tercile Forecast)

6 to 10 Day OutlookMay 30 – June 3

8 to 14 Day OutlookJune 1 – June 7

CPC Long Range OutlooksTercile Forecast (What?)3 Categories (both Temperature & Precipitation)

Above Normal (33.3%)Normal (33.4%)Below Normal (33.3%)

No shading is NOT normal expectedNo shading is not enough skill to predict one

way or the other (Labeled EC or Equal Chance for any of the three categories to happen)

Summer OutlookJune

Summer OutlookJune – July – August

Why?June – Weakening La Niña, Atmosphere still

acting like La Niña - more active northern storm track

JJA – ENSO becoming neutral, transition period difficult to predict, when La Niña pattern disappears

??Potential??Heat “bubble” across southwestern U.S. and

southern plains could develop and become dominating weather pattern for western and central Nebraska

More likely over southwest NebraskaIf “heat ridge” does develop, above normal

temperatures and dry will become more widespread, possible drought?

***www.weather.gov/northplatte***

Summer 2011 No Clear Signs

Thank YouQuestions ???