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Proprietary & confidential. © Decision Lens 2013
Super Bowl XLVII Prediction
Super Bowl Predictions
! Rely on many factors
! Quantifiable measures of team performance
! Intangible assessments of momentum
! We can draw on the predictions of a large number of
experts in the field
2
Decision Lens Application
! Blend together quantitative and qualitative
assessments
! Sensitivity analysis allows for examination of “what-if”
scenarios
! Hierarchy process works well for breaking down
criteria, e.g. offense, defense, and special teams
3
Three Main Factors
! Advanced Statistics
! Expert/Group Assessments ! Vegas Lines, Pundits, National Polls
! Intangibles ! Momentum, Previous Super Bowl Experience, etc.
4
Advanced Statistics
! Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
! Developed by Football Outsiders
! Accounts for outside factors to provide accurate
assessment of offense, defense, and special teams
! Publicly available results
5
Expert/Group Assessments
! Point spreads and moneyline bets show how Vegas
oddsmakers view the probabilities of each team’s
victory
! Football Outsiders uses their DVOA formulas and
others to make a prediction
! Crowd-sourced opinions from ESPN’s SportsNation
poll of over 300,000 fans
6
Intangibles
! Momentum, injury risk, coaching record
! Ray Lewis
! Ability to analyze qualitative factors a strength for
Decision Lens
7
Results
Three Scenarios ! “Stat-Heavy”
! “Defense Wins Championships”
! “Trust The Experts”
Score of 1 means best in the league in every category and 100%
chance to win game
Score of 0 means worst in the league in every category and 0% chance to win game
8
Stat-Heavy
! 60% of weight is allocated to advanced statistics ! Defense equal importance to offense ! Passing > Rushing ! Special teams mild impact
! Total scores: San Francisco .589, Baltimore .536 Close San Francisco win
9
Defense Wins Championships
! Less weight is allocated to statistics, but that weight is more heavily allocated to defense
! Total scores: San Francisco .628, Baltimore .476 San Francisco’s defensive advantage is larger than their advantage in other areas
10
Trust The Experts
! More weight is allocated to the predictive measures of Vegas oddsmakers, Football Outsiders, and ESPN’s crowd-sourced poll
! Total scores: San Francisco .611, Baltimore .461 Experts are confident in San Francisco’s chances of victory
11
How could Baltimore win?
! Baltimore has advantages in two categories ! Special Teams performance
! Intangible factor of Ray Lewis
! Situations in which Baltimore scores higher depend on one or both of those factors having a much higher weight than normal
12
Conclusion
! Decision Lens predicts a medium-sized victory for
San Francisco, neither blowout nor nailbiter
! Most likely scenario of a Baltimore victory involves a
game-changing special teams play
! Jacoby Jones (BAL) has 3 return tds this season
! David Akers (SF) has had an off year kicking
13
Conclusion
14
Stat Heavy Conclusion
15
Conclusion – Highest Level Criteria
16
17
For more information about this presentation and
sports related predictions please contact
Gavin Byrnes – [email protected]
He loves this stuff.