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SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ESTIMATION ARGENTINA WHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN
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SUPPLY ELASTICITIESESTIMATION
ARGENTINAWHEAT- CORN – SOYBEAN
ARGENTINA - WHEAT: AREA and PRICES
0
1000
2000
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7000
8000
1960
1962
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1968
1970
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1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
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2004
2006
AG YEAR 1959/60- 05/06
AR
EA
(x1
000)
Ha
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
AR
$ (
2000
) /
To
n
AREA
PRICES
ARGENTINA - CORN: AREA and PRICES
0
1000
2000
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6000
1960
1962
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1978
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1986
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1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
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2004
2006
AG YEAR 1959/60- 05/06
AR
EA
(x1
000)
Ha
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
AR
$ (
2000
) /
To
n
AREA
PRICES
ARGENTINA - SUNFLOWER: AREA and PRICES
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
AG YEAR 1959/60- 05/06
AR
EA
(x10
00) H
a
0
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480
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AR
$ (2
000)
/ To
n
AREA
PRICES
ARGENTINA - SOYBEAN - AREA and PRICES
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
AG YEAR: 1964/65 - 05/06
AR
EA
(x1
000)
Ha
0
150
300
450
600
750
AR
$ (
2000
) /
To
n
AREA
PRICES
Argentina. Wheat. Price vs Area. 1959/60 - 04/05
1960 2006
1960 1983 2006
5000 6000 7000
Area (x 1000 Ha)
80
120
160
200
AR
$ (
200
0)
1960 2005
1960 1983 2005
2000 3000 4000 5000
Area (x1000) Ha
80
120
160
200
240
AR
$ (
200
0)
Argentina. Corn. Price vs Area. 1959/60 - 04/05
1960 2005
1960 1983 2005
1000 2000 3000 4000
Area (x1000) Ha
200
300
400
500
AR
$ (
200
0)
Argentina. Sunflower. Price vs Area. 1959/60 - 04/05
ARGENTINA - SOYBEAN - AREA vs PRICES
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
AREA (x1000) Ha
AR
$ (
2000
) /
To
n
?
1965 2005
1965 1985 2005
0 5000 10000 15000
Area (x 1000 Ha)
200
300
400
500
AR
$ (
200
0)
/ To
n
Argentina. Soybean. Price vs Area. 1964/65 - 04/05
ARGENTINA - SOYBEAN - AREA: LEVEL and LOG
y = 0.17t + 3.62
R2 = 0.86
y = 37.4e0.17t
R2 = 0.86
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
AG YEAR: 1964/65 - 05/06
AR
EA
(x1
000)
Ha
0
2
4
6
8
10
LN
(AR
EA
)AREA
ln(AREA)
24
68
10Ln
Soj
a y
Tend
enci
as
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010year
Ln(Area Sembrada Soja) Tendencia lineal soja 1974-1995
Tendencia lineal soja 1965-1973 Tendencial lineal soja 1996-2005
Dinámica de la oferta agropecuaria
• Los modelos econométricos de oferta agropecuaria se han formulado en general a partir de series temporales generando estimaciones derivadas de la utilización tanto del modelo desarrollado por Nerlove (1958), o del modelo de Griliches (1960) para estimaciones de oferta agregada.
Enfoque clásico: Expectativas adaptativas y ajuste parcial
• Xt* = a + bPe
xt (1)
• Pext - Pe
x, t-1 = (Px, t-1 - Pex, t-1)
• Pext = Px, t-1 + ( 1 - ) Pe
x, t-1
• Por sustitución recurrente, puede escribirse:
• Pext = ( 1 - ) Pe
x, t-1 (2)
• Sustituyendo (2) en (1) resulta:
• Xt= a/ + b/ Px, t-1 + ( 1 - ) Xt-1 (3)
• Siguiendo una lógica similar a la empleada para el modelo de expectativas de precios, se puede escribir:
• Xt = X* t + (1-) Xt-1 (4)
• Donde (0 < < 1) es el coeficiente de ajuste parcial
• Suponiendo (modelo “naive”) que el precio esperado es el precio rezagado Px,
t-1 y sustituyendo (4) en (1):
• Xt = 1/ a + 1/ b Px, t-1 + (1-) Xt-1 (5)
(1) (2) Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja) Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja) Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja) Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja) Ln Precio Soja(t-1) 0.196 0.197 0.324 0.331
(1.79)* (1.77)* (2.24)** (2.24)** Ln Area Sembrada Soja(t-1) 0.735 0.740 0.769 0.779
(8.74)*** (8.46)*** (8.85)*** (8.57)*** Tendencia lineal soja 1965-1973 0.335 0.335 0.284 0.281
(3.19)*** (3.14)*** (2.56)** (2.49)** Tendencia lineal soja 1974-1995 0.231 0.230 0.188 0.185
(2.54)** (2.50)** (1.98)* (1.91)* Tendencial lineal soja 1996-2005 0.296 0.296 0.247 0.245
(3.32)*** (3.27)*** (2.59)** (2.53)** Dummy 1974-1995=1 0.551 0.547 0.495 0.486
(3.61)*** (3.52)*** (3.17)*** (3.05)*** Ln Precio de gasoil(t-1) -0.031 -0.054
(0.24) (0.42) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) -0.247 -0.257
(1.34) (1.36) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1)
Constant -1.270 -1.339 -0.663 -0.759
(1.77)* (1.71)* (0.79) (0.86) Observations 40 40 40 40 R-Cuadrado 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996
R-Cuadrado Adj 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.995 D-W 2.000 2.001 2.042 2.043
Elasticidad Soja-Soja 0.741 0.758 1.403 1.493 P-Value ADF Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Soja-Novillo Elasticidad Soja-Maiz -1.069 -1.159
Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Soja
(3) (4) Ln(Area
Sembrada Soja)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Soja) Ln Precio Soja(t-1) 0.176 0.177 0.265 0.273
(1.69) (1.68) (1.88)* (1.90)* Ln Area Sembrada
Soja(t-1) 0.751 0.758 0.773 0.784
(9.45)*** (9.19)*** (9.32)*** (9.05)*** Tendencia lineal soja
1965-1973 0.294 0.292 0.262 0.258
(2.92)*** (2.87)*** (2.46)** (2.39)** Tendencia lineal soja
1974-1995 0.217 0.216 0.189 0.185
(2.54)** (2.49)** (2.08)** (2.01)* Tendencial lineal soja
1996-2005 0.275 0.274 0.243 0.240
(3.26)*** (3.21)*** (2.67)** (2.61)** Dummy 1974-1995=1 0.483 0.476 0.450 0.440
(3.30)*** (3.20)*** (2.99)*** (2.86)*** Ln Precio de gasoil(t-
1) -0.050 -0.064
(0.40) (0.52) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) -0.170 -0.181
(0.94) (0.99) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1) 0.376 0.380 0.343 0.346
(2.30)** (2.29)** (2.05)** (2.04)* Constant -1.047 -1.155 -0.650 -0.762
(1.54) (1.56) (0.81) (0.91) Observations 40 40 40 40 R-Cuadrado 0.996 0.996 0.997 0.997
R-Cuadrado Adj 0.996 0.996 0.996 0.996 D-W 1.899 1.908 1.945 1.958
Elasticidad Soja-Soja 0.704 0.732 1.166 1.261 P-Value ADF
Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Elasticidad Soja-Novillo
1.509 1.572 1.510 1.602
Elasticidad Soja-Maiz -0.747 -0.836
Elasticidades de Corto Plazo para Soja(Usando Eq 3 y Eq 4)
(3) (4) DLn(Area
Sembrada Soja) DLn(Area
Sembrada Soja) DLn(Area
Sembrada Soja) DLn(Area
Sembrada Soja) D(Ln Precio
Soja(t-1)) 0.161 0.143 0.295 0.277
(1.31) (1.19) (2.56)** (2.41)** D(Ln Precio Novillo(t-1))
0.293 0.331 0.450 0.471
(1.65) (1.89)* (3.05)*** (3.22)*** ECT(t-1) -0.071 -0.078 -1.119 -1.115
(3.08)*** (3.41)*** (6.20)*** (6.38)*** D(Ln Precio Gasoil(t-1))
0.310 0.131
(1.67) (0.89) D(Ln Precio Maiz(t-1))
-0.201 -0.182
(1.55) (1.40) Constant 0.192 0.185 0.031 0.025
(1) (2) Ln(Area
Sembrada Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo) Ln Precio Trigo(t-1) 0.144 0.195 0.147 0.178
(1.81)* (2.20)** (1.92)* (2.04)** Ln Area Sembrada Trigo(t-1) 0.469 0.452 0.450 0.442
(3.57)*** (3.44)*** (3.55)*** (3.45)*** lnpgasoil1 0.081 0.049
(1.27) (0.75) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1) -0.265 -0.238
(2.11)** (1.81)* Ln Precio Maiz(t-1)
Constant 3.863 3.852 3.982 3.964
(3.09)*** (3.10)*** (3.30)*** (3.27)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005
Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994
Observations 46 46 46 46
R-squared 0.25 0.28 0.33 0.33 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.219 0.230 0.277 0.269
D-W 1.918 1.875 1.905 1.873 Elasticidad Trigo-Trigo 0.271 0.356 0.267 0.318 p-Value ADF residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Trigo-Maiz
Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1960-1995 Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1995-2005
P-Value Wald Test Soja Elasticidad Trigo-Novillo -0.482 -0.425
Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Trigo
(3) (4) (5) Ln(Area
Sembrada Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Trigo) Ln Precio Trigo(t-1) 0.279 0.273 0.304 0.304 0.306 0.303
(2.91)*** (2.73)*** (3.13)*** (3.01)*** (2.57)** (2.52)** Ln Area Sembrada Trigo(t-1) 0.332 0.332 0.369 0.369 0.444 0.441
(2.50)** (2.47)** (2.74)*** (2.70)** (3.45)*** (3.38)*** lnpgasoil1 -0.019 -0.001 0.035
(0.24) (0.01) (0.48) Ln Precio Novillo(t-1) -0.232 -0.236
(1.73)* (1.72)* Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) -0.201 -0.171
(1.79)* (1.32) Constant 5.152 5.174 4.997 4.998 4.246 4.184
(4.26)*** (4.21)*** (4.04)*** (3.97)*** (3.43)*** (3.33)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005 -0.138 -0.141 -0.185 -0.185
(1.50) (1.50) (2.05)** (2.00)* Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994 -0.145 -0.149 -0.193 -0.193
(1.64) (1.63) (2.23)** (2.15)** Observations 41 41 41 41 46 46
R-squared 0.42 0.42 0.37 0.37 0.31 0.31 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.338 0.319 0.301 0.281 0.257 0.243
D-W 2.159 2.175 2.243 2.244 2.083 2.034 Elasticidad Trigo-Trigo 0.418 0.410 0.483 0.482 0.550 0.542 p-Value ADF residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Trigo-Maiz -0.362 -0.306
Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1960-1995 -0.207 -0.210 -0.294 -0.294 Elasticidad Trigo-Soja 1995-2005 -0.217 -0.223 -0.306 -0.306
P-Value Wald Test Soja 0.460 0.460 0.424 0.509 Elasticidad Trigo-Novillo -0.347 -0.354
Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Trigo
(3) (4) (5) DLn(Area
Sembrada Trigo)
DLn(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
DLn(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
DLn(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
DLn(Area Sembrada
Trigo)
DLn(Area Sembrada
Trigo) D(Ln Precio Trigo(t-1))
0.261 0.258 0.302 0.301 0.283 0.279
(3.91)*** (3.86)*** (4.32)*** (4.28)*** (3.56)*** (3.49)*** D(Ln Precio Soja 1965-1995(t-1))
0.081 0.069 -0.015 -0.021
(0.97) (0.82) (0.18) (0.25) D(Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005(t-1))
-0.044 -0.043 -0.019 -0.019
(0.32) (0.32) (0.13) (0.14) D(Ln Precio Novillo(t-1)
-0.409 -0.404
(3.87)*** (3.77)*** ect1 -1.219 -1.229 -1.340 -1.340 -1.105 -1.113
(5.88)*** (5.91)*** (6.19)*** (6.15)*** (4.77)*** (4.77)*** D(Ln Precio Gasoil(t-1))
0.054 0.080 0.117
(0.50) (0.71) (0.97) D(Ln Precio Maiz(t-1))
-0.063 -0.042
(0.66) (0.43) Constant 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.002 0.006 0.005
(0.13) (0.03) (0.25) (0.12) (0.34) (0.26) Observations 40 40 40 40 45 45
R-squared 0.62 0.63 0.58 0.58 0.44 0.45 R-Cuadrado
Adj 0.566 0.563 0.527 0.520 0.404 0.396
D-W 1.765 1.780 1.647 1.607 1.923 1.833 P-Value Wald
Test 0.444 0.491 0.984 0.992
Elasticidades de Corto Plazo para Trigo(Usando Eq3, Eq4 y Eq 5)
(1) (2) Ln(Area
Sembrada Maiz)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Maiz)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Maiz)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Maiz) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) 0.109 0.079 0.158 0.123
(1.84)* (1.09) (3.04)*** (1.97)* Ln Area Sembrada Maiz(t-1) 0.791 0.764 0.623 0.591
(9.41)*** (8.30)*** (7.65)*** (6.76)*** lnpgasoil1 -0.045 -0.052
(0.73) (1.03) Inflacion(t-1) -0.000 -0.000
(4.34)*** (4.37)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005
Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994
Constant 1.171 1.482 2.321 2.695
(1.75)* (1.86)* (3.70)*** (3.72)*** Observations 45 45 44 44
R-squared 0.72 0.72 0.81 0.81 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.708 0.704 0.795 0.795
D-W 1.533 1.530 1.411 1.420 Elasticidad Maiz-Maiz 0.520 0.334 0.420 0.300
P-Value ADF test Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1960-1995 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1996-2005
P-Value Wald Test Soja
Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Maiz
(3) (4) Ln(Area
Sembrada Maiz)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Maiz)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Maiz)
Ln(Area Sembrada
Maiz) Ln Precio Maiz(t-1) 0.377 0.315 0.491 0.448
(3.95)*** (3.24)*** (7.54)*** (6.63)*** Ln Area Sembrada Maiz(t-1) 0.840 0.769 0.616 0.582
(10.28)*** (8.88)*** (9.78)*** (9.11)*** lnpgasoil1 -0.129 -0.078
(1.96)* (1.76)* Inflacion(t-1) -0.000 -0.000
(6.84)*** (6.64)*** Ln Precio Soja 1995-2005 -0.262 -0.247 -0.315 -0.304
(3.32)*** (3.24)*** (6.01)*** (5.92)*** Ln Precio Soja 1960-1994 -0.267 -0.261 -0.312 -0.307
(3.46)*** (3.51)*** (6.09)*** (6.15)*** Constant 0.958 1.640 2.531 2.876
(1.49) (2.31)** (5.26)*** (5.68)*** Observations 40 40 40 40
R-squared 0.80 0.82 0.92 0.92 R-Cuadrado Adj 0.778 0.794 0.904 0.909
D-W 1.763 1.863 1.880 1.924 Elasticidad Maiz-Maiz 2.358 2.358 1.278 1.073
P-Value ADF test Residuales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1960-1995 -1.638 -1.638 -0.821 -0.728 Elasticidad Maiz-Soja 1996-2005 -1.673 -1.131 -0.813 -0.813
P-Value Wald Test Soja 0.432 0.084 0.522 0.642
Elasticidades de Largo Plazo para Maiz
(3) (4) DLn(Area
Sembrada Maiz) DLn(Area
Sembrada Maiz) DLn(Area
Sembrada Maiz) DLn(Area
Sembrada Maiz) D(Ln Precio Maiz(t-1))
0.319 0.352 0.395 0.417
(3.48)*** (3.19)*** (7.24)*** (7.00)*** ddumpsoja6095 -0.259 -0.256 -0.324 -0.322
(3.75)*** (3.48)*** (7.53)*** (7.11)*** ddumpsoja9506 -0.169 -0.212 -0.241 -0.267
(1.25) (1.37) (2.95)*** (3.02)*** dlnpgasoil1 -0.071 -0.025
(0.80) (0.47) ect1 -1.217 -1.118 -1.024 -0.970
(4.27)*** (3.28)*** (6.66)*** (5.91)*** D(Ln Inflacion(t-
1)) -0.000 -0.000
(9.46)*** (9.04)*** Constant 0.000 0.001 -0.000 0.000
(0.03) (0.05) (0.05) (0.01) Observations 39 39 39 39
R-squared 0.48 0.39 0.82 0.79 Adj-R2 0.401 0.314 0.781 0.753
P-Value Wald Test Soja
0.521 0.784 0.323 0.542
Elasticidades de Corto Plazo para Maiz(Usando Eq 3 y 4)
