Supply and demand: Cemig GT and the National Grid

Belo Horizonte, May 28, 2012

Marcus Vinícius de Castro Lobato

Supply and demand in Brazil’s grid (1)

Source: PMO of May 2011; analysis by Cemig; Presented at Apimec 2011.

Based on expectation of 5% annual GDP growth over 2011–15.

As seen from 2011

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Balanço (%) 3.6% 3.7% 7.7% 5.4% 3.5%Balanço 2,116 2,277 5,095 3,751 2,541Reserva 480 1,400 1,716 1,743 1,746Term 12,334 14,199 18,194 18,215 18,215Hidr 48,851 50,279 53,267 54,802 56,514Mercado 59,069 62,201 66,366 69,266 72,188

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

MW

-méd

ios

Ave

rag

e M

W

Surplus %Surplus, MWReserveThermalHydroMarket

2

Supply and demand in Brazil’s grid (2)

As seen from 2012

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Balanço (%) 1.3% 1.9% 6.0% 5.1% 2.3%Balanço 776 1,248 4,106 3,595 1,731Reserva 1,400 1,716 2,203 2,207 3,391Term 13,024 15,054 18,543 18,806 18,776Hidr 48,815 51,211 53,978 55,799 56,987Mercado 61,063 65,017 68,415 71,010 74,032

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

MW

-méd

ios

Source: PMO of May 2012; analysis by Cemig.

Based on expectation of 4.4% annual GDP growth over 2012–16.

Ave

rag

e M

W

Surplus %Surplus, MWReserveThermalHydroMarket

3

CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Conventional sources

Available for sales or trading Intermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading)

Free Market sales – new contracts Free Market sales (free consumers, and traders)

To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2nd time) Regulated market sales forecast

Regulated Market sales to distributors Standard operational agreement

Average MW

Own resources

Probable renewals Negotiations in progress

Purchases subject to conditions

Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2010; estimate for 2011

Copm

ponents

APIMEC 2011

4

Average MW

Own resources

Probable renewals Negotiations in progress

Purchases subject to conditions

Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2011; estimate for 2012

Copm

ponents

Available for sales or trading Intermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading)

Free Market sales – new contracts Free Market sales (free consumers, and traders)

To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2nd time) Regulated market sales forecast

Regulated Market sales to distributors Standard operational agreement

CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Conventional sources

APIMEC 2012

5

APIMEC 2012APIMEC 2011

Available for sales or trading Intermediation (transferred to Cemig Trading)

Free Market sales – new contracts Free Market sales (free consumers, and traders)

To be defined (conc. to be renewed for the 2nd time) Regulated market sales forecast

Regulated Market sales to distributors Standard operational agreement

Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2011; estimate for 2012

Secondary supply as transacted in spot market in 2010; estimate for 2011Average MW Average MW

Own resources

Probable renewals

Negotiations in progress

Purchases subject to conditions

Own resources

Probable renewals

Negotiations in progress

Purchases subject to conditions

CEMIG GT: Demand and SupplyConventional sources

6

Average MW

Purchases – Traders Sales with negotiation in progress

Purchases – Wind plants Probable renewals

Purchases – Small Thermal Sales already made

Purchases – Small Hydro

APIMEC 2011

CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Incentive-bearing sources

7

MW-médios

APIMEC 2012

CEMIG GT: Demand and Supply Incentive-bearing sources

Average MW

Purchases – Traders Sales with negotiation in progress

Purchases – Wind plants Probable renewals

Purchases – Small Thermal Sales already made

Purchases – Small Hydro

Purchases with conditions

Purchases in progress

8