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SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006. AGENDA. Introduction Stock Market Review Industry Review Company Review Investment Thesis Recommendation. INTRODUCTION. Sunrise Senior Living, Inc is a provider of senior living services Business Model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006 April 27, 2006
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Page 1: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc.SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc.

April 27, 2006April 27, 2006

Page 2: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 3: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

• Sunrise Senior Living, Inc is a provider of senior living services

• Business Model

─ Provide range of Senior Living Services

─ Develop Senior Living communities for third parties

• Geographies covered

─ US, Canada, UK & Germany

• Stock Ticker : SRZ

Page 4: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

COMPANY BACKGROUNDCOMPANY BACKGROUND

• Approximately 3/4th of the company held by Institutionals

• Component of

─ S&P Small Cap 600 Index,

─ NYSE Healthcare Index,

─ S&P 1500 Composite Index

Stock Ownership

Insiders13%

Others14%

Institutional & MFs73%

• Founded in 1981 by current CEO Paul J Klaassen

• Listed in 1996

Page 5: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 6: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STOCK MARKET REVIEWSTOCK MARKET REVIEW

• US markets have returned < 10% in last 5 years

• US Stock Markets lagging behind world markets

• YTD MSCI US Index is the second worst performer

Page 7: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 8: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

INDUSTRY REVIEWINDUSTRY REVIEW

• Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ) is classified under :

– Long Term Care Facilities (Yahoo Finance)

– Health Care Facilities (GICS)

CCRC – Continued Care Retirement Centers, Source: American Senior Housing Association, Citigroup

CCRC, 16%

Assisted Living, 13%

Independent Living, 13%

Skilled Nursing, 58%

Industry Revenues - $145 billion

SRZ presence in Non - Nursing areas ($60 bn Industry)

Page 9: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

INDUSTRY REVIEWINDUSTRY REVIEW

• Fragmented Industry with 2.8% market share for SRZ

─ Top 10 companies control only 12.5% of the market

• Recent consolidation in the Industry

─ Average price paid for Assisted Living Facility in M&A transactions increased 54% in 2005 to $115,600 per bed

• Over last 2 years the industry has seen a rebound

─ Beds have grown by 0.7% CAGR

─ Revenues have grown by 3% CAGR

(Source: American Senior Housing Association, Citigroup)

Page 10: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 11: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

COMPANY REVIEWCOMPANY REVIEW

• Largest Operator of Senior Living Communities

• 415 ‘communities’ across the globe

– Canada – 11 UK – 5 Germany – 2

(Source: American Senior Housing Association, Citigroup)

• 11 new communities added in Q1 of 2006

• Upscale metropolitan presence

• Only company in the industry focusing on ‘Management Model’

Page 12: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

SERVICES & COMMUNITIESSERVICES & COMMUNITIES

• Managed communities share increased from 10% in 2000 to 47% in 2005

• Presence in Skilled Nursing limited

Sunrise - Types of Services

Assisted Living67%

Independent Living24%

Skilled Nursing

9%

Bed (Dec'05) - 52,925

Sunrise - Ownership Pattern

Managed , 198 , 47%

Joint Ventures, 156 , 38%

Consolidated, 61 , 15%

Communities (Dec'05) - 415Communities (Dec'05) - 415

Source: 10k, Citigroup

Page 13: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

OWNERSHIP PATTERNOWNERSHIP PATTERN

• Consolidated Communities

– Owned & Leased by SRZ

• Joint Ventures Communities

– 5 – 8% Management Fees + 20 – 25% equity income

• Managed Communities

– No ownership

– 5 – 8% Management Fees

Page 14: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

$ mn

Mgmt & professional services - operating communities 188.01

Community contract services reimbursement 1,235.61

Mgmt & professional services - pre-opened communities 40.72

Resident fees 355.15

Total operating revenue 1,819.48

Other income:

Operating communities 0.41

Pre-opened communities 8.82

Total Other Income 9.23

Total Income 1,828.71

Operating expenses:

Reimbursable community contract services 1,235.61

Mgmt & professional services - pre-opened communities 31.54

Community operating 272.62

Community lease 48.40

General and administrative 90.72

Total operating expenses 1,678.88

EBITDA 149.83

EBITDA Margin 8.19%

Adjusted EBITDA Margin 25.26%

INCOME STATEMENT SNAPSHOTINCOME STATEMENT SNAPSHOTReimbursable expenses for Managed communities – pass through

Services (site selection, zoning & design) prior to transferring of land to JV

Services (construction supervision, training, marketing) after transferring of property to JV

Delivery of senior living services to the residents

Income statement for year ended Dec 2005

Removing the effect of the reimbursements

Page 15: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

GROWING PHASE FOR SUNRISEGROWING PHASE FOR SUNRISE

• Revenue CAGR of 49% over last 4 years

• Acquisitions propelled managed communities in 2003

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Rev

enu

es (

$mn

)

Acquistions helped revenue jump in 2003

106 106 81 66 60 61

41 55 100 120 125 156

187 195212

1723

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005

No

of

Co

mm

un

itie

s

Owned Joint Ventures Managed

Page 16: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

GROWTH THROUGH ACQUISITIONSGROWTH THROUGH ACQUISITIONS

Target Period Price ($ million)

Details

The Fountains Jul-05 67 18 properties (16 JV , 1 wholly-owned, and 1

managed with no ownership)

Greystone Communities

May-05 45 14 management service properties

Eden Care Nov-03 n/a 22 management services properties

Marriott Senior Living

Mar-03 120 129 properties (including 108 management services

and 21 leased properties)

Page 17: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

RETURNS ON AN UPSCALERETURNS ON AN UPSCALE

• Net Income increasing as margin bounced back in 2005

• Decline in margins because of shift to Managed Communities

• ROE & ROIC showing an uptrend

10.00%11.73%

13.01%13.79%

4.90%

6.55%

4.79%

5.85%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005

Return on Equity Return on Invested Capital

491547

622

507

797

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Net

In

com

e ($

mn

)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Net Income Adjusted EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Page 18: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STRONG BALANCE SHEETSTRONG BALANCE SHEET

• Net Debt in 2005 is in negative territory

• Cash locked in Net Working Capital reducing

• Falling Free Cash Flow suggests expansion mode

284

120

50

(22)

140

71 78 75

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2002 2003 2004 2005

($ m

n)

Net Debt Net Working Capital

311

264

185

49

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2002 2003 2004 2005

Fre

e C

ash

Flo

w (

$ m

n)

Free Cash Flow

Page 19: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STOCK PERFORMANCESTOCK PERFORMANCE

• Outperformed the

S&P 500 by 9% in the

past 6 months

• Outperformed the

S&P Healthcare Index

by approx 130% in

the past 5 years

Page 20: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Competitors Analysis

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 21: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

OUTPERFORMED COMPETITION CONSISTENTLYOUTPERFORMED COMPETITION CONSISTENTLY

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nov

-03

Jan-

04

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

Nov

-04

Jan-

05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

Nov

-05

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

Sto

ck P

rice

(in

dex

ed t

o N

ov

18 2

003)

Genesis SRZ Kindred

Extendicare Manor Care

• No dividends paid by SRZ

• Stock Split of 2:1 on Oct 4, 2005

Page 22: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

COMPETITORS ANALYSISCOMPETITORS ANALYSIS

• Third largest player in terms of Market Capitalization

• One of the highest Return on Assets

• Trading at highest 5 yr PEG ratio (estimates by Yahoo Finance)

SRZ Manor Care Brookdale Senior

Extendicare Kindred Healthcare

Genesis Healthcare

Market Cap (billion) 1.95 3.43 2.42 1.51 0.92 0.84Employees 22,366 58,000 9,860 37,600 38,900 35,000Revenue (billion) 1.82 3.42 0.8 1.71 3.92 1.71Gross Margin (%) 12.71% 17.47% 13.58% 13.56% 78.35% 99.02%EBITDA (million) 194.66 438.16 24.82 236.76 313.33 168.69Operating Margins (%) 7.58% 8.59% -3.07% 10.17% 5.36% 6.30%Net Income (million) 79.74 160.96 -24.33 86.39 128.63 43.76EPS 1.67 1.89 -0.41 1.01 3.2 2.16Return on Assets (%) 7.77% 7.97% -1.28% 8.18% 7.83% 5.33%Return on Equity (%) 13.79% 18.31% -15.17% 21.00% 16.18% 7.02%P/E (x) 23.15 22.9 N/A 21.89 7.66 20.08PEG (5 yr expected): 1.9 1.33 N/A N/A 1.15 1.49

Source: Yahoo Finance

Page 23: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 24: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STRONG INDUSTRY GROWTH OVER 15 YRSSTRONG INDUSTRY GROWTH OVER 15 YRS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2010E 2015E 2020E

No

of

bed

s ('

000)

Independent Living Assisted Living Skilled Nursing CCRC

1.6% CAGR

2005 2010E 2015E 2020E

US Population 286 298 310 323

75+ 17.9 18.5 19.6 22.3

85+ 4.9 5.8 6.4 6.7

75+ (as % of total) 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 9.0%

Elderly population expected

to grow at CAGR of 1.3%

No of beds expected to grow

at 1.6% CAGR

(Source: American Senior Housing Association, American Healthcare Association, National Investment Center, Citigroup)

Page 25: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STRONG BUSINESS MODELSTRONG BUSINESS MODEL

• 415 communities with 53000 beds in 35 states

• Future expansion into International locations

• Insulated from reimbursement risks

• About 91% of revenues of 2005 derived from private pay

• Growth through acquisitions could continue

• Management Model

• Sale and long-term management contracts

Page 26: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

CONSERVATIVE REVENUE GROWTHCONSERVATIVE REVENUE GROWTH

61 61 61 61 61

156 172 189 208 228

198218

240264

290

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

Owned Joint Ventures Managed

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

Rev

enu

es (

$mn

)

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

Gro

wth

in

Rev

enu

es (

%)

Cost Assumptions 2006 - 2009% of SalesMgmt & professional services 77%Community operating 77%General and administrative 5%

Lease rent per community 793,459 (growing at 10% p.a.)

Revenue Assumptions 2006 - 2009Management & Professional Services 5%Community Contract services reimb 5%Resident Fees 5%

Consolidated 0%Unconsolidated ventures 10%Managed 10%

Page 27: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

MARGINS EXPANDINGMARGINS EXPANDING

• EBITDA Margin expansion -

• Moving to management model

• Increasing expertise in operating communities

• EBIT Margin expansion because of minimal capex

5.85%

7.23%7.15%

7.02%6.85%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

EB

IT M

arg

in (

%)

797

972

1,150

1,322

1,511

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

Net

Inco

me

($ m

n)

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

Net Income Adjusted EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Page 28: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

CONSERVATIVE CAPITAL STRUCTURECONSERVATIVE CAPITAL STRUCTURE

• Increasing ROA due to decreasing debt & limited capex

• Net Income growth higher than EBIT

• Income from excess cash

7.87%

7.54%

7.22%

6.82%6.55%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

Ret

urn

on A

sset

s (%

) 18.4%

21.9%

14.9%14.3%

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

Net

In

com

e ($

mn

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Gro

wth

in

Net

In

com

e (%

)

Net Income Net Income Growth (RHS)

Page 29: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Valuation

• Recommendation

Page 30: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

VALUATIONVALUATION

Beta 0.77 Debt 11.1%

Rf 4.75% Equity 88.9%

Rm – Rf 5.00% g 4.0%

Re 8.60% Tax Rate 33%

Rd 6.40%

• Rf – 6 month Treasury rate

• Rm - Rf – Historical Risk Premium

WACC = 8.12%

Page 31: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWDISCOUNTED CASH FLOW

• Terminal Value assumptions

• EBIT – growing at sustained growth rate

• Working Capital – assumed to be 20% of 2009

• Capex – Maintenance caped because of move to management model

2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E TVEBIT 140,937 161,181 183,498 208,063 EBIT (1-t) 94,428 107,991 122,944 139,402 144,978

Chg in WC 84,076 49,345 8,867 73,103 14,621 Chg in Capex 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 5,000

FCF 352 48,646 104,077 56,299 3,040,253 DCF 314 38,755 74,007 35,732 1,929,600

Value 2,078,408 Debt 63,994 Equity Value 2,014,414 Per Share Value 39.93

Page 32: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

DCF SENSITIVE TO WACC & GROWTH RATEDCF SENSITIVE TO WACC & GROWTH RATE

• DCF value sensitive to WACC & growth rate

• Sustained growth rate of 4%

7.75% 8.00% 8.12% 8.25% 8.50% 8.75% 9.00% 9.25%

3.00% 34.52 32.88 32.12 31.39 30.04 28.81 27.68 26.64

3.25% 36.44 34.61 33.78 32.96 31.47 30.12 28.88 27.75

3.50% 38.59 36.54 35.61 34.70 33.05 31.56 30.20 28.96

3.75% 41.00 38.69 37.65 36.63 34.79 33.14 31.64 30.28

4.00% 43.74 41.11 39.93 38.79 36.73 34.89 33.23 31.72

4.25% 46.87 43.86 42.52 41.22 38.90 36.83 34.98 33.31

4.50% 50.48 47.00 45.45 43.98 41.33 39.00 36.93 35.07

4.75% 54.69 50.62 48.83 47.12 44.09 41.44 39.10 37.02

5.00% 59.67 54.84 52.74 50.75 47.25 44.21 41.55 39.21

Growth rate

WACC

Page 33: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Portfolio Diversification

• Recommendation

Page 34: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATIONPORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION

AEOS CPRT FR JKHY JPM KMB MS MVSN SRCL WAG

CPRT 0.1290

FR 0.1533 0.1678

JKHY 0.1216 0.0943 0.1241

JPM 0.1764 0.1360 0.1507 0.1819

KMB 0.0225 0.0842 0.1165 0.1100 0.1013

MS 0.0980 0.1141 0.0931 0.1475 0.2324 0.1095

MVSN 0.1400 0.1333 0.1037 0.2541 0.1834 0.0476 0.1256

SRCL 0.0815 0.0826 0.0875 0.1596 0.1438 0.0803 0.0554 0.1153

WAG 0.0697 0.0483 0.0504 0.0617 0.1137 0.0427 0.2867 0.0611 0.0533

SRZ 0.0549 0.0824 0.0969 0.1119 0.1350 0.0788 0.0421 0.1535 0.0912 0.0078

• Low correlation with all the stocks

• Highest correlation with MVSN of 0.1535

Page 35: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

Page 36: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

BUY 600 SHARESBUY 600 SHARES

• At $37.53 – represents 7.13% of portfolio (as on April 26, 2006)

• Portfolio standard deviation drops from 1.38 to 1.27

INVESTMENT THESIS

1. Largest Operator of Senior Living

2. Strong Industry growth

3. Move to Management Model

4. Conservative Capital Structure

5. Net Income growth ~ 14% for next couple of years

6. Stock price includes $6.61 cash as of Dec 2005

Page 37: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

Page 38: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

AGENDAAGENDA

• Introduction

• Stock Market Review

• Industry Review

• Company Review

• Investment Thesis

• Recommendation

• Appendix

Page 39: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

RECOMMENDATION ANALYSISRECOMMENDATION ANALYSIS

No of Shares % of Portfolio Portfolio

100 1.26% 1.3085

200 2.49% 1.3002

300 3.70% 1.2931

400 4.87% 1.2874

500 6.01% 1.2829

600 7.13% 1.2795

Page 40: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATION (WITHOUT SRZ)(WITHOUT SRZ)

Weights W2 Variance W2 * Variance

AEOS 0.1808 0.0327 14.9589 0.4890 CPRT 0.0900 0.0081 12.6777 0.1027

FR 0.1352 0.0183 1.7199 0.0315 JKHY 0.0630 0.0040 8.4676 0.0336 JPM 0.1344 0.0181 5.7489 0.1038 KMB 0.0601 0.0036 2.9919 0.0108 MS 0.0878 0.0077 7.8467 0.0605

MVSN 0.0150 0.0002 24.6173 0.0055 SRCL 0.0899 0.0081 10.1861 0.0823 WAG 0.1440 0.02072 3.9430 0.0817

without SRZ 1.0013

Portfolio standard deviation = SQRT (1.0013 + 0.7368)

Portfolio standard deviation = 1.3183

Page 41: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATION (WITHOUT SRZ)(WITHOUT SRZ)Co-Variance W1 W2 2*W1*W2*Cov Co-Variance W1 W2 2*W1*W2*Cov

AEOS CPRT 1.7764 0.1808 0.0900 0.0578 JKHY KMB 0.5537 0.0630 0.0601 0.0042

AEOS FR 0.7774 0.1808 0.1352 0.0380 JKHY MS 1.2022 0.0630 0.0878 0.0133

AEOS JKHY 1.3682 0.1808 0.0630 0.0312 JKHY MVSN 3.6682 0.0630 0.0150 0.0069

AEOS JPM 1.6362 0.1808 0.1344 0.0795 JKHY SRCL 1.4818 0.0630 0.0899 0.0168

AEOS KMB 0.1504 0.1808 0.0601 0.0033 JKHY WAG 0.3567 0.0630 0.1440 0.0065

AEOS MS 1.0617 0.1808 0.0878 0.0337 JKHY SRZ 1.0387 0.0630 - -

AEOS MVSN 2.6872 0.1808 0.0150 0.0145 JPM KMB 0.4201 0.1344 0.0601 0.0068

AEOS SRCL 1.0056 0.1808 0.0899 0.0327 JPM MS 1.5609 0.1344 0.0878 0.0368

AEOS WAG 0.5355 0.1808 0.1440 0.0279 JPM MVSN 2.1818 0.1344 0.0150 0.0088

AEOS SRZ 0.6771 0.1808 - - JPM SRCL 1.1006 0.1344 0.0899 0.0266

CPRT FR 0.7834 0.0900 0.1352 0.0191 JPM WAG 0.5412 0.1344 0.1440 0.0209

CPRT JKHY 0.9771 0.0900 0.0630 0.0111 JPM SRZ 1.0332 0.1344 - -

CPRT JPM 1.1611 0.0900 0.1344 0.0281 KMB MS 0.5305 0.0601 0.0878 0.0056

CPRT KMB 0.5187 0.0900 0.0601 0.0056 KMB MVSN 0.4082 0.0601 0.0150 0.0007

CPRT MS 1.1381 0.0900 0.0878 0.0180 KMB SRCL 0.4431 0.0601 0.0899 0.0048

CPRT MVSN 2.3553 0.0900 0.0150 0.0063 KMB WAG 0.1466 0.0601 0.1440 0.0025

CPRT SRCL 0.9385 0.0900 0.0899 0.0152 KMB SRZ 0.4351 0.0601 - -

CPRT WAG 0.3413 0.0900 0.1440 0.0088 MS MVSN 1.7461 0.0878 0.0150 0.0046

CPRT SRZ 0.9357 0.0900 - - MS SRCL 0.4955 0.0878 0.0899 0.0078

FR JKHY 0.4736 0.1352 0.0630 0.0081 MS WAG 1.5945 0.0878 0.1440 0.0403

FR JPM 0.4738 0.1352 0.1344 0.0172 MS SRZ 0.3761 0.0878 - -

FR KMB 0.2644 0.1352 0.0601 0.0043 MVSN SRCL 1.8257 0.0150 0.0899 0.0049

FR MS 0.3421 0.1352 0.0878 0.0081 MVSN WAG 0.6024 0.0150 0.1440 0.0026

FR MVSN 0.6747 0.1352 0.0150 0.0027 MVSN SRZ 2.4303 0.0150 - -

FR SRCL 0.3660 0.1352 0.0899 0.0089 SRCL WAG 0.3378 0.0899 0.1440 0.0087

FR WAG 0.1312 0.1352 0.1440 0.0051 SRCL SRZ 0.9289 0.0899 - -

FR SRZ 0.4056 0.1352 - - WAG SRZ 0.0497 0.1440 - -

JKHY JPM 1.2694 0.0630 0.1344 0.0215 0.7368

Page 42: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATION (WITH SRZ)(WITH SRZ)

Portfolio standard deviation = SQRT (0.9153 + 0.7218)

Portfolio standard deviation = 1.2795

Weights W2 Variance W2 * Variance

AEOS 0.1679 0.0282 14.9589 0.4218 CPRT 0.0836 0.0070 12.6777 0.0886

FR 0.1256 0.0158 1.7199 0.0271 JKHY 0.0585 0.0034 8.4676 0.0290 JPM 0.1248 0.0156 5.7489 0.0895 KMB 0.0558 0.0031 2.9919 0.0093 MS 0.0816 0.0067 7.8467 0.0522

MVSN 0.0139 0.0002 24.6173 0.0047 SRCL 0.0835 0.0070 10.1861 0.0710 WAG 0.1337 0.0179 3.9430 0.0705 SRZ 0.0713 0.00508 10.1831 0.0517

with SRZ 0.9153

Page 43: SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006

RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge

STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATION (WITH SRZ)(WITH SRZ)Co-Variance W1 W2 2*W1*W2*Cov Co-Variance W1 W2 2*W1*W2*Cov

AEOS CPRT 1.7764 0.1679 0.0836 0.0499 JKHY KMB 0.5537 0.0585 0.0558 0.0036

AEOS FR 0.7774 0.1679 0.1256 0.0328 JKHY MS 1.2022 0.0585 0.0816 0.0115

AEOS JKHY 1.3682 0.1679 0.0585 0.0269 JKHY MVSN 3.6682 0.0585 0.0139 0.0060

AEOS JPM 1.6362 0.1679 0.1248 0.0686 JKHY SRCL 1.4818 0.0585 0.0835 0.0145

AEOS KMB 0.1504 0.1679 0.0558 0.0028 JKHY WAG 0.3567 0.0585 0.1337 0.0056

AEOS MS 1.0617 0.1679 0.0816 0.0291 JKHY SRZ 1.0387 0.0585 0.0713 0.0087

AEOS MVSN 2.6872 0.1679 0.0139 0.0125 JPM KMB 0.4201 0.1248 0.0558 0.0058

AEOS SRCL 1.0056 0.1679 0.0835 0.0282 JPM MS 1.5609 0.1248 0.0816 0.0318

AEOS WAG 0.5355 0.1679 0.1337 0.0240 JPM MVSN 2.1818 0.1248 0.0139 0.0076

AEOS SRZ 0.6771 0.1679 0.0713 0.0162 JPM SRCL 1.1006 0.1248 0.0835 0.0229

CPRT FR 0.7834 0.0836 0.1256 0.0164 JPM WAG 0.5412 0.1248 0.1337 0.0181

CPRT JKHY 0.9771 0.0836 0.0585 0.0096 JPM SRZ 1.0332 0.1248 0.0713 0.0184

CPRT JPM 1.1611 0.0836 0.1248 0.0242 KMB MS 0.5305 0.0558 0.0816 0.0048

CPRT KMB 0.5187 0.0836 0.0558 0.0048 KMB MVSN 0.4082 0.0558 0.0139 0.0006

CPRT MS 1.1381 0.0836 0.0816 0.0155 KMB SRCL 0.4431 0.0558 0.0835 0.0041

CPRT MVSN 2.3553 0.0836 0.0139 0.0055 KMB WAG 0.1466 0.0558 0.1337 0.0022

CPRT SRCL 0.9385 0.0836 0.0835 0.0131 KMB SRZ 0.4351 0.0558 0.0713 0.0035

CPRT WAG 0.3413 0.0836 0.1337 0.0076 MS MVSN 1.7461 0.0816 0.0139 0.0040

CPRT SRZ 0.9357 0.0836 0.0713 0.0111 MS SRCL 0.4955 0.0816 0.0835 0.0067

FR JKHY 0.4736 0.1256 0.0585 0.0070 MS WAG 1.5945 0.0816 0.1337 0.0348

FR JPM 0.4738 0.1256 0.1248 0.0148 MS SRZ 0.3761 0.0816 0.0713 0.0044

FR KMB 0.2644 0.1256 0.0558 0.0037 MVSN SRCL 1.8257 0.0139 0.0835 0.0042

FR MS 0.3421 0.1256 0.0816 0.0070 MVSN WAG 0.6024 0.0139 0.1337 0.0022

FR MVSN 0.6747 0.1256 0.0139 0.0024 MVSN SRZ 2.4303 0.0139 0.0713 0.0048

FR SRCL 0.3660 0.1256 0.0835 0.0077 SRCL WAG 0.3378 0.0835 0.1337 0.0075

FR WAG 0.1312 0.1256 0.1337 0.0044 SRCL SRZ 0.9289 0.0835 0.0713 0.0111

FR SRZ 0.4056 0.1256 0.0713 0.0073 WAG SRZ 0.0497 0.1337 0.0713 0.0009

JKHY JPM 1.2694 0.0585 0.1248 0.0185 0.7218


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